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Willa Rogers posted:As of 2019 property taxes were $18k, lmao. They went down slightly during covid year 2020 but were still $17k. Cook County has been seeing 40-44% or greater increases to tax bills for incoming 2022. It's pretty bad, and the bills are coming in late, and the appeals process is so constrained by resources, and the sheer breadth of the disaster is amplified by two decades of cronyism only recently exposed and the course adjustment means fixing values that were artificially suppressed at the behest of aldermen and assessors looking to grease their palms. A colleague went from $7k to an estimated bill of $15k in just one year, and it's due to them adjusting his estimated value from ~$280k to ~600k due to the housing crisis -- on a 3br1.5ba 1400sqft cookie-cutter tri-level built at speed in the 1960s. His appeal was rejected because that's what the assessor claims is the market rate of his home, which while being true, you cannot base a once-in-three-year assessment on an inflated market gassed up by cheap money over the course of a decade -- unless you do! He has to get a lawyer to appeal his appeal to the board or ??? Illinois is lovely however edit: illinois is not lovely A Bad King has issued a correction as of 22:09 on Jan 11, 2023 |
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Jan 11, 2023 22:07
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Oh, yeah: I've been paying my clients' prop. tax bills + also hear my house-owning friends grumble. Pretty slick of them to delay sending out the bills by five months & coincidentally put the mailings after the november elections!
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Jan 11, 2023 22:09
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My clients get letters on the reg from (non-Burke or crony) lawyers soliciting appeals; they charge a flat (fairly low) percentage of the amount saved (and nothing if the appeal fails) so it's worth considering.
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Jan 11, 2023 22:11
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Willa Rogers posted:Oh, yeah: I've been paying my clients' prop. tax bills + also hear my house-owning friends grumble. It's really bad and while I get it -- we do want to pay our teachers a good salary and ensure their pensions are fulfilled (because we promised) and we do like our park districts and we have to pay for all of these nice things, but you cannot throw a mandatory-or-lose-roof five-figure increase at people! How does anyone live anymore.
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Jan 11, 2023 22:12
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CRUSTY MINGE posted:Not yet. Someday. I'm sorry I slept on this response! I haven't had time to sit at my Posting Station. I was looking at the "smaller" lots of 5-10 acres. was trying to find land with a grandfathered well already on-site after reading that approval for a new well might be a crapshoot if the aquifers are in rough shape. like you mentioned: others are trying to grab the water.. That level of uncertainty coupled with the fact that my career very much keeps me in the city means it's just an idea I was playing with in lieu of the mayhem of the Denver market. Still keeping an eye out in case I *crack ping* and need to just disappear and do spirograph art for the rest of my life. Thanks for the info and offers to help on the setup! Off-grid living would be a hell of a project. I've successfully made space for all of those guys except a mountain lion (but I understand that not seeing them at all is ideal). heading home from work one night and coming within 30 feet of a moose doe was the closest I'd come to any of the wildlife simply because I didn't see her until I was that close (way too loving close. moose are loving huge).
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Jan 12, 2023 04:04
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19 o'clock posted:I'm sorry I slept on this response! I haven't had time to sit at my Posting Station. No worries. There are parts of the valley that are restricted from drilling wells. Typically those homes are serviced by water truck (Wildhorse Mesa comes to mind). Like you said, for the aquifers. The northern part is restricted for other reasons, mostly the hot springs. Villa Grove to Hooper area is spotted with hot springs. Even with cheap land out here, it pays to have a local realtor walk you through how it's zoned and what you can do. There are more than a few here that will take the time to help out. The aquifer everyone wants is the sealed one further below. The closer to surface aquifers rise and fall pretty regularly, and there are places you might just not hit water for a few hundred feet. There are estimates of around a billion acre feet of water below us, though. That's why the front range is eyefucking every corner of the valley. Actually running into larger wildlife out here, besides deer, isn't common, but it's always worth keeping in mind. There are signs posted along the Rio Grande in town to remind people that mountain cats are seen infrequently in the area, because they follow the river in from the mountains. You will see deer everywhere though. Pronghorn are more common east of the Sangres outside the valley. Wild horses seem to like the east side of the valley, but do wander all around. When you're ready to accept chaos and watch for UFOs, the Valley will be waiting. It's a beautiful place, with enough comforts to make the winters tolerable, but still very wild. Summers are typically dry. The sunrises and sunsets are just remarkable. But there's only 20k people in an area the size of Israel, so expect the crazy to be eccentric and the property crime to be rampant. It can be very hard living.
