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Knightsoul posted:Don't waste your precious time reading/believing those pretentious war reports: they are just war propaganda, fake data cooked by the M.I. 6 just to keep foolin' uckrainian population to sacrifice their country/citizens for the U.S./U.K. interests. Boris Johnson, master of puppets. The peoples of the world are like putty in his taloned fist (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 13, 2023 00:53
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But it's true that everyone should take those numbers with a big grain of salt, both russia and ukraine have every reason to lie about casualty figures in the war
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Feb 13, 2023 00:57
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Flavahbeast posted:But it's true that everyone should take those numbers with a big grain of salt, both russia and ukraine have every reason to lie about casualty figures in the war UA General Staff info on Russian losses is pretty outlandish and only useful to see the overall dynamic - as Russia is trying to go on offensive, the casualties rise drastically.
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Feb 13, 2023 01:04
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Blut posted:Are these losses deaths (ie actual casualties including wounded would be approaching 500% this) or all-in casualties (deaths & wounded)? This is UA reporting on Russia's killed. They estimate wounded by taking the killed number and multiplying by 2 or 3 I think. The numbers for equipment seemed reasonable and the killed seemed like an over estimation. Recently they posted quite a few aircraft losses which had no corroborating evidence at all which has made me doubt the numbers more, aside from the general overestimation. The thought is that you can use it as a reliable measure of changes in intensity if not for the absolute number itself.
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Feb 13, 2023 01:20
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Tevery Best posted:There's never been any need for stuff like that before, I don't think. Giant plantations can't use chemical solutions, since that would risk poisoning consumers or the plants, and airports obviously are a no-go in that department (aside from massive human traffic that would be at risk there's also the matter of air traffic stopping deployment). The closest there is, I think, is spraying scents that repel birds, which is clearly a non-viable solution in a combat zone. Rocket launch facilities have to repel birds, but I think their solution is just loud sirens/noisemakers, which probably aren't a great choice in a conflict. fake edit: Apparently the Space Shuttle used balloons designed to look like predator's eyes.
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Feb 13, 2023 01:33
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How inaccurate has UA published estimates proven in retrospect? How much have they differed from other sources?
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Feb 13, 2023 01:34
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Ynglaur posted:How inaccurate has UA published estimates proven in retrospect? How much have they differed from other sources? Simple - if you believe their KIA figures and extrapolate even a pretty dire 1:4 rate for wounded, then there shouldn't be much of fighting force of Russians in Ukraine anymore. Current situation shows that it is not the case. US drop their estimates from time to time in briefings and they look closer to reality.
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Feb 13, 2023 01:42
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1:4 would be pretty good for Russia. I think it's much worse than that.
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Feb 13, 2023 02:03
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Realistically if its an active combat zone with artillery flying and poo poo the birds are likely just going to leave themselves. Stuff like space launch centers is different because they go long periods of time without launches and the birds will come back.
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Feb 13, 2023 02:13
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Bashez posted:1:4 would be pretty good for Russia. I think it's much worse than that. Possibly, but assuming that UA forces are not outright inflating numbers (at least for public consumption) they are likely mistaking a lot of wounded for dead and/or accidentally counting some twice. (At least, assuming their reported numbers are not 100% confirmed "these are how many bodies we've buried" numbers--which I do not think they are.)
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Feb 13, 2023 02:37
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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-11-2023 posted:The Russian military command is deploying its most elite units to the Bakhmut area in smaller formations using urban infiltration tactics, according to the limited footage of Russian tactics in the area that ISW has observed.[9] These tactics seem to be resulting in significant tactical Russian advances in the Bakhmut area that could lead to operational gains if Ukrainian forces choose to withdraw from Bakhmut. The latest ISW report was rather uneventful, but the above quote contradicts the narrative that RuAF has given up on their initiative in Bakmut. Some educated minds were saying that Wagner replacements were low quality regular army troops. I found that tidbit interesting. Also, I didn't realize Wagner's contract to recruit from the prisons ended.
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Feb 13, 2023 03:56
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RockWhisperer posted:Also, I didn't realize Wagner's contract to recruit from the prisons ended. Prigozhin is spiraling. His bid to oust Shoigu has failed and he hasn't taken Bakhmut. Wagner is losing a lot of its privileges and once they're no longer a threat he'll commit suicide with two bullets to the back of the head.
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Feb 13, 2023 04:01
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What's really going on here? Small elite units using urban infiltration tactics or human wave attacks of convicts because Russia ran out of tanks? Maybe the answer is both.
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Feb 13, 2023 04:49
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adebisi lives posted:What's really going on here? Small elite units using urban infiltration tactics or human wave attacks of convicts because Russia ran out of tanks? Maybe the answer is both. Both. They do both.
