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Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
If I had a posh accent instead of a Plattdüütsch tinted German one, I'd be using it everywhere as well.

However, Lindybeige is indeed a hack.

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Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

ponzicar posted:

Not even remotely true. He's an amateur that presents his opinions as facts, and real military historians hate him.

:hmmyes:

That's him for sure, a right proper gobshite.

Daduzi
Nov 22, 2005

You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun.

FishBulbia posted:

There is a huge genre of Youtube which seems to just be an appeal to authority but the authority is having a posh accent

Ah, the Hitchens zone

3D Megadoodoo
Nov 25, 2010

Antigravitas posted:

If I had a posh accent instead of a Plattdüütsch tinted German one, I'd be using it everywhere as well.

However, Lindybeige is indeed a hack.

Is he the guy who doesn't believe in normal shirt collars?

e: Actually just BISed the name and yeah he is and also yeah, he is.

Yureina
Apr 28, 2013

Yeap. I found this out recently. Really turns me off the Palestinian cause to find out they basically consist entirely of raging racists.
Apparently Putin's terms are to keep the annexed territories. He can go gently caress himself imo.

Russia will surrender all occupied territory, including Crimea. There are no other terms.

Tigey
Apr 6, 2015

3D Megadoodoo posted:

Is he the guy who doesn't believe in normal shirt collars?

e: Actually just BISed the name and yeah he is and also yeah, he is.

He's like TIK: occasionally posts something of mild interest, but has really lovely and awful personal views and can't stop bringing them up. I caught one wiff of him getting riled up about :biotruths:, then pieced together a couple of other warning signs, and blocked his vids.

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63832151

Puty-pants wants his land grabs officially recognized BEFORE talks.

Whelk's chance in a supernova of that happening.

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.

OAquinas posted:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63832151

Puty-pants wants his land grabs officially recognized BEFORE talks.

Whelk's chance in a supernova of that happening.

this poo poo should be shown to all the osint "experts" and professors on twitter who think that we have to negotiate with putin

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Tigey posted:

He's like TIK: occasionally posts something of mild interest, but has really lovely and awful personal views and can't stop bringing them up. I caught one wiff of him getting riled up about :biotruths:, then pieced together a couple of other warning signs, and blocked his vids.

TIK went on a rant against the NHS during one of his vids about not being able to get access to a NHS dentist, that put me right off the lad. :barf:

Gort
Aug 18, 2003

Good day what ho cup of tea
Not being able to get an NHS dentist is one of the poo poo things about medical care in the UK, but the issue there isn't that there's too much NHS, it's that the tories are killing it.

Who's TIK, anyway?

Saladman
Jan 12, 2010

Yureina posted:

Apparently Putin's terms are to keep the annexed territories. He can go gently caress himself imo.

Russia will surrender all occupied territory, including Crimea. There are no other terms.

Except for Crimea, the Russian government never actually defined what the borders of the four other provinces actually are, did they? I mean I don't think literally anyone would agree give them one square centimeter of Kherson province or Zaporijjia province, and doubt more than a handful of people would even remotely agree to giving them parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, so kind of a moot point.

Tomn
Aug 23, 2007

And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

OAquinas posted:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63832151

Puty-pants wants his land grabs officially recognized BEFORE talks.

Whelk's chance in a supernova of that happening.

Oh, well, in that case gently caress off then Putin.

I'm a little curious what exactly he was hoping for here. How would Western recognition of the annexation even work out when Ukraine still holds much of the territory "annexed"? Even if you buy into his view that Ukraine is a Western puppet, why exactly does he think the West/Ukraine would agree to give up what they hold without a fight? I don't know if it even plays well for international propaganda purposes given that it's such an unreasonable, unjustifiable demand.

I guess this ties back into the bigger question of "What does Putin think his end-game is here by now?" Does he actually have any idea what outcome he would like to see achieved and any reasonable idea how to accomplish it? Impossible to answer without reading his mind but it does feel in general like there isn't a central strategy now if there ever was one before, other than maybe "Wait and hopefully something will get better, somehow?"

Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo

Saladman posted:

Except for Crimea, the Russian government never actually defined what the borders of the four other provinces actually are, did they? I mean I don't think literally anyone would agree give them one square centimeter of Kherson province or Zaporijjia province, and doubt more than a handful of people would even remotely agree to giving them parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, so kind of a moot point.

