Ukraine: The Aristoblyats

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Midjack: Dec 24, 2007

Hyrax Attack! posted:

A family friend was a Coast Guard engineer, now he works for a telecom in a boxy building with maybe one other person on site, I think he has to be there because if the power went down and there was an issue with the generators phones would stop working for a big chunk of a major city. Combo of technical role & clearance means he has a large house.

I would love a gig like this.

# ? Jan 20, 2023 20:05

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# ? Jun 5, 2024 06:09

CRUSTY MINGE: Mar 30, 2011; Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur

Wasn't a building like that targeted by the Q nut that blew up his RV in downtown Nashville a few years ago?

# ? Jan 20, 2023 20:22

Hyrax Attack!: Jan 13, 2009; We demand to be taken seriously

CRUSTY MINGE posted:

Wasn't a building like that targeted by the Q nut that blew up his RV in downtown Nashville a few years ago?

I believe so yes.

# ? Jan 20, 2023 20:35

MonkeyLibFront: Feb 26, 2003; Where's the cake?

I find it hard to understand why Germany won't at least release other countries to allow Leopard 2 to be sent.

# ? Jan 20, 2023 20:46

CRUSTY MINGE: Mar 30, 2011; Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur

Scholz gives off stronger conservative vibes than Merkel did, so I'm going to go with it being a right winger thing.

Or maybe he doesn't want to risk russians getting their hands on one, even if the odds are very, very low.

# ? Jan 20, 2023 20:54

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

MonkeyLibFront posted:

I find it hard to understand why Germany won't at least release other countries to allow Leopard 2 to be sent.

There's part of the German government that believe that keeping the war at arms length is best, remember that Germany viewed purchasing fossil fuels from Russia believe it would keep them from conflict. They are really deluded in what this war is about and the outcome.

# ? Jan 20, 2023 21:12

Madurai: Jun 26, 2012

They won't release their re-export controls unless the US sends Abramsi also, since they don't want to be the next thing Russia gets focused on.

# ? Jan 20, 2023 21:56

Suicide Watch: Sep 8, 2009

CRUSTY MINGE posted:

Scholz gives off stronger conservative vibes than Merkel did, so I'm going to go with it being a right winger thing.

Or maybe he doesn't want to risk russians getting their hands on one, even if the odds are very, very low.

The Russians have an Abrams already (purportedly from Egypt). It would not surprise me if Turkey already gave them access to a Leopard 2�they aren't exactly new tanks with secret tech. Unless Germany is concerned with the bad publicity of a captured tank rather than the compromised technology.

CommieGIR posted:

There's part of the German government that believe that keeping the war at arms length is best, remember that Germany viewed purchasing fossil fuels from Russia believe it would keep them from conflict. They are really deluded in what this war is about and the outcome.

Pretty crazy how we're 11 months into the war and we still don't know who attacked Nordstream

# ? Jan 20, 2023 21:58

Comrade Blyatlov: Aug 4, 2007; should have picked four fingers

Suicide Watch posted:

The Russians have an Abrams already (purportedly from Egypt). It would not surprise me if Turkey already gave them access to a Leopard 2–they aren't exactly new tanks with secret tech. Unless Germany is concerned with the bad publicity of a captured tank rather than the compromised technology.

Pretty crazy how we're 11 months into the war and we still don't know who attacked Nordstream

It was KKKillary

# ? Jan 20, 2023 22:01

M_Gargantua: Oct 16, 2006; STOMP'N ON INTO THE POWERLINES; Exciting Lemon

I do not think the Russians could build a better armored tank by disassembling a new Abrams, nor do I think they could develop a better tank cannon to defeat an Abrams. They are struggling to build any tanks, let along high-tech ones.

At best them having captured Abrams would allow them to plan a Tank Destroyer optimized for its armor.

Because while you can design a better top attack ATGM as well, those take a lot of fancy microelectronics, which Russia is struggling with.

# ? Jan 20, 2023 22:03

psydude: Apr 1, 2008

German culture really doesn't permit admitting you're wrong and changing your position. The entire country is built upon unwavering faith in established systems and processes (at all levels), and attempts to change them are met with suspicion, confusion, or outright hostility. If the system isn't working properly, attempts are made to defend it or even retcon the rationale behind it, no matter how ridiculous the justification may be. This goes for everything from bans on washing your own car in your driveway to refusals to provide authorization to transfer Leopard 2s to Ukraine.

psydude fucked around with this message at 22:09 on Jan 20, 2023

# ? Jan 20, 2023 22:07

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Germany is in the weird place of having demonstrably provided significant materiel aid to Ukraine compared to most countries but still catching poo poo and holding back on approving third-party German weapons proliferation.

E: This may be totally wrong, but it seems like the US messages "we are giving them all these things" and then if asked about stuff the US isn't giving, has boilerplate capabilities, requirements, etc answers to give.

Whereas Germany's PM will list the things they will not give and then as an afterthought releases that they have actually given [Substantive and Important Donation and Aid]

mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 00:06 on Jan 21, 2023

# ? Jan 20, 2023 23:59

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

mlmp08 posted:

Germany is in the weird place of having demonstrably provided significant materiel aid to Ukraine compared to most countries but still catching poo poo and holding back on approving third-party German weapons proliferation.

E: This may be totally wrong, but it seems like the US messages "we are giving them all these things" and then if asked about stuff the US isn't giving, has boilerplate capabilities, requirements, etc answers to give.

