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th3t00t posted:To a team that hasn't made the playoffs in 12 years, coming within 4 points with 4 games in hand in January is "flirting with a playoff spot", even though they immediately struck out and wasted the games in hand. It’s always, “if only x had happened” with them. If only they had good goaltending early on. Now they’re getting decent goaltending but if only they were playing better defense/scoring 6 goals a game. If only Skinner hadn’t cross-checked Guentzel in the face they might have won one of those two games against the Pens. If only UPL hadn’t gotten sick last week they might have won last Tuesday. They need to improve in some areas but consistency is the biggest one. Some days they go out and play like the best team in the league against teams higher than them in the standings. Then they turn around and play games like yesterday’s or last week’s against the Flyers. They still have games in hand on the Islanders and Caps but they would have to have a lot of luck for things to go their way (like one of those teams and the Penguins all making GBS threads the bed) while they give 110% every game and… yeah. They are in the middle of a stretch where they are playing 13 games in 22 days and they’ve gone 2-4-0 through the first six, including losses to teams they are trying to stay above in the standings  Edit: I heard they’re trying to trade prospect G Eric Portillo, who might not sign with them after he finishes college this year. Which sucks, he was a big reason they had a good goaltending pipeline. They’re also supposedly looking to trade Hinostroza somewhere because he’s barely played this season and it seems unfair to just scratch him every night when they’ve kinda sorta got four lines going. Blackbelt Bobman fucked around with this message at 20:31 on Jan 17, 2023 |
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Jan 17, 2023 20:29
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Kanes back and Yamo's brain is mush again
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Jan 17, 2023 20:32
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Salivating that the Coyotes' might get one of the top-5 forwards available in the draft to go with the rest of the extremely strong set of scoring prospects already there. Man, imagine the Coyotes being able to score 3.7 goals per game.
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Jan 17, 2023 20:37
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Pungry posted:Salivating that the Coyotes' might get one of the top-5 forwards available in the draft to go with the rest of the extremely strong set of scoring prospects already there. Man, imagine the Coyotes being able to score 3.7 goals per game. Imagine how many draft picks they'll get for him at the end of his ELC
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Jan 17, 2023 20:45
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T-Bone posted:e: More teams not outright tanking for Bedard continues to be the most insane loving thing ever, especially when the next 3 guys all look great too. The NHL had this figured out in loving 1984! Just absolute lunacy that bad teams are trying to ice competitive teams this year I think it was Jeff Marek who made the point that it’s all well and good to say your team should tank for Bedard, but tanking requires someone else to trade your cast-off players to. The problem is that the majority of NHL teams are tight to the cap already. The whole league is incredibly constipated, and the teams with cap space are mostly the ones trying to tank already! So there’s really not much room to try and make a move to actually go ahead and tank, regardless of who you are or who you have to sell.
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Jan 17, 2023 20:53
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th3t00t posted:To a team that hasn't made the playoffs in 12 years, coming within 4 points with 4 games in hand in January is "flirting with a playoff spot", even though they immediately struck out and wasted the games in hand. Where would I rate the Penguins - huge breath and 20,000 words later . Nah. I'd rate the Penguins as disappointing followed by unbelievably inconsistent. The nuts and bolts on that we're skipping here. You want to talk points though? Ok. Happy to do that. Buffalo has 16 regulation wins. That is 1 less regulation win than the Flyers. You want to talk about OT points? Buffalo has 4 OT wins and 1 shootout win to go along with 2 OT losses. That's 7 OT games vs Pittsburgh's 8. Where the Pens have 6 losses. The problem isn't Buffalo not getting enough OTLs the problem is Buffalo doesn't win enough games period. Here's what a wrote a few days ago on the 13th: rex rabidorum vires posted:Buffalo is tied with Florida. Are behind both Detroit and the Islanders. That's before you even talk about overtaking Washington or Pittsburgh. Where winning every game in hand still leaves the Sabres 2 points short of overtaking the Caps. Buffalo is closer to Montreal as the 2nd worst team in the east than they are to Pittsburgh in the WC2 spot. Better luck next year unless Florida fires Maurice. In that time Buffalo has played 2 and won 1. Pens played 3 and won 1. Islanders played 2 and gained 3 points. Washington played 2 won 1. Florida played 2 won 2. Good news you're a little further from Montreal. Bad news you're still closer to them (5 points) than Pittsburgh or Washington (6 points). Since the start of the New Year Buffalo ranks 13th of the 16 teams in the East in a pile with Pittsburgh, Montreal, Islanders, and Carolina. Washington has 7pts in 7 games putting them mid-table for 2023. on December 31st of 2022 Buffalo had 34 games played with 38 points and were 6 points with 3 games in hand on NYR/NYI and 2 games in hand on the Pens. At no point were Buffalo '4 points with 4 games in hand'. Washington with 39 games played had a 9 point lead on December 31st. That's as close as Buffalo got. Which is to say....they didn't. Buffalo is a fun team to watch. They have, allegedly, a very good prospect pool and if they can develop that they might be competitive. However, Buffalo needs at least one team in the Atlantic to implode *and* Florida to continue to employ Paul Maurice to even sniff at their division. After that they need Pittsburgh and/or Washington to fall of their respective cliffs and not have improvements from Detroit or the Isles. Everything went Buffalo's way for the first half of the year...still a ways short.
