War in Ukraine: thread feedback session open unttil Saturday (i'll regret this)

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Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

evil_bunnY posted:

Xi has so little to gain in backing Zelensky

Return to normalcy and end of economic disruptions caused by war and sanctions. Getting rid of the crazy man with nukes. There are reasons and Xi will consider them I'm sure :colbert:

# ? Feb 24, 2023 20:29

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# ? May 26, 2024 23:59

bird food bathtub: Aug 9, 2003; College Slice

evil_bunnY posted:

Xi has so little to gain in backing Zelensky

Which, yeah, is probably going to be how it turns out. Zelensky really knows his role though and I'd have no problem believing he's going to to go out and play the diplomat knowing the whole time Xi ain't gonna change poo poo.

# ? Feb 24, 2023 20:45

Der Kyhe: Jun 25, 2008

evil_bunnY posted:

Xi has so little to gain in backing Zelensky

There, however, is a wealth of reasons why he should reconsider the more and more certain-looking step off the fence, into the team Russia.

China really has no reason to pick sides here, if they want to pick the cherries off the cake. Unless they really have bought the idea of "making west and US to burn meaningful amount of resources backing up Ukraine, making the Taiwan action possible in 2-4 year scale." And that isn't happening right now, Russia is losing its war to NATO's coin purse, not credit card.

# ? Feb 24, 2023 20:49

Morrow: Oct 31, 2010

A huge chunk of Chinese foreign policy also hinges on Xi's direction. Getting a personal relationship going is absolutely a necessity.

# ? Feb 24, 2023 20:59

DarklyDreaming: Apr 4, 2009; Fun scary

Morrow posted:

Medvedev is weird. He had his shot at the big time, he lost Putin's favor as heir, and he's just been on a downward spiral. He maybe hopes that if he's insanely jingoistic enough he will be tapped as successor again.

You saw this among American right-wingers trying and failing to ride Trump's coattails from 2017-2022. You don't get the authoritarian strongman's approval through ideological purity, you get it through old school medieval fealty

# ? Feb 24, 2023 21:00

the holy poopacy: May 16, 2009; hey! check this out; Fun Shoe

evil_bunnY posted:

Xi has so little to gain in backing Zelensky

I'm not really sure about that. It's in China's best interest for the war to be over yesterday and it doesn't particularly matter if it ends on Russia's terms... but China definitely does not want the West to score an unambiguous win. If China can strongarm Russia into a genuine compromise (that isn't a total capitulation) and get Ukraine to go along with it then it would be a huge diplomatic score for China.

# ? Feb 24, 2023 21:01

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

the holy poopacy posted:

I'm not really sure about that. It's in China's best interest for the war to be over yesterday and it doesn't particularly matter if it ends on Russia's terms... but China definitely does not want the West to score an unambiguous win. If China can strongarm Russia into a genuine compromise (that isn't a total capitulation) and get Ukraine to go along with it then it would be a huge diplomatic score for China.

They won't. They don't want Russia to lose anything because any compromise just undermines their plans for reabsorbing Taiwan. Ukraine is Russian and its an internal matter and NATO/the West shouldn't have butted in and upset everything. They'll do it to look reasonable and not commit to jack poo poo just like Russia's been doing the whole time, and if Zelensky isn't blinded by hope he'll see right through it. And honestly, he's dealt with Russia enough to know when an autocrat is blowing smoke, I suspect.

# ? Feb 24, 2023 21:19

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

China is a bit stuck because if it support Ukraine, even just morally, it erodes its justifications for its future invasion of Taiwan. But if they outright support Russia, they're going to find the trend of the west cutting economic ties will rapidly accelerate. The smart move is to stay out of it and pressure Russia to throw in the towel. Offer to help rebuild the russian economy, do the same economic imperialism in russia as they do in africa.

Going all with Russia is going to kickstart a much more serious cold war between China and the West and I don't see how that's possibly good for China.

