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Don't think this has been posted yet but a charity foundation was able to return some kids to their parents. The stories about kids just disappearing from youth camps are wild https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-children-reunite-with-families-kyiv-/32276234.html 
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Feb 18, 2023 01:42
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Orthanc6 posted:
Further down that thread someone posted a snippet of conversation with the guy who shot the video, so i guess he lived. Apparently, the other dude handing him munitions from his hidey hole was debilitated by fear, and who can blame him? That was some harrowing poo poo.
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Feb 18, 2023 03:39
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Svaha posted:If the video is released, more than likely someone lived to release it. I was debilitated by fear and I didn't have my buddy spraying automatic fire a foot above my head as an excuse.
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Feb 18, 2023 03:56
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Can this number really be right? https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1626786121861500928
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Feb 18, 2023 05:53
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This from Fiona Hill in that WaPo article Moon Slayer “The launching of the invasion itself has shown that his views of past events can provoke him to cause massive human suffering. “ This is Revolutionary Romanticism and it’s what is essential to all the far right movements happening now. They all look to an ideal past that never happened that they’ll be violent to bring back.
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Feb 18, 2023 06:22
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Here’s a real banality of evil video in Russian about three guys who came back from war: https://youtu.be/Lfs_eTFRNyE Highlights include father of three going to volunteer at the enlistment office but getting mobilized on the spot instead, gets used like cannon fodder, blown up on a mine, hospital loses his transfer papers. Now he’s home, whole family income is government child support payments. Guy gets severe ptsd at playground hiding under bench from kid’s drone. He’s still trying to get back to the front though, saying poo poo like “even if it’s true that we attacked them, there must have been a good reason to do it” Willful ignorance is off the charts. They also make it sounds like very few of them make it out alive.
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Feb 18, 2023 06:41
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queeb posted:This is extremely NMS christ, a vision of hell on earth what a stupid loving war
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Feb 18, 2023 07:35
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but holy man the footage coming out. Video containsan extremely close range trench fight, Russians dying and a Ukranian Rambo popping off.
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Blut posted:https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1626244170917478400 I know everybody here seems to think the Republicans all love Putin (and I don't doubt that there are some that do) but I live in a red district currently and most of the right wingers here do not seem to think well of him.
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Feb 18, 2023 08:11
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Charlz Guybon posted:Can this number really be right? The number could be right, since we know that January 2023 YoY Russian prison population number, officially, decreased by 32 thousand. A Russian NGO specialising on its penitentiary system estimated 42-43k recruited into Wagner by the end of December, and around 50k in late January. Since Wagner used them primarily as cannon fodder, 32k dead or missing Wagner recruits is a number that is at least somewhat plausible. However, that is about the text on the tweet. The reality is that Meduza didn't report anything like that. The source article has the representative of the aforementioned NGO say that there's only about 10k of them left fighting in Ukraine – but that was as of January 23 too. Now, I would try guessing that they meant to link this article, which merely translates into Russian a 12 hours old update from CNN that more than 30k Wagner fighters have been wounded or killed, but that's slightly different substance, and the ISW tweet predates the Meduza article. I literally am unable to find anything published on Meduza about Wagner that would say the number of 32k. The one way you get to 32k is by doing 42k (in December, instead of 50k pronounced as of the day of that interview in January) - 10k (that the same person said were left fighting as of the interview day). Which, sure, gets you 32k, but it's literally a mathematically incorrect operation to make (dates don't match, and she says that wounded would be included into this count), and also something not really relevant for a daily update in late February lol. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 11:07 on Feb 18, 2023 |
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Feb 18, 2023 11:02
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Small White Dragon posted:I know everybody here seems to think the Republicans all love Putin (and I don't doubt that there are some that do) but I live in a red district currently and most of the right wingers here do not seem to think well of him. I think the worry is less about Republicans loving Putin and more about craven Republican politicians saying “Now I hate Putin don’t get me wrong, but we shouldn’t be sending our money halfway around the world” and their supporters nodding in agreement.
