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Plorkyeran
Mar 22, 2007

To Escape The Shackles Of The Old Forums, We Must Reject The Tribal Negativity He Endorsed
It actually now appears that they didn’t get hacked (or “hacked”) at all. The thing that was reported as a hack was the Bahamas authorities seizing money.

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oliveoil
Apr 22, 2016

Plorkyeran posted:

The thing that was reported as a hack was the Bahamas authorities seizing money.

Huh. Are the Bahamas known for clean politics or are they basically corrupt?

Wanna know if I can still call this a hack, just a legal one instead of a technical one

Also given chatgpt can find security bugs (difficult without both expertise and a careful focus) in smart contracts code (new field, relatively few examples of these kinds of vulnerabilities), I am once again concerned about AI destroying tech jobs.

Given we now have proof of concepts for automating small but expert level tasks, I am not sure we'll need more than a couple years before we see stuff that can automate task aggregation and prioritization, sending 90% of developers into perma unemployment.

Automation is great for decreasing the price of goods and making the pie bigger but our share of the pie depends also on how much we can successfully demand relative to what we put on the table. If 90% of us can't put anything on the table anymore then we ain't getting any part of the pie no matter how big that pie grows. We've seen this for decades as the pie grows but workers get less of it, as corporate profits outpace employee compensation.

Even if you think it's extremely unlikely, how might one hedge against the remote possibility that knowledge workers aren't really needed within 2-10 years?

Only way I can think of continuing to get a piece of the growing pie is to try to own the table. I.e., own assets. That kind of blows for people who can't get good jobs and people who gambled away their entire retirement right before the good jobs disappear. :sweatdrop:

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

oliveoil posted:

Huh. Are the Bahamas known for clean politics or are they basically corrupt?

I can't answer this definitively but they are a small island government so probably were happy to cooperate with the guy to get him out of there and get their banking industry out of the news and not attached to his name. 1/3rd of bahamas GDP is financial services (tourism is bigger, obviously) and they have a huge offshore banking industry. When switzerland stopped offering anonymous bank accounts bahamas and panama stepped up to fill that role. Having a giant crypto collapse happen on their soil was a huge black eye to their already sketchy offshore Caribbean banking system. Dr. Nick from the simpsons famously got his medical degree from a school in the Caribbean. The bahamas is one of those places you go where you need an official sign off, but it doesn't matter where the sign-off came from (like registering 1,000 ft long, 20,000hp ocean-going container ships)

Hadlock fucked around with this message at 20:36 on Dec 2, 2022

borkencode
Nov 10, 2004
The fact that I remember that Dr. Nick went to “Hollywood Upstairs Medical College” instead of remembering Dijkstra’s algorithm is probably why I’ll never make it to figgyland.

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
figgieland is not a state of mind its a place you can buy plane tickets to. less than 250 bux if youre in the continental us

or have them bought for you realistically if you touch puter

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

bob dobbs is dead posted:

figgieland is not a state of mind its a place you can buy plane tickets to. less than 250 bux if youre in the continental us

If I'd understood this fact when I was 20 I would have gone in to debt to do so; if I could redo my 20s this would be step 1

There was a cashier at a sf safeway I was convinced I could get him into a front end design or programming job if only he'd sign up for the boot camp

downout
Jul 6, 2009

oliveoil posted:

Huh. Are the Bahamas known for clean politics or are they basically corrupt?

Wanna know if I can still call this a hack, just a legal one instead of a technical one

Also given chatgpt can find security bugs (difficult without both expertise and a careful focus) in smart contracts code (new field, relatively few examples of these kinds of vulnerabilities), I am once again concerned about AI destroying tech jobs.

Given we now have proof of concepts for automating small but expert level tasks, I am not sure we'll need more than a couple years before we see stuff that can automate task aggregation and prioritization, sending 90% of developers into perma unemployment.

Automation is great for decreasing the price of goods and making the pie bigger but our share of the pie depends also on how much we can successfully demand relative to what we put on the table. If 90% of us can't put anything on the table anymore then we ain't getting any part of the pie no matter how big that pie grows. We've seen this for decades as the pie grows but workers get less of it, as corporate profits outpace employee compensation.

Even if you think it's extremely unlikely, how might one hedge against the remote possibility that knowledge workers aren't really needed within 2-10 years?

