The US will lose WW3

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atelier morgan: Mar 11, 2003; super-scientific, ultra-gay; Lipstick Apathy

Weka posted:

China generally prefers shorter ranged subs, they have 9 nuclear powered attack subs, 3 of which are in reserve.

that's enough to close suez and panama

# ? Feb 19, 2023 00:26

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# ? May 23, 2024 20:06

Smythe: Oct 12, 2003

A Russian troll farm posted:

i expected GLA troops to start swarming the launch site juuust before liftoff

hell yes

# ? Feb 19, 2023 00:30

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

atelier morgan posted:

the rest of food production is not nearly as well resolved, and most of the tonnage is corn and soybeans mostly for animal feed because chinese eat baozi like americans eat hamburgers, sustainability be damned

Admittedly, China also produced a ton of corn and yields have been improving over the years, they obviously still import to a degree but it probably couldn't force a true lifestyle change if they couldn't access corn that was specifically shipped.

# ? Feb 19, 2023 00:59

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Weka posted:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports-of-manufactured-goods
code:
United States Imports by Country 		USD Million in December 22

EU			48824.59 	
Euro Area 	42857.30 	
China 		37302.52 	
Mexico 		36054.33 	
Canada 		32890.15 	
Germany 	14289.90 	
Japan 		13477.54 	
S. Korea 	9837.82 	
Vietnam 	8543.10 	
Taiwan 		7100.30 	
China generally prefers shorter ranged subs, they have 9 nuclear powered attack subs, 3 of which are in reserve.

EU is higher than I remember. and Mexico is higher too I didn�t realize Mexico was almost at parity with China on exports to the US. wow that�s actually changed quite a bit since the last time I looked.

# ? Feb 19, 2023 01:07

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Ardennes posted:

Admittedly, China also produced a ton of corn and yields have been improving over the years, they obviously still import to a degree but it probably couldn't force a true lifestyle change if they couldn't access corn that was specifically shipped.

it�s a lot of commodity soy Ardennes. I stopped doing grain just before covid but just Seattle Tacoma was close to a hundred vessels a year.

it�s like 60% of the traded soy for the whole world and like 50% of the soy the US exports.

https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/record-us-fy-2022-agricultural-exports-china

# ? Feb 19, 2023 01:18

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

# ? Feb 19, 2023 08:32

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Bar Ran Dun posted:

it�s a lot of commodity soy Ardennes. I stopped doing grain just before covid but just Seattle Tacoma was close to a hundred vessels a year.

it�s like 60% of the traded soy for the whole world and like 50% of the soy the US exports.

https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/record-us-fy-2022-agricultural-exports-china

I am talking about Chinese supply lines, corn specifically they are actually good on along with rice/wheat. They are still importing soy but it is also only one form of calorie input.

# ? Feb 19, 2023 10:32

Cerebral Bore: Apr 21, 2010; Fun Shoe

china also has the cheat code of having a government that can actually do poo poo, so if it became necessary they could just roll their massive resources into agricultural expansion and diversification to get through a supply crunch

# ? Feb 19, 2023 10:42

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Ardennes posted:

I am talking about Chinese supply lines, corn specifically they are actually good on along with rice/wheat. They are still importing soy but it is also only one form of calorie input.

yes if one only looks at the grain they consume as grain one can pretend away all the commodity grain they import as soy.

literal mountains of it.

# ? Feb 19, 2023 17:52

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Bar Ran Dun posted:

yes if one only looks at the grain they consume as grain one can pretend away all the commodity grain they import as soy.

literal mountains of it.

That was the point, they are switching to domestic grain production.

