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ronya posted:what terrible fate befell Bradley #60 I believe they say 58 59 60. Charlz Guybon posted:I assume that other countries would follow if the Netherlands did this Given how if worked out the last time, when Burrell literally said “Ukraine is getting the planes in an hour”, I wouldn’t be so sure about this capacity being there for them.
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Jan 20, 2023 11:39
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Alchenar posted:There are a few people who make quite tidy sums of money by whenever a large procurement order is made by a country buying a ton of spare parts for that vehicle or piece of kit while the production lines are running and they're extremely cheap, sticking them in a warehouse for 20-25 years and waiting for the state to come running when it needs to keep the stuff running past the original end-of-use date and the original supply of spares has all dried up. It happens is almost every industry out there New Old Stock is incredibly lucrative. For example I know of some company that bought up a TON of various computer stuff about 20 years ago that is now making a killing now because all of what they have is in heavy demand from both companies that have equipment that rely upon it and retro computer enthusiasts. Stuff that you couldn’t give away when they bought it is now selling for 10+ times what it was worth new.
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Jan 20, 2023 11:40
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They took the risk, paid the initial cost of buying lightly obsolete stuff, then a decade or three of storage costs. I can't be mad that they get the profits now. But for the military stuff it's mental that someone would use "just in time" method.
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Jan 20, 2023 11:59
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What's the practical/legal reason that countries are so hesitant to send specifically tanks as opposed to HIMARS and fighter jets?
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Jan 20, 2023 12:03
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There's a whole bunch of different reasons. the big ones are 1) takes a long time for them to have an impact since you have to set up an entire training pipeline from scratch, which includes training trainers and training all the mechanics. 2) export restrictions if they aren't domestic production (and/or if they use significant foreign parts) gum things up since everyone has to be on board with transfers 3) Russia has been threatening some wild stuff if western MBTs start finding their way to Ukraine. Idk if that's very effective at fully discouraging western tanks from being sent, but there's clearly a feeling that the escalatory potential needs to be addressed and managed. 4) In light of #3, there appears to be an interest in having western tanks provided as part of a larger, almost alliance-wide effort. Doing so simplifies the logistics as well as mitigates some of Russia's options to escalate or to focus their ire on a specific country. A lot of the above applies to fighters, too. If Russia could go back in time they'd almost certainly oppose HIMARS transfers with the same intensity that they've opposed MBTs and fighters for Ukraine. There's more reasons than just those above, but those are the biggest ones that seem to come up. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 12:18 on Jan 20, 2023 |
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Jan 20, 2023 12:16
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Unsaid publicly: 5) they're expensive, nobody seems to ever have nearly as many in working order as their headline numbers, and procurement of more will probably get hosed up leaving the donor country short and/or poor.
Pablo Bluth fucked around with this message at 12:23 on Jan 20, 2023 |
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Jan 20, 2023 12:20
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Nobody has sent fighter jets, and I seriously doubt Ukraine will receive western jets any time soon. As for western tanks, the USA probably doesn't want to for both escalation management reasons and global perception. It's a big, flashy item to send. They will want Europe to lead deliveries, even if their own Abrams deliveries seem inevitable. For nations in Europe it's a very painful cut into their own military. Some of them have hostile neighbours (Greece, Finland…), some of them are expected to have tank companies rolling to help the east (Germany), and some are a bit weird (Spain). Each operator will have to ship in to produce relevant quantities. Ukraine needs MBT in numbers, the ability to repair them in field conditions, and the entire logistics train. That's a gigantic ask. If a PzH 2000 breaks down, it'll be in friendly territory and getting it shipped to a Lithuanian repair shop is nbd. If an MBT breaks down or gets stuck, it'll be near the front. A HIMARS is just a big truck. Also, of course, there's lots of frog boiling going on. Military support for Ukraine has crossed Russian red line after red line over and over again in small incremental steps.
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Jan 20, 2023 12:23
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Pablo Bluth posted:Unsaid publicly: 5) they're expensive, nobody seems to ever have nearly as many in working order as their headline numbers, and procurement of more will probably get hosed up leaving the donor country short and/or poor. Yeah on that note, too, everyone just got one hell of a lesson on just how much you do not actually want to run out of tanks and that existing stocks for most countries in europe are likely an order of magnitude less than what they'd actually want to have should they end up involved in a major conflict. Edit: agreed with antigravitas above, too Antigravitas posted:Also, of course, there's lots of frog boiling going on. Military support for Ukraine has crossed Russian red line after red line over and over again in small incremental steps. on this point, Ukraine getting hundreds of western MBTs is crossing a much bigger red line than most previous assistance to Ukraine has been. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 12:28 on Jan 20, 2023 |
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Jan 20, 2023 12:24
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It would probably be less of a headache for the Netherlands to get new f-16s if they gave some to Ukraine than it would be to get replacement Leopards.