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Jan 17, 2023 21:02
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Arivia posted:I think it was Jeff Marek who made the point that it’s all well and good to say your team should tank for Bedard, but tanking requires someone else to trade your cast-off players to. The problem is that the majority of NHL teams are tight to the cap already. The whole league is incredibly constipated, and the teams with cap space are mostly the ones trying to tank already! So there’s really not much room to try and make a move to actually go ahead and tank, regardless of who you are or who you have to sell. This is exactly right. Only 12 teams have more than a million in cap space right now. Half of those 12 have less than $3M in space. Only one of the teams with $3M+ (Minnesota) is likely to go to the playoffs, and they have their own impending cap issues. No one has the space to take on a good player. The teams that could be part of a 3-way-trade to eat salary are Arizona, Anaheim, and Buffalo, all of which have $13M or more in space. It doesn't do anything for Arizona or Anaheim to help their competition tank more. Buffalo could, theoretically, but they have a ton of young players they're going to have to pay in the next year or two (like Cozens and Dahlin) and it's probably smarter to have every dollar available that they can. Those guys won't eat up the whole cap but you don't want to be left with peanuts to give them a supporting cast either.
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Jan 17, 2023 21:03
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I say this every year but man I was so pissed when the Rags traded up to get Miller and the Leafs ended up with Rasmus Sandin
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Jan 17, 2023 21:03
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Is Bedard supposed to be a better prospect than McDavid
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Jan 17, 2023 21:07
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Maybe it's changed in the era of being able to watch highlights online, but one of the issues with prospect evaluation is that you are also basing it on a small sample. I like Pronman. He's not always right, but I haven't come across a prospect evaluator who is. You should approach it more as a guide rather than take his projections as fact.
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Jan 17, 2023 21:16
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Is Bedard supposed to be a better prospect than McDavid I don't think I've seen anyone say "better than McDavid" but ai imagine he will perhaps be better than Matthews.
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Jan 17, 2023 21:17
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rex rabidorum vires posted:Where would I rate the Penguins - huge breath and 20,000 words later . Nah. I'd rate the Penguins as disappointing followed by unbelievably inconsistent. The nuts and bolts on that we're skipping here. Eh they were inconsistent early on, they started like 7-3-0 and then lost 8 in regulation in a row and have been up and down. They won 6 in a row last month but since Jan 1st they’re 3-5-0. t00t was saying that if they had gotten to OT in some of those one-goal regulation losses they’d be elevated a bit by pity points but they have been awful at tying the game late. They’ve won one game while trailing going into the third? Maybe even 0. We were all hoping they could sneak into that final playoff position by outscoring their problems but again since Jan 1st they have been pretty bad, their PP was 1st and it keeps dropping and they aren’t really scoring much at 5-on-5 either! They aren’t out of the race but as you and I both said, a lot of things would have to go their way including playing well every game.
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Jan 17, 2023 21:21
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Is Bedard supposed to be a better prospect than McDavid He's supposed to be like the third best prospect in the last few decades. Behind McDavid and Crosby but better than everyone else. This is all according to Canadian hockey media guys of course, who tend to discount anyone who isn't Canadian, but it's still pretty high praise.