Only way I can think of continuing to get a piece of the growing pie is to try to own the table. I.e., own assets. That kind of blows for people who can't get good jobs and people who gambled away their entire retirement right before the good jobs disappear. :sweatdrop:

Where are these proofs of concepts?

oliveoil
Apr 22, 2016

downout posted:

Where are these proofs of concepts?

Not sure if I'm attaching this file correctly

Only registered members can see post attachments!

oliveoil
Apr 22, 2016

oliveoil posted:

Not sure if I'm attaching this file correctly



See also https://imgur.com/a/5ccpSND

Mega Comrade
Apr 22, 2004

Listen buddy, we all got problems!
I normally have a rule not to respond to oliveoil but the whole ChatGPT discourse thing has been winding me up all day on twitter.
It looks like a cool tool I can maybe use instead of going to StackOverflow. But if you scratch the surface even slightly, its returning lots of completely incorrect code, I suppose just like stackoverflow does. Probably because its compiling answers from sources like stack overflow.....

Seriously, a LOT of these twitter threads hyping these answers aren't actually properly inspecting the answers, they seem amazed it can answer a leetcode question not thinking that those answers are able to be looked up easily. Then ask it some basic stuff about a slightly less popular language and it starts just making up properties that don't exist. Its completely unreliable. It even fucks up basic maths questions.

https://twitter.com/Banjoe__/status/1598890398369599488
https://twitter.com/vogon/status/1598334517647134720
https://twitter.com/vogon/status/1598351142450520064
https://twitter.com/SergeyI49013776/status/1598430519619887117
https://twitter.com/UbiUbiquitous/status/1598968584818298882

oliveoil
Apr 22, 2016
Even if it's 99% poo poo, it's been proven possible now and the rest of the way is just iteration.

Compare the lovely AI image generators DALL-E to the new ones.

It proves the technology is possible but it looks useless so people think they have a good ten years till AI replaces them... and then DALL-E 2 comes along the following year.

So fine. Chatgpt is useless for now. But next year? The year after that?

oliveoil fucked around with this message at 16:17 on Dec 3, 2022

ultrafilter
Aug 23, 2007

It's okay if you have any questions.


oliveoil posted:

Even if it's 99% poo poo, it's been proven possible now and the rest of the way is just iteration.

That's not how this works at all. Please learn something about AI and don't just absorb breathless hype.

oliveoil
Apr 22, 2016

ultrafilter posted:

That's not how this works at all. Please learn something about AI and don't just absorb breathless hype.

Compare DALLE to DALLE 2.

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost

ultrafilter posted:

That's not how this works at all. Please learn something about AI and don't just absorb breathless hype.

this is an actual teachable lesson for people who actually learn things (eg: not oliveoil): like 40% of learning to AI research is dealing with idiot's bullshit and seeing through demo bullshit. it comes from the most famous peeps, remember capsule nets?

CPColin
Sep 9, 2003

Big ol' smile.

oliveoil posted:

Compare DALLE to DALLE 2.

When can we compare you to oliveoil 2?

John DiFool
Aug 28, 2013

AI is just around the corner boys! Doesn’t matter that we have no functional model or theory of human consciousness. I’m sure if we just blindly throw more compute, linear algebra and grit at it we’ll get there. Just give it another, uh, ten years or so.

Mega Comrade
Apr 22, 2004

Listen buddy, we all got problems!

oliveoil posted:

Even if it's 99% poo poo, it's been proven possible now and the rest of the way is just iteration.

Compare the lovely AI image generators DALL-E to the new ones.

It proves the technology is possible but it looks useless so people think they have a good ten years till AI replaces them... and then DALL-E 2 comes along the following year.

So fine. Chatgpt is useless for now. But next year? The year after that?



Elon Musk in 2016 posted:

I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem ... I think we are probably less than two years away.

Sivart13
May 18, 2003
I have neglected to come up with a clever title

Mega Comrade posted:

I normally have a rule not to respond to oliveoil but the whole ChatGPT discourse thing has been winding me up all day on twitter.
a chatbot that can confidently assert lengthy statements that don't pass a surface-level examination? The computers are gunning for oliveoil's job

wilderthanmild
Jun 21, 2010

Posting shit




Grimey Drawer
Have we considered that oliveoil might be Chatgpt2?

StumblyWumbly
Sep 12, 2007

Batmanticore!
I have developed a system that will predict the outcome of a coin toss. It is 50% accurate, but I believe 100% accuracy is around the corner.