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Jan 20, 2023 12:28
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Dante posted:What's the practical/legal reason that countries are so hesitant to send specifically tanks as opposed to HIMARS and fighter jets? A good practical reason here is that western tanks are like 50% heavier, which can be a problem for bridges and so on. M1 Abrams specifically has a jet engine as the motor, basically, and Ukraine has been having issues here and there with maintaining fuel supply for much less demanding consumers. Also, sending Western jets is a very tired meme - no one has done it, and I’ll be surprised if anyone does it now. Bridges are not a problem for them, but your maintenance crews basically have to have university degrees in maintaining them. Also, I would argue that they’re simply not that useful to Ukraine right now, without fancy NATO rockets on them, due to how saturated are the air defences around the frontline.
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Jan 20, 2023 12:33
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The Netherlands doesn't have any Leopards. They were all sold, and their tank crews rolled into the German/Dutch Panzerbataillon 414.
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Jan 20, 2023 12:38
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Pook Good Mook posted:"Red line" or not, killing civilians in downtown Moscow is going to reflect extremely badly on the Ukrainians. I know it's a double-standard, but I just can't envision they will open up that possibility, even if there are "military" targets in the city. There were already attacks on Belgorod and the region with civilian casualties Though I guess attacks on Moscow could be interpreted as Ukraine doing too well
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Jan 20, 2023 12:38
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Charlz Guybon posted:I assume that other countries would follow if the Netherlands did this "We will look into supplying F-16 fighter jets if Kyiv requests it." Great, thank you!  "We are open-minded, there are 'no taboos'." Uh, sorry sir... how is that relevant?
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Jan 20, 2023 12:42
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Antigravitas posted:The Netherlands doesn't have any Leopards. They were all sold, and their tank crews rolled into the German/Dutch Panzerbataillon 414.
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Jan 20, 2023 12:44
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Nenonen posted:"We will look into supplying F-16 fighter jets if Kyiv requests it." Red light district tourism flagging? 
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Jan 20, 2023 12:49
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Nenonen posted:"We will look into supplying F-16 fighter jets if Kyiv requests it." It's because this isn't an announcement. https://www.leidschdagblad.nl/cnt/dmf20230119_78845419?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic quote:Het kabinet zal ook kijken naar het leveren van F-16 gevechtsvliegtuigen als de regering in Kiev daar om vraagt. Dat maakte minister Wopke Hoekstra (Buitenlandse Zaken) duidelijk tijdens een debat donderdag in de Tweede Kamer. Het kabinet zal met een "open blik" naar zo'n verzoek kijken. quote:The cabinet will also look at supplying F-16 fighter jets if the government in Kiev requests it. Minister Wopke Hoekstra (Foreign Affairs) made this clear during a debate in the Lower House on Thursday. The cabinet will look at such a request with an "open mind". That's parliamentary weeabooing. Or to put it another way: Twitter users are stupid.
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Jan 20, 2023 13:00
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In my (uninformed) opinion this stuff about fighter jets (and even MBTs) is not that important because its very slow and mapower/training intensive. They need to focus on longer range missles and attack drone in sufficient quantities and also "unmarked" special forces to actually help "hold the line". The west needs something like Blackwater to counter Wagner and just be able to quckly draw in manpower without accountability. If Russia is really readying 200K men by may they need fast options.
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Jan 20, 2023 13:34
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Yeah on that note, too, everyone just got one hell of a lesson on just how much you do not actually want to run out of tanks and that existing stocks for most countries in europe are likely an order of magnitude less than what they'd actually want to have should they end up involved in a major conflict. Denmark has 14/44 Leopard 2 (A6 or A7) in working order and posted to the Baltics. Then we have semi-functional training vehicles and the rest are under maintenance/repair/refit.
