[Ukraine] EU: Nice minister, shame if something were to happen...

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Ukraine] EU: Nice minister, shame if something were to happen...

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What is the most powerful flying bug? This poll is closed.
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Cpt_Obvious: Jun 18, 2007

Orange Devil posted:

I got an idea that will revolutionize warfare in the 21st century:

Mechanized. Logistics.

aka
MECHLOG

This is when your dog eats a Lego and shits squares.

# ? Feb 22, 2023 15:42

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# ? May 25, 2024 22:22

Frosted Flake: Sep 13, 2011; Semper Shitpost Ubique

I just caught up on the past few pages so two things.

Vietnam bodycounts.

If you read Kill Anything That Moves, you can see that the US shifted the definition of combatant pretty dramatically. They would unload tremendous amounts of ordnance on any suspected NVA/VC, and as often as not, just any person seen in a designated area. So the first part of the equation is the authorization of firepower. I can speak mostly on artillery operations, but I'll try to elaborate in other areas as well.

The Americans routinely fired Harassment and Interdiction (H&I) missions. That's where you estimate or reconnaitre the position of an enemy unit and its lines of communication, and then attempt to disrupt the unit and interdict its supply by firing unobserved. Since most units in contact run up supply by night, most fires are by night as well. An example of this would be in the Great War where roads to the German trenches would be fired on in the middle of the night. Typically, you pick a crossroads or something, and then at a time intelligence has identified that the nightly supply passes that point, fire on it. Where intelligence doesn't exist, you estimate something like "based on supply point of origin, assume they leave one hour after sunset, how long does it take to reach the forward position? When will they be at the marked crossroads? Fire at random intervals +/- 1hr of that."

Well the problem is that the Americans often did not have very good intelligence. Obviously some units had very good LRRPs, the Rangers were about, some areas benefited from MACV SOG I think, but by and large, both the presence of the enemy and their route and supply were estimates, and mostly just existed on the map. That meant that artillery missions were fired unobserved by map, and just fell on roads and paths throughout South Vietnam by night. As many South Vietnamese villages in areas where the Americans were operating were afraid to move by day, for what I think are obvious reasons, this simply meant they were killed by night.

Now, this is the other part of the equation. When dead pack animals and people were spotted on a trail they were immediately attributed to enemy activity. The Americans very quickly stopped basing this only on the presence of weapons and military goods, reasoning that the wily VC had dragged them off before the patrol arrived, so the absence of evidence was evidence. Even if no bodies were found litter, blood trails, even the damage itself would be used as evidence of a successful strike on military targets, again with the reasoning that the VC had already recovered casualties and military equipment from the scene.

Now, in combination with the questionable identification and engagement of targets and BDA, some suspect math was applied. Reasoning that if so many Vietnamese were engaged and so many destroyed for however much firepower was used, the Americans developed a way to, I suppose you would say extrapolate this? Which means they would say that if you fired on any road, you could expect to kill, let's say 10 NVA/VC a night. They no longer had to be identified, weapons recovered, anything like that. Firing alone provided the evidence. The more firepower was used, the higher the body count was imagined to be.

This didn't just apply to artillery operations but eventually became a way by which every operation was measured. Ammunition expenditure was turned into the bodycount, sans bodies (or weapons). Each one of these elements combined to inflate figures so that when 20 dead Vietnamese found in an AO, (and not all military aged males mind you) with 3 weapons, and some blood trails, must mean an entire VC Base Area was destroyed in the operation. The reason being the rest of the weapons and casualties had been secreted away, but you could multiply what was found by X to determine the real number. That sort of thing.

This was not just low level stuff. There are some good recent books on the aerial war on the Ho Chi Minh Trail and rather than the marvel of electronic warfare that it was believed to be in 1991 (and the implications of that I think are interesting but beyond what I can condense into one post), it was mostly an exercise in creative accounting.

