|
BIG HEADLINE posted:Maybe some of us see an increasingly-possible scenario in the US currently playing itself out in Ukraine since 2014. By analogy, this ends with Weird Al Yankovic winning 70% of the vote with his Polka Party.
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 08:07
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 5, 2024 22:47 |
|
|
 Any news about the actual... war?
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 08:14
|
|
|
Quackles posted:
mud is mud, offensives have mostly stalled. Winter is a lovely season to fight in. orange juche fucked around with this message at 08:57 on Dec 14, 2022 |
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 08:52
|
|
|
Rust Martialis posted:Hello, Americans. You're doing USPOL in other country threads again. Also, because it didn't occur to me until just now: "You can't fight in here! This is the war thread!"
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 08:57
|
|
|
Quackles posted:
I posted some on the last page regarding the US sending Patriot missiles to Ukraine, but apparently everyone wanted to bitch about Twitter and Musk despite having an entire thread dedicated to it. BIG HEADLINE posted:Sure, why not. That sounds more entertaining than Anarchist Cookbook wet dreams made reality. So in this analogy, the J6 crew are the Euromaidan protesters? Because otherwise I'm struggling to see any similarity.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 08:59
|
|
|
Quackles posted:Also, because it didn't occur to me until just now: It's not USPOL, it's sparkling GOP.  ------------------ Assuming it's going to start freezing at the northern end of the combat line i wonder if Ukraine will do some serious probing between Svatove and Troits'ke, or is it just too heavily wooded?
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 09:07
|
|
|
Quackles posted:
more of those iranian drones hitting kyiv
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 09:07
|
|
|
Tunicate posted:more of those iranian drones hitting kyiv Zelenskiy said they intercepted them all this morning. https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/4402
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 11:25
|
|
|
How long do you guys think this war lasts?
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 13:07
|
|
|
GD_American posted:How long do you guys think this war lasts? Barring a military collapse in Ukraine or a political one in Russia? Years. Even if western support dries up, Ukraine will continue to fight for a very long time and will probably engage in an indefinite insurgency in the event of an occupation.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 13:13
|
|
|
GD_American posted:How long do you guys think this war lasts? I don't think Russia will ever stop loving with Ukraine, but I'd suspect a major turning point in Russia's determination to continue with large-scale conventional operations will be when Ukraine gets long range air defenses in place and starts shooting down bombers inside Russia and Belarus. e: So probably by next summer? e2: I think domestic support will collapse entirely if Putin starts deliberately sending the 18 year old conscripts to the front lines psydude fucked around with this message at 13:19 on Dec 14, 2022 |
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 13:14
|
|
|
GD_American posted:How long do you guys think this war lasts? I was guessing a three year duration when it all kicked off, but then not even Putin knows the answer to that one... he said three days.     
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 13:17
|
|
|
I'd use the defense procurement authorizations as a baseline for how long the government analysts thing it's going to last.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 13:18
|
|
|
psydude posted:So in this analogy, the J6 crew are the Euromaidan protesters? Because otherwise I'm struggling to see any similarity. Not even remotely close to what I was getting at. I'm more worried about the US having its own Troubles, with the Qidiots and "militias" becoming more of a persistent threat, and most of them think of "libtards" as "fascists."
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 14:10
|
|
|
GD_American posted:How long do you guys think this war lasts? If it’s still a “war” to have basically stagnant borders with Russia on some Ukrainian land but not achieving regime change, and each side lobbing arty once in a while, I dunno, maybe a decade?
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 14:20
|
|
|
BIG HEADLINE posted:Not even remotely close to what I was getting at. I'm more worried about the US having its own Troubles, with the Qidiots and "militias" becoming more of a persistent threat, and most of them think of "libtards" as "fascists." Ok, but how is that similar to a more powerful neighbor sending in special forces and PMCs, annexing an entire state, and establishing a puppet regime in two others while simultaneously providing heavy arms to help them fight the regular military? Like the US has issues with right wing terrorism and a malfunctioning political system, but that's completely different from what Ukraine has faced and is facing. Trying to equate the two just doesn't work.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 14:48
|
|
|
Is Ukraine possibly getting Patriot due to them running out of S-300? If so is it really an escalation and not just a way to keep status quo regarding Ukrainian capabilities and yet another step where the west reacts instead of being pro-active? Since the Patriot system is labeled as taking lots of time to master with a serious logistic tail will the possible transfer have any impact on delivering other things regarded as hard to master with logistic issues like western tanks?