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Feb 18, 2023 11:08
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I don't think it's republicans liking Putin that is the worry. It's republicans who don't like Ukraine either and would prefer to just let them fight each other on their own who are.
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Feb 18, 2023 11:37
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I don't think the fear of gop doing a 180 on Ukraine can be predicated on any ideological positions, or long term preferences (i.e. likinh Russia or disliking Ukraine); it's entirely up to their reckless and blind opportunism, and I'm not talking about being bought out by Russia either, I'm talking turning against everything, even their core principles, the second it can be used to drum up more culture war frenzy. Which makes it more terrifying than naked ideological support for Russia because it can't be predicted, it can't be reasoned with, it can't be bargained over, it can't be countered through means that are supposed to work in democracy.
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Feb 18, 2023 12:03
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Small White Dragon posted:I know everybody here seems to think the Republicans all love Putin (and I don't doubt that there are some that do) but I live in a red district currently and most of the right wingers here do not seem to think well of him.
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Feb 18, 2023 12:28
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I hope this isn't too bothersome for the rest of the thread, but the Finnish Yleisradio had an interview with the head of our parliamentary committee on foreign affairs and he said that (my translation) "the furtherance of the membership processes of both Finland and Sweden are what is important", and more tellingly that "Finland could more effectively aid Sweden in their application process by being within NATO". No one is saying the quiet part out loud just yet, but perhaps we (Finland) will apply ahead of our cousins?
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Feb 18, 2023 13:49
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My understanding is that Finland and Sweden applied already some time ago and are waiting for ratification. In any case, Finland getting in before Sweden seems increasingly likely, yes. https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1625559810853769219?s=20 beer_war fucked around with this message at 14:04 on Feb 18, 2023 |
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Feb 18, 2023 13:59
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It's up to Turkey to see how they ratify the applications. Finland and Sweden applied for membership simultaneously, but they still are two separate applications and no external force in universe stopped them from ratifying the Finnish application last summer. Finland is having parliamentary elections in the spring so the parliament is now codifying the membership in advance in case something happens. The chaos option would be if Turkey ratified just Finland and Hungary just Sweden 
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Feb 18, 2023 14:11
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The Finnish president opined earlier today, "our position is crystal-clear. [...] The situation is that our applications are on the table at Ankara. If Turkey decided to say yes to to Finland but not yet to Sweden, that would be a troublesome situation for us. Our hands are tied, and we have applied for membership. Should we say we withdraw our application? We simply cannot do that."
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Feb 18, 2023 14:18
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Small White Dragon posted:I know everybody here seems to think the Republicans all love Putin (and I don't doubt that there are some that do) but I live in a red district currently and most of the right wingers here do not seem to think well of him. My impression from Scandinavia is that the political right is fracturing over this - with the majority being anti-Putin and a (very vocal, but from numerically trivial) minority being appeasers/isolationist or even pro-Putin. I think we might see a shift back towards swing voters from the previous paradigm of activating more extreme elements (that will not vote for candidates that appeal to swing voters). In some countries we might see political fractures instead. But I really don't think we'll see right-wing governments embrace Putin. Italy is an example that there simply isn't popular support for such a move - and that's a government with Putin's best buddy Berlusconi as head of one of the coalition parties. Especially as a prolonged war will likely lead to an progressively weakened Russia, and there are a lot of western right-wing politicians who'll relish an opportunity to manifest some national superiority.
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Feb 18, 2023 15:11
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There was definitely a concerted effort being started by the US far-right mediasphere in the months before the invasion to spin up a narrative of "Putin is defending traditional Christian values (ignore what brand of Christianity) and we should want a leader that acts like him." It was still fringe but it was well into the Alt-Right -> Tucker Carlson et al -> GOP platform pipeline. If Russia had held off for another year or two or, God forbid, into a second Trump presidency, who knows how that might have gone? e: an example https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1483612693827182596?s=20 And I definitely saw some "Russian army is STRONG manly men while America's army is taking classes on pronouns" political cartoons. Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 16:57 on Feb 18, 2023 |
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Feb 18, 2023 16:45
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https://twitter.com/rajan_menon_/status/1626950223091097601?s=20 The Kotkin interview is a worthwhile read, even though I disagree significantly with some of his arguments. My main contention would be that Europe has to ramp up its defense industrial production significantly regardless of how the war in Ukraine develops, or even if it concludes. So the West can very much outproduce Russia, and effectively, Ukraine's defense industry is unreachable by Russia too, unless they decide to escalate to a war against NATO.
