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Nenonen posted:The ghost ship Moskva There are Metro 2033 larpers fighting for DNR, so yeah.  Young Freud posted:While the book series is written by a Russian, the games are made by Ukrainians and diverges from the books. The author vocally opposes the war, by the way, and had to leave the country.
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Nov 25, 2022 21:20
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Young Freud posted:While the book series is written by a Russian, the games are made by Ukrainians and diverges from the books. Is there anything beyond the Roadside Picnic short story? Stalker is a good game series but some of the devs are fighting on the front lines now, so I'm not sure if the sequel will ever be released. Herstory Begins Now posted:Tangibly idk how many more collapses Russia can handle and hell one big collapse that cuts the occupied territory in half would be a huge blow to Russia's strategic situation. With that said, I don't believe that it is clear yet if this is as existential for Putin as people like to make it out to be. It likely is and certainly failure in Ukraine would make Putin's position immensely worse and would give incredible fuel to those opposing him, but idk if there's really a clear replacement or person actually prepared to remove him. Most of the people who would be threats to Putin are currently being grossly enriched by Putin remaining in power. I agree that there are always warning signs because governments don't collapse on their own without facing any crisis, but I think the larger point is this where we can't really tell what is a crisis the government can weather and what will cause a collapse. Taking Gaddafi's example in Libya or the current protests in Iran, we can't really say that the government starts being in trouble when the protests get to a certain size or anything. It just happens when the scales finally tip. Edit: I feel I have to repost the Stalker dev diary from earlier this year, I can definitely see Russians getting in trouble for playing their game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxcfxdG22pg&t=176s WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 21:40 on Nov 25, 2022 |
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Nov 25, 2022 21:24
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Takes a real brain idiot to read metro-2033 and come away thinking war is cool and good
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Nov 25, 2022 21:37
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WarpedLichen posted:Is there anything beyond the Roadside Picnic short story? Stalker is a good game series but some of the devs are fighting on the front lines now, so I'm not sure if the sequel will ever be released. I agree that there is a certain special something that has to happen for stuff to fully kick off, but I just outright reject the suggestion that almost anything about revolutions or overthrows is particularly spontaneous or not easily foreseen by anyone actually looking. Sure, the Arab spring looked spontaneous and 'why now?!' to a bunch of foreign observers unfamiliar with the region or day to day life there... that doesn't mean it actually came out of left field because it emphatically did not. In most cases you had rapidly rising food prices combining with high rates of corruption and particularly brutal repression and lots of young, unemployed people facing lovely labor markets and few other options. Opposition groups were better networked and organized and found significant amounts of support both domestically and abroad. In most cases it was an essentially textbook situation likely to cause societal unrest or upheaval. Trying to guess the exact timing or precise way things will go is probably fairly pointless in most situations as that's just the nature of incredibly complex systems. Still, it's not unknowable and on a fundamental level you're looking for whether there is a destabilizing force stronger than the authority holding the state together and, significantly, if there is any significant opposition to fill the void and for resistance to rally behind. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 21:53 on Nov 25, 2022 |
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Nov 25, 2022 21:38
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Zwabu posted:Don't most tyrants look unassailable right up until the point that they get toppled though? Sometimes yes, sometimes no. For instance it was very clear in Zimbabwe that Mugabe was inches away from getting couped, but it did take about 3 years of it being very clear he had thin reins of power -- ever since he announced his wife as his successor. The overthrow of Bouteflika was also telegraphed for years, but again it was about 6 years that Le Pouvoir was literally doing "Weekend at Bernies" with Bouteflika's embalmed corpse propped up in a wheelchair until they finally let him rest in a vegetative coma. The overthrow of Ould Taya in Mauritania was also preceded by a couple years of major instability. Similar for the overthrow of Alpha Conde in Guinea, which was preceded by just under a year of major instability (albeit Condé had only just recently become a dictator, and I guess had not solidified his control). The other three though had, like Putin, been in undisputed dictatorial power for decades. I think it's actually more rare for dictators to suddenly fall in a surprise flash, like Ben Ali. It rather frequently seems to be preceded by prolonged major protests (Egypt) or civil conflict (Libya). Saladman fucked around with this message at 21:53 on Nov 25, 2022 |
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Nov 25, 2022 21:51
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The size of the protest is less important than how loyal the military is
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Nov 25, 2022 21:58
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FishBulbia posted:The size of the protest is less important than how loyal the military is Although military or political elites (or clergy in Iran) don't exist in a hermetically sealed vacuum, so if you have large unrest in a country there is a point where people the regime depend on will start thinking, "uh my family members are getting arrested and beaten up and even killed, maybe this government isn't the thing for me". But it's absolutely impossible to tell when that point is crossed. Putin looks really safe compared to Nicky II or Gorby, but then again people are used to different standards compared to what was passable in 1917 or 1991. Maybe being offered a vegetable batch just isn't enough of a compensation for a lost job in 2022?
