MLB Offseason: It's All About the Positions He Doesn't Play

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > MLB Offseason: It's All About the Positions He Doesn't Play

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Who's your 2022 MVP? This poll is closed.
Shohei Ohtani	50	59.52%
Aaron Judge	19	22.62%
Hey, the national league has an MVP too you know!	15	17.86%
Total:	84 votes

[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

bawfuls: Oct 28, 2009

also, you are all welcome thread, for the deals that just broke clearly as a result of my efforts to generate a stimulating topic of off-season discussion

bawfuls fucked around with this message at 18:49 on Dec 5, 2022

# ? Dec 5, 2022 18:39

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# ? May 28, 2024 10:18

Dinosaurs!: May 22, 2003

That�s a ridiculous AAV for a 39 year old, even if it�s Verlander.

# ? Dec 5, 2022 18:42

Big Mean Jerk: Jan 27, 2009; Well, of course I know him.
He's me.

RIP to JV�s arm

Hopefully now we can move on to signing Contreras and either bringing Uncle Mike back or finding a replacement.

# ? Dec 5, 2022 18:42

davecrazy: Nov 25, 2004; I'm an insufferable shitposter who does not deserve to root for such a good team. Also, this is what Matt Harvey thinks of me and my garbage posting.

Kate Upton in a Mets hat.

# ? Dec 5, 2022 18:42

Nodoze: Aug 17, 2006; If it's only for a night I can live without you

bawfuls posted:

I disagree, because of how these different achievements have changed over time.

60+ home runs has always been hard, in all eras of the game. Something about the way the metagame of baseball has evolved has maintained that.

Innings totals meanwhile have consistently declined over the course of baseball's history. Clearly there is something evolving in the metagame which drives this. To argue otherwise is to argue that plumbers from the 19th century who threw 600+ IP were the greatest pitchers of all time and I think we can all understand why that's a nonsensical position.

The change in workload must be related to a change in the nature of the work, not in the innate durability of the pitcher. The most obvious explanation is that guys have to throw max effort or close to it on essentially every pitch now, while their predecessors did not.

Of course the guys throwing 600 innings were not the best.

My point was in this argument you can't just assume that Ohtani would have little to no dropoff by pitching 240 innings back then while also saying Judge would just hit exactly what he did. If Ohtani is going to be able to do that because the competition is lower then Judge is probably going to do something approaching early 2000s Barry Bonds.

# ? Dec 5, 2022 18:43

MrMidnight: Aug 3, 2006

davecrazy posted:

Kate Upton in a Mets hat.

The real get for Mets fans

# ? Dec 5, 2022 18:43

Sab0921: Aug 2, 2004; This for my justices slingin' thangs, rib breakin' kings / Truck, necklace, robe, gavel and things / For the solicitors seein' them dissents spin and grin / That robe with the lace trim that win.

So the Mets are paying like $90MM for 2 pitchers that are 39 and 40?

# ? Dec 5, 2022 18:45

IcePhoenix: Sep 18, 2005; Take me to your Shida

bawfuls posted:

The change in workload must be related to a change in the nature of the work, not in the innate durability of the pitcher. The most obvious explanation is that guys have to throw max effort or close to it on essentially every pitch now, while their predecessors did not.

IIRC there was a sportscience on this at some point. The overhand throwing motion is something that the body is generally not naturally mechanically designed for, despite it being more effective, and so as pitch speeds get higher more strain is put on the body. There's also just a natural genetic limit that the body can withstand before breaking (for some more gruesome examples there's been a few times where a pitcher just straight up broke his arm from the force of throwing the ball). So I think it's less that more pitchers are throwing max effort all the time and more that max effort continues to climb closer to the boy's natural breaking point, meaning more strain is put on everything.

# ? Dec 5, 2022 18:45

Darude - Adam Sandstorm: Aug 16, 2012

https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/1599821364818386944

How much money is Rogers actually spending this year??? The Jays are only like 25-30 million from the tax threshold and they've never crossed it.

So go get Judge

# ? Dec 5, 2022 18:47

fast cars loose anus: Mar 2, 2007; Pillbug

mcmagic posted:

Schilling is 100% NOT a bigger hole than Bonds, Arod, Manny and Clemens. Come on.

bawfuls posted:

Yeah I�m gonna say the omission of the guy with the most MVPs ever and the guy with the most Cy Young�s ever are more egregious than the omission of the nazi with the ketchup sock.

