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Cicero posted:With Russia so committed to the war in Ukraine, it seems like if anything now would be the ideal time to assert more independence? Russia doesn't exactly have a lot of manpower to spare. By whom? Batka has jailed or banished eveyone who could challenge the status quo, and he is totally dependent on Vova.
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Feb 21, 2023 06:56
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Charliegrs posted:I wonder if Lukas resistance to throwing his own troops into the war is making Putin want to just say the hell with it and annex the country. I think it's less Luka being resistant and more the army itself. If he tried to push it he's more likely to get coup'd than succeed.
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Feb 21, 2023 07:13
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The Lone Badger posted:I think it's less Luka being resistant and more the army itself. If he tried to push it he's more likely to get coup'd than succeed. but that would also likely happen with annexation too, no? i don't really have the pulse on belarus at the moment, but trying to absorb one country which would rather be separate while you're fighting a hugely costly war with another one seems like a recipe for two insurgencies.
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Feb 21, 2023 07:20
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NoiseAnnoys posted:but that would also likely happen with annexation too, no? i don't really have the pulse on belarus at the moment, but trying to absorb one country which would rather be separate while you're fighting a hugely costly war with another one seems like a recipe for two insurgencies. I don't think there are any big events planned for as long as the war continues. This is why it was important to defeat opposition parties in Russia and Belarus before it all started. If everything had gone according to the invasion plan, well, the situation would be very different in Belarus now (and Transnistria, and Moldova...).
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Feb 21, 2023 07:28
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Nenonen posted:I don't think there are any big events planned for as long as the war continues. This is why it was important to defeat opposition parties in Russia and Belarus before it all started. If everything had gone according to the invasion plan, well, the situation would be very different in Belarus now (and Transnistria, and Moldova...). that's certainly true. had that decapitation strike worked things would have gone much differently.
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Feb 21, 2023 07:44
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Charlz Guybon posted:I mean... didn't everyone already expect this? Is it really breaking news? Luka may get that rank of Russian Colonel after all. 
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Feb 21, 2023 08:05
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beer_war posted:Luka may get that rank of Russian Colonel after all. Minister in charge of window inspections
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Feb 21, 2023 08:08
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beer_war posted:Luka may get that rank of Russian Colonel after all. Or plank of Russian coroner.
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Feb 21, 2023 08:15
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Charlotte Hornets posted:
He hosed up when he decided that the right solution to being called out for stealing yet another election was to start killing and kidnapping random people. That was what gave the 2020–2021 protests enough energy to pose a credible threat to Lukashenko, and instead of taking the high way out to live in Switzerland as a retired billionaire, he chose to be bailed out by the Kremlin. Russia doesn't do charity, however – enter then 2021 Union State “upgrades” and the massive cash infusion. As you say, his regime is on a one-way street now, but I fear the de facto loss of sovereignty moment came in August 2020. Remembering those events does also make me wonder how much of his security detail these days is FSB.
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Feb 21, 2023 08:19
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Putin's address to Federal Assembly started and so far it seems it's just the usual blaming the West for the war and ranting about gay marriages https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1627960483801100289
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Feb 21, 2023 10:39
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Yeah, my impression is that it's more of the same so far, grandpa huffing his farts. So much for hype and the dank fake billboard memes. Seems that February is the month of summaries, with +2 to weekly production in all
cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 10:49 on Feb 21, 2023 |
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Feb 21, 2023 10:44
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Okay, I'm watching the full thing now for my lunch break, instead of disjoint clips, and this is incredibly weak lol. My man losing a war in Ukraine and his big annual presser is "OSCE said they care about the poors. Those were lies!!"
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Feb 21, 2023 11:19
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I mean this is peak fart huffing, literally the Tankie narration, but repeated by the big boy. Still working on spheres of influence logic, still thinking that Ukraine has no autonomy in this setting, he is not showing any sigs of self-reflection. Ah poo poo boys we're in for the long haul.
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Feb 21, 2023 11:30
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Is it just me or is Russia Trump a lot less eloquent than he used to be? I remember Putin being somewhat witty, even, but I'm not getting that impression now. But regardless, it really looks like he's believing his own bullshit.
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Feb 21, 2023 12:03
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https://twitter.com/sirfloriank/status/1627974935615348736?t=VWkw--dK8S3WnWtYReIIoA&s=19 On one hand, you have to listen to unhinged fascist ranting about good old glory days and gays coming after your children. On the other hand, at least booze is free at the reception afterwards.