# ? Feb 19, 2023 22:31

atelier morgan: Mar 11, 2003; super-scientific, ultra-gay; Lipstick Apathy

Cerebral Bore posted:

china also has the cheat code of having a government that can actually do poo poo, so if it became necessary they could just roll their massive resources into agricultural expansion and diversification to get through a supply crunch

they're already doing that and have been for years, which is precisely why they supply their own wheat and rice now

the problem is that self sufficiency in animal feed (which is what the soy/corn imports are for) is around ten times as hard

# ? Feb 19, 2023 22:42

Slavvy: Dec 11, 2012

I think if it came to a ww3 scenario the Chinese government would win out over people's need for meat

# ? Feb 19, 2023 23:05

indigi: Jul 20, 2004; Can't post for 24 hours!

they'd have one final meat festival then implement strict baozi allowances

# ? Feb 19, 2023 23:06

Centrist Committee: Aug 6, 2019

Slavvy posted:

I think if it came to a ww3 scenario the Chinese government would win out over people's need for meat

no, because the social basis that allowed for rationing and planned production here in the us during ww2 no linger exists, therefore by the power of SYSTEMS THINKING, it cannot exist anywhere else. checkmate!

# ? Feb 19, 2023 23:10

Slavvy: Dec 11, 2012

They wouldn't even need to ban meat they could just ration it down to a level where they can produce enough indigenously

Like seriously, most of the 'problems' that countries supposedly face are entirely just made up bullshit you can get around by just choosing to do poo poo, provided you have the autonomy to have the choice in the first place which the vast majority of countries don't.

# ? Feb 19, 2023 23:13

Trabisnikof: Dec 24, 2005

Centrist Committee posted:

no, because the social basis that allowed for rationing and planned production here in the us during ww2 no linger exists, therefore by the power of SYSTEMS THINKING, it cannot exist anywhere else. checkmate!

I think the real circular logic here is more that American never does anything wrong so therefore if there is a war between the US and China it is because china does it unprovoked and with no rationale. This is a starting assumption for most US analysis.

So China would face massive social upheaval because their citizens don�t want to give up meat, don�t want to die for nothing etc since it�s impossible for China to justify war because America can do no wrong.

This is of course insane, but when your ideology prevents any analysis where America could theoretically look like the bad guy, it limits your sane answers.

# ? Feb 20, 2023 00:20

KomradeX: Oct 29, 2011

Cerebral Bore posted:

i'm about 100% sure that china is far less vulnerable to disruptions in seaborne trade than the us is, which seems to be the important part here

Its like people have completely forgotten that a.few weeks of trade distribution between the US and China nearly collapsed the US economy in 2020. Now imagine what cessation of all imports from China will do

# ? Feb 20, 2023 00:23

Weka: May 5, 2019; Can't post for 7 hours!

atelier morgan posted:

that's enough to close suez and panama

As recent events show, you don't need a submarine to close a canal.

Bar Ran Dun posted:

EU is higher than I remember. and Mexico is higher too I didn�t realize Mexico was almost at parity with China on exports to the US. wow that�s actually changed quite a bit since the last time I looked.

Manufactured goods only in case you missed it.

# ? Feb 20, 2023 01:27

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Ardennes posted:

That was the point, they are switching to domestic grain production.

Ardennes world wide consumption by people is a bit less than half of all grain consumption. they about meet their human consumption needs not their feed needs.

Slavvy posted:

I think if it came to a ww3 scenario the Chinese government would win out over people's need for meat

they take it pretty seriously. it�s one of reasons their fishing fleets are so aggressive. unless we are in WW3 I don�t see it being tolerated. but yes they�d manage in a war.

# ? Feb 20, 2023 01:49

KomradeX: Oct 29, 2011

All this is.predicated upon the idea that World War 3 happens and organized human society survives it, along with the assumption that the first major US lost wont be responded with sealth bombers being used for the orginal purpose. Could Chinese society survive the days or weeks of conflict till that happened, probably. Could American Society? Not a loving chance we couldn't deal with COVID it'll fall apart the second the treats stop

# ? Feb 20, 2023 02:07

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Bar Ran Dun posted:

Ardennes world wide consumption by people is a bit less than half of all grain consumption. they about meet their human consumption needs not their feed needs.

