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GOOG frightens me with openAI looming. Their profit is based on giving increasing lovely search results to sell a maximum amount of advertiser content. An AI chatbot that does so slightly more efficiently without selling you useless crap is an existential threat.
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Jan 1, 2023 07:37
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2023 results. Thanks to an inherited IRA from my uncle, I've got two accounts, one professionally managed and one self managed. I probably wouldn't go with a managed one these days but at the time (pre following this forum, among other things) I was very financially ignorant and knew I was financially ignorant, so having someone who knew what they were doing handling one seemed attractive. Plus I figured I could compare how they did and decide if having active management was worth it. Personally managed retirement account: down 9.6% Professionally managed retirement account: down 15.95% That isn't as big a condemnation of the managed account as it sounds, since it's just generally in positions that got hit harder this year, and performed much better than the personally managed account in 2021. But at the very least it's a sign that having it managed isn't a magic wand, either.
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Jan 1, 2023 20:06
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Subvisual Haze posted:GOOG frightens me with openAI looming. Their profit is based on giving increasing lovely search results to sell a maximum amount of advertiser content. An AI chatbot that does so slightly more efficiently without selling you useless crap is an existential threat. GOOG has just not made a single drat thing worth a drat in the last 6 years. Their best products are all 'legacy' with maybe the exception of Android and it's just a matter of time before they kill them or 'update' them, and their recent attempts at new business have been so incredibly stupid that I am just trained to expect that all their new stuff will be gone in 3~ years. Their core web services like Search and Youtube are hardly loved and the conversation around them is usually about how lovely they've become. Chrome might be their most popular product, but I do expect that they'll slowly start to lose their dominant place in that space as they continue to make it harder and harder to block ads. So yeah, I would not go long on GOOG. There is nothing to be excited about there and the majority of their services are hanging on by shear momentum, but that just means it's a matter of time before poo poo goes south. Canine Blues Arooo fucked around with this message at 21:00 on Jan 1, 2023 |
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Jan 1, 2023 20:57
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Purchased a Solana at 103.13 on 4/12 Sold my Solana at 104.26 on 4/13 I guess did make money on crypto in 2022.
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Jan 1, 2023 23:29
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How does this thread feel about GM? Looks like it’s back down in the 30s. They are my favorite of the big 3 when it comes to addressing electrification but what story is their 10-K / financials telling?
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Jan 3, 2023 03:50
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movax posted:How does this thread feel about GM? Looks like it’s back down in the 30s. They are my favorite of the big 3 when it comes to addressing electrification but what story is their 10-K / financials telling? I'm almost certainly gonna buy GM at some point in '23. It comes up on my screener for companies with FCF and strong FFO interest coverage trading below tangible book. The next largest company to come up on the screener is 1/8 of GM's size. GM is a total outlier right now. Plus I love how Barra is handling Cruise. Problem is that car sales seem likely to dip in early '23, as well as used car values as more people default on lovely loans they took out. Calling a bottom on the auto sector in general is difficult.
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Jan 3, 2023 13:04
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i am not so great at trading ~$40k worth of ISOs at the time of sale but hey, few years on, having done nothing with stocks whatsoever since (except hold other ISOs), derivatives are fun! 
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Jan 3, 2023 19:35
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Looking to sell a significant amount of stock at some point, around 0.5% of average daily volume for that company. It's pretty liquid but based on the depth that's way too much for a market order. How exactly do I go about this while minimizing the cost of liquidation? A single limit order at current ask price? Spread it out throughout the day? Or over multiple weeks? Or is 0.5% ADV too small to get worked up about?
esquilax fucked around with this message at 20:15 on Jan 3, 2023 |
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Jan 3, 2023 20:12
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Definitely no market order. I would try to split it into a number of limit orders and see how it goes.
