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Tai posted:It's loving stupid. Bahkmut is not even a strategic place. It's just now symbolic in the war for russia. If/once it's captured, it will be paraded on russian TV as some sort of Stalingrad. Bald short wanker.
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Jan 28, 2023 02:25
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Deki posted:They've thrown insane amounts of men away to take it and it's been "on the verge of falling" for at least 5 months now. one more such
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Jan 28, 2023 02:25
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free hubcaps posted:one more such i think about 5-20 such bloodbaths before a serious guarantee of a coup attempt. but it's not just 1. aren't nation-states fuckin nuts
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Jan 28, 2023 02:27
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Sashimi posted:I just can't help but wonder if the ongoing offensive in and around Bakhmut and the new one in Zaporizhzhia could be a last gasp for the Russians in terms of major offensives. They've lost somewhere around half of their armour and artillery, their best troops are all dead or exhausted and at best being replaced by pressganged dudes straight out of basic. The troops being trained by air-soft club volunteers have not yet entered service so I think we should reserve our predictions.
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Jan 28, 2023 02:30
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Sashimi posted:I just can't help but wonder if the ongoing offensive in and around Bakhmut and the new one in Zaporizhzhia could be a last gasp for the Russians in terms of major offensives. They've lost somewhere around half of their armour and artillery, their best troops are all dead or exhausted and at best being replaced by pressganged dudes straight out of basic. I don’t think they’re getting basic.
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Jan 28, 2023 02:35
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later rounds of mobiks have been getting as much as 3 months of training.
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Jan 28, 2023 02:46
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Herstory Begins Now posted:later rounds of mobiks have been getting as much as 3 months of training. They've claimed that, but a lot of them still report getting training and then being pushed into positions untenable. The average experience doesn't seem to be increasing. And who knows if that training actually means useful training. They have photos and video of their 'training' sites and its not pretty and highlights a failed training pipeline.
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Jan 28, 2023 02:55
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Tai posted:https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1619038695927214081 I like the "My grandfather helped protect us from NATO. My dad worked for McDonald's" How'd that "protection from NATO" work out then?
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Jan 28, 2023 03:05
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Herstory Begins Now posted:later rounds of mobiks have been getting as much as 3 months of training. My father was a conscript in the Bundeswehr during the late '70s. Protesting nuclear power plants, warmongering, and remaining Nazis in the state apparatus one week, getting yelled at by a barely intelligible Bavarian drill instructor the next. While taking the whole deal in stride, as something that must be done, what made him take training seriously was a short speech by the DI. Paraphrasing: "Y'all probably haven't realized this yet, but if poo poo pops off, it ain't gonna be pretty. In exchange for your time, we will endeavor to provide you with the best training Germany can possibly give you!" Later, at his home unit, a slightly drunken conversation with the ranking company NCO revealed a sobering truth. "*Hics* Look, Panzerpionier H. How long do you think this unit will last in war? Think about what we do as armored engineers. Not even a month before all the vehicles are gone and you're infantry, if you're lucky. We'll have to keep fighting Ivan though." What do the poor, dumb RuF guys get? The reverse? "Ah good, you survived the first month. Now, we train you... What's that? No, no, no, you'll probably still die. Good question though. Enjoy being squad leader!"
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Jan 28, 2023 03:08
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Deki posted:If Bakhmut is a victory, how many victories can Russia afford? They've got at least one more victory like Soledar in them. rooting for them
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Jan 28, 2023 03:11
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CommieGIR posted:They've claimed that, but a lot of them still report getting training and then being pushed into positions untenable. you're missing the point. yes the first batch of mobiks was sent basically straight to the front with a couple weeks or less of training. A further batch got around a month of training. now that the manpower situation is less critical for Russia, they're taking longer to train each batch of mobiks. recent batches are getting non-trivial amounts of training and are getting put into old, but still working, vehicles and are absolutely going to be a pain in the rear end for Ukraine to deal with. don't take my word for it, here's Michael Kofman talking about it https://warontherocks.com/2023/01/manpower-materiel-and-the-coming-decisive-phase-in-ukraine/ Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 03:18 on Jan 28, 2023 |
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Jan 28, 2023 03:16
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Sashimi posted:I just can't help but wonder if the ongoing offensive in and around Bakhmut and the new one in Zaporizhzhia could be a last gasp for the Russians in terms of major offensives. They've lost somewhere around half of their armour and artillery, their best troops are all dead or exhausted and at best being replaced by pressganged dudes straight out of basic. https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1619160066103427072?t=cXnGtmRy5nNc-FyJ7aIC0Q&s=19 We'll see what happens.
