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SplitSoul posted:How can the escalation both be "carefully managed" and "headed towards some very dangerous places for all of us", is what I'm asking. Doesn't seem particularly careful if that's the case. it's carefully managed in that the relevant agents are taking care in managing it. it's headed towards some very dangerous places because that's what an escalatory spiral leads. if the present policy of foreign armaments doesn't result in ukrainian victory on the battlefield, we either have to admit defeat or do something else more dangerous. if it does look as though it's going to result in ukrainian victory, the russians either have to admit defeat or do something else more dangerous. thus far, every step of the way has been doing something a little more dangerous, increasing the costs sunk into the conflict (which now include core capabilities of NATO minors). that means that the realised cost of defeat is greater, which makes admitting defeat ever more costly. what i mean is that this is a ship steering into ever more dangerous waters, not one which is careening into an oil tanker. the risks are going to keep increasing, but there is an intelligence at work to try and manage it.
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Jan 20, 2023 15:20
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V. Illych L. posted:it's carefully managed in that the relevant agents are taking care in managing it. it's headed towards some very dangerous places because that's what an escalatory spiral leads. if the present policy of foreign armaments doesn't result in ukrainian victory on the battlefield, we either have to admit defeat or do something else more dangerous. if it does look as though it's going to result in ukrainian victory, the russians either have to admit defeat or do something else more dangerous. thus far, every step of the way has been doing something a little more dangerous, increasing the costs sunk into the conflict (which now include core capabilities of NATO minors). that means that the realised cost of defeat is greater, which makes admitting defeat ever more costly. Okay, so not "careful" in the sense of "cautious", got it. Poland is currently advertising that it will send tanks regardless of German approval, upending any remaining semblance of arms control.
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Jan 20, 2023 16:44
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Another possibility is a never-ending proxy war, there sure have been a lot of those in the past 50 years. Although some of those were also on a knife's edge of turning into nuclear armageddon so uh E: that would be horrible for people in Ukraine and across the border, I'm not suggesting its a good idea. Fruits of the sea fucked around with this message at 17:23 on Jan 20, 2023 |
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Jan 20, 2023 17:20
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SplitSoul posted:Okay, so not "careful" in the sense of "cautious", got it. Poland is currently advertising that it will send tanks regardless of German approval, upending any remaining semblance of arms control. Poland sending tanks to help defend Ukraine isn't 'upending any remaining semblance of arms control'. You know what's a shining example of abandoning any remaining semblance of arms control? Invading Ukraine. Sending weapon systems has been a proportional and reasonable response to the ongoing war crimes and crimes against humanity being committed by Russia right next door to Poland. Tanks are overdue.
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Jan 20, 2023 18:33
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Rust Martialis posted:Poland sending tanks to help defend Ukraine isn't 'upending any remaining semblance of arms control'. Arms control means that Germany, which produces the tanks for Poland, has final say over their transfer to a third nation, which Poland is contractually bound by. It's standard operating procedure. You don't have to redefine words to make an argument, in fact, having a debate is much easier if you don't.
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Jan 20, 2023 19:03
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Fruits of the sea posted:Another possibility is a never-ending proxy war, there sure have been a lot of those in the past 50 years. Although some of those were also on a knife's edge of turning into nuclear armageddon so uh i don't think that this is feasible even in the medium term. in war, once a side is exhausted it's exhausted. if ukraine stops being able to fight (because of the will to fight collapsing, manpower issues, financial crisis, whatever), it's not going to be able to keep fighting - at that point we'd have to engage in direct intervention (i.e. a hopefully limited direct conventional war with russia) to prevent russian victory. if the russian state is unable to keep itself together, it's not going to keep fighting. the southern/eastern areas of ukraine where the fighting is taking place has been mostly self-cleansed of people who are violently opposed to russian presence, so i don't think that a serious insurgency in those areas is likely. to get more on-topic, i don't believe that the political will to enter open war with russia is there just yet, but it's certainly the logical end of our present escalatory spiral unless russia collapses. Rust Martialis posted:Poland sending tanks to help defend Ukraine isn't 'upending any remaining semblance of arms control'. you can believe that ukraine's sponsors should be sending leopard 2s and also believe that openly violating established practices for arms control will probably have some negative consequences down the line V. Illych L. fucked around with this message at 21:47 on Jan 20, 2023 |
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Jan 20, 2023 21:43
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In any event I keep seeing statements that Germany keeps saying nobody's actually requested to transfer tanks. And the frankly more moral thing to do if they do refuse transfer is to send them anyway. It's mostly just the irrelevant fringe that don't want to support Ukraine in any event who'll be upset on social media. But there's always that type of useful idiot.
