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What is the most powerful flying bug?
This poll is closed.
🦋 15 3.71%
🦇 115 28.47%
🪰 12 2.97%
🐦 67 16.58%
dragonfly 94 23.27%
🦟 14 3.47%
🐝 87 21.53%
Total: 404 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique


There’s a paper about it, but Russia and China use conventional versions of nuclear weapons, launched from the same platforms. So, for example, ballistic missiles with high explosive warheads or Tu-22s launching ASMs with penetrating warheads. Anyways, this causes some stress for US planners because it makes it harder for them to know what Russia and China’s nuclear posture is or something.

It was like a 30 page paper but the title or even name of the concept escapes me. Ambiguous weapons? Something like that.

To me it seemed kind of silly to be bothered that they found an economic way to produce both nuclear and conventional weapons, to use bombers and submarines in the conventional role etc. but apparently the US only does this with the submarine launched Tomahawk so it’s trickery or something.

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Corky Romanovsky
Oct 1, 2006

Soiled Meat
Fighter deployed nuclear weapons also exist in the US arsenal, so ambiguity exists there as well.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Corky Romanovsky posted:

Fighter deployed nuclear weapons also exist in the US arsenal, so ambiguity exists there as well.

For sure, I don’t really understand why it was considered underhanded of Russian and Chinese weapons to develop this capability, since the conventional Tomahawk predates similar weapons in their arsenal by like two decades.

The premise was that it’s hard to know if Russia is preparing or even executing a nuclear strike, but as you said, that’s true of the US as well.

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY
https://twitter.com/thenobodyz/status/1597895930165878786?t=emagHCQTEDVYJFPvLup06Q&s=19
???

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold
meh I’d chalk it up to ursala screwing up or not knowing the difference between causalities and fatalities

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Didn't someone from US already mention the hundred thousand figure a couple of days ago?

Corky Romanovsky
Oct 1, 2006

Soiled Meat

If 100k Ukrainian officers have been killed, how many enlisted/drafted

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

https://twitter.com/NeccaMonitor1/status/1597912715569209347

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Ok, this has to be a bit now. He can't possibly think America is going to rebuild Ukraine for a trillion dollars right.

Zodium
Jun 19, 2004

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Ok, this has to be a bit now. He can't possibly think America is going to rebuild Ukraine for a trillion dollars right.

he's offering the country for sale.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
my "I'm Ukrainian" hoodie is raising a lot of questions already answered by my hoodie

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Corky Romanovsky posted:

If 100k Ukrainian officers have been killed, how many enlisted/drafted

She must have misspoke, there were less than 5k officer casualties in the BEF in 1914, and of those the KIA is the usual smaller amount.

Brandon Proust
Jun 22, 2006

"Like many intellectuals, he was incapable of scoring a simple goal in a simple way"

Frosted Flake posted:

For sure, I don’t really understand why it was considered underhanded of Russian and Chinese weapons to develop this capability, since the conventional Tomahawk predates similar weapons in their arsenal by like two decades.

quote:

Russian and Chinese

Fat-Lip-Sum-41.mp3
Nov 15, 2003
Country with Nuclear First Strike Doctrine: You never know when the Russians or Chinese will launch a nuke!

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Is It a Nuke?: Pre-Launch Ambiguity and Inadvertent Escalation

https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Acton_NukeorNot_final.pdf

"Ambiguity about whether a weapon is nuclear-armed prior to its launch is an underappreciated, serious, and growing danger. Rising geopolitical tensions and the decay of arms control are exacerbating the risk that such pre-launch warhead ambiguity could lead to nuclear use in a crisis or conflict. Recent developments in technology—as well as potential future advances, such as the development of ambiguous intercontinental missiles—further add to the danger."

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

he would steal 99.9% of that one trillion. the most corrupt person ever.

Comrade Koba
Jul 2, 2007

Throatwarbler posted:

One of the pictures early in the war of the reddit brigade had a bunch of FNCs in it, but who the in the world other than like Indonesia (?) even adopted that piece of crap? No surprise no one can find any.


:sweden:

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

I thought the FNC was fine, it just happened to come out when the US had a stranglehold on the international arms market in that calibre? Not dissimilar from the problems the G36, FAMAS, AR70/90 etc. face. They're alright, but Washington would prefer you buy American.