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Nov 25, 2022 22:13
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HonorableTB posted:Hah, I was checking out Perun's channel and I had no idea he used to be an exclusively video game channel until the war started. Since then he's done exclusively war related videos When you think about it, it makes a lot of sense that the sort of person who not only plays Dominions, but also makes video content talking about the relative strengths of different Dominions nations and how strategy applies to them, would be the kind of person well-suited to analyzing and explaining actual military strategy. That doesn't stop it from being weirdly funny, though.
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Nov 25, 2022 22:14
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The Lord of Hats posted:When you think about it, it makes a lot of sense that the sort of person who not only plays Dominions, but also makes video content talking about the relative strengths of different Dominions nations and how strategy applies to them, would be the kind of person well-suited to analyzing and explaining actual military strategy. That doesn't stop it from being weirdly funny, though. His actual job is as an analyst in the Australian defense industry. He hasn't been specific, but he's commented a few times that making and presenting PowerPoint presentations is pretty much what he does all day. He also has said he has a degree in Eastern European military history (again nothing more specific), had a Ukrainian grandfather, and his family comes from Croatia. That's as much as I've gleaned from the asides he makes during his videos. He knows his poo poo pretty thoroughly.
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Nov 25, 2022 22:29
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Deteriorata posted:His actual job is as an analyst in the Australian defense industry. He hasn't been specific, but he's commented a few times that making and presenting PowerPoint presentations is pretty much what he does all day. He is probably extremely identifiable to his industry stakeholders while remaining anonymous to people casually googling him.
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Nov 25, 2022 22:47
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FishBulbia posted:Takes a real brain idiot to read metro-2033 and come away thinking war is cool and good I’ve only played the games but they hammer the same lesson into you
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Nov 25, 2022 22:53
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cinci zoo sniper posted:You seem to be asking the same questions on repeat, please stop doing that in this thread. That's seriously not what I am trying to do I'm doing but I'll drop it.
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Nov 25, 2022 23:08
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Deteriorata posted:His actual job is as an analyst in the Australian defense industry. He hasn't been specific, but he's commented a few times that making and presenting PowerPoint presentations is pretty much what he does all day. Croatia and Ukraine? I wonder if that happened in Australia... or Austria.
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Nov 25, 2022 23:18
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Russia is still holding on to the crescent from the 2014 era Novorossia propaganda maps, possibly minus Cherson, not sure whose control they put that under on those maps. Ah, and minus Odessa. But there's a connection to Crimea and it's decently pretty borders. You can absolutely spin that as a W of sorts. Ukraine has a bit of a nut to crack to dislodge them from that area sans the advantages they had during the Charkiv and Cherson offensives. If they get deteched a bit with Lancet - depending on where the balance of RU production of them and UA development of countermeasures ends up - they might find themselves unable to do it. Ofc if the Russians on the other hand fail to find cold weather gear for all the mobiks that might also be the ballgame in a month or two.
