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What is the most powerful flying bug?
This poll is closed.
🦋 15 3.71%
🦇 115 28.47%
🪰 12 2.97%
🐦 67 16.58%
dragonfly 94 23.27%
🦟 14 3.47%
🐝 87 21.53%
Total: 404 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Zeppelin Insanity posted:

Ukrainian media were reporting it as such dude. Spare me the googling and look it up yourself. I've had to look it up for a dozen people by now and it's tiring.

The Ukrainian side was usually much more positive about any agreement than the Russian side. From the Russian side, they were likely hoping that the "pressure" being placed on Ukraine eventually force better terms.

The issue is that the Russians couldn't sustain their presence in northern Ukraine indefinitely, they simply were too spread thin and once they pulled out, the leverage they had evaporated.

The big issue with Ukraine staying neutral and Russia keeping is pre-war control was that it really didn't fix the issue for the Russians. Ukraine was already neutral, and it was up to Ukraine's word they would stay as such. The Russians needed (and still need) permanent leverage, it is just the country of Ukraine has largely been destroyed in the process.

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Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

I don't think the Ukrainians would kill their own chief negotiator if a deal was a far off thing.

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer
i wonder if it was a perfect storm of fuckups that have made this conflict so bloody or if people really did want this drawn out slog

like, it could just be Russia loving up the Kyiv push that made Ukraine think they really could beat Russia right out of the country in a few weeks. But it could also have been Boris Johnson doing his best wormtongue impression. I don't know how much to attribute to callousness.

fanfic insert
Nov 4, 2009
how does ukraines constitution legally get changed?

isn't it common to have some sort of "two sets of governments divided by a general election must approve changes" in europe?

If Ukraine has the same then any neutrality clause would take at the very least 5-6 years to get rid off and would probably be very public. It's not a guarantee it'll stick but it's a public and delayed process to revoke it, essentially giving Russia time to prepare for war should it be revoked. Not to mention the necessary military buildup.

Like what else is there in international relations? Isn't it all just "it takes time to build a case for war" so everyone has time to prepare for it.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

just on the face of it i'd rank ukraine beating back the kiev offensive ahead of bojo's influence but who knows

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Ardennes posted:

The big issue with Ukraine staying neutral and Russia keeping is pre-war control was that it really didn't fix the issue for the Russians. Ukraine was already neutral, and it was up to Ukraine's word they would stay as such. The Russians needed (and still need) permanent leverage, it is just the country of Ukraine has largely been destroyed in the process.
The thing is that the poo poo deal makes everyone who calls the shots happy, everyone but the nazis.

Th politicians and the capitalists would just go back to their usual scams and grifts and keep siphoning money out of the country until the next time it exploded in unrest.

Zeppelin Insanity
Oct 28, 2009

Wahnsinn
Einfach
Wahnsinn

fanfic insert posted:

how does ukraines constitution legally get changed?

isn't it common to have some sort of "two sets of governments divided by a general election must approve changes" in europe?

If Ukraine has the same then any neutrality clause would take at the very least 5-6 years to get rid off and would probably be very public. It's not a guarantee it'll stick but it's a public and delayed process to revoke it, essentially giving Russia time to prepare for war should it be revoked. Not to mention the necessary military buildup.

Like what else is there in international relations? Isn't it all just "it takes time to build a case for war" so everyone has time to prepare for it.

I think the problem is that even if that clause gets put into the constitution that doesn't matter in the least. Since when do countries respect their constitutions, even without the argument that it was "signed under duress" and therefore invalid?

I think that would have worked prior to the war, but now you've had Ukrainian, German and French heads of state say they used a peace agreement as a ruse to build up for war. You've also had important figures from across the West state that their goal is the total destruction of the Russian state, with certain Ukrainians going as far as to claim that their goal is total genocide of Russians in Russia.

I have no idea what terms I would accept as Russia in 2023, short of ensuring such total destruction of the Ukrainian military that any buildup to war would take them a long, long time. There's also the fact that a long conflict is in Russia's favour at this point: their economy is growing slowly, but Europe's is disintegrating, the US is getting bored, and it really cannot be overstated how big of a deal the de-dollarization of international trade is.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

The ACW parallel also works in terms of how the Sectional Crisis in South Carolina was sort of like Maidan in that changes in the composition of the ruling class rapidly changed the political situation. A small group of Political people who literally saw Yankees as another race were put in charge, held all of the levers of civil and military power, and drove their nation off a cliff.