# ? Feb 24, 2023 21:21

WarpedLichen: Aug 14, 2008

New defmon3 thread.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1629214694413148162

thread reader version:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1629214694413148162.html

Bakhmut situation seems pretty bad, especially in the north - I expect we'll see a withdrawal in the coming week?

# ? Feb 24, 2023 21:24

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

Nenonen posted:

Return to normalcy and end of economic disruptions caused by war and sanctions. Getting rid of the crazy man with nukes. There are reasons and Xi will consider them I'm sure

This all assumes that China backing Ukraine would cause the war to end. I'm not sure there's any reason to believe that it would.

# ? Feb 24, 2023 21:25

Alchenar: Apr 9, 2008

Conversely, China can't for obvious reasons endorse the idea that a popular vote can sever a territory from the greater country.

# ? Feb 24, 2023 21:30

Ynglaur: Oct 9, 2013; The Malta Conference, anyone?

I'm not sure China has any winning plays here, but they do have losing plays. Their best bet probably is to stay neutral and then be ready to rebuild both Russia and Ukraine's economies after the war. I think China is showing a remarkable lack of patience when it comes to Taiwan. Enough Taiwanese and Chinese are young enough they don't remember the civil war, and they could have gone down the path of closer economic integration. Instead, Xi is just another tyrant who wants the trappings of empire.

# ? Feb 24, 2023 21:31

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

Baronjutter posted:

Offer to help rebuild the russian economy, do the same economic imperialism in russia as they do in africa.

There is no way in hell Putin can survive the kind of optics having to be rescued by China will bring to Russia's self-image as the primary bulwark against 'the West.' He wants to regain the old Empire and be a world power like in the old USSR days, not play vassal state to some other country full of minorities no less. China wouldn't offer because they well understand the concept of 'face' and it'd be a serious insult if they did and they know it.

quote:

Going all with Russia is going to kickstart a much more serious cold war between China and the West and I don't see how that's possibly good for China.

If China thinks its already started and they need to get while the getting's good before all the sanctions on chips and such really have a chance to start biting, I could see them deciding to go mask off and jump in like they did with dropping covid mitigations, to get out in front of it. Propping up Russia also secures their western flank. A battered, distracted Russia on their border is better than a conquered, Western-leaning Russia. But I doubt they'd go all-in when they can just do a boil-the-frog ala the US and point to what they're doing with Russia being no different.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Feb 24, 2023 21:38

Burns: May 10, 2008

Vox Nihili posted:

This all assumes that China backing Ukraine would cause the war to end. I'm not sure there's any reason to believe that it would.

Funnily enough, I think it would end the war. But it would only cause a delay to the next war because Russia cannot be trusted.

# ? Feb 24, 2023 21:39

enigma74: Aug 5, 2005; a lean lobster who probably doesn't even taste good.

Ynglaur posted:

I'm not sure China has any winning plays here, but they do have losing plays. Their best bet probably is to stay neutral and then be ready to rebuild both Russia and Ukraine's economies after the war. I think China is showing a remarkable lack of patience when it comes to Taiwan. Enough Taiwanese and Chinese are young enough they don't remember the civil war, and they could have gone down the path of closer economic integration. Instead, Xi is just another tyrant who wants the trappings of empire.

Winning play could be to bribe Ukraine's entire leadership with vast sums of cash (generational $$$), to surrender Ukraine as a satellite state to Russia. West looks stupid, Putin wins, China gets this distracting war over with so they can shape politics to better take over Taiwan.

China might believe that Zelenskyy needs the guarantee of his personal safety from a credible third party (China) to enforce this proposal, since VDV already tried to assassinate him. Not that he would take them up and any such offer.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

enigma74 fucked around with this message at 21:47 on Feb 24, 2023

# ? Feb 24, 2023 21:42

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

Ynglaur posted:

I'm not sure China has any winning plays here, but they do have losing plays. Their best bet probably is to stay neutral and then be ready to rebuild both Russia and Ukraine's economies after the war. I think China is showing a remarkable lack of patience when it comes to Taiwan. Enough Taiwanese and Chinese are young enough they don't remember the civil war, and they could have gone down the path of closer economic integration. Instead, Xi is just another tyrant who wants the trappings of empire.

