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Failed Imagineer posted:CNN just called the vote a "fecal festival" and I was like Debate & Discussion > USCE Winter 2023: A Fecal Festival!
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Jan 3, 2023 22:48
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:If this goes on for a while (think weeks to months) it becomes possible that a group of “moderate” GOP break off and negotiate with the Democrats in exchange for getting a “moderate” GOP in the seat, with some concessions such as backing continuing budget resolutions and debt ceiling increases. There’d be no formal enforcement mechanism of course but this type of deal is dangerous for the GOP because it increases the likelihood of the breakaway group continuing to negotiate with the Democrats. A group of democrats did this in the NY state senate for a while and the Alaska state senate has a similar arrangement. The issue is this group will torpedo their careers, because they'll be primaried. You only need a few but anyone willing already took their shot during the impeachment.
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Jan 3, 2023 22:48
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:If this goes on for a while (think weeks to months) it becomes possible that a group of “moderate” GOP break off and negotiate with the Democrats in exchange for getting a “moderate” GOP in the seat, with some concessions such as backing continuing budget resolutions and debt ceiling increases. There’d be no formal enforcement mechanism of course but this type of deal is dangerous for the GOP because it increases the likelihood of the breakaway group continuing to negotiate with the Democrats. A group of democrats did this in the NY state senate for a while and the Alaska state senate has a similar arrangement. Its gonna be weeks at minimum before anything like that becomes viable. So far, Republicans have only really pushed a single candidate (Jordan doesn't count, there isn't a whip operation for him) and there are dozens more people in leadership who will put their name in the ring to try to get over the line once Kevin gives up. Any republican who joins a coalition government with a minority Dem party will be eating a massive primary challenge in a few years Also, we have atleast 1 more defection to Jordan this round The Glumslinger fucked around with this message at 22:53 on Jan 3, 2023 |
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Jan 3, 2023 22:50
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Morrow posted:The issue is this group will torpedo their careers, because they'll be primaried. You only need a few but anyone willing already took their shot during the impeachment. A lot of these people are elected in vulnerable seats. I mean they could be primaried too but there's also the question of them losing their next election because of ads saying they voted Lauren Bobert to be in charge of the Q Committee or some poo poo
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Jan 3, 2023 22:51
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:If this goes on for a while (think weeks to months) it becomes possible that a group of “moderate” GOP break off and negotiate with the Democrats in exchange for getting a “moderate” GOP in the seat, with some concessions such as backing continuing budget resolutions and debt ceiling increases. There’d be no formal enforcement mechanism of course but this type of deal is dangerous for the GOP because it increases the likelihood of the breakaway group continuing to negotiate with the Democrats. A group of democrats did this in the NY state senate for a while and the Alaska state senate has a similar arrangement. Although it's fun to imagine, that option will absolutely not happen
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Jan 3, 2023 22:52
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The nightmare scenario at this point is just a slow trickle of defections to Jim Jordan with each successive round of voting, right?
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Jan 3, 2023 22:54
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Morrow posted:The issue is this group will torpedo their careers, because they'll be primaried. You only need a few but anyone willing already took their shot during the impeachment. A few that were going to retire anyway and a few in vulnerable seats who look at McCain and Sinema and Manchin and go “me too!” Brigadier Sockface posted:Although it's fun to imagine, that option will absolutely not happen As I said it’s not happening this week, but if this drags on for weeks / months then people will start wondering what could fix it.
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Jan 3, 2023 22:55
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The Glumslinger posted:Its gonna be weeks at minimum before anything like that becomes viable. So far, Republicans have only really pushed a single candidate (Jordan doesn't count, there isn't a whip operation for him) and there are dozens more people in leadership who will put their name in the ring to try to get over the line. Any republican who joins a coalition government with a minority Dem party will be eating a massive primary challenge in a few years Impeachment Republicans had a 20% survival rate, I'd expect similar for any attempted "problem solvers" that cross the aisle.
