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Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa

Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:

Draisaitl has shot 20% over his last 4 or so seasons so it can be done.

Edit: Actually this season's 17.6% has dragged him all the way down to 19.7% over his last 326 games (since 2018-19)

Second edit: There are quite a few players that stick above 17% over the last 5 seasons (Schiefele and Point are another couple I always remember that are pushing 18% over that time, I'm sure there's others.)

Its definitely possible to shoot a higher % than is commonly thought as "sustainable". The tricky thing is that volume shooters generally don't shoot a high %, and Tage shoots A LOT, which is one of the reasons I thought the deal he signed was probably decent since his shooting % needed to fall under 10% for him not to be scoring 25 goals a season.

I mean yeah that's my point. He shoots a lot and he's getting particularly lucky right now and converting on more shots than he "should". I think he's a lock for 40+ goals a year moving forward. I just don't think this year, being on pace for 60+, is sustainable.

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Aphrodite
Jun 27, 2006

Jake Guentzel has hit 40 goals twice so I think Tage can do it regularly.



tage

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
Jake Guentzel is really good and also plays most of his minutes with Sidney Crosby. He's probably the physically weakest player in the NHL and I'm not sure he'll have a long career but he is a really good offensive player and a legit 30+ goal guy.

Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..
I feel like I want to see more than half a season of good Tage Thompson before I declare him a perennial forty goal scorer.

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

He's clowning the league though

Blackbelt Bobman
Jul 17, 2004

I don't need friends! I've been
manipulatin' you since the start!
All so I can something,
something X-Blade!


Part of the reason Tage broke out at the beginning of 2022 was his chemistry with Tuch. The Skinner-Thompson-Tuch line has incredible chemistry. Skinny is obviously a 30-goal, 50-60 point guy and Tuch has been incredible since he joined the team. I understand that other teams will try to adapt to their play to shut them down but as long as that line stays together, all three will be a threat. I wouldn’t be surprised if Thompson gets close to 100 points this season with Tuch having like 80 and Skinner breaking his career high from last year which iirc was 63 points.

The Sabres defense is a strange mixed bag. Dahlin-Samuelsson is a great pair although they were not very good last night. Dahlin has struggled lately after his hot start but I am sure he will score at least 50-60 points. He’s still at a point per game rn but I don’t think he will catch Karlsson baring any injuries. Samuelsson has been playing great defense, the team was way worse when he was injured. Owen Power is good and was playing well paired with Jokiharju, who is injured. They have some kid named Kale Clague paired with him right now who is actually pretty good. But then they have Bryson-Lyubushkin who are not very good, and that’s being generous. Lyubushkin was awful last night, he kept giving up the puck in the defensive zone and took a stupid penalty. I don’t understand Bryson. He isn’t good at offense or defense, he is kinda fast but that’s about it. They have other, better players like Pilut who got sent back to Rochester when Bryson came back from injury. It’s like they have a weird sunken-cost fallacy with him.

Their goaltending has been better lately but who knows what will happen. UPL has been excellent lately, winning his last five starts. Anderson is good when he plays like once a week. But Comrie is close to coming back from injury and then what? Are they going to send UPL back to Rochester with how good he has been playing? He was insanely good last night, in spite of giving up four goals. He made huge save after huge save, which was mostly due to bad defending. But he has gained confidence and his play continues to improve so I can’t see how they could replace him with Comrie at this point.

Edit:

Hand Knit posted:

I feel like I want to see more than half a season of good Tage Thompson before I declare him a perennial forty goal scorer.

He played really well for half of the 21-22 season and half of this season, so that’s like a full season :v: in calendar year 2022 he scored like 56 goals, obviously that isn’t the best measure because of the huge break in the middle but it’s still a lot.

Blackbelt Bobman fucked around with this message at 15:34 on Jan 4, 2023

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa

Hand Knit posted:

I feel like I want to see more than half a season of good Tage Thompson before I declare him a perennial forty goal scorer.

38 goals in 78 games last year. 30 in 36 so far this year, and he's shooting more. I think 100+ games is enough time to say he's probably capable of being a perennial 40 goal player. There are definitely players who have had high, short, peaks, but his age (he just turned 25) and the fact that the team will likely improve around him as time goes on make it seem like he's safe bet.

pseudodragon
Jun 16, 2007


Tage has obviously improved from what people thought he was earlier, but pencilling him in for 40 might be premature.

There's currently 5 guys in the league that average a 40 goal pace, Auston, Ovie, Stamkos, McD, Pasta. Drai just averages 37, but he's dragged down by a slow start.

Has Tage improved to the point where he is one of the best goal scorers of his generation?