The CCP clearly has the view that any land that was once ruled by China is rightfully Chinas, self-determination be damned. Also human rights and democracy are weak, wrong and offensively unchinese. Just closer economic integration isn't enough and it seems unlikely anyone could now convince the Taiwanese to give up their freedom for life under authoritarian rule. The real lack of patience was not honouring Hong Kong's Two Systems long enough to fool Taiwan they could have the same.

# ? Feb 24, 2023 21:50

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

enigma74 posted:

Winning play could be to bribe Ukraine's entire leadership with vast sums of cash (generational $$$), to surrender Ukraine as a satellite state to Russia. West looks stupid, Putin wins, China gets this distracting war over with so they can shape politics to better take over Taiwan.

If Russia couldn't manage that without causing Euromaidan in the first place, and then one year ago couldn't bribe the army to surrender, then I doubt anyone would be able to bribe the leadership at this point.

# ? Feb 24, 2023 21:52

Tomn: Aug 23, 2007; And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

Oracle posted:

a conquered, Western-leaning Russia.

I don't really see this happening under any circumstances, even with Ukraine winning total victory in the next month. At best you might, maybe, see Putin pushed out of power but Russia automatically becoming Western-leaning seems unlikely without a LOT of poo poo going exactly right. Of course, it's possible that Chinese leaders might FEAR that happening (especially if like Russia they're still worried about Color Revolutions being sneaky CIA plots instead of actual popular revolutions) but I don't see any realistic way it will.

# ? Feb 24, 2023 21:53

enigma74: Aug 5, 2005; a lean lobster who probably doesn't even taste good.

Nenonen posted:

If Russia couldn't manage that without causing Euromaidan in the first place, and then one year ago couldn't bribe the army to surrender, then I doubt anyone would be able to bribe the leadership at this point.

Hmm, then maybe a personal threat to absolutely ruin the lives of Ukraine's political leadership in the future if they don't agree to some Russian demands? Something like this, but modernized:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine_familial_exterminations

Of course, this would be combined with the bribe offer, a carrot and stick strategy if you will.

# ? Feb 24, 2023 21:56

Henrik Zetterberg: Dec 7, 2007

I see this thread goes back to Oct 2022. Is there an original thread from a year ago that I can't seem to find with search?

# ? Feb 24, 2023 22:00

Tomn: Aug 23, 2007; And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

enigma74 posted:

Hmm, then maybe a personal threat to absolutely ruin the lives of Ukraine's political leadership in the future if they don't agree to some Russian demands? Something like this, but modernized:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine_familial_exterminations

Of course, this would be combined with the bribe offer, a carrot and stick strategy if you will.

I, uh, think you're drastically overestimating the ability of China to interfere with the lives of people outside China.

Also even if they could do it, having even a whiff of that get out would completely and utterly tank China's diplomatic reputation, even more so than it already has. Nobody is going to accept China conducting what amounts to mass high-level political assassination.

# ? Feb 24, 2023 22:01

Shes Not Impressed: Apr 25, 2004

enigma74 posted:

Hmm, then maybe a personal threat to absolutely ruin the lives of Ukraine's political leadership in the future if they don't agree to some Russian demands? Something like this, but modernized:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine_familial_exterminations

Of course, this would be combined with the bribe offer, a carrot and stick strategy if you will.

Could you steer your conversation away from fantasy and back to reality?

# ? Feb 24, 2023 22:05

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

Henrik Zetterberg posted:

I see this thread goes back to Oct 2022. Is there an original thread from a year ago that I can't seem to find with search?

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3993516

# ? Feb 24, 2023 22:06

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Henrik Zetterberg posted:

I see this thread goes back to Oct 2022. Is there an original thread from a year ago that I can't seem to find with search?

It's linked in the first line of the first post in the thread.

