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Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

skylined! posted:

Can't imagine anyone who isn't a completely reddit-brained redpilled psychopath signed that dumb thing.

Yeah uh is there nobody there on a work visa

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FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Cru Jones posted:

I don’t understand why everyone keeps talking about the debt and billion dollar interest payments. the rules don’t apply to the wealthy the same as us.

The banks will 100% restructure or forgive that debt in hopes of getting more business from Elon in the future. Twitter is not taking him down, sorry.
Bingo

They were already looking to sell off the debt at a discount within like 5 days of him taking charge of Twitter

Here’s the thing though- a lot of his wealth is tied to Tesla stock, which has taken a big hit, and I think that is way worse for him than what is happening with Twitter

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

Cru Jones posted:

I don’t understand why everyone keeps talking about the debt and billion dollar interest payments. the rules don’t apply to the wealthy the same as us.

The banks will 100% restructure or forgive that debt in hopes of getting more business from Elon in the future. Twitter is not taking him down, sorry.

Umm.... why would you think this? I'd be shocked if there was ever an instance where this has happened to the tune of $1B unless they got the money through some other source (e.g. government reimbursement). Or probably if the individual had extremely close connections with the CEO/board of directors.

Also, I don't think anyone thinks this will "take Musk down". He'll still be rich, even if he loses all of the money he used to buy Twitter with.

Kalit fucked around with this message at 15:45 on Nov 18, 2022

Morrow
Oct 31, 2010

skylined! posted:

Can't imagine anyone who isn't a completely reddit-brained redpilled psychopath signed that dumb thing. Even the most desperate workers would probably take 3 months' severance to jettison out of the burning ship.

Some folks have their visas tied to their employment.

BonoMan
Feb 20, 2002

Jade Ear Joe

Kalit posted:

Umm.... why would you think this? I'd be shocked if there was ever an instance where this has happened to the tune of $1B unless they got the money through some other source (e.g. government reimbursement). Or probably if the individual had extremely close connections with the CEO/board of directors.

Also, I don't think anyone thinks this will "take Musk down". He'll still be rich, even if he loses all of the money he used to buy Twitter with.

Yeah I don't know what that poster is talking about. The banks that are owed the money are not going to just forgive the debt to be in business with Elon because... That business is obviously bad for them.

Now what has been floating around is that all these groups that lent him money for the deal are ok burning money because they think they'll be in Elon's good graces for the NEXT big thing which will surellllly be a big one.


But that's not the same as the banks owed the old debt. They want their ducking money.

skylined!
Apr 6, 2012

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

Morrow posted:

Some folks have their visas tied to their employment.

Ya just read that in Mike Isaac's reporting. That.. sucks, I think.

https://twitter.com/MikeIsaac/status/1593464458394812417?s=20&t=wRIl3nmm302HkNlQ1bqSOA

quote:

People who decided to stay still believed in Twitter’s mission of giving people a voice or had visas tied to their jobs or other personal reasons, two people said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/17/technology/twitter-elon-musk-ftc.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo

Morrow posted:

Some folks have their visas tied to their employment.

If a significant number of the stayers are such, then the numbers are even worse. I can imagine there's some other companies willing to sponsor in order to poach off twitter.

Papercut
Aug 24, 2005

FlamingLiberal posted:

Bingo

They were already looking to sell off the debt at a discount within like 5 days of him taking charge of Twitter

Here’s the thing though- a lot of his wealth is tied to Tesla stock, which has taken a big hit, and I think that is way worse for him than what is happening with Twitter

They're trying to sell off the debt to recoup their investments, that flies in the face of any idea that they're just gonna forgive the debt.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Papercut posted:

They're trying to sell off the debt to recoup their investments, that flies in the face of any idea that they're just gonna forgive the debt.
If you’re selling it at 60 cents to the dollar you are not very confident that you see that money again

Papercut
Aug 24, 2005

FlamingLiberal posted:

If you’re selling it at 60 cents to the dollar you are not very confident that you see that money again

They didn't immediately try to sell it for 60 cents on the dollar though. They got caught holding the bag because Elon destroyed things faster than they could ever imagine. That's not an indication that they're just gonna eat a 44 billion loss to stay in Elon's good graces

lobster shirt
Jun 14, 2021

does musk owe the billion dollars in interest payments, or does twitter owe it? very important distinction, i would imagine twitter (a company currently being ruined at warp speed) has debt that would be comparatively easy to discharge, musk himself not so much. if i remember right, musk originally was going to personally finance his part of the acquisition but he was able to find enough investors such that he ended up not needing to take on any debt.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

lobster shirt posted:

does musk owe the billion dollars in interest payments, or does twitter owe it? very important distinction, i would imagine twitter (a company currently being ruined at warp speed) has debt that would be comparatively easy to discharge, musk himself not so much. if i remember right, musk originally was going to personally finance his part of the acquisition but he was able to find enough investors such that he ended up not needing to take on any debt.