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Jan 20, 2023 23:38
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i think that we should probably not destroy our entire paradigm of arms control (such as it is), but i'm a tankie useful idiot so what do i know
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Jan 21, 2023 00:16
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Right, only the extremist fringe on social media is concerned with arms control, that's an excellent point I hadn't considered.
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Jan 21, 2023 00:18
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Jan 21, 2023 16:10
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Fwiw, it seems the Germans finally said "we're still undecided" about Leo2 transfers at Ramstein. Source: DW news radio
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Jan 21, 2023 21:06
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NATO ascension going great.
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Jan 21, 2023 22:15
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This one brought my friend to tears. Thank you.
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Jan 21, 2023 23:47
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SplitSoul posted:NATO ascension going great. Skända flaggan, kuken.
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Jan 22, 2023 00:53
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Jan 22, 2023 08:54
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Afaik, according to Swedish law, burning is the only correct way to dispose of a Swedish flag sooo...good on those boys?
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Jan 22, 2023 09:01
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SplitSoul posted:NATO ascension going great. loving hilarious to watch them fail the ignite it for minutes as they like many drunken football fans before them discover that cheap textiles don't primarily burn, they melt.
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Jan 22, 2023 09:06
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I didn't save the tweet, but someone made an example like "what if someone had burned a bible outside the US embassy in Sweden" Implying that it would have been very controversial and that they had probably been arrested. And I am just baffled at how poorly Turkish nationalists understand us. We're not even on the same planet. This team based online slap fight is going to radicalize a bunch of Swedish leftists into Islamophobia and racism just on how dumb and belligerent Erdrogans supporters are. Feliday Melody fucked around with this message at 09:27 on Jan 22, 2023 |
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Jan 22, 2023 09:23
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I do appreciate seeing the attempts of Insulting Swedishness. They’re all pretty futile, but wow, gotta admire the effort there.
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Jan 22, 2023 09:32
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I wonder, will the US do anything to help Sweden here, like tell Erdogan behind the scenes to stop loving around and give him something in exchange, or are they ambivalent as to if the swedes join or not. And do they care if that means Finland doesn't join too? And if both countries don't join, then what? Some kind of finnish-swedish alliance?
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Jan 22, 2023 09:37
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AFAIK Turkey is ok with Finland joining but it raises issues for Finland joining but Sweden not because our militaries and plans are somewhat integrated already and it would complicate things. Add to that the shock of Sweden pulling the trigger on EU membership in early 90's that left its mark into Finnish foreign policy that forced Finland into reactive state, the boomer politicians who remember it are hemming and hawing with this "trauma" that should we now do the same or not and what would it mean. It's complicated.
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Jan 22, 2023 09:53
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teen witch posted:I do appreciate seeing the attempts of Insulting Swedishness. They’re all pretty futile, but wow, gotta admire the effort there. Yeah, Erdogan would get much better ideas from random Danes, Norwegians and Finns. Q: What is the most insulting thing to call a Swede? A: 'Swedish'.
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Jan 22, 2023 09:55
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His Divine Shadow posted:I wonder, will the US do anything to help Sweden here, like tell Erdogan behind the scenes to stop loving around and give him something in exchange, or are they ambivalent as to if the swedes join or not. And do they care if that means Finland doesn't join too? The way I understand it is that the US is doing a lot of the work in the backrooms. But Erdrogan invested a large part of his own political capital into putting Sweden in its place to show that he is strong on foreign policy. The whole thing got its own momentum now and his original plans which was probably wresting a few tangible concessions from Sweden, Finland and the US has long been obscured in favour of just trying to maintain his tough guy image. And somehow creating a Scandinavia/Turkish cultural conflict from scratch that will probably last for years. For example, I'm a woman in the guard. And watching Turkish nationalists mock Försvarsmaktens inclusivity campaign. Throwing in a bunch of homophobia and talking about what the Russian soldiers will be doing to us. It does provoke some emotions. I had no particular feelings on Turkey before. But I can see this upsetting a lot of people. Edrogan is not an autocrat. He still has to juggle a bunch of local factions for support and show that he is indeed the toughest and mightiest leader. So he could easily get himself into a situation where he literally can't approve Sweden's NATO application without committing political suicide because it would make him look weak after all this cultural fighting. Erdrogan desperately needed an advisor to tell him early on what he could actually get in practise before he started making demands and staked his career on them.