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Feb 21, 2023 12:08
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Antigravitas posted:Is it just me or is Russia Trump a lot less eloquent than he used to be? I remember Putin being somewhat witty, even, but I'm not getting that impression now. Putin liked to do an odd wisecrack or joke, but he's always been a pretty mediocre speaker.
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Feb 21, 2023 12:14
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So far I have read that according to Putin everything is fine, the economy is fine, the troops are fine, and we have lots of tanks and artillery left nothing to worry about. Oh, and we're suspending START.
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Feb 21, 2023 12:24
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Antigravitas posted:Is it just me or is Russia Trump a lot less eloquent than he used to be? I remember Putin being somewhat witty, even, but I'm not getting that impression now. Alchenar posted:Putin liked to do an odd wisecrack or joke, but he's always been a pretty mediocre speaker. Eh, I think he's been a fairly decent orator historically – awkward in live audiences, but good at serving a speech to an audience. And Antigravitas is onto something there, this one was a decidedly lower-energy speech, and he comes off a bit worn – quieter, misspeaking a bit more than you'd expect, and so on. I'm not sure if he just can't be arsed to keep up appearances, or if he's developing resistance to whatever stimulants kept him through playing Red Alert campaign IRL last year, but for the annual address to the Federal Assembly, in the present circumstances no less, this is a remarkably unremarkable speech.
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Feb 21, 2023 12:39
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Yeah, my impression is that it's more of the same so far, grandpa huffing his farts. So much for hype and the dank fake billboard memes. That FT article is great, really informative with well presented data.
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Feb 21, 2023 13:26
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The address was so devoid of anything meaningful, it feels like it harkens back to the good old days when Brezhnev would address the Communist Party Congress. I wonder why they had to postpone so much if the only topical thing in the entire speech was references to ongoing theological debates in the Church of England. What's interesting to me is how well Putin's rhetoric that is clearly aimed at 'the Global South' play there? Based on UN votes and proclamations, there hasn't been any huge shift in official policies of African and South American countries, but there isn't much coverage in the world news of how the war in Ukraine affected political and media landscapes in those countries. Is there an overview of that somewhere?
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Feb 21, 2023 14:21
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How Moscow bought a new sphere of influence on the cheap https://www.ft.com/content/0c459575-5c72-4558-821e-b495c9db9b6f
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Feb 21, 2023 14:26
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Antigravitas posted:How Moscow bought a new sphere of influence on the cheap Paywalled, any chance of an executive summary?
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Feb 21, 2023 14:32
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It's a very long-form article about exactly Paladinus' question. The FT paywall can usually be bypassed by putting the title into google verbatim and opening the link from there.
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Feb 21, 2023 14:34
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Antigravitas posted:It's a very long-form article about exactly Paladinus' question. To be precise, it's one of a 4-article series, where 3 of them address different parts of Paladinus's question, from an African perspective. Edit: https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1627970168923082752 I wonder if this is a long-expected scheduled visit, or an extension of the tantrum Meloni threw over the Macron-Scholz-Zelenskyy dinner at the Élysée. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 15:15 on Feb 21, 2023 |
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Feb 21, 2023 14:54
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:Paywalled, any chance of an executive summary? Internet archivers are our friends https://archive.is/Yh3FL
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Feb 21, 2023 15:19
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cinci zoo sniper posted:To be precise, it's one of a 4-article series, where 3 of them address different parts of Paladinus's question, from an African perspective. Great now when Putin says there are powerful Nazis in Ukraine he'll not be lying
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Feb 21, 2023 15:46
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Scratch Monkey posted:Great now when Putin says there are powerful Nazis in Ukraine he'll not be lying Given all the Russian generals getting blown up I'd say there have been powerful Nazis in Ukraine for about a year, minimum.
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Feb 21, 2023 15:59
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Agronox posted:Internet archivers are our friends Jasper Tin Neck posted:Paywalled, any chance of an executive summary? Just to be clear, all you gotta do is paste the url into archive.is and viola.
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Feb 21, 2023 16:53
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Does Putin call it a war now? Is that word not verboten anymore? Or is this a (mis)translation into English?
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Feb 21, 2023 17:23
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Boris Galerkin posted:Does Putin call it a war now? Is that word not verboten anymore? Or is this a (mis)translation into English?
