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Vova seems totally normal justifying attacks on civilian infrastructure to his officers, not at all in Yeltsin mode. https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1600897228263989249 There's a longer version of this where he clinks his glass with those of the soldiers at the end, wishing them a good new year.
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Dec 8, 2022 20:31
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Wasn't Putin renowned for not being a drinker in the past? If he's hitting the booze in public now, that's pretty notable.
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Dec 8, 2022 20:46
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A new Russian propaganda targeting those who fed Russia to avoid mobilization. "The boys have left but the men have stayed." It looks all those people leaving had an effect if the government felt that they had to address it. https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1600487963783270400?s=20&t=KxP59n59gpxeDanqj1bDTw
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Dec 8, 2022 20:51
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Eric Cantonese posted:Wasn't Putin renowned for not being a drinker in the past? If he's hitting the booze in public now, that's pretty notable. It's part of his built image, just like the story of his conversion to Christianity.
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Dec 8, 2022 20:52
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Eric Cantonese posted:Wasn't Putin renowned for not being a drinker in the past? If he's hitting the booze in public now, that's pretty notable. His sobriety was directly contrasted with Yeltsin, yes.
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Dec 8, 2022 20:52
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Eric Cantonese posted:Wasn't Putin renowned for not being a drinker in the past? If he's hitting the booze in public now, that's pretty notable. He's definitely uncharacteristically temperate for an old Russian man. Reportedly he took a liking to Radeberger beer while he was stationed in East Germany in the 80s and was a fixture in the pub Am Thor in Dresden (they recently banned him) but speculation abounds that this was a cover for meeting informants. In Russia beer counts as a soft drink though. He's made great efforts to fight alcoholism in Russia, so appearing drunk on TV is... unexpected. I must say, great optics literally drinking champagne in a gilded room while soldiers lose life and limb to trench foot, frostbite, starvation and sudden disintegration from above. 
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Dec 8, 2022 21:08
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FishBulbia posted:His sobriety was directly contrasted with Yeltsin, yes. I think it was WTYP that recalled a Yeltsin story where he got so blasted, fell into a river and some bums living under the bridge fished him out.
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Dec 8, 2022 21:17
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Discussing things immediately in the news cycle is fine, and these discussions have always taken precedence over the content-specific thread guidance, within reason. In other words, if you’re keen on hashing out something about the possible end of war scenarios, moments like this, when HonorableTB posted:To kind of get away from the grisly talk of a targeted artillery assassination (skill of the Ukrainian artillery men notwithstanding), if it's okay to talk about what seems like a likely outcome in the near future, what happens when Ukraine retakes Donetsk or Luhansk cities? Might want to clarify your statement a bit, if this isn't want you meant.
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Dec 8, 2022 21:18
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FishBulbia posted:Because it's where they can fight their adversary? Generally you try not to attack into the enemy strong points. Instead you flank, maneuver, etc to try to bypass areas of strength and thus win without taking heavy losses. If you do choose a bloody assault on a strong point you hope to get something worth the price in return. FishBulbia posted:I'm not saying that the Russian commander is some tactical genius, that capturing it is feasible, or that the costs outweigh the strategic value, but if the city had no strategic value, then Ukraine would not be throwing so much at its defense. No, actually it is reasonable to hold a strategically unimportant point on the defense. In fact you would often prefer to do so, since you have the option of withdrawal if things go badly. It would be much worse to have to defend a strategically critical point which you could not abandon. This is why tench lines are often built in open fields. It's not that the field is critical but rather you want to defend unimportant points far in front of things that are important so you have room to fall back. FishBulbia posted:The story of an independent Wagner initiative is compelling, but at this point, deaths have been so high, that there has to be something on the line there. It comes down to how dysfunctional do you think the Russian command is. Is there overall strategic planning and rational allocation of forces or is the army competing with Wagner in a nightmarish bureaucratic turf fight where each faction is judged by how far they advance on their randomly assigned segments of front?
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Dec 8, 2022 21:26
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saratoga posted:Generally you try not to attack into the enemy strong points. Instead you flank, maneuver, etc to try to bypass areas of strength and thus win without taking heavy losses. If you do choose a bloody assault on a strong point you hope to get something worth the price in return. To add to this, Ukraine has obviously realized that the Russians seem motivated to waste any offensive momentum on a marginally important objective and are happy to oblige them. Ukraine's strategic objective might not be any more developed than, "This is a place where we can kill Russians and make them waste resources."
