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Hyrax Attack! posted:A family friend was a Coast Guard engineer, now he works for a telecom in a boxy building with maybe one other person on site, I think he has to be there because if the power went down and there was an issue with the generators phones would stop working for a big chunk of a major city. Combo of technical role & clearance means he has a large house. I would love a gig like this.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 20:05 |
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# ? Jun 5, 2024 08:18 |
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Wasn't a building like that targeted by the Q nut that blew up his RV in downtown Nashville a few years ago?
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 20:22 |
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CRUSTY MINGE posted:Wasn't a building like that targeted by the Q nut that blew up his RV in downtown Nashville a few years ago? I believe so yes.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 20:35 |
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I find it hard to understand why Germany won't at least release other countries to allow Leopard 2 to be sent.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 20:46 |
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Scholz gives off stronger conservative vibes than Merkel did, so I'm going to go with it being a right winger thing. Or maybe he doesn't want to risk russians getting their hands on one, even if the odds are very, very low.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 20:54 |
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MonkeyLibFront posted:I find it hard to understand why Germany won't at least release other countries to allow Leopard 2 to be sent. There's part of the German government that believe that keeping the war at arms length is best, remember that Germany viewed purchasing fossil fuels from Russia believe it would keep them from conflict. They are really deluded in what this war is about and the outcome.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 21:12 |
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They won't release their re-export controls unless the US sends Abramsi also, since they don't want to be the next thing Russia gets focused on.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 21:56 |
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CRUSTY MINGE posted:Scholz gives off stronger conservative vibes than Merkel did, so I'm going to go with it being a right winger thing. The Russians have an Abrams already (purportedly from Egypt). It would not surprise me if Turkey already gave them access to a Leopard 2–they aren't exactly new tanks with secret tech. Unless Germany is concerned with the bad publicity of a captured tank rather than the compromised technology. CommieGIR posted:There's part of the German government that believe that keeping the war at arms length is best, remember that Germany viewed purchasing fossil fuels from Russia believe it would keep them from conflict. They are really deluded in what this war is about and the outcome. Pretty crazy how we're 11 months into the war and we still don't know who attacked Nordstream
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 21:58 |
Suicide Watch posted:The Russians have an Abrams already (purportedly from Egypt). It would not surprise me if Turkey already gave them access to a Leopard 2–they aren't exactly new tanks with secret tech. Unless Germany is concerned with the bad publicity of a captured tank rather than the compromised technology. It was KKKillary
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 22:01 |
I do not think the Russians could build a better armored tank by disassembling a new Abrams, nor do I think they could develop a better tank cannon to defeat an Abrams. They are struggling to build any tanks, let along high-tech ones. At best them having captured Abrams would allow them to plan a Tank Destroyer optimized for its armor. Because while you can design a better top attack ATGM as well, those take a lot of fancy microelectronics, which Russia is struggling with.
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# ? Jan 20, 2023 22:03 |
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German culture really doesn't permit admitting you're wrong and changing your position. The entire country is built upon unwavering faith in established systems and processes (at all levels), and attempts to change them are met with suspicion, confusion, or outright hostility. If the system isn't working properly, attempts are made to defend it or even retcon the rationale behind it, no matter how ridiculous the justification may be. This goes for everything from bans on washing your own car in your driveway to refusals to provide authorization to transfer Leopard 2s to Ukraine.