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Feb 18, 2023 18:04
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Interesting NYT piece on how Luxembourg is trying to support the war effort. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/17/world/europe/luxembourg-weapons-ukraine-nato.html Kinda highlights the limits of what you can do with money alone it seems. I admire the intent but this is written to seem like a very poor use of money.
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Feb 18, 2023 18:10
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WarpedLichen posted:Interesting NYT piece on how Luxembourg is trying to support the war effort. Maybe they should just give the money to Ukraine?
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Feb 18, 2023 19:20
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PederP posted:My impression from Scandinavia is that the political right is fracturing over this - with the majority being anti-Putin and a (very vocal, but from numerically trivial) minority being appeasers/isolationist or even pro-Putin. I think we might see a shift back towards swing voters from the previous paradigm of activating more extreme elements (that will not vote for candidates that appeal to swing voters). In some countries we might see political fractures instead. The leader of Sweden’s large right wing populist party famously refused to say wether he prefers Biden or Putin just weeks before the invasion. The right wing populist leadership strata here generally adores Putin for the same reasons Orban et al do. However they are less public about it after the invasion. As for their voters, it’s a mixed bag, from those who don’t care, to pro-authorian nationalist sensitivities, to russophobic attitudes that never left the cold war to people who just vote populist because they want cheap gas. If the majority of the population was not as clearly on ukraine’s side, Jimmy Åkesson would publically petition for the sanctions on Russia to be lifted.
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Feb 18, 2023 19:35
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This might be worth a look for anyone interested in how the war has impacted the Russian government economically: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z77tvKfNbVM TLDW: The Russian budget expected a 2.9 trillion rubles deficit in 2023. In January alone the deficit was 1.76 trillion rubles. Not a good start for 2023.
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Feb 18, 2023 20:58
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/rajan_menon_/status/1626950223091097601?s=20 Yeah his whole argument seems to imply the west simply can’t produce enough weapons to properly challenge Russia AND arm Taiwan to deter China. I just don’t think that’s true. But the rest of his arguments sadden me deeply. It looks like inevitably Putin will probably get Donetsk and Luhansk but not before he kills a shitload more people and wrecks most of the Ukrainian infrastructure. But there’s effectively no way to make him stop. He has the resources to absorb losses and his war industry is untouchable beyond a few “Doolittle raids” into Russian border lands. Eventually the tide of people and metal that Russia can throw into this will overwhelm Ukraine from an attrition perspective because the west can’t produce the high quality equipment Ukraine needs to hold off the Russian army in the required numbers. At the required time. If the west could’ve quietly spooled up armaments production and stockpiles prior to the war starting I’d argue we’d have a different story. But this isn’t going to stop. Even if Ukraine retakes all its territory the eastern border of Ukraine is gonna be like the Gaza Strip where Russians shell and attack from their side and Ukraine can’t proceed any further or shoot back. NATOs entire strategy involves the use of a robust airforce to do most of the heavy lifting to deal with the Russian army. A robust airforce for Ukraine is impossible. The time it takes to spool up production of artillery, shells and anti air missiles and long range theatre ballistic missiles and rockets is too long for Ukraine to leverage that into battlefield success. So this conflict is gonna drag on and on and on with limited breakthroughs until someone gives up. I just don’t think it’s gonna be Russia. If even a square kilometre of territory that belonged to Ukraine is now controlled by Russia at the end of this conflict it’ll be a victory for Putin a pyrrhic victory, but a victory none the less. Nobody in his regime will face external consequences for this. It’s impossible without starting WW3 which we all agree nobody wants. Should also point out that the post war reconstruction required is probably going to be even more of a difficult sell to the west than the war material aid they’re giving now. Who is going to finance nearly a trillion dollars in reconstruction for Ukraine? Nobody in America will tolerate a Marshall plan for Ukraine when they can’t even get a needed Marshall plan for all their destitute communities stateside. If the west doesn’t seize the Russian assets they froze and hand them over as reconstruction payments to Ukraine there’s going to be severe trouble. The Ukrainians could turn bitter and revanchist when they find out the war is over and their allies abandoned them because nobody wants to foot the bill for their reconstruction. Kraftwerk fucked around with this message at 22:41 on Feb 18, 2023 |