Whereas Germany's PM will list the things they will not give and then as an afterthought releases that they have actually given [Substantive and Important Donation and Aid]

Last I heard the amount of material Germany has actually provided is misleading and they provided maybe 10% of what they actually claim they have

# ? Jan 21, 2023 01:03

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

CommieGIR posted:

Last I heard the amount of material Germany has actually provided is misleading and they provided maybe 10% of what they actually claim they have

Who did you hear that from?

# ? Jan 21, 2023 01:08

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Full text except staffer intro is quoted below. Video and full transcript in the link. My highlights went long, but the speakers didn't have much time and packed a fair amount of points into a small period of time.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transc...-press-confere/
Additional PDA, as mentioned in text. This one was released yesterday, 19JAN. https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3272866/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
NATO press release ref the contact group today: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_210927.htm

-SECDEF emphasizes ongoing efforts of contact group to have multi-national cooperation since contact group began in April as well as long-term commitment. [My note: consistent with long-running US message that Russia is trying to wait everyone out, and US argues this theory of victory will not succeed]
-SECDEF: "pushing hard to meet Ukraine's requirements for tanks and other armored vehicles"
-Lists donations from France, Germany, Canada, Sweden, UK, Netherlands, Latvia, Denmark, Estonia, etc.
-Mechanized battalion and brigade training ongoing in Germany for Ukrainian troops
-GEN Milley: "our 30th security assistance package, signifying our continued commitment to Ukraine, and this package, combined with our previous one, includes combined arms maneuver capabilities with supporting artillery, equivalent to at least two combined arms maneuver brigades or six mech infantry battalions, 10 motorized infantry battalions, and four artillery battalions, along with a lot of other equipment." [My note: Pretty close in combat power, though it assumes Brigade Support Battalions are provided out of Ukraine's stores and/or prior donations of trucks, support vehicles, etc.]
-This combat power is designed to defend Ukraine as well as enable counter-offensives to retake Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russian forces.
-When asked about main battle tanks, SECDEF points out that German Minister of Defense is undecided on Leopards so far. Says contact group is focused on ensuring Ukraine has capability to be successful, and they see a short window of opportunity between now and the spring to pull together capabilities
-When asked if he would like to throw Germany directly under the bus and blame them for tanks and call them an unreliable partner, SECDEF opted not to do so. Points out that this is not about one specific singular platform. Points out US providing 2x Brigades worth of mech capability, Germany providing Marders, Sweden a battalion's-worth of CV90s, artillery, etc.
-GEN Milley highlights that the frontage is equivalent to Washington, DC to Atlanta in size, and that the area occupied by Russia still has a large number of Russian forces defending those occupied areas and conducting offensive action around Bakhmut and Soledar.
-GEN Milley: "So from a military standpoint, I still maintain that for this year it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from all -- every inch of Ukraine and occupied -- or Russian-occupied Ukraine. That doesn't mean it can't happen; doesn't mean it won't happen, but it'd be very, very difficult. I think what can happen is a continued defense stabilized in the front. I think it's possible to clearly do that, and I think it's, depending on the delivery and training of all of this equipment, I do think it's very, very possible to -- for the Ukrainians to run a significant tactical- or -- or even operational-level offensive operation to liberate as much Ukrainian territory as possible, and then what was -- then we'll see where it goes."
-SECDEF came back largely unprompted to highlight that Germany has or is currently about to provide a large amount of support to Ukraine: Patriot Battery, Marders, artillery, IRIS-T, Gepards, hosting training, conducting training themselves, hosting US forces, hosting the transportation hubs that help supply Ukraine, etc. [My note: The SECDEF recognizes and seems to want to verbalize that Germany is catching negative press about Ukraine, despite being a major donor and supporter of Ukraine]
-SECDEF denies that sending Abrams would "unlock" Leopard donations. Says that the US decision one way or the other on Abrams has nothing to do with German arms decisions. [My note: Takes pressure off of Germany as well as the US to send Abrams to "trigger" Leo donations. There's weird main battle tank domino theory going on in the press IMO]
-GEN Milley is asked a question about having time to prepare for a coherent offensive. GEN Milley highlights that training is essential to these donations being effective. Very short period of time between now and spring offensive. It remains to be seen whether that can be done successfully. He thinks it can be done, but it will be very challenging to meet the timeline. Points out that Ukraine has led successful offensives before, but there are a lot of moving parts to marry up equipment, training, and executable plans.
-When asked about casualty estimates, GEN Milley: "Russian casualties -- last time I reported out -- on it publicly, I said it was well over 100,000. I would say it's significantly well over 100,000 now."
-Says Ukraine has also suffered tremendously and has suffered a significant amount of infrastructure and economic damage and a significant number of civilian and miltiary casualties. [My note: the last time he commented on this, in November of 2022, he said that Ukrainian military casualties were probably about the "same" as Russian casualties at the time]
-GEN Milley Highlights that the very high casualties for both sides are part of what leads him to believe this war will end at a negotiation table with an end state of a free, sovereign, independent Ukraine, with its territory intact. [My note: Presumably the meaning of "territory intact" is the most negotiable of those items listed]

quote:

SECRETARY OF DEFENSE LLOYD J. AUSTIN III: Thank you all for joining us today at Ramstein.

We've just concluded the eighth Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, and it was great to start the new year by deepening our coordination as we work together for Ukraine's self-defense.

As President Biden has said, this is a decisive decade for the world and this is a decisive moment for Ukraine's struggle to defend itself. So this Contact Group will not slow down. We're going to continue to dig deep, and based upon the progress that we've made today, I'm confident that Ukraine's partners from around the globe are determined to meet this moment.