The data shows that they are mostly meeting their total needs already. They obviously still import some agricultural products (and export some as well), but the vast majority of grain and other staples in China are produced domestically including meat.

# ? Feb 20, 2023 02:15

Centrist Committee: Aug 6, 2019

Bar Ran Dun posted:

they take it pretty seriously. it�s one of reasons their fishing fleets are so aggressive. unless we are in WW3 I don�t see it being tolerated. but yes they�d manage in a war.

thinking about your use of �we� and �they� here and how that might affect your analysis

# ? Feb 20, 2023 02:24

Frosted Flake: Sep 13, 2011; Semper Shitpost Ubique

Accepting the premise that the world needs to end if China dares reclaim a rogue province, or that doing so is somehow �aggression� on their part, is kinda funny ngl.

# ? Feb 20, 2023 03:44

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Russia deploys ships armed with tactical nuclear weapons for first time in 30 years, says Norway

# ? Feb 20, 2023 03:50

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Ardennes posted:

The data shows that they are mostly meeting their total needs already. They obviously still import some agricultural products (and export some as well), but the vast majority of grain and other staples in China are produced domestically including meat.

�some agricultural product� = 50% of the worlds internationally traded grain.

�needs� here means just enough for everybody to eat grain without meat.

Centrist Committee posted:

thinking about your use of �we� and �they� here and how that might affect your analysis

oh of course it does. but my preference would be for a closer US and China and a status quo on Taiwan.

Frosted Flake posted:

Accepting the premise that the world needs to end if China dares reclaim a rogue province, or that doing so is somehow �aggression� on their part, is kinda funny ngl.

I don�t think it needs to. Just that it probably would. It might not, I mean the TRA and the Six assurances don�t really actually commit us to much at all. I don�t think China will do it anyway, atleast not unless something fundamentally changes.

# ? Feb 20, 2023 04:38

Frosted Flake: Sep 13, 2011; Semper Shitpost Ubique

It�s their province! They�re supposed to be there!

# ? Feb 20, 2023 05:32

E4C85D38: Feb 7, 2010; Doesn't that thing only
hold six rounds...?

if marine shipping is so important domestically why can't the ACE keep the loving intracoastal waterway dredged out?

this isn't a serious post but i just want to see someone try to push a handysize down the entire ICW because it would be funny

e: as comparison for the uninitiated, the ICW has an average depth of like ten feet if you count generously and catch the ACE on a good day, a handysize bulk carrier draws closer to ten meters

E4C85D38 has issued a correction as of 07:04 on Feb 20, 2023

# ? Feb 20, 2023 06:59

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

E4C85D38 posted:

if marine shipping is so important domestically why can't the ACE keep the loving intracoastal waterway dredged out?

this isn't a serious post but i just want to see someone try to push a handysize down the entire ICW because it would be funny

e: as comparison for the uninitiated, the ICW has an average depth of like ten feet if you count generously and catch the ACE on a good day, a handysize bulk carrier draws closer to ten meters

ICW is mostly barge traffic but,

because we�re loving terrible. we also can�t keep the locks dredged on the lakes, and can�t keep the Mississippi taken care of properly, and we don�t dredge enough in general, or maintain our terminals, or really improve our terminals in anyway, or�

Frosted Flake posted:

It�s their province! They�re supposed to be there!

The civil war was over seventy years ago now. That�s an awful lot of time for things to change.