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Feb 13, 2023 04:52
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Morrow posted:Prigozhin is spiraling. His bid to oust Shoigu has failed and he hasn't taken Bakhmut. Wagner is losing a lot of its privileges and once they're no longer a threat he'll commit suicide with two bullets to the back of the head. Surprise surprise. And it's not like he's a superior general/administrator that got outmaneuvered, either. He hasn't proven he's any more capable. The RuAF pushed hard for 4 months to take Severodonetsk, and Prigozhin's failure to take Bakhmut has been going on for at least that long. After each of them was given the reins, there were a lot of news stories about how Prigozhin and Surovikin are these cunning figures playing 4D chess, but the only trick up their sleeves was moving the brutality slider from 10 to 11 (Surovikin wasting precision munitions on civilian infrastructure, Prigozhin shoveling mobiks onto the front like coal into a furnace).
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Feb 13, 2023 05:03
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Wagner's priority was to tie up Ukrainian forces and give newly mobilized troops time to undergo basic training. They have churned through about 50k disposable prisoners, while taking great care to preserve their core professional troops. The Russian winter offensive has begun across multiple fronts, it's just ramping up slowly. Russian MOD is reportedly taking over the prisoner pipeline. It's no longer a Wagner affair. Newly released prisoners are handed conscription papers and driven directly to recruitment centers. Refusal to serve at that point is a punishable offense, with fines and several years in prison. Edit: source and info in Russian https://gulagu-net.ru/news/2023-01-06-1542.html It seems like the Wagner group actually accomplished their mission for the time being Nitrox fucked around with this message at 06:42 on Feb 13, 2023 |
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Feb 13, 2023 06:17
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In regards to both sides KIA/WIA ratios, the inability and high risk of getting medevac helos close to the front line is possibly leading to similiar ratios to that of WW2 which was 1:3 (on average), I am willing to bet it is closer to the Vietnam War 1:4 ratio due to advances in IFAK and that the front lines are not so far from city centers/Hospitals. Fortunately we do not see to much about other side consistently targeting Hospitals yet.
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Feb 13, 2023 06:31
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Really poignant https://twitter.com/OliverGMarsden/status/1624694383021793281
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Feb 13, 2023 06:54
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Telsa Cola posted:Realistically if its an active combat zone with artillery flying and poo poo the birds are likely just going to leave themselves. Stuff like space launch centers is different because they go long periods of time without launches and the birds will come back. I remember reading about birds in WWI, and this doesn't seem to be the case. Instead, birds tend to aggresively ignore Human noises like artillery and just go on living like normal.
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Feb 13, 2023 07:28
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fatherboxx posted:considering it was filmed by a drone, maybe not the most effective measure  it's a tracking radar, it's not supposed to shoot things.RockWhisperer posted:The latest ISW report was rather uneventful, but the above quote contradicts the narrative that RuAF has given up on their initiative in Bakmut. Some educated minds were saying that Wagner replacements were low quality regular army troops. I found that tidbit interesting. quote:The disparity between the limited but significant Russian advances in the Bakhmut area and the lack of meaningful advances elsewhere in Ukraine may support milblogger and Ukrainian observations that Russian forces are unable to secure rapid advances through traditional mechanized maneuver warfare. The Russian military command is deploying its most elite units to the Bakhmut area in smaller formations using urban infiltration tactics, according to the limited footage of Russian tactics in the area that ISW has observed.[9] These tactics seem to be resulting in significant tactical Russian advances in the Bakhmut area that could lead to operational gains if Ukrainian forces choose to withdraw from Bakhmut. Russian offensive operations elsewhere in Donetsk Oblast and along the Svatove-Kreminna line have resulted in marginal advances without operational significance thus far. ISW has observed limited footage of Russian tactics in areas separate from the Bakhmut effort that suggests that Russian forces are engaging in more traditional mechanized maneuver warfare tactics with regular, not elite, motorized rifle, naval infantry, and tank elements.[10] All the formations so far observed were rendered combat-ineffective in earlier phases of the war and have very likely been reconstituted with mobilized personnel. The Russian military appears to have been unable to prepare its mobilized personnel to conduct effective mechanized offensive operations in the short period of time since their call-ups, as ISW forecasted.[11] The lack of adequate vehicles, ammunition, and other materiel is likely contributing to the ineffectiveness of Russian mechanized maneuver tactics thus far. The Russian military is unlikely to be able to scale its approach from the Bakhmut area to the wider theater because the tactics it is using in Bakhmut are more suited to dense urban environments and because Russian forces lack the number of elite formations needed to conduct a larger offensive in eastern Ukraine in the same fashion. ISW‘s assessment regarding the prospects for future Russian mechanized offensive operations is offered with low confidence due to the limited available footage depicting Russian military tactics across the entire front line. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 10:05 on Feb 13, 2023 |
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Feb 13, 2023 09:37
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https://twitter.com/ShanghaiMacro/status/1625036403993378817 (plus Germany, with the Munich conference) https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-02-13/Senior-Chinese-diplomat-to-visit-Europe-from-February-14-22--1hod6FaK1kk/index.html or maybe that sequence is arranged so that Hungary will undermine any semblance of European unity in advance of the Russia visit
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Feb 13, 2023 09:59
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Speaking of the Munich conference, there's also a Monday-Wednesday NATO defence ministers meet-up (technically Tue-Wed, but Stoltenberg is doing a kick-off presser today). Ukraine, Finland, and Sweden have been invited to attend.