The Dirty Burger
Aug 24, 2007

1st team all star
+
2nd degree manslaughter
=
3rd world clothing line
Tage rules, a 6’6 person shouldn’t be able to shoot the puck as good as he does

Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006

How Doers get more done
Fun Shoe
Scoring is inflated now so I'm not sure that averaging 40 is that unreasonable. There's like a trillion PPG players now. And there's like 20 players on pace for 40 goal seasons right now. Obviously not all of them will get there, but scoring is nuts right now. A few years ago being a PPG player would be considered the bench mark of an elite player. Now it's much less impressive.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
Like 20 guys hit 40 goals now, and I wouldn't be surprised if more do now that scoring is up. I think that this year is the outlier but that Tage could routinely hit 40 based on what we've seen of him. Top 20-25 is elite production but not necessarily "best goal scorer of his generation" territory.

stab
Feb 12, 2003

To you from failing hands we throw the torch, be yours to hold it high

Arivia posted:

Yikes that Florida line

Doesnt really matter that pick is Montreals lol

Thanks Ben Chiarot!

Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIÈRE IN ME
Rangers extend Vesey 2 years $800k

Cartoon Man
Jan 31, 2004


pseudodragon posted:

Tage has obviously improved from what people thought he was earlier, but pencilling him in for 40 might be premature.

There's currently 5 guys in the league that average a 40 goal pace, Auston, Ovie, Stamkos, McD, Pasta. Drai just averages 37, but he's dragged down by a slow start.

Has Tage improved to the point where he is one of the best goal scorers of his generation?

Made me want to check the list so far this year.



Holy gently caress I had no idea that Ovi’s catching up. The Rocket is probably McDavid’s to lose though. I can only imagine if Ovi gets another one at 37, holy poo poo. :corsair:

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X

Levitate posted:

Rangers extend Vesey 2 years $800k

lol

gonna be amazing watching the Rangers dumbass their way to zero Cups with the pile of young top end talent they got

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

UMich coach said that he would "bet his mortgage" on Luke Hughes being with the Devils after the end of the college season

Hamilton-Graves
Marino-Siegenthaler
Hughes-Severson

What a disgusting D

fawning deference fucked around with this message at 17:06 on Jan 4, 2023

Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIÈRE IN ME

Eric the Mauve posted:

lol

gonna be amazing watching the Rangers dumbass their way to zero Cups with the pile of young top end talent they got

That’s extremely reasonable for a bottom six winger who is pretty good defensive and can PK if they need him

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Cartoon Man posted:

Made me want to check the list so far this year.



Holy gently caress I had no idea that Ovi’s catching up. The Rocket is probably McDavid’s to lose though. I can only imagine if Ovi gets another one at 37, holy poo poo. :corsair:

For comparison, Gretzky never hit 40 goals again after turning 30. By the time he was 35, he was a 20-25 goal player

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Congratulations to Jimmy Vesey for finally being able to get an apartment on a year lease

Aphrodite
Jun 27, 2006

In Jersey, maybe.

whatis
Jun 6, 2012

WeaponX
Jul 28, 2008



Eric the Mauve posted:

lol

gonna be amazing watching the Rangers dumbass their way to zero Cups with the pile of young top end talent they got

Rangers make a ton of dumbass decisions, this is not one of them. Vesey has played very solidly for no money. Who is Vesey taking time away from playing? Plays bottom-six minutes and PK. NYR is finally not over-paying for that role (ie Goodrow, Blais, etc)

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
Ok I've got to come clean and admit that I confused Vesey with Blais. Imagine if they actually paid Blais $800K a year hahahahaha :suicide:

WeaponX
Jul 28, 2008



Eric the Mauve posted:

Ok I've got to come clean and admit that I confused Vesey with Blais. Imagine if they actually paid Blais $800K a year hahahahaha :suicide:

Blais needs to be put on a plane with a bribery pick and a one-way ticket to Arizona ASAP

Arivia
Mar 17, 2011

stab posted:

Doesnt really matter that pick is Montreals lol

Thanks Ben Chiarot!

…that’s how the sadness chart works. It’s not just making the playoffs or not, it’s also whether you’ll likely get a high lottery pick (that your team hasn’t already traded away). So Florida is getting very “sad” because they’re falling out of playoff position AND they’ll have nothing to show for it. Conversely very bad teams with their first round pick aren’t very high on the chart.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
The chart says there's a zero percent chance of the Bruins being sad, which sounds correct to me.

Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIÈRE IN ME

WeaponX posted:

Blais needs to be put on a plane with a bribery pick and a one-way ticket to Arizona ASAP

Subban might have killed his career, he looks slow as gently caress since coming back from that destroyed ACL.

It's possible he could have been a decent bottom six hitter who pots some goals but he hasn't looked like that players since coming back from injury.

I'm sure Gallant thinks if he just gives Blais enough icetime he'll round back into form...

