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I haven't seen this mentioned, ban on shipping insurance was implemented some time ago Russia seeks to boost acceptance of its shipping insurance to dodge oil cap quote:Poshivay suggested that China for one should recognise the certificates issued by Russian maritime insurance and reinsurance companies as guarantees of risk coverage. quote:The news agency quoted him as saying that Turkey recognised Russian insurance of maritime cargo, and that India and China recognised most Russian insurance, but not all. China refused to recognize Russian insurance of ships with oil from Russia Dwesa fucked around with this message at 12:02 on Nov 30, 2022 |
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Nov 30, 2022 11:54
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It’s exceedingly improbable that you’ll ever see counterstrikes against Russia’s strategic bomber fleet. I feel like someone's going to make a movie about 7 (maybe 12?) brave men and women of a doomed Ukrainian unit who get sent behind enemy lines with a truck full of NLAW's and a target to blow up as many bombers as they can. Probably have to burn a bridge when they cross enemy lines.
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Nov 30, 2022 12:20
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Crossposting Interview with a foreign legion volunteer (part 1) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCbD4WBqPg4 Mostly covers the initial chaos of organizing an army at the outbreak of war. He was in that base with foreign recruits that was hit early in the war. Some people died, but it would’ve been much worse if there were direct hits (from what I understood most of the missiles were intercepted, but still hit close by). Lot of indirect casualties, like a guy losing an eye to a branch when rushing to get away. He, Joe, has kind words for different nationalities, but says a lot of Americans left quickly when the reality of fighting a war without the might and organization of the US military hit them. Apparently at first there was a fair amount of people signing up to the legion just to loot.
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Nov 30, 2022 12:32
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It’s exceedingly improbable that you’ll ever see counterstrikes against Russia’s strategic bomber fleet. The only possibility for this I see is that Turkey has recently started providing Ukraine with AA missiles that can be mounted on drones. I can see Ukraine at some point trying to be sneaky and expending one drone with pre-programmed attack run against the bombers when they form up. Whether this goes anywhere depends entirely on Russian air defense. If they aren't totally out to lunch, it should be shot down well before it threatens anything.
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Nov 30, 2022 12:36
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I don't think a Mathias Rust AA drone is quite within the realm of credibility. At the end of the day, subsonic cruise missiles outrange supersonic AD missiles, and the bombers aren't in any danger and won't be in any scenario.
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Nov 30, 2022 12:41
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Tuna-Fish posted:The only possibility for this I see is that Turkey has recently started providing Ukraine with AA missiles that can be mounted on drones. I can see Ukraine at some point trying to be sneaky and expending one drone with pre-programmed attack run against the bombers when they form up. Can you draw for me on the map a drone flight path from Ukraine, Kyiv for example, to, for example, Engels (1200 kilometres east of Kyiv), where the most recently discussed strategic bomber base is located? cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 13:30 on Nov 30, 2022 |
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Nov 30, 2022 13:06
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It's going to be a mini-cooper-launched drone.
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Nov 30, 2022 13:32
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Can you draw for me on the map a drone flight path from Ukraine, Kyiv for example, to, for example, Engels (1200 kilometres east of Kyiv), where the mod recently discussed strategic bomber base is located? I would assume launch from Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. Close to target while still being far enough from the frontline that people who show up there wouldn't immediately get shelled. Cross the border flying really low somewhere in the northeastern edge of Kharkiv oblast, pick a place where there hasn't been fighting, and where there are no major settlements. Past that, climb high enough to go over power lines. (Because while the Turks have nap-of-the-earth automation, I doubt that they want that on a drone that's presumably going to be handed over to the Russians.) Then fly a zig-zag path that avoids all major settlements and gives an especially wide berth to airfields and military installations. Even with the diversions, the range to Engelsk from that airfield is ~750km, well within the fully loaded one-way (and even two-way) range of all the drones that Baykar sells. The ideal attack is right after the bombers start taking off, before they climb too high for the (presumably, I don't think we know for sure) short-ranged AA missiles that the drone carries, because the drone certainly cannot follow them up there without being shot down. Timing is a bitch because you have to launch about 6h before the bombers take off, and you cannot guarantee or expect communications when near the target, so you have to preprogram everything, but so far the Russians have been very consistent in their timing of these things. The expected outcome of this is still that the drone gets unceremoniously shot down somewhere fairly close to the border. But for that to happen, Russia needs to have at least baseline competent AA net, and I think it's absolutely worth one drone and 4 missiles to find out if they do.
