War in Ukraine: thread feedback session open unttil Saturday (i'll regret this)

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Antigravitas: Dec 8, 2019; Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

Charlz Guybon posted:

Hasn't Poland stopped covering Hungary due to their different view of the war?

Not at all. Ideologically they are very close. To Duda, LGBT are "not people, it's an ideology", and you'll find that Orban and Putin agree. They are all-in on Culture War narratives.

For all the vitriol coming out of Poland, PiS knows full well that once they stop supporting Orban and Hungary loses voting rights, their Christofascist project is next on the agenda.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 14:08

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# ? May 25, 2024 15:29

MikeC: Jul 19, 2004; BITCH ASS NARC

DarkCrawler posted:

Russia's military would be no better without the arming and training of Ukraine done by U.S. AND NATO. Arguably without the recent experiences it would be far worse. And now it would have Ukraine to occupy and fight a brutal guerilla war in a country the size of Afghanistan and Iraq combined. And it is going to invade the Baltics at the same time?

If EU was completely without NATO which had dissolved after Cold War ended or something, the Baltics would already be more militarized, probably in a conscription model. EU would have a military command structure of its own as well, at minimum. EU combined has exponentially more modern military hardware, trained soldiers, industrial base and oh, nuclear weapons in comparison to Ukraine.

How would the Baltics be next, given all those facts? gently caress Poland, Finland would have hosed up the Russian military that invaded Ukraine. Poland would have wiped it off the map. Europe would have been in Moscow inside two weeks.

I will point out that none of what you posted are "facts" and are instead opinions on what might have happened froma conterfactual situation. Given the outsized effect of US intelligence steering Ukranian military planning and maneuvers, the fact that the US supplies the vast majority of military aid to Ukraine, and the several think tank reports that outline just how important US military assets like HIMRAS are to the Ukrainians it would suggest that Yng's assessment is reasonable (without trying to assess what happens after the fall of Kyiv like insurgencies).

The rest of the post is mainly filled with suppositions on what ifs that are impossible to verify, like how and in what manner a non NATO Baltic looks like politically and militarily to Poland's military capabilities (I suspect they lack the sheer numbers to cover ground from Belarus to Moscow).

# ? Feb 16, 2023 14:21

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

According to Bloomberg, Austin has said that the U.S. wants Sweden and Finland both in NATO by July. That said, going by Stoltenberg and motions from Turkish officials, Finland may very well see an individual ratification from Turkey already, leaving then just the Swedish membership for later. We have a few Finnish goons here � what are the local conversations like about joining NATO separately from Sweden?

# ? Feb 16, 2023 15:05

Rappaport: Oct 2, 2013

cinci zoo sniper posted:

According to Bloomberg, Austin has said that the U.S. wants Sweden and Finland both in NATO by July. That said, going by Stoltenberg and motions from Turkish officials, Finland may very well see an individual ratification from Turkey already, leaving then just the Swedish membership for later. We have a few Finnish goons here � what are the local conversations like about joining NATO separately from Sweden?

Finland has had a bit of a derail in the public conversation with a political researcher, who has an unfortunate following in the yellow press, making noises about NATO and us joining separately from Sweden. That said, our parliament seems (a link in Finnish, sorry) determined to vote on joining NATO before our parliamentary elections this spring.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 15:12

Antigravitas: Dec 8, 2019; Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

quote:

Western weapons of the Ukrainian armed forces are to be repaired in the Slovakian maintenance centre in Michalovce. The government in Bratislava, however, believes that customs duties should be paid for imports from Ukraine. There is hope for a solution to the dispute, however.

According to a media report, a customs dispute with Slovakia has for weeks been causing considerable delays in the repair of rocket launchers and tank howitzers supplied to Ukraine and used in the war against Russia. As the "S�ddeutsche Zeitung" reports, several MARS missile launchers were therefore parked for weeks at the Ukrainian-Slovakian border and finally had to be transported to Germany via Poland. According to the report, the diversions of more than 2000 kilometres meant that Ukraine missed them for longer than planned.

According to the report, Slovakia interprets the European customs regulations in such a way that customs duty must be paid when importing from the non-EU country of Ukraine, repairing in the EU country of Slovakia and returning to Ukraine, as the repair and new parts constitute processing. Therefore, high sums of money would be involved, as Gepard anti-aircraft, Marder infantry fighting vehicles and Leopard battle tanks delivered from Germany are also to be serviced in the maintenance centre in Michalovce, which is operated by the arms company KNDS but financed by the federal government.

