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mcmagic posted:That is more true for QBs who run the ball on designed plays. I still think smaller QBs even like Wilson and Mayfield have trouble seeing over the line and get more passes knocked down that your league avg QB. Staring at a sideline here is the actual cause. No one is calling Burrow small, but he gets quite a few balls thrown at the sticks get batted at the line. Short guys do seem to have a tendency to be sideline throwers for the obvious reason you mentioned of it being a cleaner line, but it’s easy to cheat because everyone in the world knows you can leave the middle open against like Baker or Wilson since it shows up as a tendency. I do think part of it is coaching too considering 4 inches really shouldn’t be the difference between calling Mesh or not. Like, Kliff and Kyler have figured this out a bit guys, why not you.
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Dec 14, 2022 18:05
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TheGreyGhost posted:Tier 1 of the QB prospects effort post. I will probably adjust my reads of these guys over time, but this is my usual starting point for when I start looking at prospect comparisons. A reminder—calling someone Josh Allen as a prospect <> Josh Allen now. Very good post. You're 100% right about Levis I don't know why he can't recognize a blitz. I think Young's arm strength is fine and his feel for the game is pretty amazing.
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Dec 14, 2022 18:10
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Relentlessboredomm posted:it blows my mind that anyone is genuinely considering richardson as anything other than a TE conversion or the new Taysom Hill. He's had multiple good offensive coaches, years to learn the basics and he's the worst throwing QB in the SEC somehow. if he was from some no name school, never had much coaching and only played a year then maybe take a flier in the 2nd but the dude's had a lot of time and chances to improve and he's shown jack poo poo. it would be the most miraculous development job of all time to turn him into a solid NFL qb This is basically my fear. Part of why I think Allen got so much better is because he just didn’t have the coaching and development guys usually get these days before the league. No elite 11 or private QB coach, no NCAA program that got him big viability with big reps, no high school or JuCo exposure that blew him up or gave meaningful competition. The first time someone actually worked on mechanics or more complicated reads in a meaningful way that was on par with his tools was the league. He was untapped in the sense that he literally hadn’t been taught this poo poo. Mahomes just had to be retaught pocket work that TTU beat out of him to fix his feet a bit while also building an offense that could allow him to maximize the throes no one else can make. Herbert had to be put in an offense that could just allow him to go off feel and vision and not predetermined reads that a receiver could run badly with no hot routes. Richardson played for a known QB guy, comes from the prep pipeline, and still just didn’t even try to fix things this year. His arm talent and movement is so absurd that you almost feel obligated to try. He couldn’t run Mullen’s offense from structure. He couldn’t pass for touchdowns consistently. There’s so many red flags, but the raw ability is so enticing that he’s going in the first 2 rounds for sure, and I at least can’t say that’s explicitly wrong with how the teams value things now (though I sure like the other 3 guys all more) Yeah if nothing works he’s a conversion project like Pryor, but holy poo poo if you get the impression from interviews and your coaches you can develop him I get it. I don’t want to take the ride myself, but I understand people trying to follow the trend.
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Dec 14, 2022 18:16
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Doltos posted:Very good post. You're 100% right about Levis I don't know why he can't recognize a blitz. I think Young's arm strength is fine and his feel for the game is pretty amazing. My pet theory right now is that relying on short/narrow sets is making those keys harder to teach in favor of making coverage declaration more obvious, but it really is funny when the guy who we’ll hear endlessly was in a pro system cannot do the things the pro system is supposed to make you good at. I really can’t wait for Bryce’s pro day. I usually don’t give a poo poo about programmed, un-rushed throws, but I want to see him rip some balls to confirm what his 2021 tape had. Part of the concern was undoubtedly his shoulder not being 100% this year too but like, even if he tops out at Goff/Mayfield (which I think he probably has more than) that should be plenty of arm for him with as smooth as he reads and moves.