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Jan 12, 2023 04:54
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A Bad King posted:Cook County has been seeing 40-44% or greater increases to tax bills for incoming 2022. It's pretty bad, and the bills are coming in late, and the appeals process is so constrained by resources, and the sheer breadth of the disaster is amplified by two decades of cronyism only recently exposed and the course adjustment means fixing values that were artificially suppressed at the behest of aldermen and assessors looking to grease their palms. oh hey I handle the appeals boards in a texas county, we do them every year instead of every three. your colleague needs good evidence or else that new appraisal will stand. it's valued at what a reasonable person would pay for it on jan 1, 2022, near the height of the market. it's not too bad for places that appraise once a year but if that's the value for the next three it's worth the appeal. don't send the family lawyer, look up firms in the county who use appraisers to twist the numbers in his favor at the appeals panel "court". the district is on one side, the owner or their representative on the other, and I'm the judge. if my value is appealed by one side or the other it goes to big boy court and nobody really does that except big time commercial properties or extremely litigious idiots Willa Rogers posted:My clients get letters on the reg from (non-Burke or crony) lawyers soliciting appeals; they charge a flat (fairly low) percentage of the amount saved (and nothing if the appeal fails) so it's worth considering. edit yeah this. one person can bring a stack of forty appeals with them and knock them all out. it's way more efficient and successful than self-representers i say swears online has issued a correction as of 06:09 on Jan 12, 2023 |
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Jan 12, 2023 06:06
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A Bad King posted:Cook County has been seeing 40-44% or greater increases to tax bills for incoming 2022. It's pretty bad, and the bills are coming in late, and the appeals process is so constrained by resources, and the sheer breadth of the disaster is amplified by two decades of cronyism only recently exposed and the course adjustment means fixing values that were artificially suppressed at the behest of aldermen and assessors looking to grease their palms.
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Jan 12, 2023 06:44
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Paradoxish posted:Housing prices will come down somewhere around 5-15% off peak, maybe a little more in extremely hot markets, maybe a little less if the fed pivots sooner than expected. They'll bounce back as soon as rates decrease, so the net effect is that there will never actually be a point where housing is more affordable. I don’t think this is totally true in high CoL regions. Anecdotally I know a few folks in Seattle who are essentially trying to unload properties at net-zero from 3 years ago because their stock vests have halved and now the cost burden of owning that home looks a lot worse. They have also gotten used to home life via having kids or just settling down, and want to use their paid principal to find somewhere more family friendly. Couple this with general deflation in the tech job market and I think we could [hopefully] see a substantial loss of value in these coastal metros. Of course it could all be eaten by developers speculating on the next boom, taking advantage of lower prices, etc, but I don’t think the general trend of FAANG junior millionaires paying 1.5+ mil for a two bedroom can continue with the current market conditions.
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Jan 12, 2023 07:22
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TheSlutPit posted:Couple this with general deflation in the tech job market and I think we could [hopefully] see a substantial loss of value in these coastal metros. Of course it could all be eaten by developers speculating on the next boom, taking advantage of lower prices, etc, but I don’t think the general trend of FAANG junior millionaires paying 1.5+ mil for a two bedroom can continue with the current market conditions. as someone who was born in the bay area and stupidly never escaped, i hope so but i also somehow don't expect so. even in 2007-8 prices didn't really go down at all and flat-lined. some of the insanity of the 2021-2 bubble has fallen down a few percent, but that was an absurd bubble pimple over an already inflated bubble
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Jan 12, 2023 07:50
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I wish anybody knew actual poo poo about what home prices are going to do. but alas nobody does so I will stay frozen with indecision
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Jan 12, 2023 09:24
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Ornery and Hornery posted:I wish anybody knew actual poo poo about what home prices are going to do. No one really knows, but expecting something like a nationwide 50% crash in median sales price means you're expecting something that's never happened before:  Median home prices dropping back to pre-pandemic levels would be an unprecedented drop and uncharted waters for the US economy. Obviously individual markets shoot up and collapse all the time, but expecting housing prices to just collapse nationwide is one of the doomiest and most far-fetched things that people in CSPAM believe. That little dip after 2008 represents millions of people losing their homes and an unimaginably huge upward wealth transfer.