The US would employ all manner of sensors. Sensors to detect footfalls, sensors to detect vehicle tyres, sensors to detect the spark plugs firing in a ICE, sensors to detect urine, early TI, LLTV and other image intensification systems, searchlights, flares. They would then plaster just about anything that moved, and report a change in the sensor activity as destroyed vehicles.

They used more sophisticated aircraft than I can count, but probably the best known are the gunships. The AC-130s and AC-119s I think are pretty well known, and we have from Call of Duty this outsized idea of their effectiveness, so I'll take the AC-123K Black Spot.

It was a converted cargo plane, filled with sensors and weapons, only instead of guns it carried between 80 and 180 cluster bomb canisters, so 2,600 to 6400 1 lb bomblets. It would then fly along the length of the trail and drop them from chutes. Now, at the time, crew reported destroying hundreds of Vietnamese trucks, which were all duly noted and recorded. Just these aircraft, flying their specialized mission profile, were credited with 3.something trucks per mission, something like 1100 trucks over 16 months.

However, now that we are able to speak to Vietnamese veterans and access their records, it's been discovered that most "destroyed" trucks really only had cosmetic damage, broken windows, that sort of thing. Which isn't to downplay the cost for the Vietnamese, many of the drivers on the first leg of the trip were female university students, there were casualties, but for the extravagant amounts of ordnance being employed the actual damage was not nearly what was logged.

This applied to pretty much all of the aircraft flying their multimillion dollar missions on the Ho Chi Minh Trial, the F-111s, Gunships, B-26s, Neptunes, all of these vehicles packed full of sensors, using the first LGBs, TV guided bombs, cluster bombs, dropping by radar, flying by terrain following radar. There was an idea, and as I alluded to as this was canonical in 1991 among USAF leadership, who had been fliers over Vietnam, that the more sophisticated the technology, the greater the effect, so rather than seeing this as, you know about the same as blind bombing in WW2, they increased the estimates just because more sophisticated EW methods and means of attack had been employed. Keep in mind that except for a few SOG teams, the trail was hardly ever actually observed, and again, the absence of wrecks would confirm an interdicted convoy as the wily NVA must have recovered the vehicles, which means vehicles were destroyed, so it was a success.

There's more here than I can get into before my 10 o clock

Propaganda

I read some of the Canadian newspaper headlines on the Dieppe raid a while back, and I think it might be worth poking around things like this because there's a pervasive idea that we're never propagandized, or never deliberately propagandized to, by our media and governments. I think Manufacturing Consent has been a double edged sword because while it raises awareness of the really sophisticated methods, I think, even after The Ghost of Kiev, Snake Island, whatever, people think the press and military officials speaking to the press would not just straight up lie. What I'm trying to point to is, look at the reporting at the time of things we know now were serious military reverses. Dieppe for the Canadians, maybe the Japanese landings in the PI for the Americans, and you'll see that a lot of the reporting on Ukraine seems similar. We're so used to thinking about it in terms of nuance, narrative, maybe they're downplaying XYZ, but I think we've seen enough instances with Ukraine reporting that they will 100% spread total falsehoods and propaganda, that's not really any more sophisticated than WW2 reporting on Allied defeats.

I can't get into this because I need to get my work stuff out, but it's worth poking around I think.

# ? Feb 22, 2023 15:43

Not So Fast: Dec 27, 2007

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1628372009800372225?t=THsyyUmNRuAT5_rdZiOPcg&s=19
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1628374700337295361?t=GNTCvB5wNqBBGc5ukYpzHg&s=19

# ? Feb 22, 2023 15:48

AnimeIsTrash: Jun 30, 2018

Tiler Kiwi posted:

the main lesson the us learned from vietnam is not to be honest but to get a more compliant press

thats not true, tehy also learned that the general popuilation wont care if you dont draft them into the army

# ? Feb 22, 2023 15:50

fanfic insert: Nov 4, 2009

a god drat idiot posted:

In a country that shoots collaborators/sympathizers if somebody calls me up asking when it's time for the war to stop I'm going to sound like Johnny Rico after the astroid hit.

