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Especially since the west has let most of their merchant tonnage take up flags of convenience too. Multinational holding companies are not going to charter their Liberian and Panamanian flagged vessels to move tanks to Taiwan once the Chinese submarine force puts to sea. Even that capacity isn’t state capacity. Beside that, British ships were guaranteed to be able to transit Suez in wartime, the straits at Singapore, make calls at Sierra Leone and the Cape, that’s not true today.
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Feb 17, 2023 22:02
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Fell Mood posted:Even people who know how hosed the west is seem to believe, or maybe hope that if poo poo hits the fan then the adults will come back and take charge. What I'm learning here is that there is nothing left for them to take charge of. Institutions have been completely hollowed out. it's like forcing michael moore to become a nazi
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Feb 17, 2023 22:02
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Hatebag posted:Aren't all the m1 tanks manufactured in lima, oh? That's pretty far from navigable waterways and just happens to be right along a freight rail line. If you're saying they take the tanks to lake erie and then to the Atlantic on barges I'll buy it but they still have to get them to lake erie and that's going to be on a train. Plus they have to get raw materials to the factory. Ohio is on the Great Lakes and has navigable inland rivers with quite a lot of barge traffic my dude. Baltimore is a major port. where is the steel plant in Baltimore? where are the steel and aluminum plants in Ohio? look a good example is Chicago. where are the steel facilities (right on the lake or on the calumet) where is the Ford assembly plant, right on the calumet. they both have rail too. but how does the majority of the bulk ore get to US steel? how does the majority of the steel coils get from US steel to the Ford assembly plant? I’m not saying rail isn’t important and a part of all this. Just that it’s a secondary part and it became the secondary part after WWII and the rather huge changes that occurred in marine shipping.
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Feb 17, 2023 22:16
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Frosted Flake posted:Beside that, British ships were guaranteed to be able to transit Suez in wartime, the straits at Singapore, make calls at Sierra Leone and the Cape, that’s not true today. Yeah, British empire falling apart is and was good.
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Feb 17, 2023 22:18
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Frosted Flake posted:Especially since the west has let most of their merchant tonnage take up flags of convenience too. Multinational holding companies are not going to charter their Liberian and Panamanian flagged vessels to move tanks to Taiwan once the Chinese submarine force puts to sea. Even that capacity isn’t state capacity. right and as I’ve pointed out before there exists one state remaining with the independent capacity for that type of sealift. they keep around lists of folks to call up and activate if they need to do it too.
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Feb 17, 2023 22:22
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within the usa by tonnage it is trucks, pipeline, rail, water within the usa by dollar value it is trucks, multimodal/mail, pipeline, rail, air water https://www.bts.gov/topics/freight-transportation/freight-shipments-mode
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Feb 17, 2023 22:24
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Trabisnikof posted:within the usa by tonnage it is trucks, pipeline, rail, water trucks deliver consumer goods to every neighborhood in the country, whereas military production is heavily centralized and most of it has an engine or goes on something with an engine to drive itself around, so you'd expect different transport ratios pipelines for POL ofc
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Feb 17, 2023 22:32
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Trabisnikof posted:within the usa by tonnage it is trucks, pipeline, rail, water yes but that includes all the drayage tonnages. so all stuff being moved by water is being counted multiple times in the other modes. think about it this way. you have a mine in Michigan. you dig the ore out of the ground. you move it around on trucks during processing. You move it by rail to the marine terminal. these are all short moves. but they add that total tonnage, and might occur multiple times for the same cargo. you load it onto a ship in superior. it discharges in Gary. it’s moved by truck and rail again within the steel facility. total tonnage is misleading there because of this.
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Feb 17, 2023 22:37
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I don't know about tanks, but APCs are contracted out to a couple thousand different factories. It's the only reason that large segments of the industry survived '08.
