|
Loezi posted:Our notes on the Russia of 2022 are simply "Join NATO ASAP" so I dunno how much help that'll be for Ukraine You've also got notes for Imperial Russia, and Russia under Stalin, both of which are applicable to the current situation. Unfortunately, the notes on Cold War Russia probably aren't applicable any more.
|
#
?
Nov 30, 2022 13:48
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 5, 2024 11:35 |
|
|
A.o.D. posted:You've also got notes for Imperial Russia, and Russia under Stalin, both of which are applicable to the current situation. Unfortunately, the notes on Cold War Russia probably aren't applicable any more. Yea the geographic challenge faced by Ukraine bordering a hostile Russia is massive. Not that Finland isn't similarly exposed but I'd much rather defend my cold muskeg peat bogs from bastards with no skis vs trying to stop the more refined Russian effort at UKR v3.0 2025 edition with more mechanized forces and actual officers hardened by combat, while your border is rolling farmland for the most part.
|
|
#
?
Nov 30, 2022 16:27
|
|
|
Ukraine has a far clearer path to post-war rebuild than Russia does, despite being where all the damage is. With a presumably new Russian ruler and regime, they’d have to walk a tightrope of conciliation and appeasement to the rest of the world while placating domestic nationalists . Foreign capital will eventually return anyway just from greed, but the level of risk they’ll have to price in will be onerous to Russia.
|
|
#
?
Nov 30, 2022 16:33
|
|
|
Zelensky has been pretty clear about his vision for a post-war Ukraine - he has explicitly invoked Israel as a model. A heavily defense-focused country with an expectation of universal service and an emphasis on self-reliance but one that's still engaged as a peer in the international system. How that interacts with Ukrainian nationalist movements, and the risk for this evolving into a hard-line nationalist government over time... well, Israel is a demonstration of that too unfortunately.
|
|
#
?
Nov 30, 2022 17:17
|
|
|
https://rusi.org/explore-our-resear...uary-july-2022/ https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf I wonder where they are getting the numbers for this quote:Despite the importance of UAVs to remaining competitive, their attrition rates were extremely high. Of all UAVs used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the first three phases of the war covered by this study (first 90 days of the war), around 90% were destroyed. The average life expectancy of a quadcopter remained around three flights. The average life expectancy of a fixed-wing UAV was around six flights.
|
|
#
?
Nov 30, 2022 17:21
|
|
|
Ukraine has also had a clear public will to pivot westward and align economically with the EU. A post-war marshall plan type scenario is unlikely to face significant pushback there, and in fact will kickstart the desired economic realignment. It doesn't hurt that there are nations in Eastern Europe that are eager to participate, and that there is significant goodwill in the US and Great Britain to draw on. Ukraine's position going forward should be far less fraught than Israel's.
|
|
#
?
Nov 30, 2022 17:23
|
|
|
IPCRESS posted:How do you put a country back together after you have thrown your insane, expansionist, genocidal neighbor back into their own front yard? I'm assuming Russia will continue to lob unguided missiles across the border just to keep the NATO option completely off the table. I think it will eventually settle into a situation like Korea. The border will become a heavily armed DMZ with NATO troops facing off against a nuclear-armed failed state Hopefully Ukraine is able to succeed financially as well as South Korea.
|
|
#
?
Nov 30, 2022 17:48
|
|
|
I feel like one thing Ukraine is almost certainly going to be fighting for post-war is security guarantees - preferably NATO membership, but anything they can get will do. Militarizing the country might fend off the Russians if they come knocking again, but it'd be better yet not to have to fend them off at all because they're in the NATO nuclear umbrella. The question is who might be able and willing to provide such guarantees? Actual NATO membership still seems unlikely despite the goodwill Ukraine has earned given spoiler states like Hungary and Turkey, and even leaving spoilers aside providing a defensive pact to a nation who has a demonstrable enemy quite likely to attack again at some point and potentially actually trigger the pact is a heck of a commitment for any country. That same issue complicates any other foreign guarantees they might look for - anyone agreeing to protect Ukraine has to face the non-zero possibility of Russia attacking again anyways in the future. Who's willing to run that risk - especially nuclear powers worried about escalation if the guarantee is triggered?
|
|
#
?
