[Ukraine] EU: Nice minister, shame if something were to happen...

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Regarde Aduck: Oct 19, 2012; c l o u d k i t t e n; Grimey Drawer

CODChimera posted:

he's gonna declare war and nuke something

Poland

# ? Feb 16, 2023 00:44

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# ? May 25, 2024 18:01

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Granted, I would say a lot really hasn't changed in historiography, it is just that certain writers (I wouldn't call Applebaum a historian) have been immensely signal boosted by the media while more rigorous work has been pushed in the background. So you have conferences that are still more or less sane but what the public is being fed is moving farther and farther away.

I mean even Kotkin as anti-communist as he is he now pretty much a moderate because he at least uses some actual sources in his work.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 00:48

AnimeIsTrash: Jun 30, 2018

Al-Saqr posted:

i refuse to believe this is real no way.

why is it so hard to believe? the us has exported jihadis before

# ? Feb 16, 2023 00:51

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

Delta-Wye posted:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1625901567361658881
any guesses on the big russian PR push around the 21st? im evenly split between declaring war and declaring mission accomplished.

Yeah that supply box toilet fort is getting an official opening day cutting the ribbon ceremony. Very big day.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 00:53

Frosted Flake: Sep 13, 2011; Semper Shitpost Ubique

Ardennes posted:

Granted, I would say a lot really hasn't changed in historiography, it is just that certain writers (I wouldn't call Applebaum a historian) have been immensely signal boosted by the media while more rigorous work has been pushed in the background. So you have conferences that are still more or less sane but what the public is being fed is moving farther and farther away.

I mean even Kotkin as anti-communist as he is he now pretty much a moderate because he at least uses some actual sources in his work.

True, you�re right. It was a team at uOttawa that busted Polish wikipedia editors and there has been some eye opening work on the �Holocaust by Bullets� lately.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 00:56

CODChimera: Jan 29, 2009

mila kunis posted:

wow what a humiliation

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/15/russian-army-has-lost-up-to-half-of-key-battle-tanks-analysts-estimate-ukraine

Russia�s army is estimated to have lost nearly 40% of its prewar fleet of tanks after nine months of fighting in Ukraine, according to a count by the specialist thinktank the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS).

�Russia�s actions over the past year have raised questions not only over the competence of its military and senior military leadership, but also over command cohesion,� he said, launching the IISS�s annual Military Balance audit of the world�s armed forces.

Its headline count is that Russia�s number of tanks in its army have reduced by 38% from 2,927 to 1,800, while there have been particularly heavy losses of its workhorse T-72B3, an upgrade first delivered to its army in 2013.

[...]

Russian overoptimism meant that it suffered heavy tank losses at the beginning of the war, particularly in the abortive attack on Kyiv, where large numbers of tanks and armoured vehicles moving in a convoy were destroyed on roads north of the capital. Many others were captured or towed off by tractors as the assault failed.

[...]

Ukraine, however, has seen its tank count go up to 953 from 858 because it has partly offset its own losses by capturing an estimated 500 from Russia, of which it has �pressed a fair amount into service�, according to the IISS analyst Henry Boyd.

its stuff like this that makes people believe that the leopards/challengers/abrams are going to be literally invincible

# ? Feb 16, 2023 00:57

sum: Nov 15, 2010

I don't think anyone posted this yet but there's some real stark admissions
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/13/us-ukraine-war-critical-moment/

Biden Administration expects military aid for Ukraine will be severely curtailed in the coming months. They frame it as due to being political reasons but I think it has as much to do with running out of poo poo to send:

quote:

U.S. warns Ukraine it faces a pivotal moment in war
As first anniversary nears, White House fears flow of arms may be harder to come by

As the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine nears, US officials are telling Ukrainian leaders they face a critical moment to change the trajectory of the war, raising the pressure on Kyiv to make significant gains on the battlefield while weapons and aid from the United States and its allies are surging.

Despite promises to back Ukraine �as long as it takes,� Biden officials say recent aid packages from Congress and America's allies represent Kyiv's best chance to decisively change the course of the war. Many conservatives in the Republican-led House have vowed to pull back support, and Europe's long-term appetite for funding the war effort remains unclear.

Several officials noted the strong bipartisan support that has accompanied every Ukraine package, adding that Congress gave the White House more than it asked for, but they acknowledged that was under a Democratic-led House and Senate.

�We will continue to try to impress upon them that we can't do anything and everything forever,� said one senior administration official, referring to Ukraine's leaders. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters, added that it was the administration's �very strong view� that it will be hard to keep getting the same level of security and economic assistance from Congress.