According to the S�ddeutsche Zeitung, however, there is now hope for a solution after a discussion between Federal Defence Minister Boris Pistorius and his Slovakian counterpart: according to the information, a Slovakian arms company is to be called in to handle the transport of the weapons and take care of the customs formalities. However, KNDS and the company Kon�trukta would still have to sign a contract.

This is to establish the customs exemptions for this special case in times of war, it is said, citing government circles. The establishment of the maintenance centre in Michalovce, 35 kilometres from the Ukrainian border, had still been announced by Pistorius' predecessor Christine Lambrecht. "We have reached an agreement and work can start immediately so that all the equipment that was delivered can be repaired," Lambrecht said hopefully in mid-November.

N-TV reporting on a S�ddeutsche article that is paywalled (and I don't pay for SZ :v:

), translation via deepl as usual and proofread/corrected by me.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 15:18

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

This Lambrecht person appears to be responsible for an ever broadening scope of haphazardly done work. :thunk:

That said lmao, nice fleecing attempt by Slovakia to try to tax these repairs. Hopefully this gets publicised far enough for them to take some flak for grounding MARS launchers for weeks, de facto.

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 15:54 on Feb 16, 2023

# ? Feb 16, 2023 15:24

Ynglaur: Oct 9, 2013; The Malta Conference, anyone?

cinci zoo sniper posted:

This Lambrecht person appears to be responsible for an ever broadening scope of haphazardly done work. That said lmao, nice fleecing attempt by Slovakia to try to tax these repairs. Hopefully this gets publicised far enough for them to take some flak for ground MARS launchers for weeks, de facto.

Sometimes it's amazing that capitalist countries can wage war at all.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 15:27

Moon Slayer: Jun 19, 2007

Washington Post article on the Battle of Bakhmut. Bolding mine, just what I find personally interesting.

quote:

As Russians inch forward near Bakhmut, Ukrainians dig fallback defenses
By Steve Hendrix and Serhii Korolchuk
February 16, 2023 at 1:43 a.m. EST

DONETSK REGION, Ukraine � The closest Ukrainian artillery position to the raging battle for Bakhmut is tucked into a leafless tree line about 13,000 feet from the enemy. The fighters here have been hanging on for weeks, lobbing 122mm shells at the Russians straining to encircle the city. If the Russians push even a bit closer, the Ukrainians will have to move their guns back simply to keep from firing over the enemy�s heads, the platoon leader said Tuesday.

�If they get any closer our guns are not effective,� said the leader, Oleksander, as a crossfire of Ukrainian howitzers and Russian rockets whistled overhead. His own mobile artillery piece boomed into the snowfall, shaking flakes onto the log-covered bunker where his troops have been living since December, as smoke drifted from the spent shell they use as a chimney.

�Today we are still holding them, but it is very dynamic,� said Oleksander, an officer in the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade whom The Washington Post is identifying only by his first name to protect his safety. �It can change in a day.�

But even if the Russians move forward, they will not get far, he said. Combat earthmovers were digging new trench lines on a ridge just a few hundred yards farther west.

All around this front line in flux, Ukrainians are preparing for the possibility that Russia will continue its creeping advance. This is a war of feet, not miles � and nowhere is that more apparent than in the wintry countryside outside Bakhmut, which has become the epicenter of Russia�s push to regain momentum in its year-old invasion.

Any Ukrainian fallback is likely to be limited, commanders in the region say. Even if Ukrainian troops give up on their ferocious defense of Bakhmut � a fight that has assumed more symbolic than strategic value, according to military experts � Russia lacks the trained troops and weaponry to rush headlong into the wider Donetsk region.

Rather, the Russians are likely to nudge the Ukrainians back to entrenched positions they are readying around nearby communities, including Chasiv Yar, Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka, where the slugfest for territory will continue.

It has happened before. Russian forces last summer took the nearby city of Lysychansk, just over the border in the Luhansk region, after battering it for weeks, and got as far as Lyman 36 miles west, in Donetsk. But they lost Lyman in Ukraine�s counteroffensive last fall. Bakhmut, the next major target in Moscow�s plan to conquer all of southeastern Ukraine, is 37 miles west of Lysychansk and still not firmly in Russia�s grip after months of fighting.

The soldiers here expect the same grinding dynamic to continue, with Russia throwing mostly untrained conscripts at the new Ukrainian defensive positions as they have in the bloody streets of Bakhmut.