# ? Feb 24, 2023 22:14

enigma74: Aug 5, 2005; a lean lobster who probably doesn't even taste good.

Shes Not Impressed posted:

Could you steer your conversation away from fantasy and back to reality?

Yeah, it doesn't seem likely to happen. But other than this unlikely scenario, Xi seems to be wasting his time meeting Zelenskyy, unless it's for internal propaganda purposes. Better for him (and China) to stay out of it completely and continue to buy the cheap Russian oil. Instead, there might be some variation of "Zelenskyy refused our peaceful mediation, therefore it is reasonable for us to supply military drones to Russia".

enigma74 fucked around with this message at 22:20 on Feb 24, 2023

# ? Feb 24, 2023 22:17

Henrik Zetterberg: Dec 7, 2007

cinci zoo sniper posted:

It's linked in the first line of the first post in the thread.

I read that OP 3 times and missed it somehow. Thanks.

# ? Feb 24, 2023 22:20

Der Kyhe: Jun 25, 2008

Oracle posted:

[...] Ukraine is Russian and its an internal matter and NATO/the West shouldn't have butted in and upset everything. They'll do it to look reasonable and not commit to jack poo poo just like Russia's been doing the whole time, and if Zelensky isn't blinded by hope he'll see right through it. And honestly, he's dealt with Russia enough to know when an autocrat is blowing smoke, I suspect.

Except for the part where Ukraine was a republic that claimed independence in 1917 for a brief time before retaken by Russia in 1921 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_War_of_Independence and the fact that it was granted independence by the USSR in 1991. If Ukraine isn't independent, by the same degree Poland, Baltics or Finland isn't either. Russian empire or its success states just cannot decide that the independence granted by their predecessors aren't valid anymore, although they sure keep trying.

The Ukrainian independence, or sovereignty is nothing akin to Taiwan situation and the Chinese top officials know this.

# ? Feb 24, 2023 22:32

Flavahbeast: Jul 21, 2001

enigma74 posted:

Yeah, it doesn't seem likely to happen. But other than this unlikely scenario, Xi seems to be wasting his time meeting Zelenskyy, unless it's for internal propaganda purposes. Better for him (and China) to stay out of it completely and continue to buy the cheap Russian oil. Instead, there might be some variation of "Zelenskyy refused our peaceful mediation, therefore it is reasonable for us to supply military drones to Russia".

Meeting with Xi makes perfect sense, weapons and ammunition from China could be fundamental for continuing Putin's special military operation and if Xi was irrevocably committed to the success of the invasion he would have started shipping arms a long time ago

# ? Feb 24, 2023 22:36

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

Let's ease up on the extended hypotheticals and Clancychat re: China please

# ? Feb 24, 2023 23:01

Grape: Nov 16, 2017; Happily shilling for China!

Scratch Monkey posted:

https://twitter.com/emiliovigil5/status/1629097972473421824?s=20

My favorites are the immensely :ironicat:

ones crowing about "Guess some of you need to completely re-examine your media consumption and world view if you thought this would happened!".

# ? Feb 24, 2023 23:22

khwarezm: Oct 26, 2010; Deal with it.

the holy poopacy posted:

I'm not really sure about that. It's in China's best interest for the war to be over yesterday and it doesn't particularly matter if it ends on Russia's terms... but China definitely does not want the West to score an unambiguous win. If China can strongarm Russia into a genuine compromise (that isn't a total capitulation) and get Ukraine to go along with it then it would be a huge diplomatic score for China.

That's an interesting perspective, making China seem like the voice of reason that manages to get both sides to the table and hammer out a peace that's reasonably acceptable for both actually seems like it would be a massive coup for them. I don't really see what they gain in the long run from going too hard supporting Russia other than hoping that the war sucks up Western attention and resources. But even then a Taiwan operation in the meantime seems like a gigantic gamble.

