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Charliegrs posted:This is from a few pages back but I just want to comment on it. I don't think "fear of pain/death" is going to stop people. It is the same argument made about the death penalty being a deterrent for criminals.
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Nov 25, 2022 11:01
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Yeah, past a very low threshold increasing the punishment does absolutely nothing to deter people from doing something. People do it anyway either because they don't think they'll get caught or simply don't care. Surprisingly, treating people like perfectly rational actors making complex risk assessments every time they do anything is as useless in criminology as it is in economics!
Clarste fucked around with this message at 11:07 on Nov 25, 2022 |
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Nov 25, 2022 11:05
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Increasing perceived risk does change behavior, but deth penalty typically replaces life in prison, so it doesn't increase your odds of dying in prison at all. No extra enforcement risk. Your meetings sometimes get drivebyed does increase risk, but it likely wouldn't be frequent enough to change behavior, and any coordinated group doing that is going to the top of the most wanted lists. And to a point they have a martyrdom complex around physical violence, to true believers it's a sign their doing it right. Anyhow the system of promoters and enablers is a much more concrete group, non of whom are totally guaranteed to be replaced or replaced by someone as hardcore in support. Barrel Cactaur fucked around with this message at 12:07 on Nov 25, 2022 |
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Nov 25, 2022 12:04
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Charliegrs posted:What I do wonder, is if at some point you might start to see right wing gatherings getting shot up. Those Nazi rallies you see happening in various cities around the US? What happens when those start getting shot up by people who have had enough of their poo poo and no longer care about throwing away their own life to teach them a lesson. Will this have the affect of scaring these groups or just embolden them even more? Sadly it would probably be the latter. This would be a serious mistake. These groups openly hope for a reprisal attack, as it feeds their victim complex, creates self-justification for further radicalization and terrorist action, and can be easily hooked into their racial holy war conspiracy mythology. The birth of the modern right wing extremist movement is deeply incompetent/illegal militaristic responses to right wing cults by the FBI.
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Nov 25, 2022 12:13
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Barrel Cactaur posted:Increasing perceived risk does change behavior, but deth penalty typically replaces life in prison, so it doesn't increase your odds of dying in prison at all. No extra enforcement risk. Perceived risk is almost entirely "the risk of getting caught" and not "the risk of getting caught multiplied by the punishment, so a 10% chance of 10 years in prison is equivalent to a 100% chance of 1 year in prison" which is how a lot of punishments are designed. As long as the punishment is an actual punishment that they care about at all, people don't really weigh the exact values against each other. Heck, most people don't even know the exact punishments for crimes, because they are not lawyers. Clarste fucked around with this message at 12:32 on Nov 25, 2022 |
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Nov 25, 2022 12:29
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Gumball Gumption posted:I don't know why America has decided these assholes are allowed to kill us when they want but we have for some reason. I mean you've decided that the assholes standing in the way of maybe stopping these assholes are allowed to do a whole bunch of other poo poo too. While remaining good/pitiful/sympathetic/fooled/etc. That is the main problem I see and I am pretty sure I know the reasons for it too - and have seen them stated here as well.
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Nov 25, 2022 12:34
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Aren't a lot of these shootings elaborate murder-suicides? I've read that somewhere. If the goal is to die in a hail of bullets and hurt as many of your targeted out group as you can the concept of punishment is completely meaningless and has zero deterrent value.