True and I'd probably do the same but I'd still expect a real result to look something like at least 60% want at least the donbass back

# ? Feb 22, 2023 15:52

BadOptics: Sep 11, 2012

smug jeebus posted:

New Laserpig video dropped; Wrap it up Russailures, war's over

Also don't forgot to buy all the new Lazer pig merch

I lol'd when right after the LazerPig-themed Trans Pride flag it showed a LazerPig-themed Trump hat. Literally monetizing war and any social iconography (because he prob doesn't have any deeply held fundamental beliefs/ideology) for a quick buck.

# ? Feb 22, 2023 15:57

genericnick: Dec 26, 2012

euphronius posted:

can�t see a downside of Belarus joining Russia directly

Russia should join Belarus imo.

# ? Feb 22, 2023 15:57

fanfic insert: Nov 4, 2009

crepeface posted:

oh cool you can get a 7-day free trial

lol sucker, wasted your free trial on a 14 paragraph article, couldve prodded FF and gotten twice that excluding book summaries and excerpts for free

# ? Feb 22, 2023 16:01

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

Frosted Flake posted:

This was not just low level stuff. There are some good recent books on the aerial war on the Ho Chi Minh Trail and rather than the marvel of electronic warfare that it was believed to be in 1991 (and the implications of that I think are interesting but beyond what I can condense into one post), it was mostly an exercise in creative accounting.

The US would employ all manner of sensors. Sensors to detect footfalls, sensors to detect vehicle tyres, sensors to detect the spark plugs firing in a ICE, sensors to detect urine, early TI, LLTV and other image intensification systems, searchlights, flares. They would then plaster just about anything that moved, and report a change in the sensor activity as destroyed vehicles.

...

This applied to pretty much all of the aircraft flying their multimillion dollar missions on the Ho Chi Minh Trial, the F-111s, Gunships, B-26s, Neptunes, all of these vehicles packed full of sensors, using the first LGBs, TV guided bombs, cluster bombs, dropping by radar, flying by terrain following radar. There was an idea, and as I alluded to as this was canonical in 1991 among USAF leadership, who had been fliers over Vietnam, that the more sophisticated the technology, the greater the effect, so rather than seeing this as, you know about the same as blind bombing in WW2, they increased the estimates just because more sophisticated EW methods and means of attack had been employed. Keep in mind that except for a few SOG teams, the trail was hardly ever actually observed, and again, the absence of wrecks would confirm an interdicted convoy as the wily NVA must have recovered the vehicles, which means vehicles were destroyed, so it was a success.

Lewis Sorley's "A Better War" was one of the worst books I've ever read - it was practically commissioned to rehabilitate the final years of the Vietnam War as "we totally would've won if only we didn't pull out" and cited all the stuff you're talking about where the US installs these sensors and does all this advanced bombing and claims that it would've lead to victory eventually with Creighton Abrams at the helm.

# ? Feb 22, 2023 16:03

crepeface: Nov 5, 2004; r*p*f*c*

fanfic insert posted:

lol sucker, wasted your free trial on a 14 paragraph article, couldve prodded FF and gotten twice that excluding book summaries and excerpts for free

# ? Feb 22, 2023 16:12

Dreylad: Jun 19, 2001

Going back to China vs IMF loans, it's pretty funny that China offering a better deal and no requirement to implement ~~neoliberal austerity~~ fiscal discipline that makes it more efficient (to extract wealth from) is as close as we're going to get to uh... de-neocolonization I guess you could call it?