The United States remains committed to leading in this coordinated effort, and this morning, I was pleased to announce another major round of U.S. security assistance designed to meet Ukraine's urgent battlefield requirements, and this $2.5 billion package is one of our largest yet. It helps Ukraine meet its air defense needs with additional NASAMS munitions and eight Avenger air defense systems. And this package also helps tackle Ukraine's urgent need for armor and combat vehicles. It includes 59 additional Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and 90 Stryker armored personnel carriers, 53 MRAPs and 350 up-armored Humvees, and it will provide thousands round -- thousands more rounds of artillery.

Now, we were honored to hear this morning from President Zelenskyy of Ukraine, and let me also thank several other brave Ukrainian leaders for joining us today. And that includes my good friend, Minister Oleksii Reznikov, the ministry of defense, and Lieutenant General Moisiuk, the deputy chief of defense. Their presentations gave us a first-hand account of what Ukraine's military and citizens are facing.

Today's meeting focused on Ukraine's needs for air defense and armor. We also pushed hard on how to synchronize those donations and turn them into fully-operational capabilities, and that means every step, from donation, to training, to maintenance, and then to sustainment.

We also focused hard on how our collective and individual training efforts would be prosecuted. So as you heard President Biden recently announce the latest U.S. training initiative, and it builds on U.S. programs to train Ukrainian troops dating back to 2014. Other countries are stepping up with their own initiatives, and many are joining the European Union's military assistance mission. And meanwhile, we're also continuing to strengthen our defense industrial bases through the work of the National Armaments Directors under the auspices of this Contact Group.

And all of these efforts underscore how much we've deepened our cooperation since the Contact Group began last April. Our work shows how much nations of goodwill can achieve when we work together, and it shows our long-term commitment to supporting Ukraine against Russia's unprovoked aggression.

Now, as we saw again just days ago in Dnipro, Russia continues its assault on Ukraine's civilian and critical infrastructure, and Russia continues to bombard Ukraine's cities with cruise missiles and drones. But the Ukrainian people stand defiant and strong, and Ukrainian troops are bravely defending their country and their fellow citizens.

As Russia's cruelty deepens, the resolve of this Contact Group grows, and that's clear from the announcements that we've heard today, and I'll start with air defense. Several countries have come forward with key donations that will help protect Ukraine's skies and cities and citizens, and France and Germany and the U.K. have all donated air defense systems to Ukraine, and that includes a Patriot battery from Germany. And that's especially important, coming alongside our own contribution of a Patriot system.

And the Netherlands is also donating Patriot missiles and launchers and training. And meanwhile, Canada has procured a NASAMS system and associated munitions for Ukraine. And so these air defense systems will help save countless innocent lives.

We're also pushing hard to meet Ukraine's requirements for tanks and other armored vehicles. The UK has announced a significant donation of Challenger 2 tanks for Ukraine, and this is the first introduction of Western main battle tanks into Ukraine. And I also commend our British allies for making this decision.

And Sweden announced it's donating CV90 Infantry Fighting Vehicles and an additional donation soon of Archer howitzers. We've also heard inspiring and important new donation announcements from several other countries, and that includes Denmark, which will donate 19 howitzers, and Latvia is donating more Stingers and helicopters and other equipment, and Estonia is providing Ukraine with a significant new package of much-needed 155 millimeter howitzers and munitions.

Now, all of today's announcements are direct results of our work at the Contact Group and these important new commitments demonstrate the ongoing resolve of our allies and partners to help Ukraine defend itself, because this isn't just about Ukraine's security, it's also about European security and it's about global security. It's about the kind of world that we want to live in and it's about the world that we want our children and grandchildren to inherit.

The members of this Contact Group are standing up for a world where rules matter and where rights matter and where sovereignty is respected and where people can choose their own path, free from tyranny and aggression, and I'm confident that this group will remain united. And we'll continue to build momentum, we'll support Ukraine against Russian aggression for the long haul, and we'll continue to work toward a free and secure Ukraine and a stable and decent world.

And with that, let me turn it over to the Chairman for his comments.

GENERAL MARK A. MILLEY: Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you, Secretary Austin, for your leadership in this eighth Ukrainian Contact Group, in support of Ukrainian freedom. And thanks, as well, to all of the ministers and the CHODs, the Chiefs of Defense, that were here who represented 54 different countries today.

A special thank you also to the Ukrainian Minister of Defense Reznikov and Deputy Chief of Defense General Moisiuk. I had -- recently had an opportunity to meet with General Zaluzhnyi in Poland and General Moisiuk was here representing him. They all represent the exceptional bravery of the Ukrainian Army, and most importantly, the Ukrainian people.

This week, after meeting General Zaluzhnyi, I had an opportunity to visit some of the training and the mech infantry that we are doing at Grafenwoehr here in the training area in Germany. Also had an opportunity to do some coordination meetings in Wiesbaden and then attended the NATO CHODs Military Committee Meeting, where all of the members of all of the CHODs of NATO had an opportunity to meet, with one of the primary topics being support to Ukraine. And then, of course, this week -- ending it today this week with the Contact Group.

I think that, over my 43 years in uniform, this is the most unified I've ever seen NATO, and I've dipped in and out of NATO over many, many years. The war has evolved over the last 11 months but the mission of this group, this Contact Group under General Austin's leadership -- under Secretary Austin's leadership, has remained the same.

