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They did enough damage that the entire country is having rolling blackouts. e.g. I checked an address in Odessa and it's approximately a rotating pattern of 3 hour blocks of no electricity/maybe electricity/yes electricity.
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Jan 2, 2023 14:26
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It isn't like you can't protect that infrastructure from attack, but doing so is likely very expensive and makes repairwork a lot harder when something does breakdown.
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Jan 2, 2023 14:39
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AtomikKrab posted:It isn't like you can't protect that infrastructure from attack, but doing so is likely very expensive and makes repairwork a lot harder when something does breakdown. Look at your average joe drunk rear end in a top hat wiping out a pole drink driving. That takes down a few blocks sometimes and hours to back to usual. Imagine if the ground, pole and anyone nearby able to fix the disruption is now blown up. Also in fear of more shells coming in. And this is happening at a country level.
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Jan 2, 2023 14:53
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Just Another Lurker posted:I thought that the attacks every two weeks was to let the Ukrainians do repairs and then have them all be destroyed all over again (to sap their morale & supplies), or was that just a conjecture by the media? There were 3 strikes in October and November each, 6 in December, and 1 this year. There’s no systemic cadence to them, besides a few seemingly being just hissy fits in response to good news for Ukraine. jaete posted:Yeah I haven't heard much actual detail about the nature of these attacks. Knowing nothing about electricity networks for example, it seems that there's a limited number of... transformers or substations or whatever, and they're obviously not mobile and their locations cannot be kept secret, so you'd think Russia would be able to just bomb those things until enough of them are gone and the network collapses? But apparently that hasn't happened? Are the Ukrainians repairing the damage easily? Or are they able to protect all of the most important substations (or whatever) using SAMs like IRIS-T etc? Or have they built missile-proof fortifications? Or can one somehow build new transformers (or whatever) in a different location? Nationwide collapse hasn’t happened, but there have been plenty oblast’ level collapses, and subsequent life under rolling blackouts, that at times would last longer than 12 hours at a time. There are no meaningful fortifications that we know of, and you can’t just move power grid junctions like that, because you’d also need to build a pile of high voltage lines to connect the new location. Consequently, the current defence strategy is just SAMs firing 2 missiles per incoming target, which overall seems to be working out to them shooting 50-60 missiles out of any given wave - if there’s more, they do hit either due to interception failure rate, or lack of SAMs to shoot them all down in time. On IRIS-T, they have just 1 system and were publicly asking for more missiles for it about a month ago already, if not saying explicitly that they’ve run out of missiles. If I had to guess, IRIS-T, Patriot, and NASAMA will all be split between Kyiv and whatever section of frontline is in urgent need of boosted air defences.
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Jan 2, 2023 14:53
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2 strikes this year. Against Iranian drones some tall poles w/some steel netting might work for substations, but that doesn't seem like something one can do to a powerplant, and probably won't do anything against a cruise missile.
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Jan 2, 2023 15:04
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OddObserver posted:2 strikes this year. Right, my bad, the 39 drones this morning.
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Jan 2, 2023 15:08
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the trouble with the drones is that ukraine has massively more perimeter and angles of attack to defend vs. what say, britain faced in ww2, so there arent easy avenues of approach that can be defended plus the drones could hit any number of targets because the electricity infrastructure is a target just as much as the power plants, so placing defenses just at the target site isnt possible and then the missiles cost at least $100k or more while the drones cost $20k, so i dont think getting more patriots or IRIS-Ts is a long term solution either the drones arent very complex though, their low cost and commercial components means ukraine could just start making their own at some point
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Jan 2, 2023 16:50
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Couldn’t Ukraine use those Korean War era radar assisted anti air guns? Or have all those been melted down?
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Jan 2, 2023 17:20
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Kraftwerk posted:Couldn’t Ukraine use those Korean War era radar assisted anti air guns? Or have all those been melted down? While I’m not sure if Gepard is described by that specific phrase, they seem to be getting good mileage out of the cannon-based AA they’ve received. The problem is that Ukraine is simply huge.
