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Cpt. Mahatma Gandhi posted:Interestingly, CSPAN's chyron was already saying McCarthy had lost when it was only 5 defections There are only 434 members present....does 217 count as a majority or do they need 50% +1?
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Jan 6, 2023 19:19
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I did not see Gosar coming, I'll freely admit.
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Jan 6, 2023 19:19
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delfin posted:I did not see Gosar coming, I'll freely admit. Neither did he, by the dejected way he said it.
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Jan 6, 2023 19:20
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Will they try to get it to a plurality win? or would there be too much of a risk of someone messing it up and giving the win to Jeffries?
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Jan 6, 2023 19:21
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Youth Decay posted:Will they try to get it to a plurality win? or would there be too much of a risk of someone messing it up and giving the win to Jeffries? That would require a majority vote to amend the rules, which means it would need Dem support.
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Jan 6, 2023 19:22
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Are there enough nonvotes now to push the threshold down and get McCarthy over the line?
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Jan 6, 2023 19:22
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Cpt. Mahatma Gandhi posted:Neither did he, by the dejected way he said it. I am still trying to process what the gently caress that exit was. I have never seen a human move like that.
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Jan 6, 2023 19:22
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Youth Decay posted:Will they try to get it to a plurality win? or would there be too much of a risk of someone messing it up and giving the win to Jeffries? They have a better shot at flipping two HFC holdouts than forcing a rules change at this point.
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Jan 6, 2023 19:22
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After Vote 12, the holdouts are Biggs R-AZ Boebert R-CO Crane R-AZ Gaetz R-FL Good R-VA Harris R-MD Rosendale R-MT Youth Decay posted:Will they try to get it to a plurality win? or would there be too much of a risk of someone messing it up and giving the win to Jeffries? You need to win a majority vote to change it to a plurality vote, which I doubt McCarthy can get
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Jan 6, 2023 19:22
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They'll try at least one more now the wind is blowing McCarthy's way, if they can't get the wingnuts to fold by tonight they might try plurality if this afternoon's swingers hold
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Jan 6, 2023 19:23
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Roy and Gosar are surprising. Wonder what they got.
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Jan 6, 2023 19:23
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TLM3101 posted:I am still trying to process what the gently caress that exit was. I have never seen a human move like that. I missed it. Anyone got a clip?
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Jan 6, 2023 19:23
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Only 432 voters this time, so half is 216 and McCarthy had 214. Close!
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Jan 6, 2023 19:23
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This is truly the best way to govern a country.
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Jan 6, 2023 19:24
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smackfu posted:Only 432 voters this time, so half is 216 and McCarthy had 214. Close! Buck, Hunt, who's the third missing? EDIT: Oh right, the dead guy. Lemniscate Blue fucked around with this message at 19:27 on Jan 6, 2023 |
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Jan 6, 2023 19:25
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TGLT posted:Roy and Gosar are surprising. Wonder what they got. A screening of the footage of Madison Cawthorn face-loving his cousin, as a reminder.
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Jan 6, 2023 19:25
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Saw these flips coming. That Hannity interview with Boebert I posted last night really showed how disorganized the holdout coalition was. It was pathetically obvious that they have no viable alternative candidate. Their strategy seems to be just stonewalling and humiliating McCarthy until he gives in and steps aside so that a viable compromise candidate can emerge. But McCarthy seems to realize that no matter how many miles of poo poo he has to crawl through and humiliation he has to suffer, as long as he keeps going, and never steps aside, there will be no space for a viable compromise candidate to emerge and he will eventually be elected Speaker due to there simply being no other options, and he will have his Shawshank moment. Only 7 holdouts left. Should just be a matter of time now. Social Psychology suggests enough of the holdouts will cave (or compromise by voting present) to the peer pressure eventually. -Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 19:28 on Jan 6, 2023 |
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Jan 6, 2023 19:25
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smackfu posted:Only 432 voters this time, so half is 216 and McCarthy had 214. Close! They would need 50%+1, so 217 assuming the current absences don't return to the chamber. Still, 3 votes off is a hell of a lot better than where things ended last night, so I suspect they will pursue more votes pretty rapidly today with their first signs of real progress.
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Jan 6, 2023 19:26
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smackfu posted:Only 432 voters this time, so half is 216 and McCarthy had 214. Close! drat, too close. Need this to continue on into next week at a minimum.
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Jan 6, 2023 19:26
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Lemniscate Blue posted:Buck, Hunt, who's the third missing? One of the Dems didn't vote this time. Trone?
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Jan 6, 2023 19:28
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Lemniscate Blue posted:Buck, Hunt, who's the third missing? VA-4 is vacant as Donald McEachin died on November 28
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Jan 6, 2023 19:28
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The other risk for McCarthy is if he concedes too much to the point of losing support from the non-batshit side.
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Jan 6, 2023 19:28
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Lemniscate Blue posted:I missed it. Anyone got a clip? Sorry. I was too weirded out. The closest thing I can think of is someone who's just lost their spouse and gotten drunk.
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Jan 6, 2023 19:28
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smackfu posted:Only 432 voters this time, so half is 216 and McCarthy had 214. Close! The WaPo vote tracker has it accurate. AtraMorS fucked around with this message at 19:31 on Jan 6, 2023 |
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Jan 6, 2023 19:28
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Youth Decay posted:The other risk for McCarthy is if he concedes too much to the point of losing support from the non-batshit side. Gets Speaker, can’t manage to pass rules package… that would be fun.