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Nov 25, 2022 12:48
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Not sure how I feel about this. It is good that we won and it is good that we turned some voters away from the GOP. But is the latter just a one time thing? We need to turn out our core constituencies. https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1595487970534252545 https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1595489145669009410 https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1595511402902523911
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Nov 25, 2022 12:51
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And these are the people who still describe as R after the last few years of mayhem, rather than the "Independents". So they should be unshakeable, but clearly a lot of the candidates this cycle were just extremely loving bad. Good news is the GOP has a deep bench of up-and-coming maniacs
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Nov 25, 2022 13:03
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Sodomy Hussein posted:This would be a serious mistake. These groups openly hope for a reprisal attack, as it feeds their victim complex, creates self-justification for further radicalization and terrorist action, and can be easily hooked into their racial holy war conspiracy mythology. The birth of the modern right wing extremist movement is deeply incompetent/illegal militaristic responses to right wing cults by the FBI. Which doesn't matter to people being victimized or even the murderous supremacists themselves. You're looking at it rear end backwards too. The nazis and supremacists are looking for an excuse to justify their behavior, but regardless of what happens their behavior won't change. Even if retaliations never happen they'll just make it up like they do every time something contrary to their personal mythology disagrees with them. Which means that by all sensible rights no one outside their circle is going to give a gently caress what the genocidal supremacists of the world have say to excuse their behavior if things get that far without the government stepping in to bust these extremist right wing groups up. Violence however is sadly an apt and useful deterrent to all but the most hardcore types of supremacists. You can see this with how Antifa (and why they went after antifa so hard on Fox and other republican sources) and black bloc types would show up to beat the poo poo out of nazis when they started attacking minorities. All of a sudden the nazis showed up in less numbers or if they did show up would only dare to attack people that were isolated or they could track down and assault afterwards, and even then usually they did it only in groups. Ditto for history, where if you were KKK or pro slavery there were some places you just didn't go to make trouble if you wanted to walk out of there alive and not go "missing" or whatever the written off excuse (again, on both sides, because bigots also cannot admit to weakness due to their often authoritarian trappings) was. What you can take from this is that the law protects both sides in a way. Part of that whole "the state has a monopoly on violence" thing is that people are willing to give the system the benefit of the doubt and assume it is justified in not just it's use but also the right to monopolization of force. In essence, hate crime laws don't just protect the minority from being viciously persecuted, but also protect the persecutor from getting stomped into a red paste by the justly aggrieved oppressed after they've had enough. When the law stops being fair, targeting those who act in bad faith to hurt others, or just mattering inevitably the bigots escalate as they assume they are free from consequences until the minorities are forced to decide that independent action is necessary or the bigots have enough state control to wipe them out. History --- hell, American history no less, is filled with examples of this. Archonex fucked around with this message at 13:31 on Nov 25, 2022 |
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Nov 25, 2022 13:15
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Charlz Guybon posted:Not sure how I feel about this. It is good that we won and it is good that we turned some voters away from the GOP. But is the latter just a one time thing? We need to turn out our core constituencies. Considering that this was a midterm under a Democratic President in poo poo economic conditions and with a massive effort by the media to lie about all the cities turning into Death Wish III, it's real good. Basically the take away from the election is that a red wave would have hit, except the GOP picked a whole bunch of absolutely terrible candidates while driving away voters by not shutting the gently caress up about abortion, conspiracy theories, and hate. Part of why Florida was so disastrous is that neither Charlie Crist nor Val Demings provided any sort of contrast that would allow voters to vote on those issues. Charlie Crist is anti-abortion and Val Demings ran on being the coppest cop, neither made stopping the ghoulishness in anyway central to their campaign. Now, Demings did do some pro abortion ads and did marginally better than Christ. However that wasn't the focus of the campaign and the Senate isn't really the battleground for reproductive rights. However if Charlie Crist is turning people away in droves, Val Demings did nothing to get them to come out and vote just for her. If Republicans want to vote for Republicans, and the national mood is that poo poo sucks but Republicans suck more, running your campaigns as Republican Lite isn't going to get you jack poo poo except blown the gently caress out. New York got hosed because they ran the cycle like they were the inverse GOP. Abortion, conspiracy theories, and hate aren't viable antagonists for the voters on a state basis. So the Democrats got the full force of midterm headwinds, while running a bunch of terrible candidates who couldn't fight the well funded lie that crime is exploding like a super nova. Add in years of shooting themselves in the foot for the betterment of Cuomo, and it's actually kind of impressive they didn't fully implode.
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Nov 25, 2022 13:54
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I'd like to see Ole Donny Trump wriggle out of this one: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63736485 quote:Donald Trump sued as New York Adult Survivors Act takes effect
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Nov 25, 2022 14:37
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Gyges posted:Considering that this was a midterm under a Democratic President in poo poo economic conditions and with a massive effort by the media to lie about all the cities turning into Death Wish III, it's real good. i mean part of florida is also that plus other factors, 1. desantis hosed with poo poo so much its basicaly GOP easy mode now and 2. chuds from all over the country are moving in so they can live in chud paradise and poo poo.
