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Shogeton posted:All of this was just an excuse for Biden to use trains again. Air force one being accidentally shot down by jumpy Ukrainian air defenses seems far more likely to be a hazard than anything the Russians would do. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 20, 2023 16:39
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Paladinus posted:But now that Belarusian state propaganda almost exclusively amplifies Russia's imperial narratives as the direct result of Russia exercising its imperial ambitions over Ukraine and Belarus, it's just bound to cause controversy. He could have made the same point without the comparison, it was just lazy and unnecessary, although I get that after 2 years in prison he might not be completely in touch with the discourse. I think it’s generally worded poorly enough to set people up for criticising for it. The piece overall is supposed to be a mea culpa of Russian liberalism, basically, and then for some reason it swerves into “is Russia imperialist? No, our colony sucks too”, which is just weak writing on top of everything else you could call out here. That said, I think you really undersell Svetov when saying that he’s simply crazy, and predicting his reaction is a fool’s errand. For everyone’s context, he’s one of the more prominent libertarians in Russia - a home-schooled guy whose loaded parents had sent him into one of those billionaire children tutoring schools for like a year or two, before he returned to home-schooling. To say that he can be baffling is to say nothing.
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Feb 20, 2023 16:42
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Chalks posted:I guess the US is pretty confident Russia can't launch a missile attack at short notice, or maybe they just know they can't aim for poo poo. No, it's they're confident they won't. If Russia assassinates Biden it shows they're actually not rational actors, they're literally just run by dumbshits in a race to a kakistocracy. I'm sure it'd feel pretty good in the Kremlin for about two weeks before the real battlefield humiliations begin. Why create a martyr of your greatest enemy?
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Feb 20, 2023 16:46
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Nelson Mandingo posted:No, it's they're confident they won't. If Russia assassinates Biden it shows they're actually not rational actors, they're literally just run by dumbshits in a race to a kakistocracy. I'm sure it'd feel pretty good in the Kremlin for about two weeks before the real battlefield humiliations begin. Why create a martyr of your greatest enemy? Qasem Soleimani, is that you?
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Feb 20, 2023 16:57
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Electric Wrigglies posted:Qasem Soleimani, is that you? There's a pretty big gulf between that and assassinating the head of the executive branch of a country.
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Feb 20, 2023 17:02
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cinci zoo sniper posted:That said, I think you really undersell Svetov when saying that he’s simply crazy, and predicting his reaction is a fool’s errand. For everyone’s context, he’s one of the more prominent libertarians in Russia - a home-schooled guy whose loaded parents had sent him into one of those billionaire children tutoring schools for like a year or two, before he returned to home-schooling. To say that he can be baffling is to say nothing. Russian libertarianism is weird in general, and it's not actually surprising that Svetov is the de facto face of it. That he is relatively popular outside of his core audience of similarly crazy libertarians is what's strange to me. I'll have to blame anonymous imageboards for that one.
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Feb 20, 2023 17:02
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A more detailed breakdown of the trip, via the Washington Post's live updates this time:quote:President Biden’s arrival in Kyiv, Ukraine, surprised all but a small handful of officials and journalists who were clued in to the trip before it happened. Here is what we know so far about how the trip unfolded, based on reports from the journalists traveling with him and statements from White House officials. It's weird, I'm pretty sure I remember reading about him taking a train from Poland but these and other updates don't mention it, just jumping from Air Force One departing Andrews and him arriving in Kyiv. I'm guessing it's just that no details have been "officially" shared of that part of the trip.
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Feb 20, 2023 17:04
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Paladinus posted:Russian libertarianism is weird in general, and it's not actually surprising that Svetov is the de facto face of it. That he is relatively popular outside of his core audience of similarly crazy libertarians is what's strange to me. I'll have to blame anonymous imageboards for that one. Eh, toss my vote in on that too. His 2ch power ranking should be quite good, if you imagine a particularly cursed take on Forbes’s “40 under 40”.
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Feb 20, 2023 17:06
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Moon Slayer posted:A more detailed breakdown of the trip, via the Washington Post's live updates this time: The FT summary I posted reports Biden taking an overnight train to Kyiv, which arrived at 8am today.
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Feb 20, 2023 17:08
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Brown Moses posted:Navalny came out with a 15 point political platform, which includes recognising Ukraine’s 1991 borders (including Crimea), and reparations for Ukraine Remind me, how relevant is Navalny in Russia these days? I understand that he's one of the main opposition figures but how much does that actually count for, all things considered?
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Feb 20, 2023 17:16
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Confirming the perhaps questioned recently, Zelenskyy says that Ukrainian forces do not pursue holding Bakhmut at all costs, and are broadly just biding their time until they work out their next counterattack. https://censor.net/ru/news/3400819/ukrainskie_voyiska_budut_oboronyat_bahmut_poka_eto_budet_razumno_zelenskiyiTomn posted:Remind me, how relevant is Navalny in Russia these days? I understand that he's one of the main opposition figures but how much does that actually count for, all things considered? He’s the only opposition personality that could qualify for a figure. Putin is thorough at home, if nothing else.
