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fawning deference posted:This is all totally fair and I stand corrected The Oilers were dogshit for the better part of 3 decades, its hard to break that narrative! But they were a very good team last year and are the same again this year (and the two regular seasons before that they were mostly fine, they just got outgoalered in the playoffs those seasons).
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Jan 30, 2023 18:08
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In no way were the Oilers "very good" this year or last year, they were completely average. However, this is hockey a sport where success is largely a product of luck more than anything else and there's no reason why the Oilers won't win the cup this year as a result of that.
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Jan 30, 2023 18:26
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It's the Kraken's year. We've waited our whole franchise's life to make the playoffs, and we're gonna win it right away.
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Jan 30, 2023 18:34
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“Hey the team is actually only middling defensively and people just think they’re terrible because of their reputation, meanwhile the xG is great and the top line is shooting the lights out” is so point-for-point identical to the Leafs talking points last year that it makes my head hurt a little, all the way down to quietly hoping the question marks in net don’t matter. The Oilers can absolutely make it out of the west because of the competition not being very strong, but I don’t think that’s really what people mean when they say they don’t consider them a “threat”
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Jan 30, 2023 18:37
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The Oilers have had arguably the two greatest offensive threats in the past thirty years in their primes on the same team for the better part of a decade and the best you can say about them is "maybe if they get lucky they'll fluke into a few easy match ups and win a cup against an injured opponent." Every other NHL franchise that has had a player that can realistically be called a generational talent has managed to at least be a regular contender aside from Edmonton with McDavid and Draisaitl. The Oilers aren't categorically awful anymore, but that's still one of the greatest failings in sports history. Right up there with Ohtani and Trout wasting their lives on the Angels. Even then a guy can out bat one time in nine in baseball. The Oilers run their horses into the ground and this is still the best they can manage.
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Jan 30, 2023 18:42
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Since Woodcroft was hired the Oilers absolutely have been "very good". All situations, they're 5th in GF%, 7th in in xGF% with the top offence in the league and a middle of the pack defensive team. 5x5 they're 8th in GF%, 11th in xGF%. They're absolutely a flawed team (every team pretty much is), but to say they're a league average and lucky as a team really is missing what they currently are.
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Jan 30, 2023 18:44
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Pungry posted:It's the Kraken's year. We've waited our whole franchise's life to make the playoffs, and we're gonna win it right away. After twenty two months... YANNI GOURDE!
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Jan 30, 2023 18:45
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Oilers should be banned from a #1 pick for 20 years because of how badly they've squandered McDavid. Tack on another 10 for Draisaitl.
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Jan 30, 2023 18:47
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Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:Since Woodcroft was hired the Oilers absolutely have been "very good". All situations, they're 5th in GF%, 7th in in xGF% with the top offence in the league and a middle of the pack defensive team. 5x5 they're 8th in GF%, 11th in xGF%. They're absolutely a flawed team (every team pretty much is), but to say they're a league average and lucky as a team really is missing what they currently are. A team ranging between 5-11th overall in some cherry picked stats is the definition of average. Even if they manage to scrape out a cup there's no way to describe the McDavid Oilers era as anything other than a significant disappointment.
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Jan 30, 2023 18:47
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The west seems kinda lovely so maybe this is the year the Oilers make a run to the SCF and then lose in 5 games to the Bruins or Hurricanes
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Jan 30, 2023 18:55
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ThinkTank posted:A team ranging between 5-11th overall in some cherry picked stats is the definition of average. Even if they manage to scrape out a cup there's no way to describe the McDavid Oilers era as anything other than a significant disappointment. I'm not trying to cherry pick stats, I think the best way to see if a team is good or not is how many goals they score in all situations vs how many they don't. A lot of people like xG models as well as 5x5 stats so I included them, but I actually think that limiting to 5x5 really misses teams with strengths and weaknesses at other game states which take up more of the game now, or at least have a higher impact on it. The Oilers outscore teams because of the best offence in the league and a middle of the pack defence since Woodcroft made a bunch of deployment changes when him and Manson were hired. I don't think I've said otherwise anywhere. You can quibble if that makes them very good, or good, or average. I'd define average as ~15th. Good as top ~10, very good as top ~5. Fit the Oilers in there wherever you like. I also don't disagree that the Oilers have disappointed. I haven't said otherwise here at all and really until Woodcroft was hired the team has disappointed every season outside of maybe 16-17. But that's not what I've written here or anything I've said.
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Jan 30, 2023 18:56
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Oilers will be out in 4, 1st round.
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Jan 30, 2023 19:00
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I didn't know anything about Bobby Hull other than stats until today. He went full dril https://twitter.com/dril/status/831805955402776576?s=20&t=30a2z2lic1basOPzZGYFMw
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Jan 30, 2023 19:03
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Every single one of their possession stats is like 15th or 16th in league and their PDO is basically bang on 100. I realize people have somewhat moved past that, but in raw "shooting the puck at the net v. Stopping the other team doing the same" they are a fringe playoff team. I'm sure that's ticked up slightly in the past couple weeks but that's hardly impressive. Plus their PP is a full 6 percentage points higher than anyone else. Their offence is largely dictated by their powerplay at the moment, and it's not exactly some grand secret that those opportunities disappear come the stretch drive/playoffs. Plus this is all driven by FOUR OF THEIR GUYS BEING ON HUNDRED POINT PACES. They need just about the max any team has ever gotten get out of their top six to be in the playoff race. I am not discounting the Oilers, but they're what they've been every year since roughly 2017: a handful of terrific offensive forwards dragged way down by an abject lack of depth or team defence. They've had goaltending in stretches this year which is a key difference, but I see little to no change in the team over the past few years even with Woodcroft. Unsurprisingly when they were running with Campbell earlier in the year they were spectacularly unremarkable. Not all that long ago they were barely treading water. If the definition of 'very good' is a team that has dragged itself to 4th in their division after a 7-1 stretch then I think we're talking about fundamentally different concepts.