# ? Feb 25, 2023 00:16

RockWhisperer: Oct 26, 2018

Scratch Monkey posted:

https://twitter.com/emiliovigil5/status/1629097972473421824?s=20

I'll be the first to admit I didn't think Russia would invade either. After reading articles like this one from the NYTimes and similar foreign policy articles before the war, it seemed that any invasion would turn into a military defeat for Ukraine followed by a prolonged insurgency. I thought Putin was smart enough to avoid what could become another Afghanistan war (the soviet one) and play his cards right.

I didn't realize how Russia became fascist (I mean that literally), that Putin harbored delusional fantasies of being the next Peter the Great, or the difference making power of Western intelligence.

# ? Feb 25, 2023 00:31

Saladman: Jan 12, 2010

RockWhisperer posted:

I'll be the first to admit I didn't think Russia would invade either. After reading articles like this one from the NYTimes and similar foreign policy articles before the war, it seemed that any invasion would turn into a military defeat for Ukraine followed by a prolonged insurgency. I thought Putin was smart enough to avoid what could become another Afghanistan war (the soviet one) and play his cards right.

I didn't realize how Russia became fascist (I mean that literally), that Putin harbored delusional fantasies of being the next Peter the Great, or the difference making power of Western intelligence.

You will in fact the first to admit it, because if you look at the current tweets from all of the people quoted there, they moved their goalposts to Mars. "Well aktsually Russia didn�t invade Ukraine because Ukraine doesn�t even exist� type mental gymnastics. I looked at four or five of them and 100% of them were still spouting the evils of NATO and poor innocent Russia.

E; ugh, too much Twitter use right now. I need to wash my eyes. Please Elon Musk, continue burning it allll the way to the ground and I�ll like you again like it�s 2017.

Saladman fucked around with this message at 00:54 on Feb 25, 2023

# ? Feb 25, 2023 00:46

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Pentagon Press Sec press conference notes.
Transcript and video at link: https://www.defense.gov/News/Transc...press-briefing/
Additional US assistance posted earlier today: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3308633/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

Intro, and highlights as I choose. This conference was not specifically about Ukraine, but I've cut it to be Ukraine-related. A quick note on highlights: I am including a brief section regarding China, then cutting the rest. If you want to read more, click the link above and read it or watch the video. Given that there's nothing very concrete about China, I'm largely planning to ignore the topic for now, as it tends to steer conversations into the US and China rather than remaining about the Ukraine conflict.

-No evidence China has provided lethal aid to Russia, though China could choose to do so in the future.
-Since the aid announcements from this morning are under USAI, there is no expectation that the UAS, etc, from this specific package would reach Ukraine by the spring. Aimed at medium to long-term needs, and the announcement starts the contracting process.
-US position remains that the US will support Ukraine for an indeterminate amount of time, until the conflict comes to a negotiated settlement, or Ukraine chooses to stop fighting, or whatever end-state.
-No change to US or Russian strategic force posture in light of Russian suspension of New START participation.
-When asked if HIMARS ammunition includes ATACMS or just GMLRS, not a clear answer [My take: I would bet it's just GMLRS and not ATACMS; I am pretty sure GMLRS supply has been listed like this before in these USAI and PDA announcements]

quote:

BRIGADIER GENERAL PAT RYDER: Hey, good afternoon, everybody. Happy Friday. Just a few things, and then we'll get right to your questions.

So as you're all aware, today marks the one-year anniversary of Russia's unprovoked war in Ukraine, and to quote Secretary Austin's statement issued earlier today, quote, "This solemn anniversary is an opportunity for all who believe in freedom, rules and sovereignty to recommit ourselves to supporting Ukraine's brave defenders for the long haul, and recall that the stakes of Russia's war stretch far beyond Ukraine. Alongside our international allies and partners, we remain committed to supporting the Ukrainian people with the security assistance they need to defend their nation and take back their sovereign territory, and we will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes."