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Feb 20, 2023 17:30
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Speaking of imperialism. Another NGO has been declared as undesired in Russia. This time it's Free Nations League, whose focus is on the right of minority regions for self-determination. They specifically advocate on behalf of Asian minorities (like Buryats, Tartars, Bashkirs, etc.), but also, somewhat unexpectedly, Cossacks and Ingrians. They opened their first office in Russia only a year ago, and their social media numbers are pretty small, and I don't think there were any major news about them before their ban. Considering the disproportionate amount of minorities drafted in the Russian army, makes sense why they would be targeted by the government. They also bring up some valid concerns about representation in discussions about Russia' post-Putin future, so hopefully the ban will at least get some eyes on the issue.
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Feb 20, 2023 17:31
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Tomn posted:Remind me, how relevant is Navalny in Russia these days? I understand that he's one of the main opposition figures but how much does that actually count for, all things considered? When he returned after poisoning straight to jail he managed to bring out sizable crowds to protest in major cities. His network of regional political hubs was very effective (which is why it was dismantled by the state with extreme prejudice), so if left into politics without obstacles, his party would easily beat all other opposition parties with the exception of CPRF probably, especially with the Mandela-like cred of suffering in prison. But it is a bit clancychatty wishful thinking - with the super tight grip on media and zero tolerance to any non-sanctioned political figures (even genuine populists from seemingly controlled opposition like Rashkin and Furgal) a vision of proper competetive politics in Russia is complete terra incognita right now.
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Feb 20, 2023 17:37
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Electric Wrigglies posted:Qasem Soleimani, is that you? That'd be more like a division chief responsible for overseas awful murdery ops at the CIA getting blown up overseas, during a covert assignment. Which, while unnecessarily provocative, even Iran understood. Hence the restrained response and the uh... rather dim view a lot of Iranians have of him.
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Feb 20, 2023 17:47
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Ominous posters appeared in Russian streets ahead of Putin's long-postponed annual official address. Watch and listen  Russian borders don't end anywhere* Not clear who's responsible for those, might be some local initiative, but it's unprecedented levels of hype for the occasion. There are even countdowns on TV, like it's Oscars or Olympics. *Reference to when Putin quizzed a boy at a Geographical Society event about Russian borders, and made a joke (or not, in retrospect) when the boy started answering seriously. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyrdh-otOy8)
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Feb 20, 2023 18:33
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Paladinus posted:Ominous posters appeared in Russian streets ahead of Putin's long-postponed annual official address. I'm pretty sure there's been countdowns in Russia before when Putin was about to give a speech
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Feb 20, 2023 18:43
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Paladinus posted:Ominous posters appeared in Russian streets ahead of Putin's long-postponed annual official address. Those are fake, Russian journalists have checked it https://t.me/faridaily24/799
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Feb 20, 2023 18:49
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Willo567 posted:I'm pretty sure there's been countdowns in Russia before when Putin was about to give a speech Can't find anything to confirm it. But maybe people back then didn't pay too much attention to it in general, so a countdown didn't look like anything out of the ordinary. There definitely weren't any countdowns to Putin's pre-war addresses about LDNR. fatherboxx posted:Those are fake, Russian journalists have checked it  Psyops got me this time!
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Feb 20, 2023 18:53
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Luigi's Discount Porn Bin posted:Blinken is saying that China might start arming Russia's war machine in Ukraine, which would certainly go a long way toward solving any materiel troubles they're having. Seems a good way for China to seriously alienate europe and drive them into closer cooperation with the US.
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Feb 20, 2023 19:17
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Today's "treats" Biden brought on his Kyiv trip:quote:Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS); This is drawdown, meaning that it's shipping as soon as U.S. army warehouses get the fine print.
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Feb 20, 2023 19:17
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Some more train talk from the NYT:quote:KYIV, Ukraine — The high-profile travelers are served tea in cups that rattle in their metal holders as the train wagons speed through the Ukrainian countryside. A journey that might take an hour or less by plane stretches to an entire day or night.
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Feb 20, 2023 19:50
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fatherboxx posted:Remember when some people expected this guy to become a next Minister of Defense or a warlord king and now he is relegated to publicly crying about being cut off from supplies. Isn't this just another Kremlin power struggle angle though? Woe is me, my troops aren't performing well because my unnamed political enemy is denying them resources, watch me throw away my pride for my boys. It doesn't strike me as too different from all the other blame game stuff going on prior. Wonder how much of it is just redirecting because Bakhmut hasn't fallen yet. All successes are because of Wagner, all failures because of incompetent meddling by the MOD.