�They send in 20 people at a time and we stop them,� said Rostyslav, the commander of two artillery positions in the area. �Then the more professional Wagner troops follow,� he said, referring to the mercenaries that have led many of the attacks.

Behind him, two of his Soviet-era 2S1 Gvozdika guns (the name means �carnation�) trundled along a ridge, always in pairs in case one breaks down and needs a tow from the other. The guns were born long before most of the men who operate them � �20 years before,� said Rostyslav, who is 24.

The 128th were brought in from Zaporizhzhia in December to help plug the line in Bakhmut because their 70 percent accuracy rate ranks them as some of deadliest artillery fighters in Ukraine.

The units are training their fire on the lines around Bakhmut and the key M03 highway that is a major route in the area. The 128th would provide cover for any fallbacks along the road, an eventuality the fighters do not like to talk about. They have begun to conserve their shells as they wait for new ammunition deliveries.

�They sent us because we are the best,� said a sergeant known by his radio call sign of �Al-Kut.� �We can hold them, but we need ammunition and weapons.�

The fight for Bakhmut has become a Ukrainian rallying cry and a Russian imperative as each side girds for expected major offensives to kick off the second year of war.

Moscow is desperate for a symbolic victory to reverse months of humiliating defeats during Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson. After battering Bakhmut frontally for months, Russian troops have picked off small villages to the north in an attempt to surround the city.

Wagner fighters took the nearby salt mining town of Soledar in January, causing the 128th �to make a small shift to the side,� Rostyslav acknowledged.

Ukrainians, meanwhile, are hailing their fighters� scrappy defense of Bakhmut as another modern Thermopylae, akin to the holdouts who refused to give up the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol for weeks before the Russians took the city in May.

The latest fight has inspired memes, a cheer (�Bakhmut holds!�) and a viral pop anthem (�Bakhmut fortress; all our prayers are here.�) President Volodymyr Zelensky, who made a surprise visit in December, has pledged Bahkmut will stand.

Fervor notwithstanding, soldiers and civilians up and down the line are ready for the front to shift again.

At a field hospital west of the city, doctors said they have already prepared their contingency plans for moving, even as they deal with a surge in causalities from the fighting in Bakhmut.

�His leg is torn off,� an orderly shouted as soldiers banged a gurney through the front door of what used to be a village clinic.

�In here,� said a doctor, Oleg Tokarchyk, backing into the small surgical suite.

As the team of doctors and nurses rushed to stabilize the massive shrapnel wound that had splintered the femur and destroyed most of the flesh, another wounded soldier was being treated for shoulder wounds.

�We were just pulling out when they hit us,� said the fighter, Oleksi, 40, of an artillery strike just outside of Bakhmut.

He tapped out a text to his parents: �Everything is good here. It was snowing, but it stopped.�

Many of those posted in this hottest of hot zones lie to their families. Tokarchyk, a pediatric orthopedist in civilian life, tells his wife he is working at a hospital far from the front.

�If it gets any more dangerous here, we will have to move out,� he said.

They have already identified a location a bit farther back, one with good road access. It will take two or three days to set up the new site.

Along the same road, some of the big commercial farm operations are making their own moves. Siversk Agro packed up its grain processing equipment on Sunday, according to a lone worker who was guarding the now empty warehouse.

And closer to the advancing front, four massive harvesting combines pulled slowly away from the machinery yard of Bakhmut Agro as the sound of shelling rumbled up the rolling hillsides. An unexploded rocket was embedded amid the stalks of a spent sunflower field nearby.

The company, which farms more than 14,000 acres of corn, wheat and sunflowers, would not comment on what made it leave the area now, or its plans for the future. �We have been getting the equipment out but our business is the land,� said an employee who would not give her name.

Marko Fedak, a priest who has endured the windows of his church being blown out and the evacuation of all but five of his regular churchgoers from his village of Zvanivka, is finally making his own escape, at least for now.

�I hope to be back to give an Easter mass here,� said Fedak, who was picking up pieces of wood that had been the Tenth Station of the Cross before it was blasted by a shell the day before. �If it is still not safe here, I have already prepared my paperwork to become an Army chaplain,� he said.

Residents here know the front is fluid. Gains by either side may not last. For months, Fedak was blocked by Russians from driving north, but that route opened after Ukraine retook some areas in October.