In another demonstration of our enduring commitment, earlier today, the Department of Defense announced $2 billion in additional security assistance for Ukraine under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. The security assistance package reaffirms the steadfast support of the United States for Ukraine by committing additional unmanned aerial systems and counter-UAS and electronic warfare detection equipment, as well as critical ammunition stocks for artillery and precision fires capabilities that will bolster Ukraine's ability to repel Russian aggression. For additional details, I'd refer you to our press release located on Defense.gov.

Also today, the secretary spoke by phone with Ukraine's minister of defense, Oleksii Reznikov. Secretary Austin praised Ukraine's courage and sacrifice that has inspired and rallied the international community to support its efforts to push back against Russian aggression, and he also provided an update on U.S. security assistance efforts, and a readout of that call is available on the DOD website.

...

And with that, we'll go to your questions. Start with Associated Press, Lita.

Q: Thank you. Two things. Number one, the U.S. has talked quite a bit about warning China against providing any aid, lethal aid to Russia. Given that, has the department seen any indication so far of any type of aid, particularly lethal aid, going from China to Russia, or any indications that such is actually happening?

...

GEN. RYDER: Sure. Thanks, Lita. So on your first question in regards to China and the potential for providing lethal aid to Ukraine, we haven't seen them provide lethal aid to Ukraine -- excuse me -- to Russia yet, but we also have noticed that they haven't taken it off the table. And so you've heard Secretary Austin, Secretary Blinken and others warn China about the implications of providing lethal assistance to Russia, to include needlessly extending this conflict and the suffering of the Ukrainian people. I would say, ironically, China's recent peace plan proposal includes respecting the sovereignty of all countries, so one would hope that they mean it and respect Ukraine's right to exist, versus potentially providing lethal aid intended to kill innocent Ukrainians and erase their country. So we'll continue to monitor that closely.

...

...

Q: Thanks for your time. Wanted to drill down a bit if we can into the USAI package announced today, particularly the power counter UAS estimate. Looks like we're going to see the Switchblade 600 which, at least to my knowledge and if you can clarify that'd be helpful, have not been a part of the package previously.

How quickly do you think that might find its way to a battlefield, and is the time it's taken to get it there a function of it simply not being available more quickly or something else?

GEN. RYDER: Sure. So for, as you highlight, given that these are USAI, these are all capability that we will go to industry to help produce.

I don't have a timeline in terms of the delivery time, other than as has been the case, we'll continue to work very closely with industry to try to get them there as quickly as we can.

I'll just leave it at that.

Q: More loosely, is the anticipation that it would be there in time for the offensive this spring?

GEN. RYDER. I don't think that would be the case. Again, we're already providing them with a significant amount of capabilities coming from PDA along with the international community to get them the capabilities they need for the springtime. But again, this is a fight that will continue to be tough, and so we want to ensure not only are we meeting their immediate needs, but we're also meeting their medium and long-term needs.

And so, again, we're going to rush to get these capabilities there as quickly as we can.

Thanks. Go to Joe.

Q: Thanks, Pat. Just staying on Ukraine aid, there are a number of categories of aid where we didn't get the specificity. You talked about HIMARS ammunition, but HIMARS can take GMLRS or ATACMS, and I just wanted to see if you could be specific about what kind of HIMARS ammunition was part of the package, what kind of laser-guided rockets, and any specificity you can give around the Counter-UAS Systems that were included?

GEN. RYDER: Yes, so on the specific Counter-UAS Systems, I'm not going to get more specific, just for operation security reasons.

In the packages you highlight, the laser-guided rocket systems, those are advanced precision kill weapon systems, so essentially the ability to convert unguided rockets into precision-guided munitions, which can be operated from various launchers that we're providing to the Ukrainians.

So that's about as specific as I'm going to be able to get.

Q: And then on the HIMARS ammunition, is that just GMLRS or is that something else?

GEN. RYDER: Well, I'll have to go back and take a look. I'm going to presuppose that if we're not including it in there, it's probably for operation security reasons. That said, I'll take your question back and we'll see what we can provide.

Q: And just in terms of the -- because there are a number of drone systems, is there something happening on the battlefield now that's requiring that as part of the USAI package?