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 15:22
|
|
|
Kallikaa posted:Is Ukraine possibly getting Patriot due to them running out of S-300? If so is it really an escalation and not just a way to keep status quo regarding Ukrainian capabilities and yet another step where the west reacts instead of being pro-active? I'd wager the answer to your second question is yes. But in terms of scale, there's a major difference between handling the logistical support for a patriot battery and an entire armor brigade.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 15:44
|
|
|
mlmp08 posted:If it’s still a “war” to have basically stagnant borders with Russia on some Ukrainian land but not achieving regime change, and each side lobbing arty once in a while, I dunno, maybe a decade? The question I hit is, ok Ukraine takes back every square inch. That doesn’t equal peace. Does it stop at border raids and artillery duels? Or a Korea-style DMZ? I imagine that US support evaporates for any Ukrainian unit that attacks into Russian territory.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 15:51
|
|
|
GD_American posted:The question I hit is, ok Ukraine takes back every square inch. That doesn’t equal peace. Does it stop at border raids and artillery duels? Or a Korea-style DMZ? I imagine that US support evaporates for any Ukrainian unit that attacks into Russian territory. I don't think this is the case, and support didn't waver after Ukraine openly hit a Russian airfield. The reality is most American's realize war means war not limited to inside your own border.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 16:19
|
|
|
psydude posted:I don't think Russia will ever stop loving with Ukraine, but I'd suspect a major turning point in Russia's determination to continue with large-scale conventional operations will be when Ukraine gets long range air defenses in place and starts shooting down bombers inside Russia and Belarus. Don't the cruise missiles vastly outrange even the longest range of SAMs? Like Patriot and S-300 are 1-200km tops, one of those cruise missiles they were slinging were like 10x that. Someone said that the bombers basically just take off, circle the airfield while climbing, and then pop off the missiles. Don't think one of those is ever going down to a SAM.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 16:28
|
|
|
Cruise SAM 
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 16:57
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:I don't think this is the case, and support didn't waver after Ukraine openly hit a Russian airfield. The reality is most American's realize war means war not limited to inside your own border. I see a lot of cognitive dissonance when it comes to air vs ground ops in the citizenry. See the power of the empty phrase “boots on the ground”
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 17:27
|
|
|
Kallikaa posted:Is Ukraine possibly getting Patriot due to them running out of S-300? If so is it really an escalation and not just a way to keep status quo regarding Ukrainian capabilities and yet another step where the west reacts instead of being pro-active? I don't see how improving Ukrainian air defenses is an escalation, and considering how every little thing supplied to the Ukrainians reflects in Russia propaganda as "an escalation", we're not really dealing with a nation who is going to react in anything less an emotional way. Don't want your neighbors to get gear from the West? Don't invade your neighbors so poorly that they have time to start getting it in mass.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 17:27
|
|
|
A Festivus Miracle posted:I don't see how improving Ukrainian air defenses is an escalation, and considering how every little thing supplied to the Ukrainians reflects in Russia propaganda as "an escalation", we're not really dealing with a nation who is going to react in anything less an emotional way. True I shouldn't have used escalation, upgrade would've been better. What I was badly trying to get at is that USA+EU only have sent send top of the line stuff when absolutely necessary. Like with better SAM after the Russians severely damage Ukrainian infrastructure. I would've liked to see that happen as soon as Kyiv didn't fall. Kallikaa fucked around with this message at 17:44 on Dec 14, 2022 |
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 17:34
|
|
|
I suspect that hitting military targets in Russian territory is fine even if it means using ground units, but actually trying to take Russian dirt is not.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 17:37
|
|
|
A Festivus Miracle posted:I don't see how improving Ukrainian air defenses is an escalation, and considering how every little thing supplied to the Ukrainians reflects in Russia propaganda as "an escalation", we're not really dealing with a nation who is going to react in anything less an emotional way. It's a moderate escalation because it's wedging open the door to providing Ukraine with more and more of the gucchi top end kit while being defensive in nature.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 17:54
|
|
|
my kinda ape posted:Cruise SAM Bomarcs for Ukraine, you heard it here first.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 18:08
|
|
|
Saying uncomplimentary things about Putin is escalatory. Give Ukraine what they need to win.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 18:14
|
|
|
Alchenar posted:It's a moderate escalation because it's wedging open the door to providing Ukraine with more and more of the gucchi top end kit while being defensive in nature. It's not an escalation because Ukraine is not choosing to be invaded. 100% of the power to stop the war and thus stop any escalations rest in the hands of russia. Putin could call it off right now and pull everyone out of Ukraine and the conflict stops. Resisting aggression is not an escalation.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 18:32
|
|
|