�'As long as it takes' pertains to the amount of conflict,� the official added. �It doesn't pertain to the amount of assistance.�

A senior administration official said the Biden administration will continue to request as much funding as it believes Ukraine needs � as it has done throughout the war � but that there are no guarantees Congress will approve those requests. Republicans took control of the House in January and while many key lawmakers have expressed support for continued funding, the party must also contend with a hard-right flank that has expressed skepticism or opposition to more money for the war.

I can't tell if this is civilian leaders being confused about military affairs or just them intentionally lying. Why would Russia and Ukraine both be in position to launch an offensive at the same time? How are 100 export model MBTs going to "significantly shiftthe balance of power"? Whatever

quote:

The war in recent months has become a slow grind in eastern Ukraine, with neither side gaining the upper hand. Biden officials believe the critical juncture will come this spring, when Russia is expected to launch an offensive and Ukraine mounts a counteroffensive in an effort to reclaim lost territory.

...

In late January, Biden�s Cabinet came up with a plan for the United States to announce the provision of M1 Abrams tanks, which would placate Germany even though the U.S. tanks would not arrive for several months at the earliest. The following the day, Biden gave the go-ahead.

Now, as the United States prepares to send 31 of the premier tanks in the medium term, Europe is quickly assembling two Leopard tank battalions in the near term � the equivalent of at least 70 tanks � in a move that could significantly shift the balance of power on the battlefield.

And here's a direct contradiction of the thesis of the preceding paragraphs. Ukraine has been burning up its reserves defending Bakhmut Verdun-style. Also, the assertion that Bakhmut is more symbolically important in Ukraine than it is in the West.

quote:

Yet the public show of unity belies underlying tensions over how Ukraine should focus its resources in the coming months.

The frank discussions in Kyiv last month reflected an effort by the Biden administration to bring Ukraine�s goals in line with what the West can sustain as the war approaches its one-year mark. Getting Ukraine on the same page has not always been easy, according to people familiar with the discussions, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe private talks.

For months, Ukraine has expended significant resources and troops defending Bakhmut in the eastern Donbas region. American military analysts and planners have argued that it is unrealistic to simultaneously defend Bakhmut and launch a spring counteroffensive to retake what the United States views as more critical territory.

Zelensky, however, attaches symbolic importance to Bakhmut, two senior administration officials said, and believes it would be a blow to Ukrainian morale to lose the city. On Friday, Zelensky said his country�s forces would �fight as long as we can� to hold the embattled city that Russia is on the brink of capturing.

While U.S. officials said they respect that Zelensky knows how best to rally his country, they have expressed concerns that if Ukraine keeps fighting everywhere Russia sends troops, it will work to Moscow�s advantage. Instead, they have urged Ukraine to prioritize the timing and execution of the spring counteroffensive, particularly as the United States and Europe train Ukrainian fighters on some of the more complex weaponry making its way to the battlefield.

�Generally, our view is they should take enough time that they can benefit from what we�ve provided in material and training,� a senior administration official said. If Russia takes Bakhmut, the official said, it �will not result in any significant strategic shift in the battlefield. Russians will try to claim it as such, [but] it�s a dot on the map for which they have expended an extraordinary amount of blood and treasure.�

Finally, dozens of paragraphs down, a bombshell: the US knows Ukraine can't restore its 2014 borders and is expecting them to sit down with Russia once the aid runs out soon.

quote:

Beyond Bakhmut, Zelensky has repeatedly rallied his country behind a military campaign to retake all of Russian-occupied Ukraine, including Crimea, the peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014.

Last month, Zelensky�s top aide, Andriy Yermak, reiterated that victory against Russia means restoring Ukraine�s internationally recognized borders, �including Donbas and Crimea.� Anything less is �absolutely unacceptable,� he said at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

U.S. intelligence officials have concluded, however, that retaking the heavily fortified peninsula is beyond the capability of Ukraine�s army right now, according to officials familiar with the matter, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive issues. That sobering assessment has been reiterated to multiple committees on Capitol Hill over the last several weeks.

That discrepancy between aims and capabilities has raised concerns in Europe that the Ukraine conflict will persist indefinitely, overburdening the West as it grapples with other challenges including stubbornly high inflation and unstable energy prices.

Against that backdrop, Biden�s aides say they are pursuing the best course of action: empowering Ukraine to retake as much territory as possible in coming months before sitting down with Putin at the negotiating table.

That effort will benefit from an influx of Patriot missiles, HIMARS launchers and an array of armored vehicles. Optimists see a path for Ukraine to stave off further Russian incursions in the east, retake territory in the south and force Russia to negotiate an end to the war by year�s end.

But skeptics worry that time is not on Ukraine�s side as Russia throws hundreds of thousands of new troops onto the battlefield, including convicts, in advance of the expected spring offensive.