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Jan 22, 2023 09:57
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Good thing there's no existing ill will towards Turkish people and their descendants in Scandinavia. The culture war is not gonna get better from Turkey/Erdogan actually taking the opposite position.
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Jan 22, 2023 10:08
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BonHair posted:Good thing there's no existing ill will towards Turkish people and their descendants in Scandinavia. The culture war is not gonna get better from Turkey/Erdogan actually taking the opposite position. You guys are *still* mad about the meatball ad? 
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Jan 22, 2023 10:12
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the americans probably are working off the assumption that turkey is an incredibly much more valuable ally and that they have a lot more leverage in this alliance than sweden does, and therefore is not putting in undue effort to try and shift the turks on this issue. sweden is already firmly in the US zone of influence, regardless of NATO - and now that the process of joining is ongoing, any snags will probably work themselves out in time.
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Jan 22, 2023 10:35
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MiddleOne posted:loving hilarious to watch them fail the ignite it for minutes as they like many drunken football fans before them discover that cheap textiles don't primarily burn, they melt. https://metro.co.uk/2018/12/11/brexiteer-fails-burn-eu-flag-eu-rules-flammable-material-8229570/
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Jan 22, 2023 10:37
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tbf the wording of the deal does heavily imply that extraditions of kurdish opposition figures to turkey are going to increase (intensify work to extradite, "take concrete steps" on the extradition of "criminal terrorists" etc.) and it's not completely insane for the turks to say that the swedes haven't fulfilled their end of the bargain. even itt people have been saying that turkey hasn't really been getting that many concessions out of sweden, and they clearly were expecting something more substantial in return for dropping their objections. these objections are also formally reasonable in the context of what NATO does - if turkey decides that sweden is harbouring people who are a threat to turkish national security, that is clearly something that they'd want to address before committing to a formal military alliance.
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Jan 22, 2023 10:50
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V. Illych L. posted:the americans probably are working off the assumption that turkey is an incredibly much more valuable ally and that they have a lot more leverage in this alliance than sweden does, and therefore is not putting in undue effort to try and shift the turks on this issue. It really can't be overstated how much more important Türkiye is to NATO by every conceivable metric.
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Jan 22, 2023 17:54
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I dont think there is any political capital in Sweden to give Erdogan anything more than he may or may not have already gotten. Even if there was a legal avenue. Or even if there was a will... which i doubt. It would be electorally useless, almost no one on the street gives enough of a poo poo about about NATO or Turkey. The best Erdogan will get is Ulfs and Billströms and Cos public humiliation. Which is a perfectly respectable kink to have so you do you Erdogan.
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Jan 22, 2023 18:15
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Threadkiller Dog posted:I dont think there is any political capital in Sweden to give Erdogan anything more than he may or may not have already gotten. Even if there was a legal avenue. Or even if there was a will... which i doubt. It would be electorally useless, almost no one on the street gives enough of a poo poo about about NATO or Turkey. i agree that it takes much more than the intransigence of a single government to make sweden violate their own rules this flagrantly - it would take direct and very heavy US pressure to get sweden to do what turkey wants them to do, and the americans are not inclined to make the effort to hasten sweden's NATO membership by however long this bad blood is going to stall it. however, that just means that sweden made a deal they couldn't fulfill - it doesn't make that much difference to the turks. at that point, if you accept less than you proclaimed to have got, you're sending out a signal that your view of what was agreed isn't *that* important. the turks don't seem inclined to send this signal. tbh the decision seems to have been made and i don't think that the political consensus is going to shift before sweden joins NATO, but it may not happen before 2028 or 2033 or something
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Jan 22, 2023 20:43
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Rust Martialis posted:You guys are *still* mad about the meatball ad? For most of my first years in Sweden, I thought "kåldolmar" was some sort of joke about immigration -- that there were so many immigrants from Turkey that someone invented Swedish dolmas. I finally had them, and it turned out they were just regular cabbage rolls.