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Dec 14, 2022 18:20
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TheGreyGhost posted:This is basically my fear. Part of why I think Allen got so much better is because he just didn’t have the coaching and development guys usually get these days before the league. No elite 11 or private QB coach, no NCAA program that got him big viability with big reps, no high school or JuCo exposure that blew him up or gave meaningful competition. The first time someone actually worked on mechanics or more complicated reads in a meaningful way that was on par with his tools was the league. He was untapped in the sense that he literally hadn’t been taught this poo poo. Mahomes just had to be retaught pocket work that TTU beat out of him to fix his feet a bit while also building an offense that could allow him to maximize the throes no one else can make. Herbert had to be put in an offense that could just allow him to go off feel and vision and not predetermined reads that a receiver could run badly with no hot routes. i welcome some team that is not mine or one i care about to give it a shot but god do i not want teams i like to put meaningful draft capital into richardson. honestly assuming the bucs even had their pick i have no idea who i'd take. Levis maybe? ugh. Bryce Young is the best but god he's going to get murdered in the nfl. he already takes brutal hits in college
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Dec 14, 2022 18:28
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Anthony Richardson cant throw a football with any semblence of touch, technique or accuracy, but don't worry because he also refuses to run with the ball!
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Dec 14, 2022 18:45
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Height matters at a certain point. Kyler still can't hit a crossing route across the middle of the field.
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Dec 14, 2022 19:02
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Alaois posted:Anthony Richardson cant throw a football with any semblence of touch, technique or accuracy, but don't worry because he also refuses to run with the ball! Hey now. He throws the hell out of that bullet pass that usually gets dropped in Madden! The running hesitancy doesn’t bug me all that much. Mullen’s rage at going out of structure probably affected his willingness, and then his RPO processing under Napier could be spoofed by a decent DC call once you knew what he was reading which made him look worse at times. He still breaks quite a few runs, but it’s really really not shocking to me that a guy who shits his pants about a rotation to cover 3 or cover 2 invert also has extremely bad feel in the RPO game at times.
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Dec 14, 2022 19:14
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Let’s talk about some guys who are definitely not going 1st round. Hendon Hooker - Tennessee I generally get annoyed at the “system QB” rap because it doesn’t frequently reflect reality or what guys show they can do in that system. Think how many Leach guys showed enough to be journeymen or what Mahomes did in the raid—there’s never been more parity between college offenses and the NFL than right now. That said, we need to discuss the Briles system. Alex Golesh looked at the receivers he and Heupel had and realized pretty much immediately that Veer and Shoot with 4 verts, Y cross, and All Curls was going to work for most of their games—just gotta find a QB. And they did! His name was Joe Milton, and his initial starting period was one of the funniest games I’ve ever watched. Dude was missing vertical balls by 20 yards and doing his best Grossman impression in the process. Then they got serious and realized they needed a guy who could actually complete passes. Enter Hendon Hooker. A very athletic quarterback who is quite literally the same age as Lamar Jackson. What Hooker lacked in raw air yards (he still has NFL caliber air and above average velocity when he steps in) compared to Milton, he made up for in showing an ability to occasionally soften up a deep ball for a receiver going over the top. He was too big and fast to just mindlessly blitz and keep off of verts. So why isn’t he likely to work out? Because his ball placement is actually pretty bad. Watch him against any team with similar talent and he’s not throwing dudes open, he’s waiting for them to “win” a route and throwing to a spot. Means Georgia could pick him off on just looking at tape for his distances and waiting. His balls on a curl or post frequently sail high for no discernible reason beyond “read higher than the receiver turned” or “released high”. It’s a set of consistent errors, but a helpful way to think of it is as a quarterback throwing to receivers in a zone passing game rather than throwing explicitly to guys at all times. There’s basically no situation where he has more than 2 reads from guys who are lined up past the numbers, so it just doesn’t really train him to do much other than throw to spots. It’s a Mickey Mouse offense in a world where we accommodate that more than we used to. Mechanically he’s got very very good feet and sets well in or out of pocket, which makes his ability to miss high troubling. I think he just doesn’t feel the ball well in his hand or is bringing the ball up too much at launch because it’s the only consistent explanation for his misses. He’s also not really changing his arm angles much because the offense doesn’t really call for that, so you’re probably not seeing the off-platform work you may expect from him. He’s apparently a really nice guy, but getting me to bet on a 25 year old with his limitations is a lot. Could see him having a Josh Dobbs type arc where he becomes an okay backup with time, but he’s actually a pretty healthy answer to what I would’ve expected from Stidtham if he had played at Baylor the whole way where he’s not