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Jan 3, 2023 22:55
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mmkay posted:Non-us here, a few questions: why does the freedom caucus hate Mccarthy? What is the rules package that's also voted on? Is that separate from the leader vote, and if it is what would happen if that failed too? Two reasons: First, he started out his political career as a moderate Republican, and paved his path to power by building close ties to other established leadership figures like Bill Thomas and John Boehner. And the Freedom Caucus hated Boehner, so much that they thwarted McCarthy's 2015 bid for Speaker largely because he was Boehner's handpicked successor. By the mid-2010s, he'd noticed which way the winds were blowing and moved well to the right, but the Freedom Caucus don't think he's a diehard true believer who'll stick with them no matter what. He's so openly ambitious that he's not especially trustworthy, as the general perception in DC is that he'll do drat near anything for power. Now that Trump's looking shaky, the Freedom Caucus are extremely worried that McCarthy will betray them or thwart their most ridiculous plans. Second, the Freedom Caucus want to assert their dominance by demonstrating that they're too important for the moderates to ignore. They'd likely be doing this to some extent no matter who the leading candidate was; the point is to show that despite being a small faction, they have the numbers and discipline to force major concessions from the rest of the party (especially with the GOP's extremely slim majority).
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Jan 3, 2023 22:56
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Dems still not budging https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1610393168033480704 meanwhile https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1610395873200033795
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Jan 3, 2023 23:02
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The Glumslinger posted:Its gonna be weeks at minimum before anything like that becomes viable. So far, Republicans have only really pushed a single candidate (Jordan doesn't count, there isn't a whip operation for him) and there are dozens more people in leadership who will put their name in the ring to try to get over the line once Kevin gives up. Any republican who joins a coalition government with a minority Dem party will be eating a massive primary challenge in a few years Unless this opposition is FAR more personal than I understand, I doubt there's anyone in R leadership who will get a better vote count than McCarthy. My personal take is that the HFC has learned the obstructionism lesson too well, and now the manticores have come home to roost. I don't know if they ever break, or if the last 15 or so years have taught them that total obstinacy is always rewarded. Time will tell, but I don't see a different leadership person or a political concession altering the HFC vote.
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Jan 3, 2023 23:02
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How is McCarthy looking at this point anyways? Is he getting more and more depressed, or more pissed?
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Jan 3, 2023 23:04
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Randalor posted:How is McCarthy looking at this point anyways? Is he getting more and more depressed, or more pissed? flop sweat
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Jan 3, 2023 23:05
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Randalor posted:How is McCarthy looking at this point anyways? Is he getting more and more depressed, or more pissed? He looked absolutely obliterated when he lost the FIRST vote like 5 hours ago 
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Jan 3, 2023 23:06
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Who switched their vote? I was in a meeting that took way longer than it should have
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Jan 3, 2023 23:06
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Seth Pecksniff posted:Who switched their vote? I was in a meeting that took way longer than it should have This guy 
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Jan 3, 2023 23:08
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Wouldn't Dems plus FC easily have the majority to adjourn? Is there any reason for the Democrats to not support a motion to adjourn?
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Jan 3, 2023 23:08
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Seth Pecksniff posted:Who switched their vote? I was in a meeting that took way longer than it should have Byron Donalds (R-Fla), saying that he doesn't think McCarthy has the votes
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Jan 3, 2023 23:08
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nine-gear crow posted:He looked absolutely obliterated when he lost the FIRST vote like 5 hours ago Oh, I know he was devastated after the first vote, but if he was looking more angry, maybe we could have gotten a good fistfight or explosive outburst out of him. Flop sweat... I dunno, maybe we can hope for a heart attack from the stress?
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Jan 3, 2023 23:08
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DynamicSloth posted:This guy Feels Villeneuve posted:Byron Donalds (R-Fla), saying that he doesn't think McCarthy has the votes Thanks!
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Jan 3, 2023 23:09
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Sorry if this has been answered (I didn't see it in the last couple pages at least) but there is no way we end up with a Democratic speaker, right? I'm guessing there's no rule that says "after 5 rounds the highest number of votes wins", so it would actually take 6 Rs crossing the aisle and voting for Jeffries? And that's basically impossible?