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Feb 17, 2023 22:38
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Ohio is on the Great Lakes and has navigable inland rivers with quite a lot of barge traffic my dude. Boats can get steel to the port or tanks from the port but you need rail for moving stuff to/from the factory. Trust me, I've played a lot of civilization, i know how this stuff works
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Feb 17, 2023 22:39
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rather think about it this way. How much iron ore is trucked from Michigan to Gary. None. But tonnage total of iron ore by truck is going to show up as higher than the vessel total. Could you practically supply the steel plant in Gary’s ore needs by truck (No)? But you’d show more tons moved by truck in the statistics.
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Feb 17, 2023 22:44
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atelier morgan posted:trucks deliver consumer goods to every neighborhood in the country, whereas military production is heavily centralized and most of it has an engine or goes on something with an engine to drive itself around, so you'd expect different transport ratios but really the question for the usa would be less about moving the specific military gear itself, but maintaining internal transport capacity in a peer conflict that lasts more than a few weeks. doesnt matter if you boat, truck, or train your tanks from the factory to the port if you dont have the fuel to do it or the electricity to run the factory or the food to feed the workers. we've already seen the impact of criminals taking down 1 pipeline company for a few days. real sabotage wouldnt go away after we paid the ransom. we dont have as much flexibility or redundancy in our infrastructure as we might imagine.
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Feb 17, 2023 22:45
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atelier morgan posted:trucks deliver consumer goods to every neighborhood in the country, whereas military production is heavily centralized and most of it has an engine or goes on something with an engine to drive itself around, so you'd expect different transport ratios I love the idea of a caravan of 10,000 apcs tearing rear end across america but i think it might be a little impractical
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Feb 17, 2023 22:48
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Hatebag posted:Boats can get steel to the port or tanks from the port but you need rail for moving stuff to/from the factory. Trust me, I've played a lot of civilization, i know how this stuff works depends on the factory. often the drayage is… trucks. differentiate in your head between the drayage and which mode does the primary move intermodally. there is a reason ocean waybills are referred to “master” and truck and freight forwarder waybills are often referred to as “house”.
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Feb 17, 2023 22:49
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Yeah but cutting redundancy caused Number to skyrocket so it was good
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Feb 17, 2023 22:49
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the logistics footprint of a war for america depends deeply on where the war is being fought its probably over an ocean, so its fair to say that water transport would be the single most important stat to look at to get an idea of logistics capability. if its inside america, because we're fighting ourselves then absolutely correct to go Trabisnikof posted:but really the question for the usa would be less about moving the specific military gear itself, but maintaining internal transport capacity in a peer conflict that lasts more than a few weeks. doesnt matter if you boat, truck, or train your tanks from the factory to the port if you dont have the fuel to do it or the electricity to run the factory or the food to feed the workers.
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Feb 17, 2023 22:52
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meanwhile in the ongoing war from the perspective of russia, clearly rail capacity is the fundamental metric just like it was over a century ago
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Feb 17, 2023 22:53
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nomad2020 posted:I don't know about tanks, but APCs are contracted out to a couple thousand different factories. It's the only reason that large segments of the industry survived '08. Well, General Dynamics in London seems to make most or all LAVs (don't know about Australian and American versions or Strykers), but other than that, yeah it's not like Willow Run or the Russian plants today.
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Feb 17, 2023 22:54
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the other thing is that “domestic “ trucking is going to pick up all the international container trade volume in its tonnage total. and again multiple times. Seattle marine terminal to a CFS is going to show up as a domestic move. CFS in Seattle to Portland again shows up in domestic truck tonnage. rail from Portland to where ever domestic rail move tonnage. drayage from rail terminal to final consignee more onto the domestic trucking total tonnage. so one import cargo might show up at-least three times in domestic truck tonnage and once on domestic rail.
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Feb 17, 2023 22:57
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atelier morgan posted:meanwhile in the ongoing war from the perspective of russia, clearly rail capacity is the fundamental metric just like it was over a century ago from the Russian perspective yes. and in a limited regional war. from the EU / American supply of the Ukraine side far less so
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Feb 17, 2023 23:01
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Hatebag posted:I love the idea of a caravan of 10,000 apcs tearing rear end across america but i think it might be a little impractical yes they would put them on a RORO ship. that’s why we came up with the RORO for exactly that. I even spent some time on the Comet and the Meteor back in the day as a Cadet.
