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Yeah, I would be entirely unsurprised if they remember the burner's Danish citizenship in like June, then do an “EU bad” somehow, and sort it out.
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Jan 23, 2023 20:36
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Yeah, I would be entirely unsurprised if they remember the burner's Danish citizenship in like June, then do an “EU bad” somehow, and sort it out. Sweden still hasn't delivered on their deal with regards to the Kurds (and realistically can't) which appears to be non-negotiable for Erdogan.
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Jan 23, 2023 20:39
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Der Kyhe posted:https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-should-not-expect-turkeys-support-nato-membership-after-stockholm-protest-2023-01-23/ Well, on the plus (?) side, Erdogan just moved up the next election by one month, so I guess that also moves up by one month the eventual decision, although whether it's before the election who knows, as I have no idea how expanding NATO would play with the Turkish electorate. Or how much the electorate really matters, since Erdogan is a whisker away from going full dictator. Also their presence/absence in NATO is operationally irrelevant to the Ukraine War, unless Putin happens to go full Operation Barbarossa and invade Finland in the meanwhile.
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Jan 23, 2023 20:42
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TheRat posted:Sweden still hasn't delivered on their deal with regards to the Kurds (and realistically can't) which appears to be non-negotiable for Erdogan. It's 100% posturing, he knows that Sweden can't deliver. Meanwhile Sweden has already lifted the arms exports embargo, so he's already gotten something out of it. He's gonna milk this for as long as he can for his domestic and international benefit and then he'll agree.
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Jan 23, 2023 20:48
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TheRat posted:Sweden still hasn't delivered on their deal with regards to the Kurds (and realistically can't) which appears to be non-negotiable for Erdogan. Similarly to other autocrats, he made up a ridiculous stance for non-reasons, and now feels compelled to hold it. Since not upholding it would make him look weak, due to the specific manner he painted himself into that corner with, until elections you should not expect a major change in his behaviour. After the election, however, it's going to be years until someone can attempt to challenge him meaningfully. I would argue that then his choice then will be closer to something like between “don't get anything” and “get whatever US and Sweden is offering, and a reputation boost”. Admittedly, though, I am assuming that he's not even a remotely principled person, both religiously and otherwise.
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Jan 23, 2023 20:53
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But since he is an autocrat I wouldn't expect him to change his stance post election either. Going back on a do-or-die matter relating to the Kurds would be extremely humiliating for him as a strongman.
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Jan 23, 2023 20:55
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TheRat posted:But since he is an autocrat I wouldn't expect him to change his stance post election either. Going back on a do-or-die matter relating to the Kurds would be extremely humiliating for him as a strongman. We can still hope he loses the election and gets replaced. Would be a funny end to this farce, New Guy going "oh yeah, sure" on the issue 
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Jan 23, 2023 20:59
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I have a feeling that that election is going to be pretty wild, IIRC Erdogan hasn't been doing too hot in the polls, he's an authoritarian and an aspiring dictator, but he's not really quite there yet.Libluini posted:We can still hope he loses the election and gets replaced. Would be a funny end to this farce, New Guy going "oh yeah, sure" on the issue It still bears mentioning that the whole image of "super anti-Kurd" or whatever of Erdogan and his party is not a very old one, and actually appealing to conservative voters in Turkey's south east, including many Kurds, who were also explicitly courted with electoral promises (that were at the time carried through) of lessening restrictions on using the Kurdish language in media and culture, was a big part of how the AKP built its early power base and got into power. It's not a given that the Kemalists/Republicans or whoever would replace him would have a softer stance on this issue. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 21:36 on Jan 23, 2023 |
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Jan 23, 2023 21:32
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Turkey had some crazy hyper inflation, IIRC,(like three digits, IIRC?) so in a Democracy would would expect Erdogan to be in trouble..TheRat posted:But since he is an autocrat I wouldn't expect him to change his stance post election either. Going back on a do-or-die matter relating to the Kurds would be extremely humiliating for him as a strongman. There may be some conditions involving F-16s which he may find compelling.
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Jan 23, 2023 21:49
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OddObserver posted:Turkey had some crazy hyper inflation, IIRC,(like three digits, IIRC?) so in a Democracy would would expect Erdogan to be in trouble.. For people who aren't aware of the F-16 thing OddObserver mentioned, it's this: https://www.defensenews.com/global/2023/01/18/turkey-f-16-sale-in-limbo-amid-lockheed-backlog/
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Jan 23, 2023 22:06
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Moon Slayer posted:https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1617590757023690752?t=6IKmjulmyoFuQsqokAhz2A&s=19
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Jan 23, 2023 22:16
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DTurtle posted:That last tweet is the most important one: the foreign minister and the vice chancellor have now both said that deliveries of Leopard 2 tanks by other countries will not be blocked. No. Habeck said *should* not stand in the way. Baerbock went further when she said Germany *would* not stand in the way. It seems like she got a talking to in the meantime since, when asked the next day whether she was speaking for the government, she dodged the question. See https://twitter.com/ulrichspeck/status/1617524273043886089 It's still up to Scholz and Scholz... does not seem to be in much of a hurry.
