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Shes Not Impressed posted:His work is probably assigned in every intro to IR class in the US for undergraduates. Seems bad! But I guess then again we are a country that hands out a Henry Kissinger award, so I guess it makes sense in a way.
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Nov 17, 2022 22:07
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He's a brain-dead moron that tricked a lot of people into thinking he had a clue. But he doesn't. Everything he says and does is about justifying his pre-conceived conclusions, no matter how blatantly wrong they are.
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Nov 17, 2022 22:08
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Read the ending of that article it is very funny. "and another thing: I didn't talk to Orban. please dont put in the article that i talked to Orban"
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Nov 17, 2022 22:11
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He's not quite that popular in Europe, but I have seen him referred to as a "reasonable" authority regularly, by people who tried to blame everyone but Russia in order to continue doing business with them. So mostly intellectuals who realize a genocidal dictatorship is actually bad, therefore Russia can't be one and if it is, that's the fault of the US/NATO. Mearsheimer is the perfect source because you can point to "smart experts" who've always said America bad, respecting spheres of influence good (as long as we belong to the right sphere and only lesser nations belong to the other spheres).
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Nov 17, 2022 22:17
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The conflict has splashed with full force to a small Russian town near Finnish border now: https://zona.media/news/2022/11/17/62 quote:Biology teacher Galina Kutsina from Lyceum No. 1 in the city of Kostomuksha in Karelia forced a seventh grader who came to school in a hoodie with an appliqué in the colors of the American flag to sit through the entire lesson facing the wall, the student's father Alexei Kulikov told Mediazona. It's an interesting detail that the teacher comes from the same city where Mr. and Mrs. Zelenskyy were born and age wise it's not out of question that she would have taught young Volodimir at some point! Not likely, but maybe Mr. President would also have memories of her...
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Nov 17, 2022 22:24
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://archive.ph/2022.11.17-162721/https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/john-mearsheimer-on-putins-ambitions-after-nine-months-of-war Jesus Christ he's still at it lol quote:There’s no evidence that he was interested in conquering those four oblasts. The war started on February 24th. On February 21st, he gave a famous speech—this is three days before the war started—where he recognized the two oblasts in the Donbas. This is Donetsk and Lugansk. He recognized them as independent republics. So he was not interested in conquering that territory. It's literally the same process he used to annex Crimea
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Nov 17, 2022 22:59
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Nenonen posted:It's not like he's ever going to leave Russia, nor will Russia extradite him. He's currently in Ukraine. At least according to his wife.
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Nov 17, 2022 23:01
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Paladinus posted:He's currently in Ukraine. At least according to his wife. Where, in Lviv? If he's in the Russian controlled parts then he's as good as in Russia. And he's not going anywhere near the front lines, no matter what he says.
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Nov 17, 2022 23:07
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Paladinus posted:He's currently in Ukraine. At least according to his wife. It says a lot if even Girkin's own wife doesn't recognize the annexations.
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Nov 17, 2022 23:11
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Nenonen posted:Where, in Lviv? If he's in the Russian controlled parts then he's as good as in Russia. And he's not going anywhere near the front lines, no matter what he says. Well, he may reconsider next year then, if the front lines come to him 
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Nov 17, 2022 23:21
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Paladinus posted:He's currently in Ukraine. At least according to his wife. ... I wonder if she changed her name to Strelkova upon marriage.....
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Nov 17, 2022 23:23
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Nov 18, 2022 01:28
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Antigravitas posted:You are underselling what a brutal slaughter that interview is. It is incredibly revealing and Mearsheimer's attempts to deflect from his visit to Hungary are so suspicious Chotiner pounces immediately. You don't dangle that sort of thing in front of a journalist and not expect them to start prying. quote:Would Munich be an example of a leader lying? Don't miss out on this interview. It's sad to see someone just torch their legacy like this. The guy has a lot of weight even now in IR, he could come up with some bullshit on how Putin is a black swan event and it would at least keep him in the game but he is 100% committed to his wrong interpretation of events. I'm curious what inspired him to do the Hungary visit if he's so ashamed of it and of Orban. There's Hungarian magazine that did a glowingly approving write up of the speech Mearsheimer gave. Of note: Mearsheimer characterized NATO training post-2014 as 'doubling down on the offensive', and compared Ukraine getting Javelins to the Cuban Missile Crisis. Also that 'Mearsheimer opined that the basic objective of Hungary is to be able to avoid having to choose sides in the conflict in any meaningful way—militarily, economically, or ideologically.' Basically caring about anything makes you a loving idiot in Mearsheimers view.
