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Does it say how they arrived at that figure?
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Feb 15, 2023 22:41
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Going back to the post about lack of tactical air by the Russians, I wonder if thats the effect of sanctions preventing replacement parts and electronics from being brought into Russia? Those SU-25s may sure look pretty, but if the avionics are hosed because they are out of the right circuit boards and no quick way of replacing them, all they are now are just hanger queens.
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Feb 16, 2023 01:07
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psydude posted:I'm not going to copy and paste this entire WSJ article because the title says it all: I am not casting aspersions on that statement, but that is very difficult to grasp. I want to say there is no way this is possible, but I guess having nukes makes you confident in your ability to maintain territorial integrity no matter what.
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Feb 16, 2023 01:08
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I can't imagine that homesfront support logistics to the actual front can operate with just 3%. That seems hard to believe.
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Feb 16, 2023 01:12
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bulletsponge13 posted:I can't imagine that homesfront support logistics to the actual front can operate with just 3%. That seems hard to believe. I think maybe we should be reading that statement literally. That is to say, 97% of the army means JUST the army. It doesn't include the Rocket Corps, the Air forces, the Navy, Rail Service, or border guards.
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Feb 16, 2023 01:15
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A.o.D. posted:I think maybe we should be reading that statement literally. That is to say, 97% of the army means JUST the army. It doesn't include the Rocket Corps, the Air forces, the Navy, Rail Service, or border guards. That's a really good point I hadn't considered because I just lumped them all together. Thank you for the insight. Even 97% of one branch seems crazy to me, but much less insane than my mental picturing the Kremlin being run by four Colonels and a PFC to bring borscht.
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Feb 16, 2023 01:33
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A.o.D. posted:I think maybe we should be reading that statement literally. That is to say, 97% of the army means JUST the army. It doesn't include the Rocket Corps, the Air forces, the Navy, Rail Service, or border guards. Also, the expansion in size of the army thanks to mobilization probably means they haven't drawn down the absolute numbers inside their borders as much as 97% would suggest.
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Feb 16, 2023 01:34
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bulletsponge13 posted:That's a really good point I hadn't considered because I just lumped them all together. Thank you for the insight. I'm in the same boat, even if my reading is correct, it still makes me a little dizzy to conceptualize.
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Feb 16, 2023 01:35
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A.o.D. posted:I think maybe we should be reading that statement literally. That is to say, 97% of the army means JUST the army. It doesn't include the Rocket Corps, the Air forces, the Navy, Rail Service, or border guards. Weren’t there missile silo unit patches spotted earlier though?
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Feb 16, 2023 01:38
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Also Russia genuinely isn't worried about invasion because they know, deep down, it's not going to happen. Like Japan isn't going to invade the Kurils or wherever even if Russia movies literally everyone out.
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Feb 16, 2023 01:40
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I could see that being correct in some painfully parsed out way, like there's 97%of the equivalent manpower to the pre-2022 combat branches of the Russian army in theater right now.
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Feb 16, 2023 01:43
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Also Russia genuinely isn't worried about invasion because they know, deep down, it's not going to happen. China needs to retake Vladivostok
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Feb 16, 2023 01:46
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Chinese continent has been my pet theory for a while
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Feb 16, 2023 01:52
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What if they mean 97% of Russian forces aligned on/near/in Ukraine? I could see them having committed 97% of all forces that they have allocated for their invasion of Ukraine, but not 97% of the entire military.
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Feb 16, 2023 02:14
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not bad, you made me use 97% of my power
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Feb 16, 2023 02:50
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Something like 60% of their initial active duty Army was involved in the initial invasion. It's not a stretch to imagine that they could get an additional 37% by looking under a few rocks.
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Feb 16, 2023 07:32
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I'm thinking it's 97% of available BTGs.They have over 100 of them available, so 1 or 2 each in the Far East and facing Georgia fits with the numbers and ongoing commitments of Russian tactical units. That matches the number given for Ukraine deployments and covers their other at-risk regions.
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Feb 16, 2023 08:12
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Tatarstan should try to secede again, it'll be really funny.
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Feb 16, 2023 08:56
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Russia calls on the CSTO for aid, gets told to gently caress off...
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Feb 16, 2023 09:17
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Fearless posted:Russia calls on the CSTO for aid, gets told to gently caress off... They already have and already were haha.
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Feb 16, 2023 09:37
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psydude posted:They already have and already were haha. Yeah because they all know it will actually kick off world war three and they’re not gonna be on the winning side
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Feb 16, 2023 14:49
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Coasterphreak posted:Yeah because they all know it will actually kick off world war three and they’re not gonna be on the winning side Its funny how nobody wants to be your ally anymore when you've openly demonstrated that your position as a world military power is no longer deserved and you are just as likely to overthrow your allies as you are your enemies.
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Feb 16, 2023 14:50
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Cimber posted:Going back to the post about lack of tactical air by the Russians, I wonder if thats the effect of sanctions preventing replacement parts and electronics from being brought into Russia? Those SU-25s may sure look pretty, but if the avionics are hosed because they are out of the right circuit boards and no quick way of replacing them, all they are now are just hanger queens. Because the Russian Air Force still exists as a substantial force, Ukraine has to keep a whole bunch of people manning air defenses all over the country that can’t be redeployed nearer to the fighting. It’s kind a of a mutually denied air war right now, which is certainly part of why the fighting has become so grinding and attritional. If either side ( especially Russia) gained air superiority, that could really change things in a big way. I think the main goal of the cruise missile offensive was to knock out civilian infrastructure, but a potentially more dangerous effect is that it exhausts Ukrainian SAM stocks and then suddenly the Russian air force becomes a huge threat which Ukraine doesn’t have a good answer to.