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Jan 23, 2023 22:40
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Zelensky commemorated Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine with anniversary of 1863 rebellion against Russian Empire https://twitter.com/nashaniva/status/1617634527706320896?t=_bCCYoj-DsP8gWKfmN9FZA&s=19 Seemingly intentionally omitting Belarus. Feels kind of petty to omit those who fallen (and everone together failed) 160 years ago due to Luka's regime now. Not to mention its very important to remind still politically uninvolved Belarusians about every rebellion their forefathers done.
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Jan 23, 2023 22:47
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In some less tank and more people-oriented news: According to a Russian NGO, the number of ex-prisoners fighting on the Russian side is shrinking. There's still around 10k left, but too many have either died, been captured, or deserted. Seems like Russia's prisons are slowly running dry.
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Jan 23, 2023 22:47
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Russia frankly doesn't have the demographics for the human wave tactics they've been doing.
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Jan 23, 2023 23:01
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Morrow posted:Russia frankly doesn't have the demographics for the human wave tactics they've been doing. They were a dead man walking since the fall of the Soviet Union, a decent theory is Putin knew the longer he waited the less men he'd have to try this stunt, which is why he pulled the trigger despite the risks that would have been obvious even to him. They have enough men to do this war right now, thankfully they're so corrupt/incompetent/badly equipped that they're still losing. But yes, this war is massively accelerating the ticking clock on the end of the current Russian state. I imagine there will still be a Russia 10 years from now, but it will sure look different.
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Jan 23, 2023 23:24
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Morrow posted:Russia frankly doesn't have the demographics for the human wave tactics they've been doing. Sure thing ..... just wait the next weeks/months when the newly trained 200k/300k russian troops will be deployed in ukraine. At that point, the comedian zelensky what will ask in despair to his masters here in the west? some nukes to launch towards moscow? the Circus of Madness keeps goin' on. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Knightsoul fucked around with this message at 23:29 on Jan 23, 2023 |
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Jan 23, 2023 23:27
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Knightsoul posted:Sure thing ..... just wait the next weeks/months when the newly trained 200k/300k russian troops will be deployed in ukraine. That drug addict Nazi is going to stuff his Pockets and rum off to the west......,
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Jan 23, 2023 23:42
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Knightsoul posted:Sure thing ..... just wait the next weeks/months when the newly trained 200k/300k russian troops will be deployed in ukraine. What the gently caress is this lol
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Jan 23, 2023 23:44
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Knightsoul posted:Sure thing ..... just wait the next weeks/months when the newly trained 200k/300k russian troops will be deployed in ukraine. Do you really think that Zelensky is entirely a servant of the west? Do the people of Ukraine have no say over their country being invaded? I don't give a drat if Ukraine's entry into NATO was a no-no for Russia as you claim, they're still the ones who invaded. I can warn you not to do something legal I don't like, but when I strike you after you do it, I am the one who has committed a crime. After looking through some of your recent posts, I've come to the assumption you're an excellent troll, or a very narrowminded Italian who bemoans the loss of pleasant relations with Russians, who love to visit your country and call it 'Paese del Sole' while at the same time describes Ukraine as 'a distant eastern land from us and that no italian cares about'. Ukraine is literally closer to Italy, perhaps a lesson in where countries are in relation to Italy is needed? Or maybe find somewhere else to regurgitate your talking points? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 23, 2023 23:50
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But doctor, I am the great comedian Zelensky!
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Jan 23, 2023 23:51
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Knightsoul posted:the Circus of Madness keeps goin' on. Don't sign your posts (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 23, 2023 23:55
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Knightsoul posted:Sure thing ..... just wait the next weeks/months when the newly trained 200k/300k russian troops will be deployed in ukraine. how's living in alternate reality where this war isn't a total failure for russia?
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Jan 24, 2023 00:30
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Knightsoul posted:Sure thing ..... just wait the next weeks/months when the newly trained 200k/300k russian troops will be deployed in ukraine. I don't enjoy dogpiling but I wanna let you in on a really big open secret that presents a problem for this narrative. Ukraine is also training replacement troops too. And on the new hardware that hasn't even entered the field yet. Infact, the big victories in the north before winter was done by it's first series of new recruits.. 
