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Start page is the GOAT
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Feb 9, 2023 23:08
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Hadlock posted:What is the line of thinking that a product like chatgpt will ruin their search business The AI bot will tell them things like "google search is garbage" and "our searches are obviously distorted to maximize revenue" and "when a corporations changes it's motto from dont be evil to nothing, there's an obvious conclusion to draw".
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Feb 9, 2023 23:55
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What was the search engine where you paid money for someone else to find you a good link? You bid and people would mechanical turk what you wanted.
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Feb 10, 2023 00:40
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Hadlock posted:What is the line of thinking that a product like chatgpt will ruin their search business With ChatGPT or similiar AI product you can frame your search in a way to gather relevant information or solve a problem that could take multiple searches, and ChatGPT would organize all the information together for you in a sensible format. And you would not necessarily be distracted by any ads to do so. Lot of examples in this Twitter thread compared GIS results to ChatGPT results: https://twitter.com/jdjkelly/status/1598021488795586561?s=20&t=K_Ff5kqnlQSsCCtKSo9eCw
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Feb 10, 2023 01:05
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It was suggested I should fully record my bond adventure with BBBY, for posterity.  It has a 2k face value (Position Size), I paid 16.375 cents per dollar (Value). Should cost me about 327~ with a 2 dollar commission. The bond will yield almost 100 if BBBY makes the March 1st deadline payment with their dilution. I purchased it on Feb 8th.  My dd on the delayed payment to bondholders being possibly available to me, if they aren't penniless. To facilitate my bond dreams I used IBKR's trader's workstation: "Bond Scanner". This tool is the only one I know, unless I can search by CUSIP numbers via internet info. The bond scanner has no fancy charts, just a spread. The spread is a soft, suggested pricing. No one is obligated to fill you on the spread, afaik. But I got filled in the middle once! Even if you set your bid to the asking price, it may take some time for a person to fill you. It only took me a few short minutes, because I imagine there's a lot of liquidity. You can fill in company names where I put "Bed" in the second column. You can search by things like rating if you want real bonds in column 3 where you search by qualities. (AAA - Baaa3 are investment grade). BBBY has a rating of C, which is "Rated as the lowest quality, usually in default and low likelihood of recovering principal or interest." According to Moody.  IBKR had a .6% fee of $2 for this purchase, which seems to be much more than the advertised .2%. The smallest unit I could buy was 2k instead of 1k, so maybe I was charged the minimum $1 twice. Thanks for reading, and good luck on your own bond journeys! I plan on selling if there's any good news or if they make a coupon payment.
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Feb 10, 2023 01:09
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Toalpaz posted:
I was loving around with Fidelity's (non-garbage) bond stuff and their commission is $1 per bond ($1000 face value) so that's probably the same here. One thing about the secondary bond market is that it is a back alley chop shop compared to equities. Liquidity and execution obligations are way, way less compared to NMS stocks, and bond traders will gently caress you if given the chance. Even relatively upfront commission of $1 a bond can absolutely tank your yield if you're buying short dated bonds. For example, a bond quoted at 5.5% only has about $4-5 of interest per month per $1000. If you buy something that matures in 2 or 3 months you'd be losing 6-10% of your profits paying the commission. Edit: obviously the flip side to this is the commission is a lot cheaper if you buy long dated issues but then you'll get hosed by J Po raising rates if you even need to sell it before maturity. Plus it makes your portfolio look super sad because everything gets marked to thin liquidy markets. mrmcd fucked around with this message at 04:38 on Feb 10, 2023 |
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Feb 10, 2023 04:34
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I bought some T-bills this week for the first time. >4% yield, no default risk, no trading fee, no state taxes on earnings in my taxable account. Also incredibly boring. Nothing in the stock market is really jumping out at me as particularly underpriced or ready to rocket up at the moment though.
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Feb 10, 2023 05:01
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Boring is good, boring is money in the bank. If you're excited about stocks you're probably loving something up.
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Feb 10, 2023 05:07
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If you've got an emergency fund parked in a savings account a thing you can do to squeeze a little more interest out of it is to put that money in brokered CDs. 1 - 3 month CDs are paying about 100-125 bps more than internet banks high yield savings accounts, and are also FDIC insured. Plus you don't need to keep opening and closing new accounts to rate chase and you can say funny poo poo like "this month my money is parked at the Northern Indiana Community Bank of Corn, and the Mizubashi Japanese Industrial New York Financing Bank" But yeah save investments are otherwise boring as poo poo.