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Feb 21, 2023 17:28
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Boris Galerkin posted:Does Putin call it a war now? Is that word not verboten anymore? Or is this a (mis)translation into English? The SMO is part of the larger war against the west. Which they started.
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Feb 21, 2023 17:31
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Boris Galerkin posted:Does Putin call it a war now? Is that word not verboten anymore? Or is this a (mis)translation into English? spankmeister posted:The SMO is part of the larger war against the west. Which they started. To be precise, according to him Russia wages no war against the west either. The west did just force Russia's hand to defend itself, for which Russia had to declare SMO as it is not a country that wages wars, you see.
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Feb 21, 2023 17:38
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Charlotte Hornets posted:
this was already basically the case after the 2020 elections. when major western powers are giving audiences to the would be government in exile and saying "they won the election and you should cede control", your prospects for improving relations with them are pretty clearly limited. they're now more limited, but whatever Antigravitas posted:Is it just me or is Russia Trump a lot less eloquent than he used to be? I remember Putin being somewhat witty, even, but I'm not getting that impression now. at least early on, Putin was mocked for being a very shy, hesitant speaker. old kukly episodes are a good example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myByD8UE2YY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcD13UvCRyc he did improve once he realized that presenting a confident tough guy image made him very popular with a lot of russians, and the intelligentsia that didn't care for all disliked him already anyway
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Feb 21, 2023 18:22
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The parents mentioned something about Luka being MIA for a few days. Any word on that online?
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Feb 21, 2023 20:19
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Warbadger posted:Given all the Russian generals getting blown up I'd say there have been powerful Nazis in Ukraine for about a year, minimum. Yes but now the first one has reach Kyiv.
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Feb 21, 2023 20:24
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Burns posted:The parents mentioned something about Luka being MIA for a few days. Any word on that online? He “disappeared” for like a whole day after meeting Putin on the 17th, Friday. Potato Force One was tracked flying from Moscow to Tver' on 18th, and yesterday (Monday) he was already running the government's business as usually. In other words, it was a weekend.
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Feb 21, 2023 20:35
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Any thoughts on the direction of the battle for Bakhmut? Looks like Russia got about 2/3 of the way to encirclement but started stalling out again in recent days. Any other views? Ukraine holding out in Bakhmut would be a crushing blow to Russia's "renewed" offensive.Boris Galerkin posted:Just to be clear, all you gotta do is paste the url into archive.is and viola. 
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Feb 21, 2023 21:47
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Vox Nihili posted:Any thoughts on the direction of the battle for Bakhmut? Looks like Russia got about 2/3 of the way to encirclement but started stalling out again in recent days. Any other views? Ukraine holding out in Bakhmut would be a crushing blow to Russia's "renewed" offensive. At some point they either have to counterattack to push back the lines or else withdraw from the city. A few weeks ago I would say they'd withdraw by the end of the month rather than waste offensive capability on strategically questionable objective, but if the Russians really do exhaust themselves, it is possible we see a limited counterattack to extend the battle into March/April. Should be pretty clear what is going to happen over the next week or so I think.
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Feb 21, 2023 21:50
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I think I've seen a lot of speculation that the Russians wanted to capture Bakhmut by 2/24 to mark the anniversary of the invasion, and my feeling is that the defenders are motivated to hold out until that date at least.
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Feb 21, 2023 21:57
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WarpedLichen posted:I think I've seen a lot of speculation that the Russians wanted to capture Bakhmut by 2/24 to mark the anniversary of the invasion, and my feeling is that the defenders are motivated to hold out until that date at least. Yeah, if I were a betting man, I would be at ease about bidding on “Ukraine shall control Bakhmut until February 25 Moscow morning news”. That said, Vox Nihili posted:Any thoughts on the direction of the battle for Bakhmut? Looks like Russia got about 2/3 of the way to encirclement but started stalling out again in recent days. Any other views? Ukraine holding out in Bakhmut would be a crushing blow to Russia's "renewed" offensive. UAF seems to have stabilized some lines of advance. CIT say that this was a reasonably precise map as of yesterday (some semi-random pro-Ukrainian TG is the source), and my gold arrows are the reported successful AFU counter-pushes.  Basically, the enemy is at the gates, but the high-density urban combat is not really there yet. Well, as high density as the pulverised Bakhmut can offer, anyway. Shaded areas with red highlight order are supposed to be contested, and the my pink circles show large industrial facilities, and the teal circle is a cooperative gardening zone/cottage village.
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Feb 21, 2023 22:21
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