Kostiantynivka, one of the cities coming under greater shelling as the Russians inch westward, lost one of its three water supply lines when Russia took territory near Bila Hora. But it regained one coming from the north after the Ukrainian army liberated areas above Sloviansk.

This ebb and flow makes it a tough call for citizens who are cowering under the current pitch of shelling, but hope for things to improve. �They are worried what the Russians would do to them but also afraid to leave their homes behind,� Fedak said of one family in his parish.

Now may be the time to decide. The Russians are less than a mile from their house, he said, and slowly getting closer.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 16:18

DarkCrawler: Apr 6, 2009; by vyelkin

MikeC posted:

I will point out that none of what you posted are "facts" and are instead opinions on what might have happened froma conterfactual situation. Given the outsized effect of US intelligence steering Ukranian military planning and maneuvers, the fact that the US supplies the vast majority of military aid to Ukraine, and the several think tank reports that outline just how important US military assets like HIMRAS are to the Ukrainians it would suggest that Yng's assessment is reasonable (without trying to assess what happens after the fall of Kyiv like insurgencies).

The rest of the post is mainly filled with suppositions on what ifs that are impossible to verify, like how and in what manner a non NATO Baltic looks like politically and militarily to Poland's military capabilities (I suspect they lack the sheer numbers to cover ground from Belarus to Moscow).

You're the one raising the counterfactual, don't complain when the most logical conclusions are drawn from the initial one. The EU already has military cooperation, do you really think it would not play a bigger role without NATO? Justify why. The Baltic would magically be less interested in finding military answers for their very new independence? Why, justify.

The U.S's success is built on European cooperation as much as vice versa. The U.S. is more militarized but the idea that military aid is the only thing that matters and Ukrainian soldiers would be fine with their families starving or freezing to death even if each of them would be bedecked like Robocop is a bit too much. Or that U.S. would have all that intelligence without European cooperation. Or could as efficiently trasport its weaponry, etc.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_foreign_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

If "Europe's" ability to "defend itself" is not based on their present or hypothetical military resources but their inability to keep Ukraine fighting without U.S, the U.S can't defend itself by the same metric. Both can because the Russian Army is a piece of poo poo that definitely would not be able to sustain an invasion and occupation of Ukraine on top of invasion and occupation of other countries. Fact. You have not provided any reason why they would be, given Europe's military capabilities on its' own now, much less what the absence of U.S. would have them obviously driven towards.

DarkCrawler fucked around with this message at 16:57 on Feb 16, 2023

# ? Feb 16, 2023 16:53

Gravitas Shortfall: Jul 17, 2007; Utility is seven-eighths Proximity.

Moon Slayer posted:

�I hope to be back to give an Easter mass here,� said Fedak, who was picking up pieces of wood that had been the Tenth Station of the Cross before it was blasted by a shell the day before. �If it is still not safe here, I have already prepared my paperwork to become an Army chaplain,� he said.

What a badass.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 17:11

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Google has published a report about Russia's cyber warfare efforts throughout the war. Quite interesting to see that the water resources agency, for example, was a much more common target than the parliament. The report itself is quite long, but the blog post does give a quick rundown of the main facts. Overall, GRU appears to have rather sophisticated teams, that ultimately fall short of out-muscling tech companies like Google in terms of, e.g., DDoSing protected targets. Probably consequently, a lot of focus seems to have been on social or information attacks.

quote:

From its incident response work, Mandiant observed more destructive cyberattacks in Ukraine during the first four months of 2022 than in the previous eight years with attacks peaking around the start of the invasion. While they saw significant activity after that period, the pace of attacks slowed and appeared less coordinated than the initial wave in February 2022. Specifically, destructive attacks often occurred more quickly after the attacker gained or regained access, often through compromised edge infrastructure. Many operations indicated an attempt by the Russian Armed Forces� Main Directorate of the General Staff (GRU) to balance competing priorities of access, collection, and disruption throughout each phase of activity.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 17:28

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

https://bipr.jhu.edu/events/4695-Johns-Hopkins-SAIS-Global-Risk-Conference---Russia-and-the-West-All-Bridges-Burn.cfm

In case anyone's interested, this panel will start in about 40 minutes.

quote:

As Putin's invasion of Ukraine nears its first grim anniversary, what future awaits Russia's relations with the West? This panel brings together distinguished experts who will share their views on the current geopolitical situation, on Russia's economic difficulties and its efforts to counteract Western economic sanctions, on the efficacy (or otherwise) of Russia's energy weapon, and on the limits and opportunities of the Sino-Russian relationship in helping Moscow escape its international isolation.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 17:53

buglord: Jul 31, 2010; Can't post for 41 minutes!; Buglord

Hannibal Rex posted:

https://bipr.jhu.edu/events/4695-Johns-Hopkins-SAIS-Global-Risk-Conference---Russia-and-the-West-All-Bridges-Burn.cfm

In case anyone's interested, this panel will start in about 40 minutes.