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Dec 8, 2022 21:37
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Pook Good Mook posted:To add to this, Ukraine has obviously realized that the Russians seem motivated to waste any offensive momentum on a marginally important objective and are happy to oblige them. Ukraine's strategic objective might not be any more developed than, "This is a place where we can kill Russians and make them waste resources." And is there any evidence that Russia doesn't understand the engagement in the same terms?
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Dec 8, 2022 21:41
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FishBulbia posted:And is there any evidence that Russia doesn't understand the engagement in the same terms? The evidence would be that the Russians are attacking and wasting resources whereas the Ukrainians are defending. They have to devote resources too, but defence is much more efficient than attack.
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Dec 8, 2022 21:44
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Beffer posted:The evidence would be that the Russians are attacking and wasting resources whereas the Ukrainians are defending. They have to devote resources too, but defence is much more efficient than attack. They have artillery you know?
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Dec 8, 2022 21:49
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Nenonen posted:They have artillery you know? An absolute advantage with it, no less.
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Dec 8, 2022 21:51
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Crow Buddy posted:Might want to clarify your statement a bit, if this isn't want you meant. Reintegration of “LDNR” is not a headline item today. Macron’s statement is 4 days old now, and the “waiver” is such cases applies basically to just the day, two days maximum - that’s been the state of affairs in this thread for more than half a year now. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 22:04 on Dec 8, 2022 |
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Dec 8, 2022 22:01
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HonorableTB posted:To kind of get away from the grisly talk of a targeted artillery assassination (skill of the Ukrainian artillery men notwithstanding), if it's okay to talk about what seems like a likely outcome in the near future, what happens when Ukraine retakes Donetsk or Luhansk cities? How about just saying "Hey, let's keep it about current events." Or some such before just probating someone who is curious?
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Dec 8, 2022 22:07
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Mr. Apollo posted:A new Russian propaganda targeting those who fed Russia to avoid mobilization. "The boys have left but the men have stayed." It looks all those people leaving had an effect if the government felt that they had to address it. Next up: white feathers!
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Dec 8, 2022 22:12
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Losses at Verdun were pretty equal on both sides for whatever that comparison is worth
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Dec 8, 2022 22:14
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RoyKeen posted:How about just saying "Hey, let's keep it about current events." Or some such before just probating someone who is curious? Not in this case, as you can see. They’re not new in the thread; the offence is something I explicitly warned I’ll crack down harsher on recently; and, most importantly, “I don’t want to add anything to the current topic so let’s have an arbitrary derail” shouldn’t ever be your opener.
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Dec 8, 2022 22:18
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Mr. Apollo posted:A new Russian propaganda targeting those who fed Russia to avoid mobilization. "The boys have left but the men have stayed." It looks all those people leaving had an effect if the government felt that they had to address it.  SERVICE GUARANTEES CITIZENSHIP (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Dec 8, 2022 22:26
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FishBulbia posted:And is there any evidence that Russia doesn't understand the engagement in the same terms? I think this is not a useful question. Clearly professional soldiers and officers understand basic military concepts. It is their job. However militaries and governments often behave collectively in ways that are inconsistent with the knowledge of individuals within that organization. This is the general point I was making above about how dysfunctional you think their command is. Clearly a lot of terrible decisions were made earlier, often forced from above by Moscow. This true even though I think individual commanders are probably competent. Some people are going to look at ongoing bad decisions and interpret them as a continuation. aphid_licker posted:Losses at Verdun were pretty equal on both sides for whatever that comparison is worth There was also no net change in the lines, meaning both sides where equally attacking and defending. If you look at something like the battle of the Somme where the Germans are defending, they absorb a massive artillery barrage and still come out with 2/3 the casualties and way less expenditure of resources. That seems more like what we are seeing here where one side is battering the other inconclusively.
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Dec 8, 2022 22:30
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The Ukrainian MOD has been pretty good about valuing lives and retreating when it makes sense, so it would be out of character for them to defend Bakhmut out of sheer stubbornness. Beyond inflicting casualties, I'd like to note that Ukraine may not want to break Russia's current losing streak. The longer that streak drags out, the better Ukraine looks for their backers and the worse things get for Russia internally. Even a well planned, well executed retreat from Bakhmut could jeopardize that.