psydude fucked around with this message at 22:09 on Jan 20, 2023 |
# ? Jan 20, 2023 22:07 |
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Germany is in the weird place of having demonstrably provided significant materiel aid to Ukraine compared to most countries but still catching poo poo and holding back on approving third-party German weapons proliferation. E: This may be totally wrong, but it seems like the US messages "we are giving them all these things" and then if asked about stuff the US isn't giving, has boilerplate capabilities, requirements, etc answers to give. Whereas Germany's PM will list the things they will not give and then as an afterthought releases that they have actually given [Substantive and Important Donation and Aid] mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 00:06 on Jan 21, 2023 |
# ? Jan 20, 2023 23:59 |
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mlmp08 posted:Germany is in the weird place of having demonstrably provided significant materiel aid to Ukraine compared to most countries but still catching poo poo and holding back on approving third-party German weapons proliferation. Last I heard the amount of material Germany has actually provided is misleading and they provided maybe 10% of what they actually claim they have
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 01:03 |
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CommieGIR posted:Last I heard the amount of material Germany has actually provided is misleading and they provided maybe 10% of what they actually claim they have Who did you hear that from?
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 01:08 |
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Full text except staffer intro is quoted below. Video and full transcript in the link. My highlights went long, but the speakers didn't have much time and packed a fair amount of points into a small period of time. https://www.defense.gov/News/Transc...-press-confere/ Additional PDA, as mentioned in text. This one was released yesterday, 19JAN. https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3272866/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/ NATO press release ref the contact group today: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_210927.htm -SECDEF emphasizes ongoing efforts of contact group to have multi-national cooperation since contact group began in April as well as long-term commitment. [My note: consistent with long-running US message that Russia is trying to wait everyone out, and US argues this theory of victory will not succeed] -SECDEF: "pushing hard to meet Ukraine's requirements for tanks and other armored vehicles" -Lists donations from France, Germany, Canada, Sweden, UK, Netherlands, Latvia, Denmark, Estonia, etc. -Mechanized battalion and brigade training ongoing in Germany for Ukrainian troops -GEN Milley: "our 30th security assistance package, signifying our continued commitment to Ukraine, and this package, combined with our previous one, includes combined arms maneuver capabilities with supporting artillery, equivalent to at least two combined arms maneuver brigades or six mech infantry battalions, 10 motorized infantry battalions, and four artillery battalions, along with a lot of other equipment." [My note: Pretty close in combat power, though it assumes Brigade Support Battalions are provided out of Ukraine's stores and/or prior donations of trucks, support vehicles, etc.] -This combat power is designed to defend Ukraine as well as enable counter-offensives to retake Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russian forces. -When asked about main battle tanks, SECDEF points out that German Minister of Defense is undecided on Leopards so far. Says contact group is focused on ensuring Ukraine has capability to be successful, and they see a short window of opportunity between now and the spring to pull together capabilities -When asked if he would like to throw Germany directly under the bus and blame them for tanks and call them an unreliable partner, SECDEF opted not to do so. Points out that this is not about one specific singular platform. Points out US providing 2x Brigades worth of mech capability, Germany providing Marders, Sweden a battalion's-worth of CV90s, artillery, etc. -GEN Milley highlights that the frontage is equivalent to Washington, DC to Atlanta in size, and that the area occupied by Russia still has a large number of Russian forces defending those occupied areas and conducting offensive action around Bakhmut and Soledar. -GEN Milley: "So from a military standpoint, I still maintain that for this year it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from all -- every inch of Ukraine and occupied -- or Russian-occupied Ukraine. That doesn't mean it can't happen; doesn't mean it won't happen, but it'd be very, very difficult. I think what can happen is a continued defense stabilized in the front. I think it's possible to clearly do that, and I think it's, depending on the delivery and training of all of this equipment, I do think it's very, very possible to -- for the Ukrainians to run a significant tactical- or -- or even operational-level offensive operation to liberate as much Ukrainian territory as possible, and then what was -- then we'll see where it goes." -SECDEF came back largely unprompted to highlight that Germany has or is currently about to provide a large amount of support to Ukraine: Patriot Battery, Marders, artillery, IRIS-T, Gepards, hosting training, conducting training themselves, hosting US forces, hosting the transportation hubs that help supply Ukraine, etc. [My note: The SECDEF recognizes and seems to want to verbalize that Germany is catching negative press about Ukraine, despite being a major donor and supporter of Ukraine] -SECDEF denies that sending Abrams would "unlock" Leopard donations. Says that the US decision one way or the other on Abrams has nothing to do with German arms decisions. [My note: Takes pressure off of Germany as well as