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I guess since it's classified we don't *actually* know that the secret "depleted Uranium enhanced Chobham armor" is actually using depleted uranium and not some other heavy metal, do we? (I guess if it were using Wisconsin cheese and not metal it would be noticeable in tank Mass....)
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Jan 26, 2023 18:04
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Dandywalken posted:There are, and his reply was needlessly dismissive. Polyphoric effects for DU munitions are a key element of DU penetrators, and all the Wikipedia armor penetration links in the world wont change that. There seems to be a misunderstanding going on, I wasn't dismissive because I don't believe in the existence of polyphoric effects, I was dismissive because DU doesn't really add anything except maybe slightly higher penetration rates -it doesn't matter that a tank blows up even harder after a DU hit, the tank and everyone inside would have been killed dead by TC-ammunition equally well. Setting corpses on fire and causing more explosions is only a bonus if you're a really spiteful piece of poo poo. Looking at the pros and cons of TC and DU, and then making the conscious choice to use TC, is, in my opinion, a sign of some serious ethical deficiency. Here's a Non-Wikipedia paper I've found, which looks at this thematic a little more closely. Hilariously, tungsten carbide is down to "can cause breathing problems", while the section describing the effects depleted uranium has on people and the environment goes on across several paragraphs and this text is not written by the Declared Enemy of DU -it's honest enough to say that a lot of potential problems caused by DU are still controversial, as not enough long-term studies have been made. But you can't read this and come away thinking DUs are a good idea to use.  Edit: Some things I've learned just by skimming the text to find something about the effects of military applications was the fact that TC-penetrators are actually fairly hard and expensive to make! Well, guess I was wrong there. If you have the Uranium, DU is apparently cheaper to make. Willo567 posted:Question - does the Abram and Leopard-2 use DU? Leo-2s (or at least some test models) can use it, but the one time the Bundeswehr tried testing them, it caused a huge stink and media scandal, as using DU for military applications is highly controversial in Germany: Using it is seen on the same level as committing war crimes. The public really does not like that stuff. Giving DU to Ukraine would cause huge diplomatic issues, and you don't really want big tank battles with DU inside a populated area. The US could go hog wild in Iraq because nobody cared, but if Ukrainians start developing health issues like blood cancer and start dropping dead before the war is even over, that cause more problems. Also, Ukraine is already at a 3:1 disadvantage in terms of population, spraying huge amounts of DU all over the place would be something Russia could suggest, since their population is safely away from the front lines.
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Jan 26, 2023 18:32
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Pablo Bluth posted:Looks like there's a timescale for C2s That's the time scale I've read about German and Polish deliveries as well. US are slower. According to the Guardian, in total roughly 300 Western tanks are expected to be delivered in the first tranche.
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Jan 26, 2023 18:34
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ZombieLenin posted:DU is evil stuff, because as you point out, DU burns. So it's got a serious advantage as a penetrating round over Tungsten in as much as a Tungsten round penetration has a chance to not kill everyone in the vehicle him by either causing a ammunition cook-off or just burning everyone inside the vehicle to death. I was under the impression that most shaped charge style munitions designed to penetrate tank armor basically do it through burning metal injection anyway. I think when it comes to tank munitions deployed against tanks there's not going to be a lot of moral considerations about if it kills the tank crew more efficiently, just application considerations like 'it's cheaper and it blows up ammo better' I thought that the whole thing where aerosolized uranium from munition fires might have been poisoning people and were being reported by antiwar activists to be causing terrible birth defects and stuff might have changed that.
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Jan 26, 2023 18:40
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DTurtle posted:That's the time scale I've read about German and Polish deliveries as well. US are slower. According to the Guardian, in total roughly 300 Western tanks are expected to be delivered in the first tranche. Okay so since someone totaled it up, here’s a q because I’m HOI4-poisoned. Is that a lot of tanks in this scenario? Tanks are harder to visualize, and I figure not every tank is doing some sort of hollywoodesque front line charge thing. But I really have no idea what this how this number compares to what Ukraine needs. And then next, is this that “floodgate opening” moment where now that a few tanks have been sent out, now it’s psychologically/politically easier to send out more? Thanks all.