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Feb 17, 2023 23:04
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you wanna ship stuff by boat? you better be producing tons of steel and have some shipyards handy
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Feb 17, 2023 23:05
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Delta-Wye posted:you better be producing tons of steel and have some shipyards handy right the Chinese definitely get this.
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Feb 17, 2023 23:07
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Frosted Flake posted:Well, General Dynamics in London seems to make most or all LAVs (don't know about Australian and American versions or Strykers), but other than that, yeah it's not like Willow Run or the Russian plants today. E: in fairness, I confused APCs for MRAPs. MRAPs are assembled in random factories all over. Looks like all US built tanks come from Lima, Ohio https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lima_Army_Tank_Plant nomad2020 has issued a correction as of 23:11 on Feb 17, 2023 |
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Feb 17, 2023 23:08
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Bar Ran Dun posted:depends on the factory. often the drayage is… trucks. Great, but if you want to supply enough factories and steel mills to do a war, trucks ain't cuttin it because they can't move as much volume as rail and they cost a lot more. Which is why robustness of railroads is a good metric for determining the war capacity of country It's pretty irrelevant though because in a full scale war the us is getting out the nukes in the first minute
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Feb 17, 2023 23:08
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/16/keir-starmer-visits-kyiv-labour-backing-ukrainequote:“I’ve said throughout this conflict there will be no difference between the political parties on this, so we will continue to work with the government to see what further support we can provide.” he may as well be a Democrat
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Feb 17, 2023 23:10
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Bar Ran Dun posted:right the Chinese definitely get this. also, foreign policy mag is trash. 
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Feb 17, 2023 23:13
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Filthy Hans posted:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/16/keir-starmer-visits-kyiv-labour-backing-ukraine starmer is only labour because his family wasn't posh enough to send him to eton and the tories wouldn't let him in, but as far as discussing wars is concerned there are few countries less relevant than the uk
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Feb 17, 2023 23:13
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nomad2020 posted:E: in fairness, I confused APCs for MRAPs. MRAPs are assembled in random factories all over. I think that's because they went with a mishmash of designs, based on truck platforms. The whole thing was pretty slapdash, with South African Nyalas, International MaxxPros, and whatever else they could get. Of course, that's all Ukraine's problem now, which neatly solved the problem of all of these surplus to requirements vehicles there's no doctrine for. e: and American police departments.
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Feb 17, 2023 23:15
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Hatebag posted:Great, but if you want to supply enough factories and steel mills to do a war, trucks ain't cuttin it because they can't move as much volume as rail and they cost a lot more. right and what I’m trying to communicate to you is: that rail ain’t cutting it because they can't move as much volume as ships and they cost a lot more. four 150 hopper car trains is one Panamax loading to 13 m. a single Afromax might be ten trains. it’s worse on the container side the Ever Ace is basically equivalent to 40 double stacked 150 40’ car trains.
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Feb 17, 2023 23:17
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Delta-Wye posted:you wanna ship stuff by boat? All that can be done over seas, those steel plants and shipyards are taking up valuable real estate that can be turned inro boutique shopping centers
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Feb 17, 2023 23:20
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Delta-Wye posted:my thesis was that knowing calculus is good and helps in making good policy decisions. or, said in another way, not understanding differential equations results in selling off your country's productive capacity. Palmer is a UK sexpat and wow, he really looks the part
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Feb 17, 2023 23:20
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Delta-Wye posted:my thesis was that knowing calculus is good and helps in making good policy decisions. or, said in another way, not understanding differential equations results in selling off your country's productive capacity. unfortunately globalized supply chains are rooted in stock and flow models though. they get differential equations and controls. I mean I’ve got books about the DCOR-SCOR-CCOR models in my library that prove that. the problem there is the models are optimized for shareholder return without any sort of real stability considered or things like the good of society considered.