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Jan 4, 2023 01:46
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esquilax posted:Looking to sell a significant amount of stock at some point, around 0.5% of average daily volume for that company. It's pretty liquid but based on the depth that's way too much for a market order. How exactly do I go about this while minimizing the cost of liquidation? A single limit order at current ask price? Spread it out throughout the day? Or over multiple weeks? Or is 0.5% ADV too small to get worked up about? It's kind of hard to say without knowing your broker or the ticker. If you have IBKR they actually have some pre-set algorithms you can use that split a large order over time. Otherwise... well it kind of depends on what the bid/ask spreads look like. I would think transacting 0.5% of the ADV of something wouldn't move it too much but without seeing it, dunno. Do keep in mind you can generally see the numerical size of the bids and asks; so if there's a big bid out there for 20,000 shares at a price you're fine with, just pay attention and hit it. Otherwise, as Baddog says, several limit orders spread out seems reasonable.
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Jan 4, 2023 02:48
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Coffee is for closers https://nypost.com/2023/01/03/goldman-sachs-yanks-free-coffee-perk-as-layoffs-loom/
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Jan 4, 2023 06:46
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Baddog posted:Coffee is for closers $2.99/cup for Seattle's Best. 
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Jan 4, 2023 15:57
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esquilax posted:Looking to sell a significant amount of stock at some point, around 0.5% of average daily volume for that company. It's pretty liquid but based on the depth that's way too much for a market order. How exactly do I go about this while minimizing the cost of liquidation? A single limit order at current ask price? Spread it out throughout the day? Or over multiple weeks? Or is 0.5% ADV too small to get worked up about? If this is also a significant dollar amount you could also call your broker and have their trading desk advise you. They might even be able to sell it for you as a single block.
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Jan 4, 2023 16:07
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I need $30k in cash, and have the following options from a taxable account with about $120k in it Johnson & Johnson - $28,000, cost basis $2,700 Procter & Gamble - $24,000, cost basis $2,900 VBK small cap growth - $15,000, cb of $10,000 VOT mid cap growth - $12,000, cb of $7,000 VUG 'growth' - $10,000, cb of $5,000 VEU all world ex us - $14,000, cb of $10,000 VOO s&p500 - $7,000, cb of $3,500 VTI total US stock - $9,000, cb of $3,000 It's all LTCGs and I am not really concerned with the resulting asset allocation because my portfolio as a whole won't swing much regardless of choice here. Typically I don't like to hold single-company stocks but JnJ and PG (probably) aren't going anywhere any time soon. Plus they're almost entirely Gains so that would be ouch oof bone hurting taxes The Vanguard ETFs look like a better crop to harvest, especially with all the overlap between some of them. Does anything jump out as the best plan? This account is basically a piggy bank I'll be raiding over the next few years for various projects
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Jan 4, 2023 19:44
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Baddog posted:Coffee is for closers Annnnd that's the end of the world right there. We literally joke about this in the corporate thread, that if free coffee goes away, run for the hills because you're hosed.
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Jan 4, 2023 19:48
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:I need $30k in cash, and have the following options from a taxable account with about $120k in it If asset allocation is really a non issue, it's a no brainer to sell the ones that are up the least and minimize taxes. You've really got no losers to balance out 30k of gains though? I figured you had six figs on table 12!
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Jan 4, 2023 19:57
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Baddog posted:If asset allocation is really a non issue, it's a no brainer to sell the ones that are up the least and minimize taxes. More like twelve figs on table 6   No sadly I harvested those delicious losses at the end of 2021. In what is certainly pure coincidence, I've had no losers to sell ever since I quit trying to pick stocks...
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Jan 4, 2023 20:09
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:More like twelve figs on table 6 Has it really been that long now? Goddamn. If you are being a good boy now and just blindly dropping a % of your salary into VOO every month, I'm sure you can find some lots from the past few years that are down. Don't just blindly hit the "FIFO sell" button.
