|
PeterWeller posted:It's still not a big deal from a national security perspective, though. Why do you say that?
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2023 16:00
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 04:29 |
|
|
MarcusSA posted:Why do you say that? For all the reasons MikeC listed.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2023 16:04
|
|
|
PeterWeller posted:It's still not a big deal from a national security perspective, though. What I'm hearing is that the US should definitely get a fleet of surveillance balloons on station over Xinjiang and start monitoring the internment camps.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2023 17:36
|
|
|
Family Values posted:What I'm hearing is that the US should definitely get a fleet of Fixed. And when they shoot them down themselves, publicly repeat verbatim their own condemnation of excessive force back to them for each one shot down. I imagine there are cheaper ways to piss in their cereal though if they were really after that.
|
|
#
?
Feb 9, 2023 18:53
|
|
|
Family Values posted:What I'm hearing is that the US should definitely get a fleet of surveillance balloons on station over Xinjiang and start monitoring the internment camps. Given prevailing winds wouldn't they have to float over Russia first? They'd get shot down before they even got close to China.
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2023 07:12
|
|
|
Charlz Guybon posted:They'd get shot down before they even got close to China. Not by Russia
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2023 08:48
|
|
|
Family Values posted:What I'm hearing is that the US should definitely get a fleet of surveillance balloons on station over Xinjiang and start monitoring the internment camps. US remote sensing companies are already providing coverage, e.g. https://www.planet.com/pulse/pulitzer-prize-journalists-satellite-imagery-chinese-internment-camps/ and spy balloons are unlikely to improve on that, especially given the sovereign territory risks. China also has extensive satellite networks second only to the US so it's still a bit unclear why they wanted to push the envelope with spy balloons, unless these were testing payloads (which seems probable: https://www.newsweek.com/china-spy-balloon-size-200-ft-jet-airliner-1779395)
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2023 15:19
|
|
|
i fly airplanes posted:US remote sensing companies are already providing coverage, e.g. https://www.planet.com/pulse/pulitzer-prize-journalists-satellite-imagery-chinese-internment-camps/ and spy balloons are unlikely to improve on that, especially given the sovereign territory risks. I would assume that partly, distance matters. A balloon can carry a much larger payload than is easy to get into orbit and is flying at a much lower altitude. Being closer to your point of interest while also having larger sensors allows you to, in theory, get better resolution of whatever it is you're capturing (imagery, electromagnetic signals, etc.).
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2023 16:32
|
|
|
Was shared in a couple C-SPAM threads, but didnt make its way over here despite being preliminary assessments on the balloon: US officials disclosed new details about the balloon's capabilities. Here's what we know Notable tidbits: - Balloon belongs to a wave of balloons which have crossed 40 countries - They took pictures of it; quote:High-resolution imagery from U-2 flybys revealed that the high-altitude balloon was capable of conducting signals intelligence collection operations - Anonymous US officials are saying that understanding the purpose of the balloon would be important for "future criminal charges that could be brought.", which I'd figure is anonymous saber rattling. - Pentagon re-confirms that the balloon is not capable of anything that China can already accomplish with its satellites or by other means. - Another anonymous source believes that it would provide better imaging and the ability to steer & hover over desired collection areas; it has yet to be confirmed that these balloons are capable of guided movement - Anonymous source says that US leadership believes China's statement that their senior leadership were unaware of its existence over US territory; could have played into the recent sacking in their meteorology department. - Pentagon confirmed that it mitigated any collection ability the balloon would have had - Bad weather is complicating retrieval of balloon components - Balloon contained english writing - Anonymous state department official believes the balloon wave was developed to conduct surveillance, manufacturer is "tied to the PLA" which could apply to basically any significant electronics factory - Sanctions are being considered - US is trying to contact every country the balloons have floated over E: Fixed the bit that was causing confusion. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 20:48 on Feb 10, 2023 |
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2023 19:34
|
|
|
quote:High-resolution imagery from U-2 flybys revealed that the high-altitude balloon was capable of conducting signals intelligence collection operations. quote:- Pentagon re-confirms that the balloon is not capable of anything that China can already accomplish with its satellites These 2 statements seem potentially incongruent to each other. Edit. The quote was cut short. "by other means was missing". So it makes sense now. Not quite a nothing burger but nothing of real concern. MikeC fucked around with this message at 19:54 on Feb 10, 2023 |
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2023 19:49
|
|
|
MikeC posted:These 2 statements seem potentially incongruent to each other. "or other means" was cut off.