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Jan 2, 2023 17:22
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Large with multi-azimuth threats. You’ll see people compare it to the V-1 and UK, but on top of other clear problems with the comparison, those people forgot to look at a map and do not realize how many V-1s got through defenses. Or alternately, don’t realize how often V-1s failed in flight or otherwise went wildly off course.
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Jan 2, 2023 17:29
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These days you can easily get consumer GPS chips for guidance, WWII was before the invention of ICs (never mind navigation satellites!) so any sort of control was many orders of magnitude more complicated.
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Jan 2, 2023 17:36
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OddObserver posted:These days you can easily get consumer GPS chips for guidance, WWII was before the invention of ICs (never mind navigation satellites!) so any sort of control was many orders of magnitude more complicated. Yep the navigation is trivial nowadays at least as long as GPS isn't being hosed with. A dedicated hobbyist could put it together in a few days, e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXjGto5-AvA And I do believe I saw some Ukrainians say they'll be making drones like that themselves a while ago. IMO that is going to be the best counter to such asymmetrical threats since nobody is giving actual cruise missiles or even ATACMS to go after the drone bases.
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Jan 2, 2023 17:46
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Kraftwerk posted:Couldn’t Ukraine use those Korean War era radar assisted anti air guns? Or have all those been melted down? Yeah as CCZS says, the gepaard is exactly that. While it was built against helos and attack aircraft, taking down drones is a piece of cake for it But it can only do point defense and there are so many points to defend, and even if you could put down a gepard next to every power substation - ammo eventually runs out and if I recall correctly, Switzerland is blocking further deliveries of that It's currently a waiting game of who tires out first: air defense of suicide drones. What gives me hope is that during WW2, the western allies sent thousands and thousands of bombers over industrial areas to pulverize them. And every time, the sites were running within days to weeks again. These drone attacks will bind Ukrainian air defense but other than that they will only make Ukraine angrier
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Jan 2, 2023 17:49
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The major Iranian made drones aren’t so simple and vulnerable that they only operate off satellite positioning. They also contain INS.
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Jan 2, 2023 17:50
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OddObserver posted:2 strikes this year. I'm thinking the size of net needed to be useful would be too much to be practical. Most of the insulators are going to be porcelain or glass so even shrapnel in the wrong place could still take out equipment. Interception would probably be more economical in the end than trying to harden all the infrastructure when thinking about all the infrastructure that would be a target.
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Jan 2, 2023 18:07
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I had been wondering for a while now why Ukraine isn't simply producing or procuring en masse these apparently relatively cheap & simple Iran-style drones and saturating the poo poo out of the occupied territories with them. It's no secret where the Russians are keeping their troops and supplies thanks to satellite imagery and of course civilian partisans.
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Jan 2, 2023 19:25
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Unless they want to do the same kind of terror-bombing on their own occupied territory, they can't do the same sort of strike against Russian forces, because those forces are more hardened against attacks than widely-dispersed civilian infrastructure. It's the same reason this campaign's targetting Ukraine's power infrastructure over its troops in the first place, because it's harder to protect. And they're not about to do the same thing to Russian civilians over the border, nor should they, just to head that off.
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Jan 2, 2023 19:34
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Ukraine launched four HIMARS missiles and hit a building in Donetsk that was used as barracks for new Russian conscripts. Kyiv has not assumed responsibility (lol), but is claiming 400 Russian soldiers killed, another few hundred wounded. Moscow says 63 dead. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/02/ukraine-russia-war-donetsk-strike/ quote:Daniil Bezsonov, a senior Moscow-backed official for the region, wrote on Telegram that just after midnight on New Year’s Day, a Ukrainian missile had struck a vocational school in Makiivka that housed soldiers. Deadliest strike by Ukraine since the start of the invasion. The article says that this also marks a rare occasion where Russia conceded that there were heavy casualties.