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Feb 10, 2023 05:12
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ARTPUP posted:Bought another 104 shares of InPlay Oil (IPO) @$2.78. Should be paying off most of it's debt this year with a 6%+ dividend. Look what the president says, he likes oil now! I don't get what they are laughing at. Do they think oil dependence is going to be gone in a year or two?
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Feb 10, 2023 06:31
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Hadlock posted:What is the line of thinking that a product like chatgpt will ruin their search business If you look at what the beta version can already do right now, it seems pretty clear why Google is feeling the pressure.
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Feb 10, 2023 11:21
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SkunkDuster posted:I don't get what they are laughing at. Do they think oil dependence is going to be gone in a year or two? Short term? no. Even medium term (5yrs)? Yes, very likely to strongly change. Oil demand has been globally dropping for years and continues unabated. edit to add: Good research on this from last year: https://wolfstreet.com/2022/09/14/g...ust-1997-level/ notwithoutmyanus fucked around with this message at 12:18 on Feb 10, 2023 |
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Feb 10, 2023 11:59
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SkunkDuster posted:I don't get what they are laughing at. Do they think oil dependence is going to be gone in a year or two? Spoiler, they are idiots.
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Feb 10, 2023 13:19
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Yeah regardless of how you measure it, personal car use has begun to taper off, and by some measures already leveled off   Total number of licensed drivers under 65 in the US has tapered off too but I can't find that graph right now I would expect personal vehicle gas consumption to fall off a cliff starting in 2035 or so. Amazon and UPS are aggressively rolling out electric delivery van fleets, and Tesla is not the only one who rolled out class 8 electric semi trucks to paying customers last year GM can't build battery manufacturing capacity fast enough, I think they have 5 or 6 factories under construction right now
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Feb 10, 2023 13:22
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Leperflesh posted:and also was still up for the day even at the last tick shown on that chart How about now?
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Feb 10, 2023 16:04
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Hadlock posted:Yeah regardless of how you measure it, personal car use has begun to taper off, and by some measures already leveled off Isnt it the exact opposite in China and India though? I havent seen any numbers for miles driver for those two nations, but I have seen the auto sales figures for them, and right up until COVID hit they were growing like crazy. Im not aware of any major changes to Chinese infrastructure plans that would curtail those numbers once(if) things go back to semi-normal there. India I am less familiar with but the situation seems similar. So while domestically cars may be on the decline internationally it seems like a different story.
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Feb 10, 2023 17:28
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How do you tell if a stock is overvalued? Just looking at the trend of past prices and news coverage, I'm expecting a price drop when hype dies down a bit, but I also don't want to gently caress up and just not buy what looks like a very safe investment in the likely event that I'm wrong
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Feb 10, 2023 18:32
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Yeah I don't know what the future holds there. I can see it skewing electric though I've only been to shanghai and even then it was more like an 8 hour layover, but ten years ago it seemed like everyone there was driving around on scooters powered by two giant lead acid car batteries. Every shop had a precariously long extension cord snaking out the front door to the sidewalk in the rain, and 2-3 scooters were plugged into each power strip. It's been a while since I heard but I think personal car ownership was heavily restricted and getting a license plate required a lottery system, at least in beijing. There were stories about people ignoring the license plate lottery and driving low speed, unregistered electic cars to skirt the ban. China is a world leader in both electric trains and battery electric busses. Honda is doing a pilot in india to test their upcoming electric super cub tech (super cub is big money for honda in SE asia, tens of millions sold annually), for tuk tuks, and their major car manufacturers all sell electric cars now sell at least two electric cars, with a couple of options in the $12k range? Places like Delhi are choked with smog so I would imagine they're going to do what they can to push the country electric while not bankrupting taxi drivers during the switch. Honda has a bunch of (biased) media coming out of india that with quick charge, taxi drivers prefer electric. Most half-well run governments are targeting 2035-2045 for full phase out of ICE vehicles and commercial buyers have been targeting electric for their medium and light duty fleets for a while now due to reliability and overall lower cost of operation The Door Frame posted:How do you tell if a stock is overvalued? Wait for me to start hyping it up
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Feb 10, 2023 19:21
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Hadlock posted:
Data on this stuff is always such a headache for slobs like me to evaluate, but it seems pretty well established that the number of car sales per year in China nearly doubled from 2010 to 2018. The demand is absolutely massive as their middle class develops and establishes itself. And I realize China is pushing for electrification of vehicles too but the majority of those cars are still gas powered. Its places like India and China where demand for oil is going to remain high and that will likely continue to prop up the price globally for a while to come. China car sales: https://www.statista.com/statistics/233743/vehicle-sales-in-china/ US car sales: https://www.statista.com/statistics/199983/us-vehicle-sales-since-1951/
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Feb 10, 2023 19:50
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I think the biggest problem with full electric lineups is the political will for building the accompanied infrastructure needed to replace ICE cars. Big countries like China, India, and America would need so many super fast charging stations built in the middle of nowhere and kept operational to have their highway systems accommodate electric cars. A large enough electric truck industry might make existing truck stops get charging stations, but does anyone besides Tesla have an electric semi? Hadlock posted:Wait for me to start hyping it up How hyped are you about heavy industry right now?