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Feb 16, 2023 16:20
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What system would Ukraine need in order to start threatening aircraft in Crimea/the Black sea and inside of Russia/Belarus? I remember some folks saying the Patriot isn't really up to the task.
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Feb 16, 2023 16:51
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psydude posted:What system would Ukraine need in order to start threatening aircraft in Crimea/the Black sea and inside of Russia/Belarus? I remember some folks saying the Patriot isn't really up to the task. Patriots aren't designed for aircraft, as I recall.
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Feb 16, 2023 16:58
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bulletsponge13 posted:Patriots aren't designed for aircraft, as I recall. Not that that prevented it from blasting a Tornado and an F-18 out of the sky in friendly fire incidents.
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Feb 16, 2023 17:02
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bulletsponge13 posted:Patriots aren't designed for aircraft, as I recall. The Israeli's regularly use them against drones so I imagine an aircraft is easily targetable.
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Feb 16, 2023 17:04
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Patriot was originally an anti aircraft platform. PAC 3 is missile-only but it can shoot PAC 2 which can target aircraft, I think?
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Feb 16, 2023 17:07
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They may be optimized for different intercept geometries, but I don't think the missile particularly cares what the vehicle behind the targeting data you feed it is.
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Feb 16, 2023 17:09
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bulletsponge13 posted:Patriots aren't designed for aircraft, as I recall. Aircraft are the primary thing they were built for. They also can provide ballistic missile defense, but that came along a decade after it was fielded and only was proven acceptable about two decades after it was fielded. THAAD is ballistic missile pure and cannnot engage or defend itself from aircraft. in a well actually posted:Patriot was originally an anti aircraft platform. PAC 3 is missile-only but it can shoot PAC 2 which can target aircraft, I think? PAC-3 can engage aircraft. PAC-3 MSE as well. There is no missile-pure round for Patriot.
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Feb 16, 2023 17:27
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mlmp08 posted:THAAD is ballistic missile pure and cannnot engage or defend itself from aircraft. So it'd take the Ukrainians what, like a month to get THAADs shooting down airframes? Just going off their track record.
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Feb 16, 2023 17:35
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psydude posted:What system would Ukraine need in order to start threatening aircraft in Crimea/the Black sea and inside of Russia/Belarus? I remember some folks saying the Patriot isn't really up to the task. Well, a certain type of munition for the HIMARS or MLRS could threaten planes on the ground in Crimea. Just sayin'. Also, the Patriot can take down planes because it knows what the target is. It knows what the target is because it knows what the target isn't.
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Feb 16, 2023 17:45
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Diarrhea Elemental posted:So it'd take the Ukrainians what, like a month to get THAADs shooting down airframes? Just going off their track record. thaad is hit-to-kill, with no warhead, and its normal target set is non-maneuvering ballistic missiles at the edge of space, so it’d be amazing if it could even theoretically kill low-flying tactical aircraft
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Feb 16, 2023 17:48
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Thank you for the corrections. I was unaware that Patriots did something besides miss SCUDs because they failed Math101
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Feb 16, 2023 18:00
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Diarrhea Elemental posted:So it'd take the Ukrainians what, like a month to get THAADs shooting down airframes? Just going off their track record. Eastern Europeans can jerry rig anything they want.
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Feb 16, 2023 18:03
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bulletsponge13 posted:Thank you for the corrections. I was unaware that Patriots did something besides miss SCUDs because they failed Math101 By OIF, they hit every missile they fired at. Fratricides were a mess. Brits with no IFF, USAF got lost and shot up a friendly SAM site behind friendly lines (bring your maps with you….), F-18 pilot killed for very bad/dumb reasons by a Patriot unit.
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Feb 16, 2023 18:03
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Interesting. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-15-2023 quote:UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told the BBC that the UK had not seen the Russian “massing of a single force to punch through in a big offensive” and noted that Russians are now trying to advance in Donbas at a “huge cost.”[1] Wallace estimated that Russia could have committed up to 97 percent of its army to the fight in Ukraine and that its combat effectiveness has decreased by 40 percent due to an “almost First World War level of attrition” that measures Russian advances in meters in human wave attacks. ISW cannot independently confirm Wallace’s estimates, but his observation that Russia lacks sufficient mechanized combat power for a breakthrough aligns with previous ISW assessments that the conventional Russian military must undergo significant reconstitution before regaining the ability to conduct effective maneuver warfare.[2] Wallace’s observations also suggest that Russia does not have untapped combat-ready reserves capable of executing a large-scale offensive, which is also ISW’s assessment. So apparently the Russian strategy now is to send enough men at the Ukrainians until they run out of bullets, then Victory!(?)
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Feb 16, 2023 18:17
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mlmp08 posted:By OIF, they hit every missile they fired at. An F-16 put a HARM through one in self-defense (day after the Brits were killed).
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Feb 16, 2023 18:17
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Godholio posted:An F-16 put a HARM through one in self-defense (day after the Brits were killed). Yeah, I know what they said. They fundamentally didn’t understand which direction the SAM was facing, didn’t have the right maps through crew error resulting in not knowing where land forces were, and misidentified their target when they started engagement. Their pilot statements to the press after the fact were bullshit. I met a member of that flight once and he swore the Patriot was shooting at him, but he’s 100% wrong. Fortunately, they didn’t kill anyone.
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Feb 16, 2023 18:25
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hypnophant posted:thaad is hit-to-kill, with no warhead, and its normal target set is non-maneuvering ballistic missiles at the edge of space, so it’d be amazing if it could even theoretically kill low-flying tactical aircraft so you make the fixed-wing target match that intercept geometry by launching at a low angle from the bottom of a mineshaft?
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Feb 16, 2023 18:30
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