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A few pages back there was some discussion regarding TSMC. One of the replies, which, honestly took me by surprise, was suggesting that the US was practicing some corporate neo-colonisation. Anyways, I just wanted to drop off a link to this YT channel which has some good deep-dives and is very much worth a subscribe imo. This vid addresses that hot-take. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzZC6aFsk3M E:  I've done worse snipes than this. url fucked around with this message at 09:08 on Dec 9, 2022 |
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Dec 9, 2022 09:06
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url posted:A few pages back there was some discussion regarding TSMC. 12 minute video. Can you please summarize the points in the video, why it's good, and worth it?
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Dec 9, 2022 09:08
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Ranter posted:12 minute video. Can you please summarize the points in the video, why it's good, and worth it? He concisely summarizes (with light humour) the timescales of the new fabs which the CHIPS Act have subsidized and their roles within the global supply chain. In understanding this, and the strategy of node-1, and also in addition to the other main stages of IC manufacture (packaging), its a reasonable rebuttal to the notion that the US is somehow scalping TSMC/Taiwan. 12 minutes is a good trade here.
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Dec 9, 2022 09:18
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Forgive me if this counts as Clancychat I'm not sure where the line is drawn these days. If Taiwan was invaded by China does anyone know what TSMC would do? Or if there's anything they could realistically do to keep from being swallowed up by the CCP? Like would they self destruct all the IP, try to get as many engineers out of the country as possible, maybe even physically destroy the heavy equipment? And could the fabs they are building in the US act as suitable replacement for their fab work in Taiwan?
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Dec 9, 2022 22:53
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Wouldn't all of that be pretty much state secrets?
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Dec 9, 2022 23:57
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Charliegrs posted:Forgive me if this counts as Clancychat I'm not sure where the line is drawn these days. There are several urban legends around. I think the consensus seems to be that a military buildup is very visible across the strait meaning that the engineers will be shipped to the US. The machinery is going to be trashed to whatever degree is reasonably possible. The fabs in the US will be 1 generation behind the cutting edge. Again, it's all speculation but there was a documented proposal in the US to the above effect.
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Dec 10, 2022 04:43
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Fwiw: You would think that ASML would just remote in and change a single setting to one of the lasers that control the motors. Hey presto $300,000,000 coaster maker. It would take legitimate talent to spot the change, in addition to eons of time. Likely enough to get to the next generation (angstrom I think).
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Dec 10, 2022 08:59
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url posted:Fwiw: "This is a fully functional piece of future technology except one thing has been changed" does not render it nearly as useless as you claim. More realistically, you would want to completely wipe any propriety code (including firmware) and destroy any physical hardware that China could not easily recreate (mirrors, ICs, laser assemblies). Even still, there would certainly be valuable information to help accelerate a domestic program.
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Dec 10, 2022 20:26
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Charlz Guybon posted:Pentagon claims China has doubled their nuclear stockpile in the last two years Is China preparing to simply win a nuclear war? The US and USSR had relatively small, concentrated populations and extremely limited heavy industry compared to modern China, and their nuclear stockpiles were into the 50k/each range just as a deterrent. Would the smaller modern US stockpile even scratch a target like China that's an order of magnitude larger and more industrialized?
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Dec 10, 2022 21:30
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The PRC is in no position to win a nuclear war against the US, and very likely their nuclear modernization is due to a concern that the US could win a nuclear war against them. We are many, many decades away from China being able to even contemplate that.
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Dec 10, 2022 22:06
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tractor fanatic posted:The PRC is in no position to win a nuclear war against the US, and very likely their nuclear modernization is due to a concern that the US could win a nuclear war against them. We are many, many decades away from China being able to even contemplate that. I feel like we're decadent and diminished to where a few warheads over major cities would cause the US to self-destruct, whereas we don't have enough to systematically physically break down the Chinese industrial machine and reduce the population. Look at the melty over 9/11, it perma hosed our whole society.
