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What is the most powerful flying bug?
This poll is closed.
🦋 15 3.71%
🦇 115 28.47%
🪰 12 2.97%
🐦 67 16.58%
dragonfly 94 23.27%
🦟 14 3.47%
🐝 87 21.53%
Total: 404 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

GoLambo posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhA1yofpkMg

Douglas Macgregor doesn't seem to think the Ukrainian army is in a particularly good position right now.

Ok so watching this, and the air defense thing is an interesting point.

Seems obvious that those Tu-95 aren't going to be risked against any sort of AA, but they have to getting prepared for something right?

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Futanari Damacy
Oct 30, 2021

by sebmojo

Ardennes posted:

Could be absolutely nothing, could be an absolute cluster gently caress of a general Balkan war, it just has to play out

Historically, from a loss of life standpoint, it's better to ignore whatever's going on there rather than let it blow up into a continent-wide and then worldwide conflagration.

dieselfruit
Feb 21, 2013

Futanari Damacy posted:

More so than the truth of Kosovo, I'd like to know the big deal about Kosovo. Can't recall how many dumb assemblies we had in elementary on account of it.

Peacekeeping is dumb. Let them fight!

"Today we're going to talk about Canada's role as global peacekeepers and how that's an inherent good :) also here's some footage of fighter jets blowing the absolute gently caress out of some pharmaceutical factories"

On reflection, those classroom chats were a pretty pivotal step towards my radicalization.

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

Lostconfused posted:

Ok so watching this, and the air defense thing is an interesting point.

Seems obvious that those Tu-95 aren't going to be risked against any sort of AA, but they have to getting prepared for something right?

firing cruise missiles from hundreds of miles away. the nuclear bombers all got re-equipped to use cruise missiles when AA missiles became a thing

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Futanari Damacy posted:

Historically, from a loss of life standpoint, it's better to ignore whatever's going on there rather than let it blow up into a continent-wide and then worldwide conflagration.

We'll see, but if the US specifically wants to throw its weight around in Kosovo then it very much could go the second way. If this remains, a local conflict, and the Serbs just create a de facto situation on the ground in Kosovo, it could cool off on its own.

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.

Ardennes posted:

I guess the question becomes what they call “phase four” which would be a general Russian offensive. It is clear that from a Russian perspective progress is being made but if the Russians commit they are going to need a 3 to 1 advantage across at least the major axises they are attacking. It seems that tank deliveries are indicating that eventually some type of more major push would happen.

I would say at least that interview does show that this thread isn’t as outside as the mainstream thought in military circles as assumed. The Russians’ true mistake was assuming the US under Biden was going to honestly negotiate with them and this major miscalculation born out of the fact that many of Putin’s advisors were still HSE/Western trained liberals.

The Russians never engaged the bulk of their force (they said 20%) and that Kharkov at least was semi-intentional etc.

There was some surprising praise for the NLAW over the Javelin.

If Russia wants the USA to negotiate America needs to be negatively affected in some way, which so far have been supply chain disruptions and attacks on the petrodollar, but both have been pretty minor. Either that or wait for the presidential election and hope. Getting Europe to withdraw support seems more plausible but that seems like it will be a gradual process and not likely to happen too soon.
I guess if the Russians start taking ground again there is the threat of having less of Ukraine to extract resources from in the future but that's balanced by forcing Russia to keep fighting and expending resources.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Raskolnikov38 posted:

firing cruise missiles from hundreds of miles away. the nuclear bombers all got re-equipped to use cruise missiles when AA missiles became a thing

Why even have planes then? Can't you just fire cruise missiles without them?

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Why even have planes then? Can't you just fire cruise missiles without them?

Gotta fire them from somewhere. Sometimes it's useful if that somewhere can move around.

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Why even have planes then? Can't you just fire cruise missiles without them?

you need something to carry them into range during ww3 but also because the nuclear triad will not be abandoned no matter how obsolete one leg of the stool becomes

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Why even have planes then? Can't you just fire cruise missiles without them?

You can, but it's the most convenient one for Russia right now. They used to be fired from ships in the black sea earlier on in this war, but they switched to planes at a later point.

