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Feliday Melody posted:Why is that? Check the link above. But many reasons, such as casualties not being distributed equal. Some positions (”the spearhead”)are lost more, so teamwork and skills become unevenly distributed as time progress. With greener troops replacing the more dangerous positions as they have higher casualty rates, this gets more probounced. E: but yes as in the previous post, you can’t just slot in replacements and hope that a unit that has learned how to operate together will function the same. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 14:41 on Dec 30, 2022 |
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Dec 30, 2022 14:37
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Electric Wrigglies posted:I think it is to do with training as a group to be a team rather than training individual skills. Train as a team, fight as a team, win as a team. Taking out a key component and replacing it with someone unfamiliar to the team degrades the whole unit greater than the lost veteran experience of the individual replaced solider. That all makes perfect sense.
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Dec 30, 2022 14:44
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Electric Wrigglies posted:I think it is to do with training as a group to be a team rather than training individual skills. Train as a team, fight as a team, win as a team. Taking out a key component and replacing it with someone unfamiliar to the team degrades the whole unit greater than the lost veteran experience of the individual replaced solider. While not myself an expert I'm not sure the latter half of this statement (i.e. that the US does this by design, that it is particularly effective, and that the US has consistently done this throughout its history) is true. For starters the US didn't even have a significant standing army until post-WW2, which represents a marked break in its approach to military issues in and of itself and calls into question any claim about consistent historical US military policy.* Also, what you describe in Vietnam is similar to the repple-depple system used by the US in WW2 which was notoriously bad as it ran right into the issue you describe with cohesive teams getting broken up by fresh newcomers who, due to their inexperience, quickly die which in turn causes the veterans to become distant and detached from newcomers which doesn't really help with their survivability, etc. etc. The Vietnam-era US Army, on that note, wasn't exactly notable for its efficiency and effectiveness and is widely regarded as a low point in how well the military worked - part of the reason the US military performed as well as it did during the Gulf War was due to post-Vietnam reforms specifically addressing issues noticed in the Vietnam-era military. I believe, though again not being my particular interest I'd have to double-check, that one of the specific issues were "relying on the draft leads to poor combat performance, we need a larger, more cohesive highly trained core instead." Describing the modern US military as relying mostly on green troops instead of a highly trained standing army definitely seems kinda off to me. *I note also that the early US avoidance of large standing armies had less to do with a belief in the combat effectiveness of conscripts and more to do with a long-standing distrust of large standing armies as being potentially dangerous to democratic politics as well as a general isolationist tendency suspicious of large military forces being a temptation to engage in foreign adventures. This only really changed when WWII convinced Americans that America needed a permanent global presence to safeguard its interests.
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Dec 30, 2022 15:11
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I've often heard it claimed that the divisions slated for the first waves at Normandy were selected in part because they had a larger number of newly minted soldiers who wouldn't be as hesitant to run headlong into the teeth of German machine guns. I doubt this is as big a factor as it's often made out to be, but I'm also sure that most people, having been shot at and seen your friends killed and injured before, would be far less motivated to take the sorts of risks that Overlord's planners knew would be necessary to establish a solid and exploitable beachhead. The risk of a second Anzio was probably in their minds
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Dec 30, 2022 15:14
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Head of the Danish Military Intelligence department of 'Russia Analysis' (difficult to translate the Danish wording) gave a rather surprising interview to a Danish newspaper. In true spy fashion the intelligence officer cannot reveal his name or have his picture taken, but offers an unprecedented degree of transparency into their analysis and gives a surprising main reason for the invasion: Summary: - The intelligence officer approached the journalist with this story, not the other way around. - The interview is conducted in an nondescript intelligence agency meeting room, and takes the form of a delivery of carefully prepared bullet points. - Although he cannot state it with certainty, he believes medical hormone treatment caused Putin to suffer temporary delusions of grandeur. - Temporary mental instability is thus the primary reason that the invasion happened when it did and in the way it did. - He believes the invasion could have succeeded in taking Kiev if Putin hadn't messed it up. - Failure #1: Keeping the invasion plans secret from everyone outside a very small inner circle. - Failure #2: Insisting on the 'Special Military Operation' moniker which prevented the use of drafted soldiers, resulting in understrength units and extreme impact from any casualties. - Failure #3: Putin strongly believed that the majority of Ukrainian citizens would welcome the Russian forces as liberators - and planned based on this. - Failure #4: Humiliation of Putin personally (especially internationally) is a bigger driver of decisions than events on the ground in Ukraine. He wants to appear strong and in control at any cost. - They do not believe a coup is likely in any near future. There is no one who can threaten him and his security apparatus is still loyal to him. They also do not believe a popular uprising will happen. - They believe health issues may cause a coup to happen, as there is a limit to how what state of health the security apparatus elite will accept. It was worded as something that may happen in the future, but is not imminent. They do not believe he is currently suffering from any life-threatening conditions. - They state that Putin suffers from chronic pain due to accidents (riding, judo, hockey). They believe this is why he grips the table in various videos. - A hypothetical future offensive into Crimea is briefly mentioned. The intelligence officer states that the west pressuring Ukraine to back off from such a move may not have the intended de-escalating effect - it could be regarded as weakness and may lead to Putin upping the ante. Nothing spectacular or which hasn't been speculated elsewhere. The most surprising thing to me is that he claims that western intelligence did know about the systemic corruption and leadership issues in the Russian military, but that they expected these would not prevent victory over Ukraine - and that this failure is squarely on Putin's delusions and low-level meddling - which supposedly continues still. This is a reputable Danish newspaper and the article can be taken at face value. It is interesting (and the newspaper has later remarked on this in an editorial) that Danish military intelligence is actively pushing this information to the media. Article is paywalled and in Danish: https://www.berlingske.dk/globalt/forsvarets-efterretningstjeneste-medicinudloest-storhedsvanvid-kan-have In English (not sure about paywall): https://www.berlingske.dk/internationalt/danish-military-intelligence-suggests-drug-induced-megalomania-may My personal commentary: I am pleased that the agency apparently shares my personal view on the problematic nature of trying to prevent Ukraine from 'winning too hard'. There is an inherent risk of escalation in all possible outcomes: Russian victory, Ukrainian total victory, Western pressure for a limited Ukrainian victory. I think we're dealing with a "damned if you do and damned if you don't" situation in regards to the future hypotheticals. Which is why it makes sense to focus on the immediate events instead. I think the western allies have been surprisingly good at this - and I am optimistic they will be able to manage de-escalation and supporting Ukraine going forward. These are not mutually exclusive. I am also glad the agencies maintain a healthy respect for the Russian destructive capabilities - and are keen to the fact that the invasion was closer to succeeding than what popular opinion currently holds. Edit: English language version has been added by the newspaper, so I added the link. PederP fucked around with this message at 19:58 on Dec 30, 2022 |
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Dec 30, 2022 15:47
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Bradleys are cantankerous, loud obnoxious vehicles. They also are fast for a tracked vehicle, take a beating and are generally low maintenance while allowing you to move troops across dangerous terrain and provide support with a 30mm that'll shred anything short of rolled steel plating. And we mostly moved over to the Stryker, we might as well give them a good home.
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Dec 30, 2022 15:50
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Scratch Monkey posted:I've often heard it claimed that the divisions slated for the first waves at Normandy were selected in part because they had a larger number of newly minted soldiers who wouldn't be as hesitant to run headlong into the teeth of German machine guns. I doubt this is as big a factor as it's often made out to be, but I'm also sure that most people, having been shot at and seen your friends killed and injured before, would be far less motivated to take the sorts of risks that Overlord's planners knew would be necessary to establish a solid and exploitable beachhead. The risk of a second Anzio was probably in their minds It's simpler than that, they were relatively "fresh" because the rest of America's "veteran" divisions were committed to Italy when the buildup for Overlord started. There were rotations of course, and units that had fought in Italy saw action in Normandy, but despite America's shipbuilding programs, there wasn't the logistics to transport and outfit divisions in the UK and rotate in the divisions from Italy with their equipment.
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Dec 30, 2022 16:10
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New Perun video is up - this one analyzing ammunition issues for both Russia and Ukraine. TL;DW is that Russia likely is currently supply constrained, and won’t be able to have sufficient new ammo to sustain any kind of offensive operations without significant production changes or outside help. Also suggests that Ukraine is in trouble with current usage patterns and current western production/supply patterns. Ukraine has more options available to meet its needs (e.g substituting new weapon systems), but they’ll require going beyond the current status quo. The devil’s in the details, and it dives pretty far in - very worth watching. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deK98IeTjfY the other hand fucked around with this message at 16:54 on Dec 30, 2022 |
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Dec 30, 2022 16:11
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J.A.B.C. posted:And we mostly moved over to the Stryker, we might as well give them a good home. There are less SBCTs than there are ABCTs or IBCTs. SBCTs are the least numerous type of BCT, barring airborne and air assault.
