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Who's your 2022 MVP? This poll is closed. |
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|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani |
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50 | 59.52% |
| Aaron Judge |
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19 | 22.62% |
| Hey, the national league has an MVP too you know! |
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15 | 17.86% |
| Total: | 84 votes | ||
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zoux posted:The problem is they dropped that story in the middle of winter meetings right before all the air got sucked out of the room by Arson Judge. Not even the real trade, a fake one
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Dec 10, 2022 22:06
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| # ? May 28, 2024 18:47 |
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bawfuls posted:baseball writers should keep digging on it, surely there is more they could find out 
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Dec 10, 2022 22:11
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IcePhoenix posted:The value of a dollar 12 years ago is worth about $1.37 today. If the deal isn't frontloaded and is actually evenly spread out you're giving away money by "deferring" it for later years unless you're outpacing that growth. It's why you keep seeing teams do actual deferred money contracts that seem like overpays and then give everyone a laugh on Bobby Bonilla day. The other thing is about the player’s desire to actually play (or attempt to) into their 40s. If you voluntarily retire, you forfeit whatever is left on your contract. I’m 38 with a kid and dread when I have to travel for work, and I’m not on and off planes 6-8 months out of the year. Being an old player who’s probably much worse than my peers away from my family for years is probably worth the extra contract value but you can’t guarantee you’re gonna feel that way by the last few years. You can probably go Heyward and negotiate a release or buyout but that’s just awkward.
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Dec 10, 2022 23:01
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I remember I think it was Gil Meche that left a couple of years on the table to retire, and he was owed a ridiculous amount at the time still I believe Dustin Pedroia also left money on the table to retire, but physically he was not going to be able to do it anyway
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Dec 10, 2022 23:06
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bawfuls posted:baseball writers should keep digging on it, surely there is more they could find out MLB loving with the ball just doesn't seem to spark general fan outrage in the way that steroids or banging the cans did, at least at the moment. The players certainly care, as does a small cabal of weird baseball nerds such as ourselves, but that's about it. It also doesn't help that the report posted here kinda buries the juicy lede, which is that MLB fed Judge juiced balls down the stretch to ensure he broke the HR record and MLB could do a big PR blitz around it. If you only scan the first tweet and then don't feel compelled to dig in all you're gonna get is "there were three types of balls in the MLB this year"
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Dec 10, 2022 23:07
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Sydin posted:MLB loving with the ball just doesn't seem to spark general fan outrage in the way that steroids or banging the cans did, at least at the moment. The players certainly care, as does a small cabal of weird baseball nerds such as ourselves, but that's about it. It also doesn't help that the report posted here kinda buries the juicy lede, which is that MLB fed Judge juiced balls down the stretch to ensure he broke the HR record and MLB could do a big PR blitz around it. If you only scan the first tweet and then don't feel compelled to dig in all you're gonna get is "there were three types of balls in the MLB this year" The threats to fire people over giving away baseballs sure seems juicy, maybe pull that thread a bit.
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Dec 10, 2022 23:31
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Why would baseball writers jeopardize their access and credentials by digging into this story that MLB does not want them to dig into and average fans do not seem to care about?
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Dec 10, 2022 23:51
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wouldn't loving with the ball in specific and detectable ways, and especially to achieve certain desired outcomes, be the kind of game integrity issue that bookmakers and/or congress should care about? seems like a very big deal to me.
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Dec 10, 2022 23:57
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It should be a huge deal, MLB pushed the Judge "clean" home run record chase hard and then it comes out they were specifically altering balls to benefit him. Pair that with MLBs huge push to promote sports gambling and I don't get why it's not being looked into by federal gambling regulators.
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Dec 10, 2022 23:57
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Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:When you can trade your silver slugger and replace him with no bat all glove outifelder coming off of hip surgery, you gotta do it He completely wrecks all Yankee pitching despite being a terrible hitter. I was hoping he’d stay out of the division. Heh
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Dec 11, 2022 00:03
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The Red Sox's GM was interviewed about Bogaerts and indicated that the team did not actually make an offer late in the bidding, and knew that he was probably signing elsewhere at least a day before his contract with the Padres was signed There had been reporting that they had made a late offer, but it seems like that was probably leaked to the media by Bogaerts' people https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/12/red-soxs-chaim-bloom-on-losing-xander-bogaerts-it-got-to-a-point-to-we-werent-going-to.html
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Dec 11, 2022 00:30
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What’s the actual concrete proof of juiced balls here?