I was segregating Schilling as a "kept out for being an rear end in a top hat" as opposed to "kept out for PEDs" obviously Clemens and Bonds are bigger players

Also not surprised Crane wouldn't pay that much for Verlander

# ? Dec 5, 2022 18:48

Popete: Oct 6, 2009; This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs; Grimey Drawer

bawfuls posted:

I disagree, because of how these different achievements have changed over time.

60+ home runs has always been hard, in all eras of the game. Something about the way the metagame of baseball has evolved has maintained that.

Innings totals meanwhile have consistently declined over the course of baseball's history. Clearly there is something evolving in the metagame which drives this. To argue otherwise is to argue that plumbers from the 19th century who threw 600+ IP were the greatest pitchers of all time and I think we can all understand why that's a nonsensical position.

The change in workload must be related to a change in the nature of the work, not in the innate durability of the pitcher. The most obvious explanation is that guys have to throw max effort or close to it on essentially every pitch now, while their predecessors did not.

it was essentially known a month ago, we've just been waiting for him to get around to the physical to make it official

If you assume Ohtani would pitch more innings if he went back to that era than you'd also have to assume Judge would hit more home runs off pitchers of that era.

# ? Dec 5, 2022 18:50

bawfuls: Oct 28, 2009

No Safe Word posted:

Even as someone who just did this with "team dynasties", comparing baseball players/seasons across eras is essentially impossible and/or pointless.

doing it at a team level is far more possible though, doing it at an individual level is just isnane

Nodoze posted:

Of course the guys throwing 600 innings were not the best.

My point was in this argument you can't just assume that Ohtani would have little to no dropoff by pitching 240 innings back then while also saying Judge would just hit exactly what he did. If Ohtani is going to be able to do that because the competition is lower then Judge is probably going to do something approaching early 2000s Barry Bonds.

Popete posted:

If you assume Ohtani would pitch more innings if he went back to that era than you'd also have to assume Judge would hit more home runs off pitchers of that era.

I'm more interested in "what would the mid-60's version of Ohtani's season looks like and how would people of the time have received it in comparison to a similar Judge season?"

You can make up a player to stand in for Ohtani if that helps the thought exercise more than "transporting" him back.
Ohtani's pitching this year was 6.2 bWAR, with a 172 ERA+ in only 166 IP.
Bob Gibson's '64 season was 6.0 bWAR and his '65 was 6.3 bWAR. He threw ~295IP each of those years with a 126 ERA+.
Or Tom Seaver in 1970: 5.8 bWAR, 290 IP, 143 ERA+, 7th place CYA finish.
Or Gary Peters in 1963: 6.0 bWAR, 243 IP, 150 ERA+, 8th place MVP finish

So pretend it's a pitching season that is worth similar by bWAR, but looks more like 6-WAR seasons did back then: higher IP volume, worse ERA+. Combine it with his ~3.5 WAR offensive production, which looks similar across eras.

bawfuls fucked around with this message at 18:55 on Dec 5, 2022

# ? Dec 5, 2022 18:50

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

MrMidnight posted:

My gut feeling is Rodon to Dodgers

Well the Yankees are small time compared to the Dodgers so if there is a bidding war for him I�m sure the Dodgers would win.

# ? Dec 5, 2022 18:51

Nodoze: Aug 17, 2006; If it's only for a night I can live without you

bawfuls posted:

I'm more interested in "what would the mid-60's version of Ohtani's season looks like and how would people of the time received it in comparison to a similar Judge season?"

You can make up a player to stand in for Ohtani if that helps the thought exercise more than "transporting" him back. Ohtani's pitching this year was 6.2 bWAR. Bob Gibson's '64 season was 6.0 bWAR and his '65 was 6.3 bWAR. He threw ~295IP each of those years with a 126 ERA+. Or Tom Seaver in 1970: 5.8 bWAR, 290IP, 143 ERA+, 7th place CYA finish.

So pretend it's a pitching season that is worth similar by bWAR, but looks more like 6-WAR seasons did back then: higher IP volume, worse ERA+. Combine it with his ~3.5 WAR offensive production, which looks similar across eras.