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
tage is the most eyetest motherfucker of all-time, I mean just watch that big donkey toe drag and snipe with impunity and you know he's socking in 40

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
Pretty sure Lindros was the most eye-test motherfucker of all time

CBJSprague24
Dec 5, 2010

another game at nationwide arena. everybody keeps asking me if they can fuck the cannon. buddy, they don't even let me fuck it

Shouldn't there have been some announcement as to if anyone claimed Vrana by now?

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
Yeah waivers start at noon EST and teams have 24 hours. So I guess he cleared?

Mr. Fish
Sep 13, 2017

INLAND EMPIRE — This is a team with a lot of past, but little present. And almost no future.

CBJSprague24 posted:

Shouldn't there have been some announcement as to if anyone claimed Vrana by now?

I think the deadline is 2pm EST? So there's still time for Lamiorello to wake up from his post-martini power lunch nap

BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

Deadline was 2pm. And Vrana cleared. Red Wings fans breathe a collective sigh of relief. More time for Vrana to get back, and room for Fabbri.

Schremp Howard
Jul 18, 2010

What attitude problem?
I’m shaky on waiver rules, can you trade them later if you claim them waivers? I know buyouts and offer sheets have weird rules, but if you were a basement dweller with cap space it wouldn’t hurt to claim him and give him easy spots to put up points and then flip for a pick at the deadline with 50% retained.

Matt Zerella
Oct 7, 2002

Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)
That's a legit great deal for Vesey. 50k raise for him and a contract you can hide in Hartford if needed (provided he passes waivers).

BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

Schremp Howard posted:

I’m shaky on waiver rules, can you trade them later if you claim them waivers? I know buyouts and offer sheets have weird rules, but if you were a basement dweller with cap space it wouldn’t hurt to claim him and give him easy spots to put up points and then flip for a pick at the deadline with 50% retained.

Technically yes, but generally waiver picks have no trade value. And this was weird, because despite the cap hit, Vrana should have positive value, the whole Wings fanbase response was a collective "WHAT" to this news. This had to involve some behind-the-scenes GM stuff; either Yzerman had something worked out and it was agreed the circumstances warranted letting Vrana pass through waivers, Vrana has some real issues and it's league knowledge, or Yzerman made a bet that nobody was in a position to take on a $5.2M player that isn't in game shape yet.

CBJSprague24
Dec 5, 2010

another game at nationwide arena. everybody keeps asking me if they can fuck the cannon. buddy, they don't even let me fuck it

Schremp Howard posted:

I’m shaky on waiver rules, can you trade them later if you claim them waivers? I know buyouts and offer sheets have weird rules, but if you were a basement dweller with cap space it wouldn’t hurt to claim him and give him easy spots to put up points and then flip for a pick at the deadline with 50% retained.

CBJ traded Jussi Jokinen to Vancouver as part of the Thomas Vanek deal after claiming him.

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

HAHA! WOOOOOOO WOOO!
Fun Shoe

Levitate posted:

That’s extremely reasonable for a bottom six winger who is pretty good defensive and can PK if they need him

he’s been very very good. he’s big, he might have taken gear (his skating and strength are leagues better than they were years ago), he can play top six in a pinch as a forechecker, he’s playing great on the PK, he’s been very consistent. turned out to be a great signing. if he keeps it up this will be a crazy bargain. he’s been another Goodrow. he’s perfect for a third line, but he’s also above average as a fourth liner. ideally we can go into the playoffs with something like:

Kreider-Zibanejad-Kakko
Panarin-Trocheck-Kane
Lafrieniere-Chytil-Kravtsov
Motte/Gauthier-Goodrow-Vesey

that would be sick! that would be one of the better fourth lines in the league. a 3rd pair D to make Harpur the 7th D would be great, too.

Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIÈRE IN ME

DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:

he’s been very very good. he’s big, he might have taken gear (his skating and strength are leagues better than they were years ago), he can play top six in a pinch as a forechecker, he’s playing great on the PK, he’s been very consistent. turned out to be a great signing. if he keeps it up this will be a crazy bargain. he’s been another Goodrow. he’s perfect for a third line, but he’s also above average as a fourth liner. ideally we can go into the playoffs with something like:

Kreider-Zibanejad-Kakko
Panarin-Trocheck-Kane
Lafrieniere-Chytil-Kravtsov
Motte/Gauthier-Goodrow-Vesey

that would be sick! that would be one of the better fourth lines in the league. a 3rd pair D to make Harpur the 7th D would be great, too.

how are they getting Kane without giving up Kravtsov or Lafrieniere or Chytil or something? you know chicago is gonna ask for them

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Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X

Schremp Howard posted:

I’m shaky on waiver rules, can you trade them later if you claim them waivers? I know buyouts and offer sheets have weird rules, but if you were a basement dweller with cap space it wouldn’t hurt to claim him and give him easy spots to put up points and then flip for a pick at the deadline with 50% retained.

If you wanted to get a pick for taking half Vrana's salary, you very likely could simply have called Stevie and he'd have given you one and you can keep Vrana too.

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