going to run as easily or carelessly for the hits he’s going to take. 4th rounder at best to me at least, particularly with the injury. Jaren Hall - BYU Look another 25 year old rookie! Hall’s interesting because his game really reads like Great Value Bryce Young. First thing that pops up is he gets very explosive in the draw or zone read game—lots of instances where they could pull a designed run and do very well, especially since a zone block is an immediate tell on the BYU offense that the QB is running right now. They also definitely opened up some angles compared to Wilson in the offense where the rollout game got some burn as a way to extend play action and open some TE/SE routes in the flag game where a bigger receiver can get position downfield. He reads downfield well, but I don’t love the way he doesn’t always work back if theres 3+ DBs deep—recognizing short and intermediate space before hitting a check down or scrambling would go a long way to giving him vertical space. He got pressured more consistently than Wilson but dealt with it through the scramble game (designed or not) and pretty decent pocket movement. I don’t know how much of the pressure was his line versus bad protection calls, but he’s objectively shown more in that area than like Levi’s at least. So what do I hate? His arm is bizarre. He’s basically never been all the way healthy, but he flutters balls downfield or over the middle that he shouldn’t from what I see of him throwing outs or comebacks. My gut says this is a footwork thing, since giving him more than 5-7 steps on a play seems to kick him into a gear where he doesn’t try to set his feet and will just do it off of arm—lots of weird fadeaway there. He has really good arm adjustments, but he doesn’t have the raw arm to get away with some of these throws at the next level without getting his feet under him. It looks better when he stays in the pocket, but even then he doesn’t always follow through if he senses pressure. Sort of a classic mobile QB stereotype here but just get him focused on getting his front foot down or falling backwards and I think he can be good. Concern here is if he doesn’t clean some of those up, he could just be a more athletic Andy Dalton as a prospect with short velocity but not downfield which is fine but difficult to win with in a league that’s embraced the vertical stretch. I like him as a bit of a riff on Tyrod as a prospect. Decent physical tools that should make him reasonably competent run out of a highly professionalized offense but doesn’t always hit close windows as tightly as he should and doesn’t always give himself the best chance at letting him arm work. I’m actually fine with him on Day 2 and think he’s a better prospect than Hendon right now at least just given what he’s shown in his current offense. Cam Ward - Wazzu Air raid guy! To start, worst feet on an air raid guy in a while—worse than college Mahomes. He’s mobile and can do half roll/full roll poo poo to create stress and keep plays going when playing against more talented teams, but the man has clearly never been punished for freelancing. He doesn’t really throw from his legs—lots of arm and wrist for a guy without the utterly elite arm talent you more or less need to excuse a guy for this. Lots of submarine looping and sidearming or “beer pong” releases where there’s no need, so I would like to see him at a minimum reduce the windup if he’s going to be a guy who generates touch and angle from the wrist this much. When he does step in and release straight away, he has some good velocity that can make the sideline game work in the NFL. When he doesn’t, he’s going to look like early Cousins hanging balls. I think he’s around league average velocity and air when everything works, but that’s a minority of his throws right now and at times hard to determine given the level of DBs he typically faced. I think part of this mechanical inconsistency is that I cannot find much tape where his OL looks competent against pressure, and he was running like a Wing T within the last 4 years. To compensate, his last two years of tape had a good quick game with sticks and screens that created some incentive for rushers to slow down and prevent him from overstepping. That said, it’s not as much anticipation as I typically expect from this type of offense in favor of just extending plays or running. If you’re willing to take a project QB, I think I like him about as much as Hall given how much you could immediately work on his mechanics and improve them, but he’s probably going to be behind Hall if he comes out. Compare him to a midpoint between Malik Willis and Will Grier. Kinda hope he waits another year. Quick Hits Spencer Rattler - Went full gunslinger. Best raw arm in the class if he comes out. Makes shockingly bad decisions with inferior receivers and gives the ball up as a result. When Lincoln gives up on you, I notice. Tyler Van Dyke - This year’s “Mitch leidner” award for worst preseason 1st rounder on a bad sample size from a McShay intern. Sucks. Won’t get drafted even though he’s an okay deep ball guy. Stay in school. Tanner McKee - Older Davis Mills. All these Stanford guys are the same pocket QB with big arms and mediocre accuracy. Him running the WF slow mesh was hilarious. Malik Cunningham - Erratic, bad arm, run first guy with okay feel. No feet on his big throws. No anticipation which will drive an nfl guy nuts. Bo Nix - Debating watching his full tape this year because he’s the closest to moving into non-quick hit tier. His auburn tape is insanely bad and shows a guy with bad pocket feel running backwards in an offense that doesn’t fit him as a vertical thrower. Actually think he has an NFL arm on speed and air, but he just runs around mindlessly for no reason. Dillingham got some good play out of him this year on sideline work and letting him read LBs or safety breaks, minus Georgia where he had 2-3 insanely bad reads on a safety drop. Athletic enough to extend plays. I don’t hate him like I thought?