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Why even have planes then? Can't you just fire cruise missiles without them?

you save a lot of energy when you fire something that only has to go forward and down as opposed to up and down, which means you need less fuel in your missile which means you can put more boom in your missile

also planes are, strangely enough, a lot more mobile than ships or trucks

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Weka posted:

If Russia wants the USA to negotiate America needs to be negatively affected in some way, which so far have been supply chain disruptions and attacks on the petrodollar, but both have been pretty minor. Either that or wait for the presidential election and hope. Getting Europe to withdraw support seems more plausible but that seems like it will be a gradual process and not likely to happen too soon.
I guess if the Russians start taking ground again there is the threat of having less of Ukraine to extract resources from in the future but that's balanced by forcing Russia to keep fighting and expending resources.

In that case it makes more sense for the Russians to in big than draw the conflict out. It is arguable the conditions are still not right for them, but eventually they have ot make a choice; either home something changes in their favor or go in a big way like they honestly should have from the beginning.

Lostconfused posted:

You can, but it's the most convenient one for Russia right now. They used to be fired from ships in the black sea earlier on in this war, but they switched to planes at a later point.

They are still using subs to fire missiles (it is unclear if they are using their frigates or not).

Slavvy
Dec 11, 2012


Looks like Bill Goldberg

Pistol_Pete
Sep 15, 2007

Oven Wrangler
The West's already sending more stuff than it can spare to Ukraine: we've got nothing left to send to Kosovo lol. Can't believe NATO will be eager to open a 2nd front down there.

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.

Ardennes posted:

In that case it makes more sense for the Russians to in big than draw the conflict out. It is arguable the conditions are still not right for them, but eventually they have ot make a choice; either home something changes in their favor or go in a big way like they honestly should have from the beginning.

I'm not sure you are right, it's possible the best they can hope for is a frozen conflict.

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.

Slavvy posted:

Looks like Bill Goldberg

Bill Greenberg.

Pistol_Pete posted:

The West's already sending more stuff than it can spare to Ukraine: we've got nothing left to send to Kosovo lol. Can't believe NATO will be eager to open a 2nd front down there.

It'd be a much smaller front. Serbia's military is ~22,000 dudes.

BGrifter
Mar 16, 2007

Winner of Something Awful PS5 thread's Posting Excellence Award June 2022

Congratulations!

Slavvy posted:

Looks like Bill Goldberg

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Weka posted:

I'm not sure you are right, it's possible the best they can hope for is a frozen conflict.

The Russians are already chewing up the Ukrainians pretty bad both on and off the battlefield. Who knows how far they can go but it is clear the momentum is shifting and the Russians can't just let the conflict go. It doesn't mean another phase will happen necessarily but I wouldn't say the Russians are incapable of it either.

Pistol_Pete posted:

The West's already sending more stuff than it can spare to Ukraine: we've got nothing left to send to Kosovo lol. Can't believe NATO will be eager to open a 2nd front down there.

That is why it would be stupefying if the US/NATO tries to seriously press the Serbs since it would actively work against their goals in Ukraine/everywhere else. The best thing for them is just to give the Serbs a pass this time and keep the situation strategically ambiguous. An actual Balkan War would be a massive distraction and I don't know how many of Serbia's neighbors would be interesting in supporting it.'

Weka posted:

It'd be a much smaller front. Serbia's military is ~22,000 dudes.

22,000 dudes that either the US or NATO needs to fight, and most of European NATO specifically is years away from being ready to do anything. Hell, does the US even have the 50,000-60,000 ground troops it would need to force its way into the region? The best thing by far would be the US and NATO to ignore it beyond a strongly worded letter.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 23:05 on Dec 11, 2022

Slavvy
Dec 11, 2012


:lol: :five:

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

This is what happens to your vision when you’re having an orc-gasm. If your partner doesn’t see things like this then I’m sorry, you gotta up your game.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

Pistol_Pete posted:

The West's already sending more stuff than it can spare to Ukraine: we've got nothing left to send to Kosovo lol. Can't believe NATO will be eager to open a 2nd front down there.

NATO's soft underbelly

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Pistol_Pete posted:

The West's already sending more stuff than it can spare to Ukraine: we've got nothing left to send to Kosovo lol. Can't believe NATO will be eager to open a 2nd front down there.

Should just let the Germans off the chain and have panzers rolling around in SE Europe again. Scare the crap out of everyone.

Edit: But, no. Any of the mid-tier NATO nations could knock Serbia's dick into the dirt if they want to.

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.

Ardennes posted:

The Russians are already chewing up the Ukrainians pretty bad both on and off the battlefield. Who knows how far they can go but it is clear the momentum is shifting and the Russians can't just let the conflict go. It doesn't mean another phase will happen necessarily but I wouldn't say the Russians are incapable of it either.

That is why it would be stupefying if the US/NATO tries to seriously press the Serbs since it would actively work against their goals in Ukraine/everywhere else. The best thing for them is just to give the Serbs a pass this time and keep the situation strategically ambiguous. An actual Balkan War would be a massive distraction and I don't know how many of Serbia's neighbors would be interesting in supporting it.'

22,000 dudes that either the US or NATO needs to fight, and most of European NATO specifically is years away from being ready to do anything. Hell, does the US even have the 50,000-60,000 ground troops it would need to force its way into the region? The best thing by far would be the US and NATO to ignore it beyond a strongly worded letter.

I think the Russians could advance to the Dnieper, but I don't see how that will stop the Nazis from killing anyone who negotiates for peace.

As to NATO interfering in Kosovo, all they have to do is provide arms to Kosovo, which admittedly aren't as plentiful as this time a year ago but at these scales could happen. I think anything kicking off in the Balkans is pretty unlikely but then again most of us said that about Ukraine.

paul_soccer12
Jan 5, 2020

by Fluffdaddy

AnimeIsTrash posted:

reopen the kosovo thread paul

Done

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Weka posted:

I think the Russians could advance to the Dnieper, but I don't see how that will stop the Nazis from killing anyone who negotiates for peace.

As to NATO interfering in Kosovo, all they have to do is provide arms to Kosovo, which admittedly aren't as plentiful as this time a year ago but at these scales could happen. I think anything kicking off in the Balkans is pretty unlikely but then again most of us said that about Ukraine.

Advancing to the Dnieper would probably be enough for the Russians in at least it would cripple Ukraine (more than it is) and give them a sizable buffer-zone. I wouldn't call that a loss for the Russians.

The Kosovars don't really have a formal military and even so anything sent to Kosovo would come from the Ukrainians (and even if it just helmets and small arms). It is a needless distraction and in either case the Serbs would just sit on their side of the river unless NATO openly became involved. There really isn't a win to be had for the West here even if you want to spin it the US is trying to purposefully make Europe weaker.

AnimeIsTrash
Jun 30, 2018


:thanks:

Pistol_Pete
Sep 15, 2007

Oven Wrangler

Zeroisanumber posted:

Should just let the Germans off the chain and have panzers rolling around in SE Europe again. Scare the crap out of everyone.

Edit: But, no. Any of the mid-tier NATO nations could knock Serbia's dick into the dirt if they want to.

Tell that to the Austro-Hungarian empire.

Cuttlefush
Jan 15, 2014

gotta have my purp
paul gonna need you to close that kosovo thread

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.

Ardennes posted:

Advancing to the Dnieper would probably be enough for the Russians in at least it would cripple Ukraine (more than it is) and give them a sizable buffer-zone. I wouldn't call that a loss for the Russians.

I just mean that it would be a frozen conflict rather than something ended by negotiations if they get that buffer zone. A negotiated ending would be vastly preferable but the only way I see it happening is a sea change within the political apparatus of the USA to focus only on China, but that's largely outside of Russia's control.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Weka posted:

I just mean that it would be a frozen conflict rather than something ended by negotiations if they get that buffer zone. A negotiated ending would be vastly preferable but the only way I see it happening is a sea change within the political apparatus of the USA to focus only on China, but that's largely outside of Russia's control.

Well at that point it would be more the Russians making facts on the ground, and the Ukrainians having to accept them. There would also probably at least be a ceasefire if only for the benefit of the Ukrainians.

A negotiated end would obviously be better but the apparatus in DC is obviously not going allow it to happen, and the US is locked in Europe now for the time being. That said, according to cspam, China is going to be on the verge of collapse and "in complete chaos" by Feburary.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 00:23 on Dec 12, 2022

GlassElephant
Oct 25, 2009

Schwere Panzerabteilung 502
Discovered they were Glass Elephants, 27 APR 45

Ardennes posted:

22,000 dudes that either the US or NATO needs to fight, and most of European NATO specifically is years away from being ready to do anything. Hell, does the US even have the 50,000-60,000 ground troops it would need to force its way into the region? The best thing by far would be the US and NATO to ignore it beyond a strongly worded letter.

If an actual conflict with NATO kicks off, NATO air capabilities have been completely untouched by the conflict in Ukraine (aside from sending some AGM-88s). Nobody is going to launch a ground campaign into Serbia.

AnimeIsTrash
Jun 30, 2018

GlassElephant posted:

If an actual conflict with NATO kicks off, NATO air capabilities have been completely untouched by the conflict in Ukraine (aside from sending some AGM-88s). Nobody is going to launch a ground campaign into Serbia.

drat tahts interesting

iCe-CuBe.
Jun 9, 2011
OK so I am actually really excited because we are about to have a new war. Kosovo is now Ukraine, Serbia is Russia and Russia is also Russia. Here is the new Zelensky: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vjosa_Osmani She is,a s you can tell, a smoking hot babe. And yes, I do want her to gently caress my wife. Shes also a total badass. She was reported saying: "Then we will fight in the shade" when Serbian president guy (evil) said he would blot out the sun with rockets.

Anyway with that in mind lets get things moving. Blue Elephant man comes in to post NATO poo poo, my little pony soldier guy says its too early to tell, a bunch of identical tankies with bernie avatrs cry because their favorite red fascist Tito's memory isnt being preserved, etc. I look forward to a good war both in here, and in the verdant and lush sunflower fields of Kosovo.

GlassElephant posted:

If an actual conflict with NATO kicks off, NATO air capabilities have been completely untouched by the conflict in Ukraine (aside from sending some AGM-88s). Nobody is going to launch a ground campaign into Serbia.

hell yes literally came in as i was typing this post. this is freaking epic

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

GlassElephant posted:

If an actual conflict with NATO kicks off, NATO air capabilities have been completely untouched by the conflict in Ukraine (aside from sending some AGM-88s). Nobody is going to launch a ground campaign into Serbia.

Ah okay, this is the time strategic bombing will work.

lobster shirt
Jun 14, 2021

the serbian leader vucic is pretty tall. i wonder if he can hoop.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost
no new wars/interventions allowed until world cup is over. RIP England, no one cares about your team.

GlassElephant
Oct 25, 2009

Schwere Panzerabteilung 502
Discovered they were Glass Elephants, 27 APR 45
Looks like the majority of Odesa has power again, 1.2 million out of 1.5 million restored.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-society/3632104-300000-residents-of-odesa-region-still-have-no-electricity.html

Some weird stuff going on about the earlier post that it would take months.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-drone-attacks-target-power-network-ukraines-odesa-officials-2022-12-10/ posted:

Serhiy Bratchuk, spokesperson for Odesa’s regional administration, said electricity for the city’s population will be restored “in the coming days”, while complete restoration of the networks may take two to three months.

Bratchuk said an earlier Facebook post by the region’s administration, advising some people to consider evacuating, was being investigated by Ukraine’s security services as “an element of the hybrid war” by Russia.

That post has since been deleted.

paul_soccer12
Jan 5, 2020

by Fluffdaddy

GlassElephant posted:

Looks like the majority of Odesa has power again, 1.2 million out of 1.5 million restored.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-society/3632104-300000-residents-of-odesa-region-still-have-no-electricity.html

Some weird stuff going on about the earlier post that it would take months.

AnimeIsTrash posted:

drat tahts interesting

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Ardennes posted:

Ah okay, this is the time strategic bombing will work.

NATO bombed Serbia into submission in 1999, why couldn't they do it again? I opposed that conflict at the time, but for all the 'lol they bombed camouflaged trees that they thought were a tank' stuff that was said after the fact, Serbia still lost the war hard enough that they eventually gave up their president to an international war crimes tribunal.

Dr Kool-AIDS has issued a correction as of 00:48 on Dec 12, 2022

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Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

What's weird about it?

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