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Jan 26, 2023 18:46
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Fairly interesting article. Belarusian journalist matched in tinder with ru soldiers stationed in Belarus and m8ned them for thoughts on how things are going https://news.zerkalo.io/life/31005.html
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Jan 26, 2023 18:50
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Canada is sending 4 Leopard 2A4s to Ukraine. We have 62 2A4s and 20 2A6s. However, only 20 tanks are operational. The rest are in various states of storage or maintenance. https://globalnews.ca/news/9438332/canada-leopard-tanks-ukraine/ quote:Canada will send Ukraine 4 Leopard battle tanks: defence minister
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Jan 26, 2023 19:07
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buglord posted:Okay so since someone totaled it up, here’s a q because I’m HOI4-poisoned. Is that a lot of tanks in this scenario? Tanks are harder to visualize, and I figure not every tank is doing some sort of hollywoodesque front line charge thing. But I really have no idea what this how this number compares to what Ukraine needs. It's a pretty big amount of tanks. Based on a quick google search and check, Germany and the UK both have around 200- 300 tanks in their inventories, which is also probably a factor on why the cant just dump a poo poo ton over to Ukraine. As for your next question see above. Theres going to be a hard limit of what countries can send because unlike the US and Russia countries generally dont have major stocks of tanks lying around. In theory they could spool up production but tanks are expensive and someones likely gonna have to foot the bill. They could get ex-soviet countries to send in their tanks with promises that they will get back filled for a discount, but yeah. If numbers help put it in perspective that shipment of 14 Challenger 2s going to Ukraine is roughly 6% of the known UK Challenger inventory. Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 19:20 on Jan 26, 2023 |
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Jan 26, 2023 19:15
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Telsa Cola posted:It's a pretty big amount of tanks. Based on a quick google search and check, Germany and the UK both have around 300 tanks in their inventories, which is also probably a factor on why the cant just dump a poo poo ton over to Ukraine. I think Ukraine started with maybe 900? But I don't see where the 300 number is coming from, unless most of is Polish PT-91s and a bunch more T-72s.
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Jan 26, 2023 19:20
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Paladinus posted:Azov have just gone through rebranding, as they are now officially the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade. That looks like a stylised Z to me.
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Jan 26, 2023 19:43
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Sounds like they might be getting an M1A2 variant. https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1618651014202273792
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Jan 26, 2023 19:47
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Judgy Fucker posted:Other than intel sharing between NATO members, is there a particular reason why Norway would have a good idea about Russian casualties? Judgy Fucker posted:So why Norway? I hadn't really figured the Norwegians to be an intelligence powerhouse, and besides being in NATO not really sure why they're invested in trying to ascertain casualty figures for the conflict. I guess they do share a small border with Russia in the Arctic. The article cited says the official didn't announce their sources, which is both well understood but also muddles the authority of such figures. Dante fucked around with this message at 20:20 on Jan 26, 2023 |
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Jan 26, 2023 20:18
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Dante posted:The only thing the norwegian military does is monitor Russia basically. Norway's role in the cold war was as an outlook/listening post into russia, and that's still its NATO role. If you take the intelligence degree through the military academy in Norway, it includes rigorous training of both russian language and culture (though I think they did alternated some years for arabic due to afghanistan). There's a tremendous amount of interception and reading of russian transcripts and whatever going on. Not to say that it's necessarily a good source, but it wouldn't be weird if the norwegian military had some knowledge of internal russian military assessment. This all makes perfect sense, thank you for the answer.