# ? Feb 22, 2023 16:16

euphronius: Feb 18, 2009

FF those are unironically good posts

# ? Feb 22, 2023 16:21

webcams for christ: Nov 2, 2005

Not So Fast posted:

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1628374700337295361?t=GNTCvB5wNqBBGc5ukYpzHg&s=19

smh what has become of the red army choir. they're clearly lip syncing in that video. like, I get that it's difficult to mic and mix a choir in a stadium but still

# ? Feb 22, 2023 16:34

Zedhe Khoja: Nov 10, 2017; sürgünden selamlar
yıkıcılar ulusuna

webcams for christ posted:

smh what has become of the red army choir. they're clearly lip syncing in that video. like, I get that it's difficult to mic and mix a choir in a stadium but still

they literally all died in a horrible planecrash and were never the same frankly

# ? Feb 22, 2023 16:35

euphronius: Feb 18, 2009

Do you think in Russia you get a warning before you get thrown out of a window ?

# ? Feb 22, 2023 16:37

webcams for christ: Nov 2, 2005

Zedhe Khoja posted:

they literally all died in a horrible planecrash and were never the same frankly

oh poo poo I forgot about that rip

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYuOFSe-zAs

# ? Feb 22, 2023 16:38

Zeppelin Insanity: Oct 28, 2009; Wahnsinn
Einfach
Wahnsinn

gradenko_2000 posted:

This is from a few pages back but that number seems bullshit to me.

quote:

A report prepared by the staff of the U.S. Central Command, Combined Forces
Air Component Commander, indicates that as of April 30, 2003, there were 466,985
total personnel deployed for Operation Iraqi Freedom.
This includes USAF, 54,955;
USAF Reserve, 2,084; USAF National Guard, 7,207; USMC, 74,405; USMC
Reserve, 9,501; USN, 61,296 (681 are members of the U.S. Coast Guard); USN
Reserve, 2,056; and USA, 233,342; USA Reserve, 10,683; and USA National Guard,
8,866.

https://sgp.fas.org/crs/mideast/RL31763.pdf

That's not counting the other countries, although the US was of course the overwhelming majority.

# ? Feb 22, 2023 16:39

Fleetwood: Mar 26, 2010; biggest hochul head in china

Dreylad posted:

de-neocolonization I guess you could call it?

maybe preemptive un-coupling? -undermining colonialist efforts to integrate developing nations into a coercive, stratified economic system before it happens so those nations can determine their own fates

# ? Feb 22, 2023 16:57

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Zedhe Khoja posted:

they literally all died in a horrible planecrash and were never the same frankly

That was 7 years ago though, and they have had plenty of live performances since that time, I think they were just phoning it in because they were essentially backup singers.

Zeppelin Insanity posted:

This is from a few pages back but that number seems bullshit to me.

https://sgp.fas.org/crs/mideast/RL31763.pdf

That's not counting the other countries, although the US was of course the overwhelming majority.

Yeah, I don't know where he got 75k from unless he was literally only counting active duty Marines.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 17:15 on Feb 22, 2023

# ? Feb 22, 2023 17:13

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Article in the Financial Times:

https://www.ft.com/content/01b69c54-d679-4c86-8dc8-1fff649bf424

The FT posted:

For many outside the west, Russia is not important enough to hate

Indifference to Putin�s aggression in Ukraine has left western analysts flummoxed

In the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US, American pundits would plaintively ask: �Why do they hate us?� A year into Vladimir Putin�s war in Ukraine, a variation on that question has begun to take shape: �Why do they not hate them?�

�Them�, of course, refers to Putin�s Russia. The reluctance of non-western governments to impose sanctions on Moscow can be easily explained by economic interests. But how to explain why non-western publics do not feel more moral outrage at the Kremlin�s outright aggression?

A new study, United West, Divided by the Rest, reveals that the war and Russian military setbacks have not forced people in many non-western countries to downgrade their opinion of Russia or to question its relative strength. Russia is seen either as an �ally� or a �partner� by 79 per cent of people in China (unsurprisingly). But the same is true for 80 per cent of Indians and 69 per cent of Turks. Moreover, about three-quarters of respondents in each of these countries believe that Russia is either stronger, or at least as strong, as they perceived it to be before the war.