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Jan 17, 2023 21:21
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fawning deference posted:I don't think I've seen anyone say "better than McDavid" but ai imagine he will perhaps be better than Matthews. Most have been saying best since McDavid so that would imply better than Matthews.
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Jan 17, 2023 21:23
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Bedard has been seen as that ultra high tier of prospect forever, and dominating the World Juniors solidified that. I think he's seen a bit lower than Crosby/McDavid but it's not a big margin.
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Jan 17, 2023 21:30
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Arivia posted:I think it was Jeff Marek who made the point that it’s all well and good to say your team should tank for Bedard, but tanking requires someone else to trade your cast-off players to. The problem is that the majority of NHL teams are tight to the cap already. The whole league is incredibly constipated, and the teams with cap space are mostly the ones trying to tank already! So there’s really not much room to try and make a move to actually go ahead and tank, regardless of who you are or who you have to sell. In the Flyers case it's a pretty simple "don't hire a coach known for giving a bump to lovely moribund rosters in his first year in charge" Also there are plenty of teams in the like, Sharks case for instance who would take Timo Meier, or Hertl last year. Or Konecny. These kinds of players could all be easily traded today. There are some bad contracts you're not going to get rid of but those are generally helping your tank along anyway (with the funny exceptions like EK, where San Jose is gonna apparently play hardball with him just enough to put them out of Bedard range). Jamwad Hilder posted:This is exactly right. Only 12 teams have more than a million in cap space right now. Half of those 12 have less than $3M in space. Only one of the teams with $3M+ (Minnesota) is likely to go to the playoffs, and they have their own impending cap issues. No one has the space to take on a good player. The teams that could be part of a 3-way-trade to eat salary are Arizona, Anaheim, and Buffalo, all of which have $13M or more in space. It doesn't do anything for Arizona or Anaheim to help their competition tank more. Buffalo could, theoretically, but they have a ton of young players they're going to have to pay in the next year or two (like Cozens and Dahlin) and it's probably smarter to have every dollar available that they can. Those guys won't eat up the whole cap but you don't want to be left with peanuts to give them a supporting cast either. It shouldn't be zero sum though, that's a problem in NHL thinking. As a doormat, if you've gotta eat some lovely contract in a potential trade, who cares? Bad teams should be willing to take bad assets if they can receive futures / guarantee a better position in a potentially historic draft. T-Bone fucked around with this message at 22:48 on Jan 17, 2023 |
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Jan 17, 2023 22:08
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There’s scuttlebutt in the Athletic about O’Reilly and the Leafs, and even if making the cap work wasn’t impossible it really feels like Nick Foligno 2.0 in terms of paying a kings ransom for somebody a season or two past it. Like the odds that dude breaks or just sucks for the few weeks the team would need him are so high.
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Jan 17, 2023 22:57
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Koopa Kid posted:There’s scuttlebutt in the Athletic about O’Reilly and the Leafs, and even if making the cap work wasn’t impossible it really feels like Nick Foligno 2.0 in terms of paying a kings ransom for somebody a season or two past it. Like the odds that dude breaks or just sucks for the few weeks the team would need him are so high. I mean, sure, but Ryan O’Reilly is leagues above Nick loving Foligno at any cross career comparison. The Foligno trade was and is super funny because it was obvious that you were reading for someone who at his peak was a 2nd liner. Cool dude, but never worth a 1st rounder. RoR was a top center as recently as last year. How much he needs Perron is a good question, but he’s still a good bet IMO.
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Jan 17, 2023 23:02
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Matt Zerella posted:Nat to take anything away from Buffalo but Pronman is wrong a whole lot (he though K'Andre Miller was a sub par skater If this is true then it can only mean he never actually saw K'Andre for more than 5 seconds and just figured it was safe to say a 6'5" defenseman was slow. Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Is Bedard supposed to be a better prospect than McDavid No but Bedard is the real loving deal and is going to be a Hart contender for the Blackhawks in 2 years.
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Jan 17, 2023 23:11
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Nick Foligno was 10th in the league in scoring one year.
