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Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Bar Ran Dun posted:

that they need to buy what are essentially cruise missiles is a strong indication of their lack of a current ability to produce them for themselves.

they’ve got large stocks, of specific things like tanks and artillery, but seem to have issues with the ability to produce as flows things like these missiles.

it’s a problem the US might eventually have too. like a decade plus worth of production of anti tank missiles has been sent over out of stocks . the supply chain to replace them generates like 1000-2000 a year and we sent well over 10,000.

the Russians buying these cruise missiles is an indication the internal supply chains they have for building their own aren’t generating, aren’t working.

The problem is assuming because they are buy some missiles that they aren't generating their own at the same time. It is true they probably can't bombard continuously with only their own chain, but there isn't much evidence they are only using Iranian missiles.

If anything the West has been continually surprised the Russians keep on building their own missiles at the same time.

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Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




here’s another way to say it.

I think Iran can replace those drones. they’ll make more. other posters have talked at length off their internal productive capacity in aviation.

how long will it take Russia to replace those SU35s (or can they replace them?)

Tankbuster
Oct 1, 2021
No russia can't replace those planes that they make for export.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




how many have ever been built?
how many of the existing order intended for Egypt were diverted to Iran?

151 and 24.

for comparison almost 900 f35s have been made.

Tankbuster
Oct 1, 2021
yes, a loitering missile with wings is less complex than a modern fighter aircraft and the russian economy is smaller than the american one.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Tankbuster posted:

yes, a loitering missile with wings is less complex than a modern fighter aircraft and the russian economy is smaller than the american one.

Also, the US and its allies seem to be going all inning one fighter.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Russia has lost two squadrons so about 24 su-35 in the war. if they transfer 24 to Iran that’s like nearly half gone between lost and traded away of all that they had (110)

Wheeee
Mar 11, 2001

When a tree grows, it is soft and pliable. But when it's dry and hard, it dies.

Hardness and strength are death's companions. Flexibility and softness are the embodiment of life.

That which has become hard shall not triumph.

how many mission ready f-35s are there

Real hurthling!
Sep 11, 2001




Wheeee posted:

how many mission ready f-35s are there

the mission is racking up hanger hours to bill for

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.

Frosted Flake posted:

I would guess that “Cruise Missile” is so synonymous with American power projection in the media and public imagination that begrudging that Iran has the capability is a bridge too far.

There was a very compelling article a few years back that Cruise Missiles effectively occupy the same psychological space in the American Empire that Gunboats did in the British Empire.

I don't think so, Iran has more typical cruise missiles and they are reported on as such. For example:
https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-missiles-russia-air-campaign-ukraine/32095930.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-hardline-rulers-see-missile-systems-vital-deterrent-2022-07-12/

The distinction behind a cruise missile and a suicide drone is a real practical one, but much like many other distinctions, it has no firm line.

Ardennes posted:

How is any of that about “Russian weakness” rather they are simply capitalizing on an opportunity? I guess you could say they should have made their own drones but I think that was more doctrinal blindness than anything.

TBF Iran is a global leader in military drones.

Bar Ran Dun posted:

essentially cruise missiles

One big difference is the cost.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Russia continuously produces aircraft for their own use and export, including supporting Chinese aviation through producing engines and components, assisting China produce aircraft and assemblies under licence. What's the argument here?

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Frosted Flake posted:

Russia continuously produces aircraft for their own use and export, including supporting Chinese aviation through producing engines and components, assisting China produce aircraft and assemblies under licence. What's the argument here?

it’s a huge percentage of the total production since production started. I’ve seen it vary between 24 to 60 su-35 for the drones in articles. they’ve been making them for 14 years and made 151 in that time period.

are they giving these to the Iranians out of existing stocks or are the Iranians accepting future production that lol they won’t likely get started on for a decade (also lol)

Danann
Aug 4, 2013

Bar Ran Dun posted:

it’s a huge percentage of the total production since production started. I’ve seen it vary between 24 to 60 su-35 for the drones in articles. they’ve been making them for 14 years and made 151 in that time period.

are they giving these to the Iranians out of existing stocks or are the Iranians accepting future production that lol they won’t likely get started on for a decade (also lol)

They're Egypt's orders that got cancelled before delivery.

quote:

Combat aircraft originally produced for Egypt under a deal that was torpedoed by the United States

Western intelligence sources who monitor security deals between Iran and Russia say Moscow will soon provide a full squadron of fighter jets to the Islamic Republic. 