And while a plurality of Americans and Europeans want Ukraine to win even if it means a longer war and economic hardship for themselves, most Chinese, Indians and Turks who expressed a view said they would prefer the war to stop as soon as possible � even if that means Ukraine giving up part of its territory. They see western support for Kyiv as motivated by reasons other than the protection of Ukraine�s territorial integrity or its democracy.

Western support for Ukraine, particularly the delivery of advanced weapons, has made it easier for non-western nations to accept the Kremlin�s narrative of the conflict as a proxy for the confrontation between Russia and the west. This explains why Moscow�s military reverses at the hands of Ukrainian forces hardly register with many in the so-called global south. If Russia is facing off against the west as a whole, it is not surprising that it has been unsuccessful.

Confronted with such public attitudes, western analysts usually lament the corrosive effect of Russian propaganda and the legacies of colonialism. But much more important is that Europeans see the war as a return to cold war-style polarisation between two antagonistic blocs, whereas others tend to believe that the world is fragmenting into multiple centres of power. In the words of a former senior Indian diplomat, for many outside of the west �the war in Ukraine is about the future of Europe, not the future of the world order�.

Talking recently to journalists, writers and politicians in Colombia, I also detected a certain resentment at Europe�s geographic privilege. What exasperates the non-western �street� is that when something happens in Europe it is immediately treated as a global concern; while if takes place in Africa or Latin America, this is almost never the case. By ignoring war in Ukraine, many outside the west, either consciously or unconsciously, question Europe�s centrality in global politics.

Although Putin and his propagandists may be relieved by the way non-western societies view what is happening in Ukraine, the question, �why do they not hate them� also has an answer that is less flattering to Moscow. Developing countries are not outraged by Putin�s aggression because Russia has ceased to be seen as a global superpower. For countries such as India and Turkey, Russia has become like them, so they do not need to fear it. The customary privilege of regional powers is to not be hated outside their region; Moscow now enjoys this privilege.

The Soviet Union was an ideological superpower. Soviet advisers in what used to be called the third world in the 1970s and 1980s were there to stir revolutions. Putin, on the other hand, does not have a transformative agenda outside of his imperial project in the post-Soviet space. The Wagner Group in Africa are mercenaries who fight for money, not ideas. Paradoxically, it is Russia�s lack of soft power that leaves the non-western world relatively unmoved by what Moscow is doing in Ukraine.

Now that it is just one �great middle power� among many, Russia�s wars blend into all the other conflicts around the world � they take their place alongside the violence in Syria, Libya, Ethiopia and Myanmar. The war in Ukraine is not a turning point in the non-western imagination. So the answer to the question, �why do they not hate them?� is simple. It�s because Russia is no longer important enough to hate.

And the top-rated comment by subscribers to the Financial Times:

Mooganoo the sane posted:

The thing supporters of Russia have in common is that they are paternalistic societies with "Big Man" politics. They see it as their right to act however they wish and use their power to control or oppress their neighbour if they can. Neither India or Turkey would think twice about invading their neighbours if they thought it would be a quick win and they don't welcome other countries sticking their nose in and imposing "western" rules upon.

In reality this is just the autocrat's union sticking up for it's members.

The author sets out all of the information that would allow you to understand why non-western countries aren't too bothered about the war, then concludes that it's really because Russia is just too darn insignificant to care about any more.

# ? Feb 22, 2023 17:17

Turtle Sandbox: Dec 31, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

Zodium posted:

historically it's a good idea to get your mercenaries killed.

Have to pay them otherwise, and usually they still stab you in the back.

Can't trust a merc.

# ? Feb 22, 2023 17:23

Tankbuster: Oct 1, 2021

Pistol_Pete posted:

Article in the Financial Times:

https://www.ft.com/content/01b69c54-d679-4c86-8dc8-1fff649bf424

And the top-rated comment by subscribers to the Financial Times:

Why yes I agree, Indira gandhi should have kept rolling the tanks into lahore.