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Nov 25, 2022 14:38
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DeSantis' loving with poo poo has been overblown, I think. The loving with the maps and poo poo is the culmination of the entire GOP's efforts in the state. The rest of his bullshit is theatrics more directed towards his base than anything else. For instance arresting felons for voting, an extremely bad thing, isn't doing much more than nibbling the edges of tenths of vote percentages. Especially since it looks like most of it is getting thrown out and being such a dumbass about it is probably going to force the government to actually do what they are required to by the constitutional amendment.(I hope at least) Chuds moving in does have an effect, but it's questionable how much that's actually different in effect than the normal exodus of the rest of the country's olds to this dumb sandbar. I could definitely be wrong, but it is my belief/feeling that the main issue with Democrats making GBS threads the bed in Florida is the party's insistence on being ride or die 3rdy Way triangulation.
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Nov 25, 2022 15:57
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Gyges posted:
I worked Florida in 2010 during the Tea Party wave. And it sounds like not much changed, the top level people are there to raise money and not much else. They don't do field and want to hand pick their candidates.
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Nov 25, 2022 16:19
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Florida is also kind of the the last nail in the coffin to the idea that covid itself sank Trump in 2020 and not his incompetency. Florida didn't get wrecked by COVID, and DeSantis and others were able to create a false narrative of Florida even was being particularly outstanding (It wasn't).
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Nov 25, 2022 17:33
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Sodomy Hussein posted:This would be a serious mistake. These groups openly hope for a reprisal attack, as it feeds their victim complex, creates self-justification for further radicalization and terrorist action, and can be easily hooked into their racial holy war conspiracy mythology. The birth of the modern right wing extremist movement is deeply incompetent/illegal militaristic responses to right wing cults by the FBI. The only thing that's ever stopped the Nazis has been killing them.
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Nov 25, 2022 18:01
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Byzantine posted:The only thing that's ever stopped the Nazis has been killing them. That or winter doing it for you
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Nov 25, 2022 18:06
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i mean part of florida is also that plus other factors, 1. desantis hosed with poo poo so much its basicaly GOP easy mode now and 2. chuds from all over the country are moving in so they can live in chud paradise and poo poo. I feel 1 kind of applies to Texas as well. 2 absolutely applies to Texas. I live down here and I'm so tired of hearing "Purple Texas!" and such. Don't get me wrong I make every effort to vote and love it but... You have all the conservative and libertarian jerkwads moving in from everywhere else thinking that Texas and Florida are conservative havens and then doing what they can to make them conservative havens.
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Nov 25, 2022 18:20
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Timeless Appeal posted:Florida is also kind of the the last nail in the coffin to the idea that covid itself sank Trump in 2020 and not his incompetency. Florida didn't get wrecked by COVID, and DeSantis and others were able to create a false narrative of Florida even was being particularly outstanding (It wasn't). If Trump showed the minimum of actual leadership like any normal president would be expected to do and made it clear he was trying (even if ineffectively) to help people instead of punish people he didn't like during Covid he would have sailed to an easy reelection. He'd easily have gotten at least a little crossover votes from Democrats to give him an electoral landslide.
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Nov 25, 2022 18:34
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Timeless Appeal posted:Florida is also kind of the the last nail in the coffin to the idea that covid itself sank Trump in 2020 and not his incompetency. Florida didn't get wrecked by COVID, and DeSantis and others were able to create a false narrative of Florida even was being particularly outstanding (It wasn't). Trump being the only idiot populist in the world who wasn't able to get a boost out of covid is in itself remarkable. As it was, he lost by pretty much what all the 2019 head-to-heads against Biden said he would.
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Nov 25, 2022 18:34
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Killer robot posted:Trump being the only idiot populist in the world who wasn't able to get a boost out of covid is in itself remarkable. As it was, he lost by pretty much what all the 2019 head-to-heads against Biden said he would. 'let the olds die for the economy' was not the smartest political position when your electorate is predominately older people
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Nov 25, 2022 18:41
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Zwabu posted:If Trump showed the minimum of actual leadership like any normal president would be expected to do and made it clear he was trying (even if ineffectively) to help people instead of punish people he didn't like during Covid he would have sailed to an easy reelection. He'd easily have gotten at least a little crossover votes from Democrats to give him an electoral landslide. It is endlessly infuriating that Donny's greatest sin isn't any of the many terrible things he's done, rather it's that he's an uncouth nouveau rich presenting rear end in a top hat. Like, he could have done absolutely everything he's done and it would have all been OK with the USA, if he'd just been somewhere between 10% and 20% less of a gloating rear end in a top hat about doing it. Edit: It is darkly funny that the same assholery is also the only way he even got there in the first place. If he hadn't dragged us all down the escalator to hell, it would have been JEB! or maybe Chris Christie who got the nomination. Gyges fucked around with this message at 19:12 on Nov 25, 2022 |
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Nov 25, 2022 19:08
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Gyges posted:It is endlessly infuriating that Donny's greatest sin isn't any of the many terrible things he's done, rather it's that he's an uncouth nouveau rich presenting rear end in a top hat. Like, he could have done absolutely everything he's done and it would have all been OK with the USA, if he'd just been somewhere between 10% and 20% less of a gloating rear end in a top hat about doing it. Though it's hard to say really. A lot of people backed him because he's all that, and even a lot of people who hated his real policies spent so much time in "lol Trump" mode treating it all as a big joke.