We are effectively committed to support Ukraine with capabilities to defend itself against the illegal and unprovoked Russian aggression. In the words of President Biden, Secretary Austin, and many other national leaders, as much as it takes for as long as it takes in order to keep Ukraine free, independent, and sovereign.

These Contact Group meetings play an important role as we support Ukraine in the defense of its territory and they are a clear, unambiguous demonstration of the unity and resolve of the allied nations.

Yesterday, as Secretary Austin just mentioned, President Biden released our 30th security assistance package, signifying our continued commitment to Ukraine, and this package, combined with our previous one, includes combined arms maneuver capabilities with supporting artillery, equivalent to at least two combined arms maneuver brigades or six mech infantry battalions, 10 motorized infantry battalions, and four artillery battalions, along with a lot of other equipment.

This package -- this U.S. package, along with the allied donations that were indicated today, signify our collective resolve and our commitment to Ukraine to protect their population from the indiscriminate Russian attacks and to provide the armor necessary to go on the offensive, to liberate Russian-occupied Ukraine.

Additionally, this week in Germany, we began battalion and brigade collective training that I had an opportunity to visit at the Combined Arms Maneuver Training Center here in Grafenwoehr, in support of the Ukrainian Army.

That training, in addition to the equipment, will significantly increase Ukrainians' capability to defend itself from further Russian attacks and to go on the tactical and operational offensive to liberate the occupied areas.

With the training that the United States and our partners are doing, the Ukrainians will advance their command and control, their tactics, techniques and procedures, their ability to integrate fires with maneuver, and they will more effectively synchronize all of the combined arms in order to execute maneuver-based operations.

The support that we discussed today in this Contact Group meeting, the training that we discussed today and the way ahead, is really an extension of what's been going on since 2014, and today signifies the very real and tangible difference in the -- Ukraine's efforts to defend itself.

International aggression, where large countries use military force to attack smaller countries and change recognized borders, cannot be allowed to stand. Eventually, President Putin, Russia, will realize the full extent of their strategic miscalculation, but until Putin ends this war, his war of choice, the nations of this Contact Group will continue to support the defense of Ukraine in order to uphold the rules-based international order.

Thank you and I welcome your questions.

STAFF: Thank you, Mr. Secretary, Chairman.

Our first question will go to Utesh Spaneberger from ARD.

Q: Mr. Secretary of Defense, my question is, many of us thought that today we will have a breakthrough in the discussion about heavy battle tanks. You didn't mention that at all. We didn't talk about Leopard 2 or Abrams tanks. So did you talk about that today?

SEC. AUSTIN: I think you heard the -- you may have heard the German minister of defense say earlier that they've not made a decision on the provision of Leopard tanks. What we're really focused on is making sure that Ukraine has the capability that it needs to be successful right now. So we have a window of opportunity here, you know, between now and the spring when I -- you know, when -- whenever they commence their operation, their counteroffensive, and that's not a long time, and we have to pull together the right capabilities. And you heard the chairman walk through some of the substantial combat power that we and some of our allies have offered to provide.

There are tanks in that -- in that -- those offerings. Poland, for example, is -- continues to offer tanks and will provide tanks, and other countries will offer some tank -- tank capability, as well. I don't have any announcements to make on M1s, and you heard the -- the German minister of defense say that they've not made a decision on Leopards, so --

STAFF: Thank you. Next question will go to Idrees Ali, Reuters.

Q: Mr. Secretary, over the past week, a number of European countries have publicly pleaded with Germany to allow the transfer of their tanks. You met with your German counterpart yesterday and like you said, today they still have not made a decision. Are you disappointed in the German position? And how can Germany still be seen as a reliable ally, given what is widely perceived as them dragging their feet on something so simple?

And for the chairman, is there any prohibition on the use of American weapons by the Ukrainians in Crimea currently? And you've talked about how this war, like many others, has to end through a negotiated settlement. Is now the time for the Russians and Ukrainians to come to the table to talk about that?

SEC. AUSTIN: Thanks, Idrees. First, let me say that this isn't really about one single platform, and so our goal, and I think we've been fairly successful at doing this and bringing together capability, is to -- is to provide the capability that Ukraine needs to be successful in the near term. And so you've heard us talk about two battalions of Bradley infantry fighting vehicles -- very capable platform, three battalions, or a brigade's-worth of Strykers. So you add that up, that's two brigades of combat power that the U.S. is providing, along with enablers and other things.

So you look at Sweden providing a battalion of CB90s. That's an armored personnel carrier. The Germans are providing Marders, and the -- the Poles are providing a -- a battalion's-worth of mechanized capability. You heard the chairman highlight four battalions of -- of artillery, mechanized artillery that's being provided. So this is a -- this is a very, very capable package and they -- you know, if -- if employed properly, it will be -- it will enable them to be successful.

Now, we're going to sure -- ensure that we're doing everything necessary to ensure that they have the ability to employ it properly. You heard us talk about training, additional training that we're going to do. This is something that we haven't been able to do in the past. So you know, as we speak, you know, troops are being linked up with Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and they'll train for weeks not only on just how to operate the vehicles, but also on how to properly set conditions for maneuver, and then maneuver, and then, you know, how to exploit opportunities, how to breech obstacles. So I think this'll be a really, really capable package that we've put together and I really do believe that it will enable the Ukrainians to be successful going forward.

So this is not dependent upon a single platform. This is a combined-arms effort that we've brought together that I -- I truly believe is going to provide them the best opportunity for success.

GEN. MILLEY: And as the -- on your first question, typically we're not going to discuss -- I don't discuss either prohibitions or permissions, authorities on the use of weapons, et cetera. That -- that has -- that goes towards rules of engagement, and we don't typically discuss those in a public forum.