Are recordings of this posted on YouTube or something afterwards?

# ? Feb 16, 2023 17:55

Tomberforce: May 30, 2006

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64664560

Presumably setting the stage for an impending false flag into Belarus? Interested to see how committed the Belarussian army is to this idea....

# ? Feb 16, 2023 18:20

ChaseSP: Mar 25, 2013

0 enthusiasm or will at all especially given that Ukraine has constantly been reinforcing that border it would be stupid to actually attack due to the likely outcome of Belarus being greatly weakened and ukraine then being able to move troops stuck there to other areas where they'd be far more useful in the case of an actual invasion.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 18:24

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Tomberforce posted:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64664560

Presumably setting the stage for an impending false flag into Belarus? Interested to see how committed the Belarussian army is to this idea....

This is not meaningfully different from his rhetoric a year ago.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 18:26

Tomn: Aug 23, 2007; And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

Tomberforce posted:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64664560

Presumably setting the stage for an impending false flag into Belarus? Interested to see how committed the Belarussian army is to this idea....

I doubt it. My reading of that statement is that it's Luka going "Hoo, yeah, see Putin, I'm all gung-ho to fight alongside you, just like a loyal ally, and fight alongside you I will as soon as someone actually attacks me! (which will never actually happen because nobody actually has anything to gain from attacking me so really I'm committing myself to doing what I've done this entire conflict: sitting on the fence so hard I can feel the grass beneath me)"

It's pure fluff and hot air basically.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 18:26

Charlotte Hornets: Dec 30, 2011; by Fritz the Horse

Tomberforce posted:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64664560

Presumably setting the stage for an impending false flag into Belarus? Interested to see how committed the Belarussian army is to this idea....

Nah, it's the mandatory weekly article about how Belarussian army will attack through the forests and swamps of Polesia

# ? Feb 16, 2023 18:30

MikeC: Jul 19, 2004; BITCH ASS NARC

Hannibal Rex posted:

https://bipr.jhu.edu/events/4695-Johns-Hopkins-SAIS-Global-Risk-Conference---Russia-and-the-West-All-Bridges-Burn.cfm

In case anyone's interested, this panel will start in about 40 minutes.

How do I view this? There doesn't seem to be a link. I registered but I don't see a viewing link

Edit nvm got an email linkk

MikeC fucked around with this message at 18:38 on Feb 16, 2023

# ? Feb 16, 2023 18:30

RoyKeen: Jul 24, 2007; Grimey Drawer

Has there been any public discussion or whatever between Ukraine and Belarus? Anything that voiced towards Belarus just saying essentially "Don't" . I can't tell how willing they are in all this beyond getting the impression that they really aren't all that into it. They feel like the sidekick to a bigger friend who's drunkenly got into a fight and they feel somewhat obligated to join in but they really don't want to.
I'm wording this poorly but the I hope the gist comes across.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 18:31

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

RoyKeen posted:

Has there been any public discussion or whatever between Ukraine and Belarus? Anything that voiced towards Belarus just saying essentially "Don't" . I can't tell how willing they are in all this beyond getting the impression that they really aren't all that into it. They feel like the sidekick to a bigger friend who's drunkenly got into a fight and they feel somewhat obligated to join in but they really don't want to.
I'm wording this poorly but the I hope the gist comes across.

Belarus dictator is doing his default �Vladimir you're my big friend� thing while trying to not eat any more sanctions, or overthrown like he almost was once recently already. Ukraine and Belarus are simply ignoring each other.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 18:34

Morrow: Oct 31, 2010

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Belarus dictator is doing his default �Vladimir you're my big friend� thing while trying to not eat any more sanctions, or overthrown like he almost was once recently already. Ukraine and Belarus are simply ignoring each other.

My understanding is the Ukrainians had a lot of bad personal interactions with the Belarusian leadership the day of the invasion, with the Ukrainian army chief being advised by his Belarusian counterpart to surrender and being told to gently caress off, so they may just literally not be on speaking terms.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 19:03

Ynglaur: Oct 9, 2013; The Malta Conference, anyone?