Koufax won an MVP but it took him putting up a 10.7 fWAR and having an all time great pitching season. I think that's probably what it would have taken TBH. He finished 2nd in 66 with another 10+ WAR year, which sadly was the last year he ever pitched

# ? Dec 5, 2022 18:56

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/brianmctaggart/status/1599823684104904706

So you think he goes into the hall as a Met

That WHIP is ungodly

# ? Dec 5, 2022 18:57

Big Mean Jerk: Jan 27, 2009; Well, of course I know him.
He's me.

Unless he either completely falls apart or throws three more Cy seasons for the Mets, I still stay he�s a blank hat guy.

# ? Dec 5, 2022 18:59

Popete: Oct 6, 2009; This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs; Grimey Drawer

I think he's a blank hat guy but I still think if he were to choose one it would be the Tigers, he played a long time there.

# ? Dec 5, 2022 19:01

AlbertFlasher: Feb 14, 2006; Hulk Hogan and the Wrestling Boot Band

mcmagic posted:

https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1599816869044957185

Boooo should have gone to the Jays

# ? Dec 5, 2022 19:02

The Pussy Boss: Nov 2, 2004

Fun fact, Hector Gomez actually broke the Verlander news last night. It was based on an Instagram screenshot so I thought it was too goofy to post, but it was 100% legit lol

https://twitter.com/hgomez27/status/1599646549663191042

# ? Dec 5, 2022 19:04

Traxis: Jul 2, 2006

mcmagic posted:

Well the Yankees are small time compared to the Dodgers so if there is a bidding war for him I�m sure the Dodgers would win.

It's going to be interesting to see if the Dodgers decide to stay under the CBT this year to reset the penalty. If so they have about $40-50m to spend depending on how arbitration shakes out. Also, if Bauer's suspension somehow gets reduced on appeal that would throw a wrench into things.

# ? Dec 5, 2022 19:05

Big Mean Jerk: Jan 27, 2009; Well, of course I know him.
He's me.

Popete posted:

I think he's a blank hat guy but I still think if he were to choose one it would be the Tigers, he played a long time there.

Debut team definitely has the advantage in that kind of situation.

Every time it comes up for JV and people act like having him go in as an Astro is a done deal I�m kinda baffled. Yes, the numbers show he had an absolute stellar run here. But he also 1) came in at the last minute in 2017 (a season now marred by asterisks even if he didn�t have a hand in it), 2) only pitched 3 full seasons here, and 3) threw one game in 2020 and then missed all of 2021.

Compare that to ~11.5 seasons in Detroit.

# ? Dec 5, 2022 19:09

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/MLBMetrics/status/1599828449484427264

# ? Dec 5, 2022 19:11

Sydin: Oct 29, 2011; Another spring commute

https://twitter.com/martinonyc/status/1599819633422655489

lol welp mcmagic was right Yankees are a small market team now.

# ? Dec 5, 2022 19:19

Penisaurus Sex: Feb 3, 2009; asdfghjklpoiuyt

Mariners are 2-3 moves away from having a really good off-season. Still need 2 more corner OF and probably a decent starter.

# ? Dec 5, 2022 19:25

bawfuls: Oct 28, 2009

Nodoze posted:

Koufax won an MVP but it took him putting up a 10.7 fWAR and having an all time great pitching season. I think that's probably what it would have taken TBH. He finished 2nd in 66 with another 10+ WAR year, which sadly was the last year he ever pitched

That's what it took to win an MVP as a pitcher without adding any value offensively. This has always been rare and difficult.

The interesting wrinkle about Ohtani is how the addition of his hitting compliments this.

IcePhoenix posted:

IIRC there was a sportscience on this at some point. The overhand throwing motion is something that the body is generally not naturally mechanically designed for, despite it being more effective, and so as pitch speeds get higher more strain is put on the body. There's also just a natural genetic limit that the body can withstand before breaking (for some more gruesome examples there's been a few times where a pitcher just straight up broke his arm from the force of throwing the ball). So I think it's less that more pitchers are throwing max effort all the time and more that max effort continues to climb closer to the boy's natural breaking point, meaning more strain is put on everything.