GEN. RYDER: I think it's important to step back and look at the security assistance that we're providing holistically, right? So it's not episodic, one individual battle or one individual situation at a time. It's essentially a meshing together a variety of capabilities to give the Ukrainians a variety of things that they need to be successful, to include air defense -ground-based air defense, to include armor capability, to include artillery, the ammunition that they need, the communication, command, and control capability that they need.

So as the Department of Defense approaches meeting Ukraine security assistance needs, it's part of a broader framework of working with them in terms of meeting those requirements as quickly as we can through the means that we have available to us.

And it's not just the U.S., again, and I know you know that. It's part of an international tapestry, so to speak, to provide those capabilities.

So each of these is going to meet a capability that the Ukrainians have asked for, but again, the key word being capability. The platform is going to help meet a capability need.

The other aspect of that is the training piece, which we've talked about before. So the equipment plus the training, which includes operations, maintenance, and sustainment, gives the Ukrainians the capabilities they need not only to defend, but also to go on the offensive on their timeline in order to change the equation on the battlefield.

...

Q: Kind of flowing off that, this morning, several former NATO Supreme Allied Commanders urged the U.S. to do everything they can for Ukraine, to dig deeper. I was curious your reaction to that? And what more could we be doing right now?

GEN. RYDER: Yeah, I think that that message echoes largely what Secretary Austin said at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, that we do need to, as an international community, dig deeper and work harder, work faster to ensure that Ukraine gets the security assistance that it needs to be successful on the battlefield.

Q: Does "dig deeper" mean sending additional capabilities, equipment? What do you take from that, in terms of what we could do more?

GEN. RYDER: So I think we are, again, as evidenced by today's announcement, and we're going to continue to consult closely with Ukraine and with our international allies and partners to ensure that Ukraine has the assistance that it needs to be successful. Thank you.

...

Q: Yeah, hi, sir. In addition to Iran's request for fighter jets and combat helicopters from Russia, the White House announced today that Russia has offered Iran cooperation on missiles, electronics, and air defense in exchange for Iran's support for the war effort. Are we talking about potential purchases here? Is this co-production? And can you get into any specifics on platforms?

GEN. RYDER: Yeah, I really can't, beyond, again, what you highlighted, that we know that Iran is pursuing a deeper security cooperation relationship with Russia for obvious reasons. And throughout this campaign, we've seen sort of that transactional interaction between Russia, as they seek more munitions, as they seek drone capability. We know that they've been interested in ballistic missile capability, for example.

We know that they've been looking to advance that relationship with Iran. And again, we know that Iran is looking to advance that relationship with Russia, which, again, says a lot about the kinds of measures that Russia is finding itself having to resort to, not able to depend on its own defense industry, losing suppliers and partners as a result of their actions. And so it's also a statement on what we've said before about Iran being a destabilizing influence, not only in the Middle East but exporting terror to places like Ukraine.

So again, we'll continue to monitor that closely but I don't have any additional details to provide.

Let me go over here and then we'll come back here.

Q: Thank you, General. The Ukrainian President said just the other day that there's not going to be any dialogue with Mr. Putin and he can't be trusted, while the Russian President says that they have to accept the new realities on the ground. And the United States rhetoric is that Mr. Putin could end this war if he wanted to in a heartbeat.

There seems to be a deadlock here, right, so can you see the United States militarily and financially supporting Ukraine for the next half a decade perhaps? Because it looks like a deadlock that no one can break at the moment. What's your thought on that?

GEN. RYDER: Yeah, so I'm not going to try to predict the future. I'm going to focus on the facts that we have in front of us, and the facts are that Russia invaded its peaceful, democratic, sovereign neighbor and that it tried to eliminate Ukraine as a country and Ukraine is defending itself and we're going to help Ukraine defend itself, alongside the international community.