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Jan 2, 2023 19:54
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Just read this Guardian article on how the civilians of Sumy kept the Russians at bay for months despite having limited weaponry and no professional military support. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/02/how-sumy-residents-kept-russian-forces-out-of-their-city
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Jan 2, 2023 20:16
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:I had been wondering for a while now why Ukraine isn't simply producing or procuring en masse these apparently relatively cheap & simple Iran-style drones and saturating the poo poo out of the occupied territories with them. It's no secret where the Russians are keeping their troops and supplies thanks to satellite imagery and of course civilian partisans. This undersells the years of R&D, experimentation, and operational use and refinement that went into Iran's drone program.
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Jan 2, 2023 20:22
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:I had been wondering for a while now why Ukraine isn't simply producing or procuring en masse these apparently relatively cheap & simple Iran-style drones and saturating the poo poo out of the occupied territories with them. It's no secret where the Russians are keeping their troops and supplies thanks to satellite imagery and of course civilian partisans. Why bother when they can use the cheaper and simpler strategy of dropping grenades off quadcopters
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Jan 2, 2023 20:46
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SaTaMaS posted:Why bother when they can use the cheaper and simpler strategy of dropping grenades off quadcopters Range.
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Jan 2, 2023 20:53
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OddObserver posted:Range. Ukraine doesn't need to worry about range unless they're attacking inside Russia, in which case they would need more expensive drones with longer range, which is what they've been building.
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Jan 2, 2023 20:58
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There's a number of advantages that the Shahed drones have over the consumer level quadcopter drones Ukraine has: - Range - Payload size - Preprogrammed flight paths. This makes them basically impossible to jam. Of course they aren't really a good comparison anyway as a Shahed can't be used for recon like a quadcopter and being a suicide drone it's a one time use. I'm not sure how accurate a Shahed is, but if it can reliably hit a building size target thats probably pretty good. Ukraine could benefit from having drones like that considering the Intel they are probably getting from NATO countries. Im sure these drones could do a lot of damage to an enemy military when actually used that way instead of terrorizing civilians.
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Jan 2, 2023 21:02
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SaTaMaS posted:Ukraine doesn't need to worry about range unless they're attacking inside Russia, in which case they would need more expensive drones with longer range, which is what they've been building. Shaheed's range is around 700km, IIRC, which would indeed be highly helpful for hitting all sorts of targets within Russia --- like any airfield or ammo storage anywhere near the border.
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Jan 2, 2023 21:09
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Is there any merit to Ukraine engaging in military strategies where they try to inflict massive losses on the Russians? For example- what if they deliberately create an opening in the front lines for Russian troops to advance into and Ukrainian artillery is zeroed in for that grid so they can inflict more casualties. Would that have any effect? My thinking is the only way Russia quits is if we can maximize their losses since it seems Ukraine can’t do much to actually stop them from lobbing missiles and drones at their civilians.
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Jan 2, 2023 23:32
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Kraftwerk posted:Is there any merit to Ukraine engaging in military strategies where they try to inflict massive losses on the Russians? That's basically their win condition. Inflict enough casualties that the lines can't hold and the Russians are ejected. quote:For example- what if they deliberately create an opening in the front lines for Russian troops to advance into and Ukrainian artillery is zeroed in for that grid so they can inflict more casualties. Would that have any effect? Zeroing in artillery where the enemy is advancing is pretty typical defensive stuff. You don't have to deliberately create the opening, you can simply shell as they form up to attack, as in hundreds of videos of the fighting at Bakhmut.
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Jan 2, 2023 23:48
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Kraftwerk posted:Is there any merit to Ukraine engaging in military strategies where they try to inflict massive losses on the Russians? Bakhut(sp) has been exactly that for months.