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Dec 8, 2022 22:37
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Scratch Monkey posted:
the funny bit is that you actually can get russian citizenship after 3 years' service (out of 5*) as a kontratktnik if you are an 18-30 male. Qualifications are be physically capable and have enough russian to sign up and pass training- citizens of all countries are invited. This incredible opportunity is open to even many goons. The russian army is literally like the French Foreign Legion but with lower qualifications and they won't teach you the language. *dunno what happens between years 3 and 5 but making it to 3 is something at this point Edgar Allen Ho fucked around with this message at 23:02 on Dec 8, 2022 |
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Dec 8, 2022 22:59
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Haystack posted:The Ukrainian MOD has been pretty good about valuing lives and retreating when it makes sense, so it would be out of character for them to defend Bakhmut out of sheer stubbornness. Beyond inflicting casualties, I'd like to note that Ukraine may not want to break Russia's current losing streak. The longer that streak drags out, the better Ukraine looks for their backers and the worse things get for Russia internally. Even a well planned, well executed retreat from Bakhmut could jeopardize that. These are two conflicting statements.
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Dec 8, 2022 23:06
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aphid_licker posted:These are two conflicting statements. They're really not. The Ukrainian MOD has been good about spending lives carefully, and they're likely taking Russia's overall momentum into account.
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Dec 8, 2022 23:27
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:the funny bit is that you actually can get russian citizenship after 3 years' service (out of 5*) as a kontratktnik if you are an 18-30 male. […]. This incredible opportunity is open to even many goons. Probably like 1% of people on SA are under 30, unfortunately for all of us. Thanks for letting us know though! We can spread the word, at least.
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Dec 8, 2022 23:28
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Saladman posted:Probably like 1% of people on SA are under 30, unfortunately for all of us. Thanks for letting us know though! We can spread the word, at least. As someone who spends some time daily on Reddit I can tell you it is a VERY fortunate thing that the SA crowd tends to lean older.
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Dec 8, 2022 23:34
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The kids are not alright.
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Dec 8, 2022 23:37
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Along with Putin getting drunk on camera, there's talk among the siloviki of potential evacuation plans by the Putin regime. https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1600841041346560002?t=i3n6ZjvURMx6TKbM_zIrgg&s=19 This type of talk would have been outrageous a year ago, with Putin's reign pretty much assured for the next decade. Now it's almost a given that if he loses the war with Ukraine, he'll lose control of Russia. Things feel like they are moving far faster than expected.
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Dec 9, 2022 00:03
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I don't know where you're getting that he was drunk from. Despite his sobriety, he often had a glass of champagne at public events, it's not out of the ordinary. He's also been acting increasingly twitchy and slurring words with age, it's not new. Also, not sure how much I trust Gallyamov's sources on the escape plan. All ex-Putin team members who claimed to have any inside knowledge into his current plans were wrong much more often than not. Gallyamov has some interesting things to say about how Putin's ideology formed and evolved, but in terms of actual decision-making process in today's Kremlin, I don't think he can speak with great authority. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 01:38 on Dec 9, 2022 |
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Dec 9, 2022 00:28
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Palace intrigue rumors are compelling, easy to make up, and almost impossible to disprove. Perfect fodder for a winter lull in the news cycles.