Western and Ukrainian intelligence officials estimate that Russia currently has over 300,000 forces in Ukraine, up from 150,000 initially, with plans to add hundreds of thousands more. The Russian campaign in the spring could see forces pouring over the Belarusian border and cutting off supply lines in western Ukraine that Kyiv has used to bolster its military.

Even seasoned military experts see a wide range of possible outcomes in coming months, underscoring how tenuous the situation is.

�It�s not clear how this ends. Will it end with a negotiated settlement? Will it just be protracted and we�ll see some version of the frozen conflicts we see elsewhere?� said Seth Jones, director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

�You have sufficient support now and the Ukrainians are willing to fight, so there�s strong logic to getting Ukraine as much as you can,� Jones said. �How long you can continue to do that for is an open question.�

"Before the grass-dogs are set forth at the sacrifice, they are deposited in a box or basket, and wrapt up with elegantly embroidered cloths, while the representative of the dead and the officer of prayer prepare themselves by fasting to present them. After they have been set forth, however, passers-by trample on their heads and backs, and the grass-cutters take and burn them in cooking. That is all they are good for."

sum has issued a correction as of 01:02 on Feb 16, 2023

# ? Feb 16, 2023 00:59

euphronius: Feb 18, 2009

Against that backdrop, Biden�s aides say they are pursuing the best course of action: empowering Ukraine to retake as much territory as possible in coming months before sitting down with Putin at the negotiating table.

finally

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:01

euphronius: Feb 18, 2009

there is no way Ukraine takes back significant territory afaict

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:03

Majorian: Jul 1, 2009

euphronius posted:

Against that backdrop, Biden�s aides say they are pursuing the best course of action: empowering Ukraine to retake as much territory as possible in coming months before sitting down with Putin at the negotiating table.

finally

Lol, as opposed to bleeding Russia dry?

But I�ve been repeatedly assured that that was not the US� objective!

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:03

BadOptics: Sep 11, 2012

Can't wait to see people post about the "tankie" Washington Post.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:03

ItohRespectArmy: Sep 11, 2019; Cutest In The World, Six Time DDT Ironheavymetalweight champion, Two Time International Princess champion, winner of two tournaments, a Princess Tag Team champion, And a pretty good singer too!
"When I was an idol, I felt nothing every day but now that I'm a pro wrestler I'm in pain constantly!"

i thought zelenskyy had a law he signed where he wasnt allowed to negotiate peace with russia until they retook crimea

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:04

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

euphronius posted:

Against that backdrop, Biden�s aides say they are pursuing the best course of action: empowering Ukraine to retake as much territory as possible in coming months before sitting down with Putin at the negotiating table.

finally

Put the nukes away boys. We can look forward to carving up the roast instead.

Russia and the greater Polish Commonwealth are going to eat well.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:04

Atrocious Joe: Sep 2, 2011

euphronius posted:

this is def the first stage of the coming USA China war

The Long US War against Eurasia.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:08

fits my needs: Jan 1, 2011; Grimey Drawer

https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1625870993045524481?s=20

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:11

Regarde Aduck: Oct 19, 2012; c l o u d k i t t e n; Grimey Drawer

but wait, i thought Russia was totally genociding everyone which means you can't negotiate

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:13

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

ItohRespectArmy posted:

i thought zelenskyy had a law he signed where he wasnt allowed to negotiate peace with russia until they retook crimea

Ah laws. Funny old things. For show mostly if you're in power.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:13

Regarde Aduck: Oct 19, 2012; c l o u d k i t t e n; Grimey Drawer

why would genocidal chaotic evil Russia sit down and talk anyway? Surely their only aim is burning the cities of man and elf

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:14

Majorian: Jul 1, 2009

Regarde Aduck posted:

but wait, i thought Russia was totally genociding everyone which means you can't negotiate

I don�t know if there was a law, I think he just says it a lot.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:16

Endman: May 18, 2010; That is not dead which can eternal lie, And with strange aeons even anime may die

Sounds like the White House is beginning operation �let �em down easy�

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:23

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Majorian posted:

I don�t know if there was a law, I think he just says it a lot.

He signed a decree, obviously he could go back on it but I think some of his allies would have an issue with that.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:24

CODChimera: Jan 29, 2009

western news on the war really does seem to be getting significantly more muddled

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:25

euphronius: Feb 18, 2009

the implication was the USA would sit down with Putin

I don�t think anyone cares about Zelensky

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:25

Lostconfused: Oct 1, 2008

fits my needs posted:

https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1625870993045524481?s=20

poo poo like this pisses me off the most. less so when it's presented by soulless ghouls that don't believe it, because they don't believe in anything at all.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:28

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

euphronius posted:

the implication was the USA would sit down with Putin

I don�t think anyone cares about Zelensky

Putin probably (rightly) doesn't trust the USA to be worth time of day and might just say "line on map keep out, bye".