I guess this is just how you want to define "max effort." I presume it to mean "closest to the individual body's limit" but maybe modern pitchers are systematically more capable of reaching that limit through kinetic chain analysis or whatever than older generations were. But I kind of doubt that because pitching deliveries are still extremely varied and many even elite pitchers today still have odd motions they developed just because "that's what worked for me when I was coming up" which is the same process that was happening 60+ years ago.

bawfuls fucked around with this message at 19:33 on Dec 5, 2022

# ? Dec 5, 2022 19:26

AlbertFlasher: Feb 14, 2006; Hulk Hogan and the Wrestling Boot Band

Sydin posted:

lol welp mcmagic was right Yankees are a small market team now.

# ? Dec 5, 2022 19:29

bawfuls: Oct 28, 2009

Reminder that thanks to Wade Boggs (RIP) and the Rays, players no longer have the final say in their HoF plaque cap.

Verlander seems like a black cap guy to me. He had a long run in Detroit but so much significant success after that. Detroit wouldn't surprise me at this point, but if he does something like win another Cy Young or ring in Queens then I'd have to think blank-cap becomes the prohibitive favorite.

Greinke was always the pitcher of that generation's Big-4 that I presumed would be the blank-cap guy, but Verlander's late career is pushing him that direction too. Scherzer will surely be Washington, and Clayton Kershaw, well making sure that cap says LA has been a franchise priority for awhile now.

bawfuls fucked around with this message at 19:38 on Dec 5, 2022

# ? Dec 5, 2022 19:34

R.D. Mangles: Jan 10, 2004

McGriff needs to go in wearing the Emanski cap it's loving iconic.

# ? Dec 5, 2022 19:37

The Pussy Boss: Nov 2, 2004

When I think of Justin Verlander, I think of those starts in Detroit where he would sit 90-95, then in like the 7th inning he'd dial it up to 99 to get out of a jam, and then he'd pitch the 8th and 9th too because gently caress you, that's why

# ? Dec 5, 2022 19:40

maffew buildings: Apr 29, 2009; too dumb to be probated; not too dumb to be autobanned

i think zack greinke should be allowed to go in wearing the hat of his favorite brand of lawnmower

# ? Dec 5, 2022 19:58

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

*fishing pole

# ? Dec 5, 2022 20:01

maffew buildings: Apr 29, 2009; too dumb to be probated; not too dumb to be autobanned

it's very cool and considerate of the Cubbies and Boegarts to delay the news that he's coming to Wrigleyville so this offseasons biggest deal gets the appropriate attention

# ? Dec 5, 2022 20:04

The Pussy Boss: Nov 2, 2004

Rodon probably wants 6/200 and the way teams are spending, he might just get it

# ? Dec 5, 2022 20:04

Vertical Lime: Dec 11, 2004

davecrazy posted:

Kate Upton in a Mets hat.

this generation's anna benson

# ? Dec 5, 2022 20:06

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

The Pussy Boss posted:

Rodon probably wants 6/200 and the way teams are spending, he might just get it

He's worth it.

# ? Dec 5, 2022 20:19

Sab0921: Aug 2, 2004; This for my justices slingin' thangs, rib breakin' kings / Truck, necklace, robe, gavel and things / For the solicitors seein' them dissents spin and grin / That robe with the lace trim that win.

Vertical Lime posted:

this generation's anna benson

This is rude to both Kate Upton and Justin Verlander.

# ? Dec 5, 2022 20:34

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1599850410553982976

Gentlemen, cool down the stove please

https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/1599850626975834112

Lmao that's gonna be fun in his years 35-40.

zoux fucked around with this message at 20:40 on Dec 5, 2022

# ? Dec 5, 2022 20:38

Popete: Oct 6, 2009; This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs; Grimey Drawer

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

# ? Dec 5, 2022 20:40

Nodoze: Aug 17, 2006; If it's only for a night I can live without you

Philly not messing around

# ? Dec 5, 2022 20:41

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# ? May 28, 2024 10:18

Penisaurus Sex: Feb 3, 2009; asdfghjklpoiuyt

Less dollars, more years than I expected.

Glad we can end the Trea Turner watches elsewhere though.

# ? Dec 5, 2022 20:41

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > MLB Offseason: It's All About the Positions He Doesn't Play

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