the US to send Abrams to "trigger" Leo donations. There's weird main battle tank domino theory going on in the press IMO] -GEN Milley is asked a question about having time to prepare for a coherent offensive. GEN Milley highlights that training is essential to these donations being effective. Very short period of time between now and spring offensive. It remains to be seen whether that can be done successfully. He thinks it can be done, but it will be very challenging to meet the timeline. Points out that Ukraine has led successful offensives before, but there are a lot of moving parts to marry up equipment, training, and executable plans. -When asked about casualty estimates, GEN Milley: "Russian casualties -- last time I reported out -- on it publicly, I said it was well over 100,000. I would say it's significantly well over 100,000 now." -Says Ukraine has also suffered tremendously and has suffered a significant amount of infrastructure and economic damage and a significant number of civilian and miltiary casualties. [My note: the last time he commented on this, in November of 2022, he said that Ukrainian military casualties were probably about the "same" as Russian casualties at the time] -GEN Milley Highlights that the very high casualties for both sides are part of what leads him to believe this war will end at a negotiation table with an end state of a free, sovereign, independent Ukraine, with its territory intact. [My note: Presumably the meaning of "territory intact" is the most negotiable of those items listed] quote:SECRETARY OF DEFENSE LLOYD J. AUSTIN III: Thank you all for joining us today at Ramstein.
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 01:09 |
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https://twitter.com/GalloVOA/status/1616568432534913024
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 01:31 |
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mlmp08 posted:Who did you hear that from? Yeah idk where that's from, some of the German equipment deals are actually bizarrely generous, eg 15 leopard 2s to Slovakia in exchange for Slovakia providing 30 BMP 1s to Ukraine. Germany providing a patriot battery is also a surprisingly serious contribution. Doubly so since it appeared to come about after the spat with Poland where iirc a polish diplomat made some snarky comment to Germany that they 'should deploy a patriot battery in Ukraine then' which went over poorly... and then a week or so later Germany announced that they were providing a patriot battery to Ukraine. idk if I've ever seen a country get in a little diplomatic spat like that before and then just acquiesce. I think Germany's public reticence makes sense insofar as giving aide to Ukraine is close to a 50/50 issue in Germany, with Scholtz personally landing on the 'we should appear to do less' end of the spectrum. Plus Germany is far more exposed to potential blowback from Russia than the US is, which Russia has repeatedly been threatening. Scholtz in particular is navigating the whole thing in a very peculiar way that maximizes the potential for confusion and for 'Germany obstructs aid once again' headlines (regardless of how grounded in fact they are). The whole kind of rabid messaging and social media ecosystem that's built up around the Ukraine war then takes those headlines and runs with it, too. It's even more contradictory now that you have Pistorius out there making statements seemingly at odds with Germany/Scholtz' previous public positions and it will be interesting to see which side wins out. Seems like Scholtz's statements are much more oriented around domestic opinion (and to some extent not overly aggravating Russia?) and Pistorius has been making statements more intended for external audiences. We'll see which side of this wins out soon, I guess. Taking Pistorius' statements from the last few days at face value, Ukraine will end up operating Leopard 2s and Germany doesn't see reason to oppose it, but the timeline might be some to many months depending on more immediate needs. In particular, Pistorius emphasized this morning that they won't block Ukrainians from being trained on Leopards even before re-export requests are approved. Unambiguously walking back the statements that Leopards won't be forthcoming unless Ukraine gets Abrams was also a big deal that I think has been under-reported on. anyways full disclaimer that I'm particularly not an expert on German politics mlmp08 posted:Full text except staffer intro is quoted below. Video and full transcript in the link. My highlights went long, but the speakers didn't have much time and packed a fair amount of points into a small period of time. also thanks for taking the time to put these posts together As an aside, the last week of reporting on German statements has been some of the most chaotic media reporting I've ever seen with the same statements getting reported on multiple times by the same outlets, and old statements being reported as new even after recent statements have come out reversing previous ones, and so on. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 01:48 on Jan 21, 2023 |
# ? Jan 21, 2023 01:40 |
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has Germany daring the United States to do something ever worked out they way they wanted it to, even a single time
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 02:05 |
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mlmp08 posted:Who did you hear that from? Germany promised a lot more than it's currently delivered and was holding out on thing it did say it would previously give https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-olalf-scholz-pressure-tank-deliveries-ukraine/ A little old but a lot of the recent announcements are likely due to pressure from Ukraine and the US and not out of sheer goodness of heart. They've dragged on a lot of promises. And sending new tanks to NATO members for them to send old tanks to Ukraine isn't exactly a bargain for Ukraine even if it does help.
