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Rigel
Nov 11, 2016

This is another free'ing kind of pleasant vote for our side: Pelosi isn't our side in the house any more. Now it is Hakeem Jeffries from New York. Will he be just some random big loud dumb disappointment? I dunno, maybe. But.... maybe not? He seemed good tonight.

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I AM GRANDO
Aug 20, 2006

Is he not going to mention fent?

fez_machine
Nov 27, 2004
Last time all Americans visited you had to hide

I AM GRANDO
Aug 20, 2006

This guy sucks poo poo. At least Boehner was an alcoholic.

fez_machine
Nov 27, 2004
boring as hell art criticism to boast he has famous painting in his office

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

fez_machine posted:

boring as hell art criticism to boast he has famous painting in his office

Any and every famous painting in that office would’ve been in restoration for the entirety of his tenure as Speaker ‘due to damage incurred on January 6th’ if I were the clerk.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK
So are they going to try and ram the rules through, or do we have an Outback Steakhouse of Representatives for the weekend?

Echophonic
Sep 16, 2005

ha;lp
Gun Saliva

Gyges posted:

So are they going to try and ram the rules through, or do we have an Outback Steakhouse of Representatives for the weekend?

They adjourned until 5PM Monday.

cant cook creole bream
Aug 15, 2011
I think Fahrenheit is better for weather

I AM GRANDO posted:

Why did McCarthy want this again?

He was already occupying the office and moving is such a hassle.

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos

I AM GRANDO posted:

Why did McCarthy want this again?

It's His Turn.

McCloud
Oct 27, 2005

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

so we're gonna have a debt default in, what, july unless Biden mints the coin?

Can someone explain this to me? If all the dems vote to raise the ceiling, won't they only need like half a dozen GOP votes to raise the debt ceiling? That seems pretty doable, doesn't it?

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

McCloud posted:

Can someone explain this to me? If all the dems vote to raise the ceiling, won't they only need like half a dozen GOP votes to raise the debt ceiling? That seems pretty doable, doesn't it?

The Speaker has control over which bills hit the floor. The Democrats can try and force a clean bill to the floor, but they're not going to get any help, thus not having the votes, until the last possible second. Instead McCarthy and the loons are going to try and hold the world economy hostage in exchange for Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, and other spending cuts.

McCloud
Oct 27, 2005

Ok so it's procedural nonsense then, got it. But that raises a different question, won't every single donor be on the phone screaming at the republicans to get it passed? Isn't that what happened last time, the donors got pissed and their polls dropped like rocks so they gave up? Like, are they betting that the dems will fold?

Edit: Wouldn't they get hell even if they did somehow got medicare cuts? Surely that's unpopular with their own constituents?

McCloud fucked around with this message at 09:53 on Jan 7, 2023

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

McCloud posted:

Ok so it's procedural nonsense then, got it. But that raises a different question, won't every single donor be on the phone screaming at the republicans to get it passed? Isn't that what happened last time, the donors got pissed and their polls dropped like rocks so they gave up? Like, are they betting that the dems will fold?
Yes. The Senate GOP got the message and they said it doesn't work and is bad politically.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

McCloud posted:

Ok so it's procedural nonsense then, got it. But that raises a different question, won't every single donor be on the phone screaming at the republicans to get it passed? Isn't that what happened last time, the donors got pissed and their polls dropped like rocks so they gave up? Like, are they betting that the dems will fold?

Edit: Wouldn't they get hell even if they did somehow got medicare cuts? Surely that's unpopular with their own constituents?

You're correct that almost all the "smart money", including the megacorps and the industry groups, view a debt ceiling crash with horror. The concern is that a sufficient portion of the Republicans in the House (and to some degree their constituents, including a nonzero number of megadonors) are so ideologically poisoned and/or stupid and/or self-destructive that they will still try to wreck the economy. Some unevenly distributed portion of the Republican base is in a media bubble so impenetrable to reality and resistant to correction that even actions that directly harm them don't reliably or broadly cause them to change their positions.

Eiba
Jul 26, 2007


So, accepting that failing to raise the debt ceiling is insane political and economic suicide... isn't the new speaker currently very beholden to the most insane and politically nihilistic wing of his party?

Like, isn't it conceivable that any last minute deal McCarthy made could have involved some variation of, "sure, I'll destroy the US and world economy for you, whatever you say, just let me win"?

TLM3101
Sep 8, 2010



Eiba posted:

So, accepting that failing to raise the debt ceiling is insane political and economic suicide... isn't the new speaker currently very beholden to the most insane and politically nihilistic wing of his party?

Like, isn't it conceivable that any last minute deal McCarthy made could have involved some variation of, "sure, I'll destroy the US and world economy for you, whatever you say, just let me win"?

Why yes, yes he is, indeed, beholden to the most insane and nihilistic wing of the party! They dragged his carcass through 15 rounds of humiliation to make sure he utterly caved. Looks like it's option A after all. He'll have the FC's collective hands up his rear end for the entire Congress.