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Nov 30, 2022 13:38
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It’s exceedingly improbable that you’ll ever see counterstrikes against Russia’s strategic bomber There have been a lot of improbable things to happen thus far in this war. Im sure there is someone high up chewing on this particular problem.
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Nov 30, 2022 13:43
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Burns posted:There have been a lot of improbable things to happen thus far in this war. Im sure there is someone high up chewing on this particular problem. Until they actually do something, I’ll just start probating people off the hip for sincerely posting things like Tuna-Fish posted:I would assume launch from Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. Close to target while still being far enough from the frontline that people who show up there wouldn't immediately get shelled. Cross the border flying really low somewhere in the northeastern edge of Kharkiv oblast, pick a place where there hasn't been fighting, and where there are no major settlements. Past that, climb high enough to go over power lines. (Because while the Turks have nap-of-the-earth automation, I doubt that they want that on a drone that's presumably going to be handed over to the Russians.) Then fly a zig-zag path that avoids all major settlements and gives an especially wide berth to airfields and military installations. Even with the diversions, the range to Engelsk from that airfield is ~750km, well within the fully loaded one-way (and even two-way) range of all the drones that Baykar sells. The ideal attack is right after the bombers start taking off, before they climb too high for the (presumably, I don't think we know for sure) short-ranged AA missiles that the drone carries, because the drone certainly cannot follow them up there without being shot down. Timing is a bitch because you have to launch about 6h before the bombers take off, and you cannot guarantee or expect communications when near the target, so you have to preprogram everything, but so far the Russians have been very consistent in their timing of these things.
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Nov 30, 2022 13:47
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Russian economy is hurting bad https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/26/russia-war-economy-military-supply/
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Nov 30, 2022 14:16
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Burns posted:There have been a lot of improbable things to happen thus far in this war. Im sure there is someone high up chewing on this particular problem. No doubt it's been assigned to some reasonably sharp staff officer as a problem, but that doesn't mean that there's going to be a viable solution to the the problem that's worth pursuing. AFU is pretty creative so far, though.
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Nov 30, 2022 14:21
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There's no political will to attack Engels-2. It's seen too much of an escalation.
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Nov 30, 2022 14:29
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I hate that loving word. Massive warcrimes, widespread torture: no big deal. A hypothetical attack on a military target: apparently over the line.
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Nov 30, 2022 14:32
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OddObserver posted:I hate that loving word. Massive warcrimes, widespread torture: no big deal. I’d consider dozens of nations providing financial and direct material military aid to Ukraine and major sanctions against Russia to be a latge response to a big deal.
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Nov 30, 2022 14:36
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It’s exceedingly improbable that you’ll ever see counterstrikes against Russia’s strategic bomber fleet. Sure, Engels base is much further from the border than Shaykovka, but that kind of attack already happened and they might have a long-range drone to do the same in Engels soon https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/ukraine_is_developing_a_long_range_kamikaze_drone_the_work_is_almost_complete-4564.html Dwesa fucked around with this message at 15:04 on Nov 30, 2022 |
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Nov 30, 2022 14:44
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Charlz Guybon posted:Russian economy is hurting bad I was not aware of the EU oil embargo taking effect next week. The U.S. press is not talking about it much (more focus on Iranian and Chinese protests). Is it another tightening of the screws on their economic capacity or a bigger deal than that?
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Nov 30, 2022 14:45
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Dwesa posted:Shaykovka air base was attacked by kamikaze drone, destroying two bombers. This has never been confirmed as a thing that really happened.
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Nov 30, 2022 14:47
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mlmp08 posted:This has never been confirmed as a thing that really happened. Anyway, I think more Russian bombers will probably go down due to poor maintenance than from sabotages or drone attacks.
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Nov 30, 2022 14:54
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Are there any good sources folks can recommend that get into the details of how and where Russia is evading sanctions?
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Nov 30, 2022 15:04
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Ploinking some Shahed knockoffs into the bomber stands that were occupied during the last sat flyover would be sick, but Ukraine has been dropping Shaheds left and right so surely so could the Russians.