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 02:12 |
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CommieGIR posted:Germany promised a lot more than it's currently delivered and was holding out on thing it did say it would previously give The article you linked does not say that Germany is refusing to deliver gear it promised to Ukraine. It says that the German plan to negotiate to send other countries arms if those countries sent legacy equipment to Ukraine has largely been held up in failed negotiations. This is not the same thing as Germany promising Ukraine aid, and then refusing to give that promised aid to Ukraine. Examples: quote:In many cases, the problem is that partner countries want better gear from Germany. Slovenia, for example, was offered 1970s-era Marder infantry vehicles but asked instead for the more modern Boxer armored fighting vehicle, officials said. Berlin declined the request, as Germany has not even sufficiently equipped its own armed forces with that model. Scholz's critics in that article aren't accusing him of failing to deliver promised aid or holding out on promised aid. They are encouraging new and distinct pledges of equipment, given the negotiation hell that the exchange program is in.
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 02:22 |
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I don't envy Ukraine's balancing act in pressuring Germany if the DoD is going to stand that firmly behind them and not put any pressure on them publicly.
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 02:28 |
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mlmp08 posted:The article you linked does not say that Germany is refusing to deliver gear it promised to Ukraine. It says that the German plan to negotiate to send other countries arms if those countries sent legacy equipment to Ukraine has largely been held up in failed negotiations. This is not the same thing as Germany promising Ukraine aid, and then refusing to give that promised aid to Ukraine. They haven't refused, that's not what I said. They've drug their feet. Way different. You are misunderstanding what I said. I'm not saying Germany isn't providing aid. I'm saying they TALK about aid a lot, but the talk hasn't matched what they deliver. Canada, the UK, and Poland have delivered more military aid than Germany has proper. Scholz is dragging his feet. And this goes back to what I was saying about Germany fears Russia might do something, despite the fact that Russia hasn't really committed to attacking any NATO members proper despite the sword rattling. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 02:45 on Jan 21, 2023 |
# ? Jan 21, 2023 02:42 |
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do they even talk about it that much? germany largely seems pretty hesitant to message aggressively about how much aide they provide. france is the standout there for talking but delivering comparatively little
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 02:46 |
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CommieGIR posted:They haven't refused, that's not what I said. They've drug their feet. Way different. You are misunderstanding what I said. If I am misunderstanding you, I'm going to need more help. What did you mean in your claims below? CommieGIR posted:Germany promised a lot more than it's currently delivered and was holding out on thing it did say it would previously give CommieGIR posted:Last I heard the amount of material Germany has actually provided is misleading and they provided maybe 10% of what they actually claim they have E: Like, what is an item or aid package Germany promised and claimed they delivered but then decided to "hold out" or mislead people? mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 02:52 on Jan 21, 2023 |
# ? Jan 21, 2023 02:47 |
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mlmp08 posted:If I am misunderstanding you, I'm going to need more help. What did you mean in your claims below? No, mlmp, Ive done this discussion with you before you have a habit of refusing to accept anything contrary to what you say. I'm not discussing it further with you.