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Feb 13, 2023 10:31
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Do the Chinese really have any interest in brokering peace other than for their own prestige? A weakened and dependent Russia is probably in their best interest.
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Feb 13, 2023 10:54
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Dick Ripple posted:Do the Chinese really have any interest in brokering peace other than for their own prestige? A weakened and dependent Russia is probably in their best interest. No, it's probably not in Beijing's interest to have Russian conventional military capacity ground down to a non-entity, because that would allow the US to focus west, on containing China in the Pacific. Beijing likely believes it needs Russia as a credible threat to American interests in Europe.
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Feb 13, 2023 11:18
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Aside from humanitarian reasons I think Xi would probably like things to wrap up because a long war between Russia and Ukraine has more potential downsides than upsides for China. A further weakened Russia would be more dependent on China, but it would also be more fragile, with the possibility of someone more belligerent or more EU-friendly taking power. There's also the spectre of a nuclear exchange, which would obviously be a real bad time for everyone.
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Feb 13, 2023 11:22
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Maybe they think they can broker a peace that includes Russia getting to keep what it has taken, to set a precedence for when they eventually try the same with Taiwan? Or maybe it's just kayfabe to be able to say they tried while offering no practical solution. While China has tried to maintain a position of "This war is tragic and should be ended as soon as possible", they've refused to denounce Russia for the invasion and continually add the ~legitimate security concerns~ qualifier to their stance that national sovereignty must be respected. It's pretty clear that they don't see anything inherently wrong in what Russia is doing, but they just don't like saying that out loud.
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Feb 13, 2023 11:24
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China does not want Russia to be so much of a problem for Western Europe that Western Europe sanctions Chinese exports (unlike the first Cold War, the awkward fact is that China is intensely dependent on the US and EU as consumer markets), or that Western Europe sees its interests aligned with the US in the Pacific a la Baltic gestures on Taiwan. It wants a multipolar world of bilateral negotiations, not bloc politics. Its most preferred outcome - where France and Germany welcome a Russian return to great power status as a counterweight to American influence, and openly rejects attempts US invitations to involve it in the Taiwan question - is probably moribund. The question is now just what the second-best outcome is.
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Feb 13, 2023 11:24
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The war is pretty annoying for China on a whole range of issues. China want to be seen as the elder statesman internationally, and being associated with Russia's war is not helping. The war has everyone looking at their supply chains and where critical vulnerabilities lie. That's bad for China with its export economy. It has also caused the USA to be a lot more forceful towards China, which is bad because China's economy also depends on imports of high-tech goods. The world market getting wonky is also bad for an export economy. Like China's. Russia isn't that big of a customer and a recession in Russia doesn't help. There's no doubt in my mind that China would quite like that source of instability to go away asap, preferably of course with a piece brokered by Rational Elder Statesman China.
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Feb 13, 2023 11:26
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What’s extra awkward is that any rhetorical support for Russia’s cause in Ukraine is functionally contradictory to PRC’s policy towards Taiwan.
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Feb 13, 2023 11:31
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cinci zoo sniper posted:What’s extra awkward is that any rhetorical support for Russia’s cause in Ukraine is functionally contradictory to PRC’s policy towards Taiwan. Isn't China's policy toward Taiwan self-contradictory in the first place? My understanding of the situation there is that China maintains foreign nations have no business interfering in the internal affairs of other nations, but China is allowed to mess with Taiwan because it considers Taiwan a part of China that is just temporarily exerting an excess of autonomy. The policy is only coherent if you accept the premise that Taiwan is not a sovereign nation, otherwise it's just the same bullshit imperialistic arguments that Russia has used (among many others) to justify their own invasion of Ukraine. I'm not super-familiar with the details of Chinese foreign policy, so it's quite possible I'm oversimplifying it maybe.