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Dec 11, 2022 00:38
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My impression is there isn’t “concrete proof”. It’s some random sources making claims and MLB denying them. People are assuming the former are right and the latter are covering up. Which certainly may well be the case. In a proper scenario there probably be more investigation. Which I guess there might be. We wouldn’t be getting twitter updates by anyone qualified or credible enough to do that. But if MLB is pushing back and no one really cares in the media then it seems unlikely and the whole thing gets left once again to angry fan games of telephone and accusations. Which is a bit of a pattern from MLB hence random accusations of ped users or theories about buzzers or whatever.
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Dec 11, 2022 00:49
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I have a question and maybe it's a dumb one. ...do we know for absolutely certain that the average leadoff slot gets more PAs than the 7/8/9 slots? If we assume that pitchers are at their best with their first two innings, wouldn't it make more sense to bat "out of order" in terms of what you expect their OPS to be?
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Dec 11, 2022 00:49
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mdemone posted:...do we know for absolutely certain that the average leadoff slot gets more PAs than the 7/8/9 slots? ...how could it not work that way?
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Dec 11, 2022 00:52
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elentar posted:...how could it not work that way? If the average game length is such that, e.g. the 5th, 6th guy comes up just as often I mean if the number of PAs per game is not significantly different for batters 1-6 or whatever, why wouldn't you shuffle the lineup to put your best bats coming up in 4/5/6 instead of 1/2/3 mdemone fucked around with this message at 00:56 on Dec 11, 2022 |
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Dec 11, 2022 00:53
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how could the guy who bats first not come up more often than the guy who bats 7th??
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Dec 11, 2022 00:55
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STAC Goat posted:My impression is there isn’t “concrete proof”. It’s some random sources making claims and MLB denying them. People are assuming the former are right and the latter are covering up. Which certainly may well be the case. In a proper scenario there probably be more investigation. Which I guess there might be. We wouldn’t be getting twitter updates by anyone qualified or credible enough to do that. But if MLB is pushing back and no one really cares in the media then it seems unlikely and the whole thing gets left once again to angry fan games of telephone and accusations. Her test results show lots of clear patterns including distinct batches of balls with different characteristics. Her test results have always been denied by MLB, but the league has later admitted the truth of things she found in previous years. There is only so much investigating a non-MLB affiliated lab can do, since they need to source real MLB baseballs to do it. MLB knows this, which is why this year they apparently were trying to stop people from giving Wells baseballs to test. All of this is sketchy as poo poo on MLB's part, and the potential gambling ramifications are serious enough that federal regulators ought to be digging into it now too (I've no idea if they are or not).
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Dec 11, 2022 00:55
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But in that scenario 1 still comes up first and 6 only gets up because someone ahead of him didn’t record an out. No? The leading spot will always be first up so it has to get the most ABs even if it’s matched by 2 or 3 or even 9. 2 will never have more than 1.
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Dec 11, 2022 00:56
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lobster shirt posted:how could the guy who bats first not come up more often than the guy who bats 7th?? What about 4th? 5th? Don't those slots get the same number of PAs on average?
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Dec 11, 2022 00:57
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mdemone posted:If the average game length is such that, e.g. the 5th, 6th guy comes up just as often but the game can end on any lineup slot so the 1st slot will necessarily get the most and the 9th slot the fewest. i don't think that necessarily limits the other half of your question though as the starting pitching approaches shift, especially with universal DH and openers in the mix. batting order seems due a bigger shakeup than "best hitter in the 2 slot".
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Dec 11, 2022 00:57
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STAC Goat posted:But in that scenario 1 still comes up first and 6 only gets up because someone ahead of him didn’t record an out. No? No I get that but if 2 is not significantly less than 1, then sliding the order down would play to the pitcher's fatigue
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Dec 11, 2022 00:58
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mdemone posted:What about 4th? 5th? Don't those slots get the same number of PAs on average? Some games they will all have the same. Some games they won't but if they don't all have the same PA count it is the first spot that will have the most, by definition. So over the course of a season, higher spots come up more. It can not be any other way, at best the later spots can come up the same amount as the first spot. In general the impact of lineup order is extremely small.
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Dec 11, 2022 00:59
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bawfuls posted:Meredith Wills isn't a "random source" she's an astrophysicist who's done extensive independent testing on hundreds (thousands maybe now?) of MLB baseballs over the past several years. “Random source” was definitely too dismissive. I apologize for that. I should have said..: unverified finding? Unsupported? I dunno. I think you know what I’m saying. The proper response should be to test those claims and findings. MLB pathologically rejects such transparency. So we’re left with unfinished information and lots of imagination.
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Dec 11, 2022 00:59
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STAC Goat posted:“Random source” was definitely too dismissive. I apologize for that. I should have said..: unverified finding? Unsupported? I dunno. I think you know what I’m saying. The proper response should be to test those claims and findings. MLB pathologically rejects such transparency. So we’re left with unfinished information and lots of imagination.