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Nov 18, 2022 01:57
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https://twitter.com/evghenia_v/status/1593403018795524098
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Nov 18, 2022 02:09
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I guess we're all going to have to get Telegram soon for war updates; Twitter's dying, Cloud.
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Nov 18, 2022 02:16
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Wrong thread. Sorry about that.
Mr. Apollo fucked around with this message at 07:10 on Nov 18, 2022 |
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Nov 18, 2022 04:41
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:This true for stuff like Patriot but IRIS-T is supposed to use cheaper and, already mass produced, missiles which is why its a big deal that Ukraine is deploying them now. The IRIS-T that Ukraine got is the medium ranged SLM version in production due to an Egyptian order. The SLM version has a 40 km radius, 20 km altitude range. The SLM version is substantially different from the aircraft version or the Swedish ground launched short ranged SLS version (10 km radius, 5km altitude for the Swedish ground version) and hardly mass produced. A Swedish comment, for what it's worth, on IRIS-T, made in October, estimated that Diehl Defence made around 20 missiles per month. German posters here might have a better picture. In general it seems that european arms industries still operates in peace time mode, for example increased ammunition production of Germany's Rheinmetall comes from buying up a Spanish company not any increased German production. https://twitter.com/KampfmitKette/status/1592834119125590016/photo/1 Link to Rheimetall presentation: https://ir.rheinmetall.com/download/companies/rheinmetall/Presentations/221116_Rheinmetall_CMD_2022_CEO.pdf
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Nov 18, 2022 04:43
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Mearsheimer's theory is very simple and is really just a modern distillation of the oldest foreign policy theories going back to Thucydides. "The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." However, he insists against all reason and evidence that Russia is strong and Ukraine and the EU are weak. And thus his policy proposals are nonsense. By the logic of his own theories the US and NATO allies in Europe are so much stronger than Russia that they're fully justified in carving out pieces of the former Soviet Union and Russia should just suck it up and try to align with them.
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Nov 18, 2022 04:55
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Kallikaa posted:great info on IRIS-T Yeah I misremembered on the details of which system has lots of missiles my bad. Its apparently NASAMS, not IRIS-T, that uses the common missiles like AMRAAM or Sidewinders that there are in high supply.
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Nov 18, 2022 05:12
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Charlz Guybon posted:Mearsheimer's theory is very simple and is really just a modern distillation of the oldest foreign policy theories going back to Thucydides. "The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." Like Chomsky, he excuses pretty much any evil by non-US/NATO/EU powers as being somehow inevitable and just the way things are, but then any bad moves by the US are proof that the US is immoral and has no right to stop aforementioned evils by other powers.
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Nov 18, 2022 05:17
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Mr. Apollo posted:B.C. Liberals are changing their name to B.C. United War In Ukraine: Canada Edition? thekeeshman posted:Like Chomsky, he excuses pretty much any evil by non-US/NATO/EU powers as being somehow inevitable and just the way things are, but then any bad moves by the US are proof that the US is immoral and has no right to stop aforementioned evils by other powers. It's just 'Might Is Right, but only Might I Like'.
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Nov 18, 2022 05:58
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://archive.ph/2022.11.17-162721/https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/john-mearsheimer-on-putins-ambitions-after-nine-months-of-war What’s he so worried about regarding Hungary? He really doesn’t want to talk about it. Mr. Apollo posted:B.C. Liberals are changing their name to B.C. United Sounds like a football team. “And at half time, B.C United is 0-3 down against Mobiks Kazan.”
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Nov 18, 2022 07:02
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He's best buddies with Orban apparently, and pulling on that thread could reveal that he has some ulterior motives. I would absolutely not be surprised if Mearsheimer could be goaded into going all-in on Culture War bullshit in an interview on IR. Talking about Hungary is such dangerous territory because it exposes that his stance, that he's just rationally explaining Putin with Facts and Logic, may not be very true at all. He has the good sense to know it's dangerous territory, but any decent journalist will start prying when someone is trying to conceal something.