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Jan 4, 2023 21:02
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Sundae posted:Annnnd that's the end of the world right there. We literally joke about this in the corporate thread, that if free coffee goes away, run for the hills because you're hosed. man coffee is cheap af too. I was thinking it is more a big deal if snacks, especially expensive snacks like cheese, go away. The idea of coffee going away is almost unconceivable to me.
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Jan 4, 2023 23:50
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To me it sounds like a big dramatic Elon-style gently caress you to try and get people to quit ahead of layoffs. Of course Goldman of all places can afford to give people free coffee, and there are certainly a million other more expensive costs they can cut. I think it's a whip-cracking measure, not a cost-cutting one.
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Jan 5, 2023 00:21
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An associate is telling me they literally still have free coffee? The fancy nespresso machines or something require a card swipe for a couple bux
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Jan 5, 2023 00:24
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Baddog posted:Coffee is for closers Such a classic scene https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkjfZctGMq8
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Jan 5, 2023 00:31
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Femtosecond posted:man coffee is cheap af too. I was thinking it is more a big deal if snacks, especially expensive snacks like cheese, go away. "Why are we giving our employees free, legal productivity-enhancing happydrugs? The horror!" GoGoGadgetChris posted:An associate is telling me they literally still have free coffee? The fancy nespresso machines or something require a card swipe for a couple bux This makes more sense, honestly. Stupid bait articles, if true.
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Jan 5, 2023 00:39
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The article is a little unclear, what does "coffee machine" mean in this context. There's a whole universe of machines from a Mr Coffee drip thing you load yourself, to a fully automated Starbucks in a box that'll make a halfway serviceable cappuccino
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Jan 5, 2023 01:47
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https://twitter.com/ecommerceshares/status/1611012527521157122 that’s a lot of employee comp
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Jan 5, 2023 16:08
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pmchem posted:https://twitter.com/ecommerceshares/status/1611012527521157122 Can someone translate this for people who don’t speak Wall Street? I get that it’s bad for META bagholders, but how bad? I want to know if I should have a sensible chuckle or a 
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Jan 5, 2023 17:06
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16% increase in share count. The company isn't getting any more valuable because of it, so the share price will fall accordingly.
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Jan 5, 2023 17:14
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fwiw big tech often offsets SBC with buybacks
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Jan 5, 2023 17:55
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I'm guessing that this is increasing the amount of available shares they have to give employees RSUs which is a major part of techbro compensation at FAANG type companies. It probably isn't all being handed out now or even as part of this year's compensation cycle. I always look at the stock price for my tech megacorp on the regular vesting dates where all employees get shares and the vast majority sell immediately or at least sell to cover their taxes and it doesn't seem to have any effect on the price that day. This won't and shouldn't have the same effect as something like a 16% dividend.
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Jan 5, 2023 18:00
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Arzakon posted:I'm guessing that this is increasing the amount of available shares they have to give employees RSUs which is a major part of techbro compensation at FAANG type companies. It probably isn't all being handed out now or even as part of this year's compensation cycle. I always look at the stock price for my tech megacorp on the regular vesting dates where all employees get shares and the vast majority sell immediately or at least sell to cover their taxes and it doesn't seem to have any effect on the price that day. This won't and shouldn't have the same effect as something like a 16% dividend. Yeah, it just gives you the potential of issuing shares is my understanding. AMC (lol) ran out of shares they could issue due to this admin issue. They had to create a second class of shares to get around this and sell to meme investors.
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Jan 5, 2023 18:10
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Arzakon posted:I'm guessing that this is increasing the amount of available shares they have to give employees RSUs which is a major part of techbro compensation at FAANG type companies. It probably isn't all being handed out now or even as part of this year's compensation cycle. Yep. The actual filing says that they expect it to last for 2-3 years (depending on share price, employee count, etc).
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Jan 5, 2023 18:22
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Agronox posted:Yep. The actual filing says that they expect it to last for 2-3 years (depending on share price, employee count, etc). Only lasting 2-3 years?? wow, I thought it might be for 5+ Yah, w/o very good growth, you can't dilute your company 16% every 2-3 years. employee compensation (more like C-suite compensation?) is perhaps a *bit* out of control.