DarkCrawler posted:

You're the one raising the counterfactual, don't complain when the most logical conclusions are drawn from the initial one. The EU already has military cooperation, do you really think it would not play a bigger role without NATO? Justify why. The Baltic would magically be less interested in finding military answers for their very new independence? Why, justify.

The U.S's success is built on European cooperation as much as vice versa. The U.S. is more militarized but the idea that military aid is the only thing that matters and Ukrainian soldiers would be fine with their families starving or freezing to death even if each of them would be bedecked like Robocop is a bit too much. Or that U.S. would have all that intelligence without European cooperation. Or could as efficiently trasport its weaponry, etc.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_foreign_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

If "Europe's" ability to "defend itself" is not based on their present or hypothetical military resources but their inability to keep Ukraine fighting without U.S, the U.S can't defend itself by the same metric. Both can because the Russian Army is a piece of poo poo that definitely would not be able to sustain an invasion and occupation of Ukraine on top of invasion and occupation of other countries. Fact. You have not provided any reason why they would be, given Europe's military capabilities on its' own now, much less what the absence of U.S. would have them obviously driven towards.

I think you're setting up some straw men arguments, but I'll try to address them by better supporting my initial assertion that "Europe cannot defend itself".

Its militaries lack the command and control infrastructure required to work across multiple countries at large operational scales (multiple divisions; hundreds of aircraft).
Its air forces lack the staffing to conduct detailed strike planning at scale (hundreds of aircraft).
Its military-industrial complex does not have enough companies who can produce at a scale required to supply an attritional war at this scale.
Much--certainly not all, but enough--of its equipment--and in particular its heavy mechanized equipment--is poorly maintained and cannot be relied upon.
Its existing stores of munitions are not sufficient for a sustained war. The third bullet highlights that this low potential duration is even more problematic: there is no current path to extend it.

If I read your original counter-argument correctly, you supposed that if the US were not in the picture, then Europe would have made better choices with regards to its own defense. Let me know if I got that wrong.

My answer to such an argument is: "perhaps." Alternate political socio-historical scenarios are not my forte, and so I tend to treat them as idle speculation. My argument is premised not on supposed past choices in a supposed past, but on the present. That is, my argument is framed in the present tense: "Europe is unable to defend itself."

I recognize that the EU has some provisions for common defense, but they strike me as wishful thinking. When have they been exercised? When was the last time a half-dozen EU countries came together--without NATO, and its accompanying infrastructure--to conduct a joint military exercise at operational scale? If you want to fight together, you have to train together, and the only place that happens is within NATO, which means with the US.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 19:05

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

buglord posted:

Are recordings of this posted on YouTube or something afterwards?

I think so, but it might take a week or two.
https://www.youtube.com/@JHUBIPR

# ? Feb 16, 2023 19:29

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Morrow posted:

My understanding is the Ukrainians had a lot of bad personal interactions with the Belarusian leadership the day of the invasion, with the Ukrainian army chief being advised by his Belarusian counterpart to surrender and being told to gently caress off, so they may just literally not be on speaking terms.

I believe that story had the Belarus minister of defence relay the Ukrainian minister of defence a message from the Russian minister of defence, rather than Belarus themselves showing some flavour of initiative there.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 20:06

Somaen: Nov 19, 2007; by vyelkin

The Belarusian army has been underfunded for decades not to become a danger to Lukash, they have no ideological reason to fight either

# ? Feb 16, 2023 21:29

fatherboxx: Mar 25, 2013

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1626256459280384001

Letting UA to practice more with their new AA arrivals sounds like not the best of ideas but maybe it is indicative of another offensive.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 21:32

Pook Good Mook: Aug 6, 2013; ENFORCE THE UNITED STATES DRESS CODE AT ALL COSTS!

This message paid for by the Men's Wearhouse& Jos A Bank Lobbying Group

fatherboxx posted:

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1626256459280384001

Letting UA to practice more with their new AA arrivals sounds like not the best of ideas but maybe it is indicative of another offensive.

They clearly think they are in a position to "win" this year.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 21:34

DTurtle: Apr 10, 2011

Ynglaur posted:

I recognize that the EU has some provisions for common defense, but they strike me as wishful thinking. When have they been exercised? When was the last time a half-dozen EU countries came together--without NATO, and its accompanying infrastructure--to conduct a joint military exercise at operational scale? If you want to fight together, you have to train together, and the only place that happens is within NATO, which means with the US.