This was done over the grumblings of poor whites who increasingly deserted but otherwise had no power or recourse. Because their only power was to desert, the vast chunk of the population not onboard with the radical ideology just had to watch as the entire south was destroyed. This is why despite large segments of the population being Unionist, not Unionist movement asserted itself in the absence of federal troops, with the exception of West Virginia.

Incidentally, coal country without many links to the rest of their new “country”, who were not represented after the break from the North, whose election results they were at odds with. They appealed to federal troops and for the creation of a new state after they were attacked.

fanfic insert
Nov 4, 2009

Zeppelin Insanity posted:

I think the problem is that even if that clause gets put into the constitution that doesn't matter in the least. Since when do countries respect their constitutions, even without the argument that it was "signed under duress" and therefore invalid?

I think that would have worked prior to the war, but now you've had Ukrainian, German and French heads of state say they used a peace agreement as a ruse to build up for war. You've also had important figures from across the West state that their goal is the total destruction of the Russian state, with certain Ukrainians going as far as to claim that their goal is total genocide of Russians in Russia.

I have no idea what terms I would accept as Russia in 2023, short of ensuring such total destruction of the Ukrainian military that any buildup to war would take them a long, long time. There's also the fact that a long conflict is in Russia's favour at this point: their economy is growing slowly, but Europe's is disintegrating, the US is getting bored, and it really cannot be overstated how big of a deal the de-dollarization of international trade is.

Yeah I agree, but I can also see why the Russians might've thought it was more beneficial than a long war when they were negotiating. Using international agencies to monitor the situation etc would give them a pretext to complain and shift the blame on the US if they keep covertly arming Ukraine while entrenching themselves at home. Worst case they're back to the war but better prepared.

And also, what else is there? It's continued war for some hopeful future where the EU collapses but even then all we really would have to do is nationalize certain industries and we'd be good to go for world war 3. Only thing keeping us from recovering and doing proper development is the political will and Europe has a tendency to veer far right fairly easily, with the proper motivation(kill Russians) we could do anything. That or rely on liberal institutional pride to maybe extend to where the US collapses on it's own and China dominates the globe.

Second Hand Meat Mouth
Sep 12, 2001

Zeppelin Insanity posted:

Ukrainian media were reporting it as such dude.

lmfao

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Europe is not going to be allowed to nationalize industries that American shareholders are invested in lol. They can’t unring that bell and assert national interest contra US financial interests.

fanfic insert
Nov 4, 2009
I think they could make it happen if the deal is Nationalize a minimal amount of industries, whip the people into a war fervor, use Europeans as canon fodder to eventually dominate Russia. Russia is a lot more valuable than Europe in terms of natural resources and food production.

fanfic insert
Nov 4, 2009
Well it's Russia's lands and resources are much more valuable than European industries and people.

Comrade Koba
Jul 2, 2007

Zeppelin Insanity posted:

I think that would have worked prior to the war, but now you've had Ukrainian, German and French heads of state say they used a peace agreement as a ruse to build up for war.

yeah, i think this part cannot be overstated. why would russia (or anyone else for that matter) even want to listen to someone who loudly and proudly proclaims that they absolutely intend to gently caress you over?

Zeppelin Insanity posted:

I have no idea what terms I would accept as Russia in 2023, short of ensuring such total destruction of the Ukrainian military that any buildup to war would take them a long, long time.

the only thing i can imagine that could be even remotely acceptable to russia at this point is that whatever’s left of western ukraine ends up a UN-enforced DMZ. total demilitarization, ukraine doesn’t get to have armed forces at all.

Zeppelin Insanity
Oct 28, 2009

Wahnsinn
Einfach
Wahnsinn

I mean to a lib Ukrainian media is Truth, while even Respected Western Media saying "Ukraine was negotiating peace but Boris Johnson stopped the deal" tends to get labelled as Kremlin propaganda that accidentally got in Respected Media.

Ukrainian media cannot be trusted on most things but I think "we wanted peace until Boris Johnson told us not to" I can take from the horse's mouth.

fanfic insert posted:

I think they could make it happen if the deal is Nationalize a minimal amount of industries, whip the people into a war fervor, use Europeans as canon fodder to eventually dominate Russia. Russia is a lot more valuable than Europe in terms of natural resources and food production.

I think the US is too bored with Ukraine and too horny for China to force Europe to do that. It's possible but unlikely. Then again I thought America attacking Germany was unlikely and here we are.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019
Probation
Can't post for 8 hours!
Giorgio Melona ftw
https://twitter.com/flash_news_ua/status/1628118434474037258

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009
Misgendering the Italian PM…has the Ukraine media no decency whatsoever?!