Pretty sure he means the entire oblasts, yes. Remember, Kherson is the temporarily-occupied capital of a rightful russian province.

Small Strange Bird
Sep 22, 2006

Merci, chaton!

OAquinas posted:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63832151

Puty-pants wants his land grabs officially recognized BEFORE talks.

Whelk's chance in a supernova of that happening.
The moment Biden announced that he was willing to talk to Putin about Ukraine, I knew that would be one of Putin's preconditions, and whaddya know? He won't give up any of the regions he now claims are part of Russia itself, as that would make him look like a weak loser who got tens of thousands of soldiers killed or wounded for nothing at home.

So the only chances now for a quick end to the war are:
1: Ukraine gives up (nope)
2: NATO lend-leases Ukraine a shitload of Abrams, F-16s and ATACMS (nope)
3: Putin mysteriously slips and falls from through one of the Kremlin's upper-floor windows (appropriate, but probably nope)

Dammit. :smith:

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


ENFORCE THE UNITED STATES DRESS CODE AT ALL COSTS!

This message paid for by the Men's Wearhouse& Jos A Bank Lobbying Group
Has anyone considered that Macron and Biden knew that was one of Putin's preconditions and wanted to get him on the record to shut up the other waffling western countries? If you know that "peace" with Russia is continued brinksmanship and land grabs, it's going to shut you up.

Biden has carte blanche to give military aid unless and until the lend-lease is appealed. The USA doesn't give a hot drat about the war continuing. And France is one of the more steadfast pro-Ukraine states in Europe.

Charlotte Hornets
Dec 30, 2011

by Fritz the Horse

Pook Good Mook posted:

And France is one of the more steadfast pro-Ukraine states in Europe.

Ahem, no

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
France was literally selling tank parts to Russia 2014-2022 despite having supposedly sanctioned them.

Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo

OddObserver posted:

France was literally selling tank parts to Russia 2014-2022 despite having supposedly sanctioned them.

The EU sanctions only applied retroactively. No need for "despite" or "supposedly" when it's all above ground. The EU (France, Germany, Sweden, Spain) is among the world's top arms manufacturers, don't trust it anymore than you trust the US on poo poo like this.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010
https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1598682166241759233?t=hzfsvU3ayLj_NMLjT31AXg&s=19

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1598468864647614465?t=fahsDtqUo1_Mb71uicta0w&s=19

This does not have exactly the best optics :catstare:

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Honestly surprised the Russian Orthodox Church was allowed to operate in Ukraine for this long given their views on the war.

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.

whats the issue, the russian orthodox church is literally backing the invasion and killing of ukranians

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Willo567 posted:

whats the issue, the russian orthodox church is literally backing the invasion and killing of ukranians

And ran by one of the Putin's inner circle ex-KGB buddies.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Willo567 posted:

whats the issue, the russian orthodox church is literally backing the invasion and killing of ukranians

the ukrainian branch publicly broke from the russian patriarch in may, if i recall correctly

and "banning a religious branch" is always an extremely blunt instrument to use, even if it is the correct one

Saladman
Jan 12, 2010

What's the bad part of the optics? That it took them this long to severe connections with the Russian Orthodox Church after their patriarch said that Ukrainians are genocidal devils that should be put under the heel ( https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/03/21/russias-orthodox-church-paints-the-conflict-in-ukraine-as-a-holy-war )? That he said that any Russian who dies fighting against Ukraine will immediately go to heaven and get 72 virgins ( https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-patriarch-kirill-dying-ukraine-sins/32052380.html )?

Churches have had major schisms over way, way less than that.

If the Pope declares a crusade on Turkey, I'd be alright if they also banned Catholic churches in Turkey.

Saladman fucked around with this message at 17:56 on Dec 2, 2022

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.
I mean, yeah, banning a religious sect does tend to reflect poorly on the banning party but in this case "optics" take a backseat to "existential threat"

They've been fomenting pro-russian stances among people. FA, FO.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

A big flaming stink posted:

the ukrainian branch publicly broke from the russian patriarch in may, if i recall correctly

and "banning a religious branch" is always an extremely blunt instrument to use, even if it is the correct one
From those articles it seems the issue is that they maintained those ties in practice in spite of saying they were breaking away.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Saladman posted:

What's the bad part of the optics? That it took them this long to severe connections with the Russian Orthodox Church after their patriarch said that Ukrainians are genocidal devils that should be put under the heel ( https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/03/21/russias-orthodox-church-paints-the-conflict-in-ukraine-as-a-holy-war )? That he said that any Russian who dies fighting against Ukraine will immediately go to heaven and get 72 virgins ( https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-patriarch-kirill-dying-ukraine-sins/32052380.html )?