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Dec 30, 2022 16:23
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PederP posted:Head of the Danish Military Intelligence department of 'Russia Analysis' (difficult to translate the Danish wording) Informally this position would usually be referred to in English as the head of the "Russia desk."
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Dec 30, 2022 16:57
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Tomn posted:While not myself an expert I'm not sure the latter half of this statement (i.e. that the US does this by design, that it is particularly effective, and that the US has consistently done this throughout its history) is true. For starters the US didn't even have a significant standing army until post-WW2, which represents a marked break in its approach to military issues in and of itself and calls into question any claim about consistent historical US military policy.* Also, what you describe in Vietnam is similar to the repple-depple system used by the US in WW2 which was notoriously bad as it ran right into the issue you describe with cohesive teams getting broken up by fresh newcomers who, due to their inexperience, quickly die which in turn causes the veterans to become distant and detached from newcomers which doesn't really help with their survivability, etc. etc. The Vietnam-era US Army, on that note, wasn't exactly notable for its efficiency and effectiveness and is widely regarded as a low point in how well the military worked - part of the reason the US military performed as well as it did during the Gulf War was due to post-Vietnam reforms specifically addressing issues noticed in the Vietnam-era military. I believe, though again not being my particular interest I'd have to double-check, that one of the specific issues were "relying on the draft leads to poor combat performance, we need a larger, more cohesive highly trained core instead." Describing the modern US military as relying mostly on green troops instead of a highly trained standing army definitely seems kinda off to me. By green, I don't mean undertrained. I just mean have not seen combat in the same role before. You are right I am not thinking of pre-WWI for US combat history and that I am over-generalizing. The main point is that training as a group is more important than prioritizing having veterans. The Vietnam example I raised because I understood it as being a less effective time for US ground forces and that an alternative system by experienced war planners (Europeans in Europe after hundreds of years of peer scale conflict) was to drag entire units off the line to rebuild, refit and to shake down away from combat as opposed to topping up units with fresh recruits to keep them near complement as long as possible. Another example is a cold war Aussie units would get deployed as a unit and then relieved after a set time as a unit as opposed to a unit (say 1st brigade) staying a long time on a mission and the personal within the unit changing on a continuous basis. As another example of veteran not always being an automatically good thing, there was a unit that was very experienced from North Africa (7th UK Armoured?) that evidently underperformed in Normandy versus completely new built units that were assembled for the operation. The "green" units (US/UK/Canadian/etc) fighting as per training, could and did defeat very experienced German units outperforming the 7th despite not having the experience of the 7th. This is not to say experience is all moot. For logistics, planning and leadership, the experience with operation Torch brought a great many changes to US gear (less so as US gear was already pretty solid), doctrine and training that was applied to front line troops thereafter and had a marked effect. I just don't think a few extra hundred tank drivers/gunners having seen combat before in the same type of vehicle makes that much of a difference to war planning. That's not to say that a more survivable tank is not the morally right thing to do or that it will have no impact, just from a holistic whole of picture near peer war planners view, the survivability difference between a M1 or a T72 is less of a deal than it is made out to be. I argue the far superior sensors in an M1 is the bigger attraction but those are likely available in Bradleys as well, which will be easier and quicker to integrate into current forces. Electric Wrigglies fucked around with this message at 17:46 on Dec 30, 2022 |
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Dec 30, 2022 17:26
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It sure is some absolute goon logic that  conscripts are better than combat veterans, ergo T-72's are better than tanks that don't always blow up with everyone onboard because that way you don't need to mix crews 
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Dec 30, 2022 17:27
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It's being stated in a roundabout way, but the idea is that veteran troops are good at not dying, while green but properly trained troops will be more willing to take risks to achieve strategic objectives. Untrained mobiks are good at neither.