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Jan 20, 2023 13:50
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Kings and Generals: Battle of Kyiv - Russian Invasion of Ukraine DOCUMENTARY The so far definitive video I have seen of the Battle of Kyiv : at the same high standard as their historical and fictional wars. 36 minutes of history worth watching. It blows the water out of any main stream media summary of the battle or TV special. 20:39: The Ukrainians threw smoke grenades, the Russian airborne troops ran way....and the Ukrainians stole the tanks they were guarding! I feel like this is going to be in a movie one day. 22:54: The battle of Moschun Hollywood, there's your movie. International brigades, snipers killing generals, special forces blowing the dam but everything seems lost when 30 tanks cross the river and are about to drive towards Kyiv.....A local farmer tells the Ukrainian's about it and saves the day, the battle, the war. (Mod should include the Kings and Generals video's in their roundup!). Comstar fucked around with this message at 14:31 on Jan 20, 2023 |
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Jan 20, 2023 14:17
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EmployeeOfTheMonth posted:In my (uninformed) opinion this stuff about fighter jets (and even MBTs) is not that important because its very slow and mapower/training intensive. They need to focus on longer range missles and attack drone in sufficient quantities and also "unmarked" special forces to actually help "hold the line". The west needs something like Blackwater to counter Wagner and just be able to quckly draw in manpower without accountability. Western boots on the ground at the front in any organized fashion (instead of ad hoc volunteers) is a way bigger escalation than anything anyone has been talking about in this thread and is unlikely to make that much of a difference anyways. You basically might as well call the start of WW3 at that point, so I’d say this is the Clanciest of Clancychat. Training and equipping MBTs may be slow but it’s increasingly obvious that armor is necessary to any real offensive push. You can hold the line with infantry and artillery but Ukraine has little chance of retaking their territory or breaking the stalemate with just that.
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Jan 20, 2023 14:22
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Pablo Bluth posted:It would probably be less of a headache for the Netherlands to get new f-16s if they gave some to Ukraine than it would be to get replacement Leopards.
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Jan 20, 2023 14:30
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Tomn posted:Western boots on the ground at the front in any organized fashion (instead of ad hoc volunteers) is a way bigger escalation than anything anyone has been talking about in this thread and is unlikely to make that much of a difference anyways. You basically might as well call the start of WW3 at that point, so I’d say this is the Clanciest of Clancychat. I bet a lot of "adhoc volunteers" get paid by the west either directly or indirectly. So you could have more adhoc volunteers who have a special forces dayjob from which they have taken a sabbatical. I dont think its clancychat, or maybe it is like sending MBTs 6 months ago was clancychat then. And the Wagner group itself has a very high clancychat factor, who thought prisoners and people from Africa would be on paid contracts for a PMC? I think this is not only about the hypothetical "offensive push" for Ukraine in 6 months, its how are they going to defend in the coming months. I think 10000 "volunteers" would have more effect than 14 challenger tanks.
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Jan 20, 2023 14:40
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EmployeeOfTheMonth posted:I bet a lot of "adhoc volunteers" get paid by the west either directly or indirectly. I wouldn’t call “mom, send me airfare money” western government support but maybe some do.
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Jan 20, 2023 14:42
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EmployeeOfTheMonth posted:I bet a lot of "adhoc volunteers" get paid by the west either directly or indirectly. So you could have more adhoc volunteers who have a special forces dayjob from which they have taken a sabbatical. I dont think its clancychat, or maybe it is like sending MBTs 6 months ago was clancychat then. And the Wagner group itself has a very high clancychat factor, who thought prisoners and people from Africa would be on paid contracts for a PMC? Sending MBTs was a reasonable inevitability, especially ever since Ukraine got its first PzH 2000, and, well, hundreds of MBTs of more familiar designs. Clandestine NATO troops waging war on Russia is not just thread-specific Clancychat, it’s a literary Clancychat as well, and I’m not keen to see it continue in absence of evidence or credible reporting. Also, please read the OP, so that you know the operating definition of Clancychat ITT, or that this is a current events thread. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 15:04 on Jan 20, 2023 |
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Jan 20, 2023 15:01
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At the risk of sounding dumb, can someone please explain why Germany is so resitant to sending material aid to Ukraine? My best understanding of this attitude is that post-war Germany has had anti militarism so ingrained into its politics that they are very touchy about being seen as part of any sort of aggressive military operation, even ones that are defensive as Ukraine's fight is. Is this the case, or are they that afraid at alienating Russia for political or commercial reasons?
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Jan 20, 2023 15:21
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Scratch Monkey posted:At the risk of sounding dumb, can someone please explain why Germany is so resitant to sending material aid to Ukraine? My best understanding of this attitude is that post-war Germany has had anti militarism so ingrained into its politics that they are very touchy about being seen as part of any sort of aggressive military operation, even ones that are defensive as Ukraine's fight is. Is this the case, or are they that afraid at alienating Russia for political or commercial reasons? Germany has sent a ton of aid to Ukraine, and just cash where they didn’t want or couldn’t send goods. MBTs debacle is a Scholz idiosyncrasy of not wishing to go into the annals of history as a war chancellor, a turn of phrase he’s used explicitly even early last year. Sure, there are side factors like Bundeswehr being in ruins or German commercial interests in Russia, but it’s an egregious factual error to say that “Germany is resistant to sending material aid to Ukraine” with no further specifiers.