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Jan 5, 2023 18:49
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I feel like I should know the answer to this, but where is the place to find ETFs/funds (i.e. institutional-class holders) of a given ticker? I have some pet theories / theses based around a few companies and I'm curious to see what smarter / bigger fish have done in terms of turning them into massive positions / Top 10 holding of a given ETF. I don't fully agree with what SOXX holds (as an example) and I probably have 70% of its holdings just as individual equities already, but I'd be curious in finding out what other big fish hold things like STMicro and Infineon. e: oh, lol, I guess iShares does it for you: https://www.ishares.com/us/products/investment-ideas
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Jan 5, 2023 20:40
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movax posted:I feel like I should know the answer to this, but where is the place to find ETFs/funds (i.e. institutional-class holders) of a given ticker? I have some pet theories / theses based around a few companies and I'm curious to see what smarter / bigger fish have done in terms of turning them into massive positions / Top 10 holding of a given ETF. Fund managers should have a list of their holdings for each ETF. For example: https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vox#portfolio-composition Alternatively if you wanted to check from each individual company I’m pretty sure they have to list their largest shareholders in their annual reports. I guess the issue there is that you wouldn’t know if Vanguard/BlackRock et al hold it because their analysts rate the gently caress out of it or if it’s just a component of their index funds.
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Jan 5, 2023 22:38
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gay picnic defence posted:Fund managers should have a list of their holdings for each ETF. Yeah, I am more looking for the latter: “Which ETFs hold $X”. I’ll give a read through some of the 10-Ks of companies I’m interested in and see if that sheds a bit of light.
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Jan 5, 2023 23:22
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movax posted:Yeah, I am more looking for the latter: “Which ETFs hold $X”. I’ll give a read through some of the 10-Ks of companies I’m interested in and see if that sheds a bit of light. https://etfdb.com/tool/etf-stock-exposure-tool/
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Jan 5, 2023 23:39
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movax posted:Yeah, I am more looking for the latter: “Which ETFs hold $X”. I’ll give a read through some of the 10-Ks of companies I’m interested in and see if that sheds a bit of light. for single stocks that's super easy, multiple sites let you do it. e.g. just replace AAPL with a ticker here https://etfdb.com/stock/aapl for multiple stocks in the same ETF, I can only find one pretty useful tool: https://www.etfchannel.com/finder/ if you find something better for that, tell us
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Jan 5, 2023 23:44
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Baddog posted:Only lasting 2-3 years?? wow, I thought it might be for 5+ Oh wow that is a bit surprising, I was expecting 10+ because vesting events don't seem to have any noticeable impact on price at any of these companies. With that data biannual vesting schedule has that being a 3-4% dilution twice a year (a little lower because new hires are on a different schedule but the total is the same). It isn't even just an executive issue, every $500K/yr senior developer is getting half of that in stock and we are all selling. I guess the brain broken SVPs getting the real money are holding long term though.
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Jan 6, 2023 00:18
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Anyone have a a general rule of thumb for selling appreciated stock gambles? A couple of my 2022 picks are at or near +100%, which seems like as good a time as any to take some profit. Its not a serious amount of money (<$1000 between the two), but they would both be short term gains which does eat up some of the potential profit. In case anyone thinks I'm here to post about my sick gains, I'll remind you I also invested in Intel
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Jan 6, 2023 23:41
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drk posted:Anyone have a a general rule of thumb for selling appreciated stock gambles? A couple of my 2022 picks are at or near +100%, which seems like as good a time as any to take some profit. Its not a serious amount of money (<$1000 between the two), but they would both be short term gains which does eat up some of the potential profit. Sell last week to use against those INTC losses in 2022? Sell now and bank some gains to make your 2023 bad short term investments not sting as bad?
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Jan 6, 2023 23:57
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