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Nov 18, 2022 09:04
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thekeeshman posted:Like Chomsky, he excuses pretty much any evil by non-US/NATO/EU powers as being somehow inevitable and just the way things are, but then any bad moves by the US are proof that the US is immoral and has no right to stop aforementioned evils by other powers. I think Chomsky and Mearsheimer are both examples of a common phenomenon of people assuming a public figure is a "weathervane" because what they're saying points "into the wind" at the moment. Then the wind changes, but the thing you're looking at keeps pointing in the same direction, because it's either rusted in place or never had any capacity to swivel in the first place.
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Nov 18, 2022 09:52
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Economists have predited nine of the last five recessions, and Mearsheimer has predicted twenty of the last five wars. e: the astonishing confusion here is that in one sense he's absolutely right: Russia has been very open and clear in its published policy and official statements what its understanding of the world and foreign policy objectives are. Has been for twenty years. It's what Eastern Europe has been banging the drum on - they bother to read these documents. That doesn't mean that Putin personally doesn't lie constantly. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 10:18 on Nov 18, 2022 |
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Nov 18, 2022 10:12
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Beefeater1980 posted:Sounds like a football team. “And at half time, B.C United is 0-3 down against Mobiks Kazan.”  To continue on sports, the International Paralympic Committee IPC has suspended the national committees of Russia and Belarus. Their athletes were not allowed to participate in the 2022 Beijing paralympics either. This is of course because of the war, but probably also because Russia has gained so many new young fit amputees this year that it wouldn't be fair for others. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 18, 2022 10:29
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It’s so frustrating to read all this hand waving from Mearsheimer. The idea that we can’t pass judgment about former KGB agent Putin’s actions unless we know his exact thoughts isn’t helpful analysis, it simply makes Mearsheimer’s theories unfalsifiable. His answers read to me as the squealing of an academic that refuses to admit they made a wrong call. According to him, rather than analyze all the available information to make a foreign policy decision we must endlessly, uselessly, speculate about the state of mind of other world leaders while they do as they please. To act before the archives open in 50 years would be imprudent.
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Nov 18, 2022 10:47
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Swedish officials have confirmed that they have found physical signs of explosives at the Nord Stream. It's not specified but this might mean scorched bits of metal with chemical residue. Sabotage was already the prevailing theory based on other signs. Given how for example the MH17 investigation went, maybe Bellingcat will soon reveal the names and passport numbers and phone records of the Russian agents who did it and then somewhere in 2028 they are sentenced absent in the Hague.
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Nov 18, 2022 10:59
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Cocoa Ninja posted:It’s so frustrating to read all this hand waving from Mearsheimer. The idea that we can’t pass judgment about former KGB agent Putin’s actions unless we know his exact thoughts isn’t helpful analysis, it simply makes Mearsheimer’s theories unfalsifiable. His answers read to me as the squealing of an academic that refuses to admit they made a wrong call. It's weird that the archives are seen as some sort of holy grail of information rather than just what the hell they wanted to be known eventually.
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Nov 18, 2022 11:03
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There is a serious insinuation in that piece that there is something clearly inappropriate going on with Mearsheimer's proximity to the subject he's been claiming to be objective about. This is not a new claim wrt Mearsheimer, but the ending of that piece where he clearly tries to flee the interview after Chotiner shows that he is aware of the Orban meeting makes it clear that there's absolutely something to those rumors. Trying to retroactively make the conversation off the record is a hilarious act of desperation.