It will apparently be 24 Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets, originally produced for Egypt under a deal that was torpedoed by the United States. The Russians were looking for buyers for the unsold surplus, and it looks like Tehran will be getting those planes very soon. According to an intelligence report, Iranian pilots are already training on these planes.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

America's allies must be so grateful their procurement can be sunk at a moment's notice.

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe
absolute fealty is just the price you pay for freedom

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC

Bar Ran Dun posted:

it’s a huge percentage of the total production since production started. I’ve seen it vary between 24 to 60 su-35 for the drones in articles. they’ve been making them for 14 years and made 151 in that time period.

are they giving these to the Iranians out of existing stocks or are the Iranians accepting future production that lol they won’t likely get started on for a decade (also lol)

Sukhoi only produces the Su-35 when it has orders for it.

Sukhoi began production for Egypt in May of 2020 and the first five Su-35s rolled off the line about a month in a half or two months later.

Although as Danann points out Iran is probably getting the planes from Egypt's cancelled order.

Grognan
Jan 23, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

Bar Ran Dun posted:

the Russians buying these cruise missiles is an indication the internal supply chains they have for building their own aren’t generating, aren’t working.

or you want twice as many missiles which seems prudent politically

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




OhFunny posted:

Sukhoi only produces the Su-35 when it has orders for it.

Sukhoi began production for Egypt in May of 2020 and the first five Su-35s rolled off the line about a month in a half or two months later.

Although as Danann points out Iran is probably getting the planes from Egypt's cancelled order.

yeah I knew about Egypt, I thought I had mentioned it in a previous post.

anyway RAND seems to think they aren’t making poo poo for about a decade. then again it’s RAND so ehh.

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.

OhFunny posted:

Although as Danann points out Iran is probably getting the planes from Egypt's cancelled order.

That's what I've seen reported.

Filthy Hans
Jun 27, 2008

by Fluffdaddy

(and can't post for 10 years!)

Wheeee posted:

how many mission ready f-35s are there

¯\_(ツ)_/¯


https://www.forbes.com/sites/erictegler/2022/12/28/the-f-35-cant-seem-to-stop-making-newsselect-f-35s-are-grounded-again/

quote:

The JPO made a statement to Defense News yesterday confirming the grounding in which it also revealed that the guidance applies to all three variants (F-35A/B/C) of the fighter. The Office declined to say how many aircraft are affected but a report by The Times of Israel indicates that many F-35s may be affected. On Christmas day the paper relayed the news that the Israeli Air Force announced that 11 of its F-35Is (an Israeli-specific version of the F-35A) have been grounded.

While a “preliminary assessment of the risk” stemming from the F-35B accident in Fort Worth spurred the JPO’s vaguely defined grounding, the problem may be related to a tube used to transfer high pressure fuel to the airplane’s Pratt & Whitney F135 engine according to an anonymous source cited by Defense News.


I thought the grounding was just the F-35B due to the recent botched STOL landing, an engine problem is a universal problem

Filthy Hans has issued a correction as of 08:38 on Jan 2, 2023

Palladium
May 8, 2012

Very Good
✔️✔️✔️✔️
hey the F-35 is an excellent plane when deployed in a completely risk-free environment

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe
yea, it works completely as intended as long as it never has to fly

vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011

Weka posted:

Looking around, 1700 Shaheeds is the number that Russia has supposedly already received. The Su-35s are brand new. I'm going to go out on a limb and say it's not a straight swap so much as general trade / parts of a larger deal.

Also found this cool quote:
Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak said Iran "blatantly humiliates the institution of international sanctions"

I don't see why you can't do that with a cruise missile, the circle would be larger but the higher speed still allows the missile to reach it's target in a similar or shorter time frame. And the first I saw 'suicide drone' was in reference to Israeli Harpy and Haarops drones when Azerbaijan invaded Artsakh, although I'm sure it predates it.
The Shaheeds for instance I don't believe really qualify as a loitering munition, they operate on inertial guidance and GPS or Glonass and aren't usually controllable after firing, although I vaguely recall reading about a few being outfitted with the capability.

afaik the Shahed-136 in particular has both a cruise mode and a directly controllable loitering mode, but the loitering mode has a much shorter range (like 150 km) so they're almost exclusively being used in cruise mode for the deep attacks on civilian infrastructure.

I still think it's worthwhile making the distinction between cruise missiles and loitering munitions because even when they're fulfilling similar purposes they tend to have very different profiles. Cruise missiles tend to be bigger, faster, longer ranged, more expensive, carry larger warheads, and have limited control capacity during flight. Even when you end up discussing ones that have similar capacities (recent generations of the Tomahawk have some loitering capabilities, for example, and the Shaheds are being used without their loitering capabilities most of the time) the other distinctions tend to remain.