Twitter owes it. It was a relatively standard leveraged buyout after you get past the Delaware clown show

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

FlamingLiberal posted:

If you’re selling it at 60 cents to the dollar you are not very confident that you see that money again

FYI, that's the lowest bid that was offered, not what the debt holders were soliciting for: https://www.marketplace.org/2022/11/11/banks-that-helped-finance-musks-twitter-purchase-field-low-bids-for-debt/

quote:

He borrowed $13 billion of it to help foot the bill, and Bloomberg News is reporting that the banks that lent him that money are now trying to offload those loans. They’ve reportedly received offers for as little as 60 cents on the dollar.

Kalit fucked around with this message at 16:38 on Nov 18, 2022

Morrow
Oct 31, 2010
Elon won't go bankrupt over this, and he was eventually going to lose his "world's richest man" status as Tesla is massively overvalued, but the real damage will be to his reputation as a tech genius. His rockets explode, his cars explode, and now twitter is exploding.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
A paywall may be in place for this article, but this is what I was able to find about how Musk financed the Twitter deal.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...336b_story.html

quote:

What’s the easiest way to buy something? With other people’s money. That’s the key to almost all of the leveraged buyouts (LBOs) that have dominated mergers and acquisitions for a generation. Elon Musk’s $44 billion planned takeover of Twitter has had many twists and turns, but after spending months trying to get out of the deal, the billionaire head of Tesla Inc. said he is once again moving forward with the acquisition, which could close as soon as late October. While his take-private of Twitter is an LBO, it differs from most in several important respects.

1. What’s different about Musk’s approach?

Musk is playing the role of the private equity firm in this buyout. He’s on the hook to provide about $33.5 billion in equity, or about 72% of the total $46.5 billion in financing, with the remainder coming from a debt package provided by big Wall Street banks. Included in that equity contribution, Musk already owns more than 73 million shares, which are worth about $4 billion at the $54.20 purchase price. A group of 19 investors including billionaire Larry Ellison agreed to cover another $7.1 billion of Musk’s $33.5 billion share. If Musk’s current stake in Twitter is excluded, his proposed purchase would be the fourth-largest deal in which a public company was bought and taken private.

2. What’s a leveraged buyout?

LBOs are acquisitions where debt plays a crucial role. The basic idea is to buy a company through a combination of equity and new debt. But the key is that the acquirer, most commonly a private equity firm, doesn’t borrow the money -- the target company does. LBOs limit the downside for the buyer: If things go wrong, the company goes bankrupt, not the buyer. LBOs also increase the buyers’ upside because they can acquire bigger companies than they otherwise could afford.

3. How much leverage is there in most LBOs?

Private equity firms typically try to put in as little equity as possible, to increase their potential return. But the limiting factor is usually how much debt the target company can service without debt payments dragging it down. The ratio of equity is typically around 45% to 50% of the deal. The word “leveraged” refers to a special metric that compares the amount of debt to a company’s earnings, and that ratio is typically high in these transactions. The upper bound is roughly 6 times, but that can go higher depending on the deal.

4. Where are the equity commitments coming from?

Of the $7.1 billion being kicked in to help Musk, about $5.2 billion is from 18 equity partners who joined the deal; the other $1.9 billion will be generated by Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal Al Saud rolling over his current Twitter stake, according to a filing on May 5. An increase in the equity component helped replace initial plans to use $12.5 billion in loan commitments backed by Tesla stock pledged by Musk in what’s known as a margin loan. Musk is worth more than $200 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, but most of that is not liquid. To raise more cash to fund his equity commitment, he could sell assets, including more Tesla shares. He could find more equity partners. He also could sell preferred equity in Twitter. That’s a special type of stock that essentially gives the holders additional benefits, such as hefty annual dividends. Musk had held discussions to potentially raise more capital from investors such as Apollo Global Management Inc. and Sixth Street Partners earlier this year, but those firms abandoned the talks months ago, around the time Musk backtracked from the deal.