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Jan 28, 2023 03:36
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Spring fertilizer, I guess.
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Jan 28, 2023 03:37
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Herstory Begins Now posted:you're missing the point. yes the first batch of mobiks was sent basically straight to the front with a couple weeks or less of training. A further batch got around a month of training. now that the manpower situation is less critical for Russia, they're taking longer to train each batch of mobiks. recent batches are getting non-trivial amounts of training and are getting put into old, but still working, vehicles and are absolutely going to be a pain in the rear end for Ukraine to deal with. Again, I don't think this will change much? Russia has learned nothing from its failures, its logistics remain a wreck, its conducting human wave attacks that are draining them of even the most experienced soldiers. These guys are not suddenly going to become a well trained and well disciplined group because they still have a corrupt Command structure, no Non-Comissioned structure, and old equipment that is not up to par for the sort of operations they want to conduct. They may be able to conduct an offensive come spring, maybe even make some gains but there's absolutely nothing indicating they've actually taken any lessons learned into this. You have to be willing to admit failures if you want to learn. Show me where Russia has done so. Longer training at what? Unit tactics? Building competency? CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 03:43 on Jan 28, 2023 |
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Jan 28, 2023 03:41
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Tai posted:It's loving stupid. Bahkmut is not even a strategic place. It's just now symbolic in the war for russia. If/once it's captured, it will be paraded on russian TV as some sort of Stalingrad. Bald short wanker. In Soviet Russia strategic equals railway. So unless Ukraine removes rails between Bakhmut and Siversk, those are seen as strategic in Russia.
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Jan 28, 2023 03:44
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How does the twardy compare to the Russian upgraded t72s?
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Jan 28, 2023 03:45
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Pine Cone Jones posted:https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1619160066103427072?t=cXnGtmRy5nNc-FyJ7aIC0Q&s=19 if they told bloomberg, the cia prolly knows the contents of their fuckin buttholes, dont they
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Jan 28, 2023 04:06
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https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1619152621092360197 Melt down. A loving melt down. Solo goes mental. Absolutely mental
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Jan 28, 2023 04:09
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CommieGIR posted:Again, I don't think this will change much? Russia has learned nothing from its failures, its logistics remain a wreck, its conducting human wave attacks that are draining them of even the most experienced soldiers. Things don't have to be silver bullets that will instantly win the war to be impactful. russia's mobilization has already been impactful and it's been costly to deal with the endless small infantry attacks that it has led to. generating large mechanized units with mediocre training are impactful (which is why we're helping Ukraine generate mechanized brigades as one of the core pieces of assistance, albeit hopefully with better training). like I don't have any particular optimism for the Russian position or any of their likely outcomes, to put it lightly, but they remain a real bitch of an issue for Ukraine to solve before they get their country back. As an aside, there's a ton of 'admitting failures' happening in russian discourse right now, poo poo is absolutely everywhere and not even all of it is in the form of finger pointing. I doubt it leads to much because the leadership is incredibly resistant to change, but in terms of how the war is fought at a lower level, poo poo is evolving rapidly and people are adapting just because they don't want to die. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 04:17 on Jan 28, 2023 |
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Jan 28, 2023 04:12
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Holy poo poo he is going mental. Only half way in.
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Jan 28, 2023 04:12
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Question is whether theyll arrive in time. Dennis posted a video saying the MSR to Bahmut has been cut.
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Jan 28, 2023 04:13
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bob dobbs is dead posted:if they told bloomberg, the cia prolly knows the contents of their fuckin buttholes, dont they It's either the mother of all HumInt coups or, more likely to me because lol US HumInt, the NSA is reading all their email.
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Jan 28, 2023 04:13
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Things don't have to be silver bullets that will instantly win the war to be impactful. russia's mobilization has already been impactful and it's been costly to deal with the endless small infantry attacks that it has led to. generating large mechanized units with mediocre training are impactful (which is why we're helping Ukraine generate mechanized brigades as one of the core pieces of assistance, albeit hopefully with better training). Impactful to Russia, and not in a good way. Not impactful to any sort of actual gains in Ukraine. They are not generating large mechanized units, I don't believe that at all. The current bunch of mechanics units they have are a joke, there's no way they are training better ones. Just to be clear: Not calling you out, just saying I don't think 3 months of training is turning anything around for Russian soldiers or their capabilities.