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Jan 17, 2023 23:13
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Duckman2008 posted:I mean, sure, but Ryan O’Reilly is leagues above Nick loving Foligno at any cross career comparison. Obviously the potential ceiling is way higher, yeah, the comparison was more along the lines of "this guy will likely be incapable of performing the role you're getting him for" both because of injury and because age/production would point to them declining
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Jan 17, 2023 23:19
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Spring Break My Heart posted:Nick Foligno was 10th in the league in scoring one year. The year that Jamie Benn won the scoring title with 87 points in 82 games should not be a year celebrated. We should simply banish all mention of it out of the NHL record books in hopes we never see it again.
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Jan 17, 2023 23:21
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With 4 points in his last game of the season? No way, that owned. Not Jamie's fault no one could score a decent amount of points that year. I say celebrate it with some kind of taco night.
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Jan 17, 2023 23:23
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rex rabidorum vires posted:Where would I rate the Penguins - huge breath and 20,000 words later . Nah. I'd rate the Penguins as disappointing followed by unbelievably inconsistent. The nuts and bolts on that we're skipping here. Bruins 39gp 66p Leafs 40gp 55p TBL 38gp 49p Canes 40gp 57p NJ 40gp 53p NYR 41gp 51p WC Caps 42gp 50p NYI 41gp 46p Pens 38gp 44p Sabres 37gp 42p 4 games in hand and 4 points back of a wild card spot. I'd say the Sabres have had a similar season to the Pens in that they've been wildly inconsistent. Going on stretches where they are playing like one of the best teams in the league, and then stretches where they look terrible. Pens have been better obviously, but not by a huge margin.
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Jan 17, 2023 23:29
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Koopa Kid posted:Obviously the potential ceiling is way higher, yeah, the comparison was more along the lines of "this guy will likely be incapable of performing the role you're getting him for" both because of injury and because age/production would point to them declining Honest question but what is it about Leafs fans where whatever rental is rumored to you I see replies like this? ROR would probably be pretty great if you can fit him cap wise and he's healthy. I feel like I saw this when the rumor was Mcdonagh, and earlier this season, Vatrano.
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Jan 17, 2023 23:34
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Powershift posted:Imagine how many draft picks they'll get for him at the end of his ELC it's not impossible that the coyotes draft a player who ends up playing for ASU and refusing to report to/sign with them
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Jan 17, 2023 23:35
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Eric the Mauve posted:If this is true then it can only mean he never actually saw K'Andre for more than 5 seconds and just figured it was safe to say a 6'5" defenseman was slow. I dunno I read some of his stuff now and it seems to say he thought Miller was a good skater but then when he did individual rankings it seemed like he meant "for a big guy" because I remember him ranking the skating as like "NHL average" or something e: ah it was in his recent players under 23 rankings and he said: quote:Jan. 21, 2000 | 6-foot-5 | 215 pounds | Shoots left Which like I said seems to have an unspoken "for a big guy" attached to the "skates well" comment. Levitate fucked around with this message at 23:51 on Jan 17, 2023 |
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Jan 17, 2023 23:49
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Thinking about whether the Kraken should be buyers at the deadline for a goalie (assuming a decent goalie were available somewhere, which I guess probably not). I am familiar with salary cap stuff from the NFL, but less so for the NHL, other than I see that in the NHL contracts are more or less fully guaranteed. https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/kraken Grubauer is under contract through the 26-27 season at 5.9MM per.  a couple questions about that: Should they be thinking about buying him out? Then if I understand the buyout rules correctly you'd be paying 2MM per in dead money for all of eternity (through 30-31). But it would give you 4MM back during this next few years. Martin Jones is UFA after this year so likely he will cost a lot more than his current 2MM per to retain or replace as a primary starter. Drieger is still on the roster as well at 3.5MM per. So if Grubauer is retained and Jones is replaced/retained at say 5MM you are looking at probably something like 14 MM per year for mediocre to bad goaltending going forward. Is that totally crippling for a team, or is it pretty normal to have a red spot of that size on a good team's roster? The rest of the roster cap hits look OK to me at first glance, though the team is going to have a hard time retaining some of the players that are doing well this year like Dunn and Sprong. Losing Dunn will hurt a lot. Bjorkstrand maybe is questionable as to whether he is going to play up to his contract as well. I guess before looking at this I didn't fully realize how much money we spent to add the big names in the offseason this year and how close we are to the cap already. It's a good thing the moves worked because otherwise hoo boy the future would look bleak.