# ? Feb 22, 2023 17:28

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Pistol_Pete posted:

Article in the Financial Times:

https://www.ft.com/content/01b69c54-d679-4c86-8dc8-1fff649bf424

And the top-rated comment by subscribers to the Financial Times:

The author sets out all of the information that would allow you to understand why non-western countries aren't too bothered about the war, then concludes that it's really because Russia is just too darn insignificant to care about any more.

I refuse to believe the author of this article isn't winking at their audience.

# ? Feb 22, 2023 17:37

Al-Saqr: Nov 11, 2007; One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

that financial times article was such a huff of copium its crazy

# ? Feb 22, 2023 17:46

Zodium: Jun 19, 2004

Turtle Sandbox posted:

Have to pay them otherwise, and usually they still stab you in the back.

Can't trust a merc.

if you don't get them killed during the war, you'll have an army of deeply broken people whose identity revolves around being psycho soldiers running around with no enemy to fight. they're like the original special forces.

# ? Feb 22, 2023 17:48

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

I am actually surprised that Turks specifically are so positive on Russia, it is quite a change from 2015.

# ? Feb 22, 2023 18:25

euphronius: Feb 18, 2009

Erdogan is good at his job. (no moral judgments)

# ? Feb 22, 2023 18:27

Xaris: Jul 25, 2006; Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

euphronius posted:

Erdogan is good at his job. (no moral judgments)

The funny thing is he actually really sucks at it but he�s playing politics like it was intended. like a more incompetent Huey Long

# ? Feb 22, 2023 18:28

paul_soccer12: Jan 5, 2020; by Fluffdaddy

gradenko_2000 posted:

my wife

Borat

# ? Feb 22, 2023 18:32

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Subvisual Haze posted:

I refuse to believe the author of this article isn't winking at their audience.

Ha ha, I've thought that with a few of the articles I've seen recently: they can't state the obvious conclusion outright, so end up writing like a Renaissance scientist who's trying to get their point across while technically still staying within orthodox Catholic doctrine.

# ? Feb 22, 2023 18:44

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1628047998314766338

SHUUUUUUUUUUT THE gently caress UUUUUUUUUUUUUP!!!

# ? Feb 22, 2023 18:45

Lord of Pie: Mar 2, 2007

gradenko_2000 posted:

https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1628047998314766338

SHUUUUUUUUUUT THE gently caress UUUUUUUUUUUUUP!!!

Had to go to a European warzone to ride a train because American trains are so poo poo

# ? Feb 22, 2023 18:47

Clark Nova: Jul 18, 2004

he looks lost and confused

# ? Feb 22, 2023 18:51

Lostconfused: Oct 1, 2008

Lostconfused posted:

Everyone wants to talk about tanks, but nobody wants to talk about the poor trains.

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1627745471023222807

https://twitter.com/TimInHonolulu/status/1627724543778500608

# ? Feb 22, 2023 19:02

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

https://twitter.com/BeyondFest/status/1628150857635364864

I feel like trying to make John WickWar2 that's set in FINLAND is going to have some issues with historical accuracy

# ? Feb 22, 2023 19:03

Cpt_Obvious: Jun 18, 2007

Biden is a derailment elemental.

# ? Feb 22, 2023 19:07

mila kunis: Jun 10, 2011

gradenko_2000 posted:

https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1628047998314766338

SHUUUUUUUUUUT THE gently caress UUUUUUUUUUUUUP!!!

this doesn't feel like the appropriate time for americans to be speaking proudly about trains

# ? Feb 22, 2023 19:08

Nonsense: Jan 26, 2007

gradenko_2000 posted:

https://twitter.com/BeyondFest/status/1628150857635364864

I feel like trying to make John WickWar2 that's set in FINLAND is going to have some issues with historical accuracy

That's because the nazi's are the Russians, it is analogy. It is sure to have everyone in theaters rooting for Zelenskyy!

# ? Feb 22, 2023 19:09