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Jan 24, 2023 00:53
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How is it this thread all of a sudden go so popular with the chuds? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 24, 2023 02:32
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Morrow posted:Russia frankly doesn't have the demographics for the human wave tactics they've been doing. The raw population numbers indicate that both sides do in fact "have the demographics" to fuel this war for years to come. Russia actually has an advantage over Ukraine in this regard, being a sprawling country with relatively vast numbers of people.
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Jan 24, 2023 02:36
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Vox Nihili posted:The raw population numbers indicate that both sides do in fact "have the demographics" to fuel this war for years to come. Russia actually has an advantage over Ukraine in this regard, being a sprawling country with relatively vast numbers of people. Yeah the real advantage is that Russia can still maintain shell and bullet factories without fear of losing them suddenly to bombing, whatever gets sent to Kyiv can't reach Novgorod
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Jan 24, 2023 02:41
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ZombieLenin posted:Wouldn't that be Occidentalist, since it readies the West as any entity beholden to exploitation demanded by arms manufacturers? Eastern Europe has absolutely experienced orientalism. Sure not to the same degree as any given part of Asia, but it absolutely has. I almost think Putin was partway counting on Ukraine still seeming like an exotic backward land of Borat clones to westerners, hoping they would shrug in that sort of "oh what can you do, those ancient tribal hatreds of those Slavic commie serfs"
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Jan 24, 2023 03:07
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US Senior Military Official (SMO) brief. Intro/Excerpts, etc. Not a lot here today. Link: https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3275361/senior-military-official-holds-a-background-briefing/ Highlights: -Ukraine attempting counteroffensive in Kreminna, Russia still on offense vicinity of Bakhmut. Otherwise, lines are largely static. -Takes a moment to highlight ally/partner contributions to Ukraine, as covered in the previous Contact Group announcements. -US observing "tens of thousands" of Russian replacement troops across the front lines. Not very well-trained or equipped, but thousands of fresh troops. Not necessarily as whole standalone formations, but tens of thousands across the front lines, replacing other units or filling personnel gaps in existing formations. -SMO not going to comment on estimates of Ukrainian casualties that have been in press lately, or the Norwegian estimates of Russian casualties beyond what the CJCS said last week. (That was significantly well over 100,000 casualties for Russia and a high number of casualties for Ukraine.) -Russia continues to seek more drone capability from Iran -I cut it for length below, but SMO was asked about sending one Abrams tank to "unlock" other tank shipments, and did not want to comment on it. Among other reasons, the proposal was from a congress member, and the DOD typically doesn't opine on congress members' recommendations if there isn't a very concrete or direct answer to give. -Bradleys are weeks not months away, but US will let Ukraine announce their arrival in country on Ukraine's timeline. -DOD still argues that M1 Abrams is too logistically intensive to be rapidly useful to Ukraine. Also says that M1s are part of the US requirements to meet US global national security requirements. quote:SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Hey, well, thanks very much for joining us today for this background update on Ukraine.
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Jan 24, 2023 04:11
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Vox Nihili posted:The raw population numbers indicate that both sides do in fact "have the demographics" to fuel this war for years to come. Russia actually has an advantage over Ukraine in this regard, being a sprawling country with relatively vast numbers of people. That only matters if the number of deaths are equal or the Russians are losing less. If Ukraine saaay....kills 3 Russians for every 1 Ukrainian? They both run out of people at the same time, and you now have two countries that are completely incapable of functioning. Except only one is going to get serious external rebuilding aid. Numbers don't fix stupid, you can only plug holes with bodies if you stop making new holes. It's still a horrific situation and the sheer number of people Russia has can absolutely drag this out long after the outcome is clear.
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Jan 24, 2023 04:19
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Mulva posted:That only matters if the number of deaths are equal or the Russians are losing less. If Ukraine saaay....kills 3 Russians for every 1 Ukrainian? They both run out of people at the same time, and you now have two countries that are completely incapable of functioning. I’m not so sure. If the war plays out as you describe, Ukraine will be reduced to rubble. Russia has population, landmass with which to scatter its industries, and is (thus far) the only side capable of power projection on the enemy’s land (some drone strikes notwithstanding). If Ukraine’s Western backers continue to insist that advanced, long range weaponry not be used on Russian soil, it will be a long slog to push the Russian armies back to whatever border the Ukrainians will be happy with. Ukraine has always been the underdog in this conflict, at least to me. The fact that they now have some powerful friends sending them weapons helps, but hardly evens things out. The Russians now occupy vast amounts of the country, with their homeland secure, while Ukrainian cities and infrastructure are targeted with long range missiles.