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Jan 28, 2023 04:14
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CommieGIR posted:Just to be clear: Not calling you out, just saying I don't think 3 months of training is turning anything around for Russian soldiers or their capabilities.
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Jan 28, 2023 04:22
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the popes toes posted:I think you are half-right. It's a stretch to think their offensive capability will improve dramatically. But even a little training improves defensive capabilities and the Ukrainian offensive will be made that more difficult. Especially if they are really getting 12 weeks basic, which is pretty close to the WW2 standard for infantry (I think). The problem being there's absolutely no reason to believe they suddenly found component people to LEAD that training. These are the same people that trained the guys getting beat in regular units right now.
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Jan 28, 2023 04:25
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CommieGIR posted:Impactful to Russia, and not in a good way. Not impactful to any sort of actual gains in Ukraine. What do you think russia did with the last 50-100k mobiks and the trainloads of old tanks and IFVs coming out of storage? whether or not it turns things around is an entirely different question from are they doing it. They're absolutely doing it. 3 months of training isn't ideal, but it's a non-trivial amount, too. Personally i think Rob Lee is correct that one of the more significant differences in the short-mid term future is the mismatch in quality of mechanized units that Ukraine is putting together out of predominately donated western, modern IFVs and AFVs and the ones russia is putting together out of largely de-mothballed early BMPs. eg https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1618338685174550528?s=20 Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 04:30 on Jan 28, 2023 |
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Jan 28, 2023 04:27
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Herstory Begins Now posted:what do you think russia did with the last 50-100k mobiks and the trainloads of old tanks and IFVs coming out of storage? whether or not it turns things around is an entirely different question from are they doing it. they're absolutely doing it. 3 months of training isn't ideal, but it's a non-trivial amount, too. That's assuming they work and don't need major overhauls, which Russia is distinctly struggling with logistics for replacements and parts. Again, 3 months of what sort of quality training? If it encompasses none of the lessons learned in the utter failure that has been going on, it might as well be a 3 month camp out.
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Jan 28, 2023 04:30
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But what if they get better criminals? Maybe they've saved all the really good criminals for last. All those crazy tattooed guys with Jesus, Mary and Stalin on their backs. Those guys?
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Jan 28, 2023 04:36
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CommieGIR posted:That's assuming they work and don't need major overhauls, which Russia is distinctly struggling with logistics for replacements and parts. take it as seriously as you want to or not I really don't care, but both American leadership and Ukrainian leadership seem to perceive it as a genuine threat that needs to be managed and dealt with carefully. that said, I think the general assesment of its likely impact was a lot higher before the recent light and heavy vehicle commitments to Ukraine the popes toes posted:But what if they get better criminals? Maybe they've saved all the really good criminals for last. All those crazy tattooed guys with Jesus, Mary and Stalin on their backs. Those guys? lol you joke but that's kind of the core of the problem: russia is holding nothing back. they really are just throwing whatever they have at Ukraine and hoping it has the needed impact and while it looks stupid from thousands of miles away, for Ukrainians it's a helluva lot to have thrown at you relentlessly Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 04:39 on Jan 28, 2023 |
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Jan 28, 2023 04:36
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Herstory Begins Now posted:later rounds of mobiks have been getting as much as 3 months of training. Yeah I think by end of WW2 that had dwindled down to just two weeks for losing side.
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Jan 28, 2023 04:37
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Tai posted:https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1619152621092360197 Lol, someone's bucking for a trip out a window. I hope his studio's on the ground floor...
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Jan 28, 2023 04:37
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Tai posted:jfc 24.4k dead/wounded russians in 7 days. Even if that is exaggerated and it is half that, that is still sickening. Where did that number come from? Not even Ukraine are claiming anywhere near that, the average losses estimated by Ukraine have been about 750 a day?
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Jan 28, 2023 04:50
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Turkey chat reminds me of an obscure but interesting historical moment: possibly the first ever use of a bot for political purposes on the internet. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serdar_Argic Someone set up a program to post a screed denying the Armenian genocide whenever the word "Turkey" was used on usenet. Its so simple it seems quaint today.