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Dec 30, 2022 17:34
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Nenonen posted:It sure is some absolute goon logic that That's not what I said. For your benefit I have bolded the bit where I had already redundantly typed out the otherwise self-evident because of course some goon is going to take "it is not as important as is stated over and over again to the point of being lore" as meaning "tanks that blow up everyone inside is the best and were designed that way deliberately for that reason - also gently caress trained volunteers, conscription rules!".
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Dec 30, 2022 17:45
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Because you don't send veterans across minefields and under mortar fire to take the trenches, but you do for mobiks because that's the only thing they are good at (from a military POV). Just like Wagner sends prisoners in Bakhmut instead of all the retired VDV/SOBR/Spetznats guys who were the prewar core (and who will tell the command to gently caress off if asked)
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Dec 30, 2022 17:46
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Nenonen posted:It sure is some absolute goon logic that Conscripts =/= green but trained troops. I don't know where you're getting this idea from nor is anyone saying the increased risk taking of those same green troops makes stuff like the T-72 "better than tanks that don't always blow up".
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Dec 30, 2022 17:50
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Charlotte Hornets posted:Because you don't send veterans across minefields and under mortar fire to take the trenches, but you do for mobiks because that's the only thing they are good at (from a military POV). Just like Wagner sends prisoners in Bakhmut instead of all the retired VDV/SOBR/Spetznats guys who were the prewar core (and who will tell the command to gently caress off if asked) Aside from that, non-trained and barely trained conscripts are useful as manpower in the logistics chain and base support (which is where Ukraine finds their mobilized and territorial defense units at their best too).
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Dec 30, 2022 18:05
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Re: green/trained/unit replacement/individual replacement. Let's see what professionals think. https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/January-February-2020/Haider-Replacements/ This team of authors thinks that in a large scale high intensity conflict, it is impractical to rotate units in and out and that realistically, individuals will have to be plugged into existing units in line and that potentially the wrong lessons were learned from Vietnam and GWOT due to circumstances. I do not think the debate or policy is by any means settled.
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Dec 30, 2022 18:44
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To my non-professional rear end, it seems that not having your people die needlessly is a good thing, all else being equal. If there's any benefit to rotating in fresh troops, you could still do it if you wanted.
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Dec 30, 2022 19:29
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Western countries fighting remote wars on their own terms. Probably have a lot more leeway when it comes to rotating in and out divisions. As opposed to countries fighting for their existence as shells fall on their cities. I'm a company level medic in a Swedish motorized task force company. In the event of a defensive war. I am to serve 90 days and then be rotated out for a few weeks of rest. Rotating out the medics would basically disable the whole company. So do you rotate out the entire company? Logistics and all? Do we park our vehicles, turn in our weapons, and go home and watch TV as the shells fall? Of course not. The country is 500 km wide. Where do I go to rest? You just keep going until the war ends, and catch as many breaks as you can get in the meantime. The injured are replaced individually as good as can be accommodated.
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Dec 30, 2022 20:05
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December 26-30 round-up Slow news week, but the last 2 days actually piled a bit up. Deep dives: WaPo has one more of those giant articles they used to do, this time about the planning and execution of the Kharkiv counter-offensive. One of the interesting details there is that US-UK planners wargamed a Zaporizhzhia push for them, and advised Ukrainians against doing so, which was their plan initially - to sever the "land bridge". https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offensive-kharkiv-kherson-donetsk/ NYT wrote a cool piece about Kherson partisans. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/25/world/europe/ukraine-kherson-defiance-russia.html Regular news: Mildly  article from Meduza about draft dodging strats in the modern day Russia. Including  methods like stabbing yourself two dozen times. https://meduza.io/feature/2022/12/2...t-delat-yuristyUkraine's minister for digital affairs says that the country is good on recon drones, and is switching focus towards combat drones. https://apnews.com/article/technology-politics-russia-ukraine-war-government-515d68aa0d0460dd07b8797dd063cd6c Putin has recused himself from talking to journalists in person, ever. Stated reasoning is COVID-19. https://t.me/youlistenedmayak/24940 Guardian has a piece on kids "stuck" in Crimea. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/27/children-become-stuck-at-camps-in-crimea-ukraine-russia WaPo has as scoop on shortfall of repair parts of the captured Russian gear. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/27/ukraine-russia-tanks-military-vehicles/ The Intercept has a scoop on Russia-China propaganda agreement from 2021. https://theintercept.com/2022/12/30/russia-china-news-media-agreement/ They also have a piece on Ukrainian authorities accusing a Danish journalist of spying. https://theintercept.com/2022/12/29/matilde-kimer-ukraine/ Ukrainian government says that 3.4k of its military service members are considered held hostage, and 15k more missing in action. https://censor.net/ru/news/3390313/v_plenu_nahodyatsya_34_tys_ukraintsev_esche_15_tys_schitayut_propavshimi_bez_vesti Ukrainian authorities say that the energy grid tracks towards stabilization. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/29/...g-holidays.html Ukrainian military intelligence chief says that the war is in a stalemate. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64109024 A Russian court has declared as extremist a video where some Russian teenager argued that Ukraine owes its existence to sucking Russia's dick off, on xenophobia charges no less. https://zona.media/news/2022/12/29/politolog Officials of the Russian occupation "governments" in Ukraine are allowed to skip declaring properties or taxes up until the end of fighting. https://t.me/faridaily24/740 https://tass.ru/ekonomika/16722299 NYT has put up a summary of the Nordstream explosion aftermath so far, what litter there is to be summarized. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/26/world/europe/nordstream-pipeline-explosion-russia.html They also did a piece looking a into a facet of civil life in Russia. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/27/world/europe/ryazan-russia-support-ukraine-war.html And a piece looking to a facet of civil Russian life abroad. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/29/world/europe/antalya-russia-emigres-war.html Medvedev is now in charge of the Russian MIC. https://www.rbc.ru/politics/26/12/2022/63a9b04c9a79476932f11c59 Belarus MoD claims that a piece of Ukrainian S-300 fell on the territory of Belarus. UA MoD response to that was much less combative than the Poland farm incident aftermath, saying that while it could be provocation, they're happy too cooperate. https://t.me/modmilby/21334 https://censor.net/ru/news/3390195/minoborony_o_padenii_rakety_v_belarusi_ne_isklyuchaem_provokatsii_so_storony_rf_gotovy_k_rassledovaniyu "Countersanctions" on the oil price cap - Putin is going to allow cap-compliant oil sales only to select destinations. https://www.ft.com/content/a6fbab1d-fa9c-4b34-a3a7-9240e5ef5b6e Biden admin, reportedly, is really keen on containing Iranian drones. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/28/us/politics/iran-drones-russia-ukraine.html Gas is down to pre-war price, for the moment. https://www.ft.com/content/6f83306f-14ef-458f-a47e-1cac9c6c6dc6 Another string on the Engels bomber airbase. https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/ukrainian-drone-hits-bomber-base-inside-russia-ukraines-cities-attacked/ Another mass airstrike on Ukrainian infrastructure, with a wave of cruise missiles, according to AFU featuring Kh-31P anti-radiation missiles, following a wave of drones. https://www.ft.com/content/59dcedd3-7b3f-44be-a297-cf21e532794c Zelenskyy has signed an unpopular media reform, that I wouldn't be surprised seeing the Venice Committee shoot down when they're back from holidays, like they did with the constitutional court law. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/30/world/zelensky-journalism-law-free-speech.html Another wealthy Russian felled by a foreign window, this time in India. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/27/world/europe/pavel-antov-russia-dead-india.html Foreign software piracy soon to be made legal in Russia, for businesses suffering from sanctions in that regard. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5756170 Bellingcat's Christ Grozev is now a wanted criminal in Russia, explicitly for no specific crime. https://zona.media/news/2022/12/26/grozev Russian government has overtly seized all biometric records within its reach. https://zona.media/news/2022/12/29/bio Also, it's soliciting a development of a hard Android fork (including Google services replacement). https://zona.media/news/2022/12/30/os This comes on the eve of Yandex co-founder resigning too, which smells like a massive step towards China-style state capitalism. https://t.me/Bell_tech/3967 Kazakhstan has deported home a Federal Protective Service refusenik (probably because loving with FSO is not the fight they care to have). https://zona.media/news/2022/12/30/zhilin SBU says that it has considered, since February, upward of 1200 Ukrainians to be Russia-oriented provocateurs, with roughly half of the cases producing material evidence, and a third of that half - convictions. https://t.me/SBUkr/6362 Kadyrov may have leaked that there's going to be a second mobilization wave (not that the first one has ended outside rich cities). https://t.me/news_sirena/9304 2022 "replay" from Russian journalists. https://zona.media/article/2022/12/30/results 9 rings have been forged for the representatives of CIS countries. https://t.me/tvrain/61206 Other round-ups: https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-dec-28-29 (apparently Russians are pushing Bakhmut with T-90Ms) https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-dec-27-28 https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-dec-26-27 (more logistics problems for Russian forces, the above and below dispatches go into that as well) https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-dec-23-26 https://zona.media/chronicle/310 https://zona.media/chronicle/309 https://zona.media/chronicle/308 https://zona.media/chronicle/307 https://zona.media/chronicle/306 https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-dec-28-29 https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-dec-27-28 (seems that a storm is brewing up about Russian expats) https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-dec-26-27 https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-dec-25-26 https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-dec-24-25 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-29 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-28 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-27 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-26
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Dec 30, 2022 20:35
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MikeC posted:Re: green/trained/unit replacement/individual replacement. My understanding is that Ukraine has in fact been rotating units out, or at least reporting that such rotations are taking place, even in high intensity locations such as Bakhmut.