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2023 19:52
|
|
Your summary appears selective.quote:Another source familiar with the briefings said officials said the balloon would give the Chinese better photos and signals collection than satellites, as well as a better ability to steer and hover longer over collection targets.
|
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2023 22:00
|
|
|
MikeC posted:but nothing of real concern. Except for the people that could be affected by this “out of control balloon” that could drop on them. Disregarding the other poo poo you don’t let objects of this size roam around out of your control.
|
|
#
?
Feb 10, 2023 23:48
|
|
|
MarcusSA posted:Except for the people that could be affected by this “out of control balloon” that could drop on them. I am operating under the assumption that the Chinese position that this balloon was "out of control" is a line of bullshit and that the course it took was deliberate. I see very little reason to believe otherwise when the preliminaries state that it has electronic scanning equipment.
|
|
#
?
Feb 11, 2023 05:06
|
|
|
An observation obtained by multiplying two numbers together: https://twitter.com/liqian_ren/status/1624213446723047425 source: https://news.sina.com.cn/c/2023-02-09/doc-imyfawes3049664.shtml
|
|
#
?
Feb 11, 2023 05:21
|
|
|
MikeC posted:I am operating under the assumption that the Chinese position that this balloon was "out of control" is a line of bullshit and that the course it took was deliberate. I see very little reason to believe otherwise when the preliminaries state that it has electronic scanning equipment. The interesting part of this being that while these devices were (almost certainly) deliberately in other nations' airspaces, this one must have been defective in some way and drifted down into visual range, creating a bit of an international incident.
|
|
#
?
Feb 11, 2023 09:25
|
|
|
Kavros posted:The interesting part of this being that while these devices were (almost certainly) deliberately in other nations' airspaces, this one must have been defective in some way and drifted down into visual range, creating a bit of an international incident. Numerous previous sightings of unidentified balloons previously as already been discussed. They were visible but simply unidentified and no one bothered to take a closer look. So one of two things are true. Either they are launching so many that a low error rate results in multiple sightings over the past two years or their normal operating altitudes mean they are visible from the ground. I have read nothing to indicate that this particular one was somehow malfunctioning (well unless you believe the Chinese).
|
|
#
?
Feb 11, 2023 18:51
|
|
|
Well the thing with previous Chinese balloons was that NORAD was picking them up but it was being filtered out because it didn't look like an aircraft or ICBM or whatever. NORAD and other radar systems pick up an incredible amount of info but then have software on top of them that is tunable to filter out what you don't want to see because otherwise it is useless there is so much data. So at some point the DOD caught on to the fact China sent balloons (I think it was before the one last week but not sure) and then went back in the data and saw it had been happening for a while. That was why there was confusion saying it happened during the Trump administration too but the Trump Administration wasn't aware. Obviously after last week someone said "well change the goddamn filters" and within a week we've picked up a strange object entering Alaska airspace and shot it down. It's also why I hope the new UAP office has been given access to the raw NORAD data from the past decade or whatever and allowed to apply their own filters and see what pops up and do some studies.
|
|
#
?
Feb 11, 2023 19:25
|
|
|
Another object was shot down today. This time it was over Canadian airspace. https://twitter.com/justintrudeau/status/1624527579116871681?s=46&t=rBGySQYOe48gxrQWppuyHw
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2023 01:06
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/stratoballoon/status/1624442419780497412 I love OSINT—I'm sure you can also get higher resolutions too
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2023 02:35
|
|
|
For the long-term macro types, an interesting thread: https://twitter.com/ZhangTaisu/status/1623679177634217986 I am not in a position to give any educated comment, so it's just interesting. In other news, the global skeet shoot continues apace: https://twitter.com/Byron_Wan/status/1624725453914390529 https://twitter.com/whyyoutouzhele/status/1624757915096580101
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2023 16:58
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/birdyword/status/1624675086228922368 Interesting shifts in ASEAN on China vs US. Singapore is notable given the recent influx of Chinese wealth and immigrants
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2023 23:21
|
|
|
ronya posted:For the long-term macro types, an interesting thread: Is there any update to this? It’s been about 12 hours or so. I’m not expecting much though but in the context of the US and NORAD shooting stuff out of the sky lately it’s mildly interesting.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2023 23:41
|
|
|
it hit Global Times: https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1624734766057803776 so presumably there will be some public announcement when it does happen https://twitter.com/HidenOta/status/1624774145220423680
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2023 02:27
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/Lingling_Wei/status/1624833735794335750quote:After the Feb. 1 meeting in Washington, a day before the Biden administration went public about the Chinese balloon, senior officials at the Foreign Ministry in Beijing raced to try to verify what the State Department had told Chinese diplomats, according to Chinese officials with knowledge of the matter. quote:Political fallout from the balloon incident is dashing expectations for a Biden-Xi summit soon. Some Chinese officials had hoped that Mr. Blinken’s planned visit could pave the way for a leaders’ summit even before an annual meeting of Asia-Pacific leaders in San Francisco in November.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2023 03:44
|
|
|
Given Chinese diplomatic practices I’d assume the or UFO is a US surveillance craft.