On the second question, President Biden, President Zelenskyy and most of the leaders of Europe have said that this war is likely to end in a negotiation. And from a military standpoint, this is a very, very difficult fight. This fight stretches all the way from right now, as the front line goes from all the way from Kharkiv down to Kherson, and there's significant fighting ongoing. And it's more or less a static front line right this minute, with the exception of Bakhmut and Soledar, with a significant offensive action going on really from both sides. The distance that -- for the United States, that's about from, I guess, Washington, D.C. to Atlanta. So that is a significant amount of territory, and in that territory are still remaining a lot of Russian forces in Russian-occupied Ukraine.

So from a military standpoint, I still maintain that for this year it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from all -- every inch of Ukraine and occupied -- or Russian-occupied Ukraine. That doesn't mean it can't happen; doesn't mean it won't happen, but it'd be very, very difficult.

I think what can happen is a continued defense stabilized in the front. I think it's possible to clearly do that, and I think it's, depending on the delivery and training of all of this equipment, I do think it's very, very possible to -- for the Ukrainians to run a significant tactical- or -- or even operational-level offensive operation to liberate as much Ukrainian territory as possible, and then what was -- then we'll see where it goes.

But I do think at the end of the day this war, like many wars in the past, will end at some sort negotiating table, and that'll be determined in terms of timing by the leaders of both countries, both Russia and Ukraine. President Putin could end this war today. It -- it's -- he started it. It's his war of choice, and he could end it today because it's turning into an absolute catastrophe for Russia: massive amounts of casualties, lots of other damage to the Russian military, et cetera. So he should and could end this war right now, right today.

STAFF: Thank you. Our next question will go to Ansen Sten, ZDF.

Q: Thank you very much. Mr. Secretary, is Germany doing enough in order to show real leadership in Europe? Thank you.

SEC. AUSTIN: Yes, but we can all do more, and you know, the United States and every other member of the UDC can do more.

You know, Germany has contributed a lot to this campaign. You know, from the very beginning, we saw them cycle in air defense capability, the Gepards, the Patriots most recently, IRIS-T. They've stepped up and offered to provide the Marders. They will provide the -- those Marders and conduct the training on those platforms. And we are training Ukrainian soldiers on maneuver and other things and specialty things here in Germany as well, so Germany's opened it -- continues to open its doors and make the training areas and facilities available for us to continue to do the work that we need to do.

And Germany is also training troops and training battalion and brigade headquarters. So, you know, they have a -- a big oar in the water, like the rest of the -- of Contact Group does, and they're working hand in hand with the -- with the rest of our colleagues here.

So I think Idrees asked me earlier if -- if Germany was a -- was a leader. I -- was that the right question there, Idrees?

Q: Well, I was (inaudible) how do you see them as a reliable ally?

SEC. AUSTIN: Oh yeah, okay. Yeah, they are a reliable ally and they've been that way for a very, very long time, and I truly believe that they'll continue to be a reliable ally going forward, not to mention they have -- German is host to 39,000 of my troops and their families and also 10,000 civilians here.

And so we've had a great relationship throughout over the years and I -- we'll continue to have that great relationship and Germany will continue to exercise leadership going forward, so.

STAFF: Thank you. Our next question will go to Dan LaMothe, Washington Post.

Q: Good evening, gentlemen, thanks for your time today.

Secretary Austin, a number of lawmakers and observers have said that, at this point, it makes sense to send a small number of Abrams tanks, if only to encourage Germany to unlock the Leopard tanks that they have not sent. Is that feasible? And if not, why not?

And for the Chairman please, given the amount of armor the United States and allies are sending at this point, how confident are you that they can put together a coherent offensive in coming months? To what extent -- to the extent you can, what might that look like?

And separately, you just referenced the large number of casualties. Can you give us any update on -- on what you're seeing at this point for casualties on both sides? Thanks.

SEC. AUSTIN: I think you heard the German Minister of Defense say earlier today that there's no linkage between providing M1s and providing Leopards, and I think he was pretty clear about that. So this notion of unlocking -- you know, I -- in my mind, is not -- it's not an issue, and more importantly in his mind as well.

And in terms of providing capability, what we, in the department, always look at is, you know, providing credible combat capability. We don't do things to -- or employ capabilities to -- as -- as a notion, you know, as a -- as -- you know, for -- for anything other than providing credible combat capability. And that's where our focus will be in the future, whatever we do, whatever we employ, so.

GEN. MILLEY: So Dan, on the -- in order to execute a successful offensive operation at the tactical or operational level, which is really what we're talking about here for the Ukrainians, you've got to not only man the unit, which the Ukrainians have the personnel, but they have to be trained. And so they've got to be married up with the equipment and then they've got to be trained.

And if you look at the weather and terrain, et cetera, you can see that you have a relatively short window of time to accomplish both those key tasks. So that's very, very challenging to do that. For all of these different nations that were here today, to assemble all of the equipment, get it all synchronized, get it -- get the Ukrainian troops trained, et cetera, that'll be a very, very heavy lift.

So confident -- yes, I think it can be done but I think that it'll be a challenge. There's no question about it. So we'll see. I don't want to predict one way or the other but the Ukrainian forces so far have executed, at least two and perhaps even more than that, very successful offensive operations, one up around Kharkiv, crossing the Oskil River and over into -- in -- in -- in -- into the Russian lines to the east of the -- of Kharkiv, and then they've run a very successful operation down in Kherson.