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Dec 9, 2022 00:33
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December 4-8 round-up No Twitter this time as well, but the thread covered that well anyhow. Other summaries https://zona.media/chronicle/288 https://zona.media/chronicle/287 https://zona.media/chronicle/286 https://zona.media/chronicle/285 https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-dec-7-8 https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-dec-6-7 https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-dec-5-6 https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-dec-6-7 https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-dec-5-6 https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-dec-4-5 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-7 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-6 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-5 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-4 UAF is expecting open fronts in Bakhmut and Avdiivka. https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02uJ3ZRZN7zh4scFvZKT2Vdgg4D78q2Gp8tnkzsTfW6Zr3ferWxtHFkxVUCmSxg7r1l EU is looking into mining sanctions (+ incremental gains on existing things) for Russia (already blocked by Hungary, unsurprisingly). https://www.ft.com/content/09424014-da48-44fb-b602-10a55f001fc6 Hungary blocks an aid package for Ukraine. https://www.ft.com/content/5ac5e2ec-c4b9-404c-b8e5-8b72f96c4568 Reznikov says UAF have approved for use 7 Ukrainian UAVs in the last 30 days, with 19 more in the pipeline. Old turn around times were 1-2 per year. https://www.facebook.com/reznikovoleksii/posts/pfbid0ypuysNGiAwkkpgUFy8xq4hbV178qWanAF5r8okH7GciXZMPiNm3M6nVPD7eR2UULl New UN report on civilian killings in Ukraine - 441 in the first six weeks of this invasion. https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/2022-12/2022-12-07-OHCHR-Thematic-Report-Killings-EN.pdf There are some rumours that the drones used in the Kursk, Ryazan', and Saratov military base air strikes were actually not Tu-141 or something by the state MIC, but by something fresh from the private MIC sector. https://www.ft.com/content/092a9022-21ef-4e6c-8d57-895564c01883 Supposedly, some kind of military target was hit by UAF in Belgorod oblast'. https://t.me/belpepel/229 Sevastopol' governor says that a Black Sea Fleet patrol vessel has taken down a drone of unspecified sort. https://t.me/razvozhaev/1576 Putin had a presser with a whole load of bloviating. Of the noteworthy, he's now admitting that "this might be a long process". http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70046 A look at life in a town that's gone through Russian occupation. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/08/world/europe/ukraine-russia-loyalty-sviatohirsk.html And explainer on "peculiarities" of accounting for Russian diesel in the European oil sanctions. https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/explainer-europe-set-to-import-banned-russian-diesel-without-knowing/ Ukrainians are saying that Kherson's civil infrastructure is under Russian fire every other hour, essentially. https://censor.net/ru/news/3385537/ataki_na_infrastrukturu_v_hersonskoyi_oblasti_osuschestvlyayutsya_kajdye_2_chasa In general, they're saying that roughly 50% of the national energy generation capacity (yeah, it's vague) is impaired. https://censor.net/ru/news/3385532/v_ukraine_povrejdeno_okolo_50_generiruyuschih_moschnosteyi People are apparently... still living in Bakhmut?  https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/07/world/europe/bakhmut-war-sounds.htmlA military court in Russia has declared illegal the "prone to betrayal and lies" stamps that objectors were getting. https://zona.media/news/2022/12/07/kukareko Reznikov claims Russia is down to 13% on Iskander stockpiles, and 30% on Kalibr stockpiles. Simultaneously, he says that Russia is not at risk of running out of S-300. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3629117-reznikov-ociniv-zaliski-raketnogo-arsenalu-rosii-13-iskanderiv-30-kalibriv-i-tisaci-s300.html Former minister of agriculture of Russia reportedly has "appropriated" a bit of farmland in Donbas. https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-oligarch-seizes-400-000-acres-of-ukrainian-farmland-owners-say-11670338956?mod=hp_lead_pos10 Apparently there was some kind of opposition activists' congress in Berlin. Seems to have been a bit spicy. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/07/world/europe/russia-putin-opposition-ukraine-war.html FT looked into a suspicious Russian oil tanker, which looked like it's doing sanctions busting. https://www.ft.com/content/90dcc9b7-3371-411e-9d80-a2be0b4c10ca  Turkey has introduced an insurance requirement for oil ships crossing the Turkish Straits (in response to the oil price cap measures). https://www.ft.com/content/dc40a88f-7d20-4a17-a37c-332f35b65942 Cool report dating the missiles used in the recent bombing campaign. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/81bc6b71fdc64361a05a21020c3d6d5e NYT cites sources saying that one of the long-distance strikes into Russia had a last-mile guidance from special forces on the ground. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/1...e-russian-media FT took an interview from Zelenskyy. One of the notable things he claims is that Ukraine did not receive any actionable intelligence about the impending attack. https://www.ft.com/content/9599247f-c3cb-4d3c-a0b6-771f0aac8699 NYT wrote a piece on post-liberation life in Kherson. It's expectedly dour. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/05/world/europe/ukraine-kherson-russia.html Car traffic has broadly resumed on the Kerch bridge. I think this still excludes cargo trucks, and, apparently, Putin did visit it for reopening. https://t.me/interfaxonline/27548 WSJ's sources claim that Ukrainian HIMARS are unable to fire ATACMS even if they were delivered to them, somehow. https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-altered-himars-rocket-launchers-to-keep-ukraine-from-firing-missiles-into-russia-11670214338 There were some Dutch investigators dispatched to Ukraine, on a probe for ICC. https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/dutch-investigation-team-gathers-evidence-for-icc-ukraine-probe/ Yet another look at the effects of sanctions. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/05/world/europe/ukraine-war-sanctions-russia-economy.html A mobilization target got baited into meeting cops through a false Craigslist call on his phone repair side hustle. https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/20...obiavlenii-news Uralvagonzavod claims that they've shipped off a batch of T-72B3M, which appears to be a 2018 T-72 modernization inspired by T-90M. The manufacturer claims meaningfully improved survivability versus generic anti-tank weaponry, and I'm not sure if that is to be interpreted as a explanation of what "M" is, or if it's an even more recent modernization pack, as in "B3M2" or "B4", quote-unquote, with extra survivability relative to T-72B3M. https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/16483219
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Dec 9, 2022 01:01
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As if he'd be allowed to survive even if he escapes the country. They defenestrate minor intelligence officers. It will be an assassination after an ex parte show trial.