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 02:57 |
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That’s fine. Just thought may e there was some aid package you knew about that Germany cancelled or decided to hold out on or misled people about. If not, different discussion.
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 03:00 |
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https://time.com/6248929/navy-seal-killed-fighting-ukraine/quote:former American Navy SEAL was killed this week during Russia’s assault on eastern Ukraine while fighting alongside Ukrainian forces, a Navy official tells TIME.
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 03:00 |
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mlmp08 posted:If I am misunderstanding you, I'm going to need more help. What did you mean in your claims below? This may be sealioning but there's a lotta receipts! What did Germany withhold?
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 03:02 |
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One item that might get lost in the "Germany isn't delivering poo poo" issue is that a lot of their warehouse items might be in an atrocious state of disrepair, so the holdup might be to not ship broken stuff like they did with the expired iglas at the start of the war.
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 09:11 |
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SlowBloke posted:One item that might get lost in the "Germany isn't delivering poo poo" issue is that a lot of their warehouse items might be in an atrocious state of disrepair, Sure, but why are they preventing other countries from sending tanks?
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 09:31 |
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psydude posted:Sure, but why are they preventing other countries from sending tanks? I have a hunch that other European countries warehousing procedures are as hosed as Germany so it will pretty much destroy the Leo export reputation if a potential client will see them destroyed by being put in a warehouse for a bit.
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 09:38 |
psydude posted:Sure, but why are they preventing other countries from sending tanks?
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 11:45 |
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SlowBloke posted:I have a hunch that other European countries warehousing procedures are as hosed as Germany so it will pretty much destroy the Leo export reputation if a potential client will see them destroyed by being put in a warehouse for a bit. Pretty much this a lot of contractors who are supposed to keep kit in a state of readiness fail and deliver freshly painted piles of poo poo that take months if not years to rectify.
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 13:22 |
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Time Magazine posted:Swift’s records list several awards that imply combat deployments, including an Iraq Campaign Medal, an Afghanistan Campaign Medal, a Global War on Terrorism Expeditionary Medal and a Legion of Merit. But the records do not provide any additional information related to Swift’s 2019 classification as an “active deserter,” which caused him to lose his status as a Navy SEAL.
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 13:43 |
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Rolling stone has an article on him that gives a lot more detail https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/former-navy-seal-killed-ukraine-battle-1234665040/ divorced, 4 kids, worked for a couple of police departments, then fled the US with a felony bench warrant for false imprisonment related to his divorce
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 14:26 |
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Apparently his cop career had issues too. Seems like marriage woes and going nuts towards his wife combined with his career detonating made him feel like there weren’t a lot of options.
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 14:42 |
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cant really fault a guy for going out that way if he has the specific kind of brokebrain that legitimately believed his status in hell is determined by the size of the honor guard he takes with him i mean its not often you hear about these types killing the right people on their way out
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 14:55 |
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yeah to be honest too many of these cases end in two adult size bodybags and four small ones being wheeled out of a house, so taking his very particular set of skills out on Russians instead of his children seems like the right ending to me
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 15:11 |
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Also not taking it out on the cop career seems to be a net benefit.
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 15:23 |
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# ? Jun 5, 2024 08:18 |
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SlowBloke posted:I have a hunch that other European countries warehousing procedures are as hosed as Germany so it will pretty much destroy the Leo export reputation if a potential client will see them destroyed by being put in a warehouse for a bit. I don't know if I missed something, but has there been an indication that German Leo 2's that have been stored have not been maintained, or was it the article mentioning how the few dozen tanks that Rheinmetall had laying around their factory would take years to get working. * *the theory being that those tanks were lemons/testing platforms/returns under warranty that were never maintained because they never imagined they would ever sell them
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# ? Jan 21, 2023 15:47 |