MLB Offseason: It's All About the Positions He Doesn't Play

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Who's your 2022 MVP? This poll is closed.
Shohei Ohtani	50	59.52%
Aaron Judge	19	22.62%
Hey, the national league has an MVP too you know!	15	17.86%
Total:	84 votes

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Kirios: Jan 26, 2010

Bryce is getting TJ, out for the first half of 2023:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/bryce-harper-undergoes-tommy-john-surgery.html

It's not entirely surprising, but it means the 2023 Phillies will likely regress.

# ? Nov 24, 2022 05:35

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# ? May 30, 2024 10:58

fast cars loose anus: Mar 2, 2007; Pillbug

Kirios posted:

Bryce is getting TJ, out for the first half of 2023:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/bryce-harper-undergoes-tommy-john-surgery.html

It's not entirely surprising, but it means the 2023 Phillies will likely regress.

He only played in 99 games this year so it's not unreasonable to believe if they get some improvement elsewhere they can still make the playoffs

# ? Nov 24, 2022 07:11

KICK BAMA KICK: Mar 2, 2009

The "absurdly preliminary" '23 ZiPS projections just leaving current FAs out of it entirely, have Atlanta leading MLB at 96 wins somehow?

# ? Nov 24, 2022 07:17

Intruder: Mar 5, 2003; I got a taste for blown saves

fast cars loose anus posted:

He only played in 99 games this year so it's not unreasonable to believe if they get some improvement elsewhere they can still make the playoffs

I'm going to peg the Phillies at 83ish wins this year

Unless they sign Correa, in which case 95 wins

# ? Nov 24, 2022 07:19

GalacticAcid: Apr 8, 2013; NEW YORK VALUES

FlamingLiberal posted:

The Rays officially released Brendan McKay earlier. I remember him getting a ton of hype for a few years until his arm exploded and he never really recovered.

He is from Western PA�Bucs need to scoop him up and take advantage of the #FromHere supercharge

# ? Nov 24, 2022 07:48

fast cars loose anus: Mar 2, 2007; Pillbug

KICK BAMA KICK posted:

The "absurdly preliminary" '23 ZiPS projections just leaving current FAs out of it entirely, have Atlanta leading MLB at 96 wins somehow?

Atlanta has been absolutely on top of signing their core talent early to long-term deals so they never end up in a situation like, say, the Yankees where a many-WAR player might leave, so this is the sort of list they'd definitely show high in

# ? Nov 24, 2022 08:17

Intruder: Mar 5, 2003; I got a taste for blown saves

91 wins for the Dodgers huh

The last time they had a win rate that low was 2016 and it hasn't been below that since 2012

Intruder fucked around with this message at 09:38 on Nov 24, 2022

# ? Nov 24, 2022 08:46

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Intruder posted:

91 wins for the Dodgers huh

The last time they had a win rate that low was 2016 and it hasn't been below that since 2012

Just to clarify/reiterate, the projection assumes entirely internal replacements for the Turners, Bellinger, Anderson, etc

# ? Nov 24, 2022 15:26

R.D. Mangles: Jan 10, 2004

lol it is incredibly dumb to do projections before we know who will even be on a team

# ? Nov 24, 2022 15:40

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

R.D. Mangles posted:

lol it is incredibly dumb to do projections before we know who will even be on a team

All depends on the usage!

quote:

These 2023 projections are guaranteed to be awful, wrong in many ways ranging from tragic to comic. But despite being absolutely premature and littered with horrible misses, projected standings at this point are actually quite useful, and useful is the best description any kind of predictive model can strive for. Standings at this point are a poor predictor of the 2023 season � and even the eventual 2023 projections themselves � but what they are able to do is give a �state of the union� estimate for each team. These standings represent the best estimates ZiPS can make at this point about where a team sits in the league�s pecking order, based solely on the players currently under contract with the team. It�s hard to get where you want to go if you don�t know where you�re starting.

The methodology I�m using here is the same one I use in the regular season, and as such, it isn�t identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings. So how does ZiPS calculate the upcoming season? Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th percentile projections for each player. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as an initial starting point. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered through ~~arbitrary whimsy~~ my logic and reasoning.

To his point, I'm sure almost all teams (hi Rockies!) have an internal version of this to help guess which teams are in on which free agents, where they have surpluses and needs for trade, and to help assess signing impacts and competitive positioning.

I mean, to some degree the options are something like this or having the Jim Bowden of your staff assess every team's needs going into the offseason. Since Jim is no longer a viable front office member and peddles his crusty, vibesbased insights in The Athletic, it's nice to have a more applicable counterpart in the public domain too.

# ? Nov 24, 2022 16:15

STAC Goat: Mar 12, 2008; Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

R.D. Mangles posted:

lol it is incredibly dumb to do projections before we know who will even be on a team

Gotta give fans something to obsessively argue over and be unreasonably smug about.