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Jan 12, 2023 09:46
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Lol that immense jump at the end of the graph
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Jan 12, 2023 13:10
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God that 2020 spike is disgusting
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Jan 12, 2023 13:18
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Ornery and Hornery posted:I wish anybody knew actual poo poo about what home prices are going to do. theyll continue to go up
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Jan 12, 2023 13:32
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BIG-DICK-BUTT-gently caress posted:theyll continue to go up they might also just roughly stay the same for a while, which is also a thing that happens sometimes
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Jan 12, 2023 13:34
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Paradoxish posted:they might also just roughly stay the same for a while, which is also a thing that happens sometimes incorrect 
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Jan 12, 2023 13:39
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Ornery and Hornery posted:I wish anybody knew actual poo poo about what home prices are going to do. well, at least we all know what rent prices are going to do
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Jan 12, 2023 13:40
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Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:Lol that immense jump at the end of the graph Home prices jacking up suddenly also seems to correlate pretty strongly with the months/years right before a recession.
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Jan 12, 2023 13:42
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i say swears online posted:oh hey The lawyer route is why we're in this mess in some respects. The folks running the assessor's office, or adjacent to them in the Machine, were partners in real estate firms who specialized on the appeals processes. It was an excellent and profitable racket, until the feds finally got off the couch and found someone in on the take who did an obviously bad thing and wore a wire for leniency so the prosecutor could capture mycrimes.mp4.
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Jan 12, 2023 13:54
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Ornery and Hornery posted:I wish anybody knew actual poo poo about what home prices are going to do. Housing will never be cheaper again than it is today, hth
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Jan 12, 2023 15:07
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if anyone was wondering what I thought about housing prices I think that they're just going to take a break for a bit, get some rest, maybe read a book or try writing some poetry and then get back on that grind when they've got the energy back inside of them
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Jan 12, 2023 15:10
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The rate of increase is going to slow down but not go below 0. Capital will treat this like a crisis.
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Jan 12, 2023 15:18
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Paradoxish posted:No one really knows, but expecting something like a nationwide 50% crash in median sales price means you're expecting something that's never happened before: normal poo poo
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Jan 12, 2023 17:52
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TheSlutPit posted:Couple this with general deflation in the tech job market and I think we could [hopefully] see a substantial loss of value in these coastal metros. Of course it could all be eaten by developers speculating on the next boom, taking advantage of lower prices, etc, but I don’t think the general trend of FAANG junior millionaires paying 1.5+ mil for a two bedroom can continue with the current market conditions. It would take a widespread economic downturn that sees tons of these people out of work for an extended period of time, forcing them into default on their loans, before significant volumes of houses get put on the market. And despite recent FAANG layoffs, the labor market is still generally strong right now. Basically if you want housing prices to fall significantly you have to root for the kind of mass unemployment and recession the Fed is begging for now. edit: obviously the other alternative is massive new construction but that never seems to be the focus of this thread compared to rooting for a crash bawfuls has issued a correction as of 20:32 on Jan 12, 2023 |
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Jan 12, 2023 19:10
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Hi, I'm Liberal Logicman and I'm here to tell you that high home prices are good, and affordable housing is bad.
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Jan 12, 2023 20:02
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High home prices are terrible, you just need policy to fix those prices. Relying on the market (ie, some kind of price crash) means that you're rooting for a situation that absolutely will not make homes more "affordable," even if they sell for much less.