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Jan 26, 2023 20:24
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Sorry if this is a naive question, but if the Russians are planning a serious offensive for the spring, how are the Ukrainians set to handle it? Is there any indication that the cauldron of the last year has forced the Russians to sort out their various military shortcomings and that they can launch more effective operations going forward? Its been easy to dump on the various failures of the Russian side but I wouldn't want to get lulled into a sense of over confidence and the Russian military does have a history of dramatically turning things around in the face of major reversals.
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Jan 26, 2023 20:26
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Dante posted:The only thing the norwegian military does is monitor Russia basically. Norway's role in the cold war was as an outlook/listening post into russia, and that's still its NATO role. If you take the intelligence degree through the military academy in Norway, it includes rigorous training of both russian language and culture (though I think they did alternated some years for arabic due to afghanistan). There's a tremendous amount of interception and reading of russian transcripts and whatever going on. Not to say that it's necessarily a good source, but it wouldn't be weird if the norwegian military had some knowledge of internal russian military assessment. My impression listening to a bunch of podcasts and reading material from people who served in field grade and higher positions is that many NATO countries have different specialties. Canada is apparently very competent at large-scale logistics; Estonia has become the best at cyberwarfare; some countries' air forces are apparently quite good at certain types of intercept missions; and so forth. In that context what you post makes a lot of sense.
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Jan 26, 2023 20:33
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I saw a news report on Belgian tv today about a private arms dealer, who just sold his m113 to the UK (I think) to go to Ukraine. But he also still had the old leopard I’s from the Belgian army in stock that he claimed people want to get to Ukraine. Can an old tank like that still be very useful?
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Jan 26, 2023 20:34
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buglord posted:And then next, is this that “floodgate opening” moment where now that a few tanks have been sent out, now it’s psychologically/politically easier to send out more? I think that's looking at the issue backwards. Somewhere within NATO there are analysts trying to figure out how to manage the conflict. That includes managing escalation potential. So far western aid has blown through Russian red line after red line without much pushback, but it was done incrementally and slowly. If Ukraine had received a battalion of last March in addition to the artillery system, the war may have escalated beyond Ukraine's borders, or at least that's what they probably concluded as sufficiently likely. There have been eyebrows raised about the recovery vehicles Ukraine was promised months ago, because that suggested something was afoot. Dito for the mine clearing vehicles (mine plows and the angry flail variant). Unless Ukraine collapses I find it likely, if not inevitable, that tank deliveries (especially Abrams) increase in the future, but Ukraine won't suddenly receive a new Wunderwaffe in secret. And who knows what other red line will be blown through next, because Russian red lines have been very non-credible so far. (And I maintain that I find that approach, of constantly issuing non-credible red lines, extremely irresponsible for a nuclear power to be following)
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Jan 26, 2023 20:37
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khwarezm posted:Sorry if this is a naive question, but if the Russians are planning a serious offensive for the spring, how are the Ukrainians set to handle it? Analysts are all over the place, but a large offensive seems less likely given the huge expenditure of ammunition and men around Bakhmut for the tiny gains in ground. If they were building up large reserves of ammunition and well-maintained vehicles, it probably went into that fight. I bet we see a lot of localized offensives aimed at tying down the UA.
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Jan 26, 2023 20:43
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khwarezm posted:Sorry if this is a naive question, but if the Russians are planning a serious offensive for the spring, how are the Ukrainians set to handle it? Is there any indication that the cauldron of the last year has forced the Russians to sort out their various military shortcomings and that they can launch more effective operations going forward? Its been easy to dump on the various failures of the Russian side but I wouldn't want to get lulled into a sense of over confidence and the Russian military does have a history of dramatically turning things around in the face of major reversals. Russians are not telling what their plans are, nor are Ukrainians telling what their counter-plans are. Them sly bastards... Well, presumably it has something to do with military theory that officers study in academies and put into action ever so often in war games. One part of the answer is trying to maintain a good enough situational awareness that you can recognize what your enemy is doing. With modern technologies it's not really feasible to hide large attack columns, but it can be hard to tell what activity is immediate precursor of an assault and which is just some more aggressive reconnaissance etc. Part two is keeping strong enough combined arms reserves (including ammunition reserves for artillery) ready to blunt any attack spears, turn them back and then hopefully pursue them. In practise it's going to be a bloody affair and we can only hope for the best and wait until dust clears to see what happened.