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Feb 10, 2023 19:57
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India is so reliant on fossil fuels and their population is still so rural that there is no way in the next 2-3 decades they’re even half electric, 25% would be a miracle to me (unless there is a battery revolution that drives cost way way down).
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Feb 10, 2023 20:10
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Is africa going electric too? South america?
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Feb 10, 2023 20:34
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ARTPUP posted:Picked up 1000 more shares of Mereo BioPharma (MREO) @.97/share. Basically Rubric Capital owns around 31 million shares of the company and wants results. Rumours are Mereo turned down buyout options, so Rubric walked into the offices like Tony Soprano holding a baseball bat screaming "Where's my F***ing money!" Rubric stepped in and after the threat of a shareholder vote to remove people from the board of directors, Mereo came to a deal, ensuring Rubric's nominated choices sat on the board. This should be an interesting year for the company... sitting on a good pile of cash with little debt... maybe, maybe... I played $MREO back when the buyout rumors began and had a nice little run but I didn’t the stock would ever go anywhere again. Mostly, my concern was their pipeline not being all that valuable to a bigger bio (and the Rubric drama) but I also held heavy $GOON bags so what do I know? lol Funny thing is I saw your post and gave it serious consideration to jump back in - I had a buy order set up when it was at $.83 this morning but didn’t pull the trigger. Oh well, I’m happy for you if this is the run up to a BO 
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Feb 11, 2023 03:04
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Hadlock posted:Most half-well run governments are targeting 2035-2045 for full phase out of ICE vehicles and commercial buyers have been targeting electric for their medium and light duty fleets for a while now due to reliability and overall lower cost of operation This is the big factor. Car manufacturers aren't going to keep parallel supply chains, production lines, R&D etc open if they can avoid it. They're going to pivot to whatever their major markets are asking for (or required by law to buy) and everyone else is going to be dragged along with it whether they like it or not. The EU and some of the biggest states in the US are restricting ICE sales past 2035, and China leaning into EVs pretty heavily that's a very big chunk of the global car market. A few years back I was chatting to a guy who worked somewhat high up at Ford and he was saying that the future car market is probably mostly EVs with every manufacturer making a couple of generic, infrequently updated ICE versions of their most popular models for people/places that can't or won't use EVs. Those remaining ICE models will be the ones with enough sales to justify EV and ICE assembly lines, and will probably be stuck with older tech because the ROI on developing new ICE engines and other components won't be there.
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Feb 11, 2023 03:44
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Do we really need new ICE engines though. Modern designs are far beyond adequate.
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Feb 11, 2023 06:01
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DNK posted:Do we really need new ICE engines though. Modern designs are far beyond adequate. Yes, there is still demand for those and cutting off new supply would be political suicide and the market will move with economic incentives. Plus the US electrical grid isn't really prepared for the conversion to happen quickly. They need time to build infrastructure and how to create electricity at the times people are charging. It's kinda a good thing it will take a while, though it should be strongly encouraged by government on the back of non carbon electricity creation. Setting a reminder to rebuild TBT when it hits 27 ish again.
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Feb 11, 2023 06:29
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Sorry, I meant new designs of ICE engines. I’m not arguing for a cessation of ICE production.
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Feb 11, 2023 08:56
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Mazda has been doing a lot of heavy research into new ICE designs. Their latest offering is pretty neat. It uses a spark plug like a regular engine, but the plug only ignites a bit of fuel in the chamber. That ignited fuel then compresses the fuel-air mixture in the rest of the chamber to it's ignition point. This boosts mileage by 20-30% over a traditional gas engine. Or so they claim.
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Feb 11, 2023 10:13
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If we're not yet using the farts of a driver to spool another turbine to compress more air we still have more ICE research to do
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Feb 11, 2023 14:36
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So... Short any company that airs an ad with Larry David in the next 3 hours?