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Dec 31, 2022 00:43
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Vox Nihili posted:My understanding is that Ukraine has in fact been rotating units out, or at least reporting that such rotations are taking place, even in high intensity locations such as Bakhmut. Yes, they rotate at least something; I think week or so ago the Bakhmut responsibilities were handed to another division that had moved to the sector. Its probably company-by-company and then the other command takes over. Feliday Melody posted:Western countries fighting remote wars on their own terms. Probably have a lot more leeway when it comes to rotating in and out divisions. As opposed to countries fighting for their existence as shells fall on their cities. But I also have to agree with this. You realistically cannot do large-scale rotation on places that are under constant attack. If the enemy does not ease the pressure, its not something that you can do either. The rotations happened in WW1 and others when the other guy was ceasing up also, because of rotations or logistics hiccuping.
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Dec 31, 2022 00:49
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Vox Nihili posted:My understanding is that Ukraine has in fact been rotating units out, or at least reporting that such rotations are taking place, even in high intensity locations such as Bakhmut. With the Ukrainians unwilling to inform us of their troop movements it's hard to tell exactly how they are rotating units. The authors make the distinction between effectively "in theatre" rotation where units are rotated to the rear to act as an operational reserve at which point individuals replacements are fed into the unit to restore it to its authorized strength and "out of theatre" rotations where the unit is withdrawn for reconstitution and a full retraining regime before being sent back to the front. I would imagine it would be a mix of the two given that some units are definitely getting retrained as Western equipment flows into the country and the fact that they have managed to upgrade a small number Territorial brigades into useful offensive units implies full unit retraining awat from the front lines. I don't really know. I was posting the article to clear up misconceptions about how the US has historically dealt with replacements in war (they primarily used individual replacements until GWOT where they switched to out of theatre rebuilds as rotations ended) and what the discussion is on current "best practices".
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Dec 31, 2022 01:49
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 Lame but I haven't seen a Bennett in ages. He hasn't recovered since 2016.
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Dec 31, 2022 02:28
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Electric Wrigglies posted:By green, I don't mean undertrained. I just mean have not seen combat in the same role before. You are right I am not thinking of pre-WWI for US combat history and that I am over-generalizing. The main point is that training as a group is more important than prioritizing having veterans. MikeC posted:Re: green/trained/unit replacement/individual replacement. The cited study below interacts with the arguments made in the OP in a rather interesting way. I'm not personally able to gauge the validity of the study, but it hammers home the point that veterancy is critical for combat effectiveness, noting that combat effectiveness is best maintained with a strong core of veterans who can take green troops under their wing in settled conditions long enough to integrate into the unit. Their argument for individual replacement instead of unit replacement systems is that replacing troops by unit is waiting too long, allowing the unit to bleed off too many of its veterans before sending in replacements to maintain a high level of combat effectiveness while individual replacement allows a unit to be topped off before its veterans die out so that the green troops can benefit from their experience. They do make the point that integration does not happen immediately and that it's best if replacements can be integrated to subunits currently acting as a combat reserve instead of being sent directly to the frontline so that they have time to train together and build cohesion with the veterans (unlike the WW2 experience in which new troops were frequently hurled straight to the frontline upon arriving in-theater). In other words, the idea that training as a group and having veterans are inherently opposed concepts seems to be a false dichotomy - the ideal, according to this team of experts at least, is that replacements should have time to be trained together as a group by the existing veterans. With that in mind, keeping experienced tankers alive with better equipment so that they can continue to form a training cadre for replacement troops to pass on their experience certainly seems like an important benefit. How important exactly is difficult to quantify and I'd be personally wary of making the argument that the chief benefit of US military equipment in comparison to Warsaw Pact equipment is the increased survivability of crews in combat, but nevertheless it certainly seems worth including as a key selling point on the brochure, as it were.