I'll admit that it's a distinction without a real difference in some cases but it's useful to have more specific terms to easily differentiate between the two in capacities other than command and control.

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?
how long does it take to build a 4.5/5th generation plane from scratch (assuming manufacturing expertise/capacity and available resources)

atelier morgan
Mar 11, 2003

super-scientific, ultra-gay

Lipstick Apathy

indigi posted:

how long does it take to build a 4.5/5th generation plane from scratch (assuming manufacturing expertise/capacity and available resources)

that would require the tooling to survive a single order rather than being immediately destroyed to make more sales for the next model

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003

Cerebral Bore posted:

yea, it works completely as intended as long as it never has to fly

Doing war stuff was always a secondary mission

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?

atelier morgan posted:

that would require the tooling to survive a single order rather than being immediately destroyed to make more sales for the next model

ok assume that to you freakin nerd

Palladium
May 8, 2012

Very Good
✔️✔️✔️✔️

indigi posted:

how long does it take to build a 4.5/5th generation plane from scratch (assuming manufacturing expertise/capacity and available resources)

in the current state of the west now? forever

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/davidpugliese/status/1610402591187546112

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019


The team’s code name was Talon Anvil :eyepop:

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Well that isn't the first hit piece on Talon Anvil.

New York Times put out two or three of them last year.

Which branch of the US government is trying to gently caress over which other branch with this publicity?

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006





whole lotta commissioned officers never take the test. especially statistically significant ones. that trend is that becoming more common over time.

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe
if you wanna show that those folks are dumb all you gotta do is point out that they voluntarily joined the marines

Filthy Hans
Jun 27, 2008

by Fluffdaddy

(and can't post for 10 years!)

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1610665014679031808
https://twitter.com/MrsSNorman/status/1610693382841696256

those perfidious persians

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy
Lol good luck isolating Iran's over-land trade routes. If they wanted they could just buy spare parts from the Taliban :v:

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

Rutibex posted:

Lol good luck isolating Iran's over-land trade routes. If they wanted they could just buy spare parts from the Taliban :v:

Taliban ftw

Palladium
May 8, 2012

Very Good
✔️✔️✔️✔️

capitalists shocked by profit motivation happened

many such cases

ModernMajorGeneral
Jun 25, 2010
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/leaked-senators-letter-warns-aukus-deal-could-harm-us-submarine-industry-20230106-p5cary.html

Leaked senators’ letter warns AUKUS deal could harm US submarine industry

quote:

Leaked senators’ letter warns AUKUS deal could harm US submarine industry

“Over the past year, we have grown more concerned about the state of the US submarine industrial base as well as its ability to support the desired AUKUS SSN [nuclear submarine] end state,” Reed and Inhofe said in their letter to the White House, first reported by US website Breaking Defence.

“We believe current conditions require a sober assessment of the facts to avoid stressing the US submarine industrial base to the breaking point.

“We are concerned that what was initially touted as a ‘do no harm’ opportunity to support Australia and the United Kingdom and build long-term competitive advantages for the US and its pacific allies, may be turning into a zero-sum game for scarce, highly advanced US SSNs.”

What trusting America gets you; we already spent 800 million dollars to cancel our French submarines for the privilege of the opportunity to maybe get American submarines

This seems like US losing WW3 material - your most slavish close ally pays to undermine their own security so they can pay your industry to supply material, reinforcing their dependency on you, and the arms are being used to defend your interests and fight your main rival (again, at your ally's expense), and the response is now 'uhh, thanks for your support but sounds too hard sorry'

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Ardennes
May 12, 2002

ModernMajorGeneral posted:

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/leaked-senators-letter-warns-aukus-deal-could-harm-us-submarine-industry-20230106-p5cary.html

Leaked senators’ letter warns AUKUS deal could harm US submarine industry

What trusting America gets you; we already spent 800 million dollars to cancel our French submarines for the privilege of the opportunity to maybe get American submarines

This seems like US losing WW3 material - your most slavish close ally pays to undermine their own security so they can pay your industry to supply material, reinforcing their dependency on you, and the arms are being used to defend your interests and fight your main rival (again, at your ally's expense), and the response is now 'uhh, thanks for your support but sounds too hard sorry'

Yeah, and the first Collins class is projected to decommissioned 3 years from now and there doesn’t seem to be any type of replacement anywhere close to being ready at this point. Australia will just have to “figure it out on its own.”

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