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Nov 18, 2022 11:10
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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updatesquote:Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree changing the composition of the Russian Presidential Council for Civil Society and Human Rights (HRC) on November 17.[5] The decree notably expels four Russian human rights activists, including Ekaterina Vinokurova, who wrote a piece criticizing the rise of “patriotic” Telegram channels and nationalist milbloggers who have cornered the information space against opposition outlets who deviate from the predominant Kremlin line of the war in Ukraine.[6] Russian media previously reported that Vinokurova and other members of the HRC appealed to the Russian Investigative Committee to look into the widely circulated video of the execution of a former Wagner Group fighter who reportedly defected to Ukraine.[7] Putin’s new appointees to the HRC include a slate of Russian political and proxy members and notably Sasha Kots, a prominent milblogger and war correspondent who has been heavily involved in covering Russian operations in Ukraine.[8] Kots most recently called for Russia to maintain massive missile strikes against critical Ukrainian infrastructure on November 17.[9] This decree likely represents the Kremlin’s wider effort to stifle domestic civil opposition by continuing to platform prominent voices in the information space that propagate the Kremlin’s line on the war in Ukraine. This sounds really good and logical. The job of the human rights council is to find new ways in which to erode human rights, not to support them!
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Nov 18, 2022 11:13
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A shocking drone video has surfaced of dead Russian soldiers who tried to surrender. An earlier video filmed on a phone shows how they lay down on the ground one by one, as Ukrainian soldiers ask them about their commanding officers, etc., until one Russian soldier opens fire on the Ukrainian soldier filming, seriously injuring him. What happened between the videos is not clear, but it looks like Russian soldiers were executed in revenge. Don't think there's yet any confirmation of when and where the video's been filmed. Neither side commented on it officially yet either.
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Nov 18, 2022 11:21
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Unless the Ukrainian Army/Government can make some major changes on how Russians view surrendering to Ukrainians these war crimes are only going to increase in scale and intensity. There was a recent podcast from the Team House with the leader of Mozart group https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/from-marsoc-to-the-mozart-group-andrew-milburn-ep-174/id1492797340?i=1000585761826, and he mentions this in saying that one of the big reasons we have not seen more or mass surrending is due to the fact that treatment from both sides towards POWs is becoming more brutal. Incidentally he also mentions that they refuse to train units who show the trainers videos or pictures of mistreatment of POWs... It is a long podcast with them going down a lot of non Ukrainian related tangents, but an interesting one nonetheless from someone who has been on the frontlines there for most of the conflict.
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Nov 18, 2022 11:40
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Paladinus posted:A shocking drone video has surfaced of dead Russian soldiers who tried to surrender. An earlier video filmed on a phone shows how they lay down on the ground one by one, as Ukrainian soldiers ask them about their commanding officers, etc., until one Russian soldier opens fire on the Ukrainian soldier filming, seriously injuring him. What happened between the videos is not clear, but it looks like Russian soldiers were executed in revenge. They were talking about that in the Worllld War Threead, that might not be a war crime due to the prisoners committing Perfidy (which IS a war crime).  I'm not going to watch the footage either way.
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Nov 18, 2022 12:06
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Just Another Lurker posted:They were talking about that in the Worllld War Threead, that might not be a war crime due to the prisoners committing Perfidy (which IS a war crime). As I said, not clear what happened between the videos, but considering that apart from the one soldiers who actually opened fire, the rest appear to have remained on the ground, and were shown dead in the same position, I think at the very least not all of them were perfidious in this case.
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Nov 18, 2022 12:29
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Paladinus posted:As I said, not clear what happened between the videos, but considering that apart from the one soldiers who actually opened fire, the rest appear to have remained on the ground, and were shown dead in the same position, I think at the very least not all of them were perfidious in this case. The victims of perfidy are not the guys on the other side that you try to ambush. It's the guys on your own side that are legitimately trying to surrender, becuase the enemy can no longer trust them and will gun down the whole group.
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Nov 18, 2022 12:39
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Special tents for special military operation https://mobile.twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1593564758267019266 Imagine sleeping in that cling film contraption when it's freezing.
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Nov 18, 2022 12:47
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Makes you wonder how they keep their cell phones charged.
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Nov 18, 2022 12:55
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A while ago there were a bunch of posts about new HIMARS munitions that contain thousands of steel balls. Here's a Russian mechanic giving his assessment of how effective these things are: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1593573406829678593 The anti-infantry use for these rockets was clear from the design, but it didn't occur to me that any vehicle caught in the blast isn't just damaged, but literally every single component is comprehensively destroyed. Can't salvage a single thing. Chalks fucked around with this message at 13:10 on Nov 18, 2022 |
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Nov 18, 2022 13:08
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They punch wholes in the loving trucks frame 
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