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Nov 30, 2022 16:01
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Some more minor good News -Germany promises more Gepard tanks to help Ukraine's air defense (by apparently sourcing them from the industry directly like the last 30, or by buying them from Qatar, as the Bundeswehr has a stock of zero) -von der Leyen agrees with Zelensky that there should be war crime tribunals after the war and suggests using Russian reparations to help finance Ukrainian reconstruction after the war -from another article from the same site: there were talks between government officials and representatives of the German MIC on Monday, on how to reverse the immense amounts of neglect, grift and bureaucracy the last decades have built up To which I say, good luck. Currently the Bundeswehr can't conduct artillery exercises because we gave our entire stock of shells to the Ukrainian military. Our industry can't currently manufacture that many shells to replace ours Another fun fact: The company making the IRIS-T system can only produce two of those. Per year. The Bundeswehr doesn't even have one yet, as ours went straight to the Ukrainian military.
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Nov 30, 2022 16:18
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Dwesa posted:Shaykovka air base was attacked by kamikaze drone Almost as if distance is the entire point of this “conversation”, in the context of operating on real equipment we know or can reasonably suspect Ukraine to be in possession of.
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Nov 30, 2022 17:16
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https://rusi.org/explore-our-resear...uary-july-2022/ https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf I wonder where they are getting the numbers for this quote:Despite the importance of UAVs to remaining competitive, their attrition rates were extremely high. Of all UAVs used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the first three phases of the war covered by this study (first 90 days of the war), around 90% were destroyed. The average life expectancy of a quadcopter remained around three flights. The average life expectancy of a fixed-wing UAV was around six flights.
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Nov 30, 2022 17:22
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golden bubble posted:https://rusi.org/explore-our-resear...uary-july-2022/ The report includes a Ukrainian officer as an author, so it might be from him. Also this makes "Suicide" drones seem really economical, as it seems that every drone is basically a suicide drone.
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Nov 30, 2022 17:31
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I'm not really sure what the point of speculating on an unlikely extreme long-range attack on Russian strategic bombers is - even if Ukraine could pull it off once, it'd be trivial for Russia to implement measures to stop it happening again after the first strike making the whole thing no more than a propaganda coup with no real strategic impact. The only way bombing Russian bombers could have any real effect is if you can keep pummeling them and shooting them down on a large scale, and that doesn't seem to be remotely within Ukrainian capabilities (and to be fair, it'd be a fair bit of work for NATO as well if you gave them the task). On the subject of dramatic one-shot attacks, do we have any word on how the Kerch Bridge is doing right now or if there's any updates about how it happened to begin with? Libluini posted:To which I say, good luck. Currently the Bundeswehr can't conduct artillery exercises because we gave our entire stock of shells to the Ukrainian military. Our industry can't currently manufacture that many shells to replace ours Clearly, this was all part of Putin's 12D chess maneuvering to finally weaken Germany enough that he can successfully invade and conquer it after having used all of Ukraine as a feint! 
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Nov 30, 2022 17:32
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golden bubble posted:https://rusi.org/explore-our-resear...uary-july-2022/ It doesn't sound too far-fetched. We were getting absolutely drowned in Bayraktar videos and reports (Including a lot that looked like straight up advertising) the first month or so and then it died out.
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Nov 30, 2022 17:44
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Tuna-Fish posted:I would assume launch from Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. Close to target while still being far enough from the frontline that people who show up there wouldn't immediately get shelled. Cross the border flying really low somewhere in the northeastern edge of Kharkiv oblast, pick a place where there hasn't been fighting, and where there are no major settlements. Past that, climb high enough to go over power lines. (Because while the Turks have nap-of-the-earth automation, I doubt that they want that on a drone that's presumably going to be handed over to the Russians.) Then fly a zig-zag path that avoids all major settlements and gives an especially wide berth to airfields and military installations. Even with the diversions, the range to Engelsk from that airfield is ~750km, well within the fully loaded one-way (and even two-way) range of all the drones that Baykar sells. The ideal attack is right after the bombers start taking off, before they climb too high for the (presumably, I don't think we know for sure) short-ranged AA missiles that the drone carries, because the drone certainly cannot follow them up there without being shot down. Timing is a bitch because you have to launch about 6h before the bombers take off, and you cannot guarantee or expect communications when near the target, so you have to preprogram everything, but so far the Russians have been very consistent in their timing of these things. The communication range for a Bayraktar TB2 is 300km, they couldn't even fly a drone near the airbase if they wanted to.