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

Corky Romanovsky posted:

If 100k Ukrainian officers have been killed, how many enlisted/drafted

there seem to be four interpretations here:

1: she misspoke and meant "soldiers", so she's saying that the ukrainian army's suffered 100,000 KIA
2: she misspoke and meant "casualties", so she's saying that ukraine's suffered 100,000 officer casualties
3: she misspoke and meant "soldiers" and "casualties", so she's saying that the ukrainian army's suffered 100,000 casualties all told
4: she didn't misspeak at all and a staggering proportion of the ukrainian population was made up of military officers, a good chunk of whom are now dead

imo the most reasonable interpretations are the ones where ukraine *hasn't* suffered insane casualties to her officer corps. 100,000 casualties all-told on the ukrainian side seems low, but like a reasonable propaganda figure. 100,000 KIA on the ukrainian side seems *possible* if quite high, but i cannot imagine that anyone would think it a good idea to actually say it out loud like that. i think she probably meant to say 3 from my list above. ursula von der leyen is not an especially smart politician, even having been minister of defence in germany it's perfectly conceivable that she'd mess up basic terms like this on a bad day

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

you don’t think saying how many people have died is a good idea ?

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

*i* think so but i'm not ride-or-die on this war

Hatebag
Jun 17, 2008


Cpt_Obvious posted:

Ok, this has to be a bit now. He can't possibly think America is going to rebuild Ukraine for a trillion dollars right.

https://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/tad/balmov2.aspx?type=TOTAL
If I'm reading this right, the total imf outstanding credit is only $108 billion, so a trillion seems like a big ask. Looks like the us disburses between $30 and $50 billion per year as grants as well

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

euphronius posted:

you don’t think saying how many people have died is a good idea ?

Admittedly, I guess they have to put something out there at some point or they let the Russians control the narrative. I think it is reasonable to assume the real number is higher but the Ukrainian government has pulled in conscripts and militia to make up the difference.

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

https://twitter.com/HromadskeUA/status/1597904031409614848

quote:

What do they say in Ukraine?

Bohdan Senyk told us that he is "not authorized to comment on the statements of politicians, especially at the international level."

"Information about [losses of] personnel is for official use and has restrictions, given the security of the operation. This is a question, in fact, to this official, if there is a statement, where this data comes from and what it is based on," he said.

The spokesman for the President of Ukraine Serhiy Nikiforov told us that the figure of casualties mentioned by the EC President is "fantastically far from reality".

"The only thing I can say is that true actual figures can be reported by the military or the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. But this is sensitive information, and they will do it when the moment is right," he stressed.

The only real news here is how quickly they tried to squash it tbh.

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

100,000 ukrainian casualties all told is a good number. it's basically believable and it's a big sacrifice, but it's not an unacceptable level of carnage. 100,000 KIA means that we can assume (given a ratio of 3:1 or 4:1 WIA/KIA) that a full percent of ukraine's nominal pre-invasion population have been made casualties in the war. that's a very unpleasant number, especially when you consider that there hasn't been a good ukrainian census in a long while, let alone how many people have fled or live in the russian occupied zones. france suffered 6 million casualties in WW1 out of a population of about 40 million (15% of the whole population - even considering that some guys got wounded multiple times, *jesus*), so there's a way to go to get there, but you really do not want to even be comparable to any belligerent in WW1 in the year of our lord 2022

the LDR must be *reeling*, proportionally. this topic is a huge bummer

Corky Romanovsky
Oct 1, 2006

Soiled Meat

V. Illych L. posted:

100,000 ukrainian casualties all told is a good number.

:chloe:

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

speng31b posted:

If you can find any evidence they're being used for exchanges I'd be curious to see that. I haven't seen anything about prisoner exchanges involving SBU-arrested "internal collaborators," but ive seen a lot of evidence of them being put up for decades of jail or extrajudicial killing

https://twitter.com/NatalieSmal/status/1597954682227658752

Edit: https://tsn.ua/ato/za-prikladom-medvedchuka-zatrimanih-svyaschennikiv-upc-mp-mozhut-obminyati-na-polonenih-ukrayinciv-2213122.html

Spergin Morlock
Aug 8, 2009
Probation
Can't post for 4 hours!

lol

Corky Romanovsky
Oct 1, 2006

Soiled Meat
Wow, Russia saving lives of randos caught up in witch hunts.

speng31b
May 8, 2010


interesting, thanks for finding this. I wonder if they'll follow through (or more importantly if Russia will accept priests in exchange for soldiers -- which I suspect they may not).

I'm sure if Ukrainian intelligence can get them on board that would be ideal for them, since it fits their propaganda that all the priests they arrest are Kremlin spies.

Corky Romanovsky posted:

Wow, Russia saving lives of randos caught up in witch hunts.

no, if you read the articles it seems to be an announcement only from Ukrainian intelligence of intent, nothing about how realistic it is for Russia to accept.