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Dec 10, 2022 22:26
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It's not 1960 anymore, Chinese society is just as fragile. Landing a nuke on Beijing or Shanghai would be as devastating as nukes on LA or NYC
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Dec 10, 2022 22:28
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I dunno that handwaving about hypothetical nuclear war between the US and China is a very productive line of discussion, particularly without any sourcing to back up the vague claims.
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Dec 10, 2022 22:39
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In a nuclear war everyone loses, there is no winning
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Dec 10, 2022 22:54
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Kamrat posted:In a nuclear war everyone loses, there is no winning I’m not saying we wouldn’t get our hair mussed!
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Dec 10, 2022 23:16
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slurm posted:I feel like we're decadent and diminished to where a few warheads over major cities would cause the US to self-destruct, whereas we don't have enough to systematically physically break down the Chinese industrial machine and reduce the population. Look at the melty over 9/11, it perma hosed our whole society. Ah yes 9/11, the event that famously cowed and pacified the US population. A nuclear war and the destruction of major American cities would be society shattering, but enough to deter a counterstrike? The population would be screaming for blood. America has ~6000 nukes, unless China has a secret Star Wars program that's enough to turbofuck any nation's economy/population. In short: Kamrat posted:In a nuclear war everyone loses, there is no winning
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Dec 10, 2022 23:21
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slurm posted:I feel like we're decadent and diminished to where a few warheads over major cities would cause the US to self-destruct, whereas we don't have enough to systematically physically break down the Chinese industrial machine and reduce the population. Look at the melty over 9/11, it perma hosed our whole society. Even if "a few warheads over major cities" was enough to cause the complete collapse of the United States, I struggle to come up with any scenario where anybody fires off "a few warheads over major cities" and DOESN'T get the full force of the US nuclear arsenal in response, even before the warheads land. "Decadence" is a bloody silly thing to worry about anyways, it's the stuff of moralists wringing their hands over poo poo They Personally Don't Like and historically has rarely had much real effect on events. Relevantly to China, traditional Chinese historiography loved to talk about how this or that dynasty collapsed because of their moral decadence, now let's completely ignore the economic effects of famine, changing strategic situation, internal distributions of power, altered global economic flows for this or that reason, etc., no, it's all because the people of today are soft and weak unlike the strong upright manly men of the past.
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Dec 10, 2022 23:33
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slurm posted:Is China preparing to simply win a nuclear war? The US and USSR had relatively small, concentrated populations and extremely limited heavy industry compared to modern China, and their nuclear stockpiles were into the 50k/each range just as a deterrent. Would the smaller modern US stockpile even scratch a target like China that's an order of magnitude larger and more industrialized? China's population is extremely concentrated. 60% of them live on the coast.
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Dec 11, 2022 01:38
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 edit: to be more direct, please drop the nuclear war derail.
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Dec 11, 2022 01:40
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KillHour posted:"This is a fully functional piece of future technology except one thing has been changed" does not render it nearly as useless as you claim. More realistically, you would want to completely wipe any propriety code (including firmware) and destroy any physical hardware that China could not easily recreate (mirrors, ICs, laser assemblies). Even still, there would certainly be valuable information to help accelerate a domestic program. Agreed, I was being glib.
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Dec 11, 2022 09:18
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-props-up-belt-and-road-borrowers-via-unusual-channel-11670727153 Good article outlining how China's involvement in sovereign debt and using the CNY to transfer risk from BRI governments to the PRC. It will be interesting to see how countries like Argentina shore up foreign exchanges with offshore Yuan when much of it is still a closed currency. Russia had this issue from international sanctions and trying to draw on Chinese money, I believe.