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Nov 30, 2022 18:03
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Almost as if distance is the entire point of this “conversation”, in the context of operating on real equipment we know or can reasonably suspect Ukraine to be in possession of. In terms of endurance, on a one-way trip real equipment that we know that Ukraine is in possession of can reach everything west of Krasnoyarsk Krai. That is, basically all of Russia that matters. The problem is control. If they want to do such deep strikes, they can't do live control of the drone. They'd have to pre-program the mission, and hope that their guidance and intel is precise enough. Popete posted:The communication range for a Bayraktar TB2 is 300km, they couldn't even fly a drone near the airbase if they wanted to. Which is precisely why I included the sentence: self posted:and you cannot guarantee or expect communications when near the target, so you have to preprogram everything Programming drones/munitions with a pre-planned flight path is in fact something people do. It's exactly what the crappy Iranian ones are doing. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 30, 2022 18:11
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That would be nearly impossible to pre-progam firing short range AA missiles that likely need a heat signature at targets you don't know where they will be 6 hours ahead of time hoping to catch them during an extremely short time window of take off. Like the better option would be yeeting Ukraines remaining air force at Engels and that is also not going to happen for many reasons. Edit: Also A TB2 would be picked up by Russian radar probably long before it got there. They aren't mini quad copters. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Popete fucked around with this message at 18:15 on Nov 30, 2022 |
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Nov 30, 2022 18:13
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TheRat posted:It doesn't sound too far-fetched. We were getting absolutely drowned in Bayraktar videos and reports (Including a lot that looked like straight up advertising) the first month or so and then it died out. Perun's analysis agrees with the idea that drones are easy pickings for post-Warsaw Pact forces. Once the Russians wised up to the threat and stopped outrunning their anti-air coverage drone attrition skyrocketed. The quick summary of things is that cold war NATO doctrine relied on air power, so the logical counter-investment was in a crap ton of AA platforms. Even though these were designed for planes and helicopters they still work fine on UAVs, and are particularly effective against larger platforms like Bayraktar. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCEzEVwOwS4
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Nov 30, 2022 18:33
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TheRat posted:It doesn't sound too far-fetched. We were getting absolutely drowned in Bayraktar videos and reports (Including a lot that looked like straight up advertising) the first month or so and then it died out. The Bayraktars excelled during the first week or two of chaos when the Russians hadn't properly dug in their AA. Once the front lines were fixed it was pretty suicidal to fly them although they did seem to fly with corpses picked up even in Kursk and Belgorod oblast within Russia territory.' Also one of the reasons why nuthugging for transfer to Ukraine of American Predators/Grey Eagles/Reaper is pointless. Charlotte Hornets fucked around with this message at 18:56 on Nov 30, 2022 |
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Nov 30, 2022 18:53
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golden bubble posted:https://rusi.org/explore-our-resear...uary-july-2022/ Thanks for the this link, there are some tidbits that I would've imagined they got from interviews with personnel, because I haven't seen it mentioned before elsewhere. quote:Although Western training on these systems was excellent, the rapid delivery of training to new units I think its conclusions about UAS are also interesting. quote:UAS should be split into three broad categories for land forces. The first are rotary-type UAS The first category are quadcopters and the third category are the bayraktar (too expensive to lose in vast quantities). But the second category of expendable fixed wing drones that can target or mount munitions seems like a wish list item. Some sort of upgrade of an Orlan-10 or Shahed-136?
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Nov 30, 2022 19:08
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WarpedLichen posted:Thanks for the this link, there are some tidbits that I would've imagined they got from interviews with personnel, because I haven't seen it mentioned before elsewhere. Orlan-10/30 is the best example of the second category. Cheap, flies at medium altitude, can stay up in the air for long (gasoline engine) and used for surveillance and illumination for Krasnopol.
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Nov 30, 2022 19:18
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Arte has uploaded a video on Mine clearing in Ukraine, curiously the first video I've seen from them that uses English VO instead of subtitles.
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Nov 30, 2022 19:28
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Margarita Simonyan being normal again https://twitter.com/prof_preobr/status/1597581377188372481?t=7ihToeU7A_P5ydc16K_3MQ&s=19 What I find funny here is not just her considering the Hague. It's her notion that "heh, it's not just me and Solovyov, right? Right? We all equally bear the responsibility, we all wanted this awful poo poo  "
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Nov 30, 2022 22:38
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Yeah the collar tugging is amazing. No more french riviera vacations for them.
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Nov 30, 2022 22:53
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New KI reporting about just how much of a mess the international legion is https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1598051178402959360
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Nov 30, 2022 23:11
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Rinkles posted:Crossposting This is worth watching. The interviewee has a great sense of humor, and he provides a very real description of the day to day.
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Nov 30, 2022 23:47
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The "we need air support!!" part made me lol really hard.
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