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Nov 25, 2022 23:59
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aphid_licker posted:Charkiv and Cherson now that, that's a strange transliteration
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Nov 26, 2022 00:26
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aphid_licker posted:Russia is still holding on to the crescent from the 2014 era Novorossia propaganda maps, possibly minus Cherson, not sure whose control they put that under on those maps. Ah, and minus Odessa. But there's a connection to Crimea and it's decently pretty borders. You can absolutely spin that as a W of sorts. Well yeah. If you asked me what part of Ukraine Russia would annex at the start of this, id draw something like that. (not that I thought they would really annex anything, I always thought it would be regime change) They still control 1/5th of the country including the most industrially productive parts so there really is no way Ukraine negotiates right now and comes away seeming like the victor.
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Nov 26, 2022 00:38
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VSOKUL girl posted:now that, that's a strange transliteration Romance languages do that, alongside Ucraina I believe.
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Nov 26, 2022 00:42
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VSOKUL girl posted:now that, that's a strange transliteration There are quite a few languages that don’t use K
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Nov 26, 2022 02:42
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Orthanc6 posted:There's an estimated 500+ deaths for Iran's protests but that regime looks to be hanging on thus far... yet around 100 deaths on the Maidan ousted Yanukovych within weeks. The thing that makes me think that Putin would die in office (even in the event of a complete capitulation of the Russian military in Ukraine) is that he has an extensive internal security force that is loyal to him and aggressive at going after people who are perceived to be against him. To the point that even the billionaires, who are usually nearly untouchable even in the West, get tossed out of windows every now and again. On top of that if things get really bad and parts of the Russian military rebel there is Wagner and Kadyrov's forces which are functionally private armies that are either loyal to Putin directly or close enough to it to not matter for most circumstances. In order for Putin to get ousted those forces loyal to him would have to turn on him and I just don't see what would cause it. From what I can tell (extremely not a expert there) with Iran their internal security forces are also pretty extensive and usually fiercely loyal to the leadership as well. In some cases they're getting beat down in the streets during major riots but generally seem to be holding together and are, unfortunately, doing their job of suppressing attempts to rebel on a organized national level.
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Nov 26, 2022 07:53
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There's an Ukrainian Territorial Defense unit using Clear Sky faction patches. Swamp Boys in action. No idea if they are STALKER players or just like the patch and the colour scheme.
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Nov 26, 2022 09:55
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VSOKUL girl posted:now that, that's a strange transliteration English has a really garbage transliteration "system," which is weird, since so many good local ones exist (in languages expecting a land war with the USSR). At least it's not as bad as Persian, though...
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Nov 26, 2022 11:06
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Idk where OP got those transliterations from but Charkiv and Cherson are how they are transliterated to Dutch.
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Nov 26, 2022 11:21
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https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1596389927733927937 Posted without comment.
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Nov 26, 2022 11:26
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I suppose it would make a certain kind of sense, if true. You've got all these aging nuclear munitions you're paying upkeep on, doing you no favours in your current war, hanging around waiting to be decommissioned. Firing them off frees you from the upkeep and might even do some damage to the enemy. Of course, it might lower your credibility as a nuclear-armed state, but the ICBMs have that covered anyway. Until some bright spark decides to take the nukes off those, anyway.
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Nov 26, 2022 12:30
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spankmeister posted:Idk where OP got those transliterations from but Charkiv and Cherson are how they are transliterated to Dutch. If you want weird transliterations they are "Harkova" and "Herson" in Finnish.
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Nov 26, 2022 12:53
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Wiki says these things can be armed with conventional warheads and they fired a few off during the Syrian war. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kh-55
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Nov 26, 2022 12:53
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Keisari posted:If you want weird transliterations they are "Harkova" and "Herson" in Finnish. Should really be Harkiva now (or Harkiiva?), Harkova sounds like the Russian name for it. (Kharkov vs Kharkiv) e: On Dutch transliterations; our system is a bit... weird. For example; the transliteration of Khrushchev is "Chroesjtsjov". Yes, the щ gets transliterated to "sjtsj".... So much so that you often see the English transliterations used in Dutch writings. spankmeister fucked around with this message at 12:58 on Nov 26, 2022 |
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Nov 26, 2022 12:54
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spankmeister posted:e: On Dutch transliterations; our system is a bit... weird. For example; the transliteration of Khrushchev is "Chroesjtsjov". Yes, the щ gets transliterated to "sjtsj".... Tsj is honestly not that far off, I don't think the sound it's trying to mimic exsists in Germanic languages.