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Feb 18, 2023 22:32
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Kraftwerk posted:Yeah his whole argument seems to imply the west simply can’t produce enough weapons to properly challenge Russia AND arm Taiwan to deter China. I just don’t think that’s true. Since several countries have been ramping up production, and continue to extend production, I have to disagree with all of this. It's basically a post based on information from 2021, and now all of that info is obsolete. We're basically doing only the absolute minimum to arm, supply and train Ukrainian forces. If we'd do this seriously, Ukrainian troops could be in Moscow by this time next year. And the threat of nuclear war as long as NATO isn't attacking is a resounding zero, because what is Putin coing to do when Ukraine pushes his poo poo in, drop a nuke on himself? 
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Feb 18, 2023 22:45
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Kraftwerk posted:Should also point out that the post war reconstruction required is probably going to be even more of a difficult sell to the west than the war material aid they’re giving now. I also don't have much optimism that reconstruction will be done as well as we would want regardless of what happens in this war. Rebuilding the western part of Ukraine, yes, but I think the eastern part is so wrecked it will become a hot bed of issues for years to come. That area will be a smouldering ruin regardless of who ends up the administrator of the territory. Who knows if the political situation afterwards will be stable enough for resource exploitation in the Donbas which seems like the only hope.
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Feb 18, 2023 22:58
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WarpedLichen posted:I also don't have much optimism that reconstruction will be done as well as we would want regardless of what happens in this war. Rebuilding the western part of Ukraine, yes, but I think the eastern part is so wrecked it will become a hot bed of issues for years to come. That area will be a smouldering ruin regardless of who ends up the administrator of the territory. Who knows if the political situation afterwards will be stable enough for resource exploitation in the Donbas which seems like the only hope. Yeah see that’s the issue right there. Even if you totally decimate the Russian army they’ll still have enough resources to threaten the Donbas enough to stop any kind of natural gas exploration or foreign direct investment. It would be super high risk for minimal reward. Modern industry benefits greatly from natural gas not just from an energy perspective but because it’s extremely versatile to crack the natural gas using PDH units into high yields of all kinds of solvents and chemicals needed by European industry. In a perfect world big name companies like BASF could buy their feedstocks from a reconstructed Ukraine with gas exploration being a priority out east. But LOL if you think Russia will allow that to happen. Infiltration, sabotage and the constant threat of missile attacks is going to apply so much risk to those areas that no investor in their right mind would ever think of putting their money there. Also a Ukraine that fought and bled for their land won’t take kindly to western companies buying out their economy on the cheap in the form of foreign direct investment as a deal with the devil to rebuild their economy. It’ll feel like trading one kind of exploiter to another. There’s a lot of post war issues that could really fracture the relationship with the west if the guns ever go silent. Remember we’re still dealing with modern capitalism. Todays hero Ukrainians are tomorrows welfare queens. I’m of the opinion that forcibly seizing Russian assets and offshore reserves to fund a Ukrainian reconstruction is the bare minimum requirement for a post war Ukraine. But the legal process for making that happen is long and difficult. Rightfully so because no country should have the power to unilaterally rob another of their money by decree. The rule of law exists for a reason. It’s just unfortunate that it works against us here. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 18, 2023 23:10
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Kraftwerk posted:Should also point out that the post war reconstruction required is probably going to be even more of a difficult sell to the west than the war material aid they’re giving now.