Churches have had major schisms over way, way less than that.

from reuters:

quote:

The Ukrainian government will draw up a law banning churches affiliated with Russia under moves described by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as necessary to prevent Moscow being able to "weaken Ukraine from within."

The National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, which groups top security, military and political figures, told the government to draft the law following a series of raids on parishes that Kyiv says could be taking orders from Moscow.

The security council also ordered investigations into suspected "subversive activities of Russian special services in the religious environment of Ukraine" and called for sanctions against unspecified individuals.

quote:

Further searches of church premises were taking place on Friday. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) it said was searching at least five parishes belonging to a branch of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church which until May was subordinated to the Russian Orthodox Church.
The agency also announced on Friday that it had served a notice of suspicion to a former diocese head in central Ukraine for allegedly coordinating a pro-Moscow information campaign with the head of the Russian Orthodox Church.

quote:

The branch has condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine but many Ukrainians fear it could be a source of Russian influence in the country.

"We have to create conditions where no actors dependent on the aggressor state (Russia) will have an opportunity to manipulate Ukrainians and weaken Ukraine from within," Zelenskiy said in his nightly address to the nation on Thursday.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-orders-probe-into-russian-linked-church-says-zelenskiy-2022-12-01/

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Fire Storm
Aug 8, 2004

what's the point of life
if there are no sexborgs?
I do hate click-bait, but when I saw Putin fell down stairs I DID get a little smile on my face. Unfortunately, he survived.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

Fire Storm posted:

I do hate click-bait, but when I saw Putin fell down stairs I DID get a little smile on my face. Unfortunately, he survived.

Maybe it was a rehearsal.

Tomn
Aug 23, 2007

And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands
To be honest this being the Orthodox Church gets a bit weird - Orthodox Christianity has a whole thing where the various different branches are pretty similar in doctrine and ministration and their differences mostly center around politics, to wit, "Who runs which part of the church where and who gets to appoint which bishops and ministers where (and who recognizes whose right to do what)." Unsurprisingly churches have a tendency to declare themselves autocephalous when the nation that the church has jurisdiction over becomes independent and self-governing as well, and Orthodox churches tend to be closely linked with the politics of their host nation - notably the Byzantine Emperors and Moscow Tsars were frequently able to exercise direct political control over the churches in their territories and order them to issue rulings in their favor, in a way that for instance the Western European nations couldn't easily do with the Pope.

Since the difference between the Russian Church and the Ukrainian Church is primarily political, not religious, I doubt there's very many Ukrainians genuinely concerned for the state of their soul if they can't worship at a Russian Church - and if they really are that concerned, it does kinda raise questions on why they can't just worship at the identical-in-almost-every-way-for-religious-purposes Ukrainian Church instead. There might be a very few theological rules lawyers who genuinely believe in the unassailable theological primacy of the Russian Church but I can't imagine that's a huge number.

It also looks like, judging from the Wall Street article, another political dimension to this as well - the Russian branch in Ukraine has apparently lost a huge amount of followers and influence to the Ukrainian branch, but still legally owns the biggest and most important religious sites in Ukraine proper. Zelensky might be trying for a relatively easy domestic political win by transferring control of such sites to the much more popular Ukrainian branch.

Strictly speaking from pure freedom of religion perspectives I could see banning the Russian branch being problematic, but given that adherents to the Russian branch apparently now comprises 4% of the Ukrainian population (according to the WSJ article which I foolishly closed and now can't get past the paywall for), the situation regarding Ukrainian religious sites mentioned above, Russia's traditional control over the Russian Orthodox church and its subordinates, the clear direction of the Russian influence on its church preaching and the ongoing war...well, there's a giant pile of reasons to do something about the Russian Church and not many reasons at all to let it go on quietly.