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Jan 17, 2023 23:52
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All this talk of tanking caused me to look at the standings and notice that the Winnipeg Jets are first in the Western Conference. But they're still a fake team.
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Jan 17, 2023 23:53
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Matt Zerella posted:Honest question but what is it about Leafs fans where whatever rental is rumored to you I see replies like this? ROR would probably be pretty great if you can fit him cap wise and he's healthy. I’m giving my honest opinion based on a guy’s literal current injury status and his stats this year, I don’t know what you’re talking about and I don’t care what other Leafs fans are saying about other proposed deals I’ve never seen
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Jan 17, 2023 23:58
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Duckman2008 posted:I mean, sure, but Ryan O’Reilly is leagues above Nick loving Foligno at any cross career comparison. https://twitter.com/SpokedZ/status/1615071836198387712
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Jan 18, 2023 00:14
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Koth posted:All this talk of tanking caused me to look at the standings and notice that the Winnipeg Jets are first in the Western Conference. But they're still a fake team. Meanwhile the Florida Panthers are... (checks notes) 10th in the Eastern Conference. Please tell me more about what a great coach Paul Maurice is.
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Jan 18, 2023 00:17
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T-Bone posted:Buffalo has 12 players on Pronman's top 150 U23 prospect list (3 more than any other team), including 3 in the top 10. And Tage of course, isn't eligible. All of Detroit's signings were fine except Chiarot. It's been a topic in Red Wings media for a while but the general thought is there is really no way this team could have been as bad as Chicago, Anaheim, or Arizona without a firesale, so it's probably better to just not have another year of poo poo losing culture with a new core rising and Larkin in a contract year. The only new contracts going into the Wings' contention window are Copp and Chiarot so it doesn't tie them down if moves need to be made. I'm still okay with the Yzerplan. I feel like Ottawa did more to tie themselves up in an awkward barely-contending spot. Buffalo is definitely in the best position of any of these teams.
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Jan 18, 2023 00:23
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detroit is in that mushy middle of teams that is nowhere near bad enough to get a good shot at a high draft pick and nowhere near good enough to contend for a playoff spot. they have a lot of good prospects but no one that really projects as a game breaking player. they desperately need a tage thompson like scenario to emerge otherwise i dont think they are making the playoffs for at least 3 more years E; lol at mullet arena: https://twitter.com/KenKalDRW/status/1615411860173647873?s=20 clean ayers act fucked around with this message at 01:02 on Jan 18, 2023 |
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Jan 18, 2023 00:47
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https://twitter.com/Ken_Campbell27/status/1615473695543394304?s=20
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Jan 18, 2023 00:48
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DancingMachine posted:Thinking about whether the Kraken should be buyers at the deadline for a goalie (assuming a decent goalie were available somewhere, which I guess probably not). I am familiar with salary cap stuff from the NFL, but less so for the NHL, other than I see that in the NHL contracts are more or less fully guaranteed. I don't think they should be considering buying out Grubauer at this point, it's not easy to find a goalie and even if he's struggled 2 years in a row with the Kraken, Grubauer had 3 years with the Avs that showed he could perform well above average as a starting goalie and 3 years with the Caps that showed he could perform well above average as a backup. The Kraken have a couple (literally 2) of goalie prospects but 2 is not nearly enough and they're 4-5 years from NHL-ready even if they pan out so they're gonna need to get a free agent or trade for a goalie before they can even consider buying out Grubauer. Also why is Ron Francis handing out so many NTC/NMC contracts? The Kraken have 13! Tampa and Boston have 11 and St Louis has 10 but those at least were rewards for cup-winning/contending teams
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Jan 18, 2023 00:51
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https://twitter.com/charlieo_conn/status/1615495387342577666?t=RCy5bBbz9qDqXWgcz2N-0g&s=19 welp
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Jan 18, 2023 00:56
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https://twitter.com/charlieo_conn/status/1615498322646630401?t=puTGGhvhsCAylqQdXOKGWg&s=19 We would never get anything as fun as a trade
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Jan 18, 2023 01:02
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Ken Holland almost made a trade and then he got scared
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Jan 18, 2023 01:31
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Hmmm, these number say I suck. However, these other numbers... also say I suck. 
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Jan 18, 2023 01:48
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