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Bar Ran Dun posted:Nah I mean, number of trains with damaged hazmat cars and number of hazmat cars on trains that derailed are potentially measuring two different (albeit related) things, unless I'm missing something.
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Feb 22, 2023 00:07
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Robviously posted:Unless she comes back with toxicology reports, I'd be more inclined to believe that it's the bird flu outbreak that's been happening since last year. They've detected it in wild birds all across the country and was one of the main reasons why egg prices spiked the way they did. I don't doubt that they could have died from being exposed to chemicals but given the misinformation and immediate polarization of the narratives surrounding what's happening, I want proof. somehow that explanation never crossed my mind even though i have multiple friends closely following "all the birds are dead of flu" from various angles  I'm also side-eyeing the "ten miles away" part but Paineframe is correct that chickens will make a credible effort to die of anything available so I certainly can't rule out some chemical cause. Might well be something that isn't the derailment.
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Feb 22, 2023 00:07
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Sir John Falstaff posted:I mean, number of trains with damaged hazmat cars and number of trains that derailed that had hazmat cars in them are potentially measuring two different (albeit related) things, unless I'm missing something. Potentially different things but think about what a longer train means. It means more mass that has to be stopped. Stop thinking in averages. These events are not about what happens most of the time. Haz incidents are the extremely low probability extremely high consequence events. They can improve averages, they can improve averages, while simultaneously the long tail events become more likely and more consequential. The average derailment will just be random poo poo that gets crushed or burned. Those aren’t that big of a deal to society as a whole. Differentiate between that and the high consequence long tail haz mat events. Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 00:24 on Feb 22, 2023 |
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Feb 22, 2023 00:15
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Differentiate between that and the high consequence long tail haz mat events.
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Feb 22, 2023 00:34
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Halloween Jack posted:My limited knowledge of local communes indicates that they work, to the extent that they work, because they don't let in problematic people. That is, anyone with a criminal record and anyone with mental illness that's difficult to treat. Makes it a lot easier to be a shining city on a hill. The ones around here I could learn from had those and additional problems: they hierarchize based on commune seniority, and they end up extremely ableist in practice
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Feb 22, 2023 00:41
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cat botherer posted:And that is exactly why ranked-choice and friends will never be adopted. The purpose of a system is what it does. More people are talking about such things, but that has little to do with them actually being implemented. Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 00:53 on Feb 22, 2023 |
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Feb 22, 2023 00:42
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Thanks for this and the link to the speech earlier. I was familiar with the speech, but had never actually listened to the audio before. I've listened to an excerpt and having the full audio really does come across different than the text. I'm going to listen to the full thing once I get a block of uninterrupted time. You're welcome. Unfortunately, it's a bit of a bad reading delivery by the host - who sounds really high and whose podcast is littered with a lot of unnecessary music interludes but it was all I could find as far as the full article goes and I think Hunter's prose and his framing adds a lot to why it moved him so much. I'm just trying to imagine a presidential candidate with this level of human decency, humility and honesty in this modern climate and, even if Carter WAS a lovely president (not saying he was bit voters did), that politics would be a lot more engaging if we had more people like him currently running for any office. He was too good for the White House in many ways and the thing that always gets me about the hate he receives from the GOP religious base is that he seemed (to me anyway) to embody the teachings of the book they seem to care so much about but now have, for some reason, settled on the golden calf of people like Donald Trump. BiggerBoat fucked around with this message at 00:47 on Feb 22, 2023 |
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Feb 22, 2023 00:42
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The original recording Carter Law Day speech that was circulated at the time is available, but quality isn't great: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Y_6GXZ6YL4 I think it's also worth noting that in a way, Trump and Carter are the two presidents in recent times that faced the most opposition internally in the nomination process. They both ran outsider populist campaigns, and Carter has some surprising links to other populist campaigns. His advisor Hamilton Jordan worked on Ross Perot's campaign and Patrick Caddell, pollster for Jimmy Carter (and Joe Biden for his presidential run!), was early on the Trump train.