Libluini
May 18, 2012

I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...
Grimey Drawer

Willo567 posted:

whats the issue, the russian orthodox church is literally backing the invasion and killing of ukranians

The issue is that they waited this Long to finally step in

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Libluini posted:

The issue is that they waited this Long to finally step in

Probably has to do with some investigations into it finally wrapping up recently.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Russia and Ukraine are fighting the first full-scale drone war

The article itself has some good visuals but I'll post it here in its entirety because it's fascinating.

quote:

KHARKIV, Ukraine — A war that began with Russian tanks rolling across Ukraine’s borders, World War I-style trenches carved into the earth and Soviet-made artillery pounding the landscape now has a more modern dimension: soldiers observing the battlefield on a small satellite-linked monitor while their palm-size drone hovers out of sight.

With hundreds of reconnaissance and attack drones flying over Ukraine each day, the fight set off by a land grab befitting an 18th-century emperor has transformed into a digital-age competition for technological superiority in the skies — one military annals will mark as a turning point.

In past conflicts, drones were typically used by one side over largely uncontested airspace to locate and hit targets — for example, in U.S. operations in Afghanistan and the Middle East.

In the battle between Russia and Ukraine, drones are integrated into every phase of fighting, with extensive fleets, air defenses and jamming systems on each side. It is a war fought at a distance — the enemy is often miles away — and nothing bridges the gap more than drones, giving Russia and Ukraine the ability to see, and attack, each other without ever getting close.

Ukrainian forces have also used drones to strike targets far from the fighting — in Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014, and in Russia’s Belgorod border region, according to multiple Ukrainian officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters but declined to say what type of drones were used. Russia has repeatedly struck Ukraine’s critical civilian infrastructure with self-detonating drones — a cheap substitute for high-precision missiles.

Drones have become so critical to battlefield success that at times they are used to take out other drones.

In early September, just days before Ukraine launched an offensive to expel Russian forces from its northeastern Kharkiv region, a Ukrainian reconnaissance drone flew through a gap between two jamming systems near the Russian border. It crossed into Russia and turned north across the Belgorod region, where Russia bases equipment to support its war in eastern Ukraine.

The drone spotted a base for Moscow’s own unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), according to overhead images captured by the Ukrainians that were later reviewed by The Washington Post.

In one frame, a Russian Orlan-10, with a trademark propeller on its nose, could be seen sitting in the field beside a house. Then in an “after” photo, the house had a hole in its roof, and an ambulance could be seen driving up. A Ukrainian attack drone had followed the same route as the reconnaissance drone — and delivered a strike on the fleet of enemy “eyes.”

The attack, which has not been previously reported, dealt a blow to the Russian forces’ ability to see the Ukrainian offensive coming and to counterattack.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainians deployed reconnaissance UAVs to mark the coordinates of Russian command posts, artillery batteries, electronic warfare systems and ammunition depots. Then, as Western-provided multiple-launch rocket systems fired on those targets, drones were flying again, redirecting the rocket fire in real time or confirming that it hit the mark. At times, combat drones delivered the blow themselves.

The Ukrainian strikes weakened the Russians and set the stage for Ukrainian soldiers to advance. When they did, drones were again hovering, allowing the operation’s commander to monitor the troops’ progress on a live stream. “We had the full picture of the fight,” said Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, commander of the Ukrainian ground forces.

The result was a stunning Russian retreat.

“Two main developments are going to impact future war,” said Samuel Bendett, a military analyst at the Virginia-based research group CNA. “The proliferation and availability of combat drones for longer-ranged, more-sophisticated operations, and the absolute necessity to have cheap tactical drones for close-support operations.”

In Ukraine, that future is now.

‘Army of Drones’

More than anything, drones put eyes on the battlefield. And to see the enemy’s moves, the Ukrainian military last spring created a unit of reconnaissance drone teams called “Ochi” — Ukrainian for “eyes.” Four-person teams are now spread across the eastern front, flying UAVs every day except when it rains.

In September, members of one such team squinted at their small handheld monitor and snickered. On the screen, they could make out several people in military uniform and a cart, in a cornfield across the Oskil River in a part of the Kharkiv region then occupied by Russians.

“They’re stealing the locals’ corn,” said one of the Ukrainian drone operators, who for security reasons spoke on the condition that he be identified by his call sign, “Bars.” A few Russian troops weren’t worth an artillery strike, but the drone would keep watching in case they returned to a base.

Driving an unarmored car, an Ochi team picks a spot near the front line, plugs in backup drone batteries to a generator and fires up a Starlink internet connection, so everything they see can be streamed to nearby brigades.

Their drone, a Matrice 300 quadcopter weighing about eight pounds, and its accompanying parts, including monitors, costs about $40,000 — making it one of the cheapest tools of war.