As for what deals he made and which he'll keep? That is what we'll find out on Monday, when they bring the rules to a vote. So that'll be fun! And, uh. Potentially a big enough poo poo-show that this thread should probably remain open, honestly.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Eiba posted:

So, accepting that failing to raise the debt ceiling is insane political and economic suicide... isn't the new speaker currently very beholden to the most insane and politically nihilistic wing of his party?

Like, isn't it conceivable that any last minute deal McCarthy made could have involved some variation of, "sure, I'll destroy the US and world economy for you, whatever you say, just let me win"?

Yeah, that's pretty much what it looks like. The degree to which McCarthy will be held to those promises- or that the likes of Gaetz will honor their own words- remains unclear.

Torrannor
Apr 27, 2013

---FAGNER---
TEAM-MATE
There's still absolutely nothing the nutters can do to stop and actual majority of the House to vote in a clear debt ceiling increase. That would necessitate finding 6 non-insane Republicans willing to vote against the rest of their party with all the Democrats.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

McCloud posted:

Ok so it's procedural nonsense then, got it. But that raises a different question, won't every single donor be on the phone screaming at the republicans to get it passed? Isn't that what happened last time, the donors got pissed and their polls dropped like rocks so they gave up? Like, are they betting that the dems will fold?

The donors are fine with cutting entitlements and holding the debt ceiling hostage. They only start freaking out when the Republicans start putting pressure on the trigger of the gun to the hostage's head. The issue is that the Republicans keep getting closer and closer to killing the hostage every time.

With that in mind, the Republicans are fresh of the lesson that hostage taking works and is very fun. Further the most insane lunatics of the party have most of the power now. Said lunatics being the ones quite open about always wanting to see what actually happens if we don't raise the debt limit.

quote:

Edit: Wouldn't they get hell even if they did somehow got medicare cuts? Surely that's unpopular with their own constituents?

Yes, but they've gotten away with it every other time, and the people at the wheel now have veins filled with the kool-aide of trickle down and bootstrapping.

Gyges fucked around with this message at 11:23 on Jan 7, 2023

TLM3101
Sep 8, 2010



Gyges posted:

The donors are fine with cutting entitlements and holding the debt ceiling hostage. They only start freaking out when the Republicans start putting pressure on the trigger of the gun to the hostage's head. The issue is that the Republicans keep getting closer and closer to killing the hostage every time.

They got really close in 2011, in fact, resulting in the US losing a point on its credit-rating for the first time ever. And in 2013, they tried to use the debt-ceiling to get Obamacare defunded, but that backfired.

And now, the chucklefucks of the Tortilla Coast have apparently demanded that taking this hostage isn't just an option, but mandatory.

We're gonna see some poo poo, is what I believe.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Torrannor posted:

There's still absolutely nothing the nutters can do to stop and actual majority of the House to vote in a clear debt ceiling increase. That would necessitate finding 6 non-insane Republicans willing to vote against the rest of their party with all the Democrats.

The problem isn't that in this game of chicken, we fear the Republicans won't eventually blink. The problem is that the last couple times they managed to exchange paint with the other car, and all they've gleaned from it is that this time the other side is totally going to blink first. Even with the certainty that there are at least 6 sane in a very technical sense Republicans willing to do a clean increase, they are incentivized by all measures possible to also play chicken. Cutting a deal with the Democrats before absolutely necessary will only get them pilloried in right wing media and primaried from the right.

This is particularly problematic when we remember that this is a law that they have to pass. It has to pass both chambers with the exact same language and then be signed by Biden before it takes effect. You can't swerve at literally the last second, because the other 2 partners in legislation also have to do poo poo in order to avert disaster.

Cumdog Millionaire
Jul 21, 2022

Whoever told you not to kink shame had a shameful kink.
I was asleep. Did republicans take it on the 14th vote?
I saw 217 - 212 and 6 present. I thought it had to be 218?

Old James
Nov 20, 2003

Wait a sec. I don't know an Old James!

Cumdog Millionaire posted:

I was asleep. Did republicans take it on the 14th vote?
I saw 217 - 212 and 6 present. I thought it had to be 218?

It took 15 votes, but Mike McCarthy is the Speaker.

Timeless Appeal
May 28, 2006

Cumdog Millionaire posted:

I was asleep. Did republicans take it on the 14th vote?
I saw 217 - 212 and 6 present. I thought it had to be 218?
Kevin McCarthy is the speaker but in a Ship of Theseus kind of way.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Cumdog Millionaire posted:

I was asleep. Did republicans take it on the 14th vote?
I saw 217 - 212 and 6 present. I thought it had to be 218?
15th vote

Present votes lower the vote threshold.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK
Despite giving away almost everything but the title and the office, with some of the rules he's promised he may not even make it a full Liz Truss though.

Nobody got promised the office, right? That would be amazing if that was Gaetz' actual final price.

Cumdog Millionaire
Jul 21, 2022

Whoever told you not to kink shame had a shameful kink.
So, dems basically have a majority with 6 disgruntled congress members who didn't vote for Kevin Mcarthy?
In all seriousness, though, what does this mean for the future? Surely having 6 people unhappy with the current speaker and such a slim majority could be seen as a positive for dems right?