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Jan 20, 2023 15:29
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By "material" I meant actual military hardware. I know they have given money, but I'd classify that as "financial" support rather than material.
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Jan 20, 2023 15:43
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Depending on how you split it, German military aid has been second or third in the world. Germany's failure to properly articulate or capitalise or even be visibly proud of this is a sign of how dysfunctional the security policy debate is there.
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Jan 20, 2023 15:49
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Scratch Monkey posted:By "material" I meant actual military hardware. I know they have given money, but I'd classify that as "financial" support rather than material. Germany has sent a variety of actual military hardware, such as PzH2000 artillery, M270 rocket launchers, Gepards, IRIS-T anti-air systems, etc. The German government has a handy list: https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992 In general, Germany may have supplied less than might be expected given the relative size of its economy and its leadership position in Europe, and there are a variety of reasons for that (e.g., the dysfunctional state of the German military, etc.), but it's also not true that they aren't supplying military hardware. Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 16:04 on Jan 20, 2023 |
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Jan 20, 2023 15:54
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Sir John Falstaff posted:Germany has sent a variety of actual military hardware, such as PzH2000 artillery, M270 rocket launchers, Gepards, IRIS-T anti-air systems, etc. The German government has a handy list: https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992 Why can they send that stuff but Leos are a bridge too far?
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Jan 20, 2023 16:03
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Scratch Monkey posted:Why can they send that stuff but Leos are a bridge too far? Personal politics of the federal chancellor have been the main apparent obstacle, insofar as Germany sending Leopards of their own is concerned.
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Jan 20, 2023 16:06
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I believe they've committed to providing a patriot battery, too.
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Jan 20, 2023 16:11
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https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-politics-military-technology-joint-chiefs-of-staff-lloyd-austin-1b505c88a5a6f331cd482762c62fa29c No groundbreaking announcements form Ramstein as yet. They’ve been going for about 6 hours, I believe.
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Jan 20, 2023 16:17
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The issue is that Germany has twenty years of building up the Russian military to compensate for.
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Jan 20, 2023 16:17
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Morrow posted:The issue is that Germany has twenty years of building up the Russian military to compensate for.  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 20, 2023 16:22
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Tomn posted:Training and equipping MBTs may be slow but it’s increasingly obvious that armor is necessary to any real offensive push. You can hold the line with infantry and artillery but Ukraine has little chance of retaking their territory or breaking the stalemate with just that. It doesn't seem like this deterred Ukraine from taking the eastern Kharkiv oblast back in September or from pressuring Russians in Kherson to the point that they withdrew in November? And don't expect Ukraine to be fielding western MBTs before summer. For larger quantities, 2024 is more realistic. So for the time being, Ukraine will have to make do.
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Jan 20, 2023 16:50
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Pretty much every kind of armored vehicle that had been given to Ukraine was documented participating in the Kharkiv offensive.
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Jan 20, 2023 16:57
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Nenonen posted:It doesn't seem like this deterred Ukraine from taking the eastern Kharkiv oblast back in September or from pressuring Russians in Kherson to the point that they withdrew in November? russia was significantly undermanned at that time and the ukrainians could overrun them. since then there has been a big draft and it would be a lot harder to do the same thing
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Jan 20, 2023 16:57
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Morrow posted:The issue is that Germany has twenty years of building up the Russian military to compensate for. Don't forget the internal repressive apparatus Where do you think the money to buy their loyalty, salaries and equipment were coming from all those years
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Jan 20, 2023 16:57
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Nenonen posted:It doesn't seem like this deterred Ukraine from taking the eastern Kharkiv oblast back in September or from pressuring Russians in Kherson to the point that they withdrew in November? The Kharkiv offensive was very much spearheaded by concentrated armor formations and required a lot of careful shepherding of Ukraine's limited supply of tanks to pull off. To my knowledge the Kherson advance did not employ armor to nearly the same quantities, which is why despite being a strategically vulnerable position it took months of feeding bodies into the meatgrinder to force the Russians out. If anything, these examples really underscore the importance of tanks to the war effort.
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Jan 20, 2023 17:14
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