It is these commercial drones — often small, relatively inexpensive and now ubiquitous — that make the war in Ukraine unique, providing unprecedented visibility and sharpening the accuracy of normally inexact artillery fire.

Military-grade combat drones such as the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 used by Ukraine, or the Iranian-made Shahed-136 deployed by Russia, are playing an expanded if more traditional role. But the most popular drone used by each side can fit in your hand — more a bug than a bird.

The small Mavic quadcopter, which like the Matrice 300 is produced by Chinese manufacturer DJI, costs less than $4,000 online. Yuri Baluyevsky, a retired general who served as chief of Russia’s armed forces, called it “a true symbol of modern warfare,” in a book on advanced military strategies published this year.

The use of Mavics is so widespread by each army that Ukrainian soldiers said they often don’t know if the drone they spot is friend or foe. If one hovers for too long rather than just passing by, that’s suspicious enough to warrant shooting it down.

DJI, the largest commercial drone producer in the world, doesn’t formally supply either Ukraine or Russia with Mavics or other UAVs. To distance itself from the war, DJI has suspended sales in Ukraine and Russia. But that doesn’t stop volunteers and charity funds from purchasing in bulk from retailers. The Ukrainians use the drones for reconnaissance but have also rigged them to drop small munitions.

As Ukrainian forces advanced in the southern Kherson region last month, a special forces unit recycled Coke cans into explosives to be dropped from Mavics onto mined fields — a low-cost way of clearing a path for their troops.

A more common use of Mavics, however, is a sort of psychological warfare. In Kharkiv, the volunteer Khartia Battalion uses them to unleash small, cylindrical munitions on Russian bases. The explosives can’t seriously damage a tank but can make the enemy paranoid, fearing a larger attack at any moment.

“We can make their lives a nightmare all of the time,” said Oleksandr Dubinskyi, a Khartia drone pilot.

The Mavic is just one drone in a vast swarm.

There are also EVO II drones, made by Autel Robotics, which like DJI is based in Shenzhen, China. A charity run by Serhiy Prytula, a Ukrainian TV star, has been buying up drones from all over the world — such as the German Vector UAV or the Cypriot Poseidon drone — so that the Ukrainian military can try them.

Senior Ukrainian and Russian commanders, many of whom trained together in Soviet times, used to be skeptical of drones. Now, they are rushing to train thousands of pilots.

Ukraine’s state crowdfunder, United24, has an “Army of Drones” initiative with contracts to buy nearly 1,000 UAVs, said Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s digital transformation minister. But that’s still not enough.

The goal, Fedorov said, is 10,000 drones flying along the vast front line, to broadcast the fighting without interruption.

In late August, Bars’s Ochi team was transferred to the Kharkiv area, assigned to observe the Russians and identify targets.

Typically, Ochi teams are in constant contact with an artillery unit — providing coordinates of Russian equipment or bases, and monitoring strikes in real time as colleagues carry them out. Ahead of the Kharkiv counteroffensive, the order was to watch and save up targets. Soldiers involved in the lightning push in the northeast said they had never seen so much aerial reconnaissance with such detail.

“The Russians were acting as if this was their home,” said another Ochi operator, who The Post agreed to identify by his call sign, “Felix.” “They were way too comfortable. And they had no idea what was coming.”

On Sept. 6, Ukraine’s Kharkiv counteroffensive kicked off — as did the strikes on targets Ochi had identified, such as ammunition depots and bases. “We were giving them a support picture — where to go or how to get around,” Felix said. “Wherever our guys went, we stayed with them.”

Production predicament

Every Ukrainian soldier has had a scary encounter with a Russian Orlan-10 — Russia’s premier reconnaissance drone, which also has electronic-warfare capabilities.

For Lt. Oleksandr Sosovskyy, a deputy battalion commander in Ukraine’s 93rd Mechanized Brigade, his occurred in late April, while traveling with four soldiers to a village near the front line in the Kharkiv region. After parking their car between two houses, he heard an eerie buzzing overhead. They couldn’t see their enemy, but the enemy could see them.

For the next several hours, shelling followed wherever they went. The soldiers tried to split up, moving around the village and ducking for cover. But the Orlan helped the Russians correct their fire. It was relentless and accurate. “They were trying to destroy the car and obviously destroy us,” Sosovskyy said.