Nov 30, 2022 17:49
|
|
|
Tomn posted:I feel like one thing Ukraine is almost certainly going to be fighting for post-war is security guarantees - preferably NATO membership, but anything they can get will do. Militarizing the country might fend off the Russians if they come knocking again, but it'd be better yet not to have to fend them off at all because they're in the NATO nuclear umbrella. The question is who might be able and willing to provide such guarantees? Actual NATO membership still seems unlikely despite the goodwill Ukraine has earned given spoiler states like Hungary and Turkey, and even leaving spoilers aside providing a defensive pact to a nation who has a demonstrable enemy quite likely to attack again at some point and potentially actually trigger the pact is a heck of a commitment for any country. That same issue complicates any other foreign guarantees they might look for - anyone agreeing to protect Ukraine has to face the non-zero possibility of Russia attacking again anyways in the future. Who's willing to run that risk - especially nuclear powers worried about escalation if the guarantee is triggered? Even if Turkey and Hungary try to play games Ukraine will be under the US protection at the end of this. You base some V Corps and a BCT or two in Kyiv and Dnipro and Russia really can't risk the escalation to go back in. You get that you've got 80% of the benefits of joining NATO for them.
|
|
#
?
Nov 30, 2022 17:57
|
|
|
Right up until someone like Trump pulls the same stunt as Trump did to the Kurds. Just suddenly telling the whole force to pick up their poo poo and gently caress off, leaving the local population to deal with the very curious Russian tourists coming to loot the abandoned base for trinkets.
|
|
#
?
Nov 30, 2022 18:00
|
|
|
stackofflapjacks posted:while your border is rolling farmland for the most part. Sounds like there are more tractors there, problem solved.
|
|
#
?
Nov 30, 2022 18:15
|
|
|
You should 100% never depend on the U.S. for protection unless you are in the U.S. And only then if you are a wealthy, white, land owner. In the U.S. Explicitly in the U.S. Everyone else? 
|
|
#
?
Nov 30, 2022 18:36
|
|
|
golden bubble posted:I wonder where they are getting the numbers for this Have you read what they say? quote:This report is methodologically problematic. It draws on the operational data accumulated by the General Staff of the UAF during the conflict, which was made available to the authors. A significant proportion of this data cannot be made public but was used to inform the conclusions of this report. A good example is Ukrainian losses, which are factored into the conclusions reached as regards the relative effectiveness of tactics and capabilities but cannot be disclosed as they remain operationally sensitive. Other data that is cited was sometimes obtained through methods and sources of collection that are sensitive. The authors have considered the data in the context of its method of collection and the corresponding confidence in its accuracy.
|
|
#
?
Nov 30, 2022 20:10
|
|
|
SerthVarnee posted:Right up until someone like Trump pulls the same stunt as Trump did to the Kurds. The US, Russia, and UK were all supposed to come to Ukraine's aid if anyone ever invaded them or a couple other countries - I don't think anyone is going to design their national security apparatus on the presumed continuing good will of their neighbors or signatories. Ukraine will want broader economic deals that will allow them to rebuild their own economy and fuel their own war machine with as little foreign input or participation as they can possibly manage.
|
|
#
?
Nov 30, 2022 20:39
|
|
|
The economic and political process to rebuild I get, but how do you handle the physical side? Assuming complete Ukranian victory with Russia told to gently caress the gently caress off, the remaining question is "What stops Russia from just missile striking transformer stations for the next decade?" and similar other attacks to make Ukraine impossible to rebuild. It's Russia, if Putin wants to keep going they'll be novichok-ing public figures as long as it's possible.
|
|
#
?
Nov 30, 2022 21:16
|
|
|
bird food bathtub posted:The economic and political process to rebuild I get, but how do you handle the physical side? Assuming complete Ukranian victory with Russia told to gently caress the gently caress off, the remaining question is "What stops Russia from just missile striking transformer stations for the next decade?" and similar other attacks to make Ukraine impossible to rebuild. It's Russia, if Putin wants to keep going they'll be novichok-ing public figures as long as it's possible. Ukraine gets all of it's land back, then negotiates a ceasefire. Why would Russia accept a ceasefire? Well if Crimea and the Donbass are gone we can only assume Russia's military and economy would be in apocalyptic conditions, and having only losses to show for the entire "special operation" someone is going to cut losses somewhere eventually. With a ceasefire and no more contested territories Ukraine can apply to join NATO and get a real guarantee of security. If Ukraine can't do any one of those things, then we can expect this war to drag on in some way until one side loses support. Which might be decades. It's a miracle created by the people of Ukraine that the more ideal option is even plausible.
|
|
#
?