Kallikaa posted:Is Ukraine possibly getting Patriot due to them running out of S-300? If so is it really an escalation and not just a way to keep status quo regarding Ukrainian capabilities and yet another step where the west reacts instead of being pro-active? Patriot can shoot down planes but its not really optimized for it. It's built to shoot down ballistic missiles. If it's a specific reaction to anything I would say it's a reaction to Iran suppling replacement MRBMs to Russia. It's virtually certain that there will be 'advisors' helping to run the battery.... though I wouldn't be surprised if there's been Ukrainian crews training on it for months, that's probably not long enough to do the job.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 18:37
|
|
|
TheDeadlyShoe posted:Patriot can shoot down planes but its not really optimized for it. This is entirely false. Patriot was explicitly designed to shoot fixed-wing aircraft. Later upgrades added on better cruise missile and low/slow capability and added the ballistic missile capability. quote:It's built to shoot down ballistic missiles. If it's a specific reaction to anything I would say it's a reaction to Iran suppling replacement MRBMs to Russia. It is a pretty capable point defense for ballistic missiles. There has been zero reporting in the press or elsewhere of Iran supplying MRBMs to Russia. The rumors are of SRBMs. (Rumor is deal in works, not delivery complete or set in stone) quote:It's virtually certain that there will be 'advisors' helping to run the battery.... That explicitly would violate the President’s mandate. quote:though I wouldn't be surprised if there's been Ukrainian crews training on it for months, that's probably not long enough to do the job. I would be exceptionally surprised. Cause to do that, they’d have had to have stolen a system to train on or something. mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 19:02 on Dec 14, 2022 |
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 18:59
|
|
|
A.o.D. posted:I suspect that hitting military targets in Russian territory is fine even if it means using ground units, but actually trying to take Russian dirt is not. The stumbling point for Ukraine will come when they run into territory like Crimea that Russia has had enough time to fully genocide-- deported the locals to kamchatka and replaced with Russians etc. I kinda expect this to eventually turn into a nk/sk type militarized border with a cease fire but no official end to the war.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 18:59
|
|
|
mlmp08 posted:I would be exceptionally surprised. Cause to do that, they’d have had to have stolen a system to train on or something. Flying a few dozen people to Nevada is not difficult.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 19:47
|
|
|
Hieronymous Alloy posted:I kinda expect this to eventually turn into a nk/sk type militarized border with a cease fire but no official end to the war. The Korean situation exists mostly because China keeps propping up its buffer state. Russia is not Korea. If anything, it's a gigantic mid 90s Serbia or early 80s Argentina.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 19:54
|
|
|
mlmp08 posted:I would be exceptionally surprised. Cause to do that, they’d have had to have stolen a system to train on or something. Considering the amount of little green men (probably) running around Ft Sill, what's a couple extra? Also Patriot crews are filled with some of the most knuckle-dragging degenerate ASVAB waivers in the Army, so I'd be shocked if it took the Ukrainian crews long to get up to speed.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 19:56
|
|
|
Russia's opening move was an attempt to sack Kyiv so I'm not really sure I understand the suggestion that Ukraine shouldn't pursue targets within Russia. Russia already set that bar for escalation on Day 1.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 20:01
|
|
|
Diarrhea Elemental posted:Considering the amount of little green men (probably) running around Ft Sill, what's a couple extra? Also Patriot crews are filled with some of the most knuckle-dragging degenerate ASVAB waivers in the Army, Aside from being objectively incorrect about GT score requirements to man Patriot control stations, I am suggesting pretty bluntly that forums poster like to imagine that there are all these mega-secret training program for weapons systems, and it has not been true. This has spanned from theories about F-16 secret training to ATACMS to NASAMS to HIMARS in the past. In all of those cases, it either turned out to be complete bullshit or the US announced and then afterward executed training and fielding weeks or months later (as was the case with HIMARS, NASAMS, Sentinel, Avenger, M777, Switchblade, wreckers, etc). The major exception was that the US was very oblique about HARMs. The US publicly announced “counter-radar” capability before they were employed, but didn’t say it was HARMs specifically until after the first strikes.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 20:04
|
|
|
mlmp08 posted:Aside from being objectively incorrect about GT score requirements to man Patriot control stations, I was with 35th ADA in Korea for a year, trust me when I say despite whatever might be on paper, the Patriot crews are near uniformly loving morons. They'd pick the outliers to sit in the vans with the "pointy end" systems, warrants were untouchable savants, intel and comms dudes on the spectrum as per usual, but the bulk of the actual manpower was breathtakingly underwhelming. Edit: My next frame of reference being engineers, so... yeah.
|
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 20:12
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 5, 2024 22:47 |
|
|
I’m glad I never did Korea, cause while the country seems very cool, so many stories out of there is that everyone is just biding their time to escape so it’s the next person’s problem. Or enjoying levels of lawlessness permitted by such an environment. My low bar for dealing with people was 82d infantry guys. On a mission that required using computers and comms well, knowing how aircraft work, and not being complacent and dumb, all of which they absolutely refused to do. E: 82d was replaced by National Guard Field Artillery, who were a godsend by comparison. mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 20:29 on Dec 14, 2022 |
|
#
?
Dec 14, 2022 20:23
|
|