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Jan 3, 2023 00:14
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Kraftwerk posted:Is there any merit to Ukraine engaging in military strategies where they try to inflict massive losses on the Russians? I feel like movies and other fictional media have kind of conditioned people to expect cunning, clever plans with huge payoffs in warfare. In general, though, and especially in the era of industrialized warfare a straightforward, well-executed plan is usually better than elaborate 4D chess plays where one thing going wrong can send everything spiraling off into the sun. In this case deliberately giving ground carries a lot of risks - feigned retreats have an unfortunate tendency to become actual retreats if something goes wrong, and even if you deliberately give up ground with the intention of causing attrition there's no guarantee you can take it back without taking enough casualties to make the trade not terribly worth it, along with the risk of actually losing the ground in the first place and worsening your position. You might have a policy of letting your forces retreat before too much pressure comes down to avoid taking excessive casualties, but that's not the same thing as a deliberate feigned retreat to lure enemies into a trap. Sometimes there isn't really a better solution than both sides steadily bashing away at each other until somebody gets tired. It's unfortunate but that really does seem to be where the Ukrainian War is right now barring a sudden dramatic political change in the Kremlin.
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Jan 3, 2023 00:14
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cinci zoo sniper posted:While I’m not sure if Gepard is described by that specific phrase, they seem to be getting good mileage out of the cannon-based AA they’ve received. The problem is that Ukraine is simply huge. Also, we basically gave them all the ammunition we had left for the Gepard, and then ran into a wall when it turned out manufacturing your ammunition in a foreign, neutral state is kind of dumb. There's probably either now or soon a serious shortage of shells for the Gepards the Ukrainian forces are using. Germany finally started building a new factory, but last I checked it's slated to deliver its first production batch of new ammunition at some point in June/July 2023. It's probably getting worse in Spring because the Federal Republic managed to scrounge up a couple more Gepards, which will be finished with their refurbishing process soon. At least we annoyed Qatar enough they'll probably not gonna let us buy back their Gepards, so at least ammunition usage isn't going too be ramping up quite that fast! 
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Jan 3, 2023 00:16
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Libluini posted:Also, we basically gave them all the ammunition we had left for the Gepard, and then ran into a wall when it turned out manufacturing your ammunition in a foreign, neutral state is kind of dumb.
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Jan 3, 2023 00:36
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Also I don't usually like the "the Ukrainian military are god-like hypercompetent ubermensch and must surely have a solution to every possible problem anyone can propose" narratives, but if the Ukrainian high command hadn't been thinking about attritional warfare and how to engineer favorable casualty ratios since the moment it became clear that Russia wasn't going to be able to blitz Kyiv, they're utter incompetents and survived until now through sheer luck alone. You can probably safely assume that the Ukrainian military is already trying to do everything in its power to keep casualties in their favor without sacrificing their overall objectives and if there's a simple tactic that can occur to a rando on the Internet that might encourage casualty ratios in their favor odds are they're either already doing it or rejected it for good reason. I will say though, while grinding down the Russian Army until it no longer exists is certainly one win condition, successfully fighting back to pre-war borders can probably be considered a win condition for Ukraine as well as I suspect it'd be tricky even for Putin to spin the politics of continuing the war in a positive light when literally every gain has been rolled back. But both the objectives of regaining prewar borders and grinding down the Russian Army until it dissolves are both pretty far-off goals right now and I don't see any easy way of achieving them without a long hard period of steady fighting and casualties.
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Jan 3, 2023 00:38
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Tomn posted:I will say though, while grinding down the Russian Army until it no longer exists is certainly one win condition, successfully fighting back to pre-war borders can probably be considered a win condition for Ukraine as well as I suspect it'd be tricky even for Putin to spin the politics of continuing the war in a positive light when literally every gain has been rolled back. But both the objectives of regaining prewar borders and grinding down the Russian Army until it dissolves are both pretty far-off goals right now and I don't see any easy way of achieving them without a long hard period of steady fighting and casualties. Attritional warfare typically ends before either side is ground down to nothing; there is a minimum amount of combat power needed to man the trenches that sustain attritional deadlock. Without it the deadlock breaks. We saw that at Kharkov where the lines got so thin that a relatively small tank force simply pushed through them and routed the enemy. Something similar happened at Kherson where the losses sustained meant that the position gradually became untenable. Unless the west suddenly decides to give thousands of tanks and aircraft that can overwhelm the Russian army, it's hard to see a Ukrainian victory that doesn't involve repeating that process all the way to the Russian border. This is probably why we are seeing more and more focus on destroying Russian units, especially as their armor and artillery start to become more seriously depleted.