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Feb 18, 2023 23:14
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Failing to rebuild Ukraine after the war is the same as letting them be defeated. Europe will gain nothing if we can`t stabilize Ukraine and build it up. It will be extremely expensive. But letting Ukraine become a chaotic failed state will be much more expensive in the long run. That would be just be playing into the hands next Putin who in 20 years would be able to truthfully say " See you would have been better off submitting to us after all".
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Feb 18, 2023 23:45
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All of that remains to be seen, really. There's no telling how well either Russia or the west will fair in the arms race, as it is a problem for both sides and is reminiscent of the shell crisis of WW1. Russia has a head start in this race and has destroyed large share of Ukraine's domestic production capacity, but they have their own problems in producing anything a little more advanced, to the point of relying on Iran's help. The west just needs to pull their collective heads out of their arses and expand the production of all assets that Ukraine needs. It can be done, I'm sure, but how long it takes remains to be seen. For a comparison we might think of the speed at which covid vaccines were developed and new production pipelines set up. As for the rebuilding I'm fairly optimistic for Ukraine, not to say that it will be easy but experience shows that wars like this make the people more willing to put up with a centralised government and heavy taxes than usually. Meaning that the government has more leeway to direct limited resources to where they have the most effect. Finland after WW2 is an example familiar to me - one in ten Finns had to be relocated after Stalin annexed Karelia, but people got busy rebuilding and loving and soon the economy was chugging like never before. People who lost their homes and possessions were of course worse off than others even after being given tiny farms, but their kids were already much better off. There's also going to be close to full employment which means that even people with war injuries will be needed in the work force. Times will be hard but the economy will grow rapidly. Economic aid will be important in this but it shouldn't be overstated, and it needs to be controlled well to combat corruption.
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Feb 19, 2023 00:22
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The real issue will be getting the refugees (particularly the entire IT industry) to come home. I suspect most will, but there's going to be a bunch of people with nice jobs in the west and no home to go back to who will have a bit of an awkward personal choice on returning to help rebuild the motherland.
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Feb 19, 2023 00:30
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Alchenar posted:The real issue will be getting the refugees (particularly the entire IT industry) to come home. I suspect most will, but there's going to be a bunch of people with nice jobs in the west and no home to go back to who will have a bit of an awkward personal choice on returning to help rebuild the motherland. This is true, but then again it reduces the pressure to resettle everyone right away if some stay abroad longer. And even the ones who find new life outside Ukraine permanently can contribute to the rebuilding through remittances to family, investment in Ukrainian companies, using their language skills to enable trade etc.
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Feb 19, 2023 00:42
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Kraftwerk posted:
Now they have been able to activate some of the tanks they had in mothballs, but not at anywhere near the pace necessary to keep up with losses and there is a limit to how many tanks they can reactivate. Most of them have been rusting in a field for decades or already been stripped for parts. By the end of the year, if not earlier, the Russians will be incapable of maneuver warfare on any meaningful scale. EDIT: I also dispute the idea that we're not providing Ukraine a lot of material. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html https://twitter.com/envirosec/status/1626929673748811776 Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 01:59 on Feb 19, 2023 |
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Feb 19, 2023 01:27
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Baudolino posted:Failing to rebuild Ukraine after the war is the same as letting them be defeated. Europe will gain nothing if we can`t stabilize Ukraine and build it up. It will be extremely expensive. But letting Ukraine become a chaotic failed state will be much more expensive in the long run. You can rebuild only part of a country. You can have international tourists enjoying ice cream in central Lviv at the same time that Kramatorsk is getting shelled. Obviously not now, but in five years or whatever when Russia stops doing rocket attacks - just like you could in 2016, or like you can now enjoy a lovely time in Western Turkey, but (even prior to the earthquake) probably would not go and hang out in the far southeast. Ukraine is huge and it’s possible, and likely, to have extreme dichotomies. Letting southeast Ukraine be a failed war zone mess is indefinitely sustainable, as we saw from 2014-2022. That could have continued no problem for decades if Putin had not suddenly freaked out.