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Jan 23, 2023 13:51
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There's now a push to defund Ungdomshuset following Ritt Bjerregaard's death, because nobody is apparently able to read and understand the phrase, "Slæb kadaveret forbi Ungeren", as anything but literally dragging her corpse there.  It's obviously phrased in the sense of "Move your carcass". VI FORSTÅR HINANDEN, IKKE?
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Jan 23, 2023 16:34
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SplitSoul posted:There's now a push to defund Ungdomshuset following Ritt Bjerregaard's death, because nobody is apparently able to read and understand the phrase, "Slæb kadaveret forbi Ungeren", as anything but literally dragging her corpse there. They aren't having a street party Thatcher style to celebrate? That's disappointing then. But yeah, it's not a new thing, it's just everyone who always wanted it defunded has an excuse right now
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Jan 23, 2023 17:41
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BonHair posted:They aren't having a street party Thatcher style to celebrate? That's disappointing then. They were celebrating, the event was called "Så er vi kvit, Ritt!", they just didn't propose an unauthorized lit de parade like some morons are claiming.
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Jan 23, 2023 18:08
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KD and M are gettin increasingly belligerent against each other about who's to blame for the energy subsidy shitshow, where Busch recently commenting roughly that any competent politician knew that what Kristersson promised was impossible. M and SD are getting increasingly belligerent against each other about the whole NATO/Turkey shitshow, with Billström angering BOTH the pro-free-speech old school right wing (for saying that some free speech is bad), AND the bomb-höger (who is desperate at seeing their wettest dream, a NATO Sweden, being bungled up, not bungled up by the right no less), AND the anti-muslims in SD. This is exactly what I meant that the current government is nothing like Alliansen was when it launched. And while some of the aims of this current batch of right wing are objectively more dangerous than those of Alliansen, I'm also kinda optimistic about them being able to accomplish less. These are the kind of cracks that started to show after like, 4-6 years of Alliansen rule, not 4 MONTHS.
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Jan 24, 2023 11:41
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https://www.nrk.no/urix/erdogan-sier-nei-til-sverige-1.16268346 obviously erdogan is prone to hyperbole and so one cannot assume that this is entirely conclusive, but this seems to me to indicate that there needs to be at least an exploration of a non-NATO security strategy for sweden. i would like to propose a nordic defence pact outside of NATO. it would offer a serious conventional deterrent while also reducing tensions in the region, and is not dependent on militaristic gangster regimes like turkey.
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Jan 24, 2023 11:42
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V. Illych L. posted:https://www.nrk.no/urix/erdogan-sier-nei-til-sverige-1.16268346 This has always seemed like the best solution to me, but I guess the problem has been to get Denmark and Norway to join when they already have defence agreements. Will be even less likely to happen if Finlans joins Nato on its own.
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Jan 24, 2023 11:56
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Cakebaker posted:This has always seemed like the best solution to me, but I guess the problem has been to get Denmark and Norway to join when they already have defence agreements. Will be even less likely to happen if Finlans joins Nato on its own. If the actual threats of a Russian incursion into Finland and Sweden was growing smaller by the month in 2022, the actual threat of a Russian invasion of Sweden that does not touch Norway or Finland is really slim.
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Jan 24, 2023 12:00
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tbh i don't see the danger of a russian invasion of any nordic country as particularly great anyway, but it seems clear that the ability of individual nordic countries to assert themselves is very limited, and a bloc organisation would help with that. a nordic defence pact as a matter of public discussion would have to be raised first in sweden, and then one could have a kind of summit of interested parties (let's face it, it would be only left-wing parties outside of sweden, at least to begin) and at least have it be a part of the conversation for the next time the yanks do something undeniably evil having a workable alternative on the table is very important for when the political winds turn. in the course of a decade or two i think it's feasible, but we really would have to start talking about it now.
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Jan 24, 2023 12:57
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