People ask me how I achieve such speed and ingenuity, and the answer is that I have an unrelenting focus on results, while the competition gets tied up in some sort of "fundamental understanding" which I suspect does not actually exist because nobody can explain it to me. Instead I've abstracted AI to a "black box" model of "stuff goes in" and "stuff comes out". When understood at this level, my enlightened mind can see that any stuff can come out of an artificial intelligence. Within two years, I believe we will have reached the point where an understanding of "principals" or "correct application of tools" will be shows as an academic scam, and true creativity comes from AI copying existing results.

Thank you for listening to my TED talk.

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost

StumblyWumbly posted:

I have developed a system that will predict the outcome of a coin toss. It is 50% accurate, but I believe 100% accuracy is around the corner.

People ask me how I achieve such speed and ingenuity, and the answer is that I have an unrelenting focus on results, while the competition gets tied up in some sort of "fundamental understanding" which I suspect does not actually exist because nobody can explain it to me. Instead I've abstracted AI to a "black box" model of "stuff goes in" and "stuff comes out". When understood at this level, my enlightened mind can see that any stuff can come out of an artificial intelligence. Within two years, I believe we will have reached the point where an understanding of "principals" or "correct application of tools" will be shows as an academic scam, and true creativity comes from AI copying existing results.

Thank you for listening to my TED talk.

diaconis has unfortunately beaten the living poo poo out of you

51% bro

https://statweb.stanford.edu/~cgates/PERSI/papers/dyn_coin_07.pdf

StumblyWumbly
Sep 12, 2007

Batmanticore!

bob dobbs is dead posted:

diaconis has unfortunately beaten the living poo poo out of you

51% bro

https://statweb.stanford.edu/~cgates/PERSI/papers/dyn_coin_07.pdf

TLDR:

That paper's Conclusion posted:

If we have this much trouble analyzing a common coin toss, the reader can imagine the difficulty we have with interpreting typical stochastic assumptions in an econometric analysis.
...
The classical assumptions of independence with probability 1/2 are pretty solid.
Solid paper, will never read the middle 20 pages

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
diaconis is also a world-class magician who paid for undergrad after dropping out of middle school by cardsharping and hustling riverboat gamblers and can and did practice every day for 30 minutes for 15 years to get that 50% to a 90% heads so the real lesson here is don't gamble with that guy or he'll hustle you

Vulture Culture
Jul 14, 2003

I was never enjoying it. I only eat it for the nutrients.
Call me a cynic, but the thing about AI-generated content is that in order to put people out of jobs, the results don't have to be right, they just have to look right.

lifg
Dec 4, 2000
<this tag left blank>
Muldoon
I’m going to give a standard answer: It’s not going to put programmers out of jobs, but it may change the types of jobs we do.

And honestly, good.

Xarn
Jun 26, 2015
I am gonna use it to write PR comment replies, so I don't have to fix poo poo :v:

taqueso
Mar 8, 2004


:911:
:wookie: :thermidor: :wookie:
:dehumanize:

:pirate::hf::tinfoil:

I've been messing with the chat thing and asking it to make me embedded c modules that I've worked on recently professionally, and if I guide it towards adding the features I want it does surprisingly well. I'm honestly shocked, I didn't think it would be anywhere near this good. It isn't perfect by any means and it is poo poo at devising an implementation strategy on its own but if it could work with an ide it's probably saleable.

It knew some protocol details of canbus isotp, but also made subtle errors with constants. It felt a little like reviewing a student's code. I could ask it to refactor or tell it mistakes and it would fix them. Overall very impressive, especially for something chat tuned.

pokeyman
Nov 26, 2006

That elephant ate my entire platoon.

taqueso posted:

It felt a little like reviewing a student's code. I could ask it to refactor or tell it mistakes and it would fix them.

Back to the drawing board, CS undergrad course instructors!

Mega Comrade
Apr 22, 2004

Listen buddy, we all got problems!

taqueso posted:

if it could work with an ide it's probably saleable.

This is where I think this technology is headed. We've already seen it starting with Microsoft's intellicode. Anything that allows me to write less boilerplate is welcome.

Vulture Culture posted:

Call me a cynic, but the thing about AI-generated content is that in order to put people out of jobs, the results don't have to be right, they just have to look right.

If it takes our jobs then for certain it's taken most other peoples jobs too by that point. And by then society out of necessity will be doing some kind of universal basic income. So I finally get to enjoy my hobbies.