I'm super glad baseball has an offseason and its not 12 months a year of nonsense noise like the NFL.

# ? Nov 24, 2022 16:17

camoseven: Dec 30, 2005; RODOLPHONE RINGIN'

Good morning I am thankful for the relentless march of time that will eventually lead to the death of Bob Nutting

# ? Nov 24, 2022 16:21

GalacticAcid: Apr 8, 2013; NEW YORK VALUES

That�s right

# ? Nov 24, 2022 16:27

R.D. Mangles: Jan 10, 2004

i haven't played a new videogame since like 2009 but i downloaded super mega baseball 3 demo and it works on my computer, so i'll spring for the $9 and ineptly try to play baseball with you.

# ? Nov 24, 2022 16:33

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Speaking of Jimmy's insights, The Athletic had him review beat writer proposed trades for Blue Jays catchers.

quote:

Nootbaar and RHP Michael McGreevy to Blue Jays for Kirk

Bowden�s verdict: I think the Cardinals will value game calling, pitch framing, leadership and the ability to shut down the running game over offence in trying to improve at catcher. As much as I love Kirk�s bat, I think St. Louis would prefer a better defensive catcher. For the Blue Jays, it�s probably time to let Moreno be the full-time catcher with Kirk as his backup and most of the time as the DH. Therefore, I think Jansen, who has only two years of team control left, is the one Toronto should move.

I like the idea of Nootbaar being part of the return because the Blue Jays badly need left-handed bats to better balance the lineup, but in my opinion, they should consider Alec Burleson over him; he�s also a left-handed hitter, and long term I like his bat better than Nootbaar�s. Both are expendable from the Cardinals� perspective, with Jordan Walker, Dylan Carlson, and Tyler O�Neill their expected starting outfield in 2023 and Mois�s G�mez in the minors as additional outfield depth.

I think the Blue Jays should try to get a future bullpen piece back in the trade, too � someone like Inohan Paniagua, a hard-throwing righty who struck out 145 in 137 2/3 innings as a starter last year in A ball. He could rise fast to the majors as a set-up reliever. Nootbaar or Burleson and Paniagua for Jansen would be my suggested trade for the Blue Jays.

Keep in mind, the Cardinals prefer Sean Murphy of the A�s over Jansen and could also sign a defensive catcher such as Christian V�zquez in free agency without making a trade.

quote:

San Diego Padres send OF Trent Grisham to Blue Jays for Jansen

Bowden�s verdict: The Padres first have to decide where they�ll play Tatis in the outfield. I�d play him in right field and Juan Soto in left field, and if that�s what they decide to do, I would keep the Gold Glove defence of Grisham in between them. I do like the idea of Jansen platooning with Nola behind the plate, and maybe there�s a three-way deal where Campusano could go to the Cardinals, Burleson and Paniagua to the Blue Jays and Jansen to the Padres. I like that concept better for all three teams.

quote:

Chicago Cubs trade OF Ian Happ and RHP Adbert Alzolay to Blue Jays for Jansen

Bowden�s verdict: I would not make this trade if I were the Cubs, but if I were the Blue Jays, I would call a press conference to announce the deal if we received this offer. Happ�s versatility and switch-hitting ability combined with his .342 on-base percentage and 4.4 bWAR last season make it a no-brainer for Toronto. They could play him at second base or in left field and let him be another table setter for the middle of their lineup. Alzolay, if healthy, could provide swing-and-miss innings for the bullpen, which is an area they�ve been looking to improve. But if I�m the Cubs, I�m pursuing Moreno because I think they need to be thinking longer term than Jansen.

quote:

Chicago White Sox send RHP Liam Hendriks, OF Gavin Sheets, OF Yoelqui C�spedes and $10 million to Blue Jays for Kirk

Bowden�s verdict: I�m rejecting the trade if I�m the Blue Jays. I have four years of control of Kirk compared to two years of control of Hendriks, and we all know the risks that come with closers from year to year. Also, I like C�spedes�s tools, but I�m not sure how much he�s going to hit. I know Kirk is going to hit and get on base.

quote:

Boston Red Sox send RHP Josh Winckowski or RHP Kutter Crawford and OF Jarren Durran to Blue Jays for Jansen

Bowden�s verdict: If I�m the Blue Jays, I�m going to pass because I agree with Red Sox�s top evaluators that Duran isn�t going to hit enough. He doesn�t get great jumps or take the best angles in the outfield, though he does outrun some of his mistakes. He struggles against off-speed pitches, which leads me to believe he has depth perception issues, so I wouldn�t be interested in trading for him unless I could test his eyes first. Crawford and Winckowski are solid throw-ins in this type of deal but not enough for Toronto to pull the trigger on this package.

quote:

Minnesota Twins send OF Max Kepler, RHP Jordan Balazovic, RHP Cole Sands and $4.8 million to Blue Jays for Jansen

Bowden�s verdict: I don�t like the trade for the Blue Jays, but the concept makes sense as they�d get a left-handed hitting platoon outfielder in Kepler and a couple of young, affordable arms. However, Kepler has never moved the needle for me, and I�d rather sign Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger or Andrew Benintendi in free agency than make this deal. Also, I worry about the health of Balazovic, who in the last two years has walked four batters per nine innings after starting his career by walking just two per nine. Is he healthy? Sands is just a back-of-rotation depth starter for me. I need more quality and less quantity in a Jansen trade.

quote:

Cleveland Guardians send Cal Quantrill and OF George Valera to Blue Jays for Kirk

Editor�s note: While Zack hemmed and hawed over what the Guardians could do, Kaitlyn went ahead and suggested Quantrill and Valera for Kirk.

Bowden�s verdict: I think this is a fair-value trade for both sides. Blue Jays get another legitimate starter and a solid left-handed hitting outfield prospect. Guardians get a solution at catcher. Both sides should consider this trade.

quote:

Detroit Tigers send RHP Joe Jim�nez and a lottery-ticket prospect to Blue Jays for Jansen

Bowden�s verdict: If I�m the Blue Jays, I offer Jansen for Jim�nez and Austin Meadows. However, if I�m the Tigers, I need longer-term solutions than two years of Jansen. Therefore, they should pursue a trade for Moreno or Kirk. That said, a package of Jim�nez and Meadows for Moreno or Kirk won�t work for the Blue Jays. Bottom line: I don�t see these teams matching up.

# ? Nov 24, 2022 16:40

R.D. Mangles: Jan 10, 2004

that cubs/jays trade is the most loving insane thing i've seen, sure i'll trade an all-star outfielder and potential stud setup guy for a backup catcher. also happ is not a viable second baseman except in an absolute emergency.

e: oh wait, he's from Elmhurst, let's do it.

# ? Nov 24, 2022 16:46

bawfuls: Oct 28, 2009

Paracaidas posted:

Just to clarify/reiterate, the projection assumes entirely internal replacements for the Turners, Bellinger, Anderson, etc

Right, but those guys aren�t collectively worth 20 wins. Maybe it also doesn�t include Kershaw who has technically not re-signed yet though reports were he was close several weeks ago. Still a wild drop.

# ? Nov 24, 2022 16:53

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

bawfuls posted:

Right, but those guys aren�t collectively worth 20 wins. Maybe it also doesn�t include Kershaw who has technically not re-signed yet though reports were he was close several weeks ago. Still a wild drop.

IIRC most projection systems (and ZIPs in particular) will never return W/L totals on the tails, as outliers are dragged back to the pack.

Which is to say assuming the entire roster returns and ignoring age-related changes might sneak the Dodgers up to 100 but even that would be pretty rare by projection standards. Last year's final ZIPs, for instance, saw the projections range from 64 (baltimore) - 93 (Dodgers), where reality had 4 teams below 64 and 6 teams at 93 or above.

# ? Nov 24, 2022 17:09

Sydin: Oct 29, 2011; Another spring commute

R.D. Mangles posted:

that cubs/jays trade is the most loving insane thing i've seen, sure i'll trade an all-star outfielder and potential stud setup guy for a backup catcher. also happ is not a viable second baseman except in an absolute emergency.

e: oh wait, he's from Elmhurst, let's do it.

Haha yeah, the Cubs trading AS talent for this kind of return is nuts. Blue Jay's would have to throw in like, at least 2-3 17 year old A-ball guys for Jed to bite.

# ? Nov 24, 2022 17:41

R.D. Mangles: Jan 10, 2004

here's how much of a dum-dum i am: the first several times i saw someone write they wanted to trade for a TOR starter, i kept thinking how many good pitchers do the Jays have and why does everyone want them?

# ? Nov 24, 2022 17:44

bees x1000: Jun 11, 2020

KICK BAMA KICK posted:

The "absurdly preliminary" '23 ZiPS projections just leaving current FAs out of it entirely, have Atlanta leading MLB at 96 wins somehow?

Angels above .500? lol no

# ? Nov 24, 2022 17:45

FlamingLiberal: Jan 18, 2009; Would you like to play a game?

The Trent Grisham for Kirk trade made me laugh out loud

# ? Nov 24, 2022 17:49

Tony Phillips: Feb 9, 2006

secular woods sex posted:

Also, SMB3 is the only game that has ever made me wince and feel bad when you line something back up the middle and knock the pitcher out. Something about the sound of impact and movement of the rag doll is horrifying.