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Jan 12, 2023 20:15
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Salt Fish posted:Hi, I'm Liberal Logicman and I'm here to tell you that high home prices are good, and affordable housing is bad. oh dang you hold every elected office everywhere. v impressive
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Jan 12, 2023 20:17
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bawfuls posted:edit: obviously the other alternative is massive new construction but that never seems to be the focus of this thread compared to rooting for a crash The Fed isn't out there saying it wants to build more houses, it is saying wants to combat inflation and that has led to terrible economic situations in the past. No one in this thread is looking for JPow to play their rusty trombone either, because that isn't going to happen.
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Jan 12, 2023 20:48
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there could absolutely be a massive crash in home prices but it'd be tied to a global economic crisis that means you and a ton of other folks lose their job and can't buy or can't secure a loan to buy one, so what's the point. high cost areas can no longer be considered a 'bubble' any more than canadas 3 decades long 'bubble' - its just what a market is. somehow people here in california are able/willing to spend 55+% of their pretax income on housing. i don't get it and it seems like a recipe to catastrophe...then again literally every marker in the American economy feels like it should result in catastrophe but things just keep chugging along.
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Jan 12, 2023 22:19
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MickeyFinn posted:The Fed isn't out there saying it wants to build more houses, it is saying wants to combat inflation and that has led to terrible economic situations in the past. No one in this thread is looking for JPow to play their rusty trombone either, because that isn't going to happen. The Fed actually caused a rescission in new home building by raisin rates. there are a loving ton of previously scheduled new construction that got cancelled, as well as a ton of new construction that got started when they were ejaculating money all over everyone's faces. i dunno who is buying these 600k 1200sq ft homes with next to no property but someone absolutely is.
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Jan 12, 2023 22:22
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Ammanas posted:The Fed actually caused a rescission in new home building by raisin rates. there are a loving ton of previously scheduled new construction that got cancelled, as well as a ton of new construction that got started when they were ejaculating money all over everyone's faces. my friend and her husband bought a 1350 SF home in a nice seattle neighborhood for 1.1M, but only because her parents gave her starbucks stock lol
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Jan 12, 2023 22:29
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Ammanas posted:i dunno who is buying these 600k 1200sq ft homes with next to no property but someone absolutely is. Around here it's retirees. We're a "top retirement destination," so I guess they come from all over.
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Jan 12, 2023 22:50
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actionjackson posted:my friend and her husband bought a 1350 SF home in a nice seattle neighborhood for 1.1M, but only because her parents gave her starbucks stock lol yeah im pretty sure its 60% 'parents gave us 200k for a house' , 10% bay area high earners relocating, and 30% 'well we want a house and my agent says we can refinance in 6 months so our payment will only be $2.5k instead of $3600 so lets do it!!!!'
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Jan 12, 2023 23:37
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bawfuls posted:The thing is in order for housing prices in these places to actually fall a substantial amount, the people in them have to have a reason to sell. Most of the people in these houses either bought or refinanced during the recent low rates, so they have every incentive NOT to sell, as whatever new loan they take out elsewhere will have a much higher rate. If you're a FAANG worker sitting on a 2.8% mortgage while prevailing rates are well over 6%, you're going to do absolutely everything you can to stay in that house if you get laid off. You'll run up credit card debt, take early 401k withdrawal penalties, borrow/steal money from your boomer parents, rent out bedrooms, deliver doordash, etc before you sell. Because selling means you either buy a different place that's way smaller/further from jobs at a high interest rate, or you're pushed back into the rental market where costs are sky high. I mostly agree with this, but I think you underestimate the proportion of homeowners who have been sitting on property for 10-15 years and their ability to drive a major sell off. Someone who bought a home before 2015 in an attractive neighborhood could eat a 20% drop-off from the peak in a sale and still walk away with a substantial profit, and they have every incentive to exit once their homes are no longer printing money. Meanwhile the demand—largely driven by young moneyed techies selling stock to cover mortgage payments beyond their means—diminishes due to a deflation of the tech bubble. I certainly don’t think it’s a sure thing but the whole market has seemed like an unstable system for quite a while and a self-reinforcing downturn is not out of the question.