Mega Comrade fucked around with this message at 10:54 on Dec 4, 2022

leper khan
Dec 28, 2010
Honest to god thinks Half Life 2 is a bad game. But at least he likes Monster Hunter.

Mega Comrade posted:

This is where I think this technology is headed. We've already seen it starting with Microsoft's intellicode. Anything that allows me to write less boilerplate is welcome.

If it takes our jobs then for certain it's taken most other peoples jobs too by that point. And by then society out of necessity will be doing some kind of universal basic income. So I finally get to enjoy my hobbies.

You'd like that to be true, but instead I present shantytowns and widespread homelessness.

Mega Comrade
Apr 22, 2004

Listen buddy, we all got problems!
:shrug: A lot of European countries including my own are already running trials at the moment.

awesomeolion
Nov 5, 2007

"Hi, I'm awesomeolion."

All the programmers at the Two Sum factory are in shambles.

I want to play a horrible game with stable diffusion art and chat bot programming and voice lines.

Vulture Culture
Jul 14, 2003

I was never enjoying it. I only eat it for the nutrients.

Mega Comrade posted:

This is where I think this technology is headed. We've already seen it starting with Microsoft's intellicode. Anything that allows me to write less boilerplate is welcome.

If it takes our jobs then for certain it's taken most other peoples jobs too by that point. And by then society out of necessity will be doing some kind of universal basic income. So I finally get to enjoy my hobbies.
Imagine a society where everything is done catastrophically wrong, but nobody even knows who to talk to to fix something. Like the paver robot paves your street with raisins instead of asphalt, and your town highway department's phone number just rings through to a phone tree with an AI voice assistant

spiritual bypass
Feb 19, 2008

Grimey Drawer

Vulture Culture posted:

Imagine a society where everything is done catastrophically wrong, but nobody even knows who to talk to to fix something

Seems my employer's been on the AI bandwagon for a long time!

Vulture Culture
Jul 14, 2003

I was never enjoying it. I only eat it for the nutrients.

cum jabbar posted:

Seems my employer's been on the AI bandwagon for a long time!
do we have the same employer

Rocko Bonaparte
Mar 12, 2002

Every day is Friday!

leper khan posted:

You'd like that to be true, but instead I present shantytowns and widespread homelessness.

Yeah I expect a bunch of this first, although I come at it with a very naive "Communism 101" level of comprehension. I kind of thought the destabilization that industrialization caused would pale in comparison to post-scarcity kind of destabilizations. We could have perfect replicators but some assholes will try their damndest to hold on to them and everything else out of spite and inflated superiority.

I'd like to think the day programmers are obsolete is the day we've hit some post-scarcity singularity, but there's probably another hundred years of terrible struggle afterwards. We can talk more about it in our cardboard mud huts in a decade or two.

awesomeolion posted:

All the programmers at the Two Sum factory are in shambles.

I want to play a horrible game with stable diffusion art and chat bot programming and voice lines.

I saw something on YouTube where they claimed an AI wrote a Phoenix Wright script. It was surreal.

Vulture Culture
Jul 14, 2003

I was never enjoying it. I only eat it for the nutrients.

Rocko Bonaparte posted:

I saw something on YouTube where they claimed an AI wrote a Phoenix Wright script. It was surreal.
ChatGPT is remarkably good at writing Disco Elysium dialogue, for what it's worth

CPColin
Sep 9, 2003

Big ol' smile.

Mega Comrade posted:

If it takes our jobs then for certain it's taken most other peoples jobs too by that point. And by then society out of necessity will be doing some kind of universal basic income. So I finally get to enjoy my hobbies.

And then you sit down to read a book and your reading glasses break. It's just not fair!

thotsky
Jun 7, 2005

hot to trot
I asked ChatGPT to write me a sentiment analysis program in Java and it came up with a working solution that scored input based on instances of words from two lists of positive and negative words, respectively. A banal solution, sure, and probably just copied wholesale from somewhere, but I know companies that make plenty of money selling services not much more complicated than that.

It's definite progress.

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thotsky
Jun 7, 2005

hot to trot

lifg posted:

I’m going to give a standard answer: It’s not going to put programmers out of jobs, but it may change the types of jobs we do.

And honestly, good.

There will still be jobs, potentially even completely new types of jobs, but there's no guarantee that most programmers will have any aptitute, or obvious path to those jobs.

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