How many countries are in the EU and not in NATO? Six (Austria, Cyprus, Finland, Ireland, Malta, and Sweden) of which two are just joining. The other four have tiny militaries (Austria's is the largest at 22000, followed by Cyprus with 16000, Ireland with 7000, and Malta with 1700 active soldiers).

Why should the members of NATO try to develop capabilities separate from NATO when working together and developing joint capabilities is the whole reason for NATO to exist?

DTurtle fucked around with this message at 21:45 on Feb 16, 2023

# ? Feb 16, 2023 21:36

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

fatherboxx posted:

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1626256459280384001

Letting UA to practice more with their new AA arrivals sounds like not the best of ideas but maybe it is indicative of another offensive.

I'm 50/50 on this being a new front versus this being (planned) recognition that at the current pace they would reach Dnipro by 2077, assuming European and American weapons factories get paid on time.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 21:38

Hieronymous Alloy: Jan 30, 2009; Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!; Morbid Hound

cinci zoo sniper posted:

I'm 50/50 on this being a new front versus this being (planned) recognition that at the current pace they would reach Dnipro by 2077, assuming European and American weapons factories get paid on time.

Simpler explanation is that somebody believes Putin is mad they aren't using their fancy planes enough

# ? Feb 16, 2023 21:40

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Simpler explanation is that somebody believes Putin is mad they aren't using their fancy planes enough

Yes, but it's also a bit weird in that the recently not-fired Surovikin was the guy whose approach to Syria was �just bomb everything with planes�. I would've expected, if there was a will to put the mat�riel on the line just like that, that he would've been the person to pull the plane card out. I guess you could attribute the intensification of the long-range airstrike campaign against Ukrainian civil infrastructure to him, but that's almost an artillery act to me.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 21:44

Orthanc6: Nov 4, 2009

fatherboxx posted:

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1626256459280384001

Letting UA to practice more with their new AA arrivals sounds like not the best of ideas but maybe it is indicative of another offensive.

Getting as much air attack in while Ukraine's Patriot operators are still in training I guess makes sense. But an expanded air war will probably just get Ukraine some F16's sooner rather than actually help Russia on offense. They can either attack the front line where the AA will be the strongest, or attack random soft targets which will just piss off Ukrainians even more and not help their infantry at all.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 21:47

Hieronymous Alloy: Jan 30, 2009; Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!; Morbid Hound

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Yes, but it's also a bit weird in that the recently not-fired Surovikin was the guy whose approach to Syria was �just bomb everything with planes�. I would've expected, if there was a will to put the mat�riel on the line just like that, that he would've been the person to pull the plane card out. I guess you could attribute the intensification of the long-range airstrike campaign against Ukrainian civil infrastructure to him, but that's almost an artillery act to me.

I'm just assuming increasing desperation and incompetence. The consistent pattern of the Russian military so far in this war has been the failure to realize that if your army gets blown up you don't automatically get a new one that's just as good as a replacement, it's gone. It would make sense that as the war continues and the first, second, and third string of leadership all get exhausted and sidelined, eventually someone in charge would get the bright idea to try human wave attacks with planes.

The entirety of the logic seems to be that the USSR was Stronk in Stalingrad by absorbing massive casualties so the best winning strategy now is also to make sure to take massive casualties again, best path to victory

Also you win by inflicting pain on civilians not by actually winning against the opposing military

Hieronymous Alloy fucked around with this message at 22:00 on Feb 16, 2023

# ? Feb 16, 2023 21:55

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Yes, but it's also a bit weird in that the recently not-fired Surovikin was the guy whose approach to Syria was �just bomb everything with planes�. I would've expected, if there was a will to put the mat�riel on the line just like that, that he would've been the person to pull the plane card out. I guess you could attribute the intensification of the long-range airstrike campaign against Ukrainian civil infrastructure to him, but that's almost an artillery act to me.

Russia's approach to Syria was very risk averse, at least after a rough initial period where they lost a bunch of nice stuff in stupid ways. Particularly so under Surovikin. The Syrian opposition had zero meaningful AA capability to speak of so there was zero risk to using air power in Syria and indeed that was the primary reason why Russia favored air power so heavily.

Basically the consistent thread between is a level of risk aversion, not airpower.

Russia suddenly becoming less risk averse with aircraft leads to the particularly interesting question of what other risks are they going to be more willing to accept?