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Feb 19, 2023 02:08
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Saladman posted:You can rebuild only part of a country. You can have international tourists enjoying ice cream in central Lviv at the same time that Kramatorsk is getting shelled. Obviously not now, but in five years or whatever when Russia stops doing rocket attacks - just like you could in 2016, or like you can now enjoy a lovely time in Western Turkey, but (even prior to the earthquake) probably would not go and hang out in the far southeast. Ukraine is huge and it’s possible, and likely, to have extreme dichotomies. Technically true, but big dichotomies are usually pretty bad for stability even though they are quite common, at best you have a disenfranchised minority and a region of the country that is unproductive and at worst you have the seeds for another civil war/secession movement. On the Bakhmut front, WarMonitor3 is doing a daily Bakhmut holds update since Feb 2, https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1626690005010722816 Which makes me realize that I somewhat miss the sunflower/Kyiv remains Ukrainian posts in these threads.
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Feb 19, 2023 02:26
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Charlz Guybon posted:This is basically nonsense. The Russians have lost roughly 2k of their initial 3k tanks. People have been making this prediction again and again over the course of the entire war. Russia's lack of capability to conduct maneuver warfare is not a question of hardware, but poorly-trained soldiers, lousy officers, aversion to risk, and an inability to conduct combined arms warfare in general. They will always have more hardware to pull out of storage; the trend is just that each successive pull from the boneyard will be less reliable and take more parts/effort to restore than the last. It's like with the mobilizations. They have millions of civilians they can turn into soldiers; they'll never run out. Just that every wave of mobilization will be less fit, motivated, trained & equipped than the last.
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Feb 19, 2023 02:54
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HolHorsejob posted:People have been making this prediction again and again over the course of the entire war. Russia's lack of capability to conduct maneuver warfare is not a question of hardware, but poorly-trained soldiers, lousy officers, aversion to risk, and an inability to conduct combined arms warfare in general. They will always have more hardware to pull out of storage; the trend is just that each successive pull from the boneyard will be less reliable and take more parts/effort to restore than the last.
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Feb 19, 2023 02:56
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HolHorsejob posted:People have been making this prediction again and again over the course of the entire war. Russia's lack of capability to conduct maneuver warfare is not a question of hardware, but poorly-trained soldiers, lousy officers, aversion to risk, and an inability to conduct combined arms warfare in general. They will always have more hardware to pull out of storage; the trend is just that each successive pull from the boneyard will be less reliable and take more parts/effort to restore than the last. Conscripts and soldiers? Sure you may have a point. You're right that there is potentially millions of people in the pool that can be pulled from and as long as the domestic stability price is paid (such as it is in an authoritarian state like Russia as it is currently constructed) that can be refreshed for a very, very long time. Long enough to not be realistically considered a limiting factor in the likely events and timeline of the current conflict. Tanks, planes, stuff like that? Nope, sorry. Even picking through the boneyards and storage depots there is a hard limit of existing material. There is a very definitely finite limit of currently existing war hardware. It can be stretched, massaged, and even somewhat rebuilt on the fly with new stuff built along the way. Those actions extend that finite limit, but then that runs up against limits of domestic industry. It is not an infinite extension. There is a limit and it is being reached, quickly. Not as quickly as sanity and humanity would like, I fully agree with that. But it is there.
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Feb 19, 2023 04:01
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Baudolino posted:Failing to rebuild Ukraine after the war is the same as letting them be defeated. Europe will gain nothing if we can`t stabilize Ukraine and build it up. It will be extremely expensive. But letting Ukraine become a chaotic failed state will be much more expensive in the long run. I'd also add that it was uncertain whether Germany or Japan would recover in full after WWII. I'm not saying Ukraine will become the next Germany, but the doom and gloom failed state narrative is an extreme viewpoint. What is more, as Timothy Snyder alluded to in his lecture series, conflicts like this forge or reinforce political identities. Ukraine has been democratizing since Maidan, and so the Soviet past does not necessarily inform us of the post-war future. There is reason to be optimistic for the future after the war and reason to believe that a post-war Ukraine will align well with the EU.
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Feb 19, 2023 08:08
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