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Dec 12, 2022 07:19
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i fly airplanes posted:https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-props-up-belt-and-road-borrowers-via-unusual-channel-11670727153 Pakistan is an interesting case that is testing Beijing's patience (much as it previously tested its previous patron's patience to the hilt, ahem. During the GWOT years, Pakistan was the second-largest recipient of US aid, after Israel) It is undeniably critical to China's geopolitical goals as India moves into the Quad and it gives China a route to the Gulf that bypasses the Seventh Fleet Nonetheless:
Swapping out Khan for Beijing's preferred partner Sharif has not altered this trajectory China needs to keep the aid taps running just to tread water - more security aid (on Islamabad's terms), more cash shovelled into a bottomless pit, just to keep Pakistan at least notionally in favour of CPEC and of anti-terrorism cooperation ronya fucked around with this message at 08:36 on Dec 12, 2022 |
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Dec 12, 2022 08:31
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SCO honeymoon didn't last long: https://twitter.com/the_hindu/status/1602309415289356292 https://twitter.com/neeraj_rajput/status/1602312357853941761 ronya fucked around with this message at 15:45 on Dec 12, 2022 |
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Dec 12, 2022 15:42
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Seeing early reports of a possible large surge in Covid in Beijing and just stuck hoping that the people of China avoid what I fear is coming, with the removal of zero covid restrictions. Somehow :/ Vvvvv crap 
Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 19:52 on Dec 12, 2022 |
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Dec 12, 2022 18:25
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More claims, pinch of salt: https://twitter.com/sneheshphilip/status/1602332833955315718 Rust Martialis posted:Seeing early reports of a possible large surge in Covid in Beijing and just stuck hoping that the people of China avoid what I fear is coming, with the removal of zero covid restrictions. Beijing seems committed on this path so the case wave and hospital capacity breakdown is inevitable Why is slightly baffling to me but I think it's a foreseeable outcome at this point https://twitter.com/dawn_wei_tan/status/1602264857511723008 ronya fucked around with this message at 18:35 on Dec 12, 2022 |
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Dec 12, 2022 18:31
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Thank loving god Restrictions on cross-boundary deliveries are eased https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1679368-20221211.htm 2 years ago, HK freight drivers were not allowed to get out of their cars once they cross the border. They had to pee in bottles and their doors were sealed with tape. There were also longer queues and PCR tests. A typical 2.5 hour one way trip would now take 4 hours. The cost for a 12 ton truck was around 3,500 HKD not including fees. The cross border freight industry was hemorrhaging drivers because the restrictions were too hostile. Since February after the 5th wave (delta) cargo had to go through some intermediary point with limited trucks. The cost went all the way up to 16,000 HKD. Logistics costs were so insane that goods were sometimes shipped from Shenzhen to HK through sea freight
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Dec 13, 2022 03:21
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ronya posted:More claims, pinch of salt: the 'why' being that they foresaw it getting out of control very shortly increasingly looks like the best explanation. And if it wasn't going to break down now, new years travel probably would have done it anyways.
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Dec 13, 2022 04:24
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Hong Kong just dropped basically all covid restrictions. No more 0+3
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Dec 13, 2022 05:11
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Herstory Begins Now posted:the 'why' being that they foresaw it getting out of control very shortly increasingly looks like the best explanation. And if it wasn't going to break down now, new years travel probably would have done it anyways. I see this explanation bandied about, including on Chinese social media, but it doesn't quite explain the shift in the span of one week from micro-lockdown by building floor to de facto abandonment by not identifying contacts at all, not even though app-driven physical proximity close contact identification (which avoids the cost of PCR tests) - is the foresight as short as one week It also doesn't rationalize lifting curve-flattening measures like capacity limits on indoor venues at city level It's moved from a bet on micro-lockdowns to a bet that either the curve can't be changed or that it doesn't matter...