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Feb 22, 2023 00:50
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Fart Amplifier posted:What is the data on this? The really severe events don’t happen very often. Here’s how it works on ships. poo poo happens and is studied in great detail. On the vessel side the flag state administrations and port state administrations, “competent authorities” study the event the great detail and then make reports and recommendations based on the event at international meetings to update the rules. Sometimes somethings happens enough there are multiple occurrences, that you start to get data that isn’t just extremely specific case studies. Recently on ships the examples I can think of where things have happened enough like that are industrial lithium batteries, water treatment chemicals like sodium hypochlorite, and solid bulk ores/ that have the potential to liquify above certain moisture limits. But a lot of the really severe haz mat incidents are almost unique instances. You have the event where the bad poo poo happened and that might be it for your data.
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Feb 22, 2023 00:59
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plogo posted:I think it's also worth noting that in a way, Trump and Carter are the two presidents in recent times that faced the most opposition internally in the nomination process. Obama? Sanders?
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Feb 22, 2023 01:16
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BiggerBoat posted:Obama? Sanders? Sanders lost, and Obama was recruited by people like Dick Durbin and Harry Reid before the primaries even begin. Carter was left alone by the democratic establishment because they wanted him to spoil things for Wallace in the south, who they initially saw as a greater threat.
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Feb 22, 2023 01:22
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It's a little bit paranoid, but the book Liberty Under Siege by Water Karp is based on the premise that the Carter presidency was wrecked by the two party oligopoly reasserting its control, with their counter attack starting with Carter and ending with George H.W. Bush's election. I love it.
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Feb 22, 2023 01:26
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haveblue posted:The main obstacle to using Yucca Mountain for waste storage has been removed, so just ship it all to Nevada You don't need Yucca mountain, nuclear waste is a long-solved problem and doesn't matter much at all.
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Feb 22, 2023 01:30
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GoutPatrol posted:So this is: Huh, sounds like number of wagons (and number of hazmat wagons) derailing may be a better metric, though I guess then you need to care about how badly they did it, too, since one wheel off is pretty different from being on the side...
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Feb 22, 2023 01:36
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OddObserver posted:Huh, sounds like number of wagons (and number of hazmat wagons) derailing may be a better metric, though I guess then you need to care about how badly they did it, too, since one wheel off is pretty different from being on the side... Hazardous materials incidents have mandatory reporting. PHMSA got stats on that. https://portal.phmsa.dot.gov/analyt...mmary%20Reports But that’s going to be anytime there is an uncontrolled release of hazardous materials. Which again is an extremely wide category by severity variation like derailments.
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Feb 22, 2023 01:54
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Again even many reportable hazardous materials releases might not be huge things. An incident might be shipper used wrong type of package (say an IBC super sack )for the material causing leakage into the container. They then had to trans load into lined drums of the proper type. So hazardous materials incident catches everything from that example to done blowed up. The real concern again is on the very rare severe event side.
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Feb 22, 2023 01:59
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Halloween Jack posted:My limited knowledge of local communes indicates that they work, to the extent that they work, because they don't let in problematic people. That is, anyone with a criminal record and anyone with mental illness that's difficult to treat. Makes it a lot easier to be a shining city on a hill. On the other hand, it's like saying charter schools with selective admission are better than public schools. You can't simply ignore people who are some manner of hosed up, they need to exist in society, and there needs to be a way to include them.
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Feb 22, 2023 02:10
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Charlz Guybon posted:It's already been implemented statewide in New Hampshire and Alaska Maine. New hampshire doesn't do good things, generally
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Feb 22, 2023 02:37
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So, The Satanic Temple (Not to be confused with the Church of Satan), apparently received a bomb threat. Well, a school hosting the After School Satan Club did. https://www.wtkr.com/news/b-m-williams-homes-of-chesapeake-supt-satan-club-volunteer-aclu-of-va-lawyer-receive-bomb-threat
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Feb 22, 2023 03:08
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the_steve posted:So, The Satanic Temple (Not to be confused with the Church of Satan), apparently received a bomb threat. Ah yes, the rear end Club.