In recent months, however, Sosovskyy has noticed there are fewer Orlans to fear. Before, the Russians would often have two flying at once — one for reconnaissance and one to correct artillery strikes. By summertime, hearing or seeing one, much less two, became rarer.

With the use of unmanned aircraft expanding, Ukraine and Russia are trying to ramp up domestic manufacturing of all types of drones. But a noticeable decline in Orlans has highlighted the challenges for Moscow on the production front.

The Orlan-10 is the Russian military’s workhorse in the sky, but it’s unclear how many are left. Many have been shot down, and there is little available data on production rates.

In September, after Russia’s forces were ousted from Kharkiv, Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of Russia’s Vostok Battalion, lamented Moscow’s drone shortage.

“I have fewer people than I would like — but this is not the main difficulty. It’s the fact that for hours I cannot find the positions of the enemy from which they are hitting us,” Khodakovsky wrote on Telegram. “I can’t because there are no means of artillery reconnaissance.”

Col. Yurii Solovey, who heads air defense for Ukraine’s ground forces, said his unit has destroyed more than 580 Orlan-10s since Russia’s invasion began. “They’re starting to use some new drones instead, so that’s a sign to us that they’ve basically run out of the Orlans,” Solovey said. “But they still have to do reconnaissance.”

Alternatives are hard to come by. Russian military systems — especially drones — depend on microelectronic components produced in the United States, Europe and Asia, which Moscow now has difficulty procuring because of sanctions.

Russia’s Defense Ministry has acknowledged the shortfall.

“The Defense Ministry has developed appropriate tactical and technical requirements for unmanned aerial vehicles,” Col. Igor Ischuk told a government panel in September. “Most manufacturers, unfortunately, are not able to fulfill them.”

That gives Ukraine an edge, ramping up production in factories that tend to look like hip offices. Their locations have been wiped from Google Maps — for fear of airstrikes.

Homegrown drones range from miniature planes that can fly nearly 30 miles and drop a five-pound missile — such as the Punisher drone preferred by Ukraine’s special forces — to reconnaissance gliders. The goal is to produce 2,000 small combat drones in Ukraine per month by year’s end, said Fedorov, the digital minister.

Russia’s failures, however, are not just due to lack of hardware. Its experience highlights how drone warfare requires not just advanced equipment but a modern mind-set for decision-making.

Russia’s rigid chain of command requires soldiers on the ground to seek senior approval for strikes, said Pavel Aksenov, a military expert and reporter with the BBC’s Russian service. So even when a Russian reconnaissance drone spots a target, by the time the go-ahead comes through, the target often has moved.

Imported solutions

They heard the threat before they saw it.

As the rumbling drew closer, Ukrainian law enforcement officers in downtown Kyiv steeled themselves and raised their guns skyward, looking for the noise. When they spotted the white triangle through the clouds, they opened fire.

The Iranian-made Shahed drone, with an explosive warhead at its nose, “is a moped in the sky,” moving slowly and loudly before diving into its target, said Solovey, the head of air defense for Ukrainian ground forces.

The Shahed is Russia’s solution to its domestic production woes — a powerful drone bought from another country ostracized by the West. Ukrainian officials said Moscow has recently ordered more from Tehran.

Kyiv and its Western allies say that Russia has bought hundreds of the Shahed-136 drones and that Iranian trainers have traveled to Ukraine to help operate them. The Shaheds debuted in Ukraine on Sept. 20 and initially were used to terrorize southern Ukraine.

The drones have since wreaked havoc all over the country.

When the Kyiv police officers fired their guns into the sky on Oct. 17, one drone was shot down, but four others struck near a power station. One hit a residential building, which split in half and collapsed. Five people were killed.

The Shahed has few metallic parts and flies low, making it difficult to detect. Expensive surface-to-air missile systems, such as an S-300 or Buk, can take them out, but doing so wastes resources that Kyiv would rather use against Moscow’s high-precision missiles. Lately, Ukraine has scrambled fighter jets to shoot down Shaheds.

This frustrating choice is partly the point, said Aksenov, the Russian military expert — to exhaust Kyiv’s resources while conserving Russia’s own arsenal.

Ukraine was the first of the two sides to put foreign drones to use. And one — the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 — had a key role in provoking Russian President Vladimir Putin before the invasion.

Kyiv bought its first TB2s in 2019 and used the drones mainly for reconnaissance in its conflict with Russian-led separatist forces in eastern Ukraine. But on Oct. 26, 2021, with the front-line village of Hranitne under heavy shelling, a TB2 carried out its first strike, obliterating an enemy howitzer.