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Feb 13, 2023 00:02
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Hadlock posted:8% bump for a loving cancer vaccine that reduces mortality rate by 50% seems awfully low Serious answer as someone in pharma-land: Don't trust Phase 2 results for anything to be definitive, no matter how nice they are. Sure, it's promising -- but until that Ph3 data is in the bag, you can always have an insane surprise. Bad results in Ph2 = you're hosed, but good or great results in Ph2 just means you're not hosed yet. View them that way.
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Feb 13, 2023 01:37
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Sundae posted:Serious answer as someone in pharma-land: Don't trust Phase 2 results for anything to be definitive, no matter how nice they are. Sure, it's promising -- but until that Ph3 data is in the bag, you can always have an insane surprise. Bad results in Ph2 = you're hosed, but good or great results in Ph2 just means you're not hosed yet. View them that way. Luckily it seems like lately all you need is really good phase 2 data and you get approved! Heck, dostarlimab got approved off of a phase I!
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Feb 13, 2023 05:05
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My guess heavy industry stays mostly flat with low growthOscar Wild posted:Plus the US electrical grid isn't really prepared for the conversion to happen quickly. They need time to build infrastructure and Is there information out there about this from a non biased source I've heard from multiple people inside PG&E (NorCal electric utility of many infamies) that they have more than adequate generation and distribution capacity already but they're obviously not unbiased In other news I saw Superbowl ads for both electric jeep wranglers and a "coming end of 2024" electric dodge ram pickup. If you're gonna spend money to move the needle on electric adoption by middle America that's a good place to start
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Feb 13, 2023 06:07
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Fireside Nut posted:I played $MREO back when the buyout rumors began and had a nice little run but I didn’t the stock would ever go anywhere again. Mostly, my concern was their pipeline not being all that valuable to a bigger bio (and the Rubric drama) but I also held heavy $GOON bags so what do I know? lol Yeah I wish I bought it in Dec when it was .55/share. I've heard $4 to even $10 but who knows? Place your chips down and let the wheel spin... Got this in the mail yesterday from my old friend Sesen Bio (SESN) Well it seems taking their Vicineum to a Phase 3 for the FDA is going to cost a lot of money so rather than do that, they'll take half of the cash they have and give it back to the shareholders, then merge with Carisma Therapeutics for a whole new FDA dance! I'm guessing they are going to try and sell the Vicineum research to a larger firm to take it to the next level, but who knows. This book is an inch and quarter thick. Fun reading, oh and since I own shares in two accounts, I get two copies! Probably better to just have a photo of money burning.  
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Feb 13, 2023 21:43
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Residency Evil posted:Luckily it seems like lately all you need is really good phase 2 data and you get approved! This remains forever my go-to article for this kind of discussion: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3922928/ I worked for PFE during that time period. The hype around that drug was downright surreal.
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Feb 13, 2023 21:50
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opportunity to get short on ABNB here? Great earnings, but aren't they just bilking the crap out of their reputation with all the fees, and its about to come down?
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Feb 14, 2023 23:51
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I picked up 100 shares of BBBY with the intent of selling calls to weirdos for the next few weeks. I suspect somewhere in the high $1.00s is where itll linger for quite a while so maybe this will cover my weekly coffee for a bit. Or maybe itll do the inevitable and go to zero right away, depriving me of coffee for a while. Im living on the financial edge here folks!
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Feb 15, 2023 16:24
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Buncha meme stocks and crypto climbing today while indexes are farting around, cut the music Powell and Gensler, send us all to hell.
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Feb 15, 2023 19:53
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DapperDraculaDeer posted:I picked up 100 shares of BBBY with the intent of selling calls to weirdos for the next few weeks. I suspect somewhere in the high $1.00s is where itll linger for quite a while so maybe this will cover my weekly coffee for a bit. Or maybe itll do the inevitable and go to zero right away, depriving me of coffee for a while. Im living on the financial edge here folks! Coulda maybe just done this with options only, instead of holding the actual equity bags. Not quite sure what the bet you want to make is, but I kinda like this:
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Feb 15, 2023 20:02
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My expectation is that the stock will trade sideway for a while. This is based on the pure strain crazy noises its cultists are making as well as Hudson Bay Capitals interest in keep the price afloat while they sell their shares to the aforementioned cultists. If I can continue to sell calls to cover my coffee habit for six months then sell for slightly less then I bought for, resulting in an overall net gain I will be very happy. I did consider just selling naked calls, but Im just not comfortable with naked options in general. Im like a trading never nude. This does seem like the situation where options provide a much better alternative than touching the bags directly so Im going to give it some thought. Maybe my jorts are overdue for a washing anyways.
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Feb 15, 2023 20:50
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