Nov 30, 2022 22:24
|
|
|
golden bubble posted:https://rusi.org/explore-our-resear...uary-july-2022/ That's been a pretty common theme in interviews with people piloting drones. Notably they emphasize that experienced drone pilots can often keep them alive for longer, but that the overall life expectancy of the drones is measured in days or at most weeks. It makes sense insofar as they're predominately using civilian drones that aren't even remotely designed to be rugged enough to last on a battlefield, much less against anti-drone systems or against actual air defense systems. It's also hard to overstate just how many air defense resources Russia had in the first month of the war still. Very little info makes it out about how Ukraine uses high end drone systems. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 22:56 on Nov 30, 2022 |
|
#
?
Nov 30, 2022 22:41
|
|
|
Herstory Begins Now posted:That's been a pretty common theme in interviews with people piloting drones. Notably they emphasize that experienced drone pilots can often keep them alive for longer, but that the overall life expectancy of the drones is measured in days or at most weeks. It makes sense insofar as they're predominately using civilian drones that aren't even remotely designed to be rugged enough to last on a battlefield, much less against anti-drone systems or against actual air defense systems. That honestly strikes me as pretty good for consumer-grade flight hardware operated in a warzone.
|
|
#
?
Nov 30, 2022 22:47
|
|
|
Tiny Timbs posted:That honestly strikes me as pretty good for consumer-grade flight hardware operated in a warzone. Cost of some COTS poo poo just powerful enough to fly a grenade and release system over top of some poor bastard taking a dump in the woods, pretty decent ROI even before you get into the chaos dunking them square through a sunroof or tank hatch.
|
|
#
?
Nov 30, 2022 23:54
|
|
|
Grip it and rip it posted:The US, Russia, and UK were all supposed to come to Ukraine's aid if anyone ever invaded them or a couple other countries IIRC that's not the case, they merely pledged to respect Ukraine's independence and non-nuclear status.
|
|
#
?
Dec 1, 2022 00:39
|
|
|
EasilyConfused posted:IIRC that's not the case, they merely pledged to respect Ukraine's independence and non-nuclear status. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum The wording of the memorandum in question is exceptionally weak, and certainly doesn't require military intervention on Ukraine's behalf. What little is provided for in the memorandum (it's not even a real treaty) can easily be argued as having been fulfilled by both the US and UK, since both have enacted sanctions and gone before the UN to protest Russia's misadventures in Donbass going back to 2014.
|
|
#
?
Dec 1, 2022 00:56
|
|
|
Diarrhea Elemental posted:Cost of some COTS poo poo just powerful enough to fly a grenade and release system over top of some poor bastard taking a dump in the woods, pretty decent ROI even before you get into the chaos dunking them square through a sunroof or tank hatch. This is just refinement of what ISIL put out. They had a multi-million dollar drone program utilizing COTS and 3D print files, and put it out open source, where plans and designs have been refined and utilized by groups all over the world. In Iraq, the sound of "toy" drones brought the same terror to Iraqi forces as the thrum of a gun ship does to our enemies. This is interesting to me, because it's re-teaching ancient Infantry TTPs- it's the exact opposite of what the US has been fighting, and it's making a lot of troops and leaders realize that we have been very lucky, and very lacking in what war is. We got spoiled by the amount of control we had at war.
|
|
#
?
Dec 1, 2022 01:22
|
|
|
EasilyConfused posted:IIRC that's not the case, they merely pledged to respect Ukraine's independence and non-nuclear status. What would the value of a treaty that pledges to respect a country's interdependence and non-nuclear status even do? That just sounds like having normalized relations with a non-nuclear power.
|
|
#
?