So it remains to be seen but the equipment's got to get married up with the people and people have got to get trained on the equipment and all of that's going to have to get shipped in -- into Ukraine, et cetera, all put together inside of a coherent plan.

Obviously, General Zaluzhnyi and I and others have discussed what his visions were, not in executable level detail yet but he's working on that, and we'll see which way it goes.

In terms of casualties, you know, the numbers of casualties in war are always suspect in --- but I would tell you that the Russian casualties -- last time I reported out -- on it publicly, I said it was well over 100,000. I would say it's significantly well over 100,000 now.

So the Russians have suffered a tremendous amount of casualties in their military, and -- and that includes their regular military and also their mercenaries in the Wagner Group and -- and other type forces that are fighting with the Russians. They have really suffered a lot.

Now, you saw that the Russians did a call-up of -- called out -- I think called up a mobilization of 300,000. I think they were able to get maybe 200, 250,000, something in that range. So they're replacing their losses, in terms of manpower, but they have suffered a huge amount.

Ukraine has also suffered tremendously. You know that there's a significant amount of innocent civilians that have been killed in a result of the Russian actions. The Russians are hitting civilian infrastructure. There's a significant amount of economic damage, a significant amount of damage to the energy infrastructure, and the Russian -- or the Ukrainian military has suffered a significant amount of casualties themselves.

So this is a very, very bloody war and there's significant casualties on both sides. And this is why I say that I think that -- at -- sooner or later, this is going to have to get to a negotiating table at some point in order to bring this to a conclusion, and that will have to happen when the end state, which is a free, sovereign, independent Ukraine with its territory intact, is met. When that day comes, then people will sit down and negotiate an end to this.

But there's been a huge amount of suffering on both sides.

STAFF: Ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have available today.

Mr. Secretary, General Milley, thank you both, gentlemen.

This concludes our press briefing. Thank you.

# ? Jan 21, 2023 01:09

Pine Cone Jones: Dec 6, 2009; You throw me the acorn, I throw you the whip!

https://twitter.com/GalloVOA/status/1616568432534913024

# ? Jan 21, 2023 01:31

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

mlmp08 posted:

Who did you hear that from?

Yeah idk where that's from, some of the German equipment deals are actually bizarrely generous, eg 15 leopard 2s to Slovakia in exchange for Slovakia providing 30 BMP 1s to Ukraine. Germany providing a patriot battery is also a surprisingly serious contribution. Doubly so since it appeared to come about after the spat with Poland where iirc a polish diplomat made some snarky comment to Germany that they 'should deploy a patriot battery in Ukraine then' which went over poorly... and then a week or so later Germany announced that they were providing a patriot battery to Ukraine. idk if I've ever seen a country get in a little diplomatic spat like that before and then just acquiesce.

I think Germany's public reticence makes sense insofar as giving aide to Ukraine is close to a 50/50 issue in Germany, with Scholtz personally landing on the 'we should appear to do less' end of the spectrum. Plus Germany is far more exposed to potential blowback from Russia than the US is, which Russia has repeatedly been threatening. Scholtz in particular is navigating the whole thing in a very peculiar way that maximizes the potential for confusion and for 'Germany obstructs aid once again' headlines (regardless of how grounded in fact they are). The whole kind of rabid messaging and social media ecosystem that's built up around the Ukraine war then takes those headlines and runs with it, too. It's even more contradictory now that you have Pistorius out there making statements seemingly at odds with Germany/Scholtz' previous public positions and it will be interesting to see which side wins out. Seems like Scholtz's statements are much more oriented around domestic opinion (and to some extent not overly aggravating Russia?) and Pistorius has been making statements more intended for external audiences. We'll see which side of this wins out soon, I guess.

Taking Pistorius' statements from the last few days at face value, Ukraine will end up operating Leopard 2s and Germany doesn't see reason to oppose it, but the timeline might be some to many months depending on more immediate needs. In particular, Pistorius emphasized this morning that they won't block Ukrainians from being trained on Leopards even before re-export requests are approved. Unambiguously walking back the statements that Leopards won't be forthcoming unless Ukraine gets Abrams was also a big deal that I think has been under-reported on.

anyways full disclaimer that I'm particularly not an expert on German politics

mlmp08 posted:

Full text except staffer intro is quoted below. Video and full transcript in the link. My highlights went long, but the speakers didn't have much time and packed a fair amount of points into a small period of time.

also thanks for taking the time to put these posts together

As an aside, the last week of reporting on German statements has been some of the most chaotic media reporting I've ever seen with the same statements getting reported on multiple times by the same outlets, and old statements being reported as new even after recent statements have come out reversing previous ones, and so on.

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 01:48 on Jan 21, 2023

# ? Jan 21, 2023 01:40

shame on an IGA: Apr 8, 2005

has Germany daring the United States to do something ever worked out they way they wanted it to, even a single time

# ? Jan 21, 2023 02:05

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

mlmp08 posted:

Who did you hear that from?

Germany promised a lot more than it's currently delivered and was holding out on thing it did say it would previously give

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-olalf-scholz-pressure-tank-deliveries-ukraine/

A little old but a lot of the recent announcements are likely due to pressure from Ukraine and the US and not out of sheer goodness of heart.

They've dragged on a lot of promises. And sending new tanks to NATO members for them to send old tanks to Ukraine isn't exactly a bargain for Ukraine even if it does help.