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Jan 30, 2023 19:09
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Edmonton has the exactly same 5v5 actual outcomes as Calgary. 2.7 goals for per 60 and 2.5 goals against per 60. Both teams are 52% goals for 5v5. New Jersey, Boston, Carolina and Seattle all have 60% goals for split 5v5. Seattle leads the league in goals for per 60 at 5v5. Edm's goals for/60 at 5v5 is good for 9th in the league. Edmonton's actual prevention is good for 18th right next to Pittsburgh....a team that was missing 3 of their top 6 defensemen and were icing a first pairing of Ty Smith and Jan Rutta. Where Edmonton excels during the regular season is their 32% best in the league powerplay. I personally think the only team that had a dynamite powerplay and went on to win the cup was Washington. But I'd have to go back and check. They also had very good 5v5 outcomes because, it turns out, winning the Stanley Cup requires you to be very good at the part of the game that the game is mostly played at..which is 5v5. Tbh having a great PK is likely more important than the powerplay conversions. Though I would have to actually go back and look to if that's actually true. Was just a thought.
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Jan 30, 2023 19:18
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Edmonton can't keep up when it becomes even more legal to spear fish McDavid.
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Jan 30, 2023 19:19
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Yeah I suppose what I meant was that the Oilers having McDavid and possibly 4 100-pt scorers this year and not being anywhere near the best record in the league is kind of insane. Like they should have Carolina's record but instead they merely have a pretty decent record.
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Jan 30, 2023 19:21
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oilers suck rocks let's move on
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Jan 30, 2023 19:40
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mennoknight posted:oilers suck rocks let's move on Agreed. So do the Flames. Canucks got em both beat in that regard though.
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Jan 30, 2023 19:51
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The fraudulence of Canada knows no bounds.
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Jan 30, 2023 19:56
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Alex Kerfoot will score a Cup-winning goal. I will not be taking any further questions.
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Jan 30, 2023 20:10
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Didn't say which team!
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Jan 30, 2023 20:15
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Or which Cup
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Jan 30, 2023 20:47
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https://twitter.com/PR_NHL/status/1620146457335693312 Booo
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Jan 30, 2023 22:32
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Why are we booing? Stephenson is great!
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Jan 30, 2023 22:37
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Well if it isn't gonna be another Kraken it should be Tyler Myers then clearly
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Jan 30, 2023 22:47
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I don't think you can simultaneously say the West is soft and that the Oilers aren't "a threat". They look like a top 4 or 5 team in the West to me (and the gaps within that group don't look clear). As a Kraken fan they scare me more than any other team in the Pacific.
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Jan 30, 2023 23:24
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https://twitter.com/Canucks/status/1620190951183646720 IDK who Aatu Raty is but that seems like an iffy return all things considered.
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Jan 30, 2023 23:46
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That seems not great but 🤷🏼♂️
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Jan 30, 2023 23:46
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both sides lost
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Jan 30, 2023 23:49
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Raty is good, Lou is senile, Isles are ridiculous
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Jan 30, 2023 23:49
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Aye Doc posted:both sides lost
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Jan 30, 2023 23:51
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I remember Raty being an underrated favorite in his draft, wasn’t he at one point was even considered top-3? He has looked pretty promising at the NHL level. Solid prospect for sure. I have no idea why the Isles are trading to get even older! Classic Lou.
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Jan 30, 2023 23:52
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make a trade, doug
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Jan 30, 2023 23:54
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What are the conditions on the pick?
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Jan 30, 2023 23:56
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I think it's a pretty decent return for Vancouver, I've always liked Anthony Beauvillier and I think he could really impress on a team that wasn't so defense focused. Look for an uptick in scoring from him on Vancouver. Not as sure about Aatu Raty (I guess it's probably too early to tell with him) but I guess he is pretty hyped as a prospect? mid 1st round pick is obviously likely not going to amount to much any time soon. **I see that Beauvillier has had a real dip in performance this year with the Islanders compared to how he was doing before, potentially a real smart flip for Vancouver switching out the over-performing Horvat for the under-performing Beauvillier. Before the start of this season if you asked me which one I wanted on my team I may have said Beauvillier straight up, not to mention the additional assets. Starsfan fucked around with this message at 00:00 on Jan 31, 2023 |
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Jan 30, 2023 23:57
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That seems pretty fair. Sure it’s no Shane Wright or whatever dream scenario but atleast the main two pieces are young, I assume Beauvillier is just there to make the money work?
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Jan 30, 2023 23:57
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https://mobile.twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1620192842139443200 Well that's not great!
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Jan 30, 2023 23:58
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WeaponX posted:I remember Raty being an underrated favorite in his draft, wasn’t he at one point was even considered top-3? He has looked pretty promising at the NHL level. Solid prospect for sure. iirc he made the Finnish WJHC team at 16, got some first overall hype, then stagnated so badly that he didn't make the team at 17 I remember an Athletic article like four years ago where some writers fantasy drafted one player/coach/GM/owner/city or something, and somebody tried to galaxy-brain it by taking Raty as their player tinstaach fucked around with this message at 00:02 on Jan 31, 2023 |
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Jan 30, 2023 23:58
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| # ? Jun 4, 2024 16:49 |
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https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1620192289846067200?s=46&t=a66jJ3dGaVI5QxmUiA7Ktw
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