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Jan 28, 2023 05:08
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Deki posted:They've thrown insane amounts of men away to take it and it's been "on the verge of falling" for at least 5 months now. If they suffer the same amount of losses for one more year, they'll basically have nothing left. After 7,000 tanks and 12,000 APCs are lost, you don't really have any armored support left for your hapless mobiks, and if the artillery losses reach 4,000-4,500 or worse, their one fig leaf is also gone.
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Jan 28, 2023 06:11
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IMO 3 months of mobik training shouldn't be underestimated. As other GiP goons could tell you much better than I, a lot of boot camp is the mental conditioning to take a civilian and turn them into a soldier. Specifically the discpline to work/fight in a group, to receive/execute orders, to communicate using a standardized vocabulary, plus a lot of basic field hygiene poo poo. They could be training with broomsticks and they'd still be a more effective force than the mobiks who were in a trench within 72 hours of being dragged on a bus. There is also a Darwinian aspect to the training - at the start of the war there were all the unscreened/unescorted tanks, mobiks hanging out by the campfire in a ditch, Russian infantry hiding in loving leaves in BMPS,  that one ka-52 from the start of the invasion that was just hovering there and got drained with the most epic Stugna shot of all time - all of that battlefield evolutionary knowledge will get transferred to these new mobiks without busloads of deaths. I'm not saying that Russia is going to get their poo poo together, ( those hand-loaded ammo depots will be exploding up to the last minutes of the war), but Russia doesnt have to improve very much to make Ukraine really suffer. Russia is expecting to mobilize half a million soldiers. They could be carrying T-34 palanquins into battle with breech loaded cannons and it would still be a nightmare for the Ukrainians to manage. And it seems likely that Russia will be able to maintain this sort of pressure for years - Russia may not be able to replace its most recent smart weapons and fighter planes, but it can certainly design and manufacture  Modern WW2-esque weapons and ammunition indefinitely. Not to prognosticate too much, but it seems that Ukraine is getting the right equipment+tactics to shoot down all of the terror drone strikes, so its possible that Russia will start using them on the battlefield instead. A shahed-131 would almost certainly destroy an Abrams with a direct hit, and I'm not really sure what they could do (except maybe shoot it down with the 7.62mm pintle turret?) Of course the K2 has point defense...  Ukraine is going to have real challenges until they get planes/establish air superiority. Russia's plan to seemingly flood the field with endless poo poo troops and equipment will probably be effective, and will slowly gain in effectiveness as the lovely mobiks start to overwhelm the veteran Ukrainian troops.
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Jan 28, 2023 06:12
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https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/north-korea-slams-us-decision-send-tanks-ukraine-96719472 Maybe that's exactly what the play is here dumbasses? This mafia gas station will no longer be a threat to anyone in the world.
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Jan 28, 2023 06:25
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Has anyone suggested to Putin to just like rub one out and maybe touch grass? Asking for a friend.
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Jan 28, 2023 06:28
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To be fair... posted:Has anyone suggested to Putin to just like rub one out and maybe touch grass? Asking for a friend. Yes.... https://i.imgur.com/2bBK4R1.mp4
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Jan 28, 2023 06:32
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Pine Cone Jones posted:https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1619160066103427072?t=cXnGtmRy5nNc-FyJ7aIC0Q&s=19 theres gonna be a huge offensive on the 1 year anniversary guaranteed
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Jan 28, 2023 06:34
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Vampire Panties posted:IMO 3 months of mobik training shouldn't be underestimated. As other GiP goons could tell you much better than I, a lot of boot camp is the mental conditioning to take a civilian and turn them into a soldier. Specifically the discpline to work/fight in a group, to receive/execute orders, to communicate using a standardized vocabulary, plus a lot of basic field hygiene poo poo. They could be training with broomsticks and they'd still be a more effective force than the mobiks who were in a trench within 72 hours of being dragged on a bus. There is also a Darwinian aspect to the training - at the start of the war there were all the unscreened/unescorted tanks, mobiks hanging out by the campfire in a ditch, Russian infantry hiding in loving leaves in BMPS, Well, planes certainly don't seem off the table from the talk recently from all sides, except for Germany, and I don't doubt that Ukraine will receive both those and trained pilots in enough numbers for them. And as for Shaheds being used on the battlefield, I'll believe it when I see it.
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Jan 28, 2023 06:42
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