Putin later raised the incident in a phone conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, calling Ukraine’s drone use “destructive” behavior and “provocative activity,” according to the Kremlin. In Moscow, the TB2s were used in propaganda about NATO arming Ukraine for attacks on Russia — part of the narrative to justify Putin’s invasion.

The TB2s, which cost about $5 million each, are the most powerful drones in Ukraine’s fleet and offered the first evidence of how UAVs could help Kyiv compete against Russia’s far larger, better-equipped military. The TB2 carries four laser-guided missiles and can fly for more than 24 hours at an altitude of up to 25,000 feet.

Before being used in Ukraine, TB2s featured prominently in conflicts in Libya and Syria, and played a decisive role in Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia in the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The Ukrainian military said in May that it was using TB2s to attack Russian bases and ships on Snake Island in the Black Sea, from which Moscow’s forces retreated in July.

Ukraine now has several foreign-made combat drones in its fleet, including U.S.-provided Switchblade self-destructing drones. But Bayraktars remain an icon, helping to spur a sort of drone fever in Ukraine.

Recently, volunteers organized a rave in a Kyiv subway station to raise funds to buy a drone. Drone schools have sprouted up across the country, including some specifically for women.

One trainer, Serhii Ristenko, is a photographer who used drone technology to shoot scenes for the hit HBO miniseries “Chernobyl.” When he and his family spent more than a month under Russian occupation in northern Ukraine at the start of the war, he buried his drone in the backyard.

Now Ristenko trains soldiers to fly the R-18 octocopter, made by Ukraine’s Aerorozvidka organization. The drone, equipped with a thermal imager, can fly about six miles when loaded with explosives.

“One of my students was a captain that was more than 50 years old and really wanted to learn to fly,” Restenko said. “I had a feeling he only got a smartphone for the first time in his life the week before we met. He’d call me 50 times a day with questions. But he really wanted to learn, and he actually did it.”

Shortly after the start of the invasion, Syrsky, the colonel general then leading the defense of Kyiv, turned to one of his deputies and suggested making something “artistic” about the Bayraktar to lift public morale. It was inspiring, he said, to watch new technology take out traditional military hardware such as tanks.

The task eventually filtered down to a soldier, Taras Borovok, who quickly wrote the catchy “Bayraktar” tune that became a hit on Ukrainian radio. Among the lyrics: “The Kremlin freak is conducting propaganda; the people swallow the words. Now their czar knows a new word: Bayraktar.”

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
Correct insofar as scale is unprecedented on both sides. Unfortunately I don't think this even vaguely scratches the surface of what full scale drone war will look like in even the semi-near future.

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Payndz posted:

So the only chances now for a quick end to the war are:
1: Ukraine gives up (nope)
2: NATO lend-leases Ukraine a shitload of Abrams, F-16s and ATACMS (nope)
3: Putin mysteriously slips and falls from through one of the Kremlin's upper-floor windows (appropriate, but probably nope)

The idea that #2 results in a quick end to the war is an absolute fantasy.

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.
If Ukraine wanted to retake Crimea, would ATACMS be necessary?

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Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Willo567 posted:

If Ukraine wanted to retake Crimea, would ATACMS be necessary?

Very likely. Getting to Crimea would mean getting past two checkpoints on the peninsula, and you need some long-range firepower breaking those chokepoints by targeting command posts, ammo dumps, convoys, etc., and covering the UkAF's advance afterwards all the while keeping Sevastopol at bay.

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Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Willo567 posted:

If Ukraine wanted to retake Crimea, would ATACMS be necessary?

They'd help but they're not 100% necessary to take the Kerch out fully. Ukraine's naval drone bombs are causing massive problems for Russia's Black Sea fleet, I imagine another swarm of those will be employed to fully take out the Kerch bridge when the time is right.

Though it's also possible the bridge's reduced capacity is already reducing supplies enough for Ukraine to advance. There's been reports of Russia pulling back from villages south of Zaporizhzhia already.

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Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Willo567 posted:

If Ukraine wanted to retake Crimea, would ATACMS be necessary?

Not necessary. Certainly helpful, but there are always multiple ways to accomplish a task. Some are more efficient than others, but all can be made to work.

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Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

There's also this, but I think it may just be an ARG for an as-yet unannounced sequel to Event Horizon.

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