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Dec 14, 2022 20:18
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Jake Haener erasure
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Dec 14, 2022 20:21
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spencer rattler should go 1st overall based on strength of name alone
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Dec 14, 2022 20:26
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Updated GG posts in the OP to make these easier to find down the road.
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Dec 14, 2022 20:49
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a neat cape posted:Jake Haener erasure I like the 2-3 quarters of Fresno I’ve watched, but his peak is Andy Dalton and his floor is like Ken Dorsey. Hope he gets some checks at the next level because holy poo poo his injury report looks bad.
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Dec 14, 2022 20:49
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MrLogan posted:Height matters at a certain point. Kyler still can't hit a crossing route across the middle of the field. Kyler doesn’t do a lot of things he probably could do though.
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Dec 14, 2022 21:30
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he kyles as advertised
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Dec 15, 2022 02:00
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EmbryoSteve posted:If they dont the seahawks will with their 2nd 1st rounder. He has "I can fix him, he has all the tools" profile that the seahawks love. After what I've seen with Geno and Russ I would be absolutely over the moon if Richardson went to the Seahawks. I was down on Pete Carroll for a long time but seeing Russ pre/post Seahawks really made me believe in Pete.
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Dec 15, 2022 02:47
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MrLogan posted:Height matters at a certain point. Kyler still can't hit a crossing route across the middle of the field. I blame his parents.
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Dec 15, 2022 03:03
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TheGreyGhost, where would you rank Stroud’s arm strength compared to people like Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Watson, etc?
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Dec 15, 2022 07:51
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So many GMs are gonna get fired over the next decade trying to chase The Next Josh Allen
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Dec 15, 2022 12:52
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TheGreyGhost posted:Bo Nix - Debating watching his full tape this year because he’s the closest to moving into non-quick hit tier. His auburn tape is insanely bad and shows a guy with bad pocket feel running backwards in an offense that doesn’t fit him as a vertical thrower. Actually think he has an NFL arm on speed and air, but he just runs around mindlessly for no reason. Dillingham got some good play out of him this year on sideline work and letting him read LBs or safety breaks, minus Georgia where he had 2-3 insanely bad reads on a safety drop. Athletic enough to extend plays. I don’t hate him like I thought? I know gently caress all about quarterback play but it seemed like Bo did a better job of productively running around, both on designed roll out poo poo, and extending plays with his legs.