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Feb 20, 2023 20:18
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fatherboxx posted:Remember when some people expected this guy to become a next Minister of Defense or a warlord king and now he is relegated to publicly crying about being cut off from supplies. I'm not convinced it's not all staged. You need a guy like Prigozhin to make sure that people who question how war is going don't start questioning why the war is going in the first place. Note how Putin's name is suspiciously absent from his criticism and from the videos his troops record. It's always MOD and generals that don't let them win, never the big boss himself.
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Feb 20, 2023 21:02
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Yeah, I am not buying it. Prigozhin and Wagner were performing too well for themselves so they were slapped down to take the blame by the guys actually running the show so that the glorious Russian Army could take the lead and capitalize on their successes. Which then failed to materialize because of all the infighting and stuff. If he weren't sufficiently loyal to Putin he would have swam out the 8th floor window the moment his power struggle with Shoigu failed.
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Feb 20, 2023 21:53
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Der Kyhe posted:If he weren't sufficiently loyal to Putin he would have swam out the 8th floor window the moment his power struggle with Shoigu failed. It's not entirely impossible that Prigozhin is either somewhat too powerful to window and that he may know of perhaps too many skeletons in Putin's closet (due to very likely personally putting them there) for Putin to move against him more directly, but he can still likely be gradually sidelined instead.
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Feb 20, 2023 22:30
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For those curious like I was: https://twitter.com/mikememoli/status/1627769549616566278?t=9LbV01qCbD6K9nRvMT4zzg&s=19
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Feb 20, 2023 22:43
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Moon Slayer posted:For those curious like I was: Apparently the POTUS flew in a 757 variant rather than the more recognisable 747 he usually travels in. I wonder if he used the Air Force One callsign or opted to be more incognito
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Feb 20, 2023 22:58
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Air Force One is the callsign for whatever aircraft POTUS is on, even if it's just a Cessna. Air traffic control knows it as Special Air Mission ### based on the aircraft though.
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Feb 20, 2023 23:01
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Moon Slayer posted:Air Force One is the callsign for whatever aircraft POTUS is on, even if it's just a Cessna. Air traffic control knows it as Special Air Mission ### based on the aircraft though. The question is if they adhered to that rule this time. It seems they didn’t and despite Biden being on board, the US-Germany and Germany-Poland flights did not use the “Air Force One” callsign.
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Feb 21, 2023 00:04
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1627698064164065285 Allegedly this is an intercept of Wagner comms. This whole conversation gives off big Monty Python "No, YOU stay 'ERE and make sure 'E doesn't LEAVE!" vibes.
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Feb 21, 2023 00:16
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Moon Slayer posted:For those curious like I was: there's no better time to depart Poland than 9:37 PM
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Feb 21, 2023 00:30
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Szarrukin posted:there's no better time to depart Poland than 9:37 PM
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Feb 21, 2023 01:21
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Szarrukin posted:there's no better time to depart Poland than 9:37 PM Can you arrive to Odesa at 7:40 like that? Seems plausible.
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Feb 21, 2023 01:27
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Yes https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/14/former-afghan-president-karzai-calls-on-us-not-to-withhold-funds
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Feb 21, 2023 02:14
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I mean... didn't everyone already expect this? Is it really breaking news? https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1627805927502913542
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Feb 21, 2023 03:07
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Charlz Guybon posted:I mean... didn't everyone already expect this? Is it really breaking news? Yeah, I thought that was already the plan that was in motion. The Union with Russia stuff was obviously just a Russian takeover and annexation.
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Feb 21, 2023 03:09
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Charlz Guybon posted:I mean... didn't everyone already expect this? Is it really breaking news? That was my first reaction, but reading through there are some details that are surprising, like the way it wanted to subvert societal/communal structures rather than just relying on Luka. In some way it makes me wonder about whether it's actually accurate since it shows more attentiveness to people than, well, the direct subject of the thread.
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Feb 21, 2023 03:16
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quote:Despite its closeness to Russia, Lukashenko has always emphasized the independence of the country in the past. He and Putin don't like each other very much. Either is waiting for the other to die.  Also Luka hosed up by allowing Russia to use its territory in the initial invasion. Probably read too many RAND reports. So now both of his testicles are in Putin's drawer and he can't "multi vector" anymore. Charlotte Hornets fucked around with this message at 04:09 on Feb 21, 2023 |
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Feb 21, 2023 04:05
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I wonder if Lukas resistance to throwing his own troops into the war is making Putin want to just say the hell with it and annex the country.
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Feb 21, 2023 04:41
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With Russia so committed to the war in Ukraine, it seems like if anything now would be the ideal time to assert more independence? Russia doesn't exactly have a lot of manpower to spare.
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Feb 21, 2023 06:12
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