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Dec 31, 2022 03:26
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The Haitian posted:
If you post in wrong thread on the new year's eve, you get to make a wish! 
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Dec 31, 2022 11:13
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The Haitian posted:
Idgi
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Dec 31, 2022 15:14
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Excellent new year's appeal by Reznikov in Russian to Russians - Second wave of mobilization is going to start after new year's, the borders fully closed - If you come to Ukraine you'll die or be disabled - Russia is fighting for the Kremlin's wealth and power and nothing else - Russia is going to pay reparations for generations, but that's a small price to pay for the average peaceful citizen. people who participate in war crimes directly will face punishment Pretty much what knowledgeable analysts have been saying for the past three months, but very nicely put https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHtZbx7Z61U Somaen fucked around with this message at 15:37 on Dec 31, 2022 |
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Dec 31, 2022 15:31
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Somaen posted:Excellent new year's appeal by Reznikov in Russian to Russians What are the chances an ordinary Russian will see this address?
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Dec 31, 2022 15:47
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BigRoman posted:What are the chances an ordinary Russian will see this address? Fairly high, if you count presentations involving disparaging counter-commentary.
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Dec 31, 2022 16:05
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According to ФБК news stream, Russian borders are relatively unobstructed, and people can still leave the country with relative ease. Border guards have a list of at least 1.5 million names, but rarely bother to check papers against that list. Even if restrictions were working as intended, border guards are so notoriously corrupt, then it's only a matter of paying a nominal bribe.
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Dec 31, 2022 16:36
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There's also an element that you aren't targeting all Russians with the message, just Men aged 18-40, which gets you a lot closer to 'scouring online sources for news as to what's going on'. Particularly rumours of further conscription rounds.
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Dec 31, 2022 17:02
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Somaen posted:Excellent new year's appeal by Reznikov in Russian to Russians Is this based on any intelligence or just his prediction?
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Dec 31, 2022 17:10
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Willo567 posted:Is this based on any intelligence or just his prediction? Most likely intelligence because 1) they have the resources for it 2) saying that and not being true would look bad Russian analysts have been predicting that a second wave of mobilization will be needed due to a continuing lack of manpower for a while now so no reason not to believe those claims
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Dec 31, 2022 17:18
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Russian enlistment offices have been straight up telling people to "come back after the holidays when the next round starts". It's not a secret or anything. The wildest part is that they've actually told this to people responding to enlistment notices
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Dec 31, 2022 17:44
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Russia is normally enlisting as part of their regular conscription, in two rounds each year if I'm not mistaken? Perhaps they meant that.
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Dec 31, 2022 19:05
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spankmeister posted:Russia is normally enlisting as part of their regular conscription, in two rounds each year if I'm not mistaken? Perhaps they meant that. Nah, there’s been a set of gaffes specific to second mobilisation wave, which is a linguistically very distinct word from conscription in Russian. The most notable, and a very recent one at that, is Kadyrov’s end of year speech, where he said that Chechnya did fulfil its mobilisation quota to 243%, and will thus be exempted from the second wave.
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Dec 31, 2022 19:28
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Nah, there’s been a set of gaffes specific to second mobilisation wave, which is a linguistically very distinct word from conscription in Russian. The most notable, and a very recent one at that, is Kadyrov’s end of year speech, where he said that Chechnya did fulfil its mobilisation quota to 243%, and will thus be exempted from the second wave. What about the claim that martial law is coming and that the borders are closing?
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Dec 31, 2022 19:38
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We'll find out, Christmas time (a week from now, the non-heretic one) is probably an easy time to find people staying with their families to give them the mobilization notices
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Dec 31, 2022 19:47
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