This just happened. Short relief appearance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7T_BgOxp08

# ? Nov 24, 2022 18:45

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

What would be cool is if they would put out the loving Show on pc

# ? Nov 24, 2022 18:56

AlbertFlasher: Feb 14, 2006; Hulk Hogan and the Wrestling Boot Band

Tony Phillips posted:

This just happened. Short relief appearance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7T_BgOxp08

oh poo poo that looks really painful

# ? Nov 24, 2022 18:58

Kirios: Jan 26, 2010

Okay I'm like 90% sure that pitcher is straight up dead.

# ? Nov 24, 2022 19:05

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

What�s funny is that it 100% takes the pitcher out of the game, and you only have like 4 RPs so if that happens to your guy in the first you�re hosed for like 3 games

# ? Nov 24, 2022 19:09

Johnny Bravo: Jan 19, 2011

zoux posted:

What would be cool is if they would put out the loving Show on pc

It's honestly kind of dumb since it's already over on Microsoft's platform and Sony is in the business of porting like every other in house game to PC now

# ? Nov 24, 2022 19:33

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

I�m sure it�s a rights issue with MLB or MLBPA

# ? Nov 24, 2022 19:39

Intruder: Mar 5, 2003; I got a taste for blown saves

MLB had an exclusive with 2K sports or something and The Show was only possible as long as it was platform exlusive I think? Something like that?

# ? Nov 24, 2022 19:41

Sydin: Oct 29, 2011; Another spring commute

I mean it's on Xbox and Switch now so might as well also throw in PC.

# ? Nov 24, 2022 19:48

Splint Chesthair: Dec 27, 2004

zoux posted:

What�s funny is that it 100% takes the pitcher out of the game, and you only have like 4 RPs so if that happens to your guy in the first you�re hosed for like 3 games

Once I managed to do that to two relievers on subsequent pitches, it ruled. The next guy who came in was immediately marked �RATTLED,� lol.

# ? Nov 24, 2022 19:57

Johnny Bravo: Jan 19, 2011

Yea and 2K hasn't made a baseball game in nearly 10 years now with this last one they made being on a last minute renewal of the license. It just seems odd since Sony let it go to the other consoles while also porting their own exclusives over to PC and The Show didn't make the cut

could just be a weird rights thing between MLB and MLBPA holding it up like zoux said even though MLB is co-publishing the Xbox/Switch versions

# ? Nov 24, 2022 19:57

Intruder: Mar 5, 2003; I got a taste for blown saves

Sydin posted:

I mean it's on Xbox and Switch now so might as well also throw in PC.

Ah I didn't realize that

# ? Nov 24, 2022 20:05

got some chores tonight: Feb 18, 2012; honk honk whats for lunch...

Tony Phillips posted:

This just happened. Short relief appearance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7T_BgOxp08

I like it when you have a mobile catcher and a slow catcher or DH is hitting and your catcher can get the out at first, despite the death of your pitcher.

That's dedication to the play.

Also, you can hit a ball directly into the groin of the pitcher, and they don't suffer an injury, just a loss in their mojo (morale).

# ? Nov 24, 2022 20:45

rickiep00h: Aug 16, 2010; BATDANCE

KICK BAMA KICK posted:

The "absurdly preliminary" '23 ZiPS projections just leaving current FAs out of it entirely, have Atlanta leading MLB at 96 wins somehow?

I was about to say that no matter who MN picks up, they will get 85 wins and just barely miss the division while being miles back of a wild card. They could somehow land Correa and Verlander AND Kershaw and still somehow collapse in August.

# ? Nov 24, 2022 22:30

LobsterMobster: Oct 29, 2009; "I was being quiet and trying to be a good boy but he dialed the right combination to open the throw-down vault and it was on."

"Walter Foxx is ten times brighter than your bulb at the bottom of the tree merry xmas"

A friend of mine ran a sim league set in the 1920s, and this was his sizzle reel for the upcoming 1921 season, and it is glorious

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dz-czh77pVs

# ? Nov 24, 2022 22:35

The Pussy Boss: Nov 2, 2004

So many teams are interested in Bellinger that I feel like he could get a multi year deal if he wants one.

# ? Nov 24, 2022 23:03

maffew buildings: Apr 29, 2009; too dumb to be probated; not too dumb to be autobanned

His agent already said they've gotten some multiyears so it'll be interesting to see what develops

Re: Continental League trigger warning that content I didn't want to see all three of the 'Black Irish' Ryan brothers of the Hampton Square Barbers killed jfc

# ? Nov 24, 2022 23:08

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# ? May 30, 2024 10:58

FlamingLiberal: Jan 18, 2009; Would you like to play a game?

The Pussy Boss posted:

So many teams are interested in Bellinger that I feel like he could get a multi year deal if he wants one.

Lot of dumb teams thinking that they know more than the Dodgers

# ? Nov 24, 2022 23:29

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > MLB Offseason: It's All About the Positions He Doesn't Play

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