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Feb 22, 2023 04:26
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Does the Needle's absence bring despair? Do you need a fix of unadulterated electoralism? Good news, friend: https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1628221479786618880 An hour after Morris' tweet and his observations are holding up. The biggest is Wisconsin, the only meaningfully contested race due to the Top Two primary. The two ("nonpartisan") Dems are ~55% while the conservatives are splitting the rest. Kentucky's state seat and VA's congressional race are both clear Dem victories, but that was known going in. Without anything more meaningful on the ballot, it's tough to call anything from the Dems overperforming. As always, though, no matter how little the margins matter on these, it's always better to be winning than losing and winning by more is always nice. ETA (instead of doubling): Minnesota continues moving rapidly with the trifecta, restoring voting rights: https://twitter.com/MNSenateInfo/status/1628201530137378816 Paracaidas fucked around with this message at 06:01 on Feb 22, 2023 |
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Feb 22, 2023 05:11
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Jennifer McLellan won the VA-04 special election by nearly 50 points. A McLellan has finally taken Richmond  Now we get to run an election to replace her in the state Senate, and then I guess run another election to replace the state delegate who will likely win that election and on and on in a game of Virginia Democrat musical chairs.
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Feb 22, 2023 06:16
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Paracaidas posted:Does the Needle's absence bring despair? Do you need a fix of unadulterated electoralism? Good news, friend: The Wisconsin thing is huge because that state is gerrymandered to hell and back by the Republican assembly. The state Supreme Court is the only avenue of recourse and until a retirement that triggered this election was 4-3 Republican. If Protasiewicz wins they can try to force a redraw. quote:Concerns about gerrymandering and the way Wisconsin's congressional and state legislative lines are drawn are also likely to be a factor in the race. The state Supreme Court, under a 4-3 conservative majority, last year approved the map of "least change" and accepted a very Republican-friendly map for the federal and state lanes, despite legal challenges from Democratic Gov. Tony Evers.
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Feb 22, 2023 06:29
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Oracle posted:Unfortunately it looks like one Republican edged out one of the liberals in the race. Top two go to the general. Protasiewicz (46%) and Mitchell (8%) were the Dems, combining for over 50% of the vote. Kelly (24%) and Dorow (22%) were the shitheads. Protasiewicz and Kelly will be on the ballot in the general.
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Feb 22, 2023 06:39
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Those results might look like Wisconsinites really love Protasiewicz; really, nobody put out any ads for/against Mitchell, so you just had a scenario where the Liberal candidate was practically running unopposed. Nobody that voted for Mitchell is going to flip to Kelly, though, so the fact that her lead was so high is promising. Kelly's ads slapped VOTE CONSERVATIVE, VOTE KELLY on them, so conservatives knew who to vote for. That probably won't change. Regarding the importance of the court, what's interesting is that the attack ads said nothing about gerrymandering or election stuff; it was all fear-mongering/racist poo poo like "Judge So-And-So let this (black) MURDERER walk free so he could MURDER." I hope that changes because I don't like seeing that poo poo clogging up my morning news, but I doubt it.
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Feb 22, 2023 13:00
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the_steve posted:So, The Satanic Temple (Not to be confused with the Church of Satan), apparently received a bomb threat. Happened in Salem, Mass's Satanic Temple yesterday as well. We got a call to avoid the area while it was being checked out. https://patch.com/massachusetts/salem/salem-evacuation-bomb-threat-investigated-satanic-temple
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Feb 22, 2023 14:47
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Sieje posted:Happened in Salem, Mass's Satanic Temple yesterday as well. We got a call to avoid the area while it was being checked out. Portsmouth NH also had antisemitic graffiti spray-painted on a synagogue and several LGBTQ+ friendly businesses Monday night/Tuesday morning. No idea if they're related but it's not good
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Feb 22, 2023 15:05
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Jon Tester will run for re-election in Montana. This will turn a very likely loss into a competitive (but, still tough) race. https://twitter.com/marianne_levine/status/1628395728862167040 Major Senators who still have not announced their retirement/re-election plans, but will likely do so soon: - Sanders (Safe, unless Phil Scott runs) - Manchin (likely turnover if Manchin doesn't run) - Sinema - Carper (Likely safe) - Hirono (Safe) - Casey - Romney (safe) Casey is waiting on a decision until he has a better diagnosis of his cancer situation. The rest are just undecided, but all of them pledged to announce something by the end of March.
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Feb 22, 2023 16:47
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If nothing else, I hope we never have to hear the names Sinema or Manchin ever again. Revolving villain theory may just get a real test.
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Feb 22, 2023 17:22
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:If nothing else, I hope we never have to hear the names Sinema or Manchin ever again. If Manchin loses or retires, that just takes the WV Senate seat from having a low chance of working with Dems to a zero chance. Manchin's seat goes red for sure if he's not in it anymore. There's no telling what's going to happen with Sinema, though. She's burned a lot of bridges and practically guaranteed a three-way general election, neither of which seem like particularly smart moves.