And so ultimately, at the end of the day, we're not going to dictate to Ukraine when it should stop fighting. We wouldn't want someone to tell us that and we're not going to tell them when to stop fighting. We're going to focus on supporting them and giving -- putting them in the best position possible so that when they determine it's time to negotiate or when it's time to stop fighting, they'll have the strongest possible hand available. And so I'll just leave it at that.

Q: ... I want to follow-up on that -- so it's not a figure of speech, I think, when the United States administration says "for as long as it takes." It's literally for as long as it takes, the war goes on, right?

GEN. RYDER: Yeah, so the question here is what happens next if Russia is allowed to succeed, right? It's not going to stop at Ukraine and it's going to further embolden other authoritarian regimes, in terms of what they can accomplish simply by using force to eliminate countries around them.

And so I think what we would see is an increase in the cost of trying to defend democracy, I think what we would see is an increase in needless suffering and innocent lives lost, and the extinguishing of freedom and democracy in countries that are unable to defend themselves.

So again, as the President has said, as Secretary Austin has said, we are committed to supporting Ukraine in their fight because the implications -- not only is it the right thing to do but the implications extend well beyond Ukraine, in terms of what it means for the international community and what it means for democracy and what it means for freedom. Thank you.

...

All right, we've got time for one more. We'll go to Kasim?

Q: General, also, Russia recently announced that they are going -- they suspended participation in the New START agreement. Do you -- do you have any concern with respect to that? And is there any posture changes in Russian nuclear force posture?

GEN. RYDER: Sure. So we think that it's unfortunate that they've decided to suspend their participation in the New START Treaty. It's irresponsible, given the potential implications here of what we're talking about.

But in regards to Russian strategic forces' posture, we have not seen any indication that they have changed, nor have we changed our posture. Thank you.

The USAI items mentioned:

# ? Feb 25, 2023 01:04

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

That CyberLux K8 UAS seemingly has 0 Google results predating this announcement. Probably a camera drone, but still interesting to see them just drop blue sky models like that.

# ? Feb 25, 2023 02:06

Natty Ninefingers: Feb 17, 2011

cinci zoo sniper posted:

That CyberLux K8 UAS seemingly has 0 Google results predating this announcement. Probably a camera drone, but still interesting to see them just drop blue sky models like that.

That company definitely has some fun with their names. It�s probably not it�s planned use case, but my inner four year old hopes their WHOOPMASTER drone ends up in Ukraine jury rigged to drop dildos on mobniks.

# ? Feb 25, 2023 02:30

TK-42-1: Oct 30, 2013; looks like we have a bad transmitter

e: App being weird and not refreshing threads until I post pages late

TK-42-1 fucked around with this message at 03:14 on Feb 25, 2023

# ? Feb 25, 2023 03:11

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

Hello, if you are joining or re-joining this thread after the closure of the GBS Ukraine thread, please be aware that we continue to do our best to maintain the groundrules, precedents, and overall thread culture that cinci zoo sniper built with the thread regulars. fatherboxx is the thread IK and I and sometimes other mods will be watching the thread as well.

Please take a little time to at least skim the OP and, if in doubt, lurk for a bit.

# ? Feb 25, 2023 03:54

Ynglaur: Oct 9, 2013; The Malta Conference, anyone?

cinci zoo sniper posted:

That CyberLux K8 UAS seemingly has 0 Google results predating this announcement. Probably a camera drone, but still interesting to see them just drop blue sky models like that.

Yeah, that one surprised me too. I was like, "What the hell is that?"

# ? Feb 25, 2023 03:58

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 26, 2024 23:59

Play: Apr 25, 2006; Strong stroll for a mangy stray

They closed the gbs Ukraine thread because a bunch of loving tankies and obvious concern trolls cried nonstop about it.

This thread is good but that one was perfect for just getting a quick, low investment daily update. Posters were personally translating articles, providing daily updates, giving local perspectives etc. For someone who regularly browsed both this thread and that one, what an absolute loving joke. Hopefully the same crybabies don't come for this one next.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Feb 25, 2023 04:02

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > War in Ukraine: thread feedback session open unttil Saturday (i'll regret this)

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