Endman
May 18, 2010

That is not dead which can eternal lie, And with strange aeons even anime may die


The comedian president is still cosplaying as a soldier I see

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

euphronius posted:

I’m reading on Molkte the Eldar on this one.

huh i never knew Moltke was a member of the Ulthwe craftworlds from warhammer 40k thats crazy he mustve been a farseer

Tankbuster
Oct 1, 2021
well he did two JUST AS PLANNED invasions on austria and france.

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.
also Meloni is a fascist so its ok to misgender her sinces shes not even human in the first place

Danann
Aug 4, 2013

Regarde Aduck posted:

i wonder if it was a perfect storm of fuckups that have made this conflict so bloody or if people really did want this drawn out slog

like, it could just be Russia loving up the Kyiv push that made Ukraine think they really could beat Russia right out of the country in a few weeks. But it could also have been Boris Johnson doing his best wormtongue impression. I don't know how much to attribute to callousness.

Perfect storm of fuckups describes how Russia invaded with literally less soldiers than the guy they're invading while contemporaneously NATO writes a blank check for javelins/NLAWs/panzerfausts/etc. and stingers only to realize that Ukraine might need artillery months into the conflict.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Lostconfused posted:

The thing is that the poo poo deal makes everyone who calls the shots happy, everyone but the nazis.

Th politicians and the capitalists would just go back to their usual scams and grifts and keep siphoning money out of the country until the next time it exploded in unrest.

The situation was simply too unstable even beyond the Nazis, and I would say even beyond the US as well. One thing is simply Ukraine's European ambitions, even if they were remote, they would have potentially destablizing. The more Ukraine slowly crept toward Europe, the closer it would be to an eventual showdown.

Futanari Damacy
Oct 30, 2021

by sebmojo

euphronius posted:

you can’t really criticize people for realizing in retrospect a war didn’t happen like it was planned

That's why you have to criticize them in real time

BULBASAUR
Apr 6, 2009




Soiled Meat
those damned darvos m8

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

fanfic insert posted:

Yeah I agree, but I can also see why the Russians might've thought it was more beneficial than a long war when they were negotiating. Using international agencies to monitor the situation etc would give them a pretext to complain and shift the blame on the US if they keep covertly arming Ukraine while entrenching themselves at home. Worst case they're back to the war but better prepared.

And also, what else is there? It's continued war for some hopeful future where the EU collapses but even then all we really would have to do is nationalize certain industries and we'd be good to go for world war 3. Only thing keeping us from recovering and doing proper development is the political will and Europe has a tendency to veer far right fairly easily, with the proper motivation(kill Russians) we could do anything. That or rely on liberal institutional pride to maybe extend to where the US collapses on it's own and China dominates the globe.

Let's be honest, international organizations, especially ones based in the West aren't going to take Russia's side. Anyway, from the Russian side, they wouldn't know the full scale of Western capabilities at that point, and simply letting it side gives the West to get Ukraine's "poo poo together." Better to keep the artillery working while you have the edge and withdrawal more marginal areas if push comes to shove, they know the demographics of Ukraine and how many refugees are fleeing (this is cynical but its war).

Also, I think the EU is very very far away from getting ready for WW3 at this point and the "kill Russian" wave has crested at this point. I think the Russians figured this out as well.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Ardennes posted:

The Ukrainian side was usually much more positive about any agreement than the Russian side. From the Russian side, they were likely hoping that the "pressure" being placed on Ukraine eventually force better terms.
Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if Ukrainian media was overly optimistic about the kind of terms Russia was prepared to offer them. The Foreign Affairs article does say that such a deal was discussed in negotiations, but that's meaningless without political will from Moscow, and as many people in this thread has pointed out a deal that involves full withdrawal is clearly unacceptable to the Russian side (indeed, the rest of that article explains how Putin's real motivation was always to gain territory). Overall it seems extremely unlikely that Russia was secretly offering a much better deal while publicly always demanding further territorial concessions.

Endman
May 18, 2010

That is not dead which can eternal lie, And with strange aeons even anime may die


apropos of nothing, the desire of the Kremlin to ensure that all ethnic Russians are part of Russia reminds me a lot of the question of Slavic nationhood just prior to the First World War. One of the contributing factors to animosity between Imperial Russia and Austria-Hungary was the belief of Slavic Nationalists in Russia that there should be one big Slav Superstate and that Austria-Hungary should either relinquish its territory containing majority Slavic peoples or at the very least stop any further expansion into those Slavic majority territories it did not already control.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019
Probation
Can't post for 8 hours!