# ? Feb 16, 2023 21:58

Small White Dragon: Nov 23, 2007; No relation.

DarkCrawler posted:

If EU was completely without NATO which had dissolved after Cold War ended or something, the Baltics would already be more militarized, probably in a conscription model. EU would have a military command structure of its own as well, at minimum. EU combined has exponentially more modern military hardware, trained soldiers, industrial base and oh, nuclear weapons in comparison to Ukraine.

How would the Baltics be next, given all those facts? gently caress Poland, Finland would have hosed up the Russian military that invaded Ukraine. Poland would have wiped it off the map. Europe would have been in Moscow inside two weeks.

I'm not sure going way down alt history paths is that useful, even if it is fun. We might as well discuss how this war would have played out if the Third Reich still ruled west Europe.

Somaen posted:

The Belarusian army has been underfunded for decades not to become a danger to Lukash, they have no ideological reason to fight either

I used to work with someone from Belarus, he said them being a small country next door to Ukraine, everybody knew the whole "Ukraine is full of Nazis" to be complete nonsense.

DTurtle posted:

How many countries are in the EU and not in NATO? Six (Austria, Cyprus, Finland, Ireland, Malta, and Sweden) of which two are just joining. The other four have tiny militaries (Austria's is the largest at 22000, followed by Cyprus with 16000, Ireland with 7000, and Malta with 1700 active soldiers).

Doesn't Austria have a "constitutional neutrality?" I thought that was the reason they were not part of Nato etc.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 22:27

Blut: Sep 11, 2009; if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Simpler explanation is that somebody believes Putin is mad they aren't using their fancy planes enough

The analysis that I've seen is with the Challenger/Abrams/Leopard announcements, the supply of Patriots/other air defense, and lots of murmurings about F16s etc, is that Russia is concerned that Western support for Ukraine is only making it stronger long term. So Putin is going to try to make one more big push once the ground is firm enough and the air force will have to be used extensively as part of that, costs be damned.

Which does make some sort of sense to me, but we'll see how it actually plays out.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 22:28

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Yes, but it's also a bit weird in that the recently not-fired Surovikin was the guy whose approach to Syria was �just bomb everything with planes�. I would've expected, if there was a will to put the mat�riel on the line just like that, that he would've been the person to pull the plane card out. I guess you could attribute the intensification of the long-range airstrike campaign against Ukrainian civil infrastructure to him, but that's almost an artillery act to me.

I feel like the simplest explanation is that they weren't ready for it. Any kind of bigger air operation needs planes that are in good shape, munitions for them, pilots with enough practice hours to fly combat sorties, ground crews that fix anything that can break during missions, commanders who can coordinate large air fleets together with air defenses, electronic warfare and ground forces, intelligence department that can provide up to date info on targets and threats, and so forth.

Especially the shape that a lot of the inventory was in and how much work it takes to hammer those planes into flyable shape may have been a major hindrance. At the beginning of Desert Storm the coalition aircraft were flying over 1000 sorties a day, day after day. It's hard to imagine anything close to such intensity from Russia, especially for an extended period.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 22:31

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

E: ^^ Also fair.

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Russia's approach to Syria was very risk averse, at least after a rough initial period where they lost a bunch of nice stuff in stupid ways. Particularly so under Surovikin. The Syrian opposition had zero meaningful AA capability to speak of so there was zero risk to using air power in Syria and indeed that was the primary reason why Russia favored air power so heavily.

Basically the consistent thread between is a level of risk aversion, not airpower.

Russia suddenly becoming less risk averse with aircraft leads to the particularly interesting question of what other risks are they going to be more willing to accept?

Hmm, you make an astute point. Surovikin was by far the most risk-averse Russian commander of the war in Ukraine.

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 23:08 on Feb 16, 2023

# ? Feb 16, 2023 23:06

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# ? May 25, 2024 15:29

DTurtle: Apr 10, 2011

Small White Dragon posted:

Doesn't Austria have a "constitutional neutrality?" I thought that was the reason they were not part of Nato etc.

Apparently so. However changing a constitutional law isn�t that impossible and has been done regularly. In addition, since the end of the Cold War, Austria has already greatly weakened its neutrality by joining the EU and also does a lot of cooperation with NATO.

If they wanted to (75% of the population doesn�t), there is nothing stopping them.

# ? Feb 16, 2023 23:07

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > War in Ukraine: thread feedback session open unttil Saturday (i'll regret this)

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