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Feb 17, 2023 23:25
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KomradeX posted:All that can be done over seas, those steel plants and shipyards are taking up valuable real estate that can be turned inro boutique shopping centers a steel mill superfund site I used to go look at barges at is now a presidential library and housing development. lmao
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Feb 17, 2023 23:26
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Well, as I prefaced, my colleague used historical examples so, to wit: - Most of the US merchant fleet reflagged after CSS Alabama and other merchant raiders broke out into the Atlantic - The CSA merchant fleet had to run a blockade - Slow merchants were mostly captured or sunk, or did not take charters - Fast blockade runners did not have enough capacity to support the war effort, least of all the export of cotton - The Confederates further faced successful Union campaigns to capture the Mississippi - Of the major ports, Norfolk, Wilmington, Charleston and Savannah and on the Gulf coast Pensacola, Mobile, New Orleans and Galveston, several fell to the Union or were subject to a close blockade - The Seacoast fortification system was attacked repeatedly, further denying maritime traffic. The Union became very skilled at naval bombardments, for example, Fort Pulaski surrendered after less than two days' bombardment (previously, ships hardly ever beat forts, as a rule.) - In the Austro-Prussian War, neither merchant fleet made much of a contribution that I am aware of - In the Franco-Prussian War, as above - Railroads are generally agreed to have more-or-less decided both wars. - In the First World War, the German Merchant Fleet was largely interred in foreign ports, captured by British cruisers on colonial stations, or unable to break the blockade - The two U-Boat campaigns were successful, but not enough to take Britain out of the war or prevent the transit of US troops to theatre - The French merchant marine was able to complete the mobilization plan to transfer forces from North Africa to Metropolitan France, despite the cruisers Goeben and Breslau - In the Far East, SMS Emden met some success disrupting coaling, telegraph and merchant shipping networks - The Autro-Hungarian merchant fleet was mostly interred or confined to the Adriatic, the Danube Flotilla was probably the most effective part of the whole military though - There's more about railroads than I'd be able to say, other than they were a big deal, critical for Tannenberg, supplying all fronts etc. - I can't recount the entire history of merchant shipping in the Second World War, other than, the German merchant marine was again interred or blockaded, the Italian likewise, the Japanese sunk, the French negligibly involved in the war other than again transfer of forces to North Africa, the Soviet Merchant Marine was often confined to coastal and riverine traffic only. So, all of that to say, no disrespect to Mahan, the American idea of seapower comes from their geography and need to import and export everything by sea, for the same reason that Britain was preoccupied by virtue of being an island. For countries other than those, railroad capacity is imo a better marker than merchant tonnage.
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Feb 17, 2023 23:36
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You need to rail one way or another to move armies and material around Eurasia, and if you control Eurasia, you are eventually going to control the world island. EU material is being sent by rail usually as well unless it is by plane. Anyway, it only really matters if you think particularly China is going to be vulnerable to an embargo and it clearly isn’t as long as it has secure control of interior lines of supply along with its own domestic resources.
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Feb 17, 2023 23:39
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Ardennes posted:You need to rail one way or another to move armies and material around Eurasia, and if you control Eurasia, you are eventually going to control the world island. But what about luxury goods and automobiles?
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Feb 17, 2023 23:41
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Frosted Flake posted:Well, as I prefaced, my colleague used historical examples so, to wit: When the Europeans besieged Sevastopol in the Crimean War the French had the foresight to build a railroad from their supply port to the front line, even though it was only a few miles. The Brits never thought to do that so they just had their troops schlep all the gear several miles uphill. When the winter hit this became virtually impossible for heavier gear. The French could bring in artillery shells but the Brits couldn't.
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Feb 18, 2023 00:18
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speaking of railchat: what's up with canada all the way down there below the us edit: source Danann has issued a correction as of 01:55 on Feb 18, 2023 |
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Feb 18, 2023 01:33
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Danann posted:speaking of railchat: Back in the 1860's the two railroad companies were able to bribe the two political parties, including the first Prime Minister, so the government has never really directed the construction or organization of railroads.
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Feb 18, 2023 01:49
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