5. How much debt would be added to Twitter’s balance sheet?

About $13 billion, the amount banks have committed to lend Twitter to carry out its side of the deal. Twitter’s credit rating is already below investment grade, so this new debt would come in the form of junk bonds and leveraged loans. As is normal in LBOs, the intention was for the banks to then sell that risk in the form of longer-term debt to outside investors, but the banks are on the hook and would have to cough up the money if anything goes wrong. Based on the structure laid out in public filings, the commitments would likely be replaced by $6.5 billion of leveraged loans, $3 billion of secured junk bonds and $3 billion of unsecured junk bonds. The banks also provided $500 million of a special type of loan called a revolving credit facility that Twitter will be able to borrow from and pay back over the life of the loan.

6. Could the debt financing fall through?

Almost certainly not. The debt financing does present a headache -- but for the banks, not for Musk. Led by Morgan Stanley, seven banks underwrote the debt, meaning they are on the hook to provide the cash, period. If banks do fund the debt, they could potentially syndicate the bonds and loans to investors at a later date. But credit conditions have worsened since banks committed to the debt in April, meaning they are facing losses of more than $500 million on the debt.

7. What debt does Twitter have now?

Twitter has already tapped the junk bond market and has two outstanding bonds for about $1.7 billion total, plus some convertible notes. Twitter is likely to pay off existing debt as part of the transaction. If the LBO happens, Twitter will have billions of dollars more in debt on its balance sheet. CreditSights, a credit research firm, sees total leverage increasing to a ratio of 9 times a measure of earnings, up from 3.7 times previously, according to a report published on April 25.

8. What does this deal mean for Twitter’s finances?


The increased debt load means it will have little margin for error going forward. Private equity firms typically load up a company with debt, slash costs and try to boost revenues. Earnings have to grow rapidly so the company can afford its high interest payments and eventually pay back debt. Some analysts are projecting that the deal will leave Twitter highly indebted compared to its projected earnings, which could mean pain if the company can’t grow fast enough. Annual interest expense could approach $1.2 billion, compared to less than $100 million before Musk’s buyout.

Musk is not going to end up on the street without a home, but he has had to take on a lot more exposure and put more on the table than a wealthy person usually would in order to take over Twitter. He only has himself to blame.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
His rockets actually work very well. The important point we need to make is that he has almost nothing to do with this. The rockets work because of SpaceX's engineering teams and despite his leadership, which he has been thoroughly proving is not worth very much lately

Tesla could probably also work well, if they could get out from under his obsession with poorly instrumented self-driving and tendency to barge into the factory floor and demand they remove essential safety precautions

Angry_Ed
Mar 30, 2010




Grimey Drawer

Morrow posted:

Elon won't go bankrupt over this, and he was eventually going to lose his "world's richest man" status as Tesla is massively overvalued, but the real damage will be to his reputation as a tech genius. His rockets explode, his cars explode, and now twitter is exploding.

Also his BS in Physics is just plain BS and he doesn't have a PhD according to this

https://twitter.com/capitolhunters/status/1593307541932474368

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



haveblue posted:

His rockets actually work very well. The important point we need to make is that he has almost nothing to do with this. The rockets work because of SpaceX's engineering teams and despite his leadership, which he has been thoroughly proving is not worth very much lately

Tesla could probably also work well, if they could get out from under his obsession with poorly instrumented self-driving and tendency to barge into the factory floor and demand they remove essential safety precautions
This was discussed on the most recent Chapo, but once the big auto companies start putting out electric vehicles (and they will be cheaper than Teslas) on a regular basis, Tesla is hosed

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
This is probably a better topic in AI or something, but I've always wondered what the Tesla ownership experience was like. Are the dealers nice? Is customer service good?

Tesla seems to have a very enviable headstart on making electric cars work and they have their supercharger network, but I imagine all of those technical advantages could get eaten away pretty quickly. GM and the German manufacturers already seem to have some good models in place. (I drove a Bolt. It was nice and I'd definitely own one now that they fixed the huge battery issue.)

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land




FlamingLiberal posted:

This was discussed on the most recent Chapo, but once the big auto companies start putting out electric vehicles (and they will be cheaper than Teslas) on a regular basis, Tesla is hosed

How far away is Big Auto from actually pumping out electric cars on a Tesla scale?

bird food bathtub
Aug 9, 2003

College Slice

FlamingLiberal posted:

This was discussed on the most recent Chapo, but once the big auto companies start putting out electric vehicles (and they will be cheaper than Teslas) on a regular basis, Tesla is hosed

My understanding is that Tesla was supposed to be a battery/power train manufacturer so they could jump the gun on the demand for those when the big boys in auto manufacturing caught on and finally shifted away from internal combustion. The cars were supposed to be the Google Fiber of electric cars; a poke in the eye to established, moribund manufacturers that had no incentive to switch. Then Musk had to Musk it up and let his god complex run the show so we got real bangers like CYBERTRUCK.