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Jan 26, 2023 21:03
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Judgy Fucker posted:So why Norway? I hadn't really figured the Norwegians to be an intelligence powerhouse, and besides being in NATO not really sure why they're invested in trying to ascertain casualty figures for the conflict. I guess they do share a small border with Russia in the Arctic. The article cited says the official didn't announce their sources, which is both well understood but also muddles the authority of such figures. People have given answers already about this. But honestly it could also just be because some Norwegian intelligence or security person happened to make a statement to the press, and that's really it.
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Jan 26, 2023 21:09
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Kikas posted:That's a loving default Call of Duty game tag wtf And their promo materials from link look like "Call of Duty: Siege of Mariupol" intro. Welp, it's still an improvement compared to literally Nazi symbols.
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Jan 26, 2023 21:17
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that looks like what they use instead of a swastika when the localize video games to Germany and France
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Jan 26, 2023 21:29
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Pablo Bluth posted:Sounds like they might be getting an M1A2 variant.
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Jan 26, 2023 21:45
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ukraine is getting m1s via contracting/production and not from old stocks
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Jan 26, 2023 21:48
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They've been pretty clear that they're going to be new built tanks. I'm going to make the bold prediction they're be known as M1A2-U variant, with some unique combo of capabilities (just as Saudi get M1A2S and Kuwait get M12A-K, and M12A-T was pitched to Taiwan ).
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Jan 26, 2023 21:52
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Charliegrs posted:If I remember correctly, when the US Marines had tanks they were the older M1A2 variety (while the army had newer SEP3 varients). But the Marines ditched all their tanks, so maybe those are the ones going to Ukraine? Probably after the super secret DU armor gets removed.
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Jan 26, 2023 21:57
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Herstory Begins Now posted:ukraine is getting m1s via contracting/production and not from old stocks Those might not be mutually exclusive if considerable conversion effort is required that's still cheaper than making new.
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Jan 26, 2023 22:06
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Dandywalken posted:Abrams can. Export variants do not, and there are non-DU ammo options. Leopard 2 doesn't use it. So the M1A2 Abram Ukraine is getting likely won't have DU ammo since it's an export?
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Jan 26, 2023 22:26
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Willo567 posted:So the M1A2 Abram Ukraine is getting likely won't have DU ammo since it's an export? Based on past exports, it's very unlikely to.
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Jan 26, 2023 22:30
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I have a hunch Ukraine might insist on skipping the DU ammo and the resultant birth defects.
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Jan 26, 2023 22:34
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You guys having a slapfight over DU vs TC do realize that the 125mm 2A46 guns that have been seeing plenty of use on both sides use rounds which can be of either material, and are probably using anything they get their hands on, right?
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Jan 26, 2023 23:42
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Xerxes17 posted:You guys having a slapfight over DU vs TC do realize that the 125mm 2A46 guns that have been seeing plenty of use on both sides use rounds which can be of either material, and are probably using anything they get their hands on, right? Yep, very aware. I'm not sure Ukraine has any DU rounds given they were developed after the Soviet Union broke up, but Russia absolutely has them.
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Jan 26, 2023 23:56
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There's barely any tank on tank action in this war. Most sides just lob HE Frag at each others direction. Even the meme ATGM stuff like Svir/Refleks is rarely used
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Jan 27, 2023 00:13
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khwarezm posted:Is there any indication that the cauldron of the last year has forced the Russians to sort out their various military shortcomings and that they can launch more effective operations going forward? Short answer: no Long answer: lol nope
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Jan 27, 2023 00:19
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I did see a tweet earlier that reference some Ukrainian military person saying the Russians were learning from some of their mistakes, and there were less weapon stockpiles to HIMARS. Longer range weapons please.