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Nov 26, 2022 13:17
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Groda posted:English has a really garbage transliteration "system," which is weird, since so many good local ones exist (in languages expecting a land war with the USSR). i thought it was an official standard from the soviet government for general cyrillic->latin stuff and borrowed from german conventions half the time, hence "shch" sure, it is stupid sometimes, but at least it's familiar
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Nov 26, 2022 13:22
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Keisari posted:If you want weird transliterations they are "Harkova" and "Herson" in Finnish. That’s actually very close to the originals - their Russian pronunciation, at least. spankmeister posted:Yes, the щ gets transliterated to "sjtsj".... EU should trade the Netherlands for Ukraine to Russia. VSOKUL girl posted:i thought it was an official standard from the soviet government for general cyrillic->latin stuff and borrowed from german conventions half the time, hence "shch" There have historically been several competing Soviet standards for how to preform transliterations. I believe in present day Russia there are 4 or 5 different methods in use simultaneously, with not even a uniform method enforced for all of governmental use.
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Nov 26, 2022 14:02
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MikeC posted:You think he could survive a total defeat and remain in power? I suspect he is all in on this because the moment the war ends, if he doesn't have anything to show for it, it might literally be curtains for him. Putin isn't in power, the KGB is. And the KGB isn't going away.
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Nov 26, 2022 14:07
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Nenonen posted:But it's absolutely impossible to tell when that point is crossed. Putin looks really safe compared to Nicky II or Gorby, but then again people are used to different standards compared to what was passable in 1917 or 1991. Maybe being offered a vegetable batch just isn't enough of a compensation for a lost job in 2022? The other thing is life in Russia right now is really good for the average person by historical standards, you don't really see unrest generally until major centers start missing meals. Until famine is back (boys, it's good again) I'm not sure we'll see the massive upheavals people like to talk about.
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Nov 26, 2022 15:44
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slurm posted:boys, it's good again Excuse me?
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Nov 26, 2022 15:48
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New York Times finally featured a noteworthy piece on the state of donated American artillery equipment in the war. Apparently 1/3 of the howitzers are out of action being repaired at anytime. Some interesting tidbits here and there and worth a skim.
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Nov 26, 2022 15:52
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DTurtle posted:https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1596389927733927937 I knew they'd eventually start cannibalizing their nuclear stockpile. All that poo poo is dual-purpose, because it saves development resources developing two separate airframes for conventional and nuclear plus it makes it harder for opposition to determine what's a conventional weapon vs. a nuke. It's just never thought they'd go ahead and pull those warheads out. Also, holy gently caress, no warhead, just kinetic impact?! They don't even have the warheads to swap them to conventional use?
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Nov 26, 2022 15:58
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cinci zoo sniper posted:EU should trade the Netherlands for Ukraine to Russia. 
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Nov 26, 2022 16:00
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This seems significant. https://twitter.com/MavrUA/status/1596512484974006273 Makei's been Lukashenko's foreign minister for a long time. I don't think he was very old either.
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Nov 26, 2022 16:14
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:This seems significant. defenestrationitis can strike even young people
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Nov 26, 2022 16:22
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Belarusian foreign minister Vladimir Makey suddenly died.
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Nov 26, 2022 16:22
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Young Freud posted:Also, holy gently caress, no warhead, just kinetic impact?! They don't even have the warheads to swap them to conventional use? Maybe they just have plenty of old rusty garbage, so using them as decoys makes sense.
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Nov 26, 2022 16:23
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