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Jan 24, 2023 04:56
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None of that matters. Literally none of that matters. If Russia keeps sending it's men into stupid meat-grinders to accomplish nothing and Ukraine just...keeps letting them do that? Every single advantage Russia has on paper is meaningless. Again, that just turns their situation to neutral. Which, as I said, just breaks both countries. It doesn't matter where their factories are, it doesn't matter how big it is, it does not matter what their population is. They have to stop losing men pointlessly to capitalize on anything. They have not. And they seem to be increasingly throwing untrained and badly equipped troops at the problem hoping it will get better. It will not. It will, in fact, get worse. Getting worse is the worst possible thing that happens [For them at least], because then that neutral situation of their sheer loving incompetence being matched by having more people turns into their sheer loving incompetence causing them to lose in spite of having more people. They may or may not already be at that point, but at the least they certainly aren't in a winning dynamic right now. Mulva fucked around with this message at 05:30 on Jan 24, 2023 |
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Jan 24, 2023 05:21
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If both sides buckle down and fight to the last man... I'm fairly confident Russia will win, short of vastly increased amounts of international assistance to Ukraine, though it would be an incredibly Pyrrhic victory. I think that's a big if, though. An enormous one, really. Some resolution far short of that seems much more likely.
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Jan 24, 2023 05:35
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Bremen posted:If both sides buckle down and fight to the last man... I'm fairly confident Russia will win, short of vastly increased amounts of international assistance to Ukraine, though it would be an incredibly Pyrrhic victory. That still doesn't solve the problem of a year ago where "winning" for Russia is meaningless when they don't have the men, time, or competence to occupy the country. I'm starting to doubt the Kremlin could even define what a victory looks like anymore.
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Jan 24, 2023 06:08
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Mulva posted:None of that matters. Literally none of that matters. If Russia keeps sending it's men into stupid meat-grinders to accomplish nothing and Ukraine just...keeps letting them do that? What are you talking about? How are these advantages meaningless? Russia launches strategic bombers from out of Ukraine's reach. Russia ships in artillery shells by rail from its factories to the front that are, again, out of Ukraine's reach. Those things absolutely matter, because they vastly reduce Ukraine's capacity to strike at weak points in Russia's war machine, whereas Russia has the capacity to reduce almost any facility in Ukraine to rubble. The battles being fought now are very much the opposite of meaningless. Territorial control is being decided on a day-to-day basis. Tens of thousands of lives are at stake. Both sides are incurring enormous losses.
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Jan 24, 2023 06:20
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Pook Good Mook posted:That still doesn't solve the problem of a year ago where "winning" for Russia is meaningless when they don't have the men, time, or competence to occupy the country. I'm starting to doubt the Kremlin could even define what a victory looks like anymore. I think for Russia a victory would be "peace deal now with the current borders and an end to sanctions". What they've taken is the most Russian speaking and pro-(or at least less anti-)Russian, and resistance to occupation would be hampered by the fact that Russia already conscripted most of the fighting age men. I'm not sure they ever intended to fully occupy Ukraine to begin with, they just planned to take Kyiv as a means to forcing a surrender. Ukraine seems unlikely to give them that deal, though, and Russia's attempt to force them to submit through the terror bombing doesn't seem to be working either. Russia might try to reinforce and go for Kyiv again, or else just bulk up the defenders enough to try to make a Ukrainian offensive unfeasible and then just try to wait things out.
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Jan 24, 2023 06:21
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Vox Nihili posted:... whereas Russia has the capacity to reduce almost any facility in Ukraine to rubble. Citation needed... Russia doesn't have anywhere near that capability with conventional arms. For evidence - the entire war to this point.
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Jan 24, 2023 06:48
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Vox Nihili posted:, whereas Russia has the capacity to reduce almost any facility in Ukraine to rubble. Yet at the 12th month of war Ukraine still has operational airfields and repair facilities and Russia wastes its missile arsenal on terror bombing.
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Jan 24, 2023 08:35
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Morrow posted:Russia frankly doesn't have the demographics for the human wave tactics they've been doing. And this is maybe even more true for Ukraine which have a similar terrible population pyramid but a third of the population of Russia. So unless they can trade better than 1:3 for each Ukrainian defender spent, then they too are getting shafted just as much. And if you think that Ukraine is trading at a worse ratio than that, for example 1:2 (which sounds good in terms of attrition) then they are getting shafted more than Russia. Also, in war one generally tries to trade territory for lives, or lives for territory. So far it appears to be the case that Ukraine has opted to hold onto territory with lives because anything they lose can very well be permanent at this point. Sadly this looks to be costing them a whole bunch of lives because Russian artillery is still at a great advantage. Thus it wouldn't surprise me if Ukraine in aggregate have been trading at a significantly worse than a 1:3 ratio in places like Bakhmut/Soledar etc, especially if they just take out mobiks and lose veterans.
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Jan 24, 2023 09:45
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Bremen posted:I think for Russia a victory would be "peace deal now with the current borders and an end to sanctions". Absolutely not. For starters, formally they’ve annexed more land than practically.
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Jan 24, 2023 09:58
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