# ? Feb 20, 2023 07:35

Centrist Committee: Aug 6, 2019

Bar Ran Dun posted:

The civil war was over seventy years ago now. That�s an awful lot of time for things to change.

it�s official us policy

# ? Feb 20, 2023 07:37

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

Centrist Committee posted:

it�s official us policy

I�ve seen US policy characterized as: �sub-sovereign foreign state equivalent�

# ? Feb 20, 2023 07:51

Centrist Committee: Aug 6, 2019

Bar Ran Dun posted:

I�ve seen US policy characterized as: �sub-sovereign foreign state equivalent�

im talking about the shanghai communique and subsequent affirmations of the one china policy. I know in practice that american treaties have been worthless lies since the indian wars. what im wondering is why the language of the imperial bureaucracy matters to you

# ? Feb 20, 2023 08:11

Slavvy: Dec 11, 2012

Nationalism is a brain ruining disease

# ? Feb 20, 2023 09:39

The Demilich: Apr 9, 2020; The First Rites of Men Were Mortuary, the First Altars Tombs.

Only the ignorant or morally repugnant could ever be proud of America.

# ? Feb 20, 2023 09:49

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

I've been checking out the reports of the Munich security conference

The Canadians are really hyped up to fight lately:

Allyship ratings of other countries:

Change by arbitrary group of nation:

🌐

# ? Feb 20, 2023 10:26

Cerebral Bore: Apr 21, 2010; Fun Shoe

Centrist Committee posted:

im talking about the shanghai communique and subsequent affirmations of the one china policy. I know in practice that american treaties have been worthless lies since the indian wars. what im wondering is why the language of the imperial bureaucracy matters to you

more to the point, the roc government also agrees that taiwan is part of china. its in their constitution, even

# ? Feb 20, 2023 10:53

Centrist Committee: Aug 6, 2019

mawarannahr posted:

the gently caress is this graphic lol

# ? Feb 20, 2023 16:41

Frosted Flake: Sep 13, 2011; Semper Shitpost Ubique

mawarannahr posted:

I've been checking out the reports of the Munich security conference

The Canadians are really hyped up to fight lately

I can't talk about my work or anything, but there's not a workable plan to get a 32 gun artillery Regiment into theatre, that I'm aware of. By that I mean, nothing exists or has been rehearsed to the same degree as the plan to get 2 CMBG and all their guns to Tromso. That plan has existed since the Cold War, is exercised annually both on the Canadian side and in Norway, and there are mountains of planning documents for it at all levels. Similarly, the plan to reinforce 4 CMBG in Lahr, fight their battle, and build up 1st Canadian Division for a Warsaw Pact drive on Western Europe was developed over 20 years and rehearsed and refined continuously until the bases closed in 1995.

Which isn't to dispute that there might be high level excitement for it, policy discussions or whatever, I have no idea. I'm just saying that at least in the tiny sliver of this I have awareness of, nobody has turned that into a plan, a doctrine, an exercise. We've landed a few infantry companies on American LCAC during RIMPAC, and they flew to Hawaii to get there. No RCN convoy escorting, well, what? BC Ferries? No rail transfer to west coast ports of embarkation (Historically, not our finest hour, incidentally). No road marches even from Shilo to Edmonton. I can't remember the last time the RCN transferred more than a ship or two from Halifax to Esquimalt, and presumably we'd have to transfer them all for The Big One in Pacific waters.

It's just that signalling support for a military confrontation without any of the planning, buildup of forces, training, whatever, it seems like paying lip service to the Americans, and not a real plan to do much more than turn over control of west coast naval forces to the relevant American command, and that's about it.

So, I don't doubt that the Canadian government is signalling enthusiasm to the Yanks, I'm just observing that they haven't decided to turn any of that into something approaching a plan to fight. Which, ultimately, is probably a good thing, right?

ee: Generally, we have to keep account of the structure, doctrine and tactics of Russian artillery units, their radar and communication equipment and signatures, incorporate elements of that into the OPFOR for large scale annual exercises, I've not been asked to do something like that for the PLA. I would expect a shift in exercises to simulating the PLA as a bare minimum preparation for fighting them, if that was a serious objective of the government. But, you never know, maybe that email comes in tomorrow or something.

Frosted Flake has issued a correction as of 17:04 on Feb 20, 2023

# ? Feb 20, 2023 16:59