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Nov 25, 2022 19:16
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:That or winter doing it for you Ohhh that's the long goal of rampant global warming
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Nov 25, 2022 19:23
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bird food bathtub posted:Aren't a lot of these shootings elaborate murder-suicides? I've read that somewhere. If the goal is to die in a hail of bullets and hurt as many of your targeted out group as you can the concept of punishment is completely meaningless and has zero deterrent value. Would you happened to know where that's from? Because it appears the opposite is true: most shooters from Parkland on have seem to have plans to get away with it. Maybe it's fallout from the Kyle Rittenhouse trial, where they fully expect to get a jury to nullify their shooting or they expect to get support on the run from some right-wing underground like Eric Rudolph.
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Nov 25, 2022 19:50
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Young Freud posted:Would you happened to know where that's from? Because it appears the opposite is true: most shooters from Parkland on have seem to have plans to get away with it. Maybe it's fallout from the Kyle Rittenhouse trial, where they fully expect to get a jury to nullify their shooting or they expect to get support on the run from some right-wing underground like Eric Rudolph. As an example, the Virginia Walmart shooter a couple days ago shot six people and then himself. The same goes for most mass shootings, which are a lot more common than the few media darling cases that stay in the news cycle for more than a day or two. The Parkland shooter trying to escape was more of the exception rather than the rule; mass shooters usually kill themselves, continue to fire until they're subdued or killed, or give themselves up to the police without any serious effort to evade them. Mass shooting researchers usually regard mass shootings as being a form of suicidal expression, with the shooter being willing to give up the rest of their lives in return for one final strike at whatever group they blame for their pain. It's turning "suicide by cop" into a martyrdom.
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Nov 25, 2022 20:41
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Main Paineframe posted:As an example, the Virginia Walmart shooter a couple days ago shot six people and then himself. The same goes for most mass shootings, which are a lot more common than the few media darling cases that stay in the news cycle for more than a day or two. The Parkland shooter trying to escape was more of the exception rather than the rule; mass shooters usually kill themselves, continue to fire until they're subdued or killed, or give themselves up to the police without any serious effort to evade them. None of which is really incompatible with setting stretch goals of surviving, thriving, and leading The Revolution. Especially the fiction you tell yourself is that the real death would be doing nothing.
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Nov 25, 2022 20:59
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Young Freud posted:Would you happened to know where that's from? Because it appears the opposite is true: most shooters from Parkland on have seem to have plans to get away with it. Maybe it's fallout from the Kyle Rittenhouse trial, where they fully expect to get a jury to nullify their shooting or they expect to get support on the run from some right-wing underground like Eric Rudolph. most of them are dumb sociopaths without a plan, rittenhouse was able to walk because he got the right jury and their was enough "it "could" have been self defence" that they couldnt convict mixed with the prosecutor probably over charging sadly(even if it was true) anyway most of these shooters are hosed up psychos looking to die but want to be remembered and some are weird chuds and some are mixed of both. there is a good video on the parkland dickhead interrogation tape and how he very clearly pretended to be mentally ill, but most of those are just "oooh i see daemons" or "im da joker baby" type bullshit. they show a case of a genuinly uber mentally ill killer and its loving creepy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mwt35SEeR9w Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 21:06 on Nov 25, 2022 |
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Nov 25, 2022 21:03
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Dapper_Swindler posted:most of them are dumb sociopaths without a plan, rittenhouse was able to walk because he got the right jury and their was enough "it "could" have been self defence" that they couldnt convict mixed with the prosecutor probably over charging sadly(even if it was true) Rittenhouse is also an exception to your average shooter. He showed up to a riot with a gun looking for violence which is very different behavior from your average American shooter. The Parkland shooter didn't get away because they had a plan, they got away because their gun jammed and then no one confronted them so they kind of just left. Honestly this is the best way to put it quote:anyway most of these shooters are hosed up psychos looking to die but want to be remembered and some are weird chuds and some are mixed of both. The majority of them are psychos looking to commit an extended suicide with as many victims as they can, some of those use politics as an answer to why but it doesn't really matter it's just a thing they latched onto and instead they would have something else. And finally there is the rarest group where the shooter sees this as part of a bigger struggle but most of those guys are hanging out in the woods doing militia drills right now.