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Feb 13, 2023 11:41
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Antigravitas posted:The war is pretty annoying for China on a whole range of issues.
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Feb 13, 2023 11:47
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Slashrat posted:Maybe they think they can broker a peace that includes Russia getting to keep what it has taken, to set a precedence for when they eventually try the same with Taiwan? Or maybe it's just kayfabe to be able to say they tried while offering no practical solution. I think you are reading too much (or not enough?) into those statements. For geopolitical reasons, China will not denounce Russia. It's allied-ish, and China wants Russia to be on its side countering "The West". On the other hand, China would really prefer there not to be a destabilising conflict that could impact its economy and international standing. So you get Centrist China: "War is bad, mhkay" and "Can't we all just get along", while not outright disavowing Russia, but also not outright supporting them. Just awkwardly trying to navigate an embarassing situation.
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Feb 13, 2023 11:47
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:No, it's probably not in Beijing's interest to have Russian conventional military capacity ground down to a non-entity, because that would allow the US to focus west, on containing China in the Pacific. Beijing likely believes it needs Russia as a credible threat to American interests in Europe. That is a good point. However, Russia will not be able to disengage from Ukraine anytime soon without making some concessions that at this point I doubt Putin is able or willing to make.
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Feb 13, 2023 12:26
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Slashrat posted:Isn't China's policy toward Taiwan self-contradictory in the first place? Considering the history of China, the PRC still considers Taiwan to be a part of China that is temporarily occupied by the illegitimate regime the PRC ousted. It's the same reason why, initially, Taiwan still claimed sovereignty over the entirety of (in their eyes, occupied by an illegitimate rebel group) continental China but also parts of Mongolia etc. which were part of the Chinese state way back in the interbellum. It's a fairly recent development in Taiwanese society that they started considering themselves a separate nation rather than a government in exile that one day wishes to resume control over the mainland. So in that respect it is coherent in the sense of "we have consistently been saying Taiwan is ours since 1945. As a matter of fact, it was part of China when we began our revolution" (in more diplomatic language). China's fuckery elsewhere in Asia (in particular, building islands in the South China Sea and so on to extend its territorial waters) is basically contradictory with their messaging of respecting sovereignty though
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Feb 13, 2023 12:31
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Hersh's latest is getting a lot of play in Chinese media, as did earlier Ukraine biolab coverage. It would be difficult for China to pitch a dramatic shift domestically, anyway. China rationally (even in the Chinese sense of the term) wants a reset to a globalizing world that welcomes Chinese exports, but also would like to indulge its domestic demand for weltpolitik. Chinese thinkers who grew up in a world of Belgrade embassy bombing and Iraq II want a narrative where France and Germany are chomping at the bit for China's vision of multipolarity. Reconciling those two competing desires is a lot of material meant for domestic consumption that then boxes it in subsequently.
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Feb 13, 2023 12:34
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Cicero posted:With the rise of small drones dropping grenades, is there the possibility of small man-portable radars or similar to detect those drones at an infantry squad level? Or is that kind of tech too hard to miniaturize?
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Feb 13, 2023 13:18
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-13/eu-is-set-to-propose-new-sanctions-on-russian-tech-and-vehicles Bloomberg is reporting that 10th sanctions package from EU will be attempting to go after the supply chain of the western parts identified in equipment used by Russia since the last February. Other speculated targets - heavy vehicles, Wagner, sanctions avoidance, Russian and Iranian drone industries.
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Feb 13, 2023 14:23
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ronya posted:https://twitter.com/ShanghaiMacro/status/1625036403993378817 With both sides arming for major offensives that they believe will change the course of the war, I'd say negotiations over the next 4-6 months have almost zero chance of going anywhere. Like trying mediation in the build up to D-Day.
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Feb 13, 2023 14:37
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evil_bunnY posted:it's not really worth carrying the sensor if you can't do poo poo about it (aka you need an effector). Jammers are countered by autonomy, and physical effectors that can touch even consumer drones can be bulky, heavy and expensive. I'd hazard the smallest mover you'll get them on is something like a quad bike. The ground attack drones I've seen tend take 2-3 seconds (assuming the video is real time) to drop stuff on the ground. That's 50-150ft up, which is close enough that you could hit it with small arms if you knew where it was. I could eventually see something like a smartphone with an app that you point at the sky and it buzzes if something flies overhead and then starts hovering. Then you shoot at it. Won't help for the high altitude drones but those are more likely to be detected by radar .
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Feb 13, 2023 14:42
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Washington Post's morning world newsletter has an interview with the Austrian foreign minister. Bolding mine:quote:Today’s WorldView: We’re nearing the one-year mark of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. How has it changed Europe?
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Feb 13, 2023 14:49
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