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Dec 9, 2022 01:35
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It is sort of remarkable the places civilians will stay in during war. It seems crazy that one of common reasons people go back/don't leave is a lack of a place to stay. Guess supplies and shelters are not up to demand?
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Dec 9, 2022 01:58
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WarpedLichen posted:It is sort of remarkable the places civilians will stay in during war. It seems crazy that one of common reasons people go back/don't leave is a lack of a place to stay. Guess supplies and shelters are not up to demand? Not necessarily. A lot of European refugee programs come with all sort of de facto caveats, for instance. In Latvia I know that we were helping them with money only for 3 months upon arrival, and the public housing was not even remotely able to absorb the whole flow. And so they would return to Ukraine after like 3-6 months, or however long their runway was on that, since sustaining themselves here is a bit too expensive for the median Ukrainian household with 1 earner, and the real, rather than aspirational, workplaces for the refugees here are far and few in between.
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Dec 9, 2022 06:11
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aphid_licker posted:Losses at Verdun were pretty equal on both sides for whatever that comparison is worth They were only equal because both the German and French were constantly counter-attacking each other, wasting tons of lives
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Dec 9, 2022 09:29
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cr0y posted:Can someone give me a TLDR of the significance of the US going to this multi year munitions manufacturing contract deal thing? I don't understand how going year-to-year for X number of munitions versus multiple years times the same amount of munitions is functionally any different? Federal contracts leak talent between renewals, so things like aerospace manufacturing engineers will jump to SpaceX or blue origin when the contract is up if Congress seems shaky about funding it. And it's much easier to convince a fresh graduate to come onto a project with 2.5 years of contract left than months of contract left. It basically radiates stability. And it's basically 5 years before the Pentagon sells Congress on the new hotness and your procurement gets cut to make budget for production testing the new thing. Edit: WW2 losses had very symmetrical forces fighting pretty much everywhere. There had been huge cross pollination in doctrine, arms(let it sink in that every belligerent but Austria fielded the Maxim gun, and that they had all been ruthlessly spying on each other) and political theory. Basically everyone was pulling from a common pot of ideas, and so down to the structure and density of forces were extremely similar. Barrel Cactaur fucked around with this message at 14:53 on Dec 9, 2022 |
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Dec 9, 2022 13:49
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WarpedLichen posted:It is sort of remarkable the places civilians will stay in during war. It seems crazy that one of common reasons people go back/don't leave is a lack of a place to stay. Guess supplies and shelters are not up to demand?
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Dec 9, 2022 15:19
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https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1601206587485745155?s=20&t=1v_ZzKwwlcguF0BPPM-YLQ Looking back on a couple of months of Surovikin's leadership, with a lot of links for further reading.
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Dec 9, 2022 17:07
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1601206587485745155?s=20&t=1v_ZzKwwlcguF0BPPM-YLQ Thread says Russian strategy is generally weeks to months of strikes versus critical infrastructure before commiting ground forces, but I can't think of a time they've ever done so? I imagine thats a Gulf War-style strategy and doesn't really fit anything Russia has performed. In addition to them not hitting those targets immediately at invasion, their use of support assets has been a weird mix of Soviet style and just bizarrely unfocused. Dandywalken fucked around with this message at 17:25 on Dec 9, 2022 |
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