|
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2023 03:47
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1624752464221310978 In the annals of frankness: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202302/1285281.shtml quote:Analysts said that Raisi's first visit to China since taking office in 2021 will further implement the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Iran, and shows the Raisi administration's unswerving determination to promote the "Look to the East" policy. straying a bit from the whole-process people's democracy messaging there, GT
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2023 08:39
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/ftchina/status/1625090992087900160 https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dip...llegally-chinas https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-us-flew-more-than-10-high-altitude-balloons-over-chinese-airspace-2023-02-13/ (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2023 13:08
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/cgmeifangzhang/status/1624929028992864259 Classy. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2023 14:50
|
|
|
So shamefully predictable. If it was any other country at any other time I would believe it. With China's idiotic need to save face at every opportunity or lash out in response, not a single soul will believe it and it continues what honestly is a transparently amateurish approach to crisis resolution. Deny, deny, deny. Then when it is well past obvious its yours, make absurd lies about it and double down repeatedly. Finally when the it is well past the point when the lie is even remotely plausible, lash out with fake accusations to imply hypocrisy. This pattern repeats itself almost without fail everytime their hands get caught in the cookie jar. For a country that so desperately wants to be taken seriously and respectes as a nascent great power, they have clowns running their messaging. The proper response for a country that so desperately desires respect is to outright say that they took the cookies, just like like everyone else does in their own way and the politely tell them to take a hike if they don't like it. Reminds me of when Meng was held on extradition and the Chinese proceed to kidnap 2 Canadians on trumped up spy charges and then proceeds to declare that Canada is a dangerous place to visit thanks to arbitrary detention laws.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2023 15:30
|
|
|
It probably helped that the quake's epicenter was literally on the other side of the country.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2023 16:00
|
|
|
Thorn Wishes Talon posted:It probably helped that the quake's epicenter was literally on the other side of the country. Also it wasn't built by chinese company. https://twitter.com/leventkemaI/status/1625056548035694592?t=g8htQcVRIuRkyG8r712VHQ&s=19
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2023 16:59
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/hofunghung/status/1625161181383241728 e.g. https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/1621515903715381248 https://twitter.com/polijunkie_aus/status/1621630334331916288 on the whole, MFA not covering itself in glory
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2023 17:01
|
|
|
MikeC posted:So shamefully predictable. If it was any other country at any other time I would believe it. With China's idiotic need to save face at every opportunity or lash out in response, not a single soul will believe it and it continues what honestly is a transparently amateurish approach to crisis resolution. What struck me is that they could have made it somewhat believable by talking about American drones, but they had to overdo the parallelism by making it American balloons.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2023 18:28
|
|
|
Yeah if they would have said drones everyone would have been like “ok yeah sure why not “ but saying balloons is just laughable at this point.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2023 18:54
|
|
|
There used to be a guy, a lecherous admirer of 90's girls on the internet, who we could count on for an opinion in fraught political situations like this. What was his name again?
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2023 19:30
|
|
|
I'm not Rene Chang so I cannot comment
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2023 19:46
|
|
|
To be fair, he doesn't claim it was spy balloons. He might just be trying to invoke an image of a reasonable and level-headed Chinese government not overreacting over a couple US weather balloons that were blown off course.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2023 19:46
|
|
|
duodenum posted:There used to be a guy, a lecherous admirer of 90's girls on the internet, who we could count on for an opinion in fraught political situations like this. What was his name again? Richard Kyanka?
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2023 19:49
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 04:29 |
|
|
I bet they're counting the South China Sea as China's airspace.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2023 19:50
|
|