Majorian posted:

All right folks, it’s been fun modding this thread and cspam. But I’ve got a baby on the way and a new job, and I just don’t have the time, energy, or bandwidth to keep doing this effectively. On top of that it’s becoming increasingly clear that I’m out of step with what most of cspam’s users want. So it’s time for me to step down as a mod - probably past time, in fact. Thanks to everyone who made this a fun thread and forum to moderate. I hope this awful war ends soon.

May you all continue to be gay for Putin.

you should name your child after a poster

Comrade Koba
Jul 2, 2007

Endman posted:

one big Slav Superstate

huge-o-slavia

fits my needs
Jan 1, 2011

Grimey Drawer
ff did u go to this one

https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1628107292661907472?s=20

comedyblissoption
Mar 15, 2006

so you're saying they were deceivingly telling the western press russia was offering extremely favorable terms for withdrawal in '22 to make boris johnson scuttling the deal look more heroic?

Al!
Apr 2, 2010

:coolspot::coolspot::coolspot::coolspot::coolspot:

Majorian posted:

Misgendering the Italian PM…has the Ukraine media no decency whatsoever?!

bunga bunga

comedyblissoption
Mar 15, 2006

Endman posted:

apropos of nothing, the desire of the Kremlin to ensure that all ethnic Russians are part of Russia reminds me a lot of the question of Slavic nationhood just prior to the First World War. One of the contributing factors to animosity between Imperial Russia and Austria-Hungary was the belief of Slavic Nationalists in Russia that there should be one big Slav Superstate and that Austria-Hungary should either relinquish its territory containing majority Slavic peoples or at the very least stop any further expansion into those Slavic majority territories it did not already control.
the kremlin's stance on annexation probably looks a lot different if literal nazis weren't murdering russians right next to the russian border for 8 years, making a nazi's birthday a national holiday, and passing laws banning the russian language

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

comedyblissoption posted:

so you're saying they were deceivingly telling the western press russia was offering extremely favorable terms for withdrawal in '22 to make boris johnson scuttling the deal look more heroic?

lol

Endman
May 18, 2010

That is not dead which can eternal lie, And with strange aeons even anime may die


comedyblissoption posted:

the kremlin's stance on annexation probably looks a lot different if literal nazis weren't murdering russians right next to the russian border for 8 years, making a nazi's birthday a national holiday, and passing laws banning the russian language

Yeah I’m not saying there isn’t good reason to want all ethnic Russians under Moscow’s umbrella. Persecution at the hands of real-life unironic Nazis would certainly be one.

Second Hand Meat Mouth
Sep 12, 2001

Majorian posted:

All right folks, it’s been fun modding this thread and cspam. But I’ve got a baby on the way and a new job, and I just don’t have the time, energy, or bandwidth to keep doing this effectively. On top of that it’s becoming increasingly clear that I’m out of step with what most of cspam’s users want. So it’s time for me to step down as a mod - probably past time, in fact. Thanks to everyone who made this a fun thread and forum to moderate. I hope this awful war ends soon.

May you all continue to be gay for Putin.

:cheers: hope you keep posting friend

Falukorv
Jun 23, 2013

A funny little mouse!
Im a bit fuzzy on what led to the escalating tensions and troop amassement in 2020 when Zelensky still had Minsk implemention on the cards (despite wide protests in late 2019). Fighting in the Donbass was dying down and there was a ceasefire of sorts in 2019-2020 but what was the timeline of renewed diplomatic demands and mounting russian pressure in 2020?

DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy
Frankly if the Ukraine state media told me the sky was blue I would be looking outside to check due to lmao why is anyone treating them as remotely authoritative about anything.

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comedyblissoption
Mar 15, 2006

Falukorv posted:

Im a bit fuzzy on what led to the escalating tensions and troop amassement in 2020 when Zelensky still had Minsk implemention on the cards (despite wide protests in late 2019). Fighting in the Donbass was dying down and there was a ceasefire of sorts in 2019-2020 but what was the timeline of renewed diplomatic demands and mounting russian pressure in 2020?
biden became president in 2021

while the trump administration had a fairly bellicose stance toward russia and escalated arms to ukraine, trump was also willing to personally sit down with putin much to the chagrin of the western press

it's possible that ukraine-in-nato conversations were materially different between the administrations

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