Fair chance I'm wrong, this is all from memory.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

How far away is Big Auto from actually pumping out electric cars on a Tesla scale?

A bunch of them are coming to market in the next year or two with fairly heavy production schedules I thought. Ohio is looking to become the factory center for EVs.

skylined!
Apr 6, 2012

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

FlamingLiberal posted:

This was discussed on the most recent Chapo, but once the big auto companies start putting out electric vehicles (and they will be cheaper than Teslas) on a regular basis, Tesla is hosed

It's already happening. A bunch of the big names have pretty affordable EVs for the 2023 purchasing year and is probably the #1 reason Tesla's stock has dropped so much. In 5 years it's going to be worth a fraction of a fraction of what it is today because the big manufacturers won't need to charge you $50k for an EV with pointless touchscreens, trim that falls off/fails right off the factory floor, proprietary chargers and exploding batteries.

What the hell good is a $50k tesla you are waitlisted for to consumers when GM or Toyota can sell you an EV for $30k, without exploding batteries, with quality trim, etc? The twitter purchase only exacerbates its freefall.

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

How far away is Big Auto from actually pumping out electric cars on a Tesla scale?

Tesla estimates it will produce 2mil EV cars in 2023. Ford alone estimates it will produce 600k EVs including trucks which Tesla has famously... not delivered on. Tesla is really on the precipice of being completely eclipsed by the rest of the market in both price and availability, and their only value add - self-drive - is worthless.

skylined! fucked around with this message at 17:01 on Nov 18, 2022

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

How far away is Big Auto from actually pumping out electric cars on a Tesla scale?

If GM's prediction on their EVs being as profitable as their gas powered cars by 2025 is correct, it'll be extremely fast.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



FlamingLiberal posted:

This was discussed on the most recent Chapo, but once the big auto companies start putting out electric vehicles (and they will be cheaper than Teslas) on a regular basis, Tesla is hosed

Hell, as a Canadian goon who's household switched to an electric vehicle last year, Tesla wasn't even an option for us (nearest Tesla dealer was over 8 hours away if we wanted to stay in Canada to buy it or ever needed to get it serviced) meanwhile most of the regular dealerships had at least 1 EV model that was a fraction of Tesla's cost.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
The big manufacturers also won't have genius ideas like "the dashboard is out of your view on a big tablet" or "there is no mechanical way to open the rear doors in an emergency"

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

How far away is Big Auto from actually pumping out electric cars on a Tesla scale?

https://dailyprogress.com/news/nati...3b392adebb.html

GM is planning to have the capacity to build (and make a pre-tax profit from) 1 million EVs a year by the end of 2025.

Tesla is building up capacity too. In 2021, they built around 930,000 EVs.

https://insideevs.com/news/602725/tesla-3-million-cars-prduced-2-million-run-rate-2022/

I might be falling for sales puffery, but I think Big Auto is capable of catching up very quickly. It's more about whether its investors really want to.

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

Eric Cantonese posted:

I might be falling for sales puffery, but I think Big Auto is capable of catching up very quickly. It's more about whether its investors really want to.

I think the bigger question is how much the federal government continues to subsidize costs while production costs are still higher than gas powered cars. Investors probably only care about profits, not the methodology of the profit.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



I believe that since those tax credits for EVs passed a lot of companies ramped up their EV production capacity, or announced that they are doing it soon

Madkal
Feb 11, 2008

Fallen Rib
I live a province (Canadian here) where Tesla's are ubiquitous as gently caress. The people driving them aren't doing it because they are electric but because it's kind of a status symbol. When BMW or Mercs or whatever start making electric cars as quickly and as expensive as Tesla's then I can see them taking a hot here. I don't think Tesla is worrying about the coming of Nissan Leafs.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Madkal posted:

I live a province (Canadian here) where Tesla's are ubiquitous as gently caress. The people driving them aren't doing it because they are electric but because it's kind of a status symbol. When BMW or Mercs or whatever start making electric cars as quickly and as expensive as Tesla's then I can see them taking a hot here. I don't think Tesla is worrying about the coming of Nissan Leafs.