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Jan 3, 2023 00:51
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Charlz Guybon posted:Gepard uses 35mm ammunition which is a common enough caliber. Is there something unique about it? Otherwise, why do they need to get it from specialized factories? The unique thing about Gepard ammunition is that there are very few factories that make it. So you either have to wait in line for new ammo or pay a premium to source old ammo, probably with some promise of money or backfill or both on the back end, from a holder who doesn’t expect any need to use it themselves for the next year or two. Or pay someone else to cut them in line for their place in line for ammo deliveries. Some of those customers in line include people like UAE, Kuwait, KSA, who have a clear and obvious need for ammo and might not care to accept a shortage. Another factory floor is being tooled, expected to be operational by June of 2023.
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Jan 3, 2023 01:03
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mlmp08 posted:Or pay someone else to cut them in line for their place in line for ammo deliveries. Some of those customers in line include people like UAE, Kuwait, KSA, who have a clear and obvious need for ammo and might not care to accept a shortage.
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Jan 3, 2023 01:09
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SaTaMaS posted:Ukraine doesn't need to worry about range unless they're attacking inside Russia, in which case they would need more expensive drones with longer range, which is what they've been building. There are Russian staging and supply areas within Ukraine that are over 100 miles from the front line. Range absolutely matters a ton, doubly so given that Russia has an enormous numerical advantage in tube artillery and can potentially wipe out your operators with conventional artillery strikes.
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Jan 3, 2023 01:16
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Charlz Guybon posted:Gepard uses 35mm ammunition which is a common enough caliber. Is there something unique about it? Otherwise, why do they need to get it from specialized factories? Yeah the 35mm Oerlikons used by the Gepard are used on a number of different platforms. A ton of NATO countries have the static ground mount sitting around, Japan's Type 87 self propelled AA platform uses the same guns and ammo, as does Finland's Marksman. Hell even China license produces the drat guns and ammo. That's one thing there shouldn't be any shortage of really. Mr Luxury Yacht fucked around with this message at 01:30 on Jan 3, 2023 |
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Jan 3, 2023 01:28
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But no one needed large amount of this ammo because we had ~eternal peace~ in Europe, and the 35mm Oerlikon-based AA platforms deployed in Afghanistan etc. were fine with the small amounts of ammo that regularly came out of Rheinmetall factories. Gradually replacing existing stock and making a bit more to sell or use in the War on Terror was enough. E: One of these (previously) entirely sufficient factories was of the gun's/ammo's original creator in Switzerland and no one cared until Switzerland started blocking exports to Ukraine. Not even really because of neutrality, but because the Swiss lawmakers passed an export ban on military hardware for any country "involved in an internal or international armed conflict", that specifically removed any discretion the government had on the subject. The law only took effect in May 2022 and probably just killed our MIC exports forever (it wouldn't even be allowed to replace/service stuff you sold to friendly nations if they get attacked by anyone). The law is not getting changed because the right-wing party switched from being against the change to being strictly for it, out of an insane view on neutrality and having a non-trivial amount of Russia-understanders among their ranks. orcane fucked around with this message at 02:15 on Jan 3, 2023 |
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Jan 3, 2023 01:41
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I bet KSA has a lot of ammo, but they also have a lot of their own money to spend on things deliberately. https://www.defaiya.com/news/International%20News/Europe/2016/07/27/rheinmetall-wins-400-million-ammunition-order
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Jan 3, 2023 01:45
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Kraftwerk posted:Is there any merit to Ukraine engaging in military strategies where they try to inflict massive losses on the Russians? There is a substantial political element to the loss of life. It sounds clique, but the mothers of the soldiers are the one's with the most power in an authoritarian regime like Russia (I would point toward USSR in Afghanistan and Argentina as examples). The loss of sons mobilized in the war can pierce through the propaganda and rally anti-war opposition. My hope is that these mothers will protest sooner rather than later.
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