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:33

yellowcar: Feb 14, 2010

i'm remembering that "it would behoove ukraine to start re-taking territory" line from some UK intelligence official back in like july or august

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:34

Majorian: Jul 1, 2009

euphronius posted:

the implication was the USA would sit down with Putin

I don�t think anyone cares about Zelensky

Lol I remember saying basically this verbatim in another place almost a year ago to the day and getting a LOT of pushback.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:35

Lostconfused: Oct 1, 2008

yellowcar posted:

i'm remembering that "it would behoove ukraine to start re-taking territory" line from some UK intelligence official back in like july or august

Yeah, that one worked out well for them though as Russians decided to retreat from Kherson.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:35

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

sum posted:

I can't tell if this is civilian leaders being confused about military affairs or just them intentionally lying. Why would Russia and Ukraine both be in position to launch an offensive at the same time? How are 100 export model MBTs going to "significantly shiftthe balance of power"? Whatever

Every western war understander got their mind broken after obsessively following imperial colonial misadventures so handfuls of tanks become war changing because their understanding of war is masses of men with aks and toyotas at best going at each other with occasional western troops winning decisively. Thus, handfuls of tanks are war changing in that context.

The idea of even repairing tanks on a systematic basis is mind blowing nevermind running the tanks factories on 24/7 shifts.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:37

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

Danann posted:

Every western war understander got their mind broken after obsessively following imperial colonial misadventures so handfuls of tanks become war changing because their understanding of war is masses of men with aks and toyotas at best going at each other with occasional western troops winning decisively. Thus, handfuls of tanks are war changing in that context.

The idea of even repairing tanks on a systematic basis is mind blowing nevermind running the tanks factories on 24/7 shifts.

Their understanding is 12 v 12 war thunder videos on YouTube. They don't even play.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:45

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

DancingShade posted:

Their understanding is 12 v 12 war thunder videos on YouTube. They don't even play.

i can lay waste to kiev with a single Zhukovsky's I-153-M62 so iunno what you're talking about

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:46

CODChimera: Jan 29, 2009

DancingShade posted:

Their understanding is 12 v 12 war thunder videos on YouTube. They don't even play.

is war thunder any good?

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:57

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

CODChimera posted:

is war thunder any good?

i have maybe 1500 hours in it since 2014 and haven't earned a jet yet, which i don't care about. if you like biplanes up through ww2 planes it's loving fantastic but i like the tanks and boats as well

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:59

crepeface: Nov 5, 2004; r*p*f*c*

lol how do people keep falling for these guys

quote:

The Ukrainian people in the conflict with Russia are �doing dirty work� that the US would not want to do, former US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper told the Russian pranksters Vladimir Kuznetsov (Vovan) and Alexey Stolyarov (Lexus).

The pranksters called Esper on behalf of former Ukrainian President Petr Poroshenko and asked the former Pentagon chief for his opinion on US involvement in the conflict in Ukraine. "The Ukrainian people are doing the dirty work of what we never wanted to do here in the United States, which is why we should continue to support you [Ukraine] with everything we can, whether it's munitions or arms or intelligence," Esper said.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezITKdCapaY

# ? Feb 16, 2023 01:59

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

CODChimera posted:

is war thunder any good?

Sure. I prefer low tier matches though. I like my creaky rusting tanks.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 02:01

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

DancingShade posted:

Sure. I prefer low tier matches though. I like my creaky rusting tanks.

yeah the game gets insanely tryhard around 4.0, i can't be bothered

# ? Feb 16, 2023 02:01

Some Guy TT: Aug 30, 2011

https://twitter.com/nickreeves9876/status/1625951292722974729

never forget the enemies within

# ? Feb 16, 2023 02:04

evilmiera: Dec 14, 2009; Status: Ravenously Rambunctious

Cromulent_Chill posted:

Are you asking why Russia wants to know where the UA AA, which moves around, is located? You can't figure out why that's important to them?

I'm asking why they're doing it now rather than several months back. I'm not denying it's a useful strategy, but it seems like they could have used it to diminish Ukraine's effective defense ages ago. Did they not have them then?

# ? Feb 16, 2023 02:06

Lostconfused: Oct 1, 2008

crepeface posted:

lol how do people keep falling for these guys

That's what I would like to know.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 02:08

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# ? May 25, 2024 18:01

Some Guy TT: Aug 30, 2011

https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1625984506946809872

atacms are my favorite wonder weapon because they remind me of steakums

# ? Feb 16, 2023 02:08

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Ukraine] EU: Nice minister, shame if something were to happen...

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