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Dec 15, 2022 17:33
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:I know gently caress all about quarterback play but it seemed like Bo did a better job of productively running around, both on designed roll out poo poo, and extending plays with his legs. I haven’t watched him in a charting/scouting sense much from this past season, but I think you’re more or less correct. I worry about him in a pocket when coverage is good still, but there’s no reason in my mind he couldn’t do the current Perkins/Baker/Garropollo type thing if it’s for real. Gonna add him to my queue after some other positions this year. Ornery and Hornery posted:TheGreyGhost, where would you rank Stroud’s arm strength compared to people like Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Watson, etc? Weird year for arm strength—no real baby arms in the class. If I’m estimating in order Peak velocity (when everything is perfect) Richardson = Herbert/Lock (seriously) Levis = Lawrence Stroud = Watson Young = Fields Peak air Levis = Lawrence Richardson = Lock Stroud = Rivers Young = Kyler To the editorialize a bit: - These are ideal conditions. Richardson habitually throws as hard as possible. Levis has a lot of throws on tape that look beneath this. Stroud’s ball flight is odd because it’s effective but looks flatter than it is even if he’s showing NFL arm talent. Young has a very live arm that you question his limits at the very edge but don’t worry about much within like 40 yards. - Richardson has a stupid amount of natural talent and looks like he could do essentially anything but is so limited by his reads and his touch that it’s hard to say just what his air throws can be. He rips like Herbert did out of Oregon right down to the missed balls, but it’s hard to estimate a throw he doesn’t do beyond throwing it hard. - Levis has an arm like Lawrence in every sense when his feet are clean. Trevor did a better job of using his feet and balance even if he has like 10% more windup than Levis does for the same results. Levis is almost never clean. Edit: To be clear, the raw arm is good and Lawrence like, I just don’t love the inconsistency with his speeds right now. He can throw hard and high or soft and wide if he just arms it which shows ability but not always understanding of how his speeds work. - Stroud’s mechanics are so weird because he throws hard like Watson short and changes release and ball path quite a bit for deeper balls that still get there faster than I would expect. - Please keep Bryce clean because his arm is special even if he doesn’t always finish throws. Follow through is more important the smaller you are, and I don’t want to hear people accusing him of a weak arm when the issue is just that he flutters balls deep off a scramble drill with unset feet TheGreyGhost fucked around with this message at 19:16 on Dec 15, 2022 |
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Dec 15, 2022 18:05
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Levis' throwing motion is absurdly consistent. He whips the ball at the top of the arc with his wrist and it produces somewhat decent accuracy for the strength behind it. I don't think he has to set his feet for it but after Mahomes I don't know how much footwork matters with that type of throwing.
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Dec 15, 2022 18:11
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CJ Stroud doesn’t have a J anywhere in his name. Fraud through and through.
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Dec 15, 2022 18:14
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Doltos posted:Levis' throwing motion is absurdly consistent. He whips the ball at the top of the arc with his wrist and it produces somewhat decent accuracy for the strength behind it. I don't think he has to set his feet for it but after Mahomes I don't know how much footwork matters with that type of throwing. Agreed that his upper body motion is consistent, I just don’t see a guy who is NFL accurate when he’s without his feet right now—can’t throw that many balls high or wide enough to be out of stride next level or you become Baker, look at the Florida tape if you’re curious what I mean . Maybe his receivers can make up for it a bit next level, but Mahomes was hitting those off platforms a looot closer than this as a prospect where the question was more if an offense would accommodate it. I do wonder if he’s like Bryce as well where the injuries might be making their margins look worse than they ordinarily would be. I’m generally harder on guys like Levis who don’t set the world on fire despite the tools which is my own bias.
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Dec 15, 2022 19:12
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Which of the QBs are going to be able to handle this type of poo poo though https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cl9s4hlpXB_/?igshid=NTdlMDg3MTY%3D
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Dec 15, 2022 19:23
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kiimo posted:Which of the QBs are going to be able to handle this type of poo poo though Hooker is max comedy here because he’s both insanely church-y and comes from an offensive system that would drive Gruden insane that he isn’t doing some type of 5 read rolling check that takes 10 seconds to call for a 3 yard gain. Like, the idea of throwing to spots and not doing 4 checks and reads as a 25 year old QB would break his mind. Least funny is Stroud who would probably correct the play call for an huge gain, get yelled at, and then go listen to Joy Division alone in his room after Gruden calls him a loser.
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Dec 15, 2022 19:29
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Stroud is my new favorite QB now even though if you just made this up. I imagine him having on the back of his helmet LOVE WILL TEAR US APART
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Dec 15, 2022 19:31
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kiimo posted:Stroud is my new favorite QB now even though if you just made this up. Stroud was my favorite qb but now that TheGreyGhost said he had a baby arm strength like Watson, STROUD no longer favorite qb! Watson famously threw the least mph ball in that draft class where they measured mph ball speed for some reason. Unacceptable.