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Dec 11, 2022 01:01
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bawfuls posted:It's very simple. It is not possible for any spot in the lineup to get more PAs in a game than any spot ahead of it.  That last part is what I suspected. Still, I want to slide a batting order down by three, start with your 7/8/9 guys, and see what the hell happens every day for a month
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Dec 11, 2022 01:02
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Thread getting dangerously close to "how many days in a week" bodybuilding forum.
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Dec 11, 2022 01:03
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mdemone posted:No I get that but if 2 is not significantly less than 1, then sliding the order down would play to the pitcher's fatigue That just seems like lineup debate. And it’s definitely not a given that every manager puts their best hitter at 1. It’s a growing idea but managers change their minds and adjust their orders to try and get the most out of them. It’s an one an inexact science but the one thing we know is that over the course of a season the leadoff spot will accrue more ABs.
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Dec 11, 2022 01:03
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Yeah I figured it was dumb and some manager in the 60s or whatever had probably tried it
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Dec 11, 2022 01:05
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mdemone posted:I have a question and maybe it's a dumb one. Hi Tony I kid I kid 
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Dec 11, 2022 01:06
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bawfuls posted:What would you consider a verified source? It seems clear that we can't trust MLB's word on this now, so we need testing from an independent entity. I'd be happy to see the union or federal gambling regulators force MLB to comply with independent audits of the baseballs, but that requires action from those parties. Which is why again it would be good if this story got more attention to spur said action. Yeah agreed. MLB is obviously not the person to investigate MLB about things MLB doesn’t want to talk about. There should be some kind of independent party but of course they can’t without MLBs cooperation. Or like… Congressional oversight ? I’m not sure it’s that serious although I guess if you factor the rise of gambling in it maybe inches that way. The OP asked about concrete proof. And that’s just kind of unlikely to get without MLB cooperation. That doesn’t disprove the claims or findings. It just leaves them in investigative and accusation limbo.
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Dec 11, 2022 01:08
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i would like to see a historical summary of changes in lineup construction over time
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Dec 11, 2022 01:08
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if you put a bunch of numbers into baseball simulators you find out the "optimal" lineup is something like: 1 - your highest pure OBP player 2 - your best overall hitter 3 - next best overall hitter after 1/2/4 4 - your best power guy who's not #2 5-9 - in descending order of overall quality But the difference between that and a "traditional" lineup or whatever is maybe 1-2 games over a full season
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Dec 11, 2022 01:09
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STAC Goat posted:That just seems like lineup debate. And it’s definitely not a given that every manager puts their best hitter at 1. It’s a growing idea but managers change their minds and adjust their orders to try and get the most out of them. It’s an one an inexact science but the one thing we know is that over the course of a season the leadoff spot will accrue more ABs. Anyway the reason I started thinking about it is because there was a Twitter debate about Rickey vs. Ichiro for leadoff and I just thought, why wouldn't we bat the better guy 2nd there?
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Dec 11, 2022 01:09
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bawfuls posted:if you put a bunch of numbers into baseball simulators you find out the "optimal" lineup is something like: Now this is the answer I needed. But does that sort of thing account for starting pitchers getting tired with pitch count?
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Dec 11, 2022 01:10
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Intruder posted:Hi Tony Lol is that really a Kornheiser thing, I didn't know
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Dec 11, 2022 01:11
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I mean weights of balls *are* concrete proof. The question left hanging is the why, not the "Are certain batches of balls juiced?" Whether the "Why" is because MLB saw a chance to push Judge over the finish line, or because their manufacturing standards have gotten lax, or because they want to put a finger on the scales for betting markets, or because they're generally an incompetently ran league office that creates problems for themselves that have to be solved with substandard results is up to anyone's guess.
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Dec 11, 2022 01:11
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mdemone posted:Lol is that really a Kornheiser thing, I didn't know LaRussa, who kept batting his pitcher 8th among other things
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Dec 11, 2022 01:12
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elentar posted:LaRussa, who kept batting his pitcher 8th among other things Ohhhh lol poo poo I'm a boomer
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Dec 11, 2022 01:12
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| # ? May 28, 2024 18:47 |
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mdemone posted:Anyway the reason I started thinking about it is because there was a Twitter debate about Rickey vs. Ichiro for leadoff and I just thought, why wouldn't we bat the better guy 2nd there? My instinctual argument (without looking up stats) would be Ichiro at 1 would get on base more and Ricky had more power to drive him in but Ricky at 1 would run the bases more and Ichiro would have better ABs to make sure something productive happens? So that just remains like a philosophical toss up to me. Which is most of baseball which is why there’s a million stats and never ending debates.
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Dec 11, 2022 01:12
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