Dec 1, 2022 02:04
|
|
|
Grip it and rip it posted:What would the value of a treaty that pledges to respect a country's interdependence and non-nuclear status even do? That just sounds like having normalized relations with a non-nuclear power. It's not a treaty. Normalized relations for a post-Soviet state were the whole point.
|
|
#
?
Dec 1, 2022 03:06
|
|
|
A.o.D. posted:You've also got notes for Imperial Russia, and Russia under Stalin, both of which are applicable to the current situation. Unfortunately, the notes on Cold War Russia probably aren't applicable any more.
|
|
#
?
Dec 1, 2022 16:42
|
|
|
Herman Merman posted:The first set of notes involved quietly aligning with Imperial Germany, and the second one with Nazi Germany, so they might not be all that desirable right now. Notes, not instruction manuals.
|
|
#
?
Dec 1, 2022 18:56
|
|
|
The latest video from 'Military Aviation History' on youtube is outstanding - its a senior fellow from the Royal United Services Institute talking about the current state of the air-war in Ukraine. Its so night-and-day compared to usual shallow talking heads on youtube. Lots of good detail that I've never heard before with reasoned analysis from an expert - not just throwing out numbers that someone found on a wiki page. Highly recommended, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lot6i8bqvpw
|
|
#
?
Dec 1, 2022 20:53
|
|
|
RUSI is one of those low key (until a war happens) areas where the UK really punches above its weight in terms of doing and publishing research and analysis.
|
|
#
?
Dec 1, 2022 21:45
|
|
|
Baconroll posted:The latest video from 'Military Aviation History' on youtube is outstanding - its a senior fellow from the Royal United Services Institute talking about the current state of the air-war in Ukraine. Meteor-slinging Gripen Ukrainian air force in being would own so much
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2022 00:53
|
|
|
aphid_licker posted:Meteor-slinging Gripen Ukrainian air force in being would own so much Hayard-Günnes now accepting payment in hryvnia
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2022 02:43
|
|
|
Counterpoint: the only way to get those in under a year would be to take them off the Swedish Air Force's active inventory. I'd be down for it, but I'm not sure Sweden would be.
|
|
#
?
Dec 2, 2022 18:23
|
|
|
mlmp08 posted:Haven't done one of these in a while, because they haven't been terribly interesting/informative lately as combat has slowed down or press briefings occurred days after other media sources covered the same topics. This actually reminds me, somewhat, of the War of Cities phase of the Iran-Iraq War.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2022 03:04
|
|
|
Breaking my own soft-rule of “No ATACMS chat” but this is actually new reporting. https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1599786769490198529?s=46&t=63GLLKkUbAEE87xWuQ2glg
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2022 16:30
|
|
|
mlmp08 posted:Breaking my own soft-rule of “No ATACMS chat” but this is actually new reporting. it's likely reversible, if the US were ever to change their mind on it, but yeah it does prevent them from obtaining the missiles from another NATO partner under the table.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2022 16:43
|
|
|
Digital Rocket Management
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2022 16:59
|
|
|
orange juche posted:it's likely reversible, if the US were ever to change their mind on it, but yeah it does prevent them from obtaining the missiles from another NATO partner under the table. This is Eastern Europe - the Ukrainians have already reversed it using the spare parts from a 1984 Yugo.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2022 17:02
|
|
|
CCTV apparently caught an explosion at Engels air force base which is over 600km from the Ukraine border. Lots of strategic bombers there-Bears, Backfires etc. There's the usual breathless speculation about new Ukrainian long range capabilities but no confirmation of anything yet, and I suppose it might as well have been some loner that got lucky with a DIY grenade-drone combo or something similar. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMMxaqkCzi0
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2022 17:10
|
|
|
weren't the Ukrainians the ones who hacked the firmware to the Right to Repair John Deere tractors?
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2022 17:10
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1599654381145595904 https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1599705880177430529
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2022 17:18
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 5, 2024 11:35 |
|
|
Nuclear Tourist posted:I suppose it might as well have been some loner that got lucky with a DIY grenade-drone combo or something similar. Quadcopters don't make a noise like this From the sound passing overhead until the explosion is about 25 s. Explosion sound comes 19 s after the flash => about 6.3 km away from the camera. Resulting in a travel speed of about 250 m/s, or mach 0.74.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2022 17:31
|
|