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Dec 15, 2022 20:04
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That was the reason I predicted he'd be a bust. The true reason was impossible to foresee but arm strength was never a problem and it just doesn't make sense.
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Dec 15, 2022 20:28
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How can a ball go so slow, yet that same ball made so many deep throw completions??? Find out on this episode of ancient aliens
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Dec 15, 2022 21:04
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Ornery and Hornery posted:How can a ball go so slow, yet that same ball made so many deep throw completions??? The Tua Experience
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Dec 15, 2022 23:35
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kiimo posted:Stroud is my new favorite QB now even though if you just made this up. I don’t know how to put it other than there is a large contingent of the buckeye fan base who stares at him demeanor and sees a sad, goth kid, and I cannot really disagree with how he is man. Like, it’s stupid poo poo to project because you get people going like “JUSTIN HERBERT INTROVERT” but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a guy as talented as he is who looks less thrilled on a down to down basis. Ornery and Hornery posted:Stroud was my favorite qb but now that TheGreyGhost said he had a baby arm strength like Watson, STROUD no longer favorite qb! I would legitimately say Deshaun has about a league average/median arm at this point—looked worse at Clemson because the offense hinges on jump balls to big guys and his mechanics held him back a bit. He tightened his mechanics up a bit in the pros which helped on some hard breaks like curls or zone beaters. Much better weight transfer and not leaking power on a windup. Not usually a huge fan of Quincy Avery, but he legitimately did do some decent work on Deshaun’s loading phase. Ornery and Hornery posted:How can a ball go so slow, yet that same ball made so many deep throw completions??? I like that McDaniel realized that if he got Waddle and Hill he could just tell Tua to throw early and know those guys would blow a window open that his soft, lovely deep ball was less likely to turn into a pick. Truly the modern answer to “run the west coast offense” for when you get a guy who looks like poo poo at 30 yards.
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Dec 16, 2022 01:35
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How dare you you son of a bitch
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Dec 16, 2022 07:23
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Stand within ten yard of tua and say that and not online and watch what happens fucker.
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Dec 16, 2022 07:38
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Amy Pole Her posted:How dare you you son of a bitch One of my favorite trends is how the dolphins get generational talents (Jason Taylor; Tyreek) but cling to the weird physically underwhelming mascot on the team (Zach Thomas; Tua). In fairness I think this is a localized thing. Fond memories of Ken Dorsey being this for those Hurricanes teams. (All of Boston does this as well)
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Dec 16, 2022 07:39
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BlindSite posted:Stand within ten yard of tua and say that and not online and watch what happens fucker. Based on his interview history, I apparently would just need to take off my belt and accuse him of trying to quit football to win this fight. (I seriously hope his scary stage dad has gone the hell away).
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Dec 16, 2022 07:40
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TheGreyGhost posted:Based on his interview history, I apparently would just need to take off my belt and accuse him of trying to quit football to win this fight. (I seriously hope his scary stage dad has gone the hell away). Tua's dad was waiting for him in the ambulance in Cincinnati. This is why Tua flew home.
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Dec 16, 2022 07:52
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TheGreyGhost posted:One of my favorite trends is how the dolphins get generational talents (Jason Taylor; Tyreek) but cling to the weird physically underwhelming mascot on the team (Zach Thomas; Tua). In fairness I think this is a localized thing. Fond memories of Ken Dorsey being this for those Hurricanes teams. I mean if Tua ends up 7 time all pro and 7 time pro bowl AND named to the all 2020s team…I’ll be pretty pumped. And your post implies that Jason Taylor isn’t a Miami legend
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Dec 16, 2022 07:53
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None of the 2023 QBs excite this poster anymore. Now all passion goes toward #1 pass rusher, Will Anderson “Von Miller 2.0” Jr.
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Dec 16, 2022 07:55
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all willie andersons belong to me
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Dec 16, 2022 13:10
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