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin
https://twitter.com/louischeung_hk/status/1597943654366482432?t=_VZqbGmGfI41X_Mit5RZvw&s=19

Tu95s now flying out of china

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

It’s an understatement to say it’s worrisome that Ukraine is now officially conducting this along the lines of a religious conflict.

speng31b
May 8, 2010

Frosted Flake posted:

It’s an understatement to say it’s worrisome that Ukraine is now officially conducting this along the lines of a religious conflict.

the last big church raid the SBU posted about got picked up by some Kyiv Post blue check types and added a bit about how all the Kremlin spy priests had been found in bed with gay lovers and their Russian papers nearby. Seemed a little over the top, even for this stuff.

Z the IVth
Jan 28, 2009

The trouble with your "expendable machines"
Fun Shoe

speng31b posted:

the last big church raid the SBU posted about got picked up by some Kyiv Post blue check types and added a bit about how all the Kremlin spy priests had been found in bed with gay lovers and their Russian papers nearby. Seemed a little over the top, even for this stuff.

Kyivstallnacht?

WoodrowSkillson
Feb 24, 2005

*Gestures at 60 years of Lions history*

supersnowman posted:

Isn't that also another caliber of ammunition to supply adding to the already massive clusterfuck their supply chain must be with the hodgepodge of different weapon system?

that directly benefits NATO. The more NATO guns and ammo that flood uninterrupted into Ukraine, another link between Ukraine and Russia is broken. the common weapons are a blessing and curse for both sides in this since if you capture an enemy depot you can then immediately just start using their stuff. Now when Russians capture a Ukrainian position, it possible a lot of the material is not suitable for use for exactly the above reason, meanwhile Ukrainians in the opposite situation can just ship all the Russian gear to units using it, while still getting their shipments of NATO ammo.

back before it seemed like the longer this went on the better it was for Russia, but now the tide has shifted and things like this are all piling on. I don't see how Russia manages to overcome the flood of western aid into the country without fighting a horrific war.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

WoodrowSkillson posted:

back before it seemed like the longer this went on the better it was for Russia, but now the tide has shifted and things like this are all piling on.

Russia being able to provide its own armaments while Ukraine is now totally dependant on outside actors is not a point in Ukraine’s favour. Not only in terms of the logistics, but because it’s contingent on foreign politics. Russia can provide as much arms as it wants, which may or may not be as much as it needs, while Ukraine has had its ambitions thwarted several times as MiGs, Patriots and other systems are withheld.

This doesn’t translate directly into a military advantage as Russia has its own internal politics to contend with, but 5.45 flows from Russian factories, 5.56 depends on the voters of Western Europe (notionally).

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely

There was a news article earlier about how the Ukrainians don't have any Russian PoW's to exchange (could be because the Ukrainian army is murdering them on the occasions when they've tried to surrender) whereas there are over 5,000 Ukrainians still in Russian prisons, so Ukraine was going to be looking to round up civilians to try and trade for their soldiers.. I guess this is the result of those efforts.

speng31b
May 8, 2010

Starsfan posted:

There was a news article earlier about how the Ukrainians don't have any Russian PoW's to exchange (could be because the Ukrainian army is murdering them on the occasions when they've tried to surrender) whereas there are over 5,000 Ukrainians still in Russian prisons, so Ukraine was going to be looking to round up civilians to try and trade for their soldiers.. I guess this is the result of those efforts.

it makes sense in principle for Ukraine, but I'm not sure what incentive Russia has to accept. Presumably the SBU propaganda about how priests and collaborators are all Kremlin spies is exaggerated, and in some cases they'd just be offering to exchange the Ukrainian citizens they don't like very much.

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Russia doesn't need to accept it, but with all the political games Kremlin is playing it doesn't seem like an unreasonable gamble from Ukrainian side.

And like I mentioned the article uses the example of Medvedchuk as this kind of scheme already being caried out.

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Penisaurus Sex
Feb 3, 2009

asdfghjklpoiuyt

Starsfan posted:

... why not aim to strengthen relations with Russia to avoid a war if you don't want it? what is the point of strengthening relations with your "friends" who will just let you bleed to death while not providing any real help when the time comes the same as they are doing to Ukraine.

I feel like i'm taking crazy pills

“Don't forget the real business of war is buying and selling. The murdering and violence are self-policing, and can be entrusted to non-professionals. The mass nature of wartime death is useful in many ways. It serves as spectacle, as diversion from the real movements of the War. It provides raw material to be recorded into History, so that children may be taught History as sequences of violence, battle after battle, and be more prepared for the adult world. Best of all, mass death's a stimolous to just ordinary folks, little fellows, to try 'n' grab a piece of that Pie while they're still here to gobble it up. The true war is a celebration of markets.”

I think about this Pynchon quote a lot.

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