I've been wondering about their brand prestige. Are Teslas really seen as a baller vehicle now? I might be on the wrong parts of the internet, but the lackluster build quality and bad ergonomics seem close to common knowledge now.

Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 17:54 on Nov 18, 2022

Xombie
May 22, 2004

Soul Thrashing
Black Sorcery
Yeah Teslas are the new BMW for upper middle class now. I see them everywhere in the suburbs.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Madkal posted:

I live a province (Canadian here) where Tesla's are ubiquitous as gently caress. The people driving them aren't doing it because they are electric but because it's kind of a status symbol. When BMW or Mercs or whatever start making electric cars as quickly and as expensive as Tesla's then I can see them taking a hot here. I don't think Tesla is worrying about the coming of Nissan Leafs.

It's also why Tesla was never going to change the world. They never wanted to make an EV accessible to the middle and working class.

Grater
Jul 11, 2001
Might seem like a nice guy, but cross me once...
Truth. I live in suburban MN, Wayzata school district. Every third house on my street has one of them and a bmw or a giant bro-dozer.

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.
Besides the EV trucks (esp. F150E), what's really going to eat into Tesla is their lack of a crossover body (that isn't $100k). Nissan, VW, and Hyundai all have good offerings coming up/here. Not sure about other places but that type makes up most of the traffic around here.

Musk's net worth is on borrowed time.

Gerund
Sep 12, 2007

He push a man


Eric Cantonese posted:

I've been wondering about their brand prestige. Are Teslas really seen as a baller vehicle now? I might be on the wrong parts of the internet, but the lackluster build quality and bad ergonomics seems close to common knowledge now.

Its the Carhartt jacket effect but for realtors. People don't want to buy houses from someone in either a sensible EV or a spendy ICE.

skylined!
Apr 6, 2012

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

Madkal posted:

I live a province (Canadian here) where Tesla's are ubiquitous as gently caress. The people driving them aren't doing it because they are electric but because it's kind of a status symbol. When BMW or Mercs or whatever start making electric cars as quickly and as expensive as Tesla's then I can see them taking a hot here. I don't think Tesla is worrying about the coming of Nissan Leafs.

Their stock price was and is tied up with the potential for their tech to completely dominate the car market, though. Because autonomous driving is dead in the water, they will not maintain their stock price anywhere near what it's even at right now as just a luxury high-end EV - especially when the car itself is riddled with manufacturing defects. They are absolutely worried about Nissan Leafs.

Fister Roboto
Feb 21, 2008

Furnaceface posted:

Did... he not ever listen to the lyrics?

Also ignorant Canadian here. They were showing some of the districts that were in contention on TV up here and one of them looked like the outline of a unicorn fighting (or possibly loving) a dinosaur. Are all of your voting regions so oddly carved out or is it just a handful of really weird ones? Are they the most obvious examples of gerrymandering?

Any time a right winger claims to like RATM or similar groups, they actually are listening to the lyrics. But then they assume that "the machine" is like... politically correct liberals and minorities.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

OAquinas posted:

Besides the EV trucks (esp. F150E), what's really going to eat into Tesla is their lack of a crossover body (that isn't $100k). Nissan, VW, and Hyundai all have good offerings coming up/here. Not sure about other places but that type makes up most of the traffic around here.

Musk's net worth is on borrowed time.

Ford is literally making the most popular truck an EV too. Their F150 EV model is coming out soon.

Fister Roboto posted:

Any time a right winger claims to like RATM or similar groups, they actually are listening to the lyrics. But then they assume that "the machine" is like... politically correct liberals and minorities.

You know my friend and I were talking about something similar last night. The whole Joe Rogan conservative crowd get into this question everything mentality but somehow not to the point about you know American business or their own culture and beliefs. They distrust the government but only to the extent it pokes at any small amount of their power.

Mooseontheloose fucked around with this message at 18:05 on Nov 18, 2022

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Angry_Ed
Mar 30, 2010




Grimey Drawer

Mooseontheloose posted:

You know my friend and I were talking about something similar last night. The whole Joe Rogan conservative crowd get into this question everything mentality but somehow not to the point about you know American business or their own culture and beliefs. They distrust the government but only to the extent it pokes at any small amount of their power.

Well to them, Businesses can't possibly be "the authority" to question. For some reason.

Even though the Guerilla Radio music video heavily takes aim at sweatshop exploitation and how corporations (like The Gap) benefitted.

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