Spiffster
Oct 7, 2009

I'm good... I Haven't slept for a solid 83 hours, but yeah... I'm good...


Lipstick Apathy
Well how many of them support him for speaker but then will hear what he bent over backwards to get more people on board for his rules and go “no gently caress this”.

Old James
Nov 20, 2003

Wait a sec. I don't know an Old James!

Cumdog Millionaire posted:

So, dems basically have a majority with 6 disgruntled congress members who didn't vote for Kevin Mcarthy?
In all seriousness, though, what does this mean for the future? Surely having 6 people unhappy with the current speaker and such a slim majority could be seen as a positive for dems right?

It would almost be better for the Republicans if they were back in the Minority.

They have control of the House, so will take most of the blame for anything that does or doesn't happen. That control can be upended by any single member calling for a no-confidence vote in the Speaker (thus repeating the last couple of days). That control was bought with promises of pushing VERY UNPOPULAR legislation such as cutting entitlements in exchange for raising the debt ceiling.

My guess is nothing of substance will happen right up to this summer. As the debt ceiling approaches the House will pass a bunch of conditional bills cutting Social Security and Medicare which get rejected by the Senate. At the last moment McCarthy will push through a clean debt ceiling bill to avert disaster and then get the boot by Gaetz and Boebert.

Old James fucked around with this message at 13:34 on Jan 7, 2023

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Cumdog Millionaire posted:

So, dems basically have a majority with 6 disgruntled congress members who didn't vote for Kevin Mcarthy?
In all seriousness, though, what does this mean for the future? Surely having 6 people unhappy with the current speaker and such a slim majority could be seen as a positive for dems right?

Some misunderstandings here.
  • There are virtually no circumstances where the Democrats ever get 6 Republicans to help them reach a majority.
  • There are between 220 and 222 Republicans unhappy with the current Speaker. If a new Speaker is elected that number may go all the way down to 218.

But yes, from a pure gamesmanship perspective the Democrats have virtually unlimited positives from the Republicans spending 2 years making toddlers look mature while impeaching Joe Biden because of his son's dick.

Unfortunately there are going to be a couple or so instances where everyone in the country, probably even the world, is going to need the Republicans to actually do some governing. Things are looking slightly more promising on that front than our current efforts to avert Climate Change.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

Old James posted:

At the last moment McCarthy will attempt to push through a clean debt ceiling bill to avert disaster and then get the boot by Gaetz and Boebert.

Fixed. I'm not optimistic McCarthy could do that.

Piell
Sep 3, 2006

Grey Worm's Ken doll-like groin throbbed with the anticipatory pleasure that only a slightly warm and moist piece of lemoncake could offer


Young Orc
https://twitter.com/KateSullivanDC/status/1611627487712219136
https://twitter.com/KateSullivanDC/status/1611628603577434112

JesustheDarkLord
May 22, 2006

#VolsDeep
Lipstick Apathy
Let Burchett and Rogers fight at halftime of the third Saturday in October

Seth Pecksniff
May 27, 2004

can't believe shrek is fucking dead. rip to a real one.

I mean if they're already threatening to lay hands on each other over a speaker's vote I can't imagine what will happen when votes of consequence come around

Vegetable
Oct 22, 2010

Was it ever mooted that having the rebels convert their votes to “present” was a strategy? Because it seemed to come out of nowhere.

Archonex
May 2, 2012

MY OPINION IS SEERS OF THE THRONE PROPAGANDA IGNORE MY GNOSIS-IMPAIRED RAMBLINGS

Seth Pecksniff posted:

I mean if they're already threatening to lay hands on each other over a speaker's vote I can't imagine what will happen when votes of consequence come around

The thought is that Mccarthy, snake that he is, most likely stole Rogers position on the armed forces committee to give to that creepster Gaetz* or someone else in his anti american anti government faction.

Doesn't say much about actual votes, but holy poo poo did they throw at least one otherwise reliable member of the establishment under the bus to get Mccarthy in.


*Color me shocked that the guy who was under investigation for sex trafficking doesn't want the US government to exist in a functional capacity.

Cranappleberry
Jan 27, 2009
wow, putting officially sanctioned and legal congressional duels back in the rules for the first time since 1839 seems a bridge too far but I guess Mccarthy really wanted that post.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Vegetable posted:

Was it ever mooted that having the rebels convert their votes to “present” was a strategy? Because it seemed to come out of nowhere.

It's a strategy in that it let them technically give in without actually ever voting for McCarthy. It's the lunatic wing legislative version of maintaining your purity by soaking.

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Seth Pecksniff
May 27, 2004

can't believe shrek is fucking dead. rip to a real one.

Archonex posted:

The thought is that Mccarthy, snake that he is, most likely stole Rogers position on the armed forces committee to give to that creepster Gaetz* or someone else in his anti american anti government faction.

Doesn't say much about actual votes, but holy poo poo did they throw at least one otherwise reliable member of the establishment under the bus to get Mccarthy in.


*Color me shocked that the guy who was under investigation for sex trafficking doesn't want the US government to exist in a functional capacity.

If that's the case this is going to be absolutely ugly

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