# ? Jan 21, 2023 02:12

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

CommieGIR posted:

Germany promised a lot more than it's currently delivered and was holding out on thing it did say it would previously give

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-olalf-scholz-pressure-tank-deliveries-ukraine/

A little old but a lot of the recent announcements are likely due to pressure from Ukraine and the US and not out of sheer goodness of heart.

They've dragged on a lot of promises. And sending new tanks to NATO members for them to send old tanks to Ukraine isn't exactly a bargain for Ukraine even if it does help.

The article you linked does not say that Germany is refusing to deliver gear it promised to Ukraine. It says that the German plan to negotiate to send other countries arms if those countries sent legacy equipment to Ukraine has largely been held up in failed negotiations. This is not the same thing as Germany promising Ukraine aid, and then refusing to give that promised aid to Ukraine.

Examples:

quote:

In many cases, the problem is that partner countries want better gear from Germany. Slovenia, for example, was offered 1970s-era Marder infantry vehicles but asked instead for the more modern Boxer armored fighting vehicle, officials said. Berlin declined the request, as Germany has not even sufficiently equipped its own armed forces with that model.

Things got particularly tense with Poland, which supplied around 280 T-72 tanks to Ukraine in the first months of the war and then asked Berlin to help with replacements.

�First, it took the German government months to reply, and then they offered to only send 20 Leopard 2 tanks, with the first one to be delivered in April next year and then the next ones following successively in the following quarters,� Roderich Kiesewetter, a CDU lawmaker focused on defense policy, told POLITICO.

Scholz's critics in that article aren't accusing him of failing to deliver promised aid or holding out on promised aid. They are encouraging new and distinct pledges of equipment, given the negotiation hell that the exchange program is in.

# ? Jan 21, 2023 02:22

GD_American: Jul 21, 2004; LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!

I don't envy Ukraine's balancing act in pressuring Germany if the DoD is going to stand that firmly behind them and not put any pressure on them publicly.

# ? Jan 21, 2023 02:28

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

mlmp08 posted:

The article you linked does not say that Germany is refusing to deliver gear it promised to Ukraine. It says that the German plan to negotiate to send other countries arms if those countries sent legacy equipment to Ukraine has largely been held up in failed negotiations. This is not the same thing as Germany promising Ukraine aid, and then refusing to give that promised aid to Ukraine.

Examples:

Scholz's critics in that article aren't accusing him of failing to deliver promised aid or holding out on promised aid. They are encouraging new and distinct pledges of equipment, given the negotiation hell that the exchange program is in.

They haven't refused, that's not what I said. They've drug their feet. Way different. You are misunderstanding what I said.

I'm not saying Germany isn't providing aid. I'm saying they TALK about aid a lot, but the talk hasn't matched what they deliver. Canada, the UK, and Poland have delivered more military aid than Germany has proper. Scholz is dragging his feet. And this goes back to what I was saying about Germany fears Russia might do something, despite the fact that Russia hasn't really committed to attacking any NATO members proper despite the sword rattling.

CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 02:45 on Jan 21, 2023

# ? Jan 21, 2023 02:42

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

do they even talk about it that much? germany largely seems pretty hesitant to message aggressively about how much aide they provide. france is the standout there for talking but delivering comparatively little

# ? Jan 21, 2023 02:46

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

CommieGIR posted:

They haven't refused, that's not what I said. They've drug their feet. Way different. You are misunderstanding what I said.

If I am misunderstanding you, I'm going to need more help. What did you mean in your claims below?

CommieGIR posted:

Germany promised a lot more than it's currently delivered and was holding out on thing it did say it would previously give

CommieGIR posted:

Last I heard the amount of material Germany has actually provided is misleading and they provided maybe 10% of what they actually claim they have

E: Like, what is an item or aid package Germany promised and claimed they delivered but then decided to "hold out" or mislead people?

mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 02:52 on Jan 21, 2023

# ? Jan 21, 2023 02:47

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

mlmp08 posted:

If I am misunderstanding you, I'm going to need more help. What did you mean in your claims below?

No, mlmp, Ive done this discussion with you before you have a habit of refusing to accept anything contrary to what you say. I'm not discussing it further with you.

# ? Jan 21, 2023 02:57

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

That�s fine. Just thought may e there was some aid package you knew about that Germany cancelled or decided to hold out on or misled people about.

If not, different discussion.

# ? Jan 21, 2023 03:00

GD_American: Jul 21, 2004; LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!

https://time.com/6248929/navy-seal-killed-fighting-ukraine/

quote:

former American Navy SEAL was killed this week during Russia�s assault on eastern Ukraine while fighting alongside Ukrainian forces, a Navy official tells TIME.

Daniel W. Swift, a Navy Special Warfare Operator First Class who had gone AWOL, died Jan. 18 after suffering injuries with a unit under attack by Russia, the official said.

The Navy confirmed that Swift has been in �an active deserter status since March 11, 2019,� but did not provide any additional information. It wasn�t yet known how long Swift was in Ukraine and why he was fighting there.

Swift, who is from Oregon, first enlisted in 2005, according to his releasable service records obtained by TIME. The records don�t detail any of his deployments or SEAL teams he may have served on. They list assignments with a Naval Special Warfare �Cold Weather Detachment� out of Kodiak, Ak. in 2007 and separate stints with two �West Coast-based Special Warfare Unit(s)� from July 2007 to January 2014. Beginning in August 2017, Swift was with a �West Coast Special Warfare Unit.�

Special operations forces, like Navy SEALs, conduct dangerous and secret missions throughout the world. Swift�s records list several awards that imply combat deployments, including an Iraq Campaign Medal, an Afghanistan Campaign Medal, a Global War on Terrorism Expeditionary Medal and a Legion of Merit. But the records do not provide any additional information related to Swift�s 2019 classification as an �active deserter,� which caused him to lose his status as a Navy SEAL.