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Jan 27, 2023 00:24
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A short Dutch video (with Dutch subtitles only unfortunately) about a Leopard 2 training simulator center. https://nos.nl/l/2461353 The main point he makes is that if the trainee is already familiar with tanks they can be trained on the leo 2 in a matter of weeks.
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Jan 27, 2023 00:24
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Charlotte Hornets posted:There's barely any tank on tank action in this war. Most sides just lob HE Frag at each others direction. Even the meme ATGM stuff like Svir/Refleks is rarely used Let me show you a real meme. Or let the Right Honourable Master Sladkov show you one. https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/7080 deepl.com machine translation posted:MY FRIEND, A GRADUATE OF THE GENERAL STAFF ACADEMY, WHO HAS SERVED AND FOUGHT FROM AFGHANISTAN TO THE ARCTIC, ABOUT
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Jan 27, 2023 00:30
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Ynglaur posted:Yep, very aware. I'm not sure Ukraine has any DU rounds given they were developed after the Soviet Union broke up, but Russia absolutely has them. The Soviets did develop a couple DU APFSDS rounds in the 80s (3BM29, 3BM32) but IIRC they weren't nearly as common as tungsten rounds. Either way as to what 125mm rounds are being used at this point, who knows. A war like this is going to burn through the best stuff pretty fast. There were already reports of Russia fielding 3BM42 like mid last year, and that was a round from the mid 80s (that they had absolute piles of to be fair).
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Jan 27, 2023 00:46
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Herstory Begins Now posted:ukraine is getting m1s via contracting/production and not from old stocks Bear in mind that this is likely a bureaucratic reality more than a physical reality. 'New production' could include rebuilt or updated tanks
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Jan 27, 2023 01:16
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January 24-27 round-up Deep dives: FT has an article going in detail over backroom negotiations between Scholz and Biden on tanks for Ukraine. https://www.ft.com/content/ea1cd074-c912-4dd7-9977-72ac41da0a52 A long story about 8 Russian refuseniks fleeing home from the frontlines. https://zona.media/article/2023/01/25/eight Vazhnye Istorii has an investigation into Rostekh's sanctions-busting scheme to buy components for military EW gear. https://storage.googleapis.com/isto...paet/index.html Regular news: US (31 M1A2 Abrams) and Germany (14 Leopard 2A6) are giving their tanks to Ukraine. The German announcement mentions a European tank supplier coalition to give Ukraine 2 battalions total, though it's not clear which flavour of battalions is implied. https://www.ft.com/content/d79c4da1-2c17-401d-9ef7-00051fe02f2a A figure of 80–100 Leopards seems to be circulating a bit more prominently than others. https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deut...ee-e8598f821bfa https://abcnews.go.com/International/ukraine-expects-100-leopard-2-tanks-12-countries/story?id=96620510 Some currently anticipated contributions: - 4-8 tanks from Norway https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-germany-approves-sending-of-leopard-2-tanks/a-64506202 - 4 tanks from Portugal https://finance.yahoo.com/news/media-portugal-preparing-hand-over-121534125.html - X tanks from Spain https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spain-says-it-is-open-sending-leopard-tanks-ukraine-2023-01-25/ German Leopards will be arriving in 3ish months. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2023/01/25/7154837/ Abrams are arriving god knows when because the sole tank plant is backlogged. “Multiple options” available, though. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/26/us-sends-ukraine-advanced-abrams-tanks-00079648 Pentagon says that U.S.-based 155 mm shell production scaling target is 90k/month within two years. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/us/politics/pentagon-ukraine-ammunition.html Switzerland is gearing to drop its veto on Swiss-licenced arms exports to Ukraine. https://www.nzz.ch/schweiz/wende-bei-waffen-exporten-schweiz-ld.1722731 According to Politico sources, conversations about military jets for Ukraine are starting. Americans seem to be opposed to the idea, so it's probably not going to happen for a while at least, under the assumption that the sources are not making poo poo up etcetera. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy-russia-war-after-tanks-the-west-mulls-discussion-on-fighter-jets/ To help everyone with “no tanks” withdrawals, Scholz is already on record with “no planes”. https://www.dw.com/uk/solc-kategoricno-viklucae-postavki-nimeccinou-bojovih-litakiv-ukraini/a-64512263 Another mass airstrike, notably from the Black Sea for once. UAF has been previously saying that they're expecting it when weather improves. https://t.me/CinCAFU/363 UAF confirms that Russia controls Soledar. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/25/world/europe/ukraine-soledar-retreat.html They also indirectly confirm that they're using mobilized personnel for crewing the new equipment. https://censor.net/ru/news/3395603/povestki_mogut_vruchat_gde_ugodno_sdelat_eto_imeet_pravo_daje_nachalnik_jeka_suhoputnye_voyiska Zelenskyy has signed a law increasing punishments for deserting, refusing orders, other non-fighting discipline army crimes. https://itd.rada.gov.ua/billinfo/Bills/Card/40997 US/NATO push for Ukraine to lay off Bakhmut continues. According to this article, US government thinks Putin might order mobilizing another 200k soldiers. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/24/politics/ukraine-shift-tactics-bakhmut/index.html NYT did analyse some video and satellite footage of Russian graveyards. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/world/europe/wagner-group-cemetery-russia-ukraine.html Ukrainian journalists are reporting that Russians are storming Vuhledar now. https://www.facebook.com/butusov.yuriy/posts/pfbid0hdBwYvzgxggy5ptC3RLt1aC91nUaneXNM96Ubok3U8F57akQGAE6bSraFgbw39SZl U.S. Congressional committees are piling onto the New Start treaty. https://www.ft.com/content/2276e70d-e445-48a4-b0a6-eee521604977 Poland says that the harshest EU sanctions package against Russia has yet to come. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/rus/news/2023/01/25/7154836/ A German judge has ordered arrest of a suspected Russian spy. https://zona.media/news/2023/01/26/Germany Russia has banned Meduza. https://www.ft.com/content/bae1d751-f032-4662-a346-873c91740472 A Russian court has formally shut Moscow Helsinki Group down. https://zona.media/news/2023/01/25/mhg Russian activists estimated that, by December, Wagner had recruited 42k people from prisons. https://meduza.io/news/2023/01/23/r...o-dezertirovali Russian government has also ordered 24 penal colonies open in the occupied territories of Ukraine. http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202301240007?index=2&rangeSize=1 Their UN representative is saying that "some red lines have been crossed, but, maybe, the most red of them have not yet been crossed". https://ria.ru/20230124/zapad-1846984037.html Volodin has ordered an expansion of anti-army speech censorship laws to also cover volunteers and Wagner. https://zona.media/news/2023/01/25/volodin Meanwhile, literally everyone is using “take a free shot at Volodin” card it seems because apparently he did attempt to push forward with his proposal to confiscate property of Russians living abroad. https://verstka.media/otobrat-imuschestvo-ne-dayut/ Graft scandal continues in Ukraine, with one of the more important developments of the last two days being an army food procurement network reform (looks like there was a cartel fleecing it). Again, not linking everything. https://www.facebook.com/reznikovoleksii/posts/pfbid031mY3v9SdcwSxi1H3pmZcjUs9UNMmSVhvaGPbNmXoQGULbFcoPuvv8Jzxh39Xe3Lsl https://twitter.com/RikardJozwiak/status/1618172451732738049  (Watched only first third or so, just in case) Seems like we have the first video of BMPT in combat. https://t.me/milinfolive/95971Other summaries: https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-24-25 https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-jan-23-24 (they think Morocco tanks story is bollocks, and explain why they do so) https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-24-25 https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-23-24 https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jan-21-23 https://zona.media/chronicle/337 https://zona.media/chronicle/336 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-25-2023 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-24-2023 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 14:58 on Jan 27, 2023 |
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