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Feb 22, 2023 17:29
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Has sinema indicated she'll see reason?
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Feb 22, 2023 17:29
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Main Paineframe posted:There's no telling what's going to happen with Sinema, though. She's burned a lot of bridges and practically guaranteed a three-way general election, neither of which seem like particularly smart moves.
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Feb 22, 2023 17:32
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:If nothing else, I hope we never have to hear the names Sinema or Manchin ever again. It already has “a real test” - all the state legislatures that became democratic majorities and suddenly started fixing things and passing progressive legislation.
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Feb 22, 2023 17:32
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I really don't think unspecified actions by state legislatures disprove show votes at the national level that will change when a different slate of defectors is needed. That example also conveniently ignores unkept promises that were made when out of power, the big big obvious example being California single-payer
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Feb 22, 2023 17:42
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Solkanar512 posted:It already has “a real test” - all the state legislatures that became democratic majorities and suddenly started fixing things and passing progressive legislation. I don't think anyone has ever said that Revolving Villain Theory means that every democratic politician, even state legislators, are in on the ruse.
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Feb 22, 2023 17:48
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Yeah it just means that if a bill is opposed enough by corporations and the composition of the Senate changes they'll find the other senators willing to take the necessary bribes, some of whom were lying with their vote to begin with
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Feb 22, 2023 17:50
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Harold Fjord posted:I really don't think unspecified actions by state legislatures disprove show votes at the national level that will change when a different slate of defectors is needed. It's actually going to happen in WA State but I'm 100% sure there will immediately be a manufactured lawsuit intended to get it to the supreme court and will mostly like be ruled unconstitutional for reasons.
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Feb 22, 2023 17:55
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:I don't think anyone has ever said that Revolving Villain Theory means that every democratic politician, even state legislators, are in on the ruse. The real bullshit is the inability to recognize that in any majority of the left there is always going to be a most conservative member, and second-most and so on. At some point any given policy is going tobe too far to the left for a given majority to pass. It's billed as some deep, dark conspiracy that never has any evidence provided for. For the folks claiming that the "rotating villain" is actually the case, I'd love to see evidence of an actual organized effort. Professor Beetus posted:It's actually going to happen in WA State but I'm 100% sure there will immediately be a manufactured lawsuit intended to get it to the supreme court and will mostly like be ruled unconstitutional for reasons. Is this general pessimism or do you have a specific reason to believe this to be the case, given other recent rulings of the court?
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Feb 22, 2023 18:06
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Main Paineframe posted:If Manchin loses or retires, that just takes the WV Senate seat from having a low chance of working with Dems to a zero chance. Manchin's seat goes red for sure if he's not in it anymore. Manchin's seat has no satisfying outcome, but at least once he's replaced with a generic hard-right chud, we really won't be hearing about the generic hard-right chud, or wva, and that's that. It just won't be relevant to ambiguous outcomes anymore, so nothing about it is news. Sinema is done for and the only question is if she wants to try to hurt the dems in retalition for her ouster, but under most circumstances that seat goes to a dem who won't be antagonistic to their own caucus.
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Feb 22, 2023 18:08
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Solkanar512 posted:The real bullshit is the inability to recognize that in any majority of the left there is always going to be a most conservative member, and second-most and so on. At some point any given policy is going tobe too far to the left for a given majority to pass. It's billed as some deep, dark conspiracy that never has any evidence provided for. For the folks claiming that the "rotating villain" is actually the case, I'd love to see evidence of an actual organized effort. You seem to have misunderstood. Rotating villain is used to describe the 4 democrats at the edge of the cliff, exactly as you said. But it's emphasizing that some of the Senators we think are on our side, aren't. Because when you (an evil big business senator running on being nice to gay people) only need one vote to block the bill and you know where it's coming from, you can do whatever you want including lie and vote for something you'd shut down if you had to. It's not "billed" as a deep dark conspiracy, that's just the common refrain whenever anyone describes systematic or class activity. It doesn't NEED to be a deep dark conspiracy. Bribery is legal and poison pills abound Harold Fjord fucked around with this message at 18:14 on Feb 22, 2023 |
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Feb 22, 2023 18:10
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