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Jan 6, 2023 19:31
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I AM GRANDO posted:A screening of the footage of Madison Cawthorn face-loving his cousin, as a reminder. If they had that kind of material they'd have already threatened them with it. I'm hearing on CNN there's a deal for refusing any clean debt ceiling increase. lmao if they think McCarthy'll stick to his word but it sounds like that might have been what got them over.
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Jan 6, 2023 19:31
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Better question, can he hold onto all those questionable flips (Gosar, etc) through a couple more votes?
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Jan 6, 2023 19:33
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Basically what we're going to see today, and maybe the next time the gavel in, is who can be personally bought out of their opposition and who is here to sacrifice McCarthy to Moloch. We're almost certain that there are between 5 and 8 hardliners who will only relent when Keven McCarthy's head is mounted above the doors to the Chamber. So as we settle in for the unending merriment of McCarthy's public humiliation, what do you think are the baseline things that the Democrats will hold out for in a hypothetical agreement to get someone into the chair? My guess is that the only absolute must for them is a guarantee that the debt ceiling raise gets brought to the floor. Everything else is negotiable. After that I'd guess that the order of asks by them in decreeing likelihood to be accepted by the mythic non-Kevin are
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Jan 6, 2023 19:33
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Even after they finally elect McCarthy (who is probably the least poo poo option among all of the poo poo the GOP has nominated), might as well leave this thread open for the next 2 years because they're gonna do this poo poo and dumber poo poo for every thing that gets proposed.
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Jan 6, 2023 19:38
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Do the Dems really need to argue in favor of the debt ceiling increase? It seems like most of the moderate Rs would grumble and be forced to support it anyway because it would cause massive economic issues and they are still beholden to businesses and billionaires. And it seems like the House would be blamed for it.
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Jan 6, 2023 19:39
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koolkal posted:Do the Dems really need to argue in favor of the debt ceiling increase? It seems like most of the moderate Rs would grumble and be forced to support it anyway because it would cause massive economic issues and they are still beholden to businesses and billionaires. Moderate Republicans still want to use the Debt Ceiling as a bludgeon to cut spending on programs that democrats favor
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Jan 6, 2023 19:42
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koolkal posted:Do the Dems really need to argue in favor of the debt ceiling increase? It seems like most of the moderate Rs would grumble and be forced to support it anyway because it would cause massive economic issues and they are still beholden to businesses and billionaires. A clean increase would pass with a
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Jan 6, 2023 19:45
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gently caress it, Democrats should demand that the first order of business is to just cancel the debt ceiling.
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Jan 6, 2023 19:48
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koolkal posted:Do the Dems really need to argue in favor of the debt ceiling increase? It seems like most of the moderate Rs would grumble and be forced to support it anyway because it would cause massive economic issues and they are still beholden to businesses and billionaires. Anything that passes the senate with 60 votes (like a clean debt ceiling increase) would easily pass a house vote, but the freedom caucus want changes that would let them stop the vote from happening
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Jan 6, 2023 19:49
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AtraMorS posted:Unless I'm missing something, the C-span vote count is wrong and is giving one extra vote to McCarthy. Trone (D), Buck, and Hunt (Rs) are not voting for various reasons (Buck and Hunt are out of town for medical/family reasons; don't know about Trone), and then there's the dead guy. That's 4 total absences from the 435 possible, leaving 431 named votes cast this time. Trone had scheduled surgery and is now back. https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1611434437408919562
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Jan 6, 2023 19:49
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Gyges posted:Basically what we're going to see today, and maybe the next time the gavel in, is who can be personally bought out of their opposition and who is here to sacrifice McCarthy to Moloch. We're almost certain that there are between 5 and 8 hardliners who will only relent when Keven McCarthy's head is mounted above the doors to the Chamber. I think Gaetz is the only irredeemable hardliner who will burn it all and that's just because the guy takes absolutely none of this seriously. Even him they could probably flip if they came up with something to give him that he thought was even funnier than him continuing to troll everyone. As for the Dems, is it accurate that any backroom concessions or promises McCarthy makes to anyone are just based on his word alone and there's no real legal basis that any of those promises be kept? If so then the Dems would be idiots to accept any deal from McCarthy. McCarthy's biggest shame is that he wants everyone on his side to like him so much, yet they all, even his supporters, actually hate him. For the GOP one of the worst crimes is working with the Democrats. At the same time, one of best ways to score points with the GOP is to gently caress over and humiliate the Democrats. So McCarthy would be incredibly incentivized to go back on any deal he made with the Democrats and then smugly pretend it was all part of some chessmaster genius strategy to gently caress them over and advance Conservative ideals.
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Jan 6, 2023 19:50
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Piell posted:Trone had scheduled surgery and is now back. LOL what a kick in the nuts that is
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Jan 6, 2023 19:51
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-Blackadder- posted:As for the Dems, is it accurate that any backroom concessions or promises McCarthy makes to anyone are just based on his word alone and there's no real legal basis that any of those promises be kept? Correct, which is why no one thinks the Dems will accept any deal from McCarthy. Especially when "Republicans flail" is such a good reward for not accepting a deal.
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Jan 6, 2023 19:53
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https://twitter.com/petridishes/status/1611429078934118401
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Jan 6, 2023 19:54
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-Blackadder- posted:As for the Dems, is it accurate that any backroom concessions or promises McCarthy makes to anyone are just based on his word alone and there's no real legal basis that any of those promises be kept? The house doesn't have rules until after there's a speaker, they would put the promises in the rules. The freedom caucus negotiations are mainly over house rules too.
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Jan 6, 2023 19:54
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