Since Russia first invaded Ukraine last February, the Biden Administration has insisted that U.S. troops will not fight in Ukraine and encouraged Americans not to travel to fight there. But thousands of people from dozens of countries have gone to Ukraine to join the fight against Russia.

The U.S. State Department wouldn�t confirm Swift�s identity Friday but acknowledged in a statement that an American was killed in action.

�We can confirm the recent death of a U.S. citizen fighting in Ukraine,� the statement says. �We are in touch with his family and providing all possible consular assistance. Out of respect for the privacy of the family during this difficult time, we have nothing further to add.�

# ? Jan 21, 2023 03:00

Soul Dentist: Mar 17, 2009

mlmp08 posted:

If I am misunderstanding you, I'm going to need more help. What did you mean in your claims below?

E: Like, what is an item or aid package Germany promised and claimed they delivered but then decided to "hold out" or mislead people?

This may be sealioning but there's a lotta receipts! What did Germany withhold?

# ? Jan 21, 2023 03:02

SlowBloke: Aug 14, 2017

One item that might get lost in the "Germany isn't delivering poo poo" issue is that a lot of their warehouse items might be in an atrocious state of disrepair,
so the holdup might be to not ship broken stuff like they did with the expired iglas at the start of the war.

# ? Jan 21, 2023 09:11

psydude: Apr 1, 2008

SlowBloke posted:

One item that might get lost in the "Germany isn't delivering poo poo" issue is that a lot of their warehouse items might be in an atrocious state of disrepair,
so the holdup might be to not ship broken stuff like they did with the expired iglas at the start of the war.

Sure, but why are they preventing other countries from sending tanks?

# ? Jan 21, 2023 09:31

SlowBloke: Aug 14, 2017

psydude posted:

Sure, but why are they preventing other countries from sending tanks?

I have a hunch that other European countries warehousing procedures are as hosed as Germany so it will pretty much destroy the Leo export reputation if a potential client will see them destroyed by being put in a warehouse for a bit.

# ? Jan 21, 2023 09:38

DTurtle: Apr 10, 2011

psydude posted:

Sure, but why are they preventing other countries from sending tanks?

Because they aren't.

# ? Jan 21, 2023 11:45

MonkeyLibFront: Feb 26, 2003; Where's the cake?

SlowBloke posted:

I have a hunch that other European countries warehousing procedures are as hosed as Germany so it will pretty much destroy the Leo export reputation if a potential client will see them destroyed by being put in a warehouse for a bit.

Pretty much this a lot of contractors who are supposed to keep kit in a state of readiness fail and deliver freshly painted piles of poo poo that take months if not years to rectify.

# ? Jan 21, 2023 13:22

standard.deviant: May 17, 2012; Globally Indigent

Time Magazine posted:

Swift�s records list several awards that imply combat deployments, including an Iraq Campaign Medal, an Afghanistan Campaign Medal, a Global War on Terrorism Expeditionary Medal and a Legion of Merit. But the records do not provide any additional information related to Swift�s 2019 classification as an �active deserter,� which caused him to lose his status as a Navy SEAL.

That seems odd to me, because I�m used to the Legion of Merit being mostly for O-6+ or command E-9s. Did the Navy use it as an intermediate decoration between the BSM and Silver Star before the V device stopped being authorized?

# ? Jan 21, 2023 13:43

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Rolling stone has an article on him that gives a lot more detail

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/former-navy-seal-killed-ukraine-battle-1234665040/

divorced, 4 kids, worked for a couple of police departments, then fled the US with a felony bench warrant for false imprisonment related to his divorce

# ? Jan 21, 2023 14:26

Vahakyla: May 3, 2013

Apparently his cop career had issues too. Seems like marriage woes and going nuts towards his wife combined with his career detonating made him feel like there weren�t a lot of options.

# ? Jan 21, 2023 14:42

Sexual Lorax: Mar 17, 2004; HERE'S TO FUCKING; Fun Shoe

cant really fault a guy for going out that way if he has the specific kind of brokebrain that legitimately believed his status in hell is determined by the size of the honor guard he takes with him

i mean its not often you hear about these types killing the right people on their way out

# ? Jan 21, 2023 14:55

GD_American: Jul 21, 2004; LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!

yeah to be honest too many of these cases end in two adult size bodybags and four small ones being wheeled out of a house, so taking his very particular set of skills out on Russians instead of his children seems like the right ending to me

# ? Jan 21, 2023 15:11

Vahakyla: May 3, 2013

Also not taking it out on the cop career seems to be a net benefit.

# ? Jan 21, 2023 15:23

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# ? Jun 5, 2024 06:09

Blistex: Oct 30, 2003; Macho Business
Donkey Wrestler

SlowBloke posted:

I have a hunch that other European countries warehousing procedures are as hosed as Germany so it will pretty much destroy the Leo export reputation if a potential client will see them destroyed by being put in a warehouse for a bit.

I don't know if I missed something, but has there been an indication that German Leo 2's that have been stored have not been maintained, or was it the article mentioning how the few dozen tanks that Rheinmetall had laying around their factory would take years to get working. *

*the theory being that those tanks were lemons/testing platforms/returns under warranty that were never maintained because they never imagined they would ever sell them

# ? Jan 21, 2023 15:47

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Internet VFW > Ukraine: The Aristoblyats

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