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Jan 3, 2023 23:10
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Phenotype posted:Sorry if this has been answered (I didn't see it in the last couple pages at least) but there is no way we end up with a Democratic speaker, right? I'm guessing there's no rule that says "after 5 rounds the highest number of votes wins", so it would actually take 6 Rs crossing the aisle and voting for Jeffries? And that's basically impossible? zero chance
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Jan 3, 2023 23:10
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Phenotype posted:Sorry if this has been answered (I didn't see it in the last couple pages at least) but there is no way we end up with a Democratic speaker, right? I'm guessing there's no rule that says "after 5 rounds the highest number of votes wins", so it would actually take 6 Rs crossing the aisle and voting for Jeffries? And that's basically impossible? there is slightly less than no chance this happens and even if it did it would be stupid because Jeffries does not command a majority of the house
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Jan 3, 2023 23:11
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Phenotype posted:Sorry if this has been answered (I didn't see it in the last couple pages at least) but there is no way we end up with a Democratic speaker, right? I'm guessing there's no rule that says "after 5 rounds the highest number of votes wins", so it would actually take 6 Rs crossing the aisle and voting for Jeffries? And that's basically impossible? Only if the extremely funny and unlikely scenario that a bunch of Republicans just decide to leave rather than have to stay and keep voting forever
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Jan 3, 2023 23:11
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Phenotype posted:Sorry if this has been answered (I didn't see it in the last couple pages at least) but there is no way we end up with a Democratic speaker, right? I'm guessing there's no rule that says "after 5 rounds the highest number of votes wins", so it would actually take 6 Rs crossing the aisle and voting for Jeffries? And that's basically impossible? Right. There is no way it would ever happen, and if it did happen it could be immediately reversed when the GOP settles their differences a few minutes later
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Jan 3, 2023 23:12
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Kevin McCarthy running an exhaust deck with vote after vote
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Jan 3, 2023 23:12
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Phenotype posted:Sorry if this has been answered (I didn't see it in the last couple pages at least) but there is no way we end up with a Democratic speaker, right? I'm guessing there's no rule that says "after 5 rounds the highest number of votes wins", so it would actually take 6 Rs crossing the aisle and voting for Jeffries? And that's basically impossible? It would take 6 Rs who've discovered late in life they want to join the party of Joe Biden, these rebels will be welcomed back with open arms at the next GOP fundraiser but there's no walking back a vote for the Democrats.
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Jan 3, 2023 23:12
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Torrannor posted:Wouldn't Dems plus FC easily have the majority to adjourn? Is there any reason for the Democrats to not support a motion to adjourn? Why interrupt your opponent in the middle of making a mistake? Moving the conflict off the floor and into back rooms only helps Republicans right now. It's not like adjourning stops the clock, so to speak.
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Jan 3, 2023 23:12
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Centurium posted:Why interrupt your opponent in the middle of making a mistake? Moving the conflict off the floor and into back rooms only helps Republicans right now. It's not like adjourning stops the clock, so to speak. Oh I think an adjournment at this point would be seen as a(nother) massive defeat for McCarthy, Democrats could probably vote for that.
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Jan 3, 2023 23:15
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Phenotype posted:Sorry if this has been answered (I didn't see it in the last couple pages at least) but there is no way we end up with a Democratic speaker, right? I'm guessing there's no rule that says "after 5 rounds the highest number of votes wins", so it would actually take 6 Rs crossing the aisle and voting for Jeffries? And that's basically impossible? Nope, the only real “win” here for the Democrats is to get the GOP members all pissed at each other and *maybe* get someone who’s from the GOP but more moderate than the current options across the line with Democratic votes.
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Jan 3, 2023 23:15
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https://twitter.com/RepDonaldsPress/status/1610394080118247429 Ha, ha YES!
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Jan 3, 2023 23:19
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Do they have the votes to adjourn lol
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Jan 3, 2023 23:21
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cr0y posted:Do they have the votes to adjourn lol No the US collapses here as an entity as this vote gets stuck for eternity, unable to win, unable to die.
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Jan 3, 2023 23:22
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cr0y posted:Do they have the votes to adjourn lol 212 Dems plus 6 Rs could do it if they wanted to
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Jan 3, 2023 23:23
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cr0y posted:Do they have the votes to adjourn lol that would be down to what the democrats want to do, McCarthy's party isn't going to adjourn because their entire strategy is to try to force him through on the basis that there isn't another viable candidate
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Jan 3, 2023 23:23
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Jan 3, 2023 23:23
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Jaxyon posted:Jim's too big an rear end in a top hat to get enough votes. He needs to taint up if he wants it.
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Jan 3, 2023 23:23
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America really loves voting for this shitshow of a political party and MAGA is just kind of okay with it's sheer level of dysfunction I guess. I wonder if they actually do eventually split off like the whole New Blue Party and PPC from the Conservative Party of Canada.
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Jan 3, 2023 23:24
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This has got to be a blow to K-Mac's ego and confidence. You hate to see it.
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Jan 3, 2023 23:24
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today has bascially been  including the part the gif loops over and over
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