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Jan 13, 2023 01:49
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Paradoxish posted:No one really knows, but expecting something like a nationwide 50% crash in median sales price means you're expecting something that's never happened before: the difference here is that sfhs as a speculative estate asset didnt really start as a real thing until like 00 and only really took off post-08. now that houses are bank sheet assets and not just poo poo people own and buy, things might get more cyclical
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Jan 13, 2023 01:53
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Ammanas posted:yeah im pretty sure its 60% 'parents gave us 200k for a house' , 10% bay area high earners relocating, and 30% 'well we want a house and my agent says we can refinance in 6 months so our payment will only be $2.5k instead of $3600 so lets do it!!!!' 0.2% of the market calculation can also include the FIRE folks who live like paupers for a decade and clip coupons until they have a $200k money pile to throw into a Beaver Island "homestead."
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Jan 13, 2023 01:57
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except that the supply of them is still going to out pace demand for several decades. and B each slow down seem to make new builds slower going forward.
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Jan 13, 2023 01:58
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A nice little 688 sq foot shoebox home on a 4500sqft plot got torn down and they're pouring concrete foundation on a 4000sq ft 2.5 story monster in the dead of January, right next to my quadpack apartment bldg. The amount of yard this new construction is leaving the owners is smaller than a chicken run.
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Jan 13, 2023 02:01
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TheSlutPit posted:I mostly agree with this, but I think you underestimate the proportion of homeowners who have been sitting on property for 10-15 years and their ability to drive a major sell off. Someone who bought a home before 2015 in an attractive neighborhood could eat a 20% drop-off from the peak in a sale and still walk away with a substantial profit, and they have every incentive to exit once their homes are no longer printing money. Meanwhile the demand—largely driven by young moneyed techies selling stock to cover mortgage payments beyond their means—diminishes due to a deflation of the tech bubble. I certainly don’t think it’s a sure thing but the whole market has seemed like an unstable system for quite a while and a self-reinforcing downturn is not out of the question. I think you underestimate the degree to which all these sub-3% rates people got recently incentivize them to NOT sell outside of the most dire circumstances. If you currently live in a house you bought 10-15 years ago, that means you bought in 2008-2013. That likely means: -you are more financially stable than the large majority of Americans, since you had the income/capital to buy during the last crisis and have been able to stay in that place since then -you have a good credit score from the above and from paying a mortgage for 10-15 years without default -you saw your home appreciate 30-50% before the recent covid-run up -you probably refinanced during covid with a rate below 3% and you understand how significant that is having paid a mortgage for over a decade, maybe you even did a cash-out refi that still resulted in lower payments All of this means that prices would have to collapse to well below the ~2010 low before someone like this would be underwater Some numbers for my own curiosity... Lets say you bought in a costal city like LA in early 2010 for $500k (double the national median but not unreasonable for LA at that time). At that time you definitely had to have 20% down, and you got a rate around 5%. So your monthly loan payments were about $2150 and you were able to pay this without going into default or bankruptcy for the following decade. Fast forward to late-2020. Your outstanding loan balance is now about $315k, and your house has appreciated to about $725k (based on the FRED chart posted on this page). Rates are below 3%. Lets say you do a cash out refi at 2.9% and 50% equity. Your new loan is ~$360k, giving you about $40k in cash AND your new monthly payments are only $1500. You probably make more than you did in 2010, since you maintained stable employment over that period and during the pandemic. Now it's 2023 and you owe ~$342k on a house valued at ~$1M, and your payments are a laughable $1500/month. Rent on an equivalent home is like $6k. What could motivate you to sell during an upcoming downturn? You'd have to suffer MAJOR financial stress, much worse than even the deepest and broadest recession in the past 50 years (a time remember, when you were gainfully employed and able to take advantage of falling home prices). Your house would have to plummet in value more than 65% before you'd be underwater on it. Is such an event possible? Of course, but if it gets that dire, no one who's currently struggling to afford a home is going to be in better shape to buy than this hypothetical person who bought 10-15 years ago. bawfuls has issued a correction as of 03:30 on Jan 13, 2023 |
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Jan 13, 2023 02:35
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