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Nov 25, 2022 21:21
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Gumball Gumption posted:Rittenhouse is also an exception to your average shooter. He showed up to a riot with a gun looking for violence which is very different behavior from your average American shooter. The Parkland shooter didn't get away because they had a plan, they got away because their gun jammed and then no one confronted them so they kind of just left. i believe he either hid the gun or tossed it and then changed shirts and walked out with the crowed and snuck off. https://twitter.com/AboutChesapeake/status/1596141677508710403 anyway they released the walmart manager shooters notes on his phone. he sounds like a dickhead channer who managed to become a dickhead manager.
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Nov 25, 2022 21:29
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i believe he either hid the gun or tossed it and then changed shirts and walked out with the crowed and snuck off. I don't get "dickhead channer" vibes from this guy's variety of schizo-Christianity.
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Nov 25, 2022 21:36
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:That or winter doing it for you That's just a myth to deny giving the soviets credit for military competence. The invasion had already stalled before winter set in.
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Nov 25, 2022 21:39
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Zwabu posted:If Trump showed the minimum of actual leadership like any normal president would be expected to do and made it clear he was trying (even if ineffectively) to help people instead of punish people he didn't like during Covid he would have sailed to an easy reelection. He'd easily have gotten at least a little crossover votes from Democrats to give him an electoral landslide. In all honesty, he WAS trying...in his own crook fashion. Trump -really- wanted to send another round of relief checks right before the election, but McConnel and the other GOP bigshots nipped it in the bud. Either because they thought giving that much cash away to people instead of banks and cronies was way too much communism, or to actively trip Trump and get control back. Likely both.
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Nov 25, 2022 22:06
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i believe he either hid the gun or tossed it and then changed shirts and walked out with the crowed and snuck off. Cruz? He was arrested in the same clothing he was wearing during the shooting. He did drop the gun but it's likely after it jammed. I don't think there is anything to indicate he had a plan there to escape, just that in the moment he did since no one was confronting him. My main point just is though that we have multiple types of shooters with different reasoning plaguing America and understanding those why's does matter.
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Nov 25, 2022 23:09
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"My true intent was never to murder anyone...I just wanted a wife who was equally yoked as I." Jesus Hussein Christ.
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Nov 26, 2022 00:04
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Sephyr posted:In all honesty, he WAS trying...in his own crook fashion. Trump -really- wanted to send another round of relief checks right before the election, but McConnel and the other GOP bigshots nipped it in the bud. Either because they thought giving that much cash away to people instead of banks and cronies was way too much communism, or to actively trip Trump and get control back. Likely both. yeah Trump was real fuckin bad as far as getting people the help they need in almost every way, but I will concede that "just sending people money makes them like you" is simple enough that it seems to have stuck in his brain for more than nine minutes
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Nov 26, 2022 00:05
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Nameless Pete posted:"My true intent was never to murder anyone...I just wanted a wife who was equally yoked as I." To be honest, wanting an equally yoked wife is the only normal thing in that entire note of madness, even if it was quite the narrative swerve. Keep in mind that he's talking about 2 Corinthians, where Paul talks about marrying someone whose values you share and with whom you agree with on most things. One of the few times where the dude actually gave decent, general, advice that transcends being a dumb letter to some penpal that was somehow elevated to divine writing. Probably a real good thing that this loon couldn't find another crazy person who he could plan a shooting with though. But hey, at least his Evernote to God included the cure to cancer. So we've got that going for us.
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Nov 26, 2022 00:26
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choosing to believe he meant yoked as in super jacked
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Nov 26, 2022 00:37
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GreyjoyBastard posted:yeah Trump was real fuckin bad as far as getting people the help they need in almost every way, but I will concede that "just sending people money makes them like you" is simple enough that it seems to have stuck in his brain for more than nine minutes He looked at it as a bribe to voters with someone else’s money, and two things Trump knows best are bribery and using other peoples money to get what he wants. It was a no brainer.
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Nov 26, 2022 00:43
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