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Dec 13, 2022 06:19
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ronya posted:I see this explanation bandied about, including on Chinese social media, but it doesn't quite explain the shift in the span of one week from micro-lockdown by building floor to de facto abandonment by not identifying contacts at all, not even though app-driven physical proximity close contact identification (which avoids the cost of PCR tests) - is the foresight as short as one week I certainly agree that it isn't a perfect answer and I am as much scratching my head at the extent of the shift in policy as anyone. I'm curious if this was seen as a useful offramp to externalize responsibility from the eventual covid wave that China has been facing since before even the protests. The dynamic zero system was hanging on by a thread even before the protests, did anyone think it was going to hang on throughout the new years travel? This lets the policy end without having failed. Plus this wave can again be pointed to as responsible for the late january/early february wave
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Dec 13, 2022 06:31
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It's a strange logic, but it sort of makes sense, I guess. https://twitter.com/TGTM_Official/status/1602468346213138437?t=TGSow50-ehxlKZtawlv6Ow&s=19  Which leads to old school Soviet era jokes: https://twitter.com/TGTM_Official/status/1601169797311385600?t=YXNaOYk4B6lYyVPIsaEkiQ&s=19 url fucked around with this message at 07:18 on Dec 13, 2022 |
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Dec 13, 2022 07:16
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i fly airplanes posted:Hong Kong just dropped basically all covid restrictions. No more 0+3 Holy poo poo wow. 0+ 3 amber code also meant I had to do PCR every 2 days for a week. We are at over 18k cases a day and the government announced dropping amber code instead of 5k cases a day ?? What a load of loving bullshit
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Dec 13, 2022 07:17
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But...but antibodies don't... (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Dec 13, 2022 07:20
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HK’s health code for track and trace also digitally ties your vaccine certificates. For major restaurants and traveling, the incentives to be vaccinated were quite strong. But we still suffered a 4th and 5th wave of delta and omicron. You can argue delta never really left because our daily cases was still hovering 1k. Whereas the PRC track and trace doesn’t take account of vaccination. Track and trace does have its use but not when the whole community is infected and daily cases over 10k
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Dec 13, 2022 07:20
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Was wondering if there are any suggested books about the early push for communism in China, specifically where did it gain traction (universities, foreign influence etc), what people thought about it before the ccp took control, were there other competing influences (outside of the nationalist I guess) and was it around during the revolution against the Qing Dynasty or did it all develop after then.
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Dec 13, 2022 15:26
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imnotinsane posted:Was wondering if there are any suggested books about the early push for communism in China, specifically where did it gain traction (universities, foreign influence etc), what people thought about it before the ccp took control, were there other competing influences (outside of the nationalist I guess) and was it around during the revolution against the Qing Dynasty or did it all develop after then. If you're ok with podcasts, the People's History of Ideas is a good one. Granted, it is an Orthodox maoist perspective so you're going to get a lot of specific study on Mao and also "modern capitalists running China have betrayed communism" throughout. That said, it does a good job covering the movent and the history behind it as a whole. To answer your question specifically: 1. Like most ideological movements, key party figures arose from academia both domestically and abroad. Mao was a Chinese student, and others were Chinese students studying in Japan. It then began to incubate within the nationalist movement where it spread by founding unions and propaganda and all the normal stuff. Specifically, it spread like wildfire among the peasants and workers due to popularity of land reform and hatred for colonizers and feudal lords. 2. Communism as a historical force was new at the time, the Bolsheviks having successfully overthrown the czar in 1917. There were Marxists within china before the CCP and many of them actually opposed both the CCP and the Bolsheviks because of their dogmatic belief in the need of a bourgeois revolution before a popular revolution. Many Marxists before Lenin hit the stage believed that capitalism was a necessary phase of development that must be achieved before socialism can blossom, and therefore the idea that you just seize and state and build communism without capitalists was thought by many to be heresy. 3. Considering that the Qing dynasty didn't last last past 1916, the communists had little to do with the collapse/overthrow. 4. Other influences? Whoa boy. One of the keys to understanding the Chinese revolution is that colonial powers had so severely undermined the stability of the monarchy that it basically fell apart. The French, English, Japanese, even German empires all had taken big ol chunks of the country by force. Places like Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Taiwan were all under foreign control while the Qing were still "sovereign" and well into the warlord era that followed its collapse. Many of the revolutionary battles were fought against English and French soldiers, and many of the factories that the CCP unionized were owned and operated by the Japanese. As a result, the nationalists and communists had a lot of common ground and this very real red-brown alliance supported by the soviets worked together to decolonize China until the browns purges the reds and then lost. This also explains why China is so nervous of foreign interference today. They suffered through what they called the "century of humiliation" under the thumb of western and Japanese empires. Hope I answered all your questions.
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Dec 15, 2022 21:59
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A good introduction would be this video series by Extra History on Sun Yat-Sen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01vuhp5WgXM
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Dec 15, 2022 22:42
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Thanks for the replies, I’ll have to check out the podcast and videos mentioned
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Dec 16, 2022 05:11
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I would pick books on the May Fourth Movement as a starting point (noting that Marxist and CCP narratives tend to place much more importance on it as a epochal event than historians generally do today, who instead emphasize continuities with previous trends). In the early 1920s it was not inevitable that the KMT would win (much less the CCP). The internationally recognized government in Beiyang split into two warlord camps - the Fengtian camp of Zhang Zuolin, backed by Japan, and the Zhili camp of Wu Peifu, backed by the US and UK. The Beiyang government's influence did not extend far south, where the new Soviets backed Sun Yat-Sen's KMT Guangzhou camp. Every warlord faction and every intellectual movement sought for fashionable ideological bases for their power - 'Everything important had an international dimension... the most striking of all in this period was the self-conscious attempt to overhaul Chinese culture, particularly political culture, according to international categories. Every government would seek legitimacy in the context of one or another internationally authenticated "ism", from constitutionalism to communism.' (WC Kirby, in The Internationalization of China: Foreign Relations at Home and Abroad in the Republican Era). China idealised as a one-party-state 黨國 organized on Bolshevik Leninist lines where one national party should dominate civil society grows out of Sun's KMT period (the CCP as a bit player was not taken especially seriously here at this point, not even by Moscow; Wang Jingwei's "left KMT" was more salient than the CCP, which lacked a power base in the cities which mattered), although there were certainly constitutionalist, anarchist, federalist, theocratic, traditionalist, secessionist, etc. contenders. My glib hot take is that intellectuals and idea movements at the time perhaps focused too much on the threat of colonialism. By grim historic coincidence, the Great War had broken Europe's will to fight anyway; Beiyang did not have to negotiate very hard to not only largely retain Qing's borders but also reverse a number of thorny concessions, including the Shandong question (the German concessions acquired by Japan). The central question that dominated 1930s Chinese politics - whether to back Japan against the "white powers" of the British (India), US, and Soviets, or to back the Soviets against Japan - both tacitly assumed that China's weakness to colonialism was either way so severe that some form of deeply unpalatable concession was necessary. In actuality, despite devastating Chinese weakness and chaos across the resumption of the civil war, end of the civil war, Cultural Revolution, etc., sweeping territorial challenges as such have not been its main national experience. Of course, a national narrative with overweening attention on the last war is hardly unique; we can't choose our obsessions in this regard. For competing ideas as such, there's Negotiating A Chinese Federation: The Exchange of Ideas and Political Collaborations between China's Men of Guns and Men of Letters, 1919-1923 recently out, perhaps. ronya fucked around with this message at 18:47 on Dec 16, 2022 |
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Dec 16, 2022 16:48
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Ronya, I'm having difficulty parsing your reply. Are either of these statements meant to be sarcastic?ronya posted:I would pick books on the May Fourth Movement as a starting point (noting that Marxist and CCP narratives tend to place much more importance on it as a epochal event than historians generally do today, who instead emphasize continuities with previous trends). ronya posted:My glib hot take is that intellectuals and idea movements at the time perhaps focused too much on the threat of colonialism. By grim historic coincidence, the Great War had broken Europe's will to fight anyway; Because you seem to claim that additional context is needed and then immediately dismiss the greatest war in human history (up till that point) as "coincidence". IMO the fact that both major communist powers arose from the shadow of world war 1 is no coincidence. The weakening of major colonial powers such as Britain and France were just as important to